Cagliari v Internazionale — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 30 August 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2627
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
10 – 31
On target
0 – 6
Shots in box
5 – 25
xG per shot
0.03 – 0.13
Set-piece xG
0.16 – 0.58
Goals − xG
-0.32 – -2.97
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Cagliari win
16.2%
Draw
20.6%
Internazionale win
63.2%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Cagliari are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.8 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 7.4 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LWWWLWWWDL last 10
scored 10
from 15.8 xG
conceded 11
from 18.4 xG
Internazionale have scored 28 from 28.3 expected and conceded 13 from 12.7 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
WDDWWWWDWW last 10
scored 28
from 28.3 xG
conceded 13
from 12.7 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 0.90–2.00 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.05–2.08 | 1-2 10% | 61% | 57% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Cagliari 0.32 xGInternazionale 3.97 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Cagliari attacking right
Internazionale attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4' |
 Internazionale |
Lautaro Martínez | 0.12 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Federico Dimarco |
| 8' |
Internazionale |
Hakan Calhanoglu | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Nicolò Barella |
| 22' |
Internazionale |
Lautaro Martínez | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Francesco Pio Esposito |
| 24' |
Internazionale |
Manuel Akanji | 0.11 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Federico Dimarco |
| 25' |
Internazionale |
Nicolò Barella | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 27' |
Internazionale |
Federico Dimarco | 0.30 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Nicolò Barella |
| 28' |
Internazionale |
Alessandro Bastoni | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Hakan Calhanoglu |
| 28' |
Internazionale |
Benjamin Pavard | 0.04 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 28' |
Internazionale |
Francesco Pio Esposito | 0.10 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Alessandro Bastoni |
| 28' |
Internazionale |
Lautaro Martínez | 0.13 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 31' |
Internazionale |
Nicolò Barella | 0.28 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Alessandro Bastoni |
| 32' |
Internazionale |
Lautaro Martínez | 0.07 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Federico Dimarco |
| 34' |
Internazionale |
Lautaro Martínez | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 40' |
Internazionale |
Luis Henrique | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Lautaro Martínez |
| 43' |
Internazionale |
Federico Dimarco | 0.30 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Francesco Pio Esposito |
| 45' |
Internazionale |
Francesco Pio Esposito | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 48' |
 Cagliari |
Daniel Maldini | 0.06 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 49' |
Cagliari |
Jacopo Fazzini | 0.01 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 50' |
Internazionale |
Lautaro Martínez | 0.13 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Hakan Calhanoglu |
| 52' |
Internazionale |
Francesco Pio Esposito | 0.59 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Nicolò Barella |
| 56' |
Internazionale |
Hakan Calhanoglu | 0.04 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 57' |
Internazionale |
Francesco Pio Esposito | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Petar Sucic |
| 60' |
Cagliari |
Alieu Fadera | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Juan Rodríguez |
| 64' |
Internazionale |
Curtis Jones | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Nicolò Barella |
| 65' |
Internazionale |
Lautaro Martínez | 0.14 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Federico Dimarco |
| 66' |
Internazionale |
Lautaro Martínez | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Alessandro Bastoni |
| 69' |
Cagliari |
Alessandro Romano | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Juan Rodríguez |
| 75' |
Internazionale |
Alessandro Bastoni | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Federico Dimarco |
| 76' |
Cagliari |
Alieu Fadera | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Ndary Adopo |
| 76' |
Internazionale |
Marcus Thuram | 0.29 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Lautaro Martínez |
| 78' |
Internazionale |
Marcus Thuram | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Federico Dimarco |
| 79' |
Cagliari |
Adam Obert | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Alieu Fadera |
| 83' |
Cagliari |
Ndary Adopo | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 84' |
Cagliari |
Gennaro Borrelli | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Alessandro Romano |
| 85' |
Internazionale |
Lautaro Martínez | 0.25 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Piotr Zielinski |
| 86' |
Internazionale |
John Stones | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Federico Dimarco |
| 88' |
Internazionale |
Marcus Thuram | 0.13 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Benjamin Pavard |
| 88' |
Internazionale |
Piotr Zielinski | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 89' |
Cagliari |
Juan Rodríguez | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Ndary Adopo |
| 91' |
Cagliari |
Riccardo Ciervo | 0.05 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Ndary Adopo |
| 91' |
Internazionale |
Lautaro Martínez | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Alessandro Bastoni |
Players
Internazionale
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lautaro Martínez FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 2 | 1.13 | 0.34 | 1.64 |
| Federico Dimarco DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 0.60 | 0.68 | 1.62 |
| Nicolò Barella MC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0.34 | 0.96 | 2.43 |
| Alessandro Bastoni DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0.15 | 0.53 | 1.48 |
| Benjamin Pavard DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.13 | 1.84 |
| Josep Martínez GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| Luis Henrique DMR | 83 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.94 |
| Manuel Akanji DC | 70 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.98 |
| Francesco Pio Esposito FW | 67 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0.82 | 0.33 | 1.47 |
| Hakan Calhanoglu MC | 67 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.08 | 0.15 | 1.41 |
| Petar Sucic MC | 67 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.51 |
| Marcus Thuram Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.49 | 0.00 | 0.80 |
| Piotr Zielinski Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.25 | 0.63 |
| Curtis Jones Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.74 |
| John Stones Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Yann Bisseck Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Cagliari
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Obert DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Ndary Adopo AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.03 | 0.08 | 0.14 |
| Alessandro Romano DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.07 |
| Juan Rodríguez DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.02 | 0.05 | 0.04 |
| Elia Caprile GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Zé Pedro DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Alessandro Deiola DC | 85 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Daniel Maldini AMC | 80 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jacopo Fazzini AML | 59 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Harry Winks DMC | 59 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Paul Mendy FW | 59 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Alieu Fadera Sub | 31 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.07 | 0.11 |
| Raphael Kofler Sub | 31 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Kevin Omoruyi Sub | 31 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Gennaro Borrelli Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Riccardo Ciervo Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.02 |