Cagliari v Udinese — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 3 May 2025 · ITA-Serie A · 2425
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
8 – 11
On target
2 – 3
Shots in box
8 – 10
xG per shot
0.12 – 0.17
Set-piece xG
0.15 – 0.87
Goals − xG
+0.05 – +0.08
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Cagliari win
34.6%
Draw
32.5%
Udinese win
32.9%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Cagliari are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.1 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 6.0 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WLWDLWWWLW last 10
scored 10
from 15.1 xG
conceded 10
from 16.0 xG
Udinese are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.7 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WLDWWLLDWL last 10
scored 15
from 14.4 xG
conceded 11
from 15.7 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.16–1.12 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.40–1.20 | 1-1 12% | 48% | 53% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Cagliari 0.95 xGUdinese 1.92 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Cagliari attacking right
Udinese attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9' |
 Cagliari |
Roberto Piccoli | 0.02 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Zito |
| 9' |
Cagliari |
Roberto Piccoli | 0.33 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 25' |
Cagliari |
Roberto Piccoli | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Zito |
| 26' |
 Udinese |
Oier Zarraga | 0.13 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Rui Modesto |
| 34' |
Cagliari |
Nadir Zortea | 0.29 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Antoine Makoumbou |
| 36' |
Udinese |
Keinan Davis | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Jesper Karlström |
| 40' |
Udinese |
Keinan Davis | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 47' |
Cagliari |
Zito | 0.05 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Gabriele Zappa |
| 53' |
Udinese |
Sandi Lovric | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Keinan Davis |
| 56' |
Udinese |
Jesper Karlström | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 59' |
Udinese |
Oier Zarraga | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Rui Modesto |
| 62' |
Udinese |
Sandi Lovric | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Keinan Davis |
| 65' |
Udinese |
Keinan Davis | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Oumar Solet |
| 66' |
Udinese |
Arthur Atta | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Rui Modesto |
| 66' |
Udinese |
Thomas Thiesson Kristensen | 0.87 | From Corner | — | Goal | Hassane Kamara |
| 74' |
Cagliari |
Ndary Adopo | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Mattia Felici |
| 80' |
Cagliari |
José Luis Palomino | 0.06 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Gianluca Gaetano |
| 87' |
Cagliari |
Roberto Piccoli | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Alessandro Deiola |
| 90' |
Udinese |
Alexis Sánchez | 0.47 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jurgen Ekkelenkamp |
Players
Udinese
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Thiesson Kristensen DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.87 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Arthur Atta AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| Jesper Karlström MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.05 | 0.80 |
| Hassane Kamara DML | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.87 | 0.13 |
| Jaka Bijol DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| Maduka Okoye GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Oumar Solet DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.13 |
| Sandi Lovric MC | 86 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.24 |
| Oier Zarraga MC | 79 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.19 | 0.00 | 0.33 |
| Keinan Davis FW | 79 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.18 | 0.12 | 0.37 |
| Rui Modesto DMR | 79 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| Alexis Sánchez Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.47 | 0.00 | 0.47 |
| Lautaro Giannetti Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Iker Bravo Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jurgen Ekkelenkamp Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.47 | 0.47 |
Cagliari
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roberto Piccoli FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.51 | 0.00 | 0.51 |
| José Luis Palomino DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Ndary Adopo MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Elia Caprile GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Gabriele Zappa DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| Sebastiano Luperto DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.29 |
| Zito FW | 80 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.05 | 0.14 | 0.14 |
| Tommaso Augello DML | 80 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.29 |
| Nadir Zortea DMR | 74 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.29 | 0.00 | 0.31 |
| Razvan Marin MC | 70 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.29 |
| Antoine Makoumbou MC | 70 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| Alessandro Deiola Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| Gianluca Gaetano Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.04 |
| Mattia Felici Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.04 |
| Florinel Coman Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Adam Obert Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |