Cagliari v Juventus — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 17 January 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2526
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
3 – 21
On target
1 – 5
Shots in box
3 – 10
xG per shot
0.06 – 0.04
Set-piece xG
0.13 – 0.35
Goals − xG
+0.82 – -0.87
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Cagliari win
17.0%
Draw
23.4%
Juventus win
59.6%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Cagliari are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.1 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 6.0 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WLWDLWWWLW last 10
scored 10
from 15.1 xG
conceded 10
from 16.0 xG
Juventus are finishing sharply below their chances — 7.5 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
WWDDWLDWWD last 10
scored 11
from 18.5 xG
conceded 6
from 6.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 0.79–1.73 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 0.86–1.84 | 0-1 12% | 50% | 48% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Cagliari 0.18 xGJuventus 0.87 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Cagliari attacking right
Juventus attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23' |
 Juventus |
Fabio Miretti | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jonathan Christian David |
| 24' |
Juventus |
Fabio Miretti | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 27' |
Juventus |
Teun Koopmeiners | 0.02 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Manuel Locatelli |
| 32' |
Juventus |
Fabio Miretti | 0.04 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Andrea Cambiaso |
| 33' |
Juventus |
Fabio Miretti | 0.03 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Andrea Cambiaso |
| 42' |
Juventus |
Manuel Locatelli | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Andrea Cambiaso |
| 48' |
 Cagliari |
Sebastiano Esposito | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Semih Kiliçsoy |
| 49' |
Cagliari |
Sebastiano Luperto | 0.10 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Sebastiano Esposito |
| 51' |
Juventus |
Fabio Miretti | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Manuel Locatelli |
| 51' |
Juventus |
Jonathan Christian David | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Andrea Cambiaso |
| 55' |
Juventus |
Andrea Cambiaso | 0.02 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Manuel Locatelli |
| 57' |
Juventus |
Kenan Yildiz | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 59' |
Juventus |
Lloyd Kelly | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Manuel Locatelli |
| 61' |
Juventus |
Kenan Yildiz | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 64' |
Cagliari |
Luca Mazzitelli | 0.02 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Goal | Gianluca Gaetano |
| 69' |
Juventus |
Edon Zhegrova | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Teun Koopmeiners |
| 72' |
Juventus |
Jonathan Christian David | 0.14 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Bremer |
| 78' |
Juventus |
Kenan Yildiz | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Weston McKennie |
| 83' |
Juventus |
Kenan Yildiz | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Bremer |
| 87' |
Juventus |
Teun Koopmeiners | 0.01 | Set Piece | — | Saved Shot | Edon Zhegrova |
| 89' |
Juventus |
Loïs Openda | 0.08 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 92' |
Juventus |
Bremer | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Kenan Yildiz |
| 93' |
Juventus |
Vasilije Adzic | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Kenan Yildiz |
| 95' |
Juventus |
Kephren Thuram | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | — |
Players
Cagliari
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sebastiano Luperto DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Luca Mazzitelli MC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Adam Obert DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Zé Pedro DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ndary Adopo MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Marco Palestra DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Gianluca Gaetano MC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| Elia Caprile GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Yerry Mina DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Sebastiano Esposito FW | 66 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| Semih Kiliçsoy FW | 56 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| Gennaro Borrelli Sub | 34 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Riyad Idrissi Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Juventus
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Christian David FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.21 | 0.01 | 0.12 |
| Kenan Yildiz AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0.14 | 0.13 | 0.33 |
| Bremer DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.10 | 0.19 | 0.19 |
| Teun Koopmeiners DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.02 | 0.18 |
| Lloyd Kelly DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.24 |
| Pierre Kalulu Kyatengwa DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Mattia Perin GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Andrea Cambiaso DL | 82 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0.02 | 0.17 | 0.10 |
| Weston McKennie AMR | 82 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.04 |
| Fabio Miretti AMC | 68 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0.19 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Manuel Locatelli DMC | 68 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0.02 | 0.08 | 0.04 |
| Loïs Openda Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Edon Zhegrova Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.18 |
| Kephren Thuram Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Francisco Conceição Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Vasilije Adzic Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.10 |