Cagliari v Venezia — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 13 December 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2627

Serie A xG Prediction generated 18 Sep 2026, 10:37 UTC

Cagliari

14:00 UTC

Venezia

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 21 Oct, 11:05 · 1,275h before kick-off

Cagliari win

38.4%

model 38.7%

Draw

23.2%

model 24.1%

Venezia win

38.4%

model 37.2%

382338

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (648 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 11.1%
2-1 8.5%
1-2 8.3%
1-0 7.4%
0-1 7.2%

Goals

Over 2.5	58.5%	Under 2.5	41.5%
BTTS yes	61.0%	BTTS no	39.0%
Cagliari 1+	78.5%	Cagliari 2+	45.4%
Venezia 1+	77.7%	Venezia 2+	44.3%

Expected goals 1.54 – 1.50. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

84/100

Data quality

90/100

Model agreement

88%

★ Best pick

Venezia over 0.5 in 1st half

Away goals O/U 1HT · usually 41%

59.4% fair odds 1.68

moderate signal · 513 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Venezia (0:2)

Handicap 0:2 · usually 83%

83.5% fair odds 1.20

moderate signal · 504 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.
At home Cagliari average 1.28 xG a match.

Risk factors

The component models disagree more than usual (agreement 0.88).

Why the model thinks this

The price

Cagliari have an estimated 38.4% win probability, against 38.4% for Venezia and 23.2% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.54 for Cagliari and 1.50 for Venezia.

Why Cagliari

Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five. At home Cagliari average 1.28 xG a match.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 23.2%. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.54 to 1.50. Draws run at 27% in this competition.

Why Venezia can win

Venezia carry the stronger rating, 1560 Elo against 1528.

Key players

Cagliari's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Daniel Maldini (0.35), Sebastiano Esposito (0.33), Paul Mendy (0.30). Venezia's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Akor Adams (0.38), John Yeboah (0.35), Antoine Hainaut (0.31).

Availability

1 of Cagliari's top three contributors did not start their last match. 36% of Cagliari's last eleven are new to the club this window. 64% of Venezia's last eleven are new to the club this window.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Cagliari: 40% possession, 10.0 shots a match, 18.8 faced, 0.36 xG a match from set pieces. Venezia: 53% possession, 14.0 shots a match, 19.0 faced, 0.39 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-21 11:56 · team_stats 2026-10-20 06:04 · availability 2026-10-21 15:05 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Cagliari are the model's most likely outcome at 38.4%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 11.1%. Confidence 84/100, data quality 90/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

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Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Cagliari are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.8 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 7.4 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.

LWWWLWWWDL last 10 scored 10 from 15.8 xG conceded 11 from 18.4 xG

Venezia are finishing sharply below their chances — 6.4 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.

WLLLLLLLLW last 10 scored 10 from 16.4 xG conceded 23 from 23.3 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	392437	1.54–1.50	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	512327	1.84–1.28	1-1 10%	60%	61%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cagliari to win	48.4%	47.4%	40.0%	1.18×	2.11
Venezia to win	29.1%	27.9%	33.7%	0.83×	3.58
Draw	22.5%	24.4%	26.4%	0.92×	4.09

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cagliari & both teams score	27.6%	25.2%	17.5%	1.44×	3.97
Cagliari & not both score	20.7%	21.8%	22.6%	0.97×	4.59
Draw & both teams score	18.7%	18.0%	18.6%	0.96×	5.57
Venezia & both teams score	17.4%	18.0%	13.2%	1.36×	5.57
Venezia & not both score	11.7%	13.3%	20.6%	0.65×	7.54
Draw & not both score	3.8%	4.9%	7.9%	0.61×	20.58

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cagliari & over 1.5	41.3%	40.3%	29.9%	1.34×	2.48
Cagliari & over 2.5	34.7%	30.8%	23.3%	1.32×	3.25
Cagliari & under 3.5	27.1%	26.1%	29.6%	0.88×	3.84
Venezia & over 1.5	23.7%	21.6%	24.6%	0.88×	4.63
Cagliari & over 3.5	21.3%	21.6%	10.6%	2.04×	4.63
Venezia & over 2.5	20.0%	18.0%	18.1%	0.99×	5.56
Draw & over 1.5	18.7%	18.0%	18.6%	0.97×	5.56
Venezia & under 3.5	17.8%	18.0%	26.3%	0.68×	5.56
Cagliari & under 2.5	13.7%	12.8%	16.8%	0.76×	7.79
Draw & under 2.5	13.8%	12.8%	19.7%	0.65×	7.79
Draw & under 3.5	13.8%	12.8%	19.7%	0.65×	7.79
Venezia & over 3.5	11.2%	12.8%	7.5%	1.72×	7.79
Draw & over 2.5	8.8%	7.9%	6.9%	1.16×	12.63
Draw & over 3.5	8.8%	7.9%	6.9%	1.16×	12.63
Venezia & under 2.5	9.1%	7.9%	15.6%	0.51×	12.63
Cagliari & under 1.5	7.1%	7.9%	10.2%	0.78×	12.63
Venezia & under 1.5	5.3%	7.9%	9.1%	0.87×	12.63
Draw & under 1.5	3.8%	4.8%	7.9%	0.61×	20.81

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cagliari (1UP)	65.5%	69.9%	55.3%	1.27×	1.43
Venezia (1UP)	49.4%	44.1%	50.5%	0.87×	2.27

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cagliari (2UP)	48.4%	50.2%	41.8%	1.20×	1.99
Venezia (2UP)	29.1%	25.3%	36.2%	0.70×	3.95

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cagliari to win 2nd half	51.0%	51.3%	35.0%	1.47×	1.95
2nd half drawn	28.6%	25.8%	35.0%	0.74×	3.88
Venezia to win 2nd half	20.3%	24.1%	30.2%	0.80×	4.15

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Venezia under 1.5 in 2nd half	83.8%	84.4%	85.1%	0.99×	1.19
Venezia over 0.5 in 2nd half	51.2%	52.5%	50.0%	1.05×	1.90
Venezia under 0.5 in 2nd half	48.8%	47.5%	50.0%	0.95×	2.11
Venezia over 1.5 in 2nd half	16.2%	15.6%	14.9%	1.05×	6.42

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cagliari over 0.5 in 2nd half	73.3%	74.0%	53.7%	1.38×	1.35
Cagliari under 1.5 in 2nd half	62.0%	63.2%	81.5%	0.78×	1.58
Cagliari over 1.5 in 2nd half	38.0%	36.8%	18.5%	1.99×	2.72
Cagliari under 0.5 in 2nd half	26.7%	26.0%	46.3%	0.56×	3.85

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Venezia (+2.5)	87.7%	88.5%	92.3%	0.96×	1.13
Venezia (+1.5)	73.1%	73.7%	82.5%	0.89×	1.36
Cagliari (+0.5)	70.9%	73.6%	66.3%	1.11×	1.36
Venezia (+0.5)	51.6%	52.4%	60.0%	0.87×	1.91
Cagliari (-0.5)	48.4%	47.6%	40.0%	1.19×	2.10
Venezia (-0.5)	29.1%	26.4%	33.7%	0.78×	3.79
Cagliari (-1.5)	26.9%	26.3%	17.5%	1.50×	3.80
Cagliari (-2.5)	12.3%	11.5%	7.7%	1.50×	8.67

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Venezia to concede	84.5%	81.6%	71.6%	1.14×	1.23
Venezia clean sheet	15.5%	18.4%	28.4%	0.65×	5.42

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Venezia clean sheet in 1st half	58.0%	57.0%	57.9%	0.98×	1.75
Venezia to concede in 1st half	42.0%	43.0%	42.1%	1.02×	2.33

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Venezia to concede in 2nd half	73.3%	71.0%	53.7%	1.32×	1.41
Venezia clean sheet in 2nd half	26.7%	29.0%	46.3%	0.63×	3.45

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Venezia under 6.5 corners	81.7%	81.4%	—	—	1.23
Venezia over 2.5 corners	72.9%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
Venezia under 5.5 corners	71.9%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
Venezia under 4.5 corners	58.9%	57.2%	—	—	1.75
Venezia over 3.5 corners	56.6%	57.2%	—	—	1.75
Venezia under 3.5 corners	43.4%	42.8%	—	—	2.33
Venezia over 4.5 corners	41.1%	42.8%	—	—	2.33
Venezia over 5.5 corners	28.1%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
Venezia under 2.5 corners	27.1%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
Venezia over 6.5 corners	18.3%	18.6%	—	—	5.38

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Venezia under 3.5 goals	94.6%	92.4%	97.1%	0.95×	1.08
Venezia under 2.5 goals	83.2%	81.5%	88.1%	0.92×	1.23
Venezia over 0.5 goals	75.5%	76.2%	69.6%	1.10×	1.31
Venezia under 1.5 goals	59.0%	59.4%	65.0%	0.91×	1.68
Venezia over 1.5 goals	41.0%	40.6%	35.0%	1.16×	2.47
Venezia under 0.5 goals	24.5%	23.8%	30.4%	0.78×	4.21
Venezia over 2.5 goals	16.8%	18.5%	11.9%	1.56×	5.40
Venezia over 3.5 goals	5.4%	7.6%	2.9%	2.65×	13.08

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Venezia under 1.5 in 1st half	84.9%	83.2%	89.9%	0.93×	1.20
Venezia under 0.5 in 1st half	50.3%	55.4%	58.8%	0.94×	1.81
Venezia over 0.5 in 1st half	49.7%	44.6%	41.2%	1.08×	2.24
Venezia over 1.5 in 1st half	15.1%	16.8%	10.1%	1.66×	5.95

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Venezia scores equally in both	38.2%	37.4%	43.4%	0.86×	2.68
Venezia scores more in 2nd half	31.8%	33.6%	32.8%	1.02×	2.97
Venezia scores more in 1st half	29.9%	26.4%	23.9%	1.10×	3.79

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cagliari (away no bet)	68.2%	66.4%	60.2%	1.10×	1.51
Draw (away no bet)	31.8%	33.6%	39.8%	0.84×	2.98

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Venezia even goals	53.0%	52.6%	55.5%	0.95×	1.90
Venezia odd goals	47.0%	47.4%	44.5%	1.07×	2.11

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	78.9%	81.4%	87.3%	0.93×	1.23
Both halves over 1.5 goals	21.1%	18.6%	12.7%	1.46×	5.38

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	74.2%	67.5%	60.2%	1.12×	1.48
Both halves under 1.5 goals	25.8%	32.5%	39.8%	0.82×	3.07

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	65.2%	62.2%	53.4%	1.17×	1.61
Cagliari to score 2+ in a row	45.3%	46.0%	31.7%	1.45×	2.17
Venezia to score 2+ in a row	29.8%	25.3%	27.8%	0.91×	3.96
Either team to score 3+ in a row	26.5%	25.2%	17.9%	1.41×	3.97
Cagliari to score 3+ in a row	18.3%	16.3%	10.1%	1.61×	6.14
Venezia to score 3+ in a row	8.8%	5.6%	7.9%	0.71×	17.85

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cagliari corners (+3.5)	86.9%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Cagliari corners (+2.5)	80.4%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Venezia corners (+3.5)	77.8%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
Cagliari corners (+1.5)	72.1%	70.7%	—	—	1.41
Venezia corners (+2.5)	69.3%	65.9%	—	—	1.52
Venezia corners (+1.5)	59.4%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Cagliari corners (-1.5)	40.6%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Cagliari corners (-2.5)	30.7%	34.1%	—	—	2.93
Venezia corners (-1.5)	27.9%	29.3%	—	—	3.42
Cagliari corners (-3.5)	22.2%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
Venezia corners (-2.5)	19.6%	20.2%	—	—	4.94
Venezia corners (-3.5)	13.1%	15.5%	—	—	6.45

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	46.2%	41.7%	—	—	2.40
9-11 corners	27.9%	31.2%	—	—	3.21
12+ corners	25.9%	31.2%	—	—	3.21

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	80.9%	80.7%	—	—	1.24
Under 11.5 corners	74.1%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Under 10.5 corners	65.9%	67.8%	—	—	1.48
Over 7.5 corners	64.4%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Under 9.5 corners	56.5%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Over 8.5 corners	53.8%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Under 8.5 corners	46.2%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Over 9.5 corners	43.5%	42.1%	—	—	2.37
Under 7.5 corners	35.6%	36.8%	—	—	2.72
Over 10.5 corners	34.1%	32.2%	—	—	3.11
Over 11.5 corners	25.9%	27.5%	—	—	3.64
Over 12.5 corners	19.1%	19.3%	—	—	5.17

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.1%	—	—	2.00
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.9%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	10.0%	7.4%	11.9%	0.62×	13.50
2-1	9.3%	7.4%	9.4%	0.79×	13.50
1-0	7.1%	7.4%	10.2%	0.72×	13.51
1-2	7.0%	7.4%	7.5%	0.99×	13.51
2-0	6.6%	7.4%	6.7%	1.10×	13.51
2-2	6.5%	7.4%	6.0%	1.23×	13.51
0-1	5.3%	7.4%	9.1%	0.81×	13.51
3-1	5.8%	7.4%	3.1%	2.37×	13.51
Any other score	5.5%	7.4%	2.8%	2.68×	13.51
0-0	3.8%	1.7%	7.9%	0.22×	58.30
0-2	3.8%	1.7%	6.6%	0.26×	58.30
0-3	1.8%	1.7%	3.5%	0.49×	58.31
0-4	0.6%	1.7%	1.0%	1.78×	58.32
1-3	3.3%	1.7%	2.0%	0.84×	58.30
1-4	1.2%	1.7%	0.7%	2.38×	58.31
2-3	3.1%	1.7%	2.9%	0.59×	58.30
2-4	1.1%	1.7%	0.2%	7.13×	58.31
3-0	4.1%	1.7%	3.6%	0.48×	58.30
3-2	4.1%	1.7%	3.1%	0.55×	58.30
3-3	1.9%	1.7%	0.8%	2.04×	58.31
3-4	0.7%	1.7%	0.2%	7.13×	58.32
4-0	1.9%	1.7%	1.7%	1.02×	58.31
4-1	2.7%	1.7%	1.1%	1.59×	58.30
4-2	1.9%	1.7%	0.2%	7.13×	58.31
4-3	0.9%	1.7%	0.2%	7.13×	58.31
4-4	0.3%	1.7%	0.2%	7.13×	58.32

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cagliari (2nd half DNB)	71.5%	71.0%	53.7%	1.32×	1.41
Venezia (2nd half DNB)	28.5%	29.0%	46.3%	0.63×	3.44

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Venezia leading at HT (DNB)	57.6%	57.3%	48.9%	1.17×	1.74
Cagliari leading at HT (DNB)	42.4%	42.7%	51.1%	0.84×	2.34

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cagliari or Venezia (12)	77.5%	75.6%	73.6%	1.03×	1.32
Cagliari or draw (1X)	70.9%	72.1%	66.3%	1.09×	1.39
Venezia or draw (X2)	51.6%	52.6%	60.0%	0.88×	1.90

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Venezia or draw at HT	75.0%	79.0%	71.6%	1.10×	1.27
Cagliari or draw at HT	66.1%	66.6%	72.8%	0.91×	1.50
Cagliari or Venezia at HT	58.8%	57.2%	55.4%	1.03×	1.75

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cagliari or draw (1UP)	70.9%	79.5%	71.6%	1.11×	1.26
Venezia or draw (1UP)	51.6%	58.6%	65.5%	0.89×	1.71

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cagliari or draw in 2nd half	79.7%	75.9%	69.8%	1.09×	1.32
Cagliari or Venezia in 2nd half	71.4%	74.2%	65.0%	1.14×	1.35
Venezia or draw in 2nd half	49.0%	48.7%	65.0%	0.75×	2.05

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	58.0%	58.5%	63.5%	0.92×	1.71
Neither half drawn	42.0%	41.5%	36.5%	1.14×	2.41

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cagliari (DNB)	62.5%	62.7%	54.3%	1.15×	1.60
Venezia (DNB)	37.5%	37.3%	45.7%	0.82×	2.68

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cagliari to score first	54.9%	53.5%	48.6%	1.10×	1.87
Venezia to score first	41.3%	41.6%	43.6%	0.95×	2.40
No goal scored	3.8%	4.3%	7.9%	0.54×	23.32

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	63.8%	56.7%	49.2%	1.15×	1.77
Not both teams to score	36.2%	43.3%	50.8%	0.85×	2.31

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	53.8%	47.3%	37.4%	1.26×	2.12
Not both score & under 2.5	26.6%	33.3%	40.1%	0.83×	3.00
Both score & under 2.5	10.0%	8.3%	11.9%	0.70×	12.05
Not both score & over 2.5	9.6%	8.3%	10.8%	0.77×	12.05

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	77.2%	79.6%	86.5%	0.92×	1.26
Both teams to score 2+	22.8%	20.4%	13.5%	1.51×	4.91

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	62.5%	65.7%	74.9%	0.88×	1.52
Both teams to score in 2nd half	37.5%	34.3%	25.1%	1.37×	2.92

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	49.4%	53.1%	62.7%	0.85×	1.88
Both score 2nd half only	29.7%	27.5%	20.3%	1.35×	3.64
Both score 1st half only	13.0%	10.7%	12.3%	0.87×	9.35
Both score in both halves	7.8%	6.8%	4.9%	1.38×	14.67

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	79.1%	81.3%	82.9%	0.98×	1.23
Both teams to score by HT	20.9%	18.7%	17.1%	1.10×	5.34

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	61.6%	59.7%	52.8%	1.13×	1.68
A half without a goal	38.4%	40.3%	47.2%	0.85×	2.48

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	42.5%	42.1%	48.4%	0.87×	2.37
4-6 goals	36.4%	35.1%	23.8%	1.48×	2.85
0-1 goals	16.2%	20.2%	27.0%	0.75×	4.94
7+ goals	4.9%	1.9%	1.0%	1.93×	54.01

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Venezia to score exactly 1	34.5%	33.8%	34.7%	0.97×	2.95
Venezia to score exactly 0	24.5%	22.3%	30.4%	0.73×	4.48
Venezia to score exactly 2	24.2%	22.3%	23.2%	0.96×	4.48
Venezia to score 3+	16.8%	19.6%	11.9%	1.64×	5.11

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cagliari to score exactly 1	28.9%	26.6%	32.1%	0.83×	3.77
Cagliari to score 3+	28.7%	26.6%	15.0%	1.77×	3.77
Cagliari to score exactly 2	27.0%	26.5%	24.8%	1.07×	3.77
Cagliari to score exactly 0	15.5%	18.8%	28.4%	0.66×	5.33

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	41.2%	42.8%	44.6%	0.96×	2.33
Venezia leading at HT	33.9%	33.4%	27.2%	1.23×	3.00
Cagliari leading at HT	25.0%	21.0%	28.4%	0.74×	4.76

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cagliari -1: 2	51.6%	52.1%	—	—	1.92
Cagliari -1: 1	26.9%	26.5%	—	—	3.77
Cagliari -1: X	21.5%	23.5%	—	—	4.26

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Venezia (0:1)	51.6%	51.3%	60.0%	0.85×	1.95
Cagliari (0:1)	26.9%	27.0%	17.5%	1.54×	3.70
Draw (0:1)	21.5%	24.2%	22.6%	1.07×	4.13

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Venezia (0:2)	73.1%	75.7%	82.5%	0.92×	1.32
Draw (0:2)	14.7%	11.0%	10.0%	1.10×	9.09
Cagliari (0:2)	12.3%	11.0%	7.7%	1.43×	9.10

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Venezia (0:3)	87.7%	90.6%	92.3%	0.98×	1.10
Draw (0:3)	7.6%	5.8%	4.7%	1.24×	17.21
Cagliari (0:3)	4.6%	2.4%	3.1%	0.76×	41.99

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Venezia (0:4)	95.4%	98.1%	96.9%	1.01×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	3.2%	1.2%	2.3%	0.54×	81.75
Cagliari (0:4)	1.5%	1.2%	1.0%	1.27×	81.94

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cagliari (1:0)	70.9%	72.4%	66.3%	1.09×	1.38
Draw (1:0)	16.2%	17.1%	19.4%	0.88×	5.85
Venezia (1:0)	12.9%	12.7%	14.4%	0.88×	7.87

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cagliari (2:0)	87.1%	88.5%	85.6%	1.03×	1.13
Draw (2:0)	8.3%	6.4%	8.7%	0.74×	15.68
Venezia (2:0)	4.6%	2.3%	5.9%	0.39×	43.54

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	56.0%	58.0%	46.2%	1.26×	1.73
1st half highest scoring	22.7%	24.3%	27.0%	0.90×	4.11
Halves equal	21.3%	24.3%	26.9%	0.90×	4.11

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cagliari to concede	75.5%	76.0%	69.6%	1.09×	1.32
Cagliari clean sheet	24.5%	24.0%	30.4%	0.79×	4.17

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cagliari clean sheet in 1st half	50.3%	55.4%	58.8%	0.94×	1.81
Cagliari to concede in 1st half	49.7%	44.6%	41.2%	1.08×	2.24

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cagliari to concede in 2nd half	51.2%	52.7%	50.0%	1.05×	1.90
Cagliari clean sheet in 2nd half	48.8%	47.3%	50.0%	0.95×	2.11

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cagliari over 2.5 corners	79.8%	76.5%	—	—	1.31
Cagliari under 6.5 corners	73.6%	71.9%	—	—	1.39
Cagliari over 3.5 corners	65.7%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
Cagliari under 5.5 corners	62.5%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
Cagliari over 4.5 corners	51.0%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
Cagliari under 4.5 corners	49.0%	47.4%	—	—	2.11
Cagliari over 5.5 corners	37.5%	37.7%	—	—	2.65
Cagliari under 3.5 corners	34.3%	33.3%	—	—	3.01
Cagliari over 6.5 corners	26.4%	28.1%	—	—	3.55
Cagliari under 2.5 corners	20.2%	23.5%	—	—	4.26

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cagliari under 3.5 goals	88.1%	87.3%	95.3%	0.92×	1.15
Cagliari over 0.5 goals	84.5%	82.2%	71.6%	1.15×	1.22
Cagliari under 2.5 goals	71.3%	74.2%	85.0%	0.87×	1.35
Cagliari over 1.5 goals	55.6%	58.6%	39.7%	1.48×	1.71
Cagliari under 1.5 goals	44.4%	41.4%	60.3%	0.69×	2.41
Cagliari over 2.5 goals	28.7%	25.8%	15.0%	1.72×	3.88
Cagliari under 0.5 goals	15.5%	17.8%	28.4%	0.63×	5.62
Cagliari over 3.5 goals	11.9%	12.7%	4.7%	2.72×	7.85

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cagliari under 1.5 in 1st half	89.6%	90.3%	89.3%	1.01×	1.11
Cagliari under 0.5 in 1st half	58.0%	56.7%	57.9%	0.98×	1.76
Cagliari over 0.5 in 1st half	42.0%	43.3%	42.1%	1.03×	2.31
Cagliari over 1.5 in 1st half	10.4%	9.7%	10.7%	0.91×	10.31

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cagliari scores more in 2nd half	55.8%	56.7%	36.2%	1.57×	1.77
Cagliari scores equally in both	28.8%	27.8%	41.7%	0.67×	3.59
Cagliari scores more in 1st half	15.3%	14.4%	22.2%	0.65×	6.93

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Venezia (home no bet)	56.3%	56.4%	56.0%	1.01×	1.77
Draw (home no bet)	43.7%	43.6%	44.0%	0.99×	2.29

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cagliari even goals	51.2%	50.7%	56.3%	0.90×	1.97
Cagliari odd goals	48.8%	49.3%	43.8%	1.13×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	29.2%	28.0%	33.8%	0.83×	3.57
HT 0-1	20.0%	24.4%	18.1%	1.34×	4.10
HT 1-0	15.9%	18.6%	18.4%	1.01×	5.39
HT 1-1	10.9%	11.0%	10.3%	1.06×	9.09
HT 0-2	6.9%	6.9%	5.4%	1.28×	14.49
Any other HT score	5.0%	2.4%	3.4%	0.71×	41.95
HT 2-0	4.3%	2.4%	5.8%	0.41×	42.00
HT 1-2	3.7%	2.4%	2.6%	0.90×	42.03
HT 2-1	3.0%	2.4%	2.4%	0.99×	42.08
HT 2-2	1.0%	2.4%	0.7%	3.29×	42.21

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT / Cagliari at FT	21.0%	21.8%	15.9%	1.37×	4.60
Cagliari at HT / Cagliari at FT	20.8%	21.7%	22.0%	0.99×	4.60
Venezia at HT / Venezia at FT	19.6%	16.7%	19.1%	0.88×	5.97
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	11.8%	12.6%	16.1%	0.78×	7.91
Draw at HT / Venezia at FT	8.4%	6.0%	12.9%	0.47×	16.59
Venezia at HT / Draw at FT	7.7%	6.0%	5.9%	1.02×	16.61
Venezia at HT / Cagliari at FT	6.6%	6.0%	2.4%	2.50×	16.64
Cagliari at HT / Draw at FT	3.0%	3.5%	4.7%	0.74×	28.65
Cagliari at HT / Venezia at FT	1.2%	3.5%	1.9%	1.81×	28.72

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cagliari to score last	54.9%	52.3%	48.2%	1.08×	1.91
Venezia to score last	41.3%	40.0%	44.0%	0.91×	2.50
No goal scored	3.8%	4.3%	7.9%	0.54×	23.32

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	96.2%	95.6%	92.1%	1.04×	1.05
Cagliari to lead by 1 at any time	65.5%	69.3%	55.3%	1.25×	1.44
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	54.5%	50.9%	43.6%	1.17×	1.96
Venezia to lead by 1 at any time	49.4%	44.6%	50.5%	0.88×	2.24
Cagliari to lead by 2 at any time	35.1%	34.6%	23.9%	1.45×	2.89
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	22.1%	19.6%	15.1%	1.30×	5.09
Venezia to lead by 2 at any time	19.9%	15.0%	20.2%	0.74×	6.67
Cagliari to lead by 3 at any time	15.5%	14.9%	8.8%	1.70×	6.71
Venezia to lead by 3 at any time	6.6%	6.7%	6.5%	1.03×	14.94

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cagliari most corners	51.4%	51.7%	—	—	1.94
Venezia most corners	37.8%	39.3%	—	—	2.54
Corners level	10.8%	10.4%	—	—	9.58

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	84.9%	83.4%	89.2%	0.94×	1.20
2-6 goals	78.9%	78.7%	72.1%	1.09×	1.27
1-4 goals	73.0%	72.4%	80.8%	0.90×	1.38
2-5 goals	72.5%	72.4%	70.1%	1.03×	1.38
2-4 goals	60.6%	63.3%	61.7%	1.03×	1.58
3-6 goals	58.6%	59.1%	47.2%	1.25×	1.69
1-3 goals	54.9%	53.2%	67.5%	0.79×	1.88
3-5 goals	52.1%	53.2%	45.2%	1.18×	1.88
2-3 goals	42.5%	43.6%	48.4%	0.90×	2.30
3-4 goals	40.3%	43.6%	36.8%	1.18×	2.30
4-6 goals	36.4%	39.2%	23.8%	1.65×	2.55
1-2 goals	32.8%	35.2%	44.1%	0.80×	2.84
4-5 goals	30.0%	30.2%	21.8%	1.39×	3.31
5-6 goals	18.3%	18.8%	10.6%	1.78×	5.31
7+ goals	4.9%	2.6%	1.0%	2.67×	39.00

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cagliari never behind	46.8%	56.6%	49.5%	1.14×	1.77
Venezia never behind	30.7%	36.1%	44.7%	0.81×	2.77

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	49.9%	50.9%	51.6%	0.99×	1.96
Even number of goals	50.1%	49.1%	48.4%	1.01×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	54.3%	51.7%	56.6%	0.91×	1.94
Odd goals in 1st half	45.7%	48.3%	43.4%	1.11×	2.07

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	50.9%	51.9%	50.6%	1.03×	1.93
Odd goals in 2nd half	49.1%	48.1%	49.4%	0.97×	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	96.2%	95.4%	92.1%	1.04×	1.05
Under 5.5 goals	88.7%	87.6%	97.0%	0.90×	1.14
Over 1.5 goals	83.8%	82.3%	73.0%	1.13×	1.22
Under 4.5 goals	76.8%	77.3%	88.6%	0.87×	1.29
Over 2.5 goals	63.4%	61.7%	48.1%	1.28×	1.62
Under 3.5 goals	58.7%	58.6%	75.4%	0.78×	1.71
Over 3.5 goals	41.3%	41.4%	24.6%	1.68×	2.42
Under 2.5 goals	36.6%	38.3%	51.9%	0.74×	2.61
Over 4.5 goals	23.2%	22.7%	11.4%	1.99×	4.41
Under 1.5 goals	16.2%	17.7%	27.0%	0.65×	5.65
Over 5.5 goals	11.3%	12.4%	3.0%	4.13×	8.07
Under 0.5 goals	3.8%	4.6%	7.9%	0.58×	21.86

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	94.8%	92.4%	99.0%	0.93×	1.08
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	87.2%	86.7%	96.7%	0.90×	1.15
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	79.6%	75.9%	64.0%	1.19×	1.32
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	71.7%	72.4%	86.8%	0.83×	1.38
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	53.0%	51.9%	32.2%	1.61×	1.93
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	47.0%	48.1%	67.8%	0.71×	2.08
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	28.3%	27.6%	13.2%	2.10×	3.62
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	20.4%	24.1%	36.0%	0.67×	4.15
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	12.8%	13.3%	3.3%	4.05×	7.53
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	5.2%	7.6%	1.0%	7.73×	13.17

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	87.3%	89.2%	91.2%	0.98×	1.12
Over 0.5 in 1st half	70.8%	71.8%	66.2%	1.08×	1.39
Under 1.5 in 1st half	65.1%	68.4%	70.1%	0.98×	1.46
Over 1.5 in 1st half	34.9%	31.6%	29.9%	1.06×	3.16
Under 0.5 in 1st half	29.2%	28.2%	33.8%	0.84×	3.54
Over 2.5 in 1st half	12.7%	10.8%	8.8%	1.23×	9.24

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	87.0%	85.5%	78.6%	1.09×	1.17
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	66.7%	68.6%	82.5%	0.83×	1.46
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	60.4%	61.5%	43.0%	1.43×	1.63
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	39.6%	38.5%	57.0%	0.68×	2.59
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	33.3%	31.4%	17.5%	1.79×	3.19
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	13.0%	14.5%	21.4%	0.68×	6.89

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Venezia not to score in both halves	74.6%	74.0%	78.4%	0.94×	1.35
Cagliari not to score in both halves	69.2%	70.0%	75.8%	0.92×	1.43
Cagliari to score in both halves	30.8%	30.0%	24.2%	1.24×	3.33
Venezia to score in both halves	25.4%	26.0%	21.6%	1.20×	3.85

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	63.8%	60.3%	49.2%	1.23×	1.66
Only Cagliari scores	20.7%	22.2%	22.6%	0.98×	4.50
Only Venezia scores	11.7%	11.0%	20.6%	0.54×	9.06
Neither team scores	3.8%	4.6%	7.9%	0.58×	21.68

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 3 goals	22.2%	22.6%	23.6%	0.96×	4.43
Exactly 2 goals	20.3%	22.6%	25.0%	0.90×	4.43
Exactly 4 goals	18.1%	17.5%	13.3%	1.31×	5.73
Exactly 1 goals	12.4%	12.1%	19.2%	0.63×	8.25
Exactly 5 goals	11.8%	12.1%	8.5%	1.42×	8.25
6 or more goals	11.3%	12.1%	3.0%	4.04×	8.25
Exactly 0 goals	3.8%	4.5%	7.9%	0.56×	22.38

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 1st half	35.9%	37.4%	36.4%	1.03×	2.68
No goals in 1st half	29.2%	28.3%	33.8%	0.84×	3.53
2 goals in 1st half	22.1%	21.5%	21.3%	1.01×	4.65
3+ goals in 1st half	12.7%	10.7%	8.8%	1.22×	9.31

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	60.4%	58.4%	43.0%	1.36×	1.71
1 goal in 2nd half	26.6%	29.3%	35.7%	0.82×	3.42
No goals in 2nd half	13.0%	14.3%	21.4%	0.67×	6.99

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Venezia not to win both halves	93.1%	94.1%	91.1%	1.03×	1.06
Cagliari not to win both halves	87.3%	87.9%	89.9%	0.98×	1.14
Cagliari to win both halves	12.7%	12.1%	10.1%	1.20×	8.24
Venezia to win both halves	6.9%	5.9%	8.9%	0.66×	17.02

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cagliari to win either half	63.3%	65.1%	53.2%	1.22×	1.54
Venezia to win neither half	52.7%	54.3%	51.6%	1.05×	1.84
Venezia to win either half	47.3%	45.7%	48.4%	0.94×	2.19
Cagliari to win neither half	36.7%	34.9%	46.8%	0.75×	2.87

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Venezia not to win to nil	88.3%	88.1%	79.4%	1.11×	1.14
Cagliari not to win to nil	79.3%	78.1%	77.4%	1.01×	1.28
Cagliari to win to nil	20.7%	21.9%	22.6%	0.97×	4.58
Venezia to win to nil	11.7%	11.9%	20.6%	0.58×	8.42

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	22.5%	24.1%	26.4%	0.91×	4.15
Cagliari by 1	21.5%	24.1%	22.6%	1.07×	4.15
Venezia by 1	16.2%	17.0%	19.4%	0.88×	5.87
Cagliari by 2	14.7%	11.8%	10.0%	1.18×	8.50
Cagliari by 3+	12.3%	11.8%	7.7%	1.53×	8.51
Venezia by 2	8.3%	7.2%	8.7%	0.83×	13.90
Venezia by 3+	4.6%	2.7%	5.9%	0.46×	36.76