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Cagliari v Lecce — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 19 January 2025 · ITA-Serie A · 2425

Serie A xG

4–1
3.36 – 0.39 xG
Shots
19 – 7
On target
6 – 2
Shots in box
16 – 5
xG per shot
0.18 – 0.06
Set-piece xG
1.41 – 0.00
Goals − xG
+0.62 – +0.61
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.00.91.92.83.80'15'30'45'60'75'90'Santiago Pierotti 41' — goalGianluca Gaetano 59' — goalSebastiano Luperto 64' — goalNadir Zortea 79' — goalAdam Obert 82' — goal
Cagliari 3.38 xGLecce 0.39 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Tete Morente 7' — Missed Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Nicolas Viola 8' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Nikola Krstovic 16' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Ndary Adopo 18' — Saved Shot (0.08 xG, Open Play)Sebastiano Luperto 29' — Missed Shot (0.40 xG, Set Piece)Nikola Krstovic 31' — Saved Shot (0.12 xG, Open Play)Nikola Krstovic 31' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Gabriele Zappa 32' — Blocked Shot (0.05 xG, From Corner)Gabriele Zappa 32' — Blocked Shot (0.05 xG, From Corner)Roberto Piccoli 33' — Blocked Shot (0.01 xG, From Corner)Sebastiano Luperto 33' — Missed Shot (0.06 xG, From Corner)Santiago Pierotti 41' — Goal (0.07 xG, Open Play)Balthazar Pierret 47' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Roberto Piccoli 50' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, From Corner)Roberto Piccoli 55' — Missed Shot (0.43 xG, Open Play)Gianluca Gaetano 59' — Goal (0.47 xG, Open Play)Alessandro Deiola 64' — Saved Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Sebastiano Luperto 64' — Goal (0.80 xG, From Corner)Gianluca Gaetano 74' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Tommaso Augello 77' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Nadir Zortea 79' — Goal (0.55 xG, Open Play)Adam Obert 82' — Goal (0.07 xG, Open Play)Gianluca Gaetano 84' — Blocked Shot (0.11 xG, Open Play)Nadir Zortea 84' — Blocked Shot (0.09 xG, Open Play)Tommaso Augello 84' — Missed Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Rares Burnete 91' — Blocked Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)
Cagliari attacking right Lecce attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
7' Lecce Tete Morente 0.05 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Santiago Pierotti
8' Cagliari Nicolas Viola 0.04 Open Play Missed Shot Adam Obert
16' Lecce Nikola Krstovic 0.02 Open Play Missed Shot
18' Cagliari Ndary Adopo 0.08 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot
29' Cagliari Sebastiano Luperto 0.40 Set Piece Missed Shot Nicolas Viola
31' Lecce Nikola Krstovic 0.12 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Santiago Pierotti
31' Lecce Nikola Krstovic 0.04 Open Play Missed Shot Tete Morente
32' Cagliari Gabriele Zappa 0.05 From Corner Right Foot Blocked Shot Mattia Felici
32' Cagliari Gabriele Zappa 0.05 From Corner Right Foot Blocked Shot
33' Cagliari Roberto Piccoli 0.01 From Corner Blocked Shot Nicolas Viola
33' Cagliari Sebastiano Luperto 0.06 From Corner Left Foot Missed Shot Nadir Zortea
41' Lecce Santiago Pierotti 0.07 Open Play Left Foot Goal
47' Lecce Balthazar Pierret 0.04 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Nikola Krstovic
50' Cagliari Roberto Piccoli 0.04 From Corner Missed Shot Nicolas Viola
55' Cagliari Roberto Piccoli 0.43 Open Play Missed Shot Gabriele Zappa
59' Cagliari Gianluca Gaetano 0.47 Open Play Right Foot Goal Alessandro Deiola
64' Cagliari Alessandro Deiola 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot
64' Cagliari Sebastiano Luperto 0.80 From Corner Goal Razvan Marin
74' Cagliari Gianluca Gaetano 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Adam Obert
77' Cagliari Tommaso Augello 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Gianluca Gaetano
79' Cagliari Nadir Zortea 0.55 Open Play Goal Tommaso Augello
82' Cagliari Adam Obert 0.07 Open Play Left Foot Goal Razvan Marin
84' Cagliari Gianluca Gaetano 0.11 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Roberto Piccoli
84' Cagliari Nadir Zortea 0.09 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot
84' Cagliari Tommaso Augello 0.06 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot
91' Lecce Rares Burnete 0.06 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Gaby Jean

Players

Cagliari

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Sebastiano Luperto DC 90 1 0 3 0 1.26 0.00 0.50
Roberto Piccoli FW 90 0 0 3 1 0.48 0.11 0.61
Gabriele Zappa DR 90 0 0 2 1 0.10 0.43 1.04
Adam Obert DL 90 1 0 1 2 0.07 0.06 0.68
Elia Caprile GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.02
Yerry Mina DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.02
Nadir Zortea MR 87 1 0 2 1 0.64 0.06 1.21
Mattia Felici ML 75 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.05 0.04
Ndary Adopo MC 55 0 0 1 0 0.08 0.00 0.12
Nicolas Viola AMC 55 0 0 1 3 0.04 0.45 0.04
Antoine Makoumbou MC 55 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.04
Gianluca Gaetano Sub 35 1 0 3 1 0.61 0.02 0.70
Alessandro Deiola Sub 35 0 1 1 1 0.02 0.47 1.16
Razvan Marin Sub 35 0 2 0 2 0.00 0.88 1.53
Tommaso Augello Sub 15 0 1 2 1 0.07 0.55 0.62
Leonardo Pavoletti Sub 3 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00

Lecce

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Balthazar Pierret MC 90 0 0 1 0 0.04 0.00 0.09
Patrick Dorgu DL 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.10
Gaby Jean DC 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.06 0.06
Frederic Guilbert DR 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.04
Federico Baschirotto DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Wladimiro Falcone GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Lassana Coulibaly MC 79 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Tete Morente FWL 78 0 0 1 1 0.05 0.04 0.09
Nikola Krstovic FW 64 0 0 3 1 0.18 0.04 0.22
Thórir Helgason MC 64 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Santiago Pierotti FWR 57 1 0 1 2 0.07 0.17 0.27
Kevin Bonifazi Sub 33 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Ylber Ramadani Sub 26 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.06
Rares Burnete Sub 12 0 0 1 0 0.06 0.00 0.06
Jesper Karlsson Sub 11 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Ante Rebic Sub 10 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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