Cagliari v Juventus — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 11 October 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2627

Serie A xG Prediction generated 4 Sep 2026, 06:09 UTC

Cagliari

13:00 UTC

Juventus

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 8 Sep, 07:54 · 797h before kick-off

Cagliari win

19.1%

model 17.4%

Draw

22.1%

model 23.4%

Juventus win

58.7%

model 59.2%

192259

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (315 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

0-1 13.4%
0-2 11.7%
1-1 11.0%
1-2 9.6%
0-0 7.7%

Goals

Over 2.5	47.3%	Under 2.5	52.7%
BTTS yes	46.3%	BTTS no	53.7%
Cagliari 1+	56.1%	Cagliari 2+	19.9%
Juventus 1+	82.5%	Juventus 2+	52.0%

Expected goals 0.82 – 1.74. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

93/100

Data quality

90/100

Model agreement

98%

★ Best pick

Juventus (-0.5)

Asian handicap · usually 34%

57.2% fair odds 1.75

strong signal · 1040 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Juventus or draw (1UP)

Double chance 1UP · usually 66%

83.8% fair odds 1.19

moderate signal · 424 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Juventus carry the stronger rating, 1722 Elo against 1501.
Juventus have created 1.85 xG a match over their last five while Cagliari have allowed 1.59.
Away from home Juventus average 1.75 xG a match.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Juventus have an estimated 58.7% win probability, against 22.1% for the draw and 19.1% for Cagliari. Expected goals from the ensemble are 0.82 for Cagliari and 1.74 for Juventus.

Why Cagliari

Cagliari have created 1.51 xG a match over their last five while Juventus have allowed 0.63. Form is good: 2.40 points a match from the last five. At home Cagliari average 1.52 xG a match. Their last eleven was closer to full strength: Juventus were missing 1.42 expected goal involvements a match against 0.57.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 22.1%. Draws run at 27% in this competition.

Why Juventus can win

Juventus carry the stronger rating, 1722 Elo against 1501. Juventus have created 1.85 xG a match over their last five while Cagliari have allowed 1.59. Away from home Juventus average 1.75 xG a match.

Key players

Cagliari's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Sebastiano Esposito (0.33), Daniel Maldini (0.27), Paul Mendy (0.25). Juventus's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Kenan Yildiz (0.43), Dusan Vlahovic (0.38), Francisco Conceição (0.36).

Availability

1 of Cagliari's top three contributors did not start their last match. 36% of Cagliari's last eleven are new to the club this window. 2 of Juventus's top three contributors did not start their last match. 36% of Juventus's last eleven are new to the club this window.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Cagliari: 45% possession, 16.4 shots a match, 16.0 faced, 0.92 xG a match from set pieces. Juventus: 57% possession, 19.6 shots a match, 8.0 faced, 0.68 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-08 10:52 · team_stats 2026-09-08 06:03 · availability 2026-09-08 11:54 · prediction 2026-09-04 06:09 ·

Juventus are the model's most likely outcome at 58.7%. The likeliest scoreline is 0-1 at 13.4%. Confidence 93/100, data quality 90/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Cagliari are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.1 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 6.0 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.

WLWDLWWWLW last 10 scored 10 from 15.1 xG conceded 10 from 16.0 xG

Juventus are finishing sharply below their chances — 7.5 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.

WWDDWLDWWD last 10 scored 11 from 18.5 xG conceded 6 from 6.3 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	172359	0.82–1.74	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	182458	0.84–1.68	0-1 14%	46%	46%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juventus to win	59.2%	58.8%	34.0%	1.73×	1.70
Draw	23.4%	22.2%	26.8%	0.83×	4.51
Cagliari to win	17.4%	19.2%	39.4%	0.49×	5.22

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juventus & not both score	36.2%	37.2%	20.8%	1.78×	2.69
Juventus & both teams score	23.0%	22.6%	13.3%	1.71×	4.42
Draw & both teams score	15.7%	17.7%	18.7%	0.95×	5.64
Cagliari & not both score	9.8%	7.3%	22.6%	0.32×	13.62
Draw & not both score	7.7%	7.3%	8.2%	0.89×	13.67
Cagliari & both teams score	7.6%	7.3%	16.9%	0.43×	13.67

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juventus & over 1.5	45.8%	46.6%	24.6%	1.89×	2.15
Juventus & under 3.5	41.4%	43.9%	26.6%	1.65×	2.28
Juventus & over 2.5	34.2%	33.2%	18.1%	1.84×	3.01
Juventus & under 2.5	25.1%	25.5%	16.0%	1.59×	3.93
Draw & under 2.5	18.7%	17.6%	19.9%	0.88×	5.69
Draw & under 3.5	18.7%	17.6%	19.9%	0.88×	5.69
Juventus & over 3.5	17.8%	17.6%	7.4%	2.36×	5.69
Draw & over 1.5	15.7%	17.6%	18.7%	0.94×	5.70
Cagliari & under 3.5	14.2%	12.7%	29.4%	0.43×	7.86
Juventus & under 1.5	13.4%	12.7%	9.5%	1.34×	7.86
Cagliari & over 1.5	11.1%	12.7%	29.0%	0.44×	7.87
Cagliari & under 2.5	8.9%	7.5%	17.0%	0.44×	13.40
Cagliari & over 2.5	8.5%	7.5%	22.5%	0.33×	13.40
Draw & under 1.5	7.7%	7.5%	8.2%	0.91×	13.41
Cagliari & under 1.5	6.3%	7.5%	10.5%	0.71×	13.42
Draw & over 2.5	4.6%	4.6%	6.9%	0.66×	21.91
Draw & over 3.5	4.6%	4.6%	6.9%	0.66×	21.91
Cagliari & over 3.5	3.2%	4.6%	10.1%	0.45×	21.97

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juventus (1UP)	70.5%	76.3%	51.1%	1.49×	1.31
Cagliari (1UP)	33.3%	32.7%	54.7%	0.60×	3.06

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juventus (2UP)	59.2%	61.5%	36.5%	1.68×	1.63
Cagliari (2UP)	17.4%	22.8%	41.0%	0.56×	4.38

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juventus to win 2nd half	43.9%	39.6%	29.5%	1.34×	2.53
2nd half drawn	35.5%	37.4%	35.9%	1.04×	2.67
Cagliari to win 2nd half	20.6%	22.2%	34.7%	0.64×	4.51

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juventus (+2.5)	98.8%	97.2%	92.4%	1.05×	1.03
Juventus (+1.5)	94.7%	92.4%	83.0%	1.11×	1.08
Juventus (+0.5)	82.6%	82.3%	60.6%	1.36×	1.22
Juventus (-0.5)	59.2%	57.2%	34.0%	1.68×	1.75
Cagliari (+0.5)	40.8%	42.8%	66.0%	0.65×	2.34
Cagliari (-0.5)	17.4%	17.7%	39.4%	0.45×	5.65
Cagliari (-1.5)	5.3%	7.6%	17.0%	0.45×	13.10
Cagliari (-2.5)	1.2%	2.8%	7.6%	0.37×	36.11

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juventus to concede	56.1%	52.0%	71.1%	0.73×	1.92
Juventus clean sheet	43.9%	48.0%	28.9%	1.66×	2.08

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juventus clean sheet in 1st half	76.3%	79.6%	58.8%	1.35×	1.26
Juventus to concede in 1st half	23.7%	20.4%	41.2%	0.49×	4.91

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juventus over 2.5 corners	84.5%	81.4%	—	—	1.23
Juventus over 3.5 corners	72.3%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
Juventus under 6.5 corners	66.5%	67.5%	—	—	1.48
Juventus over 4.5 corners	58.7%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Juventus under 5.5 corners	54.7%	53.1%	—	—	1.88
Juventus over 5.5 corners	45.3%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Juventus under 4.5 corners	41.3%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Juventus over 6.5 corners	33.5%	32.5%	—	—	3.08
Juventus under 3.5 corners	27.7%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
Juventus under 2.5 corners	15.5%	18.6%	—	—	5.38

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juventus under 3.5 goals	90.0%	92.6%	97.1%	0.95×	1.08
Juventus over 0.5 goals	82.5%	82.2%	69.3%	1.19×	1.22
Juventus under 2.5 goals	74.6%	72.0%	88.4%	0.81×	1.39
Juventus over 1.5 goals	52.0%	51.9%	34.6%	1.50×	1.93
Juventus under 1.5 goals	48.0%	48.1%	65.4%	0.74×	2.08
Juventus over 2.5 goals	25.4%	28.0%	11.6%	2.41×	3.57
Juventus under 0.5 goals	17.5%	17.8%	30.7%	0.58×	5.63
Juventus over 3.5 goals	10.0%	7.4%	2.9%	2.56×	13.48

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juventus under 1.5 in 1st half	81.3%	80.9%	90.2%	0.90×	1.24
Juventus over 0.5 in 1st half	54.6%	51.1%	41.0%	1.24×	1.96
Juventus under 0.5 in 1st half	45.4%	48.9%	59.0%	0.83×	2.04
Juventus over 1.5 in 1st half	18.7%	19.1%	9.8%	1.94×	5.25

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw (away no bet)	57.3%	59.0%	40.5%	1.46×	1.70
Cagliari (away no bet)	42.7%	41.0%	59.5%	0.69×	2.44

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juventus even goals	51.5%	52.4%	55.7%	0.94×	1.91
Juventus odd goals	48.5%	47.6%	44.3%	1.07×	2.10

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	87.3%	86.4%	87.2%	0.99×	1.16
Both halves over 1.5 goals	12.7%	13.6%	12.8%	1.07×	7.36

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	60.3%	66.1%	59.6%	1.11×	1.51
Both halves under 1.5 goals	39.7%	33.9%	40.4%	0.84×	2.95

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	55.1%	59.1%	52.8%	1.12×	1.69
Juventus to score 2+ in a row	45.6%	47.6%	27.7%	1.72×	2.10
Either team to score 3+ in a row	21.6%	21.8%	17.3%	1.26×	4.60
Juventus to score 3+ in a row	19.2%	17.9%	7.7%	2.32×	5.60
Cagliari to score 2+ in a row	13.7%	12.2%	31.1%	0.39×	8.18
Cagliari to score 3+ in a row	2.6%	3.4%	9.7%	0.35×	29.74

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juventus corners (+3.5)	89.7%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Juventus corners (+2.5)	84.3%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Juventus corners (+1.5)	77.1%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
Cagliari corners (+3.5)	71.8%	70.8%	—	—	1.41
Cagliari corners (+2.5)	62.6%	61.9%	—	—	1.62
Cagliari corners (+1.5)	52.4%	52.5%	—	—	1.91
Juventus corners (-1.5)	47.6%	47.5%	—	—	2.11
Juventus corners (-2.5)	37.4%	38.1%	—	—	2.62
Juventus corners (-3.5)	28.2%	29.3%	—	—	3.42
Cagliari corners (-1.5)	22.9%	25.2%	—	—	3.98
Cagliari corners (-2.5)	15.7%	20.2%	—	—	4.96
Cagliari corners (-3.5)	10.3%	15.5%	—	—	6.45

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	41.4%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
12+ corners	30.2%	33.2%	—	—	3.01
9-11 corners	28.4%	31.2%	—	—	3.20

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	77.2%	76.5%	—	—	1.31
Under 11.5 corners	69.8%	67.7%	—	—	1.48
Over 7.5 corners	68.8%	67.7%	—	—	1.48
Under 10.5 corners	61.2%	63.3%	—	—	1.58
Over 8.5 corners	58.6%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Under 9.5 corners	51.6%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Over 9.5 corners	48.4%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Under 8.5 corners	41.4%	42.1%	—	—	2.38
Over 10.5 corners	38.8%	36.7%	—	—	2.72
Under 7.5 corners	31.2%	32.3%	—	—	3.10
Over 11.5 corners	30.2%	32.3%	—	—	3.10
Over 12.5 corners	22.8%	23.5%	—	—	4.26

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.9%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-1	13.4%	11.6%	9.5%	1.22×	8.62
0-2	11.7%	11.6%	6.7%	1.73×	8.63
1-1	11.0%	11.6%	11.9%	0.98×	8.64
1-2	9.6%	7.3%	7.6%	0.96×	13.74
0-0	7.7%	7.3%	8.2%	0.89×	13.74
0-3	6.8%	7.3%	3.3%	2.22×	13.75
1-0	6.3%	7.3%	10.5%	0.69×	13.75
1-3	5.6%	7.3%	1.9%	3.84×	13.75
2-1	4.5%	1.8%	9.2%	0.20×	55.40
2-2	4.0%	1.8%	6.1%	0.30×	55.41
0-4	3.0%	1.8%	1.0%	1.79×	55.43
1-4	2.4%	1.8%	0.8%	2.38×	55.45
2-0	2.6%	1.8%	6.7%	0.27×	55.44
Any other score	3.4%	1.8%	2.8%	0.65×	55.42
2-3	2.3%	1.8%	3.0%	0.60×	55.45
3-1	1.2%	1.8%	3.0%	0.59×	55.48
2-4	1.0%	1.8%	0.1%	14.27×	55.48
3-0	0.7%	1.8%	3.4%	0.53×	55.49
3-2	1.1%	1.8%	2.9%	0.62×	55.48
3-3	0.6%	1.8%	0.9%	2.04×	55.49
3-4	0.3%	1.8%	0.3%	7.14×	55.50
4-0	0.1%	1.8%	1.6%	1.10×	55.50
4-1	0.3%	1.8%	1.1%	1.59×	55.50
4-2	0.2%	1.8%	0.1%	14.27×	55.50
4-3	0.1%	1.8%	0.3%	7.13×	55.51
4-4	0.1%	1.8%	0.3%	7.13×	55.51

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juventus leading at HT (DNB)	79.3%	80.2%	49.9%	1.61×	1.25
Cagliari leading at HT (DNB)	20.7%	19.8%	50.1%	0.40×	5.04

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juventus or draw (X2)	82.6%	80.8%	60.6%	1.33×	1.24
Cagliari or Juventus (12)	76.6%	77.8%	73.2%	1.06×	1.29
Cagliari or draw (1X)	40.8%	41.2%	66.0%	0.62×	2.43

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juventus or draw at HT	88.1%	88.4%	72.5%	1.22×	1.13
Cagliari or Juventus at HT	57.5%	58.2%	54.8%	1.06×	1.72
Cagliari or draw at HT	54.4%	52.1%	72.6%	0.72×	1.92

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juventus or draw (1UP)	82.6%	83.8%	66.3%	1.26×	1.19
Cagliari or draw (1UP)	40.8%	45.5%	71.3%	0.64×	2.20

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juventus or draw in 2nd half	79.4%	77.8%	65.3%	1.19×	1.29
Cagliari or Juventus in 2nd half	64.5%	62.6%	64.1%	0.98×	1.60
Cagliari or draw in 2nd half	56.1%	60.4%	70.5%	0.86×	1.66

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	62.9%	59.4%	64.4%	0.92×	1.68
Neither half drawn	37.1%	40.6%	35.6%	1.14×	2.46

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juventus (DNB)	77.3%	78.0%	46.3%	1.69×	1.28
Cagliari (DNB)	22.7%	22.0%	53.7%	0.41×	4.55

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juventus to score first	62.7%	66.8%	44.2%	1.51×	1.50
Cagliari to score first	29.6%	25.0%	47.7%	0.52×	4.01
No goal scored	7.7%	6.3%	8.2%	0.76×	15.97

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score	53.7%	52.9%	51.4%	1.03×	1.89
Both teams to score	46.3%	47.1%	48.6%	0.97×	2.12

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both score & under 2.5	41.7%	42.3%	41.0%	1.03×	2.37
Both score & over 2.5	35.3%	37.4%	36.9%	1.01×	2.68
Not both score & over 2.5	12.0%	11.7%	10.5%	1.12×	8.53
Both score & under 2.5	11.0%	11.7%	11.9%	0.99×	8.54

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	89.6%	85.6%	86.9%	0.99×	1.17
Both teams to score 2+	10.4%	14.4%	13.1%	1.10×	6.95

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	73.9%	70.5%	74.7%	0.94×	1.42
Both teams to score in 2nd half	26.1%	29.5%	25.3%	1.17×	3.39

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	64.3%	59.6%	63.1%	0.94×	1.68
Both score 2nd half only	22.7%	24.4%	20.5%	1.19×	4.10
Both score 1st half only	9.6%	6.6%	11.7%	0.56×	15.24
Both score in both halves	3.4%	4.8%	4.9%	0.97×	20.85

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	87.1%	85.5%	83.5%	1.02×	1.17
Both teams to score by HT	12.9%	14.5%	16.5%	0.88×	6.90

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	50.9%	54.6%	51.8%	1.05×	1.83
A half without a goal	49.1%	45.4%	48.2%	0.94×	2.20

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	46.9%	45.9%	48.0%	0.96×	2.18
0-1 goals	27.4%	27.7%	27.9%	0.99×	3.61
4-6 goals	24.1%	22.8%	23.5%	0.97×	4.38
7+ goals	1.6%	1.9%	0.9%	2.19×	51.69

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juventus to score exactly 1	30.5%	33.2%	34.8%	0.95×	3.01
Juventus to score exactly 2	26.6%	27.1%	23.1%	1.17×	3.70
Juventus to score 3+	25.4%	27.0%	11.6%	2.33×	3.70
Juventus to score exactly 0	17.5%	18.4%	30.7%	0.60×	5.45

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cagliari to score exactly 0	43.9%	45.9%	28.9%	1.59×	2.18
Cagliari to score exactly 1	36.1%	36.0%	32.3%	1.11×	2.78
Cagliari to score exactly 2	14.9%	13.6%	24.6%	0.55×	7.38
Cagliari to score 3+	5.1%	7.8%	14.4%	0.54×	12.76

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juventus leading at HT	45.6%	47.9%	27.4%	1.75×	2.09
Draw at HT	42.5%	41.8%	45.2%	0.92×	2.39
Cagliari leading at HT	11.9%	11.6%	27.5%	0.42×	8.65

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juventus -1: 1	40.8%	42.1%	—	—	2.38
Juventus -1: 2	33.6%	32.2%	—	—	3.10
Juventus -1: X	25.6%	27.0%	—	—	3.70

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juventus (0:1)	82.6%	80.3%	60.6%	1.33×	1.25
Draw (0:1)	12.1%	10.6%	22.5%	0.47×	9.40
Cagliari (0:1)	5.3%	8.3%	17.0%	0.49×	12.01

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juventus (0:2)	94.7%	91.6%	83.0%	1.10×	1.09
Draw (0:2)	4.1%	3.0%	9.6%	0.32×	32.83
Cagliari (0:2)	1.2%	2.9%	7.6%	0.39×	33.95

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juventus (0:3)	98.8%	97.2%	92.4%	1.05×	1.03
Draw (0:3)	1.0%	2.3%	4.5%	0.51×	43.37
Cagliari (0:3)	0.2%	2.3%	3.2%	0.73×	43.55

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juventus (0:4)	99.8%	98.1%	96.8%	1.01×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	0.2%	1.2%	2.3%	0.54×	81.25
Cagliari (0:4)	0.0%	1.2%	1.0%	1.22×	81.34

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cagliari (1:0)	40.8%	42.8%	66.0%	0.65×	2.34
Draw (1:0)	25.6%	28.4%	19.9%	1.43×	3.52
Juventus (1:0)	33.6%	27.6%	14.1%	1.95×	3.63

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cagliari (2:0)	66.4%	70.7%	85.9%	0.82×	1.41
Draw (2:0)	18.4%	15.0%	8.5%	1.78×	6.65
Juventus (2:0)	15.3%	14.8%	5.8%	2.55×	6.76

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	47.5%	48.7%	46.6%	1.05×	2.05
1st half highest scoring	26.7%	26.1%	26.8%	0.98×	3.83
Halves equal	25.8%	26.1%	26.8%	0.98×	3.83

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cagliari to concede	82.5%	84.7%	69.3%	1.22×	1.18
Cagliari clean sheet	17.5%	15.3%	30.7%	0.50×	6.55

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cagliari to concede in 1st half	54.6%	51.1%	41.0%	1.24×	1.96
Cagliari clean sheet in 1st half	45.4%	48.9%	59.0%	0.83×	2.04

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cagliari under 6.5 corners	83.0%	81.0%	—	—	1.24
Cagliari under 5.5 corners	73.3%	71.8%	—	—	1.39
Cagliari over 2.5 corners	72.0%	71.8%	—	—	1.39
Cagliari under 4.5 corners	60.4%	62.2%	—	—	1.61
Cagliari over 3.5 corners	55.3%	57.6%	—	—	1.74
Cagliari under 3.5 corners	44.7%	42.4%	—	—	2.36
Cagliari over 4.5 corners	39.6%	37.8%	—	—	2.65
Cagliari under 2.5 corners	28.0%	28.2%	—	—	3.55
Cagliari over 5.5 corners	26.7%	28.2%	—	—	3.55
Cagliari over 6.5 corners	17.0%	19.0%	—	—	5.26

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cagliari under 3.5 goals	99.0%	97.8%	95.5%	1.02×	1.02
Cagliari under 2.5 goals	94.9%	92.2%	85.6%	1.08×	1.09
Cagliari under 1.5 goals	80.0%	82.3%	61.1%	1.35×	1.21
Cagliari over 0.5 goals	56.1%	55.6%	71.1%	0.78×	1.80
Cagliari under 0.5 goals	43.9%	44.4%	28.9%	1.53×	2.25
Cagliari over 1.5 goals	20.0%	17.7%	38.9%	0.45×	5.66
Cagliari over 2.5 goals	5.1%	7.8%	14.4%	0.55×	12.75
Cagliari over 3.5 goals	1.0%	2.2%	4.5%	0.48×	45.42

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cagliari under 1.5 in 1st half	96.9%	96.9%	90.2%	1.07×	1.03
Cagliari under 0.5 in 1st half	76.3%	79.0%	58.8%	1.34×	1.27
Cagliari over 0.5 in 1st half	23.7%	21.0%	41.2%	0.51×	4.76
Cagliari over 1.5 in 1st half	3.1%	3.1%	9.8%	0.31×	32.34

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juventus (home no bet)	71.7%	68.1%	55.9%	1.22×	1.47
Draw (home no bet)	28.3%	31.9%	44.1%	0.72×	3.13

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cagliari even goals	59.6%	58.2%	56.6%	1.03×	1.72
Cagliari odd goals	40.4%	41.8%	43.4%	0.96×	2.39

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	34.7%	30.6%	34.3%	0.89×	3.27
HT 0-1	27.3%	28.1%	18.4%	1.52×	3.56
HT 0-2	10.8%	11.2%	5.4%	2.06×	8.95
HT 1-0	9.4%	7.7%	18.3%	0.42×	12.97
HT 1-1	7.4%	7.7%	10.5%	0.73×	13.00
Any other HT score	4.8%	2.5%	3.0%	0.83×	39.72
HT 1-2	2.9%	2.5%	2.5%	0.99×	39.83
HT 2-0	1.3%	2.5%	5.6%	0.45×	39.93
HT 2-1	1.0%	2.5%	2.3%	1.10×	39.94
HT 2-2	0.4%	2.5%	0.6%	3.96×	39.98

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juventus at HT / Juventus at FT	38.8%	41.6%	19.2%	2.17×	2.40
Draw at HT / Juventus at FT	18.6%	16.8%	13.0%	1.29×	5.96
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	15.1%	16.7%	16.7%	1.00×	5.97
Draw at HT / Cagliari at FT	8.8%	6.6%	15.8%	0.42×	15.18
Cagliari at HT / Cagliari at FT	7.1%	6.6%	21.3%	0.31×	15.22
Juventus at HT / Draw at FT	5.3%	6.6%	5.9%	1.10×	15.27
Cagliari at HT / Draw at FT	3.0%	3.4%	4.4%	0.77×	29.39
Cagliari at HT / Juventus at FT	1.8%	3.4%	2.0%	1.68×	29.44
Juventus at HT / Cagliari at FT	1.6%	3.4%	2.5%	1.34×	29.45

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juventus to score last	62.7%	60.2%	43.6%	1.38×	1.66
Cagliari to score last	29.6%	31.9%	48.4%	0.66×	3.14
No goal scored	7.7%	6.3%	8.2%	0.76×	15.97

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	92.3%	93.7%	91.8%	1.02×	1.07
Juventus to lead by 1 at any time	70.5%	76.8%	51.1%	1.50×	1.30
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	47.8%	46.1%	42.6%	1.08×	2.17
Juventus to lead by 2 at any time	39.2%	37.3%	20.1%	1.86×	2.68
Cagliari to lead by 1 at any time	33.3%	32.1%	54.7%	0.59×	3.12
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	19.3%	17.7%	14.5%	1.22×	5.65
Juventus to lead by 3 at any time	17.4%	17.7%	6.3%	2.80×	5.66
Cagliari to lead by 2 at any time	8.7%	7.1%	22.9%	0.31×	14.14
Cagliari to lead by 3 at any time	1.8%	2.6%	8.3%	0.31×	38.63

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juventus most corners	58.1%	55.5%	—	—	1.80
Cagliari most corners	31.8%	34.4%	—	—	2.91
Corners level	10.1%	10.4%	—	—	9.60

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	87.7%	87.9%	89.1%	0.99×	1.14
1-4 goals	80.5%	81.5%	80.7%	1.01×	1.23
2-6 goals	71.0%	73.6%	71.3%	1.03×	1.36
2-5 goals	67.9%	68.3%	69.4%	0.98×	1.46
1-3 goals	66.7%	68.3%	67.7%	1.01×	1.46
2-4 goals	60.8%	62.3%	61.0%	1.02×	1.61
2-3 goals	46.9%	48.0%	48.0%	1.00×	2.08
3-6 goals	45.7%	48.0%	46.5%	1.03×	2.08
1-2 goals	45.0%	48.0%	44.7%	1.07×	2.08
3-5 goals	42.6%	43.6%	44.6%	0.98×	2.29
3-4 goals	35.5%	38.8%	36.1%	1.07×	2.58
4-6 goals	24.1%	24.8%	23.5%	1.05×	4.04
4-5 goals	21.0%	24.7%	21.6%	1.14×	4.05
5-6 goals	10.2%	13.4%	10.5%	1.28×	7.47
7+ goals	1.6%	2.0%	0.9%	2.28×	49.67

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juventus never behind	59.0%	63.1%	45.3%	1.39×	1.58
Cagliari never behind	21.8%	23.9%	48.9%	0.49×	4.19

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	49.7%	50.1%	51.8%	0.97×	1.99
Even number of goals	50.3%	49.9%	48.2%	1.03×	2.01

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	56.0%	55.3%	56.8%	0.97×	1.81
Odd goals in 1st half	44.0%	44.7%	43.2%	1.04×	2.24

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	52.5%	51.7%	51.4%	1.01×	1.94
Odd goals in 2nd half	47.5%	48.3%	48.6%	0.99×	2.07

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 5.5 goals	95.4%	95.6%	97.2%	0.98×	1.05
Over 0.5 goals	92.3%	92.9%	91.8%	1.01×	1.08
Under 4.5 goals	88.2%	88.8%	88.8%	1.00×	1.13
Under 3.5 goals	74.3%	72.5%	75.8%	0.96×	1.38
Over 1.5 goals	72.6%	72.4%	72.1%	1.00×	1.38
Under 2.5 goals	52.7%	53.5%	52.8%	1.01×	1.87
Over 2.5 goals	47.3%	46.5%	47.2%	0.98×	2.15
Under 1.5 goals	27.4%	27.6%	27.9%	0.99×	3.63
Over 3.5 goals	25.7%	27.5%	24.2%	1.14×	3.63
Over 4.5 goals	11.8%	11.2%	11.2%	1.00×	8.91
Under 0.5 goals	7.7%	7.1%	8.2%	0.86×	14.17
Over 5.5 goals	4.7%	4.4%	2.8%	1.58×	22.77

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	98.3%	97.2%	99.1%	0.98×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	95.0%	92.8%	97.0%	0.96×	1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	86.3%	88.1%	87.1%	1.01×	1.14
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	67.3%	68.0%	68.5%	0.99×	1.47
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	63.3%	62.4%	62.9%	0.99×	1.60
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	36.7%	37.6%	37.1%	1.01×	2.66
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	32.7%	32.0%	31.5%	1.02×	3.13
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	13.7%	11.9%	12.9%	0.92×	8.38
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	5.0%	7.2%	3.0%	2.38×	13.85
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	1.7%	2.8%	0.9%	3.07×	36.20

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	90.8%	92.2%	91.9%	1.00×	1.09
Under 1.5 in 1st half	71.4%	72.4%	70.8%	1.02×	1.38
Over 0.5 in 1st half	65.3%	68.5%	65.7%	1.04×	1.46
Under 0.5 in 1st half	34.7%	31.5%	34.3%	0.92×	3.18
Over 1.5 in 1st half	28.6%	27.6%	29.2%	0.95×	3.62
Over 2.5 in 1st half	9.2%	7.8%	8.1%	0.97×	12.77

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	80.7%	82.0%	82.3%	1.00×	1.22
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	77.8%	80.3%	77.9%	1.03×	1.25
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	55.6%	54.1%	56.8%	0.95×	1.85
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	44.4%	45.9%	43.2%	1.06×	2.18
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	22.2%	19.7%	22.1%	0.89×	5.07
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	19.3%	18.0%	17.7%	1.02×	5.56

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cagliari not to score in both halves	89.9%	84.7%	76.3%	1.11×	1.18
Juventus not to score in both halves	66.5%	66.9%	78.8%	0.85×	1.50
Juventus to score in both halves	33.5%	33.1%	21.2%	1.56×	3.02
Cagliari to score in both halves	10.1%	15.3%	23.7%	0.65×	6.52

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	46.3%	49.4%	48.6%	1.02×	2.02
Only Juventus scores	36.2%	39.8%	20.8%	1.91×	2.51
Only Cagliari scores	9.8%	6.7%	22.6%	0.30×	14.94
Neither team scores	7.7%	6.7%	8.2%	0.81×	15.02

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	25.3%	24.7%	25.0%	0.99×	4.05
Exactly 3 goals	21.6%	21.5%	23.1%	0.93×	4.64
Exactly 1 goals	19.7%	18.6%	19.8%	0.94×	5.38
Exactly 4 goals	13.9%	12.4%	13.1%	0.94×	8.08
Exactly 0 goals	7.7%	7.6%	8.2%	0.93×	13.13
Exactly 5 goals	7.1%	7.6%	8.6%	0.89×	13.14
6 or more goals	4.7%	4.4%	2.8%	1.58×	22.82

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	44.4%	46.5%	43.2%	1.08×	2.15
1 goal in 2nd half	33.4%	33.2%	34.8%	0.95×	3.01
No goals in 2nd half	22.2%	18.5%	22.1%	0.84×	5.41

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cagliari not to win both halves	97.5%	96.7%	90.3%	1.07×	1.03
Juventus not to win both halves	80.0%	80.4%	91.4%	0.88×	1.25
Juventus to win both halves	20.0%	19.7%	8.6%	2.29×	5.09
Cagliari to win both halves	2.5%	3.3%	9.7%	0.34×	30.26

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cagliari to win neither half	69.9%	67.3%	47.5%	1.42×	1.49
Juventus to win either half	69.5%	67.3%	48.4%	1.39×	1.49
Juventus to win neither half	30.5%	32.7%	51.6%	0.63×	3.06
Cagliari to win either half	30.1%	32.7%	52.5%	0.62×	3.06

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cagliari not to win to nil	90.2%	92.2%	77.4%	1.19×	1.09
Juventus not to win to nil	63.8%	61.4%	79.2%	0.78×	1.63
Juventus to win to nil	36.2%	38.6%	20.8%	1.85×	2.59
Cagliari to win to nil	9.8%	7.8%	22.6%	0.34×	12.83

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juventus by 1	25.6%	28.0%	19.9%	1.40×	3.57
Draw	23.4%	23.8%	26.8%	0.89×	4.21
Juventus by 2	18.4%	17.0%	8.5%	2.01×	5.89
Juventus by 3+	15.3%	17.0%	5.8%	2.92×	5.90
Cagliari by 1	12.1%	11.9%	22.5%	0.53×	8.44
Cagliari by 2	4.1%	2.8%	9.6%	0.30×	35.19
Cagliari by 3+	1.2%	2.8%	7.6%	0.37×	35.61