Cagliari v Udinese — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 9 May 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2526
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
22 – 9
On target
3 – 6
Shots in box
15 – 6
xG per shot
0.07 – 0.26
Set-piece xG
0.15 – 0.03
Goals − xG
-1.60 – -0.31
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Cagliari win
30.7%
Draw
26.9%
Udinese win
42.4%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Cagliari are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.4 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 6.9 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWWLWWWDLL last 10
scored 10
from 14.4 xG
conceded 11
from 17.9 xG
Udinese are conceding fewer than expected — 3.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WLLDWLLLLL last 10
scored 11
from 11.3 xG
conceded 18
from 21.1 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.02–1.26 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.34–1.25 | 1-1 13% | 48% | 53% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Cagliari 1.60 xGUdinese 2.31 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Cagliari attacking right
Udinese attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4' |
 Cagliari |
Juan Rodríguez | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Gianluca Gaetano |
| 7' |
Cagliari |
Michael Folorunsho | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Paul Mendy |
| 8' |
Cagliari |
Marco Palestra | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 17' |
 Udinese |
Jakub Piotrowski | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 22' |
Cagliari |
Michael Folorunsho | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 23' |
Cagliari |
Sebastiano Esposito | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Paul Mendy |
| 26' |
Cagliari |
Michael Folorunsho | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Sebastiano Esposito |
| 30' |
Cagliari |
Gianluca Gaetano | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Sebastiano Esposito |
| 30' |
Cagliari |
Michael Folorunsho | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Zé Pedro |
| 35' |
Cagliari |
Paul Mendy | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Ndary Adopo |
| 36' |
Udinese |
Jakub Piotrowski | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Nicolo Zaniolo |
| 45' |
Cagliari |
Gianluca Gaetano | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Adam Obert |
| 45' |
Cagliari |
Marco Palestra | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 47' |
Cagliari |
Michael Folorunsho | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Sebastiano Esposito |
| 47' |
Cagliari |
Sebastiano Esposito | 0.35 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Ndary Adopo |
| 51' |
Udinese |
Nicolo Zaniolo | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Adam Buksa |
| 51' |
Udinese |
Oumar Solet | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 55' |
Udinese |
Adam Buksa | 0.75 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Hassane Kamara |
| 63' |
Cagliari |
Sebastiano Esposito | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Sulemana |
| 71' |
Cagliari |
Sebastiano Esposito | 0.05 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 75' |
Cagliari |
Alberto Dossena | 0.01 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Sebastiano Esposito |
| 75' |
Cagliari |
Gianluca Gaetano | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 78' |
Cagliari |
Paul Mendy | 0.32 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Gabriele Zappa |
| 78' |
Cagliari |
Paul Mendy | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 79' |
Cagliari |
Paul Mendy | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 84' |
Udinese |
Keinan Davis | 0.31 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Lennon Miller |
| 89' |
Udinese |
Arthur Atta | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Idrissa Gueye |
| 90' |
Cagliari |
Yael Trepy | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Gabriele Zappa |
| 94' |
Udinese |
Keinan Davis | 0.42 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Nicolò Bertola |
| 95' |
Udinese |
Idrissa Gueye | 0.65 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Keinan Davis |
| 97' |
Cagliari |
Yael Trepy | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
Players
Udinese
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arthur Atta MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 1.47 |
| Oumar Solet DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.75 |
| Thomas Thiesson Kristensen DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.31 |
| Maduka Okoye GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jesper Karlström MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.81 |
| Hassane Kamara DML | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.75 | 1.47 |
| Nicolo Zaniolo FW | 81 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.02 | 0.07 |
| Kingsley Ehizibue DMR | 81 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.75 |
| Adam Buksa FW | 68 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.75 | 0.05 | 0.81 |
| Jakub Piotrowski MC | 57 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Branimir Mlacic DC | 57 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Nicolò Bertola Sub | 33 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.42 | 0.42 |
| Lennon Miller Sub | 33 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.31 | 0.38 |
| Keinan Davis Sub | 22 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.72 | 0.65 | 1.38 |
| Idrissa Gueye Sub | 9 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.65 | 0.07 | 0.73 |
| Juan Arizala Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Cagliari
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paul Mendy FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0.50 | 0.04 | 0.59 |
| Sebastiano Esposito FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 0.47 | 0.21 | 1.10 |
| Gianluca Gaetano MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.24 | 0.03 | 0.58 |
| Juan Rodríguez DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.35 |
| Alberto Dossena DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.42 |
| Elia Caprile GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.32 |
| Adam Obert DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.55 |
| Ndary Adopo MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.40 | 0.47 |
| Michael Folorunsho MC | 76 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.53 |
| Marco Palestra DR | 65 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Zé Pedro DC | 65 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.37 |
| Sulemana Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.45 |
| Gabriele Zappa Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.40 | 0.45 |
| Agustín Albarracín Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Yael Trepy Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Andrea Belotti Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |