Cəbrayıl v Baku Sportinq — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Thursday 8 October 2026 · AZE-First Division · 2627
AZE-First Division
results-only Prediction generated
AI prediction
ai-blend v1.0 dailyRaw model output; no calibration record for this fixture's bands yet.
Top 5 scorelines
- 1-1 12.6%
- 1-2 9.5%
- 0-1 8.6%
- 0-2 8.1%
- 0-0 7.0%
Goals
| Over 2.5 | 53.9% | Under 2.5 | 46.1% |
| BTTS yes | 57.1% | BTTS no | 42.9% |
| Cəbrayıl 1+ | 69.0% | Cəbrayıl 2+ | 32.7% |
| Baku Sportinq 1+ | 81.1% | Baku Sportinq 2+ | 49.5% |
Expected goals 1.17 – 1.66. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.
Footing
Positive factors
- Baku Sportinq have created 1.35 xG a match over their last five while Cəbrayıl have allowed 1.35.
- Away from home Baku Sportinq average 1.35 xG a match.
Risk factors
- Data quality is 20/100, so this price rests on less than the model would like.
- Cəbrayıl have only 0 matches on record.
- Baku Sportinq have only 0 matches on record.
Why the model thinks this
The price
Baku Sportinq have an estimated 47.7% win probability, against 26.5% for the draw and 25.8% for Cəbrayıl. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.17 for Cəbrayıl and 1.66 for Baku Sportinq.
Why Cəbrayıl
Cəbrayıl have created 1.35 xG a match over their last five while Baku Sportinq have allowed 1.35. At home Cəbrayıl average 1.35 xG a match.
Why the draw is live
The draw sits at 26.5%.
Why Baku Sportinq can win
Baku Sportinq have created 1.35 xG a match over their last five while Cəbrayıl have allowed 1.35. Away from home Baku Sportinq average 1.35 xG a match.
Key players
No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.
Availability
No lineup on record for Cəbrayıl, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Baku Sportinq, so availability is unknown.
The matchup, as far as the data reaches
Cəbrayıl: 50% possession, 12.0 shots a match, 12.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Baku Sportinq: 50% possession, 12.0 shots a match, 12.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.
Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-09 15:30 · team_stats 2026-09-09 06:03 · availability 2026-09-09 15:32 · prediction 2026-09-09 09:54 ·
Baku Sportinq are the model's most likely outcome at 47.7%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 12.6%. Confidence 21/100, data quality 20/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.
Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.
Was this pick made in advance?
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend | 1.17–1.66 | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| dc-xg | 1.13–1.86 | 1-1 12% | 57% | 58% |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.