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Cagliari v Bologna — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Tuesday 29 October 2024 · ITA-Serie A · 2425

Serie A xG

0–2
1.19 – 0.87 xG
Shots
14 – 11
On target
2 – 4
Shots in box
10 – 8
xG per shot
0.08 – 0.08
Set-piece xG
0.22 – 0.12
Goals − xG
-1.19 – +1.13
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.00.30.71.01.30'15'30'45'60'75'90'Riccardo Orsolini 34' — goalJens Odgaard 50' — goal
Cagliari 1.19 xGBologna 0.87 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Nadir Zortea 0' — Blocked Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Gianluca Gaetano 3' — Blocked Shot (0.41 xG, Open Play)Razvan Marin 7' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Juan Miranda 13' — Blocked Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Gianluca Gaetano 13' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Set Piece)Nikola Moro 14' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, From Corner)Riccardo Orsolini 16' — Saved Shot (0.12 xG, Open Play)Riccardo Orsolini 18' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Riccardo Orsolini 30' — Missed Shot (0.26 xG, Open Play)Riccardo Orsolini 34' — Goal (0.07 xG, Open Play)Jhon Lucumí 36' — Missed Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Roberto Piccoli 38' — Saved Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Nicolas Viola 42' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Riccardo Orsolini 47' — Blocked Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Roberto Piccoli 47' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Dan Ndoye 48' — Saved Shot (0.11 xG, Open Play)Jens Odgaard 50' — Goal (0.02 xG, Open Play)Adam Obert 56' — Missed Shot (0.05 xG, Set Piece)Gianluca Gaetano 57' — Saved Shot (0.08 xG, Open Play)Gianluca Gaetano 57' — Missed Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Roberto Piccoli 57' — Missed Shot (0.30 xG, Open Play)Adam Obert 64' — Missed Shot (0.01 xG, From Corner)Sam Beukema 75' — Missed Shot (0.10 xG, Set Piece)Gianluca Lapadula 78' — Blocked Shot (0.05 xG, From Corner)Gianluca Lapadula 78' — Blocked Shot (0.08 xG, From Corner)
Cagliari attacking right Bologna attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
0' Cagliari Nadir Zortea 0.01 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot
3' Cagliari Gianluca Gaetano 0.41 Open Play Blocked Shot
7' Cagliari Razvan Marin 0.03 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot
13' Bologna Juan Miranda 0.05 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot
13' Cagliari Gianluca Gaetano 0.02 Set Piece Right Foot Missed Shot Nicolas Viola
14' Bologna Nikola Moro 0.02 From Corner Right Foot Missed Shot
16' Bologna Riccardo Orsolini 0.12 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot
18' Bologna Riccardo Orsolini 0.03 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot
30' Bologna Riccardo Orsolini 0.26 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Dan Ndoye
34' Bologna Riccardo Orsolini 0.07 Open Play Right Foot Goal Dan Ndoye
36' Bologna Jhon Lucumí 0.05 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Dan Ndoye
38' Cagliari Roberto Piccoli 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Nadir Zortea
42' Cagliari Nicolas Viola 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Razvan Marin
47' Bologna Riccardo Orsolini 0.05 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Jens Odgaard
47' Cagliari Roberto Piccoli 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Nicolas Viola
48' Bologna Dan Ndoye 0.11 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Jens Odgaard
50' Bologna Jens Odgaard 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Goal Jhon Lucumí
56' Cagliari Adam Obert 0.05 Set Piece Missed Shot Nicolas Viola
57' Cagliari Gianluca Gaetano 0.08 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Adam Obert
57' Cagliari Gianluca Gaetano 0.06 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot
57' Cagliari Roberto Piccoli 0.30 Open Play Missed Shot Razvan Marin
64' Cagliari Adam Obert 0.01 From Corner Missed Shot Mattia Felici
75' Bologna Sam Beukema 0.10 Set Piece Right Foot Missed Shot
78' Cagliari Gianluca Lapadula 0.05 From Corner Blocked Shot Razvan Marin
78' Cagliari Gianluca Lapadula 0.08 From Corner Blocked Shot Razvan Marin

Players

Bologna

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Riccardo Orsolini AMR 90 1 0 5 0 0.53 0.00 0.53
Sam Beukema DC 90 0 0 1 0 0.10 0.00 0.16
Jhon Lucumí DC 90 0 1 1 1 0.05 0.02 0.12
Juan Miranda DL 90 0 0 1 0 0.05 0.00 0.43
Remo Freuler DMC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.33
Lukasz Skorupski GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.02
Dan Ndoye AML 88 0 1 1 3 0.11 0.38 0.54
Santiago Castro FW 88 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.36
Nikola Moro DMC 82 0 0 1 0 0.02 0.00 0.22
Lorenzo De Silvestri DR 82 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.28
Jens Odgaard AMC 69 1 0 1 2 0.02 0.16 0.18
Tommaso Pobega Sub 21 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Stefan Posch Sub 8 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Giovanni Fabbian Sub 8 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Emil Holm Sub 2 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Thijs Dallinga Sub 2 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00

Cagliari

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Roberto Piccoli FW 90 0 0 3 0 0.35 0.00 0.35
Razvan Marin MC 90 0 0 1 4 0.03 0.46 0.38
Sebastiano Luperto DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.10
José Luis Palomino DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.10
Simone Scuffet GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.08
Gabriele Zappa DR 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.13
Gianluca Gaetano ML 74 0 0 4 0 0.56 0.00 0.54
Adam Obert DL 74 0 0 2 1 0.07 0.08 0.40
Nicolas Viola FW 60 0 0 1 3 0.02 0.10 0.05
Nadir Zortea MR 60 0 0 1 1 0.01 0.03 0.12
Matteo Prati MC 60 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.10
Gianluca Lapadula Sub 30 0 0 2 0 0.13 0.00 0.00
Ndary Adopo Sub 30 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Mattia Felici Sub 30 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.01 0.00
Tommaso Augello Sub 16 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Zito Sub 16 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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