Cagliari v Lecce — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Monday 7 September 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2627

Serie A xG Prediction generated 5 Sep 2026, 14:39

Cagliari

12:00

Lecce

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 6 Sep, 07:53 · 32h before kick-off

Cagliari win

54.6%

model 50.6%

Draw

22.7%

model 24.6%

Lecce win

22.7%

model 24.8%

552323

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (372 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 11.7%
1-0 10.9%
2-1 9.6%
2-0 8.9%
0-1 7.1%

Goals

Over 2.5	51.0%	Under 2.5	49.0%
BTTS yes	53.1%	BTTS no	46.9%
Cagliari 1+	80.6%	Cagliari 2+	48.8%
Lecce 1+	65.8%	Lecce 2+	29.1%

Expected goals 1.64 – 1.07. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

98/100

Data quality

100/100

Model agreement

98%

★ Best pick

Cagliari (-0.5)

Asian handicap · usually 39%

51.8% fair odds 1.93

strong signal · 897 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Cagliari or draw (1UP)

Double chance 1UP · usually 71%

84.4% fair odds 1.19

moderate signal · 498 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Cagliari have created 1.50 xG a match over their last five while Lecce have allowed 2.21.
Form is good: 1.80 points a match from the last five.
At home Cagliari average 1.42 xG a match.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Cagliari have an estimated 54.6% win probability, against 22.7% for Lecce and 22.7% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.64 for Cagliari and 1.07 for Lecce.

Why Cagliari

Cagliari have created 1.50 xG a match over their last five while Lecce have allowed 2.21. Form is good: 1.80 points a match from the last five. At home Cagliari average 1.42 xG a match.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 22.7%. Draws run at 27% in this competition.

Why Lecce can win

Lecce have created 1.31 xG a match over their last five while Cagliari have allowed 1.60. Form is good: 1.80 points a match from the last five. Away from home Lecce average 1.37 xG a match.

Key players

Cagliari's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Sebastiano Esposito (0.33), Paul Mendy (0.23), Gennaro Borrelli (0.19). Lecce's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Walid Cheddira (0.26), Willem Geubbels (0.26), Nikola Stulic (0.24).

Availability

2 of Cagliari's top three contributors did not start their last match. 36% of Cagliari's last eleven are new to the club this window. 2 of Lecce's top three contributors did not start their last match.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Cagliari: 49% possession, 16.8 shots a match, 15.8 faced, 0.82 xG a match from set pieces. Lecce: 32% possession, 9.4 shots a match, 14.4 faced, 0.41 xG a match from set pieces. Cagliari's shot volume meets a defence that concedes shots freely.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-06 07:42 · team_stats 2026-09-06 06:08 · availability 2026-09-06 07:53 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·

Cagliari are the model's most likely outcome at 54.6%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 11.7%. Confidence 98/100, data quality 100/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Cagliari are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.0 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 4.0 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.

LWLWDLWWWL last 10 scored 10 from 15.0 xG conceded 12 from 16.0 xG

Lecce are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.1 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 8.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.

LLDDWLWWWL last 10 scored 9 from 13.1 xG conceded 14 from 22.1 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	512525	1.64–1.07	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	492427	1.64–1.16	1-1 12%	53%	55%
deep	492427	1.64–1.16	1-1 12%	53%	55%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cagliari to win	48.6%	47.5%	39.3%	1.21×	2.11
Lecce to win	26.9%	27.9%	34.2%	0.82×	3.59
Draw	24.5%	24.4%	26.7%	0.92×	4.09

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cagliari & not both score	25.4%	25.2%	22.7%	1.11×	3.97
Cagliari & both teams score	23.2%	21.9%	16.7%	1.31×	4.57
Draw & both teams score	18.4%	17.9%	18.5%	0.97×	5.58
Lecce & both teams score	13.6%	13.3%	13.3%	1.00×	7.55
Lecce & not both score	13.3%	13.2%	21.0%	0.63×	7.55
Draw & not both score	6.1%	8.4%	8.3%	1.01×	11.95

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cagliari & over 1.5	38.6%	34.9%	29.0%	1.21×	2.86
Cagliari & under 3.5	32.2%	30.9%	29.5%	1.05×	3.24
Cagliari & over 2.5	30.4%	30.9%	22.3%	1.38×	3.24
Lecce & over 1.5	19.8%	18.0%	24.7%	0.73×	5.56
Lecce & under 3.5	19.4%	18.0%	26.8%	0.67×	5.56
Cagliari & under 2.5	18.2%	18.0%	17.1%	1.05×	5.56
Draw & over 1.5	18.4%	18.0%	18.5%	0.97×	5.56
Draw & under 2.5	17.7%	18.0%	19.9%	0.90×	5.56
Draw & under 3.5	17.7%	18.0%	19.9%	0.90×	5.56
Cagliari & over 3.5	16.4%	18.0%	9.9%	1.81×	5.56
Lecce & over 2.5	15.7%	18.0%	18.1%	0.99×	5.56
Lecce & under 2.5	11.2%	12.9%	16.2%	0.79×	7.78
Cagliari & under 1.5	10.0%	12.9%	10.5%	1.23×	7.78
Lecce & over 3.5	7.5%	7.9%	7.5%	1.05×	12.69
Draw & under 1.5	6.1%	7.9%	8.3%	0.95×	12.69
Draw & over 2.5	6.8%	7.9%	6.9%	1.14×	12.69
Draw & over 3.5	6.8%	7.9%	6.9%	1.14×	12.69
Lecce & under 1.5	7.1%	7.9%	9.6%	0.82×	12.69

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cagliari (1UP)	63.7%	63.2%	54.6%	1.16×	1.58
Lecce (1UP)	44.9%	39.0%	50.9%	0.77×	2.56

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cagliari (2UP)	48.6%	50.0%	40.9%	1.22×	2.00
Lecce (2UP)	26.9%	24.6%	36.6%	0.67×	4.07

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cagliari to win 2nd half	42.1%	41.2%	34.6%	1.19×	2.43
2nd half drawn	34.4%	34.5%	36.0%	0.96×	2.90
Lecce to win 2nd half	23.5%	23.0%	29.6%	0.78×	4.34

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lecce (+2.5)	89.2%	88.5%	92.3%	0.96×	1.13
Lecce (+1.5)	74.4%	73.7%	82.8%	0.89×	1.36
Cagliari (+0.5)	73.1%	73.7%	65.8%	1.12×	1.36
Lecce (+0.5)	51.4%	52.3%	60.7%	0.86×	1.91
Cagliari (-0.5)	48.6%	47.7%	39.3%	1.21×	2.10
Lecce (-0.5)	26.9%	26.3%	34.2%	0.77×	3.80
Cagliari (-1.5)	25.6%	26.3%	17.2%	1.53×	3.80
Cagliari (-2.5)	10.8%	11.5%	7.7%	1.50×	8.70

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lecce to concede	80.6%	81.2%	70.8%	1.15×	1.23
Lecce clean sheet	19.4%	18.8%	29.2%	0.64×	5.33

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lecce to concede in 1st half	48.7%	50.9%	41.3%	1.23×	1.96
Lecce clean sheet in 1st half	51.3%	49.1%	58.7%	0.84×	2.04

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lecce under 6.5 corners	83.5%	81.0%	—	—	1.24
Lecce under 5.5 corners	74.1%	72.3%	—	—	1.38
Lecce over 2.5 corners	71.4%	72.3%	—	—	1.38
Lecce under 4.5 corners	61.2%	61.4%	—	—	1.63
Lecce over 3.5 corners	54.5%	52.4%	—	—	1.91
Lecce under 3.5 corners	45.5%	47.6%	—	—	2.10
Lecce over 4.5 corners	38.8%	38.6%	—	—	2.59
Lecce under 2.5 corners	28.6%	27.7%	—	—	3.61
Lecce over 5.5 corners	25.9%	27.7%	—	—	3.62
Lecce over 6.5 corners	16.5%	19.0%	—	—	5.25

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lecce under 3.5 goals	97.0%	97.6%	97.1%	1.01×	1.03
Lecce under 2.5 goals	88.9%	87.9%	88.3%	1.00×	1.14
Lecce over 0.5 goals	68.5%	68.0%	69.1%	0.98×	1.47
Lecce under 1.5 goals	67.9%	68.0%	65.6%	1.04×	1.47
Lecce over 1.5 goals	32.1%	32.0%	34.4%	0.93×	3.12
Lecce under 0.5 goals	31.5%	32.0%	30.9%	1.04×	3.12
Lecce over 2.5 goals	11.1%	12.1%	11.7%	1.03×	8.26
Lecce over 3.5 goals	3.0%	2.4%	2.9%	0.83×	41.04

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lecce under 1.5 in 1st half	90.6%	94.1%	90.1%	1.04×	1.06
Lecce under 0.5 in 1st half	60.0%	63.1%	58.8%	1.07×	1.59
Lecce over 0.5 in 1st half	40.0%	36.9%	41.2%	0.90×	2.71
Lecce over 1.5 in 1st half	9.4%	5.9%	9.9%	0.60×	16.86

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cagliari (away no bet)	66.5%	66.5%	59.6%	1.12×	1.51
Draw (away no bet)	33.5%	33.6%	40.4%	0.83×	2.98

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lecce even goals	55.0%	52.8%	55.6%	0.95×	1.90
Lecce odd goals	45.0%	47.2%	44.4%	1.06×	2.12

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	84.2%	83.3%	87.2%	0.95×	1.20
Both halves over 1.5 goals	15.8%	16.7%	12.8%	1.31×	5.98

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	65.1%	68.2%	59.4%	1.15×	1.47
Both halves under 1.5 goals	34.9%	31.8%	40.6%	0.78×	3.15

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	57.3%	55.4%	52.8%	1.05×	1.81
Cagliari to score 2+ in a row	40.3%	38.1%	31.0%	1.23×	2.63
Lecce to score 2+ in a row	23.5%	19.3%	27.6%	0.70×	5.17
Either team to score 3+ in a row	21.0%	19.3%	17.3%	1.11×	5.19
Cagliari to score 3+ in a row	15.2%	16.4%	9.7%	1.69×	6.11
Lecce to score 3+ in a row	6.0%	5.5%	7.8%	0.71×	18.05

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cagliari corners (+3.5)	90.3%	88.6%	—	—	1.13
Cagliari corners (+2.5)	85.1%	84.2%	—	—	1.19
Cagliari corners (+1.5)	78.1%	75.5%	—	—	1.33
Lecce corners (+3.5)	70.6%	69.9%	—	—	1.43
Lecce corners (+2.5)	61.4%	61.7%	—	—	1.62
Lecce corners (+1.5)	51.1%	52.3%	—	—	1.91
Cagliari corners (-1.5)	48.9%	47.7%	—	—	2.10
Cagliari corners (-2.5)	38.6%	38.3%	—	—	2.61
Cagliari corners (-3.5)	29.4%	30.1%	—	—	3.32
Lecce corners (-1.5)	21.9%	24.5%	—	—	4.08
Lecce corners (-2.5)	14.9%	15.8%	—	—	6.31
Lecce corners (-3.5)	9.7%	11.4%	—	—	8.80

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	41.1%	37.0%	—	—	2.70
12+ corners	30.5%	32.0%	—	—	3.13
9-11 corners	28.4%	31.8%	—	—	3.15

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	76.9%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Under 11.5 corners	69.5%	67.9%	—	—	1.47
Over 7.5 corners	69.0%	67.9%	—	—	1.47
Under 10.5 corners	60.9%	62.7%	—	—	1.60
Over 8.5 corners	58.9%	57.8%	—	—	1.73
Under 9.5 corners	51.3%	52.2%	—	—	1.91
Over 9.5 corners	48.7%	47.8%	—	—	2.09
Under 8.5 corners	41.1%	42.2%	—	—	2.37
Over 10.5 corners	39.1%	37.3%	—	—	2.68
Under 7.5 corners	31.0%	32.1%	—	—	3.12
Over 11.5 corners	30.5%	32.1%	—	—	3.12
Over 12.5 corners	23.1%	23.4%	—	—	4.28

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even number of corners	50.0%	50.4%	—	—	1.98
Odd number of corners	50.0%	49.6%	—	—	2.02

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	11.6%	11.5%	11.7%	0.98×	8.73
1-0	10.0%	11.4%	10.5%	1.09×	8.74
2-1	9.5%	7.4%	9.2%	0.81×	13.46
0-1	7.1%	7.4%	9.6%	0.78×	13.46
1-2	6.7%	7.4%	7.5%	0.99×	13.46
2-0	8.2%	7.4%	6.8%	1.10×	13.46
0-0	6.1%	7.4%	8.3%	0.90×	13.46
2-2	5.5%	7.4%	6.0%	1.24×	13.46
3-1	5.2%	7.4%	3.1%	2.43×	13.46
0-2	4.1%	1.7%	6.8%	0.25×	58.57
0-3	1.6%	1.7%	3.3%	0.51×	58.58
0-4	0.5%	1.7%	1.0%	1.67×	58.59
1-3	2.6%	1.7%	1.9%	0.89×	58.58
1-4	0.7%	1.7%	0.8%	2.23×	58.59
2-3	2.1%	1.7%	3.1%	0.56×	58.58
2-4	0.6%	1.7%	0.1%	13.33×	58.59
3-0	4.5%	1.7%	3.4%	0.50×	58.57
3-2	3.0%	1.7%	2.7%	0.64×	58.58
3-3	1.2%	1.7%	0.9%	1.91×	58.59
3-4	0.3%	1.7%	0.3%	6.69×	58.59
4-0	1.8%	1.7%	1.7%	1.03×	58.58
4-1	2.1%	1.7%	1.1%	1.49×	58.58
4-2	1.2%	1.7%	0.1%	13.34×	58.59
4-3	0.5%	1.7%	0.3%	6.69×	58.59
4-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.3%	6.69×	58.59
Any other score	3.2%	1.7%	2.8%	0.61×	58.57

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cagliari leading at HT (DNB)	58.6%	57.7%	50.1%	1.15×	1.73
Lecce leading at HT (DNB)	41.4%	42.3%	49.9%	0.85×	2.37

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cagliari or Lecce (12)	75.5%	75.6%	73.3%	1.03×	1.32
Cagliari or draw (1X)	73.1%	72.1%	65.8%	1.10×	1.39
Lecce or draw (X2)	51.4%	52.5%	60.7%	0.86×	1.91

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cagliari or draw at HT	76.1%	80.0%	72.6%	1.10×	1.25
Lecce or draw at HT	66.1%	66.0%	72.4%	0.91×	1.51
Cagliari or Lecce at HT	57.8%	56.8%	54.8%	1.04×	1.76

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cagliari or draw (1UP)	73.1%	80.0%	71.0%	1.13×	1.25
Lecce or draw (1UP)	51.4%	58.7%	66.2%	0.89×	1.71

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cagliari or draw in 2nd half	76.5%	77.0%	70.4%	1.09×	1.30
Cagliari or Lecce in 2nd half	65.6%	65.5%	64.0%	1.02×	1.53
Lecce or draw in 2nd half	57.9%	58.8%	65.4%	0.90×	1.70

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	62.1%	61.5%	64.4%	0.96×	1.63
Neither half drawn	37.9%	38.5%	35.6%	1.08×	2.60

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cagliari (DNB)	64.4%	62.9%	53.5%	1.18×	1.59
Lecce (DNB)	35.6%	37.1%	46.5%	0.80×	2.70

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cagliari to score first	55.1%	62.0%	47.8%	1.30×	1.61
Lecce to score first	38.8%	32.6%	44.0%	0.74×	3.07
No goal scored	6.1%	7.3%	8.3%	0.89×	13.61

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	55.2%	54.7%	48.2%	1.14×	1.83
Not both teams to score	44.8%	45.3%	51.8%	0.87×	2.21

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	43.6%	41.6%	36.6%	1.14×	2.41
Not both score & under 2.5	35.5%	38.5%	41.3%	0.93×	2.60
Both score & under 2.5	11.6%	12.3%	11.7%	1.05×	8.11
Not both score & over 2.5	9.3%	8.4%	10.6%	0.79×	11.96

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	84.4%	83.2%	87.1%	0.96×	1.20
Both teams to score 2+	15.6%	16.8%	12.9%	1.30×	5.95

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	70.5%	74.4%	75.3%	0.99×	1.34
Both teams to score in 2nd half	29.5%	25.6%	24.7%	1.03×	3.91

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	56.8%	59.8%	63.5%	0.94×	1.67
Both score 2nd half only	23.7%	21.2%	19.9%	1.06×	4.72
Both score 1st half only	13.7%	10.5%	11.9%	0.89×	9.51
Both score in both halves	5.7%	6.7%	5.0%	1.34×	15.01

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	80.5%	82.8%	83.3%	0.99×	1.21
Both teams to score by HT	19.5%	17.2%	16.7%	1.03×	5.81

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	55.5%	57.2%	51.9%	1.10×	1.75
A half without a goal	44.5%	42.8%	48.1%	0.89×	2.34

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	46.1%	47.4%	48.0%	0.99×	2.11
4-6 goals	28.2%	26.4%	23.3%	1.13×	3.78
0-1 goals	23.2%	22.8%	28.1%	0.81×	4.38
7+ goals	2.4%	1.8%	0.9%	2.03×	55.18

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lecce to score exactly 1	36.4%	36.0%	34.8%	1.03×	2.78
Lecce to score exactly 0	31.5%	33.9%	30.9%	1.10×	2.95
Lecce to score exactly 2	21.0%	22.4%	22.8%	0.98×	4.47
Lecce to score 3+	11.1%	12.8%	11.7%	1.09×	7.81

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cagliari to score exactly 1	31.8%	32.6%	32.1%	1.02×	3.06
Cagliari to score exactly 2	26.1%	26.5%	24.6%	1.08×	3.77
Cagliari to score 3+	22.6%	23.3%	14.3%	1.63×	4.30
Cagliari to score exactly 0	19.4%	18.9%	29.2%	0.65×	5.30

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	42.2%	43.2%	45.2%	0.96×	2.32
Cagliari leading at HT	33.9%	34.0%	27.6%	1.23×	2.95
Lecce leading at HT	23.9%	20.0%	27.4%	0.73×	4.99

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cagliari -1: 2	51.4%	52.0%	—	—	1.92
Cagliari -1: 1	25.6%	26.5%	—	—	3.77
Cagliari -1: X	23.0%	23.6%	—	—	4.24

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lecce (0:1)	51.4%	51.1%	60.7%	0.84×	1.96
Cagliari (0:1)	25.6%	27.0%	17.2%	1.57×	3.70
Draw (0:1)	23.0%	24.3%	22.2%	1.10×	4.12

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lecce (0:2)	74.4%	75.6%	82.8%	0.91×	1.32
Draw (0:2)	14.8%	11.0%	9.7%	1.14×	9.07
Cagliari (0:2)	10.8%	11.0%	7.7%	1.44×	9.09

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lecce (0:3)	89.2%	90.8%	92.3%	0.98×	1.10
Draw (0:3)	7.1%	5.8%	4.6%	1.26×	17.24
Cagliari (0:3)	3.7%	2.4%	3.2%	0.75×	41.97

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lecce (0:4)	96.3%	98.1%	96.8%	1.01×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	2.7%	1.2%	2.3%	0.52×	83.16
Cagliari (0:4)	1.1%	1.2%	1.0%	1.18×	83.35

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cagliari (1:0)	73.1%	72.5%	65.8%	1.10×	1.38
Draw (1:0)	16.2%	17.0%	20.0%	0.85×	5.87
Lecce (1:0)	10.7%	12.8%	14.3%	0.90×	7.81

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cagliari (2:0)	89.3%	88.4%	85.7%	1.03×	1.13
Draw (2:0)	7.4%	6.5%	8.5%	0.76×	15.49
Lecce (2:0)	3.3%	2.3%	5.9%	0.39×	44.20

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	47.5%	48.2%	46.3%	1.04×	2.07
1st half highest scoring	27.9%	26.5%	26.9%	0.99×	3.77
Halves equal	24.6%	24.3%	26.9%	0.90×	4.12

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cagliari to concede	68.5%	66.5%	69.1%	0.96×	1.50
Cagliari clean sheet	31.5%	33.5%	30.9%	1.08×	2.99

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cagliari clean sheet in 1st half	60.0%	63.1%	58.8%	1.07×	1.59
Cagliari to concede in 1st half	40.0%	36.9%	41.2%	0.90×	2.71

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cagliari over 2.5 corners	85.0%	81.4%	—	—	1.23
Cagliari over 3.5 corners	73.1%	71.5%	—	—	1.40
Cagliari under 6.5 corners	65.5%	67.7%	—	—	1.48
Cagliari over 4.5 corners	59.6%	57.4%	—	—	1.74
Cagliari under 5.5 corners	53.6%	53.1%	—	—	1.89
Cagliari over 5.5 corners	46.4%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Cagliari under 4.5 corners	40.4%	42.6%	—	—	2.35
Cagliari over 6.5 corners	34.5%	32.3%	—	—	3.10
Cagliari under 3.5 corners	26.9%	28.5%	—	—	3.51
Cagliari under 2.5 corners	15.0%	18.6%	—	—	5.36

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cagliari under 3.5 goals	91.6%	92.2%	95.4%	0.97×	1.08
Cagliari over 0.5 goals	80.6%	82.1%	70.8%	1.16×	1.22
Cagliari under 2.5 goals	77.4%	77.7%	85.7%	0.91×	1.29
Cagliari under 1.5 goals	51.3%	53.3%	61.2%	0.87×	1.88
Cagliari over 1.5 goals	48.7%	46.7%	38.8%	1.20×	2.14
Cagliari over 2.5 goals	22.6%	22.3%	14.3%	1.56×	4.48
Cagliari under 0.5 goals	19.4%	17.9%	29.2%	0.61×	5.60
Cagliari over 3.5 goals	8.4%	7.8%	4.6%	1.69×	12.88

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cagliari under 1.5 in 1st half	85.6%	89.8%	90.2%	1.00×	1.11
Cagliari over 0.5 in 1st half	48.7%	51.0%	41.3%	1.23×	1.96
Cagliari under 0.5 in 1st half	51.3%	49.0%	58.7%	0.83×	2.04
Cagliari over 1.5 in 1st half	14.4%	10.2%	9.8%	1.03×	9.85

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lecce (home no bet)	52.3%	51.6%	56.2%	0.92×	1.94
Draw (home no bet)	47.7%	48.4%	43.8%	1.11×	2.07

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cagliari even goals	51.9%	50.6%	56.9%	0.89×	1.98
Cagliari odd goals	48.1%	49.4%	43.1%	1.14×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	30.8%	32.4%	34.2%	0.95×	3.09
HT 1-0	20.5%	24.2%	18.4%	1.32×	4.14
HT 0-1	15.7%	18.8%	18.4%	1.03×	5.31
HT 1-1	10.5%	11.0%	10.6%	1.04×	9.07
HT 2-0	6.8%	7.1%	5.5%	1.29×	14.11
Any other HT score	4.5%	2.2%	3.1%	0.73×	44.58
HT 0-2	4.0%	2.2%	5.5%	0.41×	44.62
HT 2-1	3.5%	2.2%	2.3%	0.98×	44.66
HT 1-2	2.7%	2.2%	2.6%	0.88×	44.73
HT 2-2	0.9%	2.2%	0.6%	3.49×	44.87

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cagliari at HT / Cagliari at FT	27.7%	26.7%	21.3%	1.25×	3.75
Draw at HT / Cagliari at FT	17.8%	16.8%	15.7%	1.07×	5.95
Lecce at HT / Lecce at FT	15.4%	16.8%	19.4%	0.87×	5.96
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	14.5%	12.7%	16.7%	0.76×	7.88
Draw at HT / Lecce at FT	9.9%	6.1%	13.0%	0.47×	16.50
Lecce at HT / Draw at FT	5.4%	6.0%	5.7%	1.05×	16.63
Cagliari at HT / Draw at FT	4.6%	3.4%	4.5%	0.77×	29.10
Lecce at HT / Cagliari at FT	3.2%	3.4%	2.6%	1.34×	29.16
Cagliari at HT / Lecce at FT	1.6%	3.4%	2.0%	1.68×	29.22

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cagliari to score last	55.1%	56.4%	48.0%	1.18×	1.77
Lecce to score last	38.8%	38.4%	43.9%	0.87×	2.61
No goal scored	6.1%	7.3%	8.3%	0.89×	13.61

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	93.9%	92.8%	91.7%	1.01×	1.08
Cagliari to lead by 1 at any time	63.7%	61.5%	54.6%	1.13×	1.63
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	48.0%	44.0%	42.7%	1.03×	2.27
Lecce to lead by 1 at any time	44.9%	39.1%	50.9%	0.77×	2.56
Cagliari to lead by 2 at any time	32.2%	29.4%	23.0%	1.28×	3.40
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	17.8%	14.9%	14.7%	1.02×	6.70
Lecce to lead by 2 at any time	16.0%	14.9%	20.2%	0.74×	6.71
Cagliari to lead by 3 at any time	13.2%	10.5%	8.4%	1.24×	9.55
Lecce to lead by 3 at any time	4.6%	1.6%	6.4%	0.26×	61.21

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cagliari most corners	59.4%	55.5%	—	—	1.80
Lecce most corners	30.6%	33.7%	—	—	2.97
Corners level	10.0%	8.4%	—	—	11.87

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	87.4%	87.4%	89.0%	0.98×	1.14
1-4 goals	78.8%	78.6%	80.7%	0.97×	1.27
2-6 goals	74.4%	72.4%	71.2%	1.02×	1.38
2-5 goals	70.3%	72.4%	69.3%	1.05×	1.38
1-3 goals	63.2%	63.5%	67.7%	0.94×	1.58
2-4 goals	61.7%	63.5%	61.0%	1.04×	1.58
3-6 goals	50.5%	53.1%	46.3%	1.15×	1.88
3-5 goals	46.4%	48.7%	44.4%	1.10×	2.06
2-3 goals	46.1%	48.7%	48.0%	1.01×	2.06
1-2 goals	41.0%	43.6%	44.8%	0.97×	2.29
3-4 goals	37.8%	39.2%	36.1%	1.09×	2.55
4-6 goals	28.2%	30.2%	23.3%	1.29×	3.31
4-5 goals	24.2%	24.5%	21.4%	1.14×	4.09
5-6 goals	12.7%	14.9%	10.3%	1.44×	6.73
7+ goals	2.4%	2.5%	0.9%	2.84×	39.47

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cagliari never behind	48.9%	57.2%	49.1%	1.17×	1.75
Lecce never behind	30.2%	35.3%	45.4%	0.78×	2.84

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	49.8%	50.8%	51.7%	0.98×	1.97
Even number of goals	50.2%	49.2%	48.3%	1.02×	2.03

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	54.7%	51.6%	56.8%	0.91×	1.94
Odd goals in 1st half	45.3%	48.4%	43.2%	1.12×	2.07

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	52.0%	52.0%	51.7%	1.01×	1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half	48.0%	48.0%	48.3%	0.99×	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	93.9%	92.3%	91.7%	1.01×	1.08
Under 5.5 goals	93.6%	92.3%	97.2%	0.95×	1.08
Under 4.5 goals	84.9%	82.4%	88.9%	0.93×	1.21
Over 1.5 goals	76.8%	77.4%	71.9%	1.08×	1.29
Under 3.5 goals	69.3%	66.3%	75.9%	0.87×	1.51
Over 2.5 goals	52.9%	52.4%	47.1%	1.11×	1.91
Under 2.5 goals	47.1%	47.6%	52.9%	0.90×	2.10
Over 3.5 goals	30.7%	33.7%	24.1%	1.40×	2.97
Under 1.5 goals	23.2%	22.6%	28.1%	0.81×	4.42
Over 4.5 goals	15.1%	17.6%	11.1%	1.59×	5.67
Over 5.5 goals	6.4%	7.7%	2.8%	2.75×	12.95
Under 0.5 goals	6.1%	7.7%	8.3%	0.93×	12.95

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	97.5%	97.3%	99.1%	0.98×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	92.9%	92.5%	96.9%	0.95×	1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	82.1%	81.1%	87.2%	0.93×	1.23
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	69.5%	67.4%	62.6%	1.08×	1.49
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	60.6%	62.1%	68.7%	0.90×	1.61
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	39.4%	37.9%	31.3%	1.21×	2.64
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	30.5%	32.6%	37.4%	0.87×	3.06
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	17.9%	18.9%	12.8%	1.48×	5.30
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	7.1%	7.5%	3.1%	2.46×	13.27
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	2.5%	2.7%	0.9%	3.02×	36.37

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	88.4%	89.3%	91.8%	0.97×	1.12
Over 0.5 in 1st half	69.2%	69.1%	65.8%	1.05×	1.45
Under 1.5 in 1st half	67.0%	69.0%	70.7%	0.98×	1.45
Over 1.5 in 1st half	33.0%	31.0%	29.3%	1.06×	3.23
Under 0.5 in 1st half	30.8%	30.9%	34.2%	0.91×	3.23
Over 2.5 in 1st half	11.6%	10.7%	8.2%	1.31×	9.38

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	80.1%	82.9%	77.8%	1.06×	1.21
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	78.0%	80.0%	82.8%	0.97×	1.25
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	52.0%	53.1%	57.1%	0.93×	1.89
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	48.0%	46.9%	42.9%	1.10×	2.13
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	22.0%	20.0%	17.2%	1.16×	4.99
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	19.9%	17.1%	22.2%	0.77×	5.83

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lecce not to score in both halves	81.0%	84.2%	78.7%	1.07×	1.19
Cagliari not to score in both halves	69.8%	70.2%	76.1%	0.92×	1.43
Cagliari to score in both halves	30.2%	29.8%	23.9%	1.25×	3.35
Lecce to score in both halves	19.0%	15.8%	21.3%	0.74×	6.33

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	55.2%	58.2%	48.2%	1.21×	1.72
Only Cagliari scores	25.4%	26.1%	22.7%	1.15×	3.83
Only Lecce scores	13.3%	10.9%	21.0%	0.52×	9.13
Neither team scores	6.1%	7.2%	8.3%	0.86×	13.95

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	23.9%	22.7%	25.0%	0.91×	4.42
Exactly 3 goals	22.2%	22.6%	23.1%	0.98×	4.42
Exactly 1 goals	17.1%	17.5%	19.9%	0.88×	5.73
Exactly 4 goals	15.5%	17.4%	13.1%	1.33×	5.73
Exactly 5 goals	8.7%	7.6%	8.4%	0.90×	13.13
6 or more goals	6.4%	7.6%	2.8%	2.71×	13.14
Exactly 0 goals	6.1%	7.6%	8.3%	0.92×	13.14

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	48.0%	44.8%	42.9%	1.05×	2.23
1 goal in 2nd half	32.1%	33.8%	35.1%	0.96×	2.96
No goals in 2nd half	19.9%	17.0%	22.2%	0.77×	5.89

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lecce not to win both halves	94.4%	94.0%	91.3%	1.03×	1.06
Cagliari not to win both halves	85.8%	88.0%	90.2%	0.98×	1.14
Cagliari to win both halves	14.2%	12.0%	9.8%	1.22×	8.33
Lecce to win both halves	5.6%	6.0%	8.7%	0.69×	16.71

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cagliari to win either half	61.7%	65.3%	52.3%	1.25×	1.53
Lecce to win neither half	58.2%	59.5%	51.7%	1.15×	1.68
Lecce to win either half	41.8%	40.5%	48.3%	0.84×	2.47
Cagliari to win neither half	38.3%	34.7%	47.7%	0.73×	2.88

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lecce not to win to nil	86.7%	88.2%	79.0%	1.12×	1.13
Cagliari not to win to nil	74.6%	75.3%	77.3%	0.97×	1.33
Cagliari to win to nil	25.4%	24.7%	22.7%	1.09×	4.05
Lecce to win to nil	13.3%	11.8%	21.0%	0.56×	8.47

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	24.5%	24.1%	26.7%	0.91×	4.14
Cagliari by 1	23.0%	24.1%	22.2%	1.09×	4.14
Lecce by 1	16.2%	16.9%	20.0%	0.85×	5.90
Cagliari by 2	14.8%	11.8%	9.7%	1.22×	8.46
Cagliari by 3+	10.8%	11.8%	7.7%	1.54×	8.47
Lecce by 2	7.4%	7.2%	8.5%	0.85×	13.80
Lecce by 3+	3.3%	2.7%	5.9%	0.46×	36.96