Cagliari v Fiorentina — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 24 August 2025 · ITA-Serie A · 2526
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
14 – 4
On target
5 – 1
Shots in box
10 – 2
xG per shot
0.11 – 0.29
Set-piece xG
1.16 – 0.64
Goals − xG
-0.52 – -0.14
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Cagliari win
25.1%
Draw
28.7%
Fiorentina win
46.2%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Cagliari are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.1 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 6.0 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WLWDLWWWLW last 10
scored 10
from 15.1 xG
conceded 10
from 16.0 xG
Fiorentina are finishing below their chances — 3.8 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WDDLDWDLLL last 10
scored 6
from 9.8 xG
conceded 15
from 17.1 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.03–1.48 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.22–1.43 | 1-1 12% | 50% | 54% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Cagliari 1.52 xGFiorentina 1.14 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Cagliari attacking right
Fiorentina attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13' |
 Cagliari |
Gennaro Borrelli | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Sebastiano Esposito |
| 18' |
Cagliari |
Sebastiano Esposito | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Ndary Adopo |
| 21' |
Cagliari |
Michael Folorunsho | 0.07 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Sebastiano Esposito |
| 37' |
Cagliari |
Sebastiano Esposito | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 44' |
Cagliari |
Yerry Mina | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Ndary Adopo |
| 47' |
 Fiorentina |
Nicolo Fagioli | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 55' |
Cagliari |
Gennaro Borrelli | 0.59 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Adam Obert |
| 63' |
Cagliari |
Michael Folorunsho | 0.02 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Alessandro Deiola |
| 65' |
Cagliari |
Zito | 0.13 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Ndary Adopo |
| 67' |
Fiorentina |
Rolando Mandragora | 0.44 | Open Play | — | Goal | Albert Gudmundsson |
| 75' |
Fiorentina |
Moise Kean | 0.64 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Simon Sohm |
| 80' |
Cagliari |
Gianluca Gaetano | 0.08 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 82' |
Cagliari |
Gianluca Gaetano | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Luca Mazzitelli |
| 82' |
Cagliari |
Zito | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Gianluca Gaetano |
| 83' |
Fiorentina |
Jacopo Fazzini | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Rolando Mandragora |
| 84' |
Cagliari |
Zito | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Semih Kiliçsoy |
| 90' |
Cagliari |
Gabriele Zappa | 0.04 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Yerry Mina |
| 93' |
Cagliari |
Sebastiano Luperto | 0.31 | Set Piece | — | Goal | Gianluca Gaetano |
Players
Fiorentina
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moise Kean FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.64 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Nicolo Fagioli MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Simon Sohm MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.64 | 0.44 |
| Marin Pongracic DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Dodô DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.44 |
| David de Gea GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Robin Gosens DML | 80 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Albert Gudmundsson AMC | 75 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.44 | 0.44 |
| Pietro Comuzzo DC | 65 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Cher Ndour AMC | 49 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Luca Ranieri DC | 49 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Rolando Mandragora Sub | 41 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.44 | 0.03 | 0.47 |
| Mattia Viti Sub | 41 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Pablo Marí Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jacopo Fazzini Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Fabiano Parisi Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Cagliari
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sebastiano Luperto DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.31 | 0.00 | 0.23 |
| Michael Folorunsho FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Gabriele Zappa DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Yerry Mina DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.04 | 0.05 |
| Ndary Adopo MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.16 | 0.20 |
| Elia Caprile GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Gennaro Borrelli FW | 84 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.64 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Adam Obert DL | 78 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.59 | 0.03 |
| Alessandro Deiola MC | 77 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.01 |
| Sebastiano Esposito AMC | 64 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.06 | 0.13 | 0.07 |
| Matteo Prati MC | 64 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Zito Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.23 | 0.00 | 0.23 |
| Luca Mazzitelli Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| Gianluca Gaetano Sub | 13 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0.14 | 0.38 | 0.16 |
| Riyad Idrissi Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Semih Kiliçsoy Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.04 |