Cardiff City v Southampton — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 12 December 2026 · ENG-Championship · 2627

Championship results-only Prediction generated 18 Sep 2026, 10:37 UTC

Cardiff City

15:00 UTC

Southampton

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 25 Oct, 11:02 · 1,156h before kick-off

Cardiff City win

23.2%

model 22.2%

Draw

23.3%

model 24.6%

Southampton win

53.6%

model 53.2%

232354

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (466 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 11.4%
1-2 9.8%
0-2 8.2%
0-1 7.3%
1-3 6.3%

Goals

Over 2.5	60.3%	Under 2.5	39.7%
BTTS yes	60.8%	BTTS no	39.2%
Cardiff City 1+	69.7%	Cardiff City 2+	33.6%
Southampton 1+	85.4%	Southampton 2+	57.4%

Expected goals 1.20 – 1.93. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

43/100

Data quality

65/100

Model agreement

94%

★ Best pick

Southampton over 1.5 goals

Away goals O/U · usually 30%

58.2% fair odds 1.72

strong signal · 830 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Southampton not to win both halves

Win both halves

83.3% fair odds 1.20

moderate signal · 588 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Southampton carry the stronger rating, 1628 Elo against 1354.
Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Southampton have an estimated 53.6% win probability, against 23.3% for the draw and 23.2% for Cardiff City. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.20 for Cardiff City and 1.93 for Southampton.

Why Cardiff City

Nothing in the data singles out Cardiff City.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 23.3%. Draws run at 28% in this competition.

Why Southampton can win

Southampton carry the stronger rating, 1628 Elo against 1354. Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.

Key players

Southampton's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Mateus Fernandes (0.20), Paul Onuachu (0.20), Cameron Archer (0.17).

Availability

No lineup on record for Cardiff City, so availability is unknown. 2 of Southampton's top three contributors did not start their last match.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Cardiff City: 65% possession, 19.4 shots a match, 12.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Southampton: 57% possession, 16.8 shots a match, 14.0 faced, 0.24 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-25 14:59 · team_stats 2026-10-25 06:07 · availability 2026-10-25 15:02 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Southampton are the model's most likely outcome at 53.6%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 11.4%. Confidence 43/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Southampton have scored 6 from 7.4 expected and conceded 18 from 18.4 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.

LDLLDLLDLL last 10 scored 6 from 7.4 xG conceded 18 from 18.4 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	222553	1.20–1.93	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	182359	1.09–2.10	1-1 11%	62%	59%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Southampton to win	59.3%	54.0%	29.1%	1.86×	1.85
Draw	22.8%	24.5%	27.6%	0.89×	4.09
Cardiff City to win	17.9%	19.4%	43.4%	0.45×	5.16

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Southampton & both teams score	31.0%	29.6%	13.9%	2.12×	3.38
Southampton & not both score	28.4%	25.2%	15.2%	1.65×	3.97
Draw & both teams score	17.6%	18.0%	20.4%	0.88×	5.57
Cardiff City & both teams score	10.8%	13.3%	20.2%	0.66×	7.54
Cardiff City & not both score	7.0%	8.3%	23.3%	0.36×	12.01
Draw & not both score	5.3%	8.3%	7.3%	1.14×	12.02

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Southampton & over 1.5	51.8%	48.9%	21.4%	2.28×	2.05
Southampton & over 2.5	42.7%	40.2%	16.2%	2.48×	2.49
Southampton & under 3.5	32.9%	30.8%	22.3%	1.38×	3.25
Southampton & over 3.5	26.4%	26.1%	6.8%	3.83×	3.84
Draw & over 1.5	17.6%	18.0%	20.4%	0.88×	5.56
Southampton & under 2.5	16.6%	18.0%	12.9%	1.39×	5.56
Draw & under 2.5	15.9%	18.0%	21.8%	0.83×	5.56
Draw & under 3.5	15.9%	18.0%	21.8%	0.83×	5.56
Cardiff City & over 1.5	14.5%	12.8%	32.5%	0.40×	7.79
Cardiff City & over 2.5	12.0%	12.8%	26.4%	0.49×	7.79
Cardiff City & under 3.5	11.9%	12.8%	32.4%	0.40×	7.79
Southampton & under 1.5	7.5%	7.9%	7.7%	1.02×	12.63
Cardiff City & over 3.5	6.0%	7.9%	11.1%	0.71×	12.63
Draw & over 2.5	7.0%	7.9%	5.9%	1.33×	12.63
Draw & over 3.5	7.0%	7.9%	5.9%	1.33×	12.63
Cardiff City & under 2.5	5.8%	7.9%	17.1%	0.46×	12.63
Draw & under 1.5	5.3%	7.9%	7.3%	1.08×	12.63
Cardiff City & under 1.5	3.4%	4.8%	11.0%	0.43×	20.82

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Southampton (1UP)	73.3%	75.3%	—	—	1.33
Cardiff City (1UP)	37.8%	34.1%	—	—	2.93

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Southampton (2UP)	59.3%	55.0%	—	—	1.82
Cardiff City (2UP)	17.9%	17.2%	—	—	5.83

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Southampton to win 2nd half	51.5%	51.9%	—	—	1.93
2nd half drawn	30.5%	34.1%	—	—	2.93
Cardiff City to win 2nd half	18.0%	18.0%	—	—	5.57

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Southampton over 0.5 in 2nd half	71.6%	75.5%	—	—	1.33
Southampton under 1.5 in 2nd half	64.2%	60.4%	—	—	1.66
Southampton over 1.5 in 2nd half	35.8%	39.6%	—	—	2.52
Southampton under 0.5 in 2nd half	28.4%	24.5%	—	—	4.08

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cardiff City under 1.5 in 2nd half	87.1%	88.5%	—	—	1.13
Cardiff City under 0.5 in 2nd half	53.7%	55.2%	—	—	1.81
Cardiff City over 0.5 in 2nd half	46.3%	44.8%	—	—	2.23
Cardiff City over 1.5 in 2nd half	12.9%	11.5%	—	—	8.72

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Southampton (+2.5)	98.0%	96.3%	91.9%	1.05×	1.04
Southampton (+1.5)	93.0%	92.1%	80.7%	1.14×	1.09
Southampton (+0.5)	82.1%	82.6%	56.6%	1.46×	1.21
Southampton (-0.5)	59.3%	57.0%	29.1%	1.96×	1.75
Cardiff City (+0.5)	40.7%	43.0%	70.9%	0.61×	2.33
Cardiff City (-0.5)	17.9%	17.5%	43.4%	0.40×	5.73
Cardiff City (-1.5)	7.0%	7.9%	19.3%	0.41×	12.70
Cardiff City (-2.5)	2.0%	3.7%	8.1%	0.46×	27.19

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Southampton to concede	66.4%	72.3%	77.6%	0.93×	1.38
Southampton clean sheet	33.6%	27.7%	22.4%	1.23×	3.61

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Southampton clean sheet in 1st half	62.6%	64.4%	—	—	1.55
Southampton to concede in 1st half	37.4%	35.6%	—	—	2.81

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Southampton clean sheet in 2nd half	53.7%	54.9%	—	—	1.82
Southampton to concede in 2nd half	46.3%	45.1%	—	—	2.22

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Southampton under 6.5 corners	85.3%	85.2%	—	—	1.17
Southampton under 5.5 corners	77.1%	76.0%	—	—	1.32
Southampton over 2.5 corners	65.7%	67.6%	—	—	1.48
Southampton under 4.5 corners	65.6%	67.6%	—	—	1.48
Southampton under 3.5 corners	51.0%	53.1%	—	—	1.89
Southampton over 3.5 corners	49.0%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Southampton under 2.5 corners	34.3%	32.4%	—	—	3.09
Southampton over 4.5 corners	34.4%	32.4%	—	—	3.09
Southampton over 5.5 corners	22.9%	24.0%	—	—	4.18
Southampton over 6.5 corners	14.7%	14.8%	—	—	6.77

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Southampton over 0.5 goals	87.7%	87.8%	69.5%	1.26×	1.14
Southampton under 3.5 goals	84.0%	81.5%	97.8%	0.83×	1.23
Southampton under 2.5 goals	65.1%	68.0%	90.6%	0.75×	1.47
Southampton over 1.5 goals	61.9%	63.2%	30.0%	2.11×	1.58
Southampton under 1.5 goals	38.1%	36.8%	70.0%	0.53×	2.72
Southampton over 2.5 goals	34.9%	32.0%	9.4%	3.39×	3.12
Southampton over 3.5 goals	16.0%	18.5%	2.2%	8.38×	5.40
Southampton under 0.5 goals	12.3%	12.2%	30.5%	0.40×	8.20

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Southampton under 1.5 in 1st half	79.5%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Southampton over 0.5 in 1st half	56.8%	62.0%	—	—	1.61
Southampton under 0.5 in 1st half	43.2%	38.0%	—	—	2.63
Southampton over 1.5 in 1st half	20.5%	23.4%	—	—	4.27

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Southampton scores more in 2nd half	46.1%	48.1%	—	—	2.08
Southampton scores equally in both	29.1%	26.7%	—	—	3.75
Southampton scores more in 1st half	24.8%	21.9%	—	—	4.57

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw (away no bet)	56.1%	57.4%	38.9%	1.48×	1.74
Cardiff City (away no bet)	43.9%	42.6%	61.1%	0.70×	2.35

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Southampton even goals	50.8%	52.6%	52.4%	1.00×	1.90
Southampton odd goals	49.2%	47.4%	47.6%	1.00×	2.11

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	79.0%	81.3%	—	—	1.23
Both halves over 1.5 goals	21.0%	18.7%	—	—	5.35

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	73.1%	67.7%	—	—	1.48
Both halves under 1.5 goals	26.9%	32.3%	—	—	3.10

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	65.7%	62.4%	—	—	1.60
Southampton to score 2+ in a row	53.5%	51.0%	—	—	1.96
Either team to score 3+ in a row	29.1%	25.1%	—	—	3.99
Southampton to score 3+ in a row	25.0%	19.7%	—	—	5.09
Cardiff City to score 2+ in a row	20.0%	16.3%	—	—	6.15
Cardiff City to score 3+ in a row	4.5%	2.6%	—	—	38.09

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cardiff City corners (+3.5)	93.3%	89.6%	—	—	1.12
Cardiff City corners (+2.5)	89.6%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Cardiff City corners (+1.5)	84.6%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Cardiff City corners (-1.5)	61.7%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Southampton corners (+3.5)	56.3%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Cardiff City corners (-2.5)	52.6%	52.4%	—	—	1.91
Southampton corners (+2.5)	47.4%	47.6%	—	—	2.10
Cardiff City corners (-3.5)	43.7%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Southampton corners (+1.5)	38.3%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Southampton corners (-1.5)	15.4%	20.2%	—	—	4.95
Southampton corners (-2.5)	10.4%	15.5%	—	—	6.45
Southampton corners (-3.5)	6.7%	10.4%	—	—	9.60

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
12+ corners	39.8%	34.0%	—	—	2.94
0-8 corners	34.7%	33.2%	—	—	3.01
9-11 corners	25.6%	31.2%	—	—	3.21

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 7.5 corners	73.8%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Under 12.5 corners	67.6%	67.8%	—	—	1.47
Over 8.5 corners	65.4%	67.8%	—	—	1.47
Under 11.5 corners	60.2%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Over 9.5 corners	56.6%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Under 10.5 corners	52.1%	53.1%	—	—	1.88
Over 10.5 corners	47.9%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Under 9.5 corners	43.4%	42.1%	—	—	2.38
Over 11.5 corners	39.8%	36.8%	—	—	2.72
Under 8.5 corners	34.7%	32.2%	—	—	3.11
Over 12.5 corners	32.4%	32.2%	—	—	3.11
Under 7.5 corners	26.2%	27.5%	—	—	3.64

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.1%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.9%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	10.6%	11.5%	14.5%	0.79×	8.72
0-2	9.1%	7.4%	5.3%	1.41×	13.51
1-2	9.9%	7.4%	8.0%	0.93×	13.51
0-1	7.5%	7.4%	7.7%	0.96×	13.51
1-3	6.9%	7.4%	3.1%	2.42×	13.51
Any other score	6.6%	7.4%	3.0%	2.49×	13.51
0-0	5.3%	7.4%	7.3%	1.01×	13.51
0-3	6.3%	7.4%	1.6%	4.59×	13.51
2-1	5.1%	7.4%	11.5%	0.65×	13.51
2-2	5.4%	7.4%	5.2%	1.43×	13.51
0-4	3.3%	1.7%	0.4%	4.04×	58.30
1-0	3.4%	1.7%	11.0%	0.16×	58.30
1-4	3.6%	1.7%	0.6%	2.88×	58.30
2-0	2.5%	1.7%	6.1%	0.28×	58.31
2-3	3.8%	1.7%	1.7%	1.01×	58.30
2-4	2.0%	1.7%	0.3%	6.73×	58.31
3-0	0.9%	1.7%	4.0%	0.43×	58.31
3-1	1.9%	1.7%	4.3%	0.40×	58.31
3-2	2.0%	1.7%	1.8%	0.96×	58.31
3-3	1.4%	1.7%	0.9%	2.02×	58.31
3-4	0.7%	1.7%	0.3%	6.73×	58.32
4-0	0.2%	1.7%	1.7%	1.01×	58.32
4-1	0.5%	1.7%	0.9%	2.02×	58.32
4-2	0.5%	1.7%	0.8%	2.24×	58.32
4-3	0.4%	1.7%	0.2%	10.09×	58.32
4-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.1%	20.18×	58.32

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Southampton (2nd half DNB)	74.1%	71.4%	—	—	1.40
Cardiff City (2nd half DNB)	25.9%	28.6%	—	—	3.50

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Southampton leading at HT (DNB)	68.6%	74.3%	—	—	1.35
Cardiff City leading at HT (DNB)	31.4%	25.7%	—	—	3.90

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Southampton or draw (X2)	82.1%	80.6%	56.6%	1.42×	1.24
Cardiff City or Southampton (12)	77.2%	75.5%	72.4%	1.04×	1.32
Cardiff City or draw (1X)	40.7%	46.0%	70.9%	0.65×	2.17

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Southampton or draw at HT	80.9%	83.9%	—	—	1.19
Cardiff City or Southampton at HT	60.8%	60.9%	—	—	1.64
Cardiff City or draw at HT	58.3%	57.7%	—	—	1.73

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Southampton or draw (1UP)	82.1%	88.6%	—	—	1.13
Cardiff City or draw (1UP)	40.7%	52.4%	—	—	1.91

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Southampton or draw in 2nd half	82.0%	82.0%	—	—	1.22
Cardiff City or Southampton in 2nd half	69.5%	65.9%	—	—	1.52
Cardiff City or draw in 2nd half	48.5%	48.1%	—	—	2.08

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	56.5%	58.7%	—	—	1.70
Neither half drawn	43.5%	41.3%	—	—	2.42

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Southampton (DNB)	76.9%	74.8%	40.1%	1.86×	1.34
Cardiff City (DNB)	23.1%	25.2%	59.9%	0.42×	3.96

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Southampton to score first	62.3%	64.0%	—	—	1.56
Cardiff City to score first	32.4%	27.7%	—	—	3.61
No goal scored	5.3%	7.4%	—	—	13.57

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	59.4%	55.1%	54.4%	1.01×	1.82
Not both teams to score	40.7%	45.0%	45.6%	0.99×	2.23

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	48.8%	44.4%	39.9%	1.11×	2.25
Not both score & under 2.5	27.7%	33.3%	37.1%	0.90×	3.00
Not both score & over 2.5	12.9%	12.4%	8.6%	1.44×	8.09
Both score & under 2.5	10.6%	12.4%	14.5%	0.85×	8.09

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	81.6%	82.6%	89.0%	0.93×	1.21
Both teams to score 2+	18.4%	17.4%	11.0%	1.59×	5.74

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	66.5%	67.1%	—	—	1.49
Both teams to score in 2nd half	33.5%	32.9%	—	—	3.04

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	52.1%	54.4%	—	—	1.84
Both score 2nd half only	26.5%	27.2%	—	—	3.68
Both score 1st half only	14.4%	10.8%	—	—	9.25
Both score in both halves	7.0%	6.8%	—	—	14.68

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	78.6%	81.2%	—	—	1.23
Both teams to score by HT	21.4%	18.8%	—	—	5.32

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	62.3%	59.6%	—	—	1.68
A half without a goal	37.7%	40.4%	—	—	2.48

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	44.4%	42.2%	50.5%	0.84×	2.37
4-6 goals	35.1%	35.1%	22.4%	1.56×	2.85
0-1 goals	16.2%	20.2%	25.9%	0.78×	4.95
7+ goals	4.3%	1.8%	1.4%	1.36×	54.09

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Southampton to score 3+	34.9%	33.8%	9.4%	3.59×	2.96
Southampton to score exactly 2	27.0%	27.4%	20.6%	1.33×	3.65
Southampton to score exactly 1	25.8%	27.4%	39.6%	0.69×	3.65
Southampton to score exactly 0	12.3%	12.9%	30.5%	0.42×	7.76

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cardiff City to score exactly 1	36.6%	35.6%	37.0%	0.96×	2.81
Cardiff City to score exactly 0	33.6%	32.6%	22.4%	1.45×	3.07
Cardiff City to score exactly 2	20.0%	18.8%	24.6%	0.76×	5.33
Cardiff City to score 3+	9.8%	10.4%	16.1%	0.64×	9.66

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Southampton leading at HT	41.7%	42.3%	—	—	2.36
Draw at HT	39.2%	39.1%	—	—	2.56
Cardiff City leading at HT	19.1%	16.1%	—	—	6.20

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Southampton -1: 1	40.7%	42.8%	—	—	2.34
Southampton -1: 2	37.3%	37.4%	—	—	2.68
Southampton -1: X	22.0%	23.5%	—	—	4.26

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Southampton (0:1)	82.1%	77.9%	56.6%	1.38×	1.28
Draw (0:1)	10.9%	13.7%	24.2%	0.57×	7.31
Cardiff City (0:1)	7.0%	9.2%	19.3%	0.48×	10.84

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Southampton (0:2)	93.0%	90.8%	80.7%	1.12×	1.10
Draw (0:2)	5.0%	3.8%	11.3%	0.33×	26.59
Cardiff City (0:2)	2.0%	3.7%	8.1%	0.46×	26.76

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Southampton (0:3)	98.0%	96.6%	91.9%	1.05×	1.04
Draw (0:3)	1.5%	2.4%	4.8%	0.50×	42.16
Cardiff City (0:3)	0.5%	2.4%	3.4%	0.70×	42.21

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Southampton (0:4)	99.5%	98.1%	96.6%	1.02×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	0.4%	1.2%	2.4%	0.51×	82.13
Cardiff City (0:4)	0.1%	1.2%	1.1%	1.10×	82.16

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cardiff City (1:0)	40.7%	43.2%	70.9%	0.61×	2.32
Southampton (1:0)	37.3%	37.6%	11.7%	3.21×	2.66
Draw (1:0)	22.0%	21.7%	17.4%	1.25×	4.61

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cardiff City (2:0)	62.7%	66.4%	88.3%	0.75×	1.51
Southampton (2:0)	19.0%	15.9%	3.2%	4.91×	6.31
Draw (2:0)	18.3%	15.8%	8.6%	1.85×	6.32

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	49.9%	48.8%	—	—	2.05
1st half highest scoring	25.9%	26.2%	—	—	3.82
Halves equal	24.2%	24.4%	—	—	4.10

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cardiff City to concede	87.7%	85.6%	69.5%	1.23×	1.17
Cardiff City clean sheet	12.3%	14.4%	30.5%	0.47×	6.94

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cardiff City to concede in 1st half	56.8%	62.0%	—	—	1.61
Cardiff City clean sheet in 1st half	43.2%	38.0%	—	—	2.63

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cardiff City to concede in 2nd half	71.6%	72.3%	—	—	1.38
Cardiff City clean sheet in 2nd half	28.4%	27.7%	—	—	3.61

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cardiff City over 2.5 corners	88.9%	86.3%	—	—	1.16
Cardiff City over 3.5 corners	80.1%	81.0%	—	—	1.24
Cardiff City over 4.5 corners	69.9%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
Cardiff City over 5.5 corners	59.0%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Cardiff City under 6.5 corners	51.6%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
Cardiff City over 6.5 corners	48.4%	47.4%	—	—	2.11
Cardiff City under 5.5 corners	41.0%	42.5%	—	—	2.35
Cardiff City under 4.5 corners	30.2%	33.3%	—	—	3.01
Cardiff City under 3.5 corners	19.9%	19.0%	—	—	5.25
Cardiff City under 2.5 corners	11.1%	13.7%	—	—	7.27

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cardiff City under 3.5 goals	97.5%	96.4%	94.8%	1.02×	1.04
Cardiff City under 2.5 goals	90.2%	92.2%	83.9%	1.10×	1.08
Cardiff City under 1.5 goals	70.3%	74.2%	59.4%	1.25×	1.35
Cardiff City over 0.5 goals	66.4%	67.9%	77.6%	0.88×	1.47
Cardiff City under 0.5 goals	33.6%	32.1%	22.4%	1.43×	3.12
Cardiff City over 1.5 goals	29.7%	25.8%	40.6%	0.63×	3.88
Cardiff City over 2.5 goals	9.8%	7.8%	16.1%	0.48×	12.84
Cardiff City over 3.5 goals	2.5%	3.6%	5.2%	0.70×	27.56

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cardiff City under 1.5 in 1st half	91.9%	94.7%	—	—	1.06
Cardiff City under 0.5 in 1st half	62.6%	64.0%	—	—	1.56
Cardiff City over 0.5 in 1st half	37.4%	36.0%	—	—	2.78
Cardiff City over 1.5 in 1st half	8.1%	5.3%	—	—	18.95

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cardiff City scores equally in both	44.1%	42.1%	—	—	2.37
Cardiff City scores more in 2nd half	32.9%	33.2%	—	—	3.01
Cardiff City scores more in 1st half	22.9%	21.1%	—	—	4.74

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Southampton (home no bet)	72.2%	66.9%	51.3%	1.30×	1.50
Draw (home no bet)	27.8%	33.1%	48.7%	0.68×	3.02

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cardiff City even goals	55.7%	55.2%	50.5%	1.09×	1.81
Cardiff City odd goals	44.3%	44.8%	49.5%	0.90×	2.24

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	27.3%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
HT 0-1	22.5%	24.3%	—	—	4.11
HT 1-0	12.5%	11.0%	—	—	9.10
HT 1-1	10.8%	11.0%	—	—	9.12
HT 0-2	9.5%	6.9%	—	—	14.43
Any other HT score	6.5%	6.9%	—	—	14.48
HT 1-2	4.5%	2.4%	—	—	41.92
HT 2-0	3.0%	2.4%	—	—	42.01
HT 2-1	2.5%	2.4%	—	—	42.05
HT 2-2	1.0%	2.4%	—	—	42.14

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Southampton at HT / Southampton at FT	35.9%	40.8%	—	—	2.45
Draw at HT / Southampton at FT	19.4%	16.8%	—	—	5.95
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	13.3%	12.7%	—	—	7.91
Cardiff City at HT / Cardiff City at FT	10.0%	6.1%	—	—	16.36
Draw at HT / Cardiff City at FT	6.5%	6.1%	—	—	16.46
Cardiff City at HT / Draw at FT	5.1%	6.1%	—	—	16.50
Southampton at HT / Draw at FT	4.5%	3.5%	—	—	28.81
Cardiff City at HT / Southampton at FT	4.0%	3.5%	—	—	28.82
Southampton at HT / Cardiff City at FT	1.4%	3.5%	—	—	28.92

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Southampton to score last	62.5%	62.2%	—	—	1.61
Cardiff City to score last	32.2%	32.4%	—	—	3.09
No goal scored	5.3%	7.4%	—	—	13.57

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	94.7%	92.7%	—	—	1.08
Southampton to lead by 1 at any time	73.3%	74.1%	—	—	1.35
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	56.5%	54.9%	—	—	1.82
Southampton to lead by 2 at any time	44.7%	39.3%	—	—	2.54
Cardiff City to lead by 1 at any time	37.8%	34.7%	—	—	2.88
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	25.5%	25.3%	—	—	3.95
Southampton to lead by 3 at any time	22.3%	19.6%	—	—	5.11
Cardiff City to lead by 2 at any time	12.1%	10.5%	—	—	9.52
Cardiff City to lead by 3 at any time	3.1%	1.6%	—	—	61.90

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cardiff City most corners	70.4%	70.5%	—	—	1.42
Southampton most corners	21.8%	25.9%	—	—	3.87
Corners level	7.8%	8.3%	—	—	11.99

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	84.4%	83.4%	88.8%	0.94×	1.20
2-6 goals	79.5%	78.7%	72.8%	1.08×	1.27
2-5 goals	73.5%	72.4%	70.2%	1.03×	1.38
1-4 goals	73.1%	72.4%	83.3%	0.87×	1.38
2-4 goals	62.2%	63.3%	64.7%	0.98×	1.58
3-6 goals	57.4%	59.1%	47.2%	1.25×	1.69
1-3 goals	55.3%	59.1%	69.1%	0.86×	1.69
3-5 goals	51.4%	53.2%	44.5%	1.19×	1.88
2-3 goals	44.4%	43.6%	50.5%	0.86×	2.29
3-4 goals	40.0%	43.6%	39.1%	1.12×	2.29
4-6 goals	35.1%	39.2%	22.4%	1.75×	2.55
1-2 goals	33.0%	35.2%	44.4%	0.79×	2.84
4-5 goals	29.1%	30.2%	19.8%	1.53×	3.31
5-6 goals	17.3%	18.8%	8.2%	2.31×	5.31
7+ goals	4.3%	2.6%	1.4%	1.88×	39.06

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Southampton never behind	56.9%	62.4%	—	—	1.60
Cardiff City never behind	21.5%	24.9%	—	—	4.02

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	47.6%	50.9%	49.4%	1.03×	1.96
Even number of goals	52.4%	49.1%	50.6%	0.97×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	54.1%	51.8%	—	—	1.93
Odd goals in 1st half	45.9%	48.2%	—	—	2.07

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	51.9%	51.9%	—	—	1.93
Odd goals in 2nd half	48.1%	48.1%	—	—	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	94.7%	92.3%	92.7%	1.00×	1.08
Under 5.5 goals	89.7%	87.6%	96.0%	0.91×	1.14
Over 1.5 goals	83.8%	82.3%	74.1%	1.11×	1.22
Under 4.5 goals	78.3%	77.3%	90.6%	0.85×	1.29
Over 2.5 goals	61.7%	61.7%	48.4%	1.27×	1.62
Under 3.5 goals	60.6%	61.7%	76.3%	0.81×	1.62
Over 3.5 goals	39.4%	38.3%	23.7%	1.61×	2.61
Under 2.5 goals	38.3%	38.3%	51.6%	0.74×	2.61
Over 4.5 goals	21.7%	22.7%	9.4%	2.41×	4.41
Under 1.5 goals	16.2%	17.7%	25.9%	0.68×	5.66
Over 5.5 goals	10.3%	12.4%	4.0%	3.11×	8.06
Under 0.5 goals	5.3%	7.7%	7.3%	1.06×	12.96

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	95.4%	97.2%	98.6%	0.99×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	88.3%	86.7%	95.8%	0.91×	1.15
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	79.2%	75.9%	65.1%	1.17×	1.32
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	73.7%	72.4%	89.0%	0.81×	1.38
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	50.7%	51.9%	31.5%	1.65×	1.93
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	49.3%	48.1%	68.5%	0.70×	2.08
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	26.3%	27.6%	11.0%	2.51×	3.62
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	20.8%	24.1%	34.9%	0.69×	4.15
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	11.7%	13.3%	4.2%	3.14×	7.54
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	4.6%	2.8%	1.4%	2.02×	35.54

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	85.6%	89.0%	—	—	1.12
Over 0.5 in 1st half	72.7%	71.4%	—	—	1.40
Under 1.5 in 1st half	62.2%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Over 1.5 in 1st half	37.8%	36.8%	—	—	2.72
Under 0.5 in 1st half	27.3%	28.6%	—	—	3.50
Over 2.5 in 1st half	14.5%	11.0%	—	—	9.05

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	84.3%	83.0%	—	—	1.21
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	71.0%	77.5%	—	—	1.29
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	56.4%	55.1%	—	—	1.81
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	43.6%	44.9%	—	—	2.23
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	29.0%	22.5%	—	—	4.45
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	15.7%	17.0%	—	—	5.88

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cardiff City not to score in both halves	82.7%	84.2%	—	—	1.19
Southampton not to score in both halves	59.4%	58.4%	—	—	1.71
Southampton to score in both halves	40.6%	41.6%	—	—	2.40
Cardiff City to score in both halves	17.3%	15.8%	—	—	6.33

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	59.4%	58.7%	54.4%	1.08×	1.70
Only Southampton scores	28.4%	26.0%	15.2%	1.71×	3.84
Only Cardiff City scores	7.0%	7.1%	23.3%	0.31×	14.03
Neither team scores	5.3%	7.1%	7.3%	0.97×	14.05

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	22.1%	22.6%	25.7%	0.88×	4.43
Exactly 3 goals	22.3%	22.6%	24.8%	0.91×	4.43
Exactly 4 goals	17.8%	17.5%	14.4%	1.22×	5.73
Exactly 5 goals	11.3%	12.1%	5.5%	2.19×	8.25
Exactly 1 goals	10.9%	12.1%	18.7%	0.65×	8.25
6 or more goals	10.3%	12.1%	4.0%	3.03×	8.25
Exactly 0 goals	5.3%	7.6%	7.3%	1.04×	13.15

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 1st half	35.0%	35.7%	—	—	2.80
No goals in 1st half	27.3%	28.5%	—	—	3.51
2 goals in 1st half	23.3%	21.5%	—	—	4.66
3+ goals in 1st half	14.5%	10.9%	—	—	9.13

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	56.4%	54.0%	—	—	1.85
1 goal in 2nd half	27.9%	29.4%	—	—	3.40
No goals in 2nd half	15.7%	16.6%	—	—	6.02

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cardiff City not to win both halves	96.5%	97.2%	—	—	1.03
Southampton not to win both halves	78.3%	75.4%	—	—	1.33
Southampton to win both halves	21.7%	24.6%	—	—	4.07
Cardiff City to win both halves	3.5%	2.8%	—	—	35.55

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Southampton to win either half	71.4%	72.8%	—	—	1.37
Cardiff City to win neither half	66.4%	67.7%	—	—	1.48
Cardiff City to win either half	33.6%	32.3%	—	—	3.09
Southampton to win neither half	28.6%	27.2%	—	—	3.68

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cardiff City not to win to nil	93.0%	92.1%	76.7%	1.20×	1.09
Southampton not to win to nil	71.6%	75.3%	84.8%	0.89×	1.33
Southampton to win to nil	28.4%	24.7%	15.2%	1.62×	4.05
Cardiff City to win to nil	7.0%	7.9%	23.3%	0.34×	12.64

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	22.8%	24.1%	27.6%	0.87×	4.15
Southampton by 1	22.0%	24.1%	17.4%	1.38×	4.15
Southampton by 3+	19.0%	17.1%	3.2%	5.28×	5.87
Southampton by 2	18.3%	17.0%	8.6%	1.99×	5.87
Cardiff City by 1	10.9%	11.7%	24.2%	0.49×	8.51
Cardiff City by 2	5.0%	2.7%	11.3%	0.24×	36.78
Cardiff City by 3+	2.0%	2.7%	8.1%	0.34×	36.87