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Burnley v Sunderland — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 23 August 2025 · ENG-Premier League · 2526

Premier League xG

2–0
1.00 – 1.12 xG
Shots
7 – 9
On target
2 – 1
Shots in box
4 – 6
xG per shot
0.14 – 0.12
Set-piece xG
0.02 – 0.60
Goals − xG
+1.00 – -1.12
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.00.30.60.91.30'15'30'45'60'75'90'Josh Cullen 46' — goalJaidon Anthony 87' — goal
Burnley 1.00 xGSunderland 1.12 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Eliezer Mayenda 3' — Saved Shot (0.53 xG, Set Piece)Hannibal Mejbri 13' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, Set Piece)Chemsdine Talbi 13' — Missed Shot (0.31 xG, Open Play)Chimuanya Ugochukwu 32' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Granit Xhaka 41' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Josh Cullen 46' — Goal (0.05 xG, Open Play)Jaidon Anthony 49' — Missed Shot (0.29 xG, Open Play)Trai Hume 50' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Jacob Bruun Larsen 52' — Missed Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Omar Alderete 80' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, From Corner)Marc Guiu 81' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Jaidon Anthony 87' — Goal (0.48 xG, Open Play)Patrick Roberts 90' — Blocked Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Loum Tchaouna 95' — Shot On Post (0.05 xG, Open Play)Enzo Le Fée 98' — Blocked Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Omar Alderete 99' — Blocked Shot (0.05 xG, From Corner)
Burnley attacking right Sunderland attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
3' Sunderland Eliezer Mayenda 0.53 Set Piece Right Foot Saved Shot Dan Ballard
13' Burnley Hannibal Mejbri 0.02 Set Piece Right Foot Blocked Shot Hjalmar Ekdal
13' Sunderland Chemsdine Talbi 0.31 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Simon Adingra
32' Burnley Chimuanya Ugochukwu 0.04 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot
41' Sunderland Granit Xhaka 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Chemsdine Talbi
46' Burnley Josh Cullen 0.05 Open Play Right Foot Goal Jaidon Anthony
49' Burnley Jaidon Anthony 0.29 Open Play Missed Shot Hannibal Mejbri
50' Sunderland Trai Hume 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Habib Diarra
52' Burnley Jacob Bruun Larsen 0.07 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Chimuanya Ugochukwu
80' Sunderland Omar Alderete 0.02 From Corner Left Foot Blocked Shot
81' Sunderland Marc Guiu 0.04 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Granit Xhaka
87' Burnley Jaidon Anthony 0.48 Open Play Left Foot Goal Josh Cullen
90' Sunderland Patrick Roberts 0.07 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Trai Hume
95' Burnley Loum Tchaouna 0.05 Open Play Left Foot Shot On Post Zian Flemming
98' Sunderland Enzo Le Fée 0.05 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot
99' Sunderland Omar Alderete 0.05 From Corner Left Foot Blocked Shot Enzo Le Fée

Players

Burnley

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Jaidon Anthony AML 90 1 1 2 1 0.77 0.05 0.86
Josh Cullen DMC 90 1 1 1 1 0.05 0.48 0.64
Lyle Foster FW 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.04
Martin Dubravka GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.04
Kyle Walker DR 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.59
Quilindschy Hartman DL 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.09
Hjalmar Ekdal DC 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.02 0.07
Hannibal Mejbri AMC 87 0 0 1 1 0.02 0.29 0.41
Maxime Estève DC 87 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.09
Jacob Bruun Larsen AMR 73 0 0 1 0 0.07 0.00 0.41
Chimuanya Ugochukwu DMC 73 0 0 1 1 0.04 0.07 0.45
Josh Laurent Sub 17 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Oliver Sonne Sub 17 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Loum Tchaouna Sub 3 0 0 1 0 0.05 0.00 0.54
Joe Worrall Sub 3 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Zian Flemming Sub 1 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.05 0.05

Sunderland

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Omar Alderete DC 90 0 0 2 0 0.07 0.00 0.07
Trai Hume DR 90 0 0 1 1 0.03 0.07 0.09
Granit Xhaka MC 90 0 0 1 1 0.02 0.04 0.16
Reinildo DL 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Noah Sadiki MC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.38
Robin Roefs GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.31
Habib Diarra MC 84 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.03 0.03
Jenson Seelt Sub 82 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Eliezer Mayenda FW 67 0 0 1 0 0.53 0.00 0.00
Chemsdine Talbi FWR 67 0 0 1 1 0.31 0.02 0.33
Simon Adingra FWL 67 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.31 0.31
Patrick Roberts Sub 23 0 0 1 0 0.07 0.00 0.11
Enzo Le Fée Sub 23 0 0 1 1 0.05 0.05 0.05
Wilson Isidor Sub 23 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Dan Ballard DC 8 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.53 0.00
Marc Guiu Sub 6 0 0 1 0 0.04 0.00 0.04
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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