Burnley v Newcastle United — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Tuesday 30 December 2025 · ENG-Premier League · 2526
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
15 – 20
On target
3 – 7
Shots in box
8 – 13
xG per shot
0.09 – 0.17
Set-piece xG
0.00 – 0.44
Goals − xG
-0.33 – -0.45
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Burnley win
21.5%
Draw
23.7%
Newcastle United win
54.8%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Burnley are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.4 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
LDLLLLLDLD last 10
scored 6
from 10.4 xG
conceded 19
from 20.9 xG
Newcastle United are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LLLWDWLDWD last 10
scored 15
from 14.3 xG
conceded 14
from 19.1 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.01–1.76 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.01–2.18 | 1-2 10% | 62% | 56% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Burnley 1.33 xGNewcastle United 3.45 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Burnley attacking right
Newcastle United attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1' |
 Newcastle United |
Joelinton | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 6' |
Newcastle United |
Bruno Guimarães | 0.76 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 6' |
Newcastle United |
Harvey Barnes | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Joelinton |
| 6' |
Newcastle United |
Yoane Wissa | 0.18 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 6' |
Newcastle United |
Yoane Wissa | 0.91 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 21' |
 Burnley |
Marcus Edwards | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Florentino Luís |
| 22' |
Burnley |
Josh Laurent | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Armando Broja |
| 22' |
Burnley |
Lucas Pires | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Marcus Edwards |
| 28' |
Newcastle United |
Yoane Wissa | 0.19 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Bruno Guimarães |
| 32' |
Newcastle United |
Anthony Gordon | 0.03 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Fabian Schär |
| 32' |
Newcastle United |
Fabian Schär | 0.03 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 32' |
Newcastle United |
Malick Thiaw | 0.08 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 36' |
Newcastle United |
Yoane Wissa | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 37' |
Newcastle United |
Bruno Guimarães | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Harvey Barnes |
| 37' |
Newcastle United |
Harvey Barnes | 0.33 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Bruno Guimarães |
| 39' |
Burnley |
Armando Broja | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Josh Laurent |
| 39' |
Burnley |
Marcus Edwards | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Loum Tchaouna |
| 39' |
Burnley |
Marcus Edwards | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Lucas Pires |
| 42' |
Newcastle United |
Lewis Hall | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 42' |
Newcastle United |
Sandro Tonali | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 45' |
Burnley |
Loum Tchaouna | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Lucas Pires |
| 49' |
Burnley |
Loum Tchaouna | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Lucas Pires |
| 54' |
Burnley |
Loum Tchaouna | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Josh Laurent |
| 55' |
Newcastle United |
Anthony Gordon | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Bruno Guimarães |
| 58' |
Burnley |
Marcus Edwards | 0.42 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Armando Broja |
| 60' |
Burnley |
Josh Laurent | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Shot On Post | Lucas Pires |
| 64' |
Newcastle United |
Lewis Hall | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Joelinton |
| 67' |
Burnley |
Loum Tchaouna | 0.24 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Marcus Edwards |
| 71' |
Burnley |
Lucas Pires | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Marcus Edwards |
| 77' |
Newcastle United |
Malick Thiaw | 0.09 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Joelinton |
| 78' |
Newcastle United |
Jacob Murphy | 0.33 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Lewis Hall |
| 84' |
Burnley |
Lucas Pires | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Chimuanya Ugochukwu |
| 85' |
Newcastle United |
Sandro Tonali | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Joelinton |
| 92' |
Newcastle United |
Bruno Guimarães | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 94' |
Burnley |
Ashley Barnes | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Josh Laurent |
Players
Burnley
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Edwards FWR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 0.61 | 0.33 | 0.99 |
| Lucas Pires DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0.12 | 0.12 | 0.36 |
| Josh Laurent DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.09 | 0.23 | 0.33 |
| Armando Broja FW | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.06 | 0.46 | 0.56 |
| Florentino Luís MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.88 |
| Hjalmar Ekdal DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| Chimuanya Ugochukwu MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.38 |
| Kyle Walker DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.52 |
| Martin Dubravka GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Loum Tchaouna FWL | 79 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.34 | 0.07 | 0.87 |
| Bashir Humphreys Sub | 76 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.23 |
| Maxime Estève DC | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jacob Bruun Larsen Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ashley Barnes Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Mike Trésor Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Newcastle United
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bruno Guimarães MC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0.81 | 0.61 | 1.24 |
| Malick Thiaw DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.17 | 0.00 | 0.42 |
| Lewis Hall DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.33 | 0.83 |
| Joelinton MC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0.09 | 0.28 | 0.70 |
| Sandro Tonali MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.38 |
| Fabian Schär DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.42 |
| Nick Pope GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Lewis Miley DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.36 |
| Yoane Wissa FW | 85 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1.34 | 0.00 | 1.48 |
| Anthony Gordon FWL | 85 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.42 |
| Harvey Barnes FWR | 77 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.43 | 0.04 | 0.46 |
| Jacob Murphy Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.33 | 0.00 | 0.35 |
| Jacob Ramsey Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Nick Woltemade Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Joe Willock Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |