Cagliari v Venezia — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 18 May 2025 · ITA-Serie A · 2425
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
19 – 10
On target
5 – 1
Shots in box
13 – 7
xG per shot
0.15 – 0.08
Set-piece xG
0.67 – 0.38
Goals − xG
+0.24 – -0.77
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Cagliari win
38.7%
Draw
33.9%
Venezia win
27.4%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Cagliari are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.0 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 4.0 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LWLWDLWWWL last 10
scored 10
from 15.0 xG
conceded 12
from 16.0 xG
Venezia are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.8 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
DWDLDWLLLL last 10
scored 9
from 13.8 xG
conceded 17
from 17.5 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.15–0.93 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.57–1.21 | 1-1 12% | 53% | 56% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Cagliari 2.76 xGVenezia 0.77 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Cagliari attacking right
Venezia attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1' |
 Cagliari |
Zito | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 2' |
Cagliari |
Alessandro Deiola | 0.04 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 2' |
Cagliari |
Roberto Piccoli | 0.01 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Tommaso Augello |
| 2' |
Cagliari |
Sebastiano Luperto | 0.08 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Tommaso Augello |
| 8' |
Cagliari |
Zito | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Alessandro Deiola |
| 9' |
 Venezia |
Hans Nicolussi Caviglia | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Alessio Zerbin |
| 10' |
Cagliari |
Yerry Mina | 0.28 | Set Piece | — | Goal | Tommaso Augello |
| 15' |
Venezia |
Gianluca Busio | 0.06 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Hans Nicolussi Caviglia |
| 23' |
Cagliari |
Roberto Piccoli | 0.64 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Zito |
| 27' |
Venezia |
John Yeboah | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Fali Candé |
| 36' |
Venezia |
Gianluca Busio | 0.08 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Fali Candé |
| 40' |
Cagliari |
Roberto Piccoli | 0.57 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Ndary Adopo |
| 40' |
Cagliari |
Roberto Piccoli | 0.20 | From Corner | — | Goal | Nadir Zortea |
| 43' |
Cagliari |
Roberto Piccoli | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Ndary Adopo |
| 47' |
Cagliari |
Roberto Piccoli | 0.41 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Zito |
| 47' |
Venezia |
Alessio Zerbin | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Christian Gytkjær |
| 48' |
Venezia |
Hans Nicolussi Caviglia | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | John Yeboah |
| 58' |
Venezia |
Gianluca Busio | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Hans Nicolussi Caviglia |
| 62' |
Cagliari |
Roberto Piccoli | 0.12 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Gianluca Gaetano |
| 66' |
Cagliari |
Nadir Zortea | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Antoine Makoumbou |
| 70' |
Cagliari |
Alessandro Deiola | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Antoine Makoumbou |
| 77' |
Venezia |
Christian Gytkjær | 0.15 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Alessio Zerbin |
| 79' |
Venezia |
Issa Doumbia | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Mirko Maric |
| 80' |
Cagliari |
Razvan Marin | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 83' |
Cagliari |
Gianluca Gaetano | 0.04 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 83' |
Cagliari |
Tommaso Augello | 0.01 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 87' |
Venezia |
Christian Gytkjær | 0.31 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Hans Nicolussi Caviglia |
| 88' |
Cagliari |
Matteo Prati | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 93' |
Cagliari |
Roberto Piccoli | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Nicolas Viola |
Players
Cagliari
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roberto Piccoli FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 2.05 | 0.00 | 1.90 |
| Yerry Mina DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.28 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Sebastiano Luperto DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.76 |
| Nadir Zortea DMR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.20 | 1.00 |
| Tommaso Augello DML | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0.01 | 0.38 | 0.12 |
| Ndary Adopo MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.62 | 0.62 |
| Gabriele Zappa DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Elia Caprile GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Alessandro Deiola MC | 79 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.08 | 0.14 |
| Antoine Makoumbou MC | 78 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.84 |
| Zito FW | 61 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.13 | 1.05 | 1.18 |
| Gianluca Gaetano Sub | 29 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.12 | 0.18 |
| Matteo Prati Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Razvan Marin Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Nicolas Viola Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.06 |
| Nicola Pintus Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Venezia
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gianluca Busio MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.00 | 0.28 |
| Alessio Zerbin DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.08 | 0.15 | 0.24 |
| Hans Nicolussi Caviglia MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.02 | 0.38 | 0.24 |
| Ionut Radu GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Fali Candé DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.14 |
| Jay Idzes DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Kike Pérez MC | 79 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| John Yeboah FW | 74 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.11 |
| Mikael Ellertsson DML | 74 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Joël Schingtienne DC | 74 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Christian Gytkjær Sub | 59 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.46 | 0.08 | 0.23 |
| Gaetano Oristanio FW | 31 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mirko Maric Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| Ridgeciano Haps Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Francesco Zampano Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Issa Doumbia Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.05 |