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Carrarese v Empoli — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 5 September 2026 · ITA-Serie B · 2627

ITA-Serie B results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

ai-blend No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.
Carrarese win
48.3%
Draw
28.3%
Empoli win
23.4%

Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.

Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Empoli are conceding more than the chances against them merit — 3.5 goals above expected, which tends to correct.

LDDLDLLWWL last 10 scored 10 from 11.3 xG conceded 14 from 10.5 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
ai-blend 1.58–1.04 0% 0% 0%
dc-xg 1.59–1.07 1-1 13% 50% 54%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Carrarese to win 48.3% 49.3% 42.8% 1.15× 2.03
Draw 28.3% 27.6% 32.0% 0.86× 3.62
Empoli to win 23.4% 22.2% 25.4% 0.87× 4.51
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Carrarese & not both score 26.5% 26.3% 24.0% 1.10× 3.80
Carrarese & both teams score 21.8% 22.6% 18.9% 1.20× 4.43
Draw & both teams score 19.4% 17.8% 23.0% 0.77× 5.63
Empoli & not both score 11.8% 12.1% 13.3% 0.92× 8.23
Empoli & both teams score 11.6% 12.1% 12.3% 0.99× 8.23
Draw & not both score 8.8% 7.3% 9.1% 0.80× 13.64
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Carrarese & over 1.5 38.4% 37.5% 31.8% 1.18× 2.66
Carrarese & under 3.5 33.3% 33.2% 32.0% 1.04× 3.02
Carrarese & over 2.5 29.3% 25.5% 24.4% 1.05× 3.92
Draw & under 2.5 22.4% 21.5% 23.8% 0.91× 4.65
Draw & under 3.5 22.4% 21.5% 23.8% 0.91× 4.65
Draw & over 1.5 19.4% 17.6% 23.0% 0.76× 5.69
Carrarese & under 2.5 19.0% 17.6% 18.5% 0.95× 5.69
Empoli & under 3.5 17.5% 17.6% 19.9% 0.88× 5.69
Empoli & over 1.5 17.4% 17.6% 18.8% 0.94× 5.69
Carrarese & over 3.5 15.0% 17.6% 10.9% 1.61× 5.70
Empoli & over 2.5 13.5% 12.7% 15.0% 0.85× 7.86
Carrarese & under 1.5 10.0% 7.5% 11.1% 0.67× 13.39
Empoli & under 2.5 10.0% 7.5% 10.5% 0.71× 13.39
Draw & under 1.5 8.8% 7.5% 9.1% 0.82× 13.40
Empoli & under 1.5 6.0% 7.5% 6.8% 1.10× 13.42
Draw & over 2.5 5.9% 7.5% 8.4% 0.89× 13.42
Draw & over 3.5 5.9% 7.5% 8.4% 0.89× 13.42
Empoli & over 3.5 5.9% 7.5% 5.6% 1.33× 13.42
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Carrarese (1UP) 63.1% 64.0% 1.56
Empoli (1UP) 41.3% 43.3% 2.31
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Carrarese (2UP) 48.3% 49.6% 2.02
Empoli (2UP) 23.4% 21.2% 4.72
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Carrarese to win 2nd half 39.6% 37.5% 2.66
2nd half drawn 36.9% 37.5% 2.67
Empoli to win 2nd half 23.5% 22.3% 4.48
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Empoli (+2.5) 89.3% 89.0% 93.3% 0.95× 1.12
Carrarese (+0.5) 76.6% 78.5% 74.6% 1.05× 1.27
Empoli (+1.5) 74.0% 73.1% 80.4% 0.91× 1.37
Empoli (+0.5) 51.7% 51.6% 57.3% 0.90× 1.94
Carrarese (-0.5) 48.3% 48.4% 42.8% 1.13× 2.07
Carrarese (-1.5) 26.0% 26.9% 19.6% 1.37× 3.72
Empoli (-0.5) 23.4% 21.5% 25.4% 0.85× 4.66
Carrarese (-2.5) 10.7% 11.0% 6.8% 1.62× 9.13
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Empoli to concede 79.4% 76.2% 77.8% 0.98× 1.31
Empoli clean sheet 20.6% 23.8% 22.3% 1.07× 4.20
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Empoli clean sheet in 1st half 50.7% 54.6% 1.83
Empoli to concede in 1st half 49.3% 45.4% 2.21
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Empoli under 3.5 goals 97.8% 97.3% 98.3% 0.99× 1.03
Empoli under 2.5 goals 91.2% 92.6% 90.9% 1.02× 1.08
Empoli under 1.5 goals 72.1% 71.9% 69.4% 1.04× 1.39
Empoli over 0.5 goals 64.6% 64.3% 67.0% 0.96× 1.56
Empoli under 0.5 goals 35.4% 35.7% 33.0% 1.08× 2.80
Empoli over 1.5 goals 27.9% 28.1% 30.6% 0.92× 3.56
Empoli over 2.5 goals 8.8% 7.4% 9.1% 0.81× 13.53
Empoli over 3.5 goals 2.2% 2.7% 1.8% 1.52× 37.56
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Empoli under 1.5 in 1st half 93.4% 93.3% 1.07
Empoli under 0.5 in 1st half 66.0% 67.1% 1.49
Empoli over 0.5 in 1st half 34.0% 32.9% 3.04
Empoli over 1.5 in 1st half 6.6% 6.7% 14.86
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Carrarese (away no bet) 63.1% 59.1% 57.2% 1.03× 1.69
Draw (away no bet) 36.9% 40.9% 42.8% 0.96× 2.44
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Empoli even goals 56.3% 57.9% 55.5% 1.04× 1.73
Empoli odd goals 43.7% 42.1% 44.5% 0.95× 2.38
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 86.5% 86.4% 1.16
Both halves over 1.5 goals 13.5% 13.6% 7.34
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves under 1.5 62.3% 66.3% 1.51
Both halves under 1.5 goals 37.7% 33.7% 2.97
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 54.3% 53.0% 1.89
Carrarese to score 2+ in a row 39.3% 37.4% 2.67
Empoli to score 2+ in a row 20.3% 21.7% 4.60
Either team to score 3+ in a row 19.3% 17.9% 5.60
Carrarese to score 3+ in a row 14.7% 12.2% 8.17
Empoli to score 3+ in a row 4.8% 3.4% 29.16
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-1 13.5% 11.6% 14.8% 0.79× 8.62
1-0 10.0% 7.3% 11.1% 0.65× 13.73
2-1 9.5% 7.3% 9.8% 0.75× 13.74
0-0 8.8% 7.3% 9.1% 0.80× 13.74
2-0 9.1% 7.3% 7.5% 0.97× 13.74
1-2 6.2% 7.3% 7.4% 0.99× 13.75
0-1 6.0% 7.3% 6.8% 1.08× 13.75
2-2 4.9% 1.8% 7.4% 0.24× 55.39
3-1 5.0% 1.8% 4.5% 0.40× 55.38
0-2 3.9% 1.8% 3.9% 0.47× 55.41
3-0 4.8% 1.8% 4.0% 0.45× 55.39
3-2 2.6% 1.8% 2.5% 0.72× 55.44
Any other score 2.7% 1.8% 2.1% 0.85× 55.44
0-3 1.4% 1.8% 2.3% 0.80× 55.47
1-3 2.2% 1.8% 2.6% 0.69× 55.45
2-3 1.7% 1.8% 1.5% 1.20× 55.47
4-0 1.9% 1.8% 1.1% 1.60× 55.46
4-1 2.0% 1.8% 0.8% 2.40× 55.46
0-4 0.4% 1.8% 0.8% 2.40× 55.50
1-4 0.6% 1.8% 0.3% 7.21× 55.49
2-4 0.4% 1.8% 0.1% 14.42× 55.50
3-3 0.9% 1.8% 1.1% 1.60× 55.49
3-4 0.2% 1.8% 0.4% 4.80× 55.50
4-2 1.0% 1.8% 1.0% 1.80× 55.48
4-3 0.4% 1.8% 0.3% 7.21× 55.50
4-4 0.1% 1.8% 0.1% 14.41× 55.51
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Carrarese leading at HT (DNB) 65.4% 66.7% 1.50
Empoli leading at HT (DNB) 34.6% 33.3% 3.01
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Carrarese or draw (1X) 76.6% 77.8% 74.6% 1.04× 1.29
Carrarese or Empoli (12) 71.7% 72.4% 68.0% 1.06× 1.38
Empoli or draw (X2) 51.7% 50.7% 57.3% 0.89× 1.97
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Carrarese or draw at HT 80.6% 81.6% 1.23
Empoli or draw at HT 63.5% 63.2% 1.58
Carrarese or Empoli at HT 55.9% 58.2% 1.72
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Carrarese or draw (1UP) 76.6% 84.6% 1.18
Empoli or draw (1UP) 51.7% 58.7% 1.71
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Carrarese or draw in 2nd half 76.5% 77.7% 1.29
Carrarese or Empoli in 2nd half 63.1% 62.5% 1.60
Empoli or draw in 2nd half 60.4% 62.5% 1.60
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half drawn 63.1% 59.4% 1.68
Neither half drawn 37.0% 40.6% 2.47
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Carrarese (DNB) 67.4% 68.3% 62.8% 1.09× 1.46
Empoli (DNB) 32.6% 31.7% 37.2% 0.85× 3.16
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Carrarese to score first 55.0% 53.8% 1.86
Empoli to score first 36.2% 37.1% 2.69
No goal scored 8.8% 6.3% 15.89
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams to score 52.9% 52.9% 53.9% 0.98× 1.89
Not both teams to score 47.1% 47.1% 46.1% 1.02× 2.12
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both score & over 2.5 39.4% 37.5% 39.3% 0.96× 2.67
Not both score & under 2.5 37.8% 37.5% 37.9% 0.99× 2.67
Both score & under 2.5 13.5% 11.7% 14.8% 0.80× 8.52
Not both score & over 2.5 9.3% 8.7% 8.4% 1.04× 11.44
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 86.9% 85.5% 86.0% 0.99× 1.17
Both teams to score 2+ 13.1% 14.5% 14.0% 1.03× 6.91
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 71.9% 70.4% 1.42
Both teams to score in 2nd half 28.1% 29.6% 3.38
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 59.5% 57.7% 1.73
Both score 2nd half only 23.5% 24.4% 4.10
Both score 1st half only 12.4% 11.6% 8.65
Both score in both halves 4.6% 4.8% 20.69
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 83.0% 83.2% 1.20
Both teams to score by HT 17.0% 16.8% 5.95
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A goal in each half 52.8% 54.7% 1.83
A half without a goal 47.2% 45.3% 2.21
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-3 goals 48.4% 45.9% 48.8% 0.94× 2.18
4-6 goals 25.0% 27.6% 23.4% 1.18× 3.62
0-1 goals 24.8% 22.9% 26.8% 0.85× 4.38
7+ goals 1.8% 1.9% 1.4% 1.41× 51.62
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Empoli to score exactly 1 36.8% 34.6% 36.5% 0.95× 2.89
Empoli to score exactly 0 35.4% 34.5% 33.0% 1.05× 2.90
Empoli to score exactly 2 19.1% 18.4% 21.6% 0.85× 5.44
Empoli to score 3+ 8.8% 7.7% 9.1% 0.84× 13.02
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Carrarese to score exactly 1 32.5% 30.6% 35.9% 0.85× 3.27
Carrarese to score exactly 2 25.7% 27.0% 26.0% 1.04× 3.70
Carrarese to score 3+ 21.1% 22.9% 16.1% 1.42× 4.36
Carrarese to score exactly 0 20.6% 22.9% 22.3% 1.03× 4.36
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw at HT 44.1% 41.8% 2.39
Carrarese leading at HT 36.5% 36.8% 2.72
Empoli leading at HT 19.4% 18.4% 5.43
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Carrarese -1: 2 51.7% 51.5% 1.94
Carrarese -1: 1 26.0% 27.0% 3.70
Carrarese -1: X 22.4% 23.9% 4.18
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Empoli (0:1) 51.7% 53.3% 57.3% 0.93× 1.88
Carrarese (0:1) 26.0% 26.2% 19.6% 1.34× 3.81
Draw (0:1) 22.4% 24.4% 23.3% 1.05× 4.10
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Empoli (0:2) 74.0% 73.3% 80.4% 0.91× 1.36
Draw (0:2) 15.2% 16.2% 13.0% 1.25× 6.16
Carrarese (0:2) 10.7% 11.7% 6.8% 1.73× 8.56
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Empoli (0:3) 89.3% 88.5% 93.3% 0.95× 1.13
Draw (0:3) 7.1% 6.9% 4.6% 1.49× 14.47
Carrarese (0:3) 3.6% 2.3% 2.3% 1.04× 42.80
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Empoli (0:4) 96.4% 98.0% 97.8% 1.00× 1.02
Draw (0:4) 2.6% 1.3% 1.4% 0.91× 80.01
Carrarese (0:4) 1.0% 1.2% 1.0% 1.24× 80.82
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Carrarese (1:0) 76.6% 78.0% 74.6% 1.04× 1.28
Draw (1:0) 14.2% 11.8% 15.6% 0.76× 8.46
Empoli (1:0) 9.2% 8.6% 9.9% 0.87× 11.60
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Carrarese (2:0) 90.8% 91.6% 90.1% 1.02× 1.09
Draw (2:0) 6.6% 6.6% 6.5% 1.01× 15.19
Empoli (2:0) 2.6% 2.7% 3.5% 0.77× 37.16
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 45.9% 48.7% 2.06
Halves equal 27.9% 26.1% 3.83
1st half highest scoring 26.3% 26.1% 3.83
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Carrarese to concede 64.6% 66.2% 67.0% 0.99× 1.51
Carrarese clean sheet 35.4% 33.8% 33.0% 1.02× 2.96
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Carrarese clean sheet in 1st half 66.0% 67.3% 1.49
Carrarese to concede in 1st half 34.0% 32.7% 3.05
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Carrarese under 3.5 goals 92.4% 92.1% 95.9% 0.96× 1.09
Carrarese over 0.5 goals 79.4% 76.8% 77.8% 0.99× 1.30
Carrarese under 2.5 goals 78.9% 76.8% 83.9% 0.92× 1.30
Carrarese under 1.5 goals 53.1% 52.8% 58.0% 0.91× 1.90
Carrarese over 1.5 goals 46.9% 47.2% 42.0% 1.12× 2.12
Carrarese over 2.5 goals 21.1% 23.2% 16.1% 1.44× 4.31
Carrarese under 0.5 goals 20.6% 23.2% 22.3% 1.04× 4.31
Carrarese over 3.5 goals 7.6% 7.9% 4.1% 1.92× 12.64
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Carrarese under 1.5 in 1st half 85.1% 87.7% 1.14
Carrarese under 0.5 in 1st half 50.7% 54.6% 1.83
Carrarese over 0.5 in 1st half 49.3% 45.4% 2.21
Carrarese over 1.5 in 1st half 14.9% 12.3% 8.12
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Empoli (home no bet) 45.3% 51.2% 44.2% 1.16× 1.95
Draw (home no bet) 54.7% 48.8% 55.8% 0.88× 2.05
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Carrarese even goals 52.1% 50.3% 51.0% 0.99× 1.99
Carrarese odd goals 47.9% 49.8% 49.0% 1.02× 2.01
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 0-0 33.7% 30.6% 3.27
HT 1-0 22.5% 22.6% 4.42
HT 0-1 13.6% 11.2% 8.92
HT 1-1 9.7% 7.7% 12.97
HT 2-0 7.7% 7.7% 13.00
Any other HT score 4.0% 2.5% 39.77
HT 2-1 3.2% 2.5% 39.82
HT 0-2 2.9% 2.5% 39.84
HT 1-2 2.0% 2.5% 39.89
HT 2-2 0.7% 2.5% 39.96
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Carrarese at HT / Carrarese at FT 29.3% 27.2% 3.67
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 18.0% 16.8% 5.96
Draw at HT / Carrarese at FT 16.6% 16.8% 5.97
Empoli at HT / Empoli at FT 12.1% 12.0% 8.36
Draw at HT / Empoli at FT 9.6% 6.6% 15.16
Carrarese at HT / Draw at FT 5.5% 6.6% 15.26
Empoli at HT / Draw at FT 4.8% 3.4% 29.31
Empoli at HT / Carrarese at FT 2.4% 3.4% 29.41
Carrarese at HT / Empoli at FT 1.7% 3.4% 29.44
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Carrarese to score last 55.1% 56.4% 1.77
Empoli to score last 36.0% 37.9% 2.64
No goal scored 8.8% 6.3% 15.89
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 91.2% 93.7% 1.07
Carrarese to lead by 1 at any time 63.1% 64.4% 1.55
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 45.7% 46.1% 2.17
Empoli to lead by 1 at any time 41.3% 42.1% 2.38
Carrarese to lead by 2 at any time 32.0% 32.0% 3.12
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 16.5% 17.6% 5.67
Empoli to lead by 2 at any time 13.9% 11.4% 8.81
Carrarese to lead by 3 at any time 12.9% 11.3% 8.82
Empoli to lead by 3 at any time 3.7% 2.6% 38.05
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-5 goals 86.1% 87.9% 87.3% 1.01× 1.14
1-4 goals 78.6% 78.9% 82.1% 0.96× 1.27
2-6 goals 73.4% 73.6% 72.0% 1.02× 1.36
2-5 goals 70.1% 73.6% 69.6% 1.06× 1.36
1-3 goals 64.3% 62.3% 66.4% 0.94× 1.61
2-4 goals 62.7% 62.3% 64.5% 0.97× 1.61
2-3 goals 48.4% 48.0% 48.8% 0.99× 2.08
3-6 goals 46.9% 48.0% 46.3% 1.04× 2.08
3-5 goals 43.6% 43.6% 43.9% 0.99× 2.29
1-2 goals 42.5% 43.6% 43.5% 1.00× 2.29
3-4 goals 36.1% 38.8% 38.8% 1.00× 2.58
4-6 goals 25.0% 30.4% 23.4% 1.30× 3.29
4-5 goals 21.8% 24.7% 21.0% 1.18× 4.05
5-6 goals 10.8% 13.4% 7.6% 1.76× 7.46
7+ goals 1.8% 2.0% 1.4% 1.47× 49.60
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Carrarese never behind 49.9% 53.8% 1.86
Empoli never behind 28.1% 31.0% 3.22
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of goals 46.6% 50.1% 46.6% 1.07× 2.00
Even number of goals 53.4% 49.9% 53.4% 0.93× 2.00
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 56.1% 55.3% 1.81
Odd goals in 1st half 43.9% 44.7% 2.24
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 53.4% 51.7% 1.93
Odd goals in 2nd half 46.6% 48.3% 2.07
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 5.5 goals 95.0% 93.0% 96.3% 0.97× 1.08
Over 0.5 goals 91.2% 92.9% 90.9% 1.02× 1.08
Under 4.5 goals 87.5% 88.8% 91.1% 0.97× 1.13
Over 1.5 goals 75.2% 78.2% 73.3% 1.07× 1.28
Under 3.5 goals 73.2% 72.4% 75.4% 0.96× 1.38
Under 2.5 goals 51.4% 53.5% 52.5% 1.02× 1.87
Over 2.5 goals 48.6% 46.5% 47.5% 0.98× 2.15
Over 3.5 goals 26.8% 27.6% 24.6% 1.12× 3.63
Under 1.5 goals 24.8% 21.8% 26.8% 0.82× 4.59
Over 4.5 goals 12.5% 11.2% 8.9% 1.27× 8.90
Under 0.5 goals 8.8% 7.1% 9.1% 0.77× 14.15
Over 5.5 goals 5.0% 7.0% 3.8% 1.87× 14.23
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 98.2% 97.2% 98.6% 0.99× 1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 94.5% 92.8% 96.0% 0.97× 1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 85.4% 88.0% 89.5% 0.98× 1.14
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 66.2% 68.0% 64.0% 1.06× 1.47
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 65.7% 68.0% 68.1% 1.00× 1.47
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 34.3% 32.0% 31.9% 1.00× 3.12
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 33.8% 32.0% 36.0% 0.89× 3.12
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 14.6% 12.0% 10.5% 1.14× 8.35
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 5.5% 7.2% 4.0% 1.83× 13.83
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 1.8% 2.8% 1.4% 1.96× 36.17
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half 90.1% 92.1% 1.09
Under 1.5 in 1st half 69.8% 68.6% 1.46
Over 0.5 in 1st half 66.3% 68.5% 1.46
Under 0.5 in 1st half 33.7% 31.5% 3.18
Over 1.5 in 1st half 30.2% 31.4% 3.19
Over 2.5 in 1st half 9.9% 7.9% 12.72
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 80.3% 82.0% 1.22
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 77.7% 80.3% 1.25
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 45.6% 51.8% 1.93
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 54.4% 48.2% 2.07
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 22.3% 19.7% 5.07
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 19.7% 18.0% 5.56
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Empoli not to score in both halves 84.2% 81.6% 1.23
Carrarese not to score in both halves 70.7% 70.3% 1.42
Carrarese to score in both halves 29.3% 29.7% 3.37
Empoli to score in both halves 15.8% 18.4% 5.43
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams score 52.9% 54.7% 53.9% 1.02× 1.83
Only Carrarese scores 26.5% 25.6% 24.0% 1.07× 3.90
Only Empoli scores 11.8% 10.8% 13.3% 0.81× 9.27
Neither team scores 8.8% 6.7% 9.1% 0.73× 14.98
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 2 goals 26.5% 24.7% 25.9% 0.96× 4.05
Exactly 3 goals 21.8% 21.5% 23.0% 0.94× 4.64
Exactly 1 goals 16.0% 18.5% 17.8% 1.04× 5.39
Exactly 4 goals 14.3% 12.4% 15.9% 0.78× 8.08
Exactly 0 goals 8.8% 7.6% 9.1% 0.84× 13.12
Exactly 5 goals 7.5% 7.6% 5.3% 1.45× 13.13
6 or more goals 5.0% 7.6% 3.8% 2.03× 13.17
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half 45.6% 50.8% 1.97
1 goal in 2nd half 32.1% 33.2% 3.02
No goals in 2nd half 22.3% 18.5% 5.40
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Empoli not to win both halves 95.3% 96.6% 1.04
Carrarese not to win both halves 85.2% 87.5% 1.14
Carrarese to win both halves 14.8% 12.5% 7.97
Empoli to win both halves 4.7% 3.4% 29.66
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Empoli to win neither half 61.8% 63.6% 1.57
Carrarese to win either half 61.4% 63.6% 1.57
Carrarese to win neither half 38.6% 36.4% 2.75
Empoli to win either half 38.2% 36.4% 2.75
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Empoli not to win to nil 88.2% 88.3% 86.8% 1.02× 1.13
Carrarese not to win to nil 73.5% 74.4% 76.0% 0.98× 1.35
Carrarese to win to nil 26.5% 25.6% 24.0% 1.07× 3.90
Empoli to win to nil 11.8% 11.7% 13.3% 0.88× 8.55
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw 28.3% 28.0% 32.0% 0.88× 3.57
Carrarese by 1 22.4% 23.7% 23.3% 1.02× 4.21
Carrarese by 2 15.2% 17.0% 13.0% 1.30× 5.90
Empoli by 1 14.2% 11.9% 15.6% 0.76× 8.42
Carrarese by 3+ 10.7% 11.8% 6.8% 1.75× 8.45
Empoli by 2 6.6% 7.1% 6.5% 1.09× 14.12
Empoli by 3+ 2.6% 2.8% 3.5% 0.81× 35.40
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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