Cagliari v Lecce — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Monday 7 September 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2627

Serie A xG Prediction generated 5 Sep 2026, 18:39 UTC

Cagliari

1–0

1.92 – 0.45 xG

Lecce

Shots

20 – 10

On target

9 – 3

Shots in box

11 – 4

xG per shot

0.10 – 0.04

Set-piece xG

0.66 – 0.17

Goals − xG

-0.92 – -0.45

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Final pre-match price, taken 7 Sep, 07:51 · 8h before kick-off

Cagliari win

54.6%

model 50.6%

Draw

22.7%

model 24.6%

Lecce win

22.7%

model 24.8%

552323

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (372 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 11.7%
1-0 10.9%
2-1 9.6%
2-0 8.9%
0-1 7.1%

Goals

Over 2.5	51.0%	Under 2.5	49.0%
BTTS yes	53.1%	BTTS no	46.9%
Cagliari 1+	80.6%	Cagliari 2+	48.8%
Lecce 1+	65.8%	Lecce 2+	29.1%

Expected goals 1.64 – 1.07. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

98/100

Data quality

100/100

Model agreement

98%

★ Best pick

Cagliari (-0.5)

Asian handicap · usually 39%

51.8% fair odds 1.93

strong signal · 897 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Cagliari or draw (1UP)

Double chance 1UP · usually 71%

84.4% fair odds 1.19

moderate signal · 498 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Cagliari have created 1.50 xG a match over their last five while Lecce have allowed 2.21.
Form is good: 1.80 points a match from the last five.
At home Cagliari average 1.42 xG a match.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Cagliari have an estimated 54.6% win probability, against 22.7% for Lecce and 22.7% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.64 for Cagliari and 1.07 for Lecce.

Why Cagliari

Cagliari have created 1.50 xG a match over their last five while Lecce have allowed 2.21. Form is good: 1.80 points a match from the last five. At home Cagliari average 1.42 xG a match.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 22.7%. Draws run at 27% in this competition.

Why Lecce can win

Lecce have created 1.31 xG a match over their last five while Cagliari have allowed 1.60. Form is good: 1.80 points a match from the last five. Away from home Lecce average 1.37 xG a match.

Key players

Cagliari's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Sebastiano Esposito (0.33), Paul Mendy (0.23), Gennaro Borrelli (0.19). Lecce's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Walid Cheddira (0.26), Willem Geubbels (0.26), Nikola Stulic (0.24).

Availability

2 of Cagliari's top three contributors did not start their last match. 36% of Cagliari's last eleven are new to the club this window. 2 of Lecce's top three contributors did not start their last match.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Cagliari: 49% possession, 16.8 shots a match, 15.8 faced, 0.82 xG a match from set pieces. Lecce: 32% possession, 9.4 shots a match, 14.4 faced, 0.41 xG a match from set pieces. Cagliari's shot volume meets a defence that concedes shots freely.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-07 06:03 · team_stats 2026-09-07 06:05 · availability 2026-09-07 07:51 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·

Cagliari are the model's most likely outcome at 54.6%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 11.7%. Confidence 98/100, data quality 100/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Cagliari are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.8 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 7.4 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.

LWWWLWWWDL last 10 scored 10 from 15.8 xG conceded 11 from 18.4 xG

Lecce are finishing below their chances — 3.0 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 8.2 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.

LWWWLLWLLW last 10 scored 13 from 16.0 xG conceded 15 from 23.2 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS	Outcome
ai-blend	512525	1.64–1.07	0%	0%	0%	Home ✓
ai-blend-oos	492526	1.39–0.92	0%	0%	0%	Home ✓
dc-xg	492427	1.64–1.16	1-1 12%	53%	55%	Home ✓
dc-xg-oos	492427	1.64–1.16	1-1 12%	53%	55%	Home ✓
deep	512525	1.63–1.06	1-1 12%	50%	53%	Home ✓

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cagliari to win	50.7%	51.5%	39.7%	1.30×	1.94
Draw	24.7%	24.4%	26.7%	0.91×	4.09
Lecce to win	24.6%	24.4%	33.7%	0.72×	4.09

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cagliari & not both score	27.9%	25.1%	22.5%	1.11×	3.98
Cagliari & both teams score	22.8%	21.8%	17.2%	1.27×	4.59
Draw & both teams score	17.9%	18.0%	18.8%	0.95×	5.57
Lecce & not both score	12.8%	13.3%	20.7%	0.64×	7.53
Lecce & both teams score	11.8%	13.3%	13.2%	1.01×	7.53
Draw & not both score	6.8%	8.3%	8.0%	1.04×	12.01

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cagliari & over 1.5	39.6%	34.8%	29.4%	1.18×	2.87
Cagliari & under 3.5	34.6%	30.8%	29.6%	1.04×	3.25
Cagliari & over 2.5	30.6%	30.8%	22.8%	1.35×	3.25
Cagliari & under 2.5	20.1%	21.6%	17.0%	1.27×	4.63
Lecce & under 3.5	18.5%	18.0%	26.5%	0.68×	5.56
Draw & over 1.5	17.9%	18.0%	18.8%	0.95×	5.56
Draw & under 2.5	18.5%	18.0%	19.8%	0.91×	5.56
Draw & under 3.5	18.5%	18.0%	19.8%	0.91×	5.56
Lecce & over 1.5	17.4%	18.0%	24.5%	0.73×	5.56
Cagliari & over 3.5	16.1%	18.0%	10.2%	1.76×	5.56
Lecce & over 2.5	13.6%	12.9%	17.9%	0.72×	7.78
Cagliari & under 1.5	11.1%	12.9%	10.3%	1.24×	7.78
Lecce & under 2.5	11.0%	12.9%	16.0%	0.80×	7.78
Draw & under 1.5	6.8%	7.9%	8.0%	0.99×	12.63
Draw & over 2.5	6.1%	7.9%	7.0%	1.13×	12.63
Draw & over 3.5	6.1%	7.9%	7.0%	1.13×	12.63
Lecce & under 1.5	7.2%	7.9%	9.4%	0.85×	12.63
Lecce & over 3.5	6.1%	7.9%	7.4%	1.07×	12.63

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cagliari (1UP)	64.9%	62.6%	55.0%	1.14×	1.60
Lecce (1UP)	42.1%	38.9%	50.9%	0.77×	2.57

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cagliari (2UP)	50.7%	55.0%	41.5%	1.32×	1.82
Lecce (2UP)	24.6%	23.6%	36.3%	0.65×	4.24

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cagliari to win 2nd half	43.2%	41.7%	35.0%	1.19×	2.40
2nd half drawn	34.9%	34.1%	35.2%	0.97×	2.93
Lecce to win 2nd half	21.9%	23.8%	29.9%	0.79×	4.21

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lecce under 1.5 in 2nd half	88.0%	87.5%	85.1%	1.03×	1.14
Lecce under 0.5 in 2nd half	55.1%	55.0%	50.0%	1.10×	1.82
Lecce over 0.5 in 2nd half	44.9%	45.0%	50.0%	0.90×	2.22
Lecce over 1.5 in 2nd half	12.0%	12.5%	14.9%	0.84×	8.02

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cagliari under 1.5 in 2nd half	74.8%	74.2%	81.3%	0.91×	1.35
Cagliari over 0.5 in 2nd half	62.0%	63.0%	53.8%	1.17×	1.59
Cagliari under 0.5 in 2nd half	38.0%	37.0%	46.2%	0.80×	2.70
Cagliari over 1.5 in 2nd half	25.2%	25.8%	18.7%	1.38×	3.87

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lecce (+2.5)	88.6%	88.5%	92.5%	0.96×	1.13
Cagliari (+0.5)	75.4%	78.5%	66.3%	1.18×	1.27
Lecce (+1.5)	73.1%	73.6%	82.9%	0.89×	1.36
Cagliari (-0.5)	50.7%	52.5%	39.7%	1.32×	1.91
Lecce (+0.5)	49.3%	47.6%	60.3%	0.79×	2.10
Cagliari (-1.5)	26.9%	26.4%	17.1%	1.54×	3.79
Lecce (-0.5)	24.6%	21.5%	33.7%	0.64×	4.65
Cagliari (-2.5)	11.4%	11.5%	7.5%	1.53×	8.69

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lecce to concede	80.4%	81.4%	71.4%	1.14×	1.23
Lecce clean sheet	19.6%	18.6%	28.6%	0.65×	5.38

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lecce to concede in 1st half	48.6%	50.2%	41.6%	1.21×	1.99
Lecce clean sheet in 1st half	51.5%	49.8%	58.4%	0.85×	2.01

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lecce to concede in 2nd half	62.0%	60.8%	53.8%	1.13×	1.64
Lecce clean sheet in 2nd half	38.0%	39.2%	46.2%	0.85×	2.55

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lecce under 3.5 goals	97.7%	97.5%	97.0%	1.00×	1.03
Lecce under 2.5 goals	90.9%	92.3%	88.4%	1.04×	1.08
Lecce under 1.5 goals	71.4%	71.9%	65.1%	1.10×	1.39
Lecce over 0.5 goals	65.3%	67.9%	69.6%	0.98×	1.47
Lecce under 0.5 goals	34.7%	32.1%	30.4%	1.05×	3.12
Lecce over 1.5 goals	28.6%	28.1%	34.9%	0.81×	3.56
Lecce over 2.5 goals	9.1%	7.7%	11.6%	0.66×	13.00
Lecce over 3.5 goals	2.3%	2.5%	3.0%	0.85×	39.95

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lecce under 1.5 in 1st half	92.1%	94.0%	90.1%	1.04×	1.06
Lecce under 0.5 in 1st half	63.0%	64.1%	59.0%	1.09×	1.56
Lecce over 0.5 in 1st half	37.0%	35.9%	41.0%	0.87×	2.79
Lecce over 1.5 in 1st half	7.9%	6.0%	9.9%	0.61×	16.69

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lecce scores equally in both	44.9%	44.2%	43.6%	1.01×	2.26
Lecce scores more in 2nd half	31.9%	33.5%	32.9%	1.02×	2.99
Lecce scores more in 1st half	23.1%	21.9%	23.6%	0.93×	4.56

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cagliari (away no bet)	67.3%	66.5%	59.7%	1.11×	1.50
Draw (away no bet)	32.7%	33.5%	40.3%	0.83×	2.98

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lecce even goals	56.0%	56.9%	55.8%	1.02×	1.76
Lecce odd goals	44.0%	43.1%	44.2%	0.97×	2.32

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	85.6%	87.7%	87.2%	1.01×	1.14
Both halves over 1.5 goals	14.4%	12.3%	12.8%	0.96×	8.10

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	63.0%	58.0%	59.6%	0.97×	1.72
Both halves under 1.5 goals	37.0%	42.0%	40.4%	1.04×	2.38

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	55.7%	55.1%	53.0%	1.04×	1.82
Cagliari to score 2+ in a row	40.7%	38.2%	31.4%	1.22×	2.62
Lecce to score 2+ in a row	20.6%	19.5%	27.7%	0.70×	5.13
Either team to score 3+ in a row	20.3%	19.5%	17.2%	1.13×	5.13
Cagliari to score 3+ in a row	15.6%	16.2%	9.7%	1.67×	6.16
Lecce to score 3+ in a row	4.9%	2.7%	7.6%	0.35×	37.15

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	11.7%	11.5%	11.9%	0.96×	8.73
1-0	11.1%	11.5%	10.3%	1.11×	8.73
2-0	9.0%	7.4%	6.8%	1.09×	13.50
2-1	9.6%	7.4%	9.4%	0.79×	13.50
0-0	6.8%	7.4%	8.0%	0.93×	13.50
0-1	7.2%	7.4%	9.4%	0.79×	13.50
1-2	6.2%	7.4%	7.5%	0.99×	13.50
2-2	5.1%	7.4%	6.2%	1.20×	13.50
3-1	5.2%	7.4%	3.0%	2.51×	13.50
3-0	4.9%	1.7%	3.4%	0.50×	58.33
4-3	0.4%	1.7%	0.2%	6.97×	58.35
4-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.2%	6.97×	58.35
Any other score	3.0%	1.7%	2.8%	0.61×	58.34
0-2	3.8%	1.7%	6.8%	0.25×	58.33
0-3	1.3%	1.7%	3.2%	0.54×	58.35
0-4	0.4%	1.7%	1.0%	1.74×	58.35
1-3	2.2%	1.7%	1.8%	0.93×	58.34
1-4	0.6%	1.7%	0.7%	2.32×	58.35
2-3	1.8%	1.7%	3.0%	0.58×	58.34
2-4	0.5%	1.7%	0.2%	6.97×	58.35
3-2	2.8%	1.7%	3.1%	0.56×	58.34
3-3	1.0%	1.7%	0.9%	1.99×	58.35
3-4	0.3%	1.7%	0.2%	6.97×	58.35
4-0	2.0%	1.7%	1.6%	1.07×	58.34
4-1	2.1%	1.7%	1.1%	1.55×	58.34
4-2	1.1%	1.7%	0.1%	13.93×	58.35

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cagliari (2nd half DNB)	66.3%	69.2%	53.9%	1.28×	1.45
Lecce (2nd half DNB)	33.7%	30.8%	46.1%	0.67×	3.24

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cagliari leading at HT (DNB)	61.5%	65.0%	50.7%	1.28×	1.54
Lecce leading at HT (DNB)	38.5%	35.0%	49.3%	0.71×	2.86

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cagliari or draw (1X)	75.4%	75.6%	66.3%	1.14×	1.32
Cagliari or Lecce (12)	75.3%	75.6%	73.3%	1.03×	1.32
Lecce or draw (X2)	49.3%	48.5%	60.3%	0.80×	2.06

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cagliari or draw at HT	78.1%	79.5%	72.8%	1.09×	1.26
Lecce or draw at HT	65.0%	66.5%	72.0%	0.92×	1.51
Cagliari or Lecce at HT	56.9%	56.9%	55.0%	1.03×	1.76

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cagliari or draw (1UP)	75.4%	83.8%	71.6%	1.17×	1.19
Lecce or draw (1UP)	49.3%	53.0%	66.0%	0.80×	1.89

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cagliari or draw in 2nd half	78.1%	76.2%	70.1%	1.09×	1.31
Cagliari or Lecce in 2nd half	65.1%	65.9%	64.8%	1.02×	1.52
Lecce or draw in 2nd half	56.8%	58.3%	65.0%	0.90×	1.72

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	63.0%	61.5%	63.9%	0.96×	1.63
Neither half drawn	37.0%	38.5%	36.1%	1.07×	2.60

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cagliari (DNB)	67.3%	67.3%	54.0%	1.25×	1.49
Lecce (DNB)	32.7%	32.7%	46.0%	0.71×	3.06

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cagliari to score first	56.5%	62.2%	48.2%	1.29×	1.61
Lecce to score first	36.7%	32.7%	44.0%	0.74×	3.05
No goal scored	6.8%	7.4%	8.0%	0.93×	13.45

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	52.5%	51.3%	49.0%	1.05×	1.95
Not both teams to score	47.5%	48.7%	51.0%	0.96×	2.05

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	40.8%	41.5%	37.2%	1.12×	2.41
Not both score & under 2.5	37.9%	38.4%	40.8%	0.94×	2.61
Both score & under 2.5	11.7%	12.4%	11.9%	1.03×	8.09
Not both score & over 2.5	9.6%	8.3%	10.3%	0.80×	12.03

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	86.1%	85.6%	86.5%	0.99×	1.17
Both teams to score 2+	13.9%	14.4%	13.5%	1.06×	6.96

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	72.2%	73.8%	74.6%	0.99×	1.36
Both teams to score in 2nd half	27.8%	26.2%	25.4%	1.03×	3.82

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	59.2%	60.1%	62.9%	0.96×	1.66
Both score 2nd half only	22.8%	20.8%	20.4%	1.02×	4.81
Both score 1st half only	13.0%	10.7%	11.8%	0.90×	9.37
Both score in both halves	5.0%	6.8%	5.0%	1.35×	14.62

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	82.0%	83.1%	83.3%	1.00×	1.20
Both teams to score by HT	18.0%	16.9%	16.7%	1.01×	5.91

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	53.4%	53.2%	52.3%	1.02×	1.88
A half without a goal	46.6%	46.8%	47.7%	0.98×	2.14

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	46.6%	47.2%	48.3%	0.98×	2.12
4-6 goals	26.4%	26.6%	23.5%	1.13×	3.76
0-1 goals	25.1%	26.6%	27.5%	0.97×	3.76
7+ goals	2.0%	1.8%	1.0%	1.86×	54.60

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lecce to score exactly 1	36.7%	35.9%	34.9%	1.03×	2.78
Lecce to score exactly 0	34.7%	33.8%	30.4%	1.11×	2.96
Lecce to score exactly 2	19.4%	19.6%	23.4%	0.84×	5.11
Lecce to score 3+	9.1%	8.6%	11.6%	0.74×	11.67

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cagliari to score exactly 1	31.9%	32.5%	32.1%	1.01×	3.07
Cagliari to score exactly 2	26.0%	26.5%	25.0%	1.06×	3.77
Cagliari to score 3+	22.5%	23.3%	14.5%	1.60×	4.29
Cagliari to score exactly 0	19.6%	18.8%	28.6%	0.66×	5.31

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	43.1%	43.1%	45.0%	0.96×	2.32
Cagliari leading at HT	35.0%	33.5%	28.0%	1.20×	2.98
Lecce leading at HT	21.9%	20.5%	27.2%	0.75×	4.89

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cagliari -1: 2	49.3%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Cagliari -1: 1	26.9%	26.5%	—	—	3.77
Cagliari -1: X	23.8%	23.5%	—	—	4.25

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lecce (0:1)	49.3%	46.1%	60.3%	0.76×	2.17
Cagliari (0:1)	26.9%	27.0%	17.1%	1.58×	3.70
Draw (0:1)	23.8%	24.2%	22.7%	1.07×	4.13

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lecce (0:2)	73.1%	75.7%	82.9%	0.91×	1.32
Draw (0:2)	15.5%	15.2%	9.7%	1.57×	6.56
Cagliari (0:2)	11.4%	11.0%	7.5%	1.46×	9.13

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lecce (0:3)	88.6%	90.7%	92.5%	0.98×	1.10
Draw (0:3)	7.4%	5.8%	4.6%	1.27×	17.26
Cagliari (0:3)	4.0%	2.4%	3.1%	0.77×	42.19

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lecce (0:4)	96.0%	98.1%	96.9%	1.01×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	2.8%	1.2%	2.2%	0.55×	82.53
Cagliari (0:4)	1.2%	1.2%	1.0%	1.23×	82.72

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cagliari (1:0)	75.4%	78.6%	66.3%	1.19×	1.27
Draw (1:0)	15.5%	17.1%	19.7%	0.87×	5.86
Lecce (1:0)	9.2%	6.9%	14.2%	0.49×	14.46

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cagliari (2:0)	90.8%	94.0%	85.8%	1.09×	1.06
Draw (2:0)	6.5%	6.4%	8.6%	0.74×	15.69
Lecce (2:0)	2.6%	2.3%	5.7%	0.41×	43.53

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	47.4%	48.2%	46.4%	1.04×	2.07
1st half highest scoring	27.4%	26.3%	26.5%	0.99×	3.81
Halves equal	25.2%	26.2%	27.2%	0.96×	3.81

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cagliari to concede	65.3%	66.6%	69.6%	0.96×	1.50
Cagliari clean sheet	34.7%	33.4%	30.4%	1.10×	2.99

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cagliari clean sheet in 1st half	63.0%	64.2%	59.0%	1.09×	1.56
Cagliari to concede in 1st half	37.0%	35.8%	41.0%	0.87×	2.79

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cagliari clean sheet in 2nd half	55.1%	55.2%	50.0%	1.10×	1.81
Cagliari to concede in 2nd half	44.9%	44.8%	50.0%	0.90×	2.23

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cagliari under 3.5 goals	91.7%	92.2%	95.4%	0.97×	1.08
Cagliari over 0.5 goals	80.4%	82.2%	71.4%	1.15×	1.22
Cagliari under 2.5 goals	77.5%	77.7%	85.5%	0.91×	1.29
Cagliari under 1.5 goals	51.5%	53.2%	60.6%	0.88×	1.88
Cagliari over 1.5 goals	48.5%	46.8%	39.4%	1.19×	2.14
Cagliari over 2.5 goals	22.5%	22.3%	14.5%	1.53×	4.49
Cagliari under 0.5 goals	19.6%	17.8%	28.6%	0.62×	5.60
Cagliari over 3.5 goals	8.3%	7.8%	4.6%	1.71×	12.84

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cagliari under 1.5 in 1st half	85.6%	90.0%	89.9%	1.00×	1.11
Cagliari over 0.5 in 1st half	48.6%	50.3%	41.6%	1.21×	1.99
Cagliari under 0.5 in 1st half	51.5%	49.7%	58.4%	0.85×	2.01
Cagliari over 1.5 in 1st half	14.4%	10.0%	10.1%	0.99×	9.98

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cagliari scores more in 2nd half	41.4%	42.1%	36.5%	1.16×	2.37
Cagliari scores equally in both	34.3%	33.1%	42.1%	0.79×	3.02
Cagliari scores more in 1st half	24.3%	21.3%	21.6%	0.99×	4.69

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw (home no bet)	50.0%	51.4%	44.2%	1.16×	1.94
Lecce (home no bet)	50.0%	48.6%	55.8%	0.87×	2.06

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cagliari even goals	51.9%	50.7%	56.5%	0.90×	1.97
Cagliari odd goals	48.1%	49.3%	43.5%	1.13×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	32.4%	32.8%	34.1%	0.96×	3.05
HT 1-0	21.5%	24.2%	18.6%	1.30×	4.14
HT 0-1	15.0%	10.9%	18.4%	0.59×	9.20
HT 1-1	10.0%	7.0%	10.3%	0.68×	14.31
HT 2-0	7.2%	7.0%	5.5%	1.26×	14.36
Any other HT score	4.1%	2.4%	3.1%	0.77×	42.25
HT 0-2	3.5%	2.4%	5.3%	0.45×	42.30
HT 2-1	3.3%	2.4%	2.3%	1.01×	42.31
HT 1-2	2.3%	2.4%	2.6%	0.91×	42.38
HT 2-2	0.8%	2.4%	0.7%	3.19×	42.48

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cagliari at HT / Cagliari at FT	29.0%	27.1%	21.6%	1.26×	3.69
Draw at HT / Cagliari at FT	18.6%	16.8%	15.9%	1.06×	5.95
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	15.1%	16.8%	16.3%	1.03×	5.97
Lecce at HT / Lecce at FT	13.7%	12.6%	19.0%	0.67×	7.91
Draw at HT / Lecce at FT	9.5%	6.1%	13.1%	0.47×	16.37
Lecce at HT / Draw at FT	5.1%	6.1%	6.0%	1.00×	16.50
Cagliari at HT / Draw at FT	4.5%	3.5%	4.7%	0.74×	28.83
Lecce at HT / Cagliari at FT	3.1%	3.5%	2.5%	1.41×	28.88
Cagliari at HT / Lecce at FT	1.5%	3.5%	2.0%	1.75×	28.95

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cagliari to score last	56.5%	56.1%	48.3%	1.16×	1.78
Lecce to score last	36.7%	38.8%	43.8%	0.89×	2.58
No goal scored	6.8%	7.4%	8.0%	0.93×	13.45

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	93.2%	92.7%	92.0%	1.01×	1.08
Cagliari to lead by 1 at any time	64.9%	61.0%	55.0%	1.11×	1.64
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	47.0%	44.4%	43.0%	1.03×	2.26
Lecce to lead by 1 at any time	42.1%	39.2%	50.9%	0.77×	2.55
Cagliari to lead by 2 at any time	33.2%	29.6%	23.4%	1.27×	3.38
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	17.4%	15.0%	14.5%	1.03×	6.65
Lecce to lead by 2 at any time	14.0%	10.5%	20.1%	0.52×	9.54
Cagliari to lead by 3 at any time	13.7%	10.5%	8.4%	1.25×	9.55
Lecce to lead by 3 at any time	3.7%	1.7%	6.3%	0.27×	59.98

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	87.6%	87.4%	89.2%	0.98×	1.14
1-4 goals	79.7%	78.7%	80.7%	0.98×	1.27
2-6 goals	72.9%	72.4%	71.7%	1.01×	1.38
2-5 goals	69.4%	68.8%	69.7%	0.99×	1.45
1-3 goals	64.8%	63.4%	67.7%	0.94×	1.58
2-4 goals	61.4%	63.4%	61.2%	1.04×	1.58
3-6 goals	48.4%	48.5%	46.6%	1.04×	2.06
2-3 goals	46.6%	48.5%	48.3%	1.01×	2.06
3-5 goals	44.8%	43.6%	44.6%	0.98×	2.29
1-2 goals	42.8%	43.6%	44.7%	0.98×	2.29
3-4 goals	36.8%	39.2%	36.1%	1.09×	2.55
4-6 goals	26.4%	30.3%	23.5%	1.29×	3.31
4-5 goals	22.8%	24.5%	21.6%	1.14×	4.08
5-6 goals	11.5%	14.8%	10.6%	1.40×	6.75
7+ goals	2.0%	2.5%	1.0%	2.59×	39.24

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cagliari never behind	51.1%	62.5%	49.1%	1.27×	1.60
Lecce never behind	28.4%	30.2%	45.0%	0.67×	3.31

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	49.8%	50.9%	51.6%	0.99×	1.96
Even number of goals	50.2%	49.1%	48.4%	1.01×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	55.2%	57.4%	56.5%	1.02×	1.74
Odd goals in 1st half	44.8%	42.6%	43.5%	0.98×	2.35

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	52.2%	51.9%	50.9%	1.02×	1.93
Odd goals in 2nd half	47.8%	48.1%	49.1%	0.98×	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 5.5 goals	94.4%	92.3%	97.0%	0.95×	1.08
Over 0.5 goals	93.2%	92.3%	92.0%	1.00×	1.08
Under 4.5 goals	86.4%	87.6%	88.5%	0.99×	1.14
Over 1.5 goals	74.9%	72.5%	72.5%	1.00×	1.38
Under 3.5 goals	71.6%	72.4%	75.6%	0.96×	1.38
Over 2.5 goals	50.4%	52.5%	47.4%	1.11×	1.91
Under 2.5 goals	49.6%	47.5%	52.6%	0.90×	2.10
Over 3.5 goals	28.4%	27.6%	24.4%	1.13×	3.63
Under 1.5 goals	25.1%	27.5%	27.5%	1.00×	3.63
Over 4.5 goals	13.6%	12.4%	11.5%	1.08×	8.07
Under 0.5 goals	6.8%	7.7%	8.0%	0.97×	12.93
Over 5.5 goals	5.6%	7.7%	3.0%	2.62×	12.94

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	97.9%	97.2%	99.0%	0.98×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	93.9%	92.4%	96.8%	0.96×	1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	84.1%	81.1%	86.8%	0.93×	1.23
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	66.8%	67.4%	63.3%	1.06×	1.48
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	63.6%	61.9%	68.3%	0.91×	1.62
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	36.4%	38.1%	31.7%	1.20×	2.63
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	33.2%	32.6%	36.7%	0.89×	3.07
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	15.9%	18.9%	13.2%	1.44×	5.29
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	6.1%	7.6%	3.2%	2.35×	13.19
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	2.1%	2.8%	1.0%	2.79×	35.72

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	89.5%	88.9%	91.6%	0.97×	1.12
Under 1.5 in 1st half	68.9%	68.8%	70.8%	0.97×	1.45
Over 0.5 in 1st half	67.6%	68.7%	65.9%	1.04×	1.46
Under 0.5 in 1st half	32.4%	31.3%	34.1%	0.92×	3.20
Over 1.5 in 1st half	31.1%	31.2%	29.2%	1.07×	3.20
Over 2.5 in 1st half	10.5%	11.1%	8.4%	1.32×	9.05

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	79.3%	79.8%	82.3%	0.97×	1.25
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	79.0%	79.8%	78.4%	1.02×	1.25
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	53.7%	53.1%	56.8%	0.93×	1.89
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	46.3%	46.9%	43.2%	1.09×	2.13
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	21.0%	20.2%	21.6%	0.94×	4.95
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	20.7%	20.2%	17.7%	1.14×	4.95

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lecce not to score in both halves	83.4%	84.1%	78.6%	1.07×	1.19
Cagliari not to score in both halves	69.9%	70.3%	76.0%	0.93×	1.42
Cagliari to score in both halves	30.1%	29.7%	24.0%	1.24×	3.37
Lecce to score in both halves	16.6%	15.9%	21.4%	0.74×	6.31

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	52.5%	53.8%	49.0%	1.10×	1.86
Only Cagliari scores	27.9%	26.0%	22.5%	1.16×	3.84
Only Lecce scores	12.8%	11.0%	20.7%	0.53×	9.06
Neither team scores	6.8%	7.1%	8.0%	0.89×	14.04

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	24.6%	22.6%	25.2%	0.90×	4.42
Exactly 3 goals	22.0%	22.6%	23.2%	0.98×	4.42
Exactly 1 goals	18.3%	17.4%	19.6%	0.89×	5.73
Exactly 4 goals	14.8%	12.1%	13.1%	0.93×	8.25
Exactly 5 goals	8.0%	7.6%	8.6%	0.88×	13.13
Exactly 0 goals	6.8%	7.6%	8.0%	0.95×	13.14
6 or more goals	5.6%	7.6%	3.0%	2.57×	13.14

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 1st half	36.5%	37.3%	36.8%	1.01×	2.69
No goals in 1st half	32.4%	35.8%	34.1%	1.05×	2.79
2 goals in 1st half	20.6%	21.6%	20.9%	1.03×	4.64
3+ goals in 1st half	10.5%	10.9%	8.4%	1.31×	9.13

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	46.3%	45.2%	43.2%	1.05×	2.21
1 goal in 2nd half	32.8%	33.7%	35.3%	0.95×	2.97
No goals in 2nd half	21.0%	22.4%	21.6%	1.04×	4.47

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lecce not to win both halves	95.2%	97.1%	91.4%	1.06×	1.03
Cagliari not to win both halves	84.9%	84.1%	90.1%	0.93×	1.19
Cagliari to win both halves	15.1%	15.9%	9.9%	1.61×	6.29
Lecce to win both halves	4.8%	2.9%	8.6%	0.34×	34.19

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cagliari to win either half	63.1%	64.8%	53.1%	1.22×	1.54
Lecce to win neither half	61.0%	64.7%	51.5%	1.26×	1.55
Lecce to win either half	39.0%	35.3%	48.5%	0.73×	2.84
Cagliari to win neither half	36.9%	35.2%	46.9%	0.75×	2.84

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lecce not to win to nil	87.2%	88.1%	79.3%	1.11×	1.14
Cagliari not to win to nil	72.1%	75.3%	77.5%	0.97×	1.33
Cagliari to win to nil	27.9%	24.7%	22.5%	1.09×	4.06
Lecce to win to nil	12.8%	11.9%	20.7%	0.58×	8.41

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	24.7%	24.1%	26.7%	0.90×	4.15
Cagliari by 1	23.8%	24.1%	22.7%	1.06×	4.15
Lecce by 1	15.5%	17.0%	19.7%	0.86×	5.87
Cagliari by 2	15.5%	17.0%	9.7%	1.75×	5.87
Cagliari by 3+	11.4%	11.7%	7.5%	1.56×	8.51
Lecce by 2	6.5%	7.2%	8.6%	0.83×	13.90
Lecce by 3+	2.6%	2.7%	5.7%	0.48×	36.70

Reading the xG timeline

Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

Cagliari 1.92 xGLecce 0.45 xG

Reading the shot map

Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Cagliari attacking right Lecce attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

Min	Team	Player	xG	Situation	Body part	Result	Assisted by
0'	Cagliari	Alessandro Romano	0.01	Open Play	Left Foot	Saved Shot	Paul Mendy
13'	Cagliari	Daniel Maldini	0.08	Open Play	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	Adam Obert
17'	Lecce	Joël Monteiro	0.01	Open Play	Right Foot	Missed Shot	Oumar Ngom
22'	Lecce	Lassana Coulibaly	0.11	Open Play	Right Foot	Saved Shot	Danilo Veiga
22'	Lecce	Oumar Ngom	0.02	From Corner	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	—
28'	Cagliari	Daniel Maldini	0.48	From Corner	—	Goal	Jacopo Fazzini
28'	Cagliari	Jacopo Fazzini	0.02	Open Play	—	Blocked Shot	Zé Pedro
34'	Cagliari	Daniel Maldini	0.10	Open Play	Left Foot	Missed Shot	—
38'	Cagliari	Adam Obert	0.01	Open Play	Left Foot	Saved Shot	—
41'	Lecce	Nikola Stulic	0.06	Open Play	Left Foot	Saved Shot	Joël Monteiro
42'	Lecce	Oumar Ngom	0.01	From Corner	Right Foot	Missed Shot	—
45'	Cagliari	Ndary Adopo	0.01	Set Piece	—	Saved Shot	Jacopo Fazzini
45'	Cagliari	Paul Mendy	0.37	Open Play	Right Foot	Shot On Post	Daniel Maldini
46'	Cagliari	Alessandro Romano	0.03	From Corner	Left Foot	Missed Shot	Jacopo Fazzini
46'	Lecce	Nikola Stulic	0.04	Open Play	Left Foot	Blocked Shot	Lassana Coulibaly
54'	Cagliari	Jacopo Fazzini	0.05	Open Play	Right Foot	Missed Shot	—
57'	Lecce	Ivan Ilic	0.05	Direct Freekick	Left Foot	Missed Shot	—
58'	Cagliari	Daniel Maldini	0.07	Open Play	Right Foot	Missed Shot	Ndary Adopo
62'	Cagliari	Daniel Maldini	0.07	Direct Freekick	Right Foot	Shot On Post	—
63'	Cagliari	Mattia Felici	0.06	Open Play	Right Foot	Saved Shot	—
69'	Cagliari	Paul Mendy	0.02	Open Play	Right Foot	Saved Shot	Mattia Felici
74'	Cagliari	Alieu Fadera	0.09	Open Play	Right Foot	Missed Shot	—
79'	Cagliari	Alieu Fadera	0.07	Open Play	Left Foot	Saved Shot	—
81'	Cagliari	Alessandro Sugamele	0.26	Open Play	Left Foot	Saved Shot	Alieu Fadera
82'	Cagliari	Harry Winks	0.03	From Corner	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	Raphael Kofler
82'	Cagliari	Raphael Kofler	0.05	From Corner	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	Alessandro Romano
83'	Cagliari	Ndary Adopo	0.06	Open Play	Right Foot	Saved Shot	Roberto Gagliardini
83'	Lecce	Amar Ahmed Fatah	0.02	Open Play	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	Lassana Coulibaly
85'	Lecce	Medon Berisha	0.03	Open Play	Left Foot	Saved Shot	Youssef Maleh
96'	Lecce	Jamil Siebert	0.09	Set Piece	Right Foot	Missed Shot	Antonino Gallo

Players

Cagliari

Player	Min	G	A	Sh	KP	xG	xA	xGChain
Ndary Adopo MC	90	0	0	2	1	0.07	0.07	0.18
Alessandro Romano MC	90	0	0	2	1	0.04	0.05	0.27
Harry Winks MC	90	0	0	1	0	0.03	0.00	0.25
Adam Obert DL	90	0	0	1	1	0.01	0.08	0.09
Elia Caprile GK	90	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
Zé Pedro DR	90	0	0	0	1	0.00	0.02	0.04
Alessandro Deiola DC	90	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.09
Paul Mendy FW	76	0	0	2	1	0.39	0.01	0.40
Daniel Maldini AMC	68	1	0	5	1	0.78	0.37	0.60
Juan Rodríguez DC	68	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.07
Jacopo Fazzini AMC	63	0	1	2	3	0.08	0.52	0.15
Alieu Fadera Sub	22	0	0	2	1	0.16	0.26	0.47
Raphael Kofler Sub	22	0	0	1	1	0.05	0.03	0.00
Alessandro Sugamele Sub	14	0	0	1	0	0.26	0.00	0.41
Roberto Gagliardini Sub	14	0	0	0	1	0.00	0.06	0.06
Mattia Felici Sub	13	0	0	1	1	0.06	0.02	0.08

Lecce

Player	Min	Sh	KP	xG	xA	xGChain
Lassana Coulibaly AMC	90	1	2	0.11	0.06	0.20
Nikola Stulic FW	90	2	0	0.10	0.00	0.21
Danilo Veiga DR	90	0	1	0.00	0.11	0.12
Antonino Gallo DL	90	0	1	0.00	0.09	0.08
Wladimiro Falcone GK	90	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.02
Tiago Gabriel DC	90	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.18
Santiago Pierotti AMR	84	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.16
Ivan Ilic DMC	68	1	0	0.05	0.00	0.19
Joël Monteiro AML	68	1	1	0.01	0.06	0.08
Kialonda Gaspar DC	68	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.08
Oumar Ngom DMC	48	2	1	0.03	0.01	0.16
Amar Ahmed Fatah Sub	42	1	0	0.02	0.00	0.02
Jamil Siebert Sub	22	1	0	0.09	0.00	0.05
Konan N’Dri Sub	22	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
Youssef Maleh Sub	22	0	1	0.00	0.03	0.05
Medon Berisha Sub	6	1	0	0.03	0.00	0.03

Cagliari v Lecce — Prediction, Odds & Stats

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