Cagliari v Cremonese — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 11 April 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2526
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
17 – 5
On target
5 – 2
Shots in box
10 – 4
xG per shot
0.08 – 0.05
Set-piece xG
0.34 – 0.13
Goals − xG
-0.43 – -0.27
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Cagliari win
44.5%
Draw
29.9%
Cremonese win
25.7%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Cagliari are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.8 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 7.4 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LWWWLWWWDL last 10
scored 10
from 15.8 xG
conceded 11
from 18.4 xG
Cremonese are conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 5.2 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
LWLLDLLWWL last 10
scored 10
from 8.8 xG
conceded 17
from 11.8 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.25–0.88 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.49–1.10 | 1-1 12% | 48% | 52% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Cagliari 1.43 xGCremonese 0.27 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Cagliari attacking right
Cremonese attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2' |
 Cagliari |
Marco Palestra | 0.04 | From Corner | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 8' |
 Cremonese |
Giuseppe Pezzella | 0.01 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Federico Baschirotto |
| 20' |
Cremonese |
David Okereke | 0.11 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Jari Vandeputte |
| 22' |
Cremonese |
Romano Floriani | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Giuseppe Pezzella |
| 25' |
Cremonese |
Federico Bonazzoli | 0.02 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Giuseppe Pezzella |
| 33' |
Cagliari |
Michael Folorunsho | 0.02 | Set Piece | — | Saved Shot | Sebastiano Esposito |
| 39' |
Cagliari |
Gianluca Gaetano | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Gennaro Borrelli |
| 39' |
Cagliari |
Michael Folorunsho | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 48' |
Cagliari |
Alessandro Deiola | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Sebastiano Esposito |
| 53' |
Cagliari |
Gennaro Borrelli | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Adam Obert |
| 53' |
Cremonese |
Federico Bonazzoli | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 56' |
Cagliari |
Alessandro Deiola | 0.05 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Yerry Mina |
| 56' |
Cagliari |
Sebastiano Esposito | 0.06 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 56' |
Cagliari |
Yerry Mina | 0.01 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Ndary Adopo |
| 59' |
Cagliari |
Yerry Mina | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Sebastiano Esposito |
| 60' |
Cagliari |
Paul Mendy | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Sebastiano Esposito |
| 62' |
Cagliari |
Sebastiano Esposito | 0.41 | Open Play | — | Goal | Zé Pedro |
| 72' |
Cagliari |
Alessandro Deiola | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 74' |
Cagliari |
Alessandro Deiola | 0.44 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Adam Obert |
| 75' |
Cagliari |
Alessandro Deiola | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Adam Obert |
| 75' |
Cagliari |
Sebastiano Esposito | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 81' |
Cagliari |
Marco Palestra | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Paul Mendy |
Players
Cagliari
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alessandro Deiola AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0.59 | 0.00 | 0.88 |
| Sebastiano Esposito AMR | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0.49 | 0.10 | 0.44 |
| Gianluca Gaetano DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.55 |
| Marco Palestra DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Yerry Mina DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| Adam Obert DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.52 | 0.86 |
| Elia Caprile GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Juan Rodríguez DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Michael Folorunsho AML | 64 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Gennaro Borrelli FW | 64 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Ndary Adopo Sub | 60 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.44 |
| Luca Mazzitelli DMC | 30 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Paul Mendy Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.06 | 0.48 |
| Zé Pedro Sub | 26 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.41 | 0.85 |
| Alberto Dossena Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Andrea Belotti Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Cremonese
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Federico Bonazzoli FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Giuseppe Pezzella DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.01 | 0.07 | 0.07 |
| Sebastiano Luperto DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Federico Baschirotto DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| Emil Audero GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Alberto Grassi MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| David Okereke FW | 81 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Warren Bondo MC | 81 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Filippo Terracciano DR | 76 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Romano Floriani MR | 71 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Jari Vandeputte ML | 71 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.05 |
| Antonio Sanabria Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Martín Payero Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Tommaso Barbieri Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Alessio Zerbin Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Milan Djuric Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |