Cardiff City v Stoke City — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Tuesday 8 September 2026 · ENG-Championship · 2627

Championship results-only Prediction generated 8 Sep 2026, 11:44 UTC

Cardiff City

1–1

18:45 UTC

Stoke City

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Final pre-match price, taken 8 Sep, 07:54 · 11h before kick-off

Cardiff City win

51.0%

model 50.4%

Draw

27.2%

model 26.9%

Stoke City win

21.8%

model 22.7%

512722

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (419 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 12.9%
2-1 9.7%
1-0 9.5%
2-0 9.1%
0-0 7.8%

Goals

Over 2.5	51.6%	Under 2.5	48.4%
BTTS yes	54.6%	BTTS no	45.4%
Cardiff City 1+	81.3%	Cardiff City 2+	50.0%
Stoke City 1+	65.5%	Stoke City 2+	28.7%

Expected goals 1.68 – 1.06. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

42/100

Data quality

75/100

Model agreement

89%

★ Best pick

Cardiff City (-0.5)

Asian handicap · usually 44%

52.0% fair odds 1.92

strong signal · 11449 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Cardiff City or draw at HT

Double chance 1HT

83.5% fair odds 1.20

moderate signal · 961 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Cardiff City carry the stronger rating, 1367 Elo against 1330.

Risk factors

The component models disagree more than usual (agreement 0.89).

Why the model thinks this

The price

Cardiff City have an estimated 51.0% win probability, against 27.2% for the draw and 21.8% for Stoke City. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.68 for Cardiff City and 1.06 for Stoke City.

Why Cardiff City

Cardiff City carry the stronger rating, 1367 Elo against 1330.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 27.2%. Draws run at 28% in this competition.

Why Stoke City can win

Nothing in the data singles out Stoke City.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Cardiff City, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Stoke City, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Cardiff City: 52% possession, 12.8 shots a match, 11.8 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Stoke City: 42% possession, 10.4 shots a match, 14.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-08 10:52 · team_stats 2026-09-08 06:03 · availability 2026-09-08 11:54 · prediction 2026-09-08 11:44 ·

Cardiff City are the model's most likely outcome at 51.0%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 12.9%. Confidence 42/100, data quality 75/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS	Outcome
ai-blend	502723	1.68–1.06	0%	0%	0%	Home ✗
ai-blend-oos	532720	1.79–1.05	0%	0%	0%	Home ✗
dc-xg	393031	1.35–1.19	1-1 14%	46%	53%	Home ✗
dc-xg-oos	402931	1.37–1.17	1-1 14%	47%	53%	Home ✗

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cardiff City to win	38.9%	36.2%	43.5%	0.83×	2.76
Stoke City to win	31.4%	30.6%	29.0%	1.05×	3.27
Draw	29.7%	27.7%	27.6%	1.00×	3.61

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cardiff City & not both score	21.1%	21.7%	23.4%	0.93×	4.60
Draw & both teams score	20.2%	21.7%	20.4%	1.07×	4.60
Cardiff City & both teams score	17.8%	18.0%	20.2%	0.89×	5.55
Stoke City & not both score	16.6%	18.0%	15.3%	1.18×	5.55
Stoke City & both teams score	14.8%	13.3%	13.8%	0.96×	7.55
Draw & not both score	9.4%	8.4%	7.3%	1.15×	11.92

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cardiff City & over 1.5	29.7%	25.9%	32.5%	0.80×	3.86
Cardiff City & under 3.5	28.2%	25.9%	32.5%	0.80×	3.86
Draw & under 2.5	23.6%	21.6%	21.6%	1.00×	4.63
Draw & under 3.5	23.6%	21.6%	21.6%	1.00×	4.63
Stoke City & over 1.5	23.5%	21.6%	21.4%	1.01×	4.63
Stoke City & under 3.5	23.3%	21.6%	22.3%	0.97×	4.63
Cardiff City & over 2.5	22.5%	21.6%	26.4%	0.82×	4.63
Draw & over 1.5	20.2%	21.6%	20.4%	1.06×	4.63
Stoke City & over 2.5	17.9%	18.0%	16.2%	1.11×	5.57
Cardiff City & under 2.5	16.4%	18.0%	17.2%	1.05×	5.57
Stoke City & under 2.5	13.5%	12.9%	13.0%	0.99×	7.77
Cardiff City & over 3.5	10.8%	12.9%	11.1%	1.16×	7.77
Cardiff City & under 1.5	9.2%	8.0%	11.1%	0.72×	12.56
Draw & under 1.5	9.4%	8.0%	7.3%	1.09×	12.56
Stoke City & under 1.5	7.9%	8.0%	7.7%	1.03×	12.56
Stoke City & over 3.5	8.1%	8.0%	6.8%	1.17×	12.56
Draw & over 2.5	6.1%	8.0%	6.0%	1.32×	12.56
Draw & over 3.5	6.1%	8.0%	6.0%	1.32×	12.56

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cardiff City (1UP)	55.1%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Stoke City (1UP)	48.5%	43.3%	—	—	2.31

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cardiff City (2UP)	38.9%	37.2%	—	—	2.69
Stoke City (2UP)	31.4%	30.8%	—	—	3.25

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half drawn	38.1%	36.0%	—	—	2.78
Cardiff City to win 2nd half	32.6%	34.5%	—	—	2.90
Stoke City to win 2nd half	29.4%	26.5%	—	—	3.78

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Stoke City (+2.5)	93.3%	92.1%	91.9%	1.00×	1.09
Stoke City (+1.5)	81.4%	82.6%	80.7%	1.02×	1.21
Cardiff City (+0.5)	68.6%	68.7%	71.0%	0.97×	1.46
Stoke City (+0.5)	61.1%	63.0%	56.5%	1.11×	1.59
Cardiff City (-0.5)	38.9%	37.0%	43.5%	0.85×	2.70
Stoke City (-0.5)	31.4%	31.3%	29.0%	1.08×	3.20
Cardiff City (-1.5)	18.6%	17.4%	19.3%	0.90×	5.73
Cardiff City (-2.5)	6.7%	7.9%	8.1%	0.98×	12.67

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Stoke City to concede	74.0%	77.1%	77.5%	0.99×	1.30
Stoke City clean sheet	26.0%	22.9%	22.5%	1.02×	4.36

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Stoke City clean sheet in 1st half	56.1%	58.4%	—	—	1.71
Stoke City to concede in 1st half	43.9%	41.6%	—	—	2.41

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Stoke City under 6.5 corners	81.0%	81.4%	—	—	1.23
Stoke City under 5.5 corners	71.8%	71.5%	—	—	1.40
Stoke City over 2.5 corners	70.5%	71.5%	—	—	1.40
Stoke City under 4.5 corners	59.8%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Stoke City over 3.5 corners	54.8%	53.1%	—	—	1.88
Stoke City under 3.5 corners	45.2%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Stoke City over 4.5 corners	40.2%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Stoke City under 2.5 corners	29.5%	28.5%	—	—	3.51
Stoke City over 5.5 corners	28.2%	28.5%	—	—	3.51
Stoke City over 6.5 corners	19.0%	18.6%	—	—	5.39

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Stoke City under 3.5 goals	96.7%	97.4%	97.8%	1.00×	1.03
Stoke City under 2.5 goals	88.2%	87.9%	90.6%	0.97×	1.14
Stoke City over 0.5 goals	69.5%	67.9%	69.4%	0.98×	1.47
Stoke City under 1.5 goals	66.7%	67.8%	69.9%	0.97×	1.47
Stoke City over 1.5 goals	33.3%	32.2%	30.1%	1.07×	3.11
Stoke City under 0.5 goals	30.5%	32.1%	30.6%	1.05×	3.11
Stoke City over 2.5 goals	11.8%	12.1%	9.5%	1.28×	8.27
Stoke City over 3.5 goals	3.3%	2.6%	2.2%	1.16×	38.74

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Stoke City under 1.5 in 1st half	91.7%	94.2%	—	—	1.06
Stoke City under 0.5 in 1st half	62.2%	64.1%	—	—	1.56
Stoke City over 0.5 in 1st half	37.8%	35.9%	—	—	2.78
Stoke City over 1.5 in 1st half	8.3%	5.9%	—	—	17.09

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cardiff City (away no bet)	56.7%	57.5%	61.2%	0.94×	1.74
Draw (away no bet)	43.3%	42.5%	38.8%	1.10×	2.35

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Stoke City even goals	54.7%	52.9%	52.6%	1.01×	1.89
Stoke City odd goals	45.3%	47.1%	47.4%	0.99×	2.12

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	87.6%	87.7%	—	—	1.14
Both halves over 1.5 goals	12.4%	12.3%	—	—	8.14

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	60.3%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Both halves under 1.5 goals	39.7%	42.1%	—	—	2.38

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	51.7%	51.3%	—	—	1.95
Cardiff City to score 2+ in a row	31.3%	29.0%	—	—	3.44
Stoke City to score 2+ in a row	25.6%	25.0%	—	—	4.00
Either team to score 3+ in a row	16.9%	16.3%	—	—	6.14
Cardiff City to score 3+ in a row	10.0%	5.7%	—	—	17.53
Stoke City to score 3+ in a row	7.1%	5.6%	—	—	17.76

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cardiff City corners (+3.5)	91.4%	89.6%	—	—	1.12
Cardiff City corners (+2.5)	87.3%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Cardiff City corners (+1.5)	81.8%	79.7%	—	—	1.25
Stoke City corners (+3.5)	58.8%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Cardiff City corners (-1.5)	58.6%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Stoke City corners (+2.5)	50.3%	52.4%	—	—	1.91
Cardiff City corners (-2.5)	49.8%	47.6%	—	—	2.10
Stoke City corners (+1.5)	41.4%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Cardiff City corners (-3.5)	41.2%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Stoke City corners (-1.5)	18.2%	20.3%	—	—	4.93
Stoke City corners (-2.5)	12.7%	15.5%	—	—	6.45
Stoke City corners (-3.5)	8.6%	10.4%	—	—	9.59

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
12+ corners	43.5%	38.7%	—	—	2.59
0-8 corners	31.3%	33.2%	—	—	3.01
9-11 corners	25.1%	31.2%	—	—	3.20

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 7.5 corners	76.7%	76.5%	—	—	1.31
Over 8.5 corners	68.7%	67.7%	—	—	1.48
Under 12.5 corners	64.0%	63.4%	—	—	1.58
Over 9.5 corners	60.2%	63.4%	—	—	1.58
Under 11.5 corners	56.5%	57.8%	—	—	1.73
Over 10.5 corners	51.7%	53.3%	—	—	1.88
Under 10.5 corners	48.3%	46.7%	—	—	2.14
Over 11.5 corners	43.5%	42.2%	—	—	2.37
Under 9.5 corners	39.8%	36.6%	—	—	2.73
Over 12.5 corners	36.0%	36.6%	—	—	2.73
Under 8.5 corners	31.3%	32.3%	—	—	3.10
Under 7.5 corners	23.3%	23.5%	—	—	4.26

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.8%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	14.2%	11.4%	14.4%	0.79×	8.80
0-0	9.4%	7.4%	7.3%	1.01×	13.53
1-0	9.2%	7.4%	11.1%	0.67×	13.53
2-1	8.5%	7.4%	11.4%	0.65×	13.53
0-1	7.9%	7.4%	7.7%	0.96×	13.53
1-2	7.5%	7.4%	7.9%	0.94×	13.53
2-0	7.2%	7.4%	6.2%	1.19×	13.53
0-2	5.6%	7.4%	5.3%	1.39×	13.53
2-2	5.1%	7.4%	5.2%	1.41×	13.53
0-3	2.2%	1.7%	1.6%	1.06×	57.60
0-4	0.7%	1.7%	0.4%	4.04×	57.61
1-3	3.0%	1.7%	3.1%	0.56×	57.60
1-4	0.9%	1.7%	0.6%	2.89×	57.61
2-3	2.0%	1.7%	1.6%	1.06×	57.60
2-4	0.6%	1.7%	0.3%	6.74×	57.61
3-0	3.2%	1.7%	4.0%	0.43×	57.60
3-1	3.8%	1.7%	4.3%	0.40×	57.59
3-2	2.3%	1.7%	1.8%	0.96×	57.60
3-3	0.9%	1.7%	0.9%	2.02×	57.61
3-4	0.3%	1.7%	0.3%	6.73×	57.61
4-0	1.1%	1.7%	1.7%	1.01×	57.61
4-1	1.3%	1.7%	0.9%	2.02×	57.61
4-2	0.8%	1.7%	0.8%	2.25×	57.61
4-3	0.3%	1.7%	0.2%	10.10×	57.61
4-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.1%	20.20×	57.61
Any other score	2.0%	1.7%	2.9%	0.59×	57.60

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cardiff City leading at HT (DNB)	56.3%	58.3%	—	—	1.72
Stoke City leading at HT (DNB)	43.7%	41.7%	—	—	2.40

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cardiff City or Stoke City (12)	70.3%	72.3%	72.4%	1.00×	1.38
Cardiff City or draw (1X)	68.6%	69.4%	71.0%	0.98×	1.44
Stoke City or draw (X2)	61.1%	63.8%	56.5%	1.13×	1.57

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cardiff City or draw at HT	76.3%	79.9%	—	—	1.25
Stoke City or draw at HT	69.4%	66.4%	—	—	1.51
Cardiff City or Stoke City at HT	54.4%	47.8%	—	—	2.09

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cardiff City or draw (1UP)	68.6%	76.1%	—	—	1.31
Stoke City or draw (1UP)	61.1%	71.6%	—	—	1.40

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cardiff City or draw in 2nd half	70.6%	73.5%	—	—	1.36
Stoke City or draw in 2nd half	67.4%	65.5%	—	—	1.53
Cardiff City or Stoke City in 2nd half	61.9%	64.0%	—	—	1.56

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	64.7%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Neither half drawn	35.3%	38.2%	—	—	2.62

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cardiff City (DNB)	55.4%	58.3%	60.0%	0.97×	1.72
Stoke City (DNB)	44.6%	41.7%	40.0%	1.04×	2.40

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cardiff City to score first	48.1%	45.6%	—	—	2.19
Stoke City to score first	42.4%	41.8%	—	—	2.39
No goal scored	9.4%	7.6%	—	—	13.20

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	52.9%	51.6%	54.2%	0.95×	1.94
Not both teams to score	47.1%	48.4%	45.8%	1.06×	2.07

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both score & under 2.5	39.4%	38.7%	37.3%	1.04×	2.59
Both score & over 2.5	38.7%	38.6%	39.9%	0.97×	2.59
Both score & under 2.5	14.2%	12.3%	14.4%	0.85×	8.15
Not both score & over 2.5	7.8%	8.4%	8.6%	0.98×	11.93

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	87.0%	85.4%	89.0%	0.96×	1.17
Both teams to score 2+	13.0%	14.6%	11.0%	1.33×	6.85

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	72.2%	74.0%	—	—	1.35
Both teams to score in 2nd half	27.8%	26.0%	—	—	3.85

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	59.9%	59.5%	—	—	1.68
Both score 2nd half only	23.3%	20.9%	—	—	4.79
Both score 1st half only	12.3%	10.7%	—	—	9.33
Both score in both halves	4.5%	5.0%	—	—	19.81

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	83.1%	82.5%	—	—	1.21
Both teams to score by HT	16.9%	17.5%	—	—	5.71

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	51.0%	53.3%	—	—	1.88
A half without a goal	49.0%	46.7%	—	—	2.14

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	48.5%	46.9%	50.4%	0.93×	2.13
0-1 goals	26.6%	26.9%	25.9%	1.04×	3.71
4-6 goals	23.4%	23.1%	22.4%	1.03×	4.33
7+ goals	1.5%	1.9%	1.4%	1.35×	53.91

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Stoke City to score exactly 1	36.2%	35.8%	39.4%	0.91×	2.80
Stoke City to score exactly 0	30.5%	33.6%	30.6%	1.10×	2.97
Stoke City to score exactly 2	21.5%	22.5%	20.7%	1.09×	4.44
Stoke City to score 3+	11.8%	13.0%	9.5%	1.38×	7.70

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cardiff City to score exactly 1	35.0%	35.5%	36.9%	0.96×	2.81
Cardiff City to score exactly 0	26.0%	26.1%	22.5%	1.16×	3.83
Cardiff City to score exactly 2	23.6%	23.3%	24.6%	0.95×	4.28
Cardiff City to score 3+	15.4%	19.2%	16.2%	1.19×	5.22

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	45.6%	52.2%	—	—	1.92
Cardiff City leading at HT	30.6%	33.6%	—	—	2.97
Stoke City leading at HT	23.7%	20.1%	—	—	4.98

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cardiff City -1: 2	61.1%	62.8%	—	—	1.59
Cardiff City -1: X	20.3%	23.6%	—	—	4.23
Cardiff City -1: 1	18.6%	17.3%	—	—	5.78

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Stoke City (0:1)	61.1%	61.5%	56.5%	1.09×	1.63
Draw (0:1)	20.3%	24.4%	24.2%	1.01×	4.10
Cardiff City (0:1)	18.6%	17.7%	19.3%	0.92×	5.64

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Stoke City (0:2)	81.4%	83.1%	80.7%	1.03×	1.20
Draw (0:2)	11.9%	10.9%	11.3%	0.96×	9.21
Cardiff City (0:2)	6.7%	7.7%	8.1%	0.95×	12.98

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Stoke City (0:3)	93.3%	92.7%	91.9%	1.01×	1.08
Draw (0:3)	4.7%	2.4%	4.8%	0.49×	42.15
Cardiff City (0:3)	2.0%	2.4%	3.4%	0.71×	42.26

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Stoke City (0:4)	98.0%	98.1%	96.6%	1.01×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	1.5%	1.2%	2.4%	0.51×	81.74
Cardiff City (0:4)	0.5%	1.2%	1.0%	1.19×	81.84

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cardiff City (1:0)	68.6%	69.5%	71.0%	0.98×	1.44
Draw (1:0)	17.8%	17.1%	17.3%	0.99×	5.85
Stoke City (1:0)	13.6%	12.8%	11.9%	1.08×	7.83

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cardiff City (2:0)	86.4%	88.2%	88.1%	1.00×	1.13
Draw (2:0)	9.2%	6.6%	8.7%	0.76×	15.20
Stoke City (2:0)	4.4%	2.4%	3.3%	0.74×	41.20

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	45.7%	48.2%	—	—	2.08
Halves equal	28.3%	26.5%	—	—	3.77
1st half highest scoring	26.0%	26.5%	—	—	3.78

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cardiff City to concede	69.5%	66.6%	69.4%	0.96×	1.50
Cardiff City clean sheet	30.5%	33.4%	30.6%	1.09×	2.99

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cardiff City clean sheet in 1st half	62.2%	64.1%	—	—	1.56
Cardiff City to concede in 1st half	37.8%	35.9%	—	—	2.79

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cardiff City over 2.5 corners	89.0%	86.3%	—	—	1.16
Cardiff City over 3.5 corners	80.4%	80.9%	—	—	1.24
Cardiff City over 4.5 corners	70.2%	71.9%	—	—	1.39
Cardiff City over 5.5 corners	59.4%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Cardiff City under 6.5 corners	51.1%	52.8%	—	—	1.90
Cardiff City over 6.5 corners	48.9%	47.2%	—	—	2.12
Cardiff City under 5.5 corners	40.6%	42.5%	—	—	2.35
Cardiff City under 4.5 corners	29.8%	28.1%	—	—	3.56
Cardiff City under 3.5 corners	19.6%	19.1%	—	—	5.24
Cardiff City under 2.5 corners	11.0%	13.7%	—	—	7.29

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cardiff City under 3.5 goals	95.2%	96.3%	94.8%	1.02×	1.04
Cardiff City under 2.5 goals	84.6%	81.9%	83.8%	0.98×	1.22
Cardiff City over 0.5 goals	74.0%	74.3%	77.5%	0.96×	1.35
Cardiff City under 1.5 goals	61.1%	63.3%	59.4%	1.07×	1.58
Cardiff City over 1.5 goals	38.9%	36.7%	40.6%	0.90×	2.73
Cardiff City under 0.5 goals	26.0%	25.7%	22.5%	1.14×	3.88
Cardiff City over 2.5 goals	15.4%	18.1%	16.2%	1.12×	5.53
Cardiff City over 3.5 goals	4.8%	3.7%	5.2%	0.72×	26.87

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cardiff City under 1.5 in 1st half	88.5%	89.8%	—	—	1.11
Cardiff City under 0.5 in 1st half	56.1%	58.1%	—	—	1.72
Cardiff City over 0.5 in 1st half	43.9%	41.9%	—	—	2.38
Cardiff City over 1.5 in 1st half	11.5%	10.2%	—	—	9.84

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Stoke City (home no bet)	51.4%	51.6%	51.3%	1.01×	1.94
Draw (home no bet)	48.6%	48.4%	48.7%	0.99×	2.06

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cardiff City even goals	53.4%	50.4%	50.5%	1.00×	1.98
Cardiff City odd goals	46.6%	49.6%	49.5%	1.00×	2.02

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	35.1%	38.4%	—	—	2.60
HT 1-0	19.9%	18.7%	—	—	5.35
HT 0-1	16.3%	18.6%	—	—	5.37
HT 1-1	9.8%	7.2%	—	—	13.98
HT 2-0	5.8%	7.1%	—	—	14.05
HT 0-2	3.9%	2.3%	—	—	43.42
Any other HT score	3.3%	2.3%	—	—	43.46
HT 2-1	2.8%	2.3%	—	—	43.50
HT 1-2	2.3%	2.3%	—	—	43.54
HT 2-2	0.7%	2.3%	—	—	43.66

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cardiff City at HT / Cardiff City at FT	22.8%	21.8%	—	—	4.60
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	19.0%	16.8%	—	—	5.96
Stoke City at HT / Stoke City at FT	16.7%	16.8%	—	—	5.97
Draw at HT / Cardiff City at FT	14.1%	12.7%	—	—	7.89
Draw at HT / Stoke City at FT	12.6%	12.7%	—	—	7.90
Cardiff City at HT / Draw at FT	5.7%	6.0%	—	—	16.72
Stoke City at HT / Draw at FT	5.0%	3.5%	—	—	28.73
Cardiff City at HT / Stoke City at FT	2.2%	3.5%	—	—	28.84
Stoke City at HT / Cardiff City at FT	2.1%	3.5%	—	—	28.84

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cardiff City to score last	48.2%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Stoke City to score last	42.4%	40.0%	—	—	2.50
No goal scored	9.4%	7.6%	—	—	13.20

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	90.6%	92.5%	—	—	1.08
Cardiff City to lead by 1 at any time	55.1%	55.0%	—	—	1.82
Stoke City to lead by 1 at any time	48.5%	44.0%	—	—	2.27
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	42.9%	39.2%	—	—	2.55
Cardiff City to lead by 2 at any time	24.2%	19.6%	—	—	5.09
Stoke City to lead by 2 at any time	18.9%	14.9%	—	—	6.71
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	14.1%	10.5%	—	—	9.53
Cardiff City to lead by 3 at any time	8.4%	6.6%	—	—	15.06
Stoke City to lead by 3 at any time	5.7%	6.6%	—	—	15.18

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cardiff City most corners	67.2%	64.5%	—	—	1.55
Stoke City most corners	24.9%	26.0%	—	—	3.85
Corners level	7.9%	8.5%	—	—	11.80

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	86.1%	87.4%	88.8%	0.98×	1.14
1-4 goals	79.2%	78.5%	83.4%	0.94×	1.27
2-6 goals	71.9%	72.3%	72.8%	0.99×	1.38
2-5 goals	69.0%	68.8%	70.2%	0.98×	1.45
1-3 goals	65.6%	68.8%	69.1%	1.00×	1.45
2-4 goals	62.1%	63.1%	64.8%	0.97×	1.58
2-3 goals	48.5%	48.4%	50.4%	0.96×	2.06
3-6 goals	45.0%	43.6%	47.1%	0.93×	2.29
1-2 goals	44.1%	43.6%	44.4%	0.98×	2.29
3-5 goals	42.0%	43.6%	44.5%	0.98×	2.29
3-4 goals	35.1%	39.3%	39.1%	1.00×	2.55
4-6 goals	23.4%	24.8%	22.4%	1.11×	4.03
4-5 goals	20.5%	24.8%	19.8%	1.25×	4.03
5-6 goals	9.8%	9.0%	8.1%	1.11×	11.11
7+ goals	1.5%	2.6%	1.4%	1.87×	38.91

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cardiff City never behind	42.0%	48.2%	—	—	2.07
Stoke City never behind	35.4%	44.6%	—	—	2.25

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	46.7%	50.9%	49.4%	1.03×	1.96
Even number of goals	53.3%	49.1%	50.6%	0.97×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	56.6%	57.4%	—	—	1.74
Odd goals in 1st half	43.4%	42.6%	—	—	2.35

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	53.6%	52.0%	—	—	1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half	46.4%	48.0%	—	—	2.09

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 5.5 goals	95.6%	95.4%	96.0%	0.99×	1.05
Over 0.5 goals	90.6%	92.2%	92.7%	0.99×	1.09
Under 4.5 goals	88.7%	87.4%	90.6%	0.96×	1.14
Under 3.5 goals	75.1%	77.2%	76.3%	1.01×	1.30
Over 1.5 goals	73.4%	72.4%	74.1%	0.98×	1.38
Under 2.5 goals	53.5%	53.0%	51.6%	1.03×	1.89
Over 2.5 goals	46.5%	47.0%	48.4%	0.97×	2.13
Under 1.5 goals	26.6%	27.6%	25.9%	1.06×	3.62
Over 3.5 goals	24.9%	22.8%	23.7%	0.96×	4.38
Over 4.5 goals	11.3%	12.6%	9.4%	1.34×	7.96
Under 0.5 goals	9.4%	7.8%	7.3%	1.07×	12.79
Over 5.5 goals	4.4%	4.6%	4.0%	1.16×	21.73

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	98.4%	97.2%	98.6%	0.99×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	95.2%	97.1%	95.8%	1.01×	1.03
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	86.9%	86.6%	89.1%	0.97×	1.16
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	68.2%	67.6%	68.5%	0.99×	1.48
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	63.6%	61.7%	65.1%	0.95×	1.62
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	36.4%	38.3%	34.9%	1.10×	2.61
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	31.8%	32.4%	31.5%	1.03×	3.09
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	13.1%	13.4%	10.9%	1.23×	7.45
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	4.8%	2.9%	4.2%	0.68×	35.00
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	1.6%	2.9%	1.4%	2.02×	35.08

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	91.0%	92.6%	—	—	1.08
Under 1.5 in 1st half	71.3%	71.2%	—	—	1.40
Over 0.5 in 1st half	64.9%	63.6%	—	—	1.57
Under 0.5 in 1st half	35.1%	36.4%	—	—	2.75
Over 1.5 in 1st half	28.7%	28.8%	—	—	3.47
Over 2.5 in 1st half	9.0%	7.4%	—	—	13.52

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	81.4%	82.7%	—	—	1.21
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	76.7%	79.7%	—	—	1.25
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	56.0%	54.7%	—	—	1.83
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	44.0%	45.3%	—	—	2.21
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	23.3%	20.3%	—	—	4.93
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	18.6%	17.3%	—	—	5.79

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Stoke City not to score in both halves	80.7%	84.3%	—	—	1.19
Cardiff City not to score in both halves	76.5%	78.2%	—	—	1.28
Cardiff City to score in both halves	23.5%	21.8%	—	—	4.59
Stoke City to score in both halves	19.3%	15.7%	—	—	6.37

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	52.9%	54.2%	54.2%	1.00×	1.84
Only Cardiff City scores	21.1%	22.0%	23.4%	0.94×	4.54
Only Stoke City scores	16.6%	16.0%	15.3%	1.05×	6.25
Neither team scores	9.4%	7.2%	7.3%	0.98×	13.99

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	27.0%	24.7%	25.8%	0.96×	4.05
Exactly 3 goals	21.5%	22.4%	24.7%	0.91×	4.46
Exactly 1 goals	17.1%	17.5%	18.7%	0.94×	5.70
Exactly 4 goals	13.6%	12.1%	14.4%	0.83×	8.30
Exactly 0 goals	9.4%	7.8%	7.3%	1.07×	12.82
Exactly 5 goals	6.9%	7.8%	5.5%	1.42×	12.83
6 or more goals	4.4%	4.5%	4.0%	1.14×	22.21

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	44.0%	44.7%	—	—	2.24
1 goal in 2nd half	32.7%	33.3%	—	—	3.00
No goals in 2nd half	23.3%	23.1%	—	—	4.33

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Stoke City not to win both halves	92.8%	94.0%	—	—	1.06
Cardiff City not to win both halves	89.8%	88.0%	—	—	1.14
Cardiff City to win both halves	10.2%	12.0%	—	—	8.34
Stoke City to win both halves	7.2%	6.0%	—	—	16.61

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Stoke City to win neither half	54.1%	54.9%	—	—	1.82
Cardiff City to win either half	53.0%	54.9%	—	—	1.82
Cardiff City to win neither half	47.0%	45.1%	—	—	2.22
Stoke City to win either half	45.9%	45.1%	—	—	2.22

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Stoke City not to win to nil	83.4%	83.1%	84.7%	0.98×	1.20
Cardiff City not to win to nil	78.9%	78.3%	76.6%	1.02×	1.28
Cardiff City to win to nil	21.1%	21.7%	23.4%	0.93×	4.62
Stoke City to win to nil	16.6%	16.9%	15.3%	1.10×	5.93

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	29.7%	27.7%	27.6%	1.01×	3.61
Cardiff City by 1	20.3%	24.1%	24.2%	1.00×	4.14
Stoke City by 1	17.8%	16.9%	17.3%	0.98×	5.92
Cardiff City by 2	11.9%	11.7%	11.3%	1.04×	8.52
Stoke City by 2	9.2%	7.3%	8.7%	0.84×	13.72
Cardiff City by 3+	6.7%	7.3%	8.1%	0.90×	13.73
Stoke City by 3+	4.4%	2.8%	3.3%	0.86×	35.46

Shot-level data has not been ingested for this match yet. Run python -m pipeline.ingest_understat to fill it in.