Cagliari v Como — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 7 March 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2526
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
8 – 8
On target
3 – 2
Shots in box
4 – 4
xG per shot
0.07 – 0.10
Set-piece xG
0.03 – 0.16
Goals − xG
+0.47 – +1.21
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Cagliari win
17.4%
Draw
25.4%
Como win
57.2%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Cagliari are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.8 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 7.4 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LWWWLWWWDL last 10
scored 10
from 15.8 xG
conceded 11
from 18.4 xG
Como are finishing below their chances — 4.0 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 6.5 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWWDWWWLDW last 10
scored 18
from 22.0 xG
conceded 8
from 14.5 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 0.78–1.63 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.02–1.75 | 1-1 11% | 52% | 53% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Cagliari 0.53 xGComo 0.79 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Cagliari attacking right
Como attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13' |
 Como |
Lucas Da Cunha | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 13' |
Como |
Martin Baturina | 0.36 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 17' |
 Cagliari |
Ndary Adopo | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Sulemana |
| 30' |
Cagliari |
Michael Folorunsho | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Sebastiano Esposito |
| 37' |
Cagliari |
Michael Folorunsho | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 50' |
Como |
Jesús Rodriguez | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 55' |
Cagliari |
Adam Obert | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Marco Palestra |
| 55' |
Cagliari |
Sebastiano Esposito | 0.28 | Open Play | — | Goal | Adam Obert |
| 58' |
Como |
Nico Paz | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Mergim Vojvoda |
| 63' |
Como |
Álvaro Morata | 0.09 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jacobo Ramón |
| 74' |
Como |
Nico Paz | 0.07 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Álvaro Morata |
| 75' |
Como |
Lucas Da Cunha | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Ignace Van der Brempt |
| 81' |
Cagliari |
Semih Kiliçsoy | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Marco Palestra |
| 85' |
Cagliari |
Ndary Adopo | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Yael Trepy |
| 90' |
Como |
Álvaro Morata | 0.07 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 92' |
Cagliari |
Yael Trepy | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Sulemana |
Players
Cagliari
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ndary Adopo MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Michael Folorunsho FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Adam Obert DL | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.28 | 0.43 |
| Alberto Dossena DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Elia Caprile GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Sulemana MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| Marco Palestra FWR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.12 |
| Sebastiano Esposito FWL | 81 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.28 | 0.02 | 0.33 |
| Juan Rodríguez DC | 81 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Joseph Liteta MC | 81 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Zé Pedro DR | 76 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Gabriele Zappa Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Semih Kiliçsoy Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Yael Trepy Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.06 | 0.08 |
| Riyad Idrissi Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Leonardo Pavoletti Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Como
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Da Cunha DMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Jesús Rodriguez AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Jean Butez GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jacobo Ramón DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.07 |
| Ignace Van der Brempt DR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.07 |
| Marc-Oliver Kempf DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Martin Baturina AMC | 84 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.36 | 0.00 | 0.38 |
| Nico Paz AMR | 84 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Alberto Moreno DL | 84 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Tasos Douvikas FW | 65 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Mergim Vojvoda Sub | 55 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.06 |
| Máximo Perrone DMC | 35 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Álvaro Morata Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.16 | 0.07 | 0.09 |
| Diego Carlos Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Sergi Roberto Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Álex Valle Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |