Carrarese v Empoli — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 5 September 2026 · ITA-Serie B · 2627
AI prediction
ai-blend No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Empoli are conceding more than the chances against them merit — 3.5 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend | 1.58–1.04 | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| dc-xg | 1.59–1.07 | 1-1 13% | 50% | 54% |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Using this section
All markets
Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.
1X2 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carrarese to win | 48.3% | 49.3% | 42.8% | 1.15× | 2.03 |
| Draw | 28.3% | 27.6% | 32.0% | 0.86× | 3.62 |
| Empoli to win | 23.4% | 22.2% | 25.4% | 0.87× | 4.51 |
1X2 & GG/NG 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carrarese & not both score | 26.5% | 26.3% | 24.0% | 1.10× | 3.80 |
| Carrarese & both teams score | 21.8% | 22.6% | 18.9% | 1.20× | 4.43 |
| Draw & both teams score | 19.4% | 17.8% | 23.0% | 0.77× | 5.63 |
| Empoli & not both score | 11.8% | 12.1% | 13.3% | 0.92× | 8.23 |
| Empoli & both teams score | 11.6% | 12.1% | 12.3% | 0.99× | 8.23 |
| Draw & not both score | 8.8% | 7.3% | 9.1% | 0.80× | 13.64 |
1X2 & Over/Under 18
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carrarese & over 1.5 | 38.4% | 37.5% | 31.8% | 1.18× | 2.66 |
| Carrarese & under 3.5 | 33.3% | 33.2% | 32.0% | 1.04× | 3.02 |
| Carrarese & over 2.5 | 29.3% | 25.5% | 24.4% | 1.05× | 3.92 |
| Draw & under 2.5 | 22.4% | 21.5% | 23.8% | 0.91× | 4.65 |
| Draw & under 3.5 | 22.4% | 21.5% | 23.8% | 0.91× | 4.65 |
| Draw & over 1.5 | 19.4% | 17.6% | 23.0% | 0.76× | 5.69 |
| Carrarese & under 2.5 | 19.0% | 17.6% | 18.5% | 0.95× | 5.69 |
| Empoli & under 3.5 | 17.5% | 17.6% | 19.9% | 0.88× | 5.69 |
| Empoli & over 1.5 | 17.4% | 17.6% | 18.8% | 0.94× | 5.69 |
| Carrarese & over 3.5 | 15.0% | 17.6% | 10.9% | 1.61× | 5.70 |
| Empoli & over 2.5 | 13.5% | 12.7% | 15.0% | 0.85× | 7.86 |
| Carrarese & under 1.5 | 10.0% | 7.5% | 11.1% | 0.67× | 13.39 |
| Empoli & under 2.5 | 10.0% | 7.5% | 10.5% | 0.71× | 13.39 |
| Draw & under 1.5 | 8.8% | 7.5% | 9.1% | 0.82× | 13.40 |
| Empoli & under 1.5 | 6.0% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 1.10× | 13.42 |
| Draw & over 2.5 | 5.9% | 7.5% | 8.4% | 0.89× | 13.42 |
| Draw & over 3.5 | 5.9% | 7.5% | 8.4% | 0.89× | 13.42 |
| Empoli & over 3.5 | 5.9% | 7.5% | 5.6% | 1.33× | 13.42 |
1X2 1UP 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carrarese (1UP) | 63.1% | 64.0% | — | — | 1.56 |
| Empoli (1UP) | 41.3% | 43.3% | — | — | 2.31 |
1X2 2UP 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carrarese (2UP) | 48.3% | 49.6% | — | — | 2.02 |
| Empoli (2UP) | 23.4% | 21.2% | — | — | 4.72 |
2nd half 1X2 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carrarese to win 2nd half | 39.6% | 37.5% | — | — | 2.66 |
| 2nd half drawn | 36.9% | 37.5% | — | — | 2.67 |
| Empoli to win 2nd half | 23.5% | 22.3% | — | — | 4.48 |
Asian handicap 8
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Empoli (+2.5) | 89.3% | 89.0% | 93.3% | 0.95× | 1.12 |
| Carrarese (+0.5) | 76.6% | 78.5% | 74.6% | 1.05× | 1.27 |
| Empoli (+1.5) | 74.0% | 73.1% | 80.4% | 0.91× | 1.37 |
| Empoli (+0.5) | 51.7% | 51.6% | 57.3% | 0.90× | 1.94 |
| Carrarese (-0.5) | 48.3% | 48.4% | 42.8% | 1.13× | 2.07 |
| Carrarese (-1.5) | 26.0% | 26.9% | 19.6% | 1.37× | 3.72 |
| Empoli (-0.5) | 23.4% | 21.5% | 25.4% | 0.85× | 4.66 |
| Carrarese (-2.5) | 10.7% | 11.0% | 6.8% | 1.62× | 9.13 |
Away clean sheet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Empoli to concede | 79.4% | 76.2% | 77.8% | 0.98× | 1.31 |
| Empoli clean sheet | 20.6% | 23.8% | 22.3% | 1.07× | 4.20 |
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Empoli clean sheet in 1st half | 50.7% | 54.6% | — | — | 1.83 |
| Empoli to concede in 1st half | 49.3% | 45.4% | — | — | 2.21 |
Away goals O/U 8
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Empoli under 3.5 goals | 97.8% | 97.3% | 98.3% | 0.99× | 1.03 |
| Empoli under 2.5 goals | 91.2% | 92.6% | 90.9% | 1.02× | 1.08 |
| Empoli under 1.5 goals | 72.1% | 71.9% | 69.4% | 1.04× | 1.39 |
| Empoli over 0.5 goals | 64.6% | 64.3% | 67.0% | 0.96× | 1.56 |
| Empoli under 0.5 goals | 35.4% | 35.7% | 33.0% | 1.08× | 2.80 |
| Empoli over 1.5 goals | 27.9% | 28.1% | 30.6% | 0.92× | 3.56 |
| Empoli over 2.5 goals | 8.8% | 7.4% | 9.1% | 0.81× | 13.53 |
| Empoli over 3.5 goals | 2.2% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 1.52× | 37.56 |
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Empoli under 1.5 in 1st half | 93.4% | 93.3% | — | — | 1.07 |
| Empoli under 0.5 in 1st half | 66.0% | 67.1% | — | — | 1.49 |
| Empoli over 0.5 in 1st half | 34.0% | 32.9% | — | — | 3.04 |
| Empoli over 1.5 in 1st half | 6.6% | 6.7% | — | — | 14.86 |
Away no bet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carrarese (away no bet) | 63.1% | 59.1% | 57.2% | 1.03× | 1.69 |
| Draw (away no bet) | 36.9% | 40.9% | 42.8% | 0.96× | 2.44 |
Away Odd/Even 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Empoli even goals | 56.3% | 57.9% | 55.5% | 1.04× | 1.73 |
| Empoli odd goals | 43.7% | 42.1% | 44.5% | 0.95× | 2.38 |
Both halves O1.5 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both halves over 1.5 | 86.5% | 86.4% | — | — | 1.16 |
| Both halves over 1.5 goals | 13.5% | 13.6% | — | — | 7.34 |
Both halves U1.5 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both halves under 1.5 | 62.3% | 66.3% | — | — | 1.51 |
| Both halves under 1.5 goals | 37.7% | 33.7% | — | — | 2.97 |
Consecutive goals 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Either team to score 2+ in a row | 54.3% | 53.0% | — | — | 1.89 |
| Carrarese to score 2+ in a row | 39.3% | 37.4% | — | — | 2.67 |
| Empoli to score 2+ in a row | 20.3% | 21.7% | — | — | 4.60 |
| Either team to score 3+ in a row | 19.3% | 17.9% | — | — | 5.60 |
| Carrarese to score 3+ in a row | 14.7% | 12.2% | — | — | 8.17 |
| Empoli to score 3+ in a row | 4.8% | 3.4% | — | — | 29.16 |
Correct score 26
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 13.5% | 11.6% | 14.8% | 0.79× | 8.62 |
| 1-0 | 10.0% | 7.3% | 11.1% | 0.65× | 13.73 |
| 2-1 | 9.5% | 7.3% | 9.8% | 0.75× | 13.74 |
| 0-0 | 8.8% | 7.3% | 9.1% | 0.80× | 13.74 |
| 2-0 | 9.1% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 0.97× | 13.74 |
| 1-2 | 6.2% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 0.99× | 13.75 |
| 0-1 | 6.0% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 1.08× | 13.75 |
| 2-2 | 4.9% | 1.8% | 7.4% | 0.24× | 55.39 |
| 3-1 | 5.0% | 1.8% | 4.5% | 0.40× | 55.38 |
| 0-2 | 3.9% | 1.8% | 3.9% | 0.47× | 55.41 |
| 3-0 | 4.8% | 1.8% | 4.0% | 0.45× | 55.39 |
| 3-2 | 2.6% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 0.72× | 55.44 |
| Any other score | 2.7% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 0.85× | 55.44 |
| 0-3 | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 0.80× | 55.47 |
| 1-3 | 2.2% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 0.69× | 55.45 |
| 2-3 | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 1.20× | 55.47 |
| 4-0 | 1.9% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 1.60× | 55.46 |
| 4-1 | 2.0% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 2.40× | 55.46 |
| 0-4 | 0.4% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 2.40× | 55.50 |
| 1-4 | 0.6% | 1.8% | 0.3% | 7.21× | 55.49 |
| 2-4 | 0.4% | 1.8% | 0.1% | 14.42× | 55.50 |
| 3-3 | 0.9% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 1.60× | 55.49 |
| 3-4 | 0.2% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 4.80× | 55.50 |
| 4-2 | 1.0% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 1.80× | 55.48 |
| 4-3 | 0.4% | 1.8% | 0.3% | 7.21× | 55.50 |
| 4-4 | 0.1% | 1.8% | 0.1% | 14.41× | 55.51 |
DNB half time 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carrarese leading at HT (DNB) | 65.4% | 66.7% | — | — | 1.50 |
| Empoli leading at HT (DNB) | 34.6% | 33.3% | — | — | 3.01 |
Double chance 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carrarese or draw (1X) | 76.6% | 77.8% | 74.6% | 1.04× | 1.29 |
| Carrarese or Empoli (12) | 71.7% | 72.4% | 68.0% | 1.06× | 1.38 |
| Empoli or draw (X2) | 51.7% | 50.7% | 57.3% | 0.89× | 1.97 |
Double chance 1HT 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carrarese or draw at HT | 80.6% | 81.6% | — | — | 1.23 |
| Empoli or draw at HT | 63.5% | 63.2% | — | — | 1.58 |
| Carrarese or Empoli at HT | 55.9% | 58.2% | — | — | 1.72 |
Double chance 1UP 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carrarese or draw (1UP) | 76.6% | 84.6% | — | — | 1.18 |
| Empoli or draw (1UP) | 51.7% | 58.7% | — | — | 1.71 |
Double chance 2HT 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carrarese or draw in 2nd half | 76.5% | 77.7% | — | — | 1.29 |
| Carrarese or Empoli in 2nd half | 63.1% | 62.5% | — | — | 1.60 |
| Empoli or draw in 2nd half | 60.4% | 62.5% | — | — | 1.60 |
Draw either half 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A half drawn | 63.1% | 59.4% | — | — | 1.68 |
| Neither half drawn | 37.0% | 40.6% | — | — | 2.47 |
Draw no bet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carrarese (DNB) | 67.4% | 68.3% | 62.8% | 1.09× | 1.46 |
| Empoli (DNB) | 32.6% | 31.7% | 37.2% | 0.85× | 3.16 |
First goal 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carrarese to score first | 55.0% | 53.8% | — | — | 1.86 |
| Empoli to score first | 36.2% | 37.1% | — | — | 2.69 |
| No goal scored | 8.8% | 6.3% | — | — | 15.89 |
GG/NG 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 52.9% | 52.9% | 53.9% | 0.98× | 1.89 |
| Not both teams to score | 47.1% | 47.1% | 46.1% | 1.02× | 2.12 |
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both score & over 2.5 | 39.4% | 37.5% | 39.3% | 0.96× | 2.67 |
| Not both score & under 2.5 | 37.8% | 37.5% | 37.9% | 0.99× | 2.67 |
| Both score & under 2.5 | 13.5% | 11.7% | 14.8% | 0.80× | 8.52 |
| Not both score & over 2.5 | 9.3% | 8.7% | 8.4% | 1.04× | 11.44 |
GG/NG 2+ 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both teams to score 2+ | 86.9% | 85.5% | 86.0% | 0.99× | 1.17 |
| Both teams to score 2+ | 13.1% | 14.5% | 14.0% | 1.03× | 6.91 |
GG/NG 2nd half 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both to score in 2nd half | 71.9% | 70.4% | — | — | 1.42 |
| Both teams to score in 2nd half | 28.1% | 29.6% | — | — | 3.38 |
GG/NG by half 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neither half both score | 59.5% | 57.7% | — | — | 1.73 |
| Both score 2nd half only | 23.5% | 24.4% | — | — | 4.10 |
| Both score 1st half only | 12.4% | 11.6% | — | — | 8.65 |
| Both score in both halves | 4.6% | 4.8% | — | — | 20.69 |
GG/NG half time 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both to score by HT | 83.0% | 83.2% | — | — | 1.20 |
| Both teams to score by HT | 17.0% | 16.8% | — | — | 5.95 |
Goal in both halves 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A goal in each half | 52.8% | 54.7% | — | — | 1.83 |
| A half without a goal | 47.2% | 45.3% | — | — | 2.21 |
Goal range 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2-3 goals | 48.4% | 45.9% | 48.8% | 0.94× | 2.18 |
| 4-6 goals | 25.0% | 27.6% | 23.4% | 1.18× | 3.62 |
| 0-1 goals | 24.8% | 22.9% | 26.8% | 0.85× | 4.38 |
| 7+ goals | 1.8% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 1.41× | 51.62 |
Goals away 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Empoli to score exactly 1 | 36.8% | 34.6% | 36.5% | 0.95× | 2.89 |
| Empoli to score exactly 0 | 35.4% | 34.5% | 33.0% | 1.05× | 2.90 |
| Empoli to score exactly 2 | 19.1% | 18.4% | 21.6% | 0.85× | 5.44 |
| Empoli to score 3+ | 8.8% | 7.7% | 9.1% | 0.84× | 13.02 |
Goals home 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carrarese to score exactly 1 | 32.5% | 30.6% | 35.9% | 0.85× | 3.27 |
| Carrarese to score exactly 2 | 25.7% | 27.0% | 26.0% | 1.04× | 3.70 |
| Carrarese to score 3+ | 21.1% | 22.9% | 16.1% | 1.42× | 4.36 |
| Carrarese to score exactly 0 | 20.6% | 22.9% | 22.3% | 1.03× | 4.36 |
Half time 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draw at HT | 44.1% | 41.8% | — | — | 2.39 |
| Carrarese leading at HT | 36.5% | 36.8% | — | — | 2.72 |
| Empoli leading at HT | 19.4% | 18.4% | — | — | 5.43 |
Handicap 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carrarese -1: 2 | 51.7% | 51.5% | — | — | 1.94 |
| Carrarese -1: 1 | 26.0% | 27.0% | — | — | 3.70 |
| Carrarese -1: X | 22.4% | 23.9% | — | — | 4.18 |
Handicap 0:1 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Empoli (0:1) | 51.7% | 53.3% | 57.3% | 0.93× | 1.88 |
| Carrarese (0:1) | 26.0% | 26.2% | 19.6% | 1.34× | 3.81 |
| Draw (0:1) | 22.4% | 24.4% | 23.3% | 1.05× | 4.10 |
Handicap 0:2 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Empoli (0:2) | 74.0% | 73.3% | 80.4% | 0.91× | 1.36 |
| Draw (0:2) | 15.2% | 16.2% | 13.0% | 1.25× | 6.16 |
| Carrarese (0:2) | 10.7% | 11.7% | 6.8% | 1.73× | 8.56 |
Handicap 0:3 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Empoli (0:3) | 89.3% | 88.5% | 93.3% | 0.95× | 1.13 |
| Draw (0:3) | 7.1% | 6.9% | 4.6% | 1.49× | 14.47 |
| Carrarese (0:3) | 3.6% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 1.04× | 42.80 |
Handicap 0:4 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Empoli (0:4) | 96.4% | 98.0% | 97.8% | 1.00× | 1.02 |
| Draw (0:4) | 2.6% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 0.91× | 80.01 |
| Carrarese (0:4) | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.24× | 80.82 |
Handicap 1:0 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carrarese (1:0) | 76.6% | 78.0% | 74.6% | 1.04× | 1.28 |
| Draw (1:0) | 14.2% | 11.8% | 15.6% | 0.76× | 8.46 |
| Empoli (1:0) | 9.2% | 8.6% | 9.9% | 0.87× | 11.60 |
Handicap 2:0 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carrarese (2:0) | 90.8% | 91.6% | 90.1% | 1.02× | 1.09 |
| Draw (2:0) | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 1.01× | 15.19 |
| Empoli (2:0) | 2.6% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 0.77× | 37.16 |
Highest scoring half 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2nd half highest scoring | 45.9% | 48.7% | — | — | 2.06 |
| Halves equal | 27.9% | 26.1% | — | — | 3.83 |
| 1st half highest scoring | 26.3% | 26.1% | — | — | 3.83 |
Home clean sheet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carrarese to concede | 64.6% | 66.2% | 67.0% | 0.99× | 1.51 |
| Carrarese clean sheet | 35.4% | 33.8% | 33.0% | 1.02× | 2.96 |
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carrarese clean sheet in 1st half | 66.0% | 67.3% | — | — | 1.49 |
| Carrarese to concede in 1st half | 34.0% | 32.7% | — | — | 3.05 |
Home goals O/U 8
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carrarese under 3.5 goals | 92.4% | 92.1% | 95.9% | 0.96× | 1.09 |
| Carrarese over 0.5 goals | 79.4% | 76.8% | 77.8% | 0.99× | 1.30 |
| Carrarese under 2.5 goals | 78.9% | 76.8% | 83.9% | 0.92× | 1.30 |
| Carrarese under 1.5 goals | 53.1% | 52.8% | 58.0% | 0.91× | 1.90 |
| Carrarese over 1.5 goals | 46.9% | 47.2% | 42.0% | 1.12× | 2.12 |
| Carrarese over 2.5 goals | 21.1% | 23.2% | 16.1% | 1.44× | 4.31 |
| Carrarese under 0.5 goals | 20.6% | 23.2% | 22.3% | 1.04× | 4.31 |
| Carrarese over 3.5 goals | 7.6% | 7.9% | 4.1% | 1.92× | 12.64 |
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carrarese under 1.5 in 1st half | 85.1% | 87.7% | — | — | 1.14 |
| Carrarese under 0.5 in 1st half | 50.7% | 54.6% | — | — | 1.83 |
| Carrarese over 0.5 in 1st half | 49.3% | 45.4% | — | — | 2.21 |
| Carrarese over 1.5 in 1st half | 14.9% | 12.3% | — | — | 8.12 |
Home no bet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Empoli (home no bet) | 45.3% | 51.2% | 44.2% | 1.16× | 1.95 |
| Draw (home no bet) | 54.7% | 48.8% | 55.8% | 0.88× | 2.05 |
Home Odd/Even 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carrarese even goals | 52.1% | 50.3% | 51.0% | 0.99× | 1.99 |
| Carrarese odd goals | 47.9% | 49.8% | 49.0% | 1.02× | 2.01 |
HT correct score 10
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HT 0-0 | 33.7% | 30.6% | — | — | 3.27 |
| HT 1-0 | 22.5% | 22.6% | — | — | 4.42 |
| HT 0-1 | 13.6% | 11.2% | — | — | 8.92 |
| HT 1-1 | 9.7% | 7.7% | — | — | 12.97 |
| HT 2-0 | 7.7% | 7.7% | — | — | 13.00 |
| Any other HT score | 4.0% | 2.5% | — | — | 39.77 |
| HT 2-1 | 3.2% | 2.5% | — | — | 39.82 |
| HT 0-2 | 2.9% | 2.5% | — | — | 39.84 |
| HT 1-2 | 2.0% | 2.5% | — | — | 39.89 |
| HT 2-2 | 0.7% | 2.5% | — | — | 39.96 |
HT/FT 9
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carrarese at HT / Carrarese at FT | 29.3% | 27.2% | — | — | 3.67 |
| Draw at HT / Draw at FT | 18.0% | 16.8% | — | — | 5.96 |
| Draw at HT / Carrarese at FT | 16.6% | 16.8% | — | — | 5.97 |
| Empoli at HT / Empoli at FT | 12.1% | 12.0% | — | — | 8.36 |
| Draw at HT / Empoli at FT | 9.6% | 6.6% | — | — | 15.16 |
| Carrarese at HT / Draw at FT | 5.5% | 6.6% | — | — | 15.26 |
| Empoli at HT / Draw at FT | 4.8% | 3.4% | — | — | 29.31 |
| Empoli at HT / Carrarese at FT | 2.4% | 3.4% | — | — | 29.41 |
| Carrarese at HT / Empoli at FT | 1.7% | 3.4% | — | — | 29.44 |
Last goal 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carrarese to score last | 55.1% | 56.4% | — | — | 1.77 |
| Empoli to score last | 36.0% | 37.9% | — | — | 2.64 |
| No goal scored | 8.8% | 6.3% | — | — | 15.89 |
Lead at any time 9
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Either team to lead by 1 at any time | 91.2% | 93.7% | — | — | 1.07 |
| Carrarese to lead by 1 at any time | 63.1% | 64.4% | — | — | 1.55 |
| Either team to lead by 2 at any time | 45.7% | 46.1% | — | — | 2.17 |
| Empoli to lead by 1 at any time | 41.3% | 42.1% | — | — | 2.38 |
| Carrarese to lead by 2 at any time | 32.0% | 32.0% | — | — | 3.12 |
| Either team to lead by 3 at any time | 16.5% | 17.6% | — | — | 5.67 |
| Empoli to lead by 2 at any time | 13.9% | 11.4% | — | — | 8.81 |
| Carrarese to lead by 3 at any time | 12.9% | 11.3% | — | — | 8.82 |
| Empoli to lead by 3 at any time | 3.7% | 2.6% | — | — | 38.05 |
Multi goal 15
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-5 goals | 86.1% | 87.9% | 87.3% | 1.01× | 1.14 |
| 1-4 goals | 78.6% | 78.9% | 82.1% | 0.96× | 1.27 |
| 2-6 goals | 73.4% | 73.6% | 72.0% | 1.02× | 1.36 |
| 2-5 goals | 70.1% | 73.6% | 69.6% | 1.06× | 1.36 |
| 1-3 goals | 64.3% | 62.3% | 66.4% | 0.94× | 1.61 |
| 2-4 goals | 62.7% | 62.3% | 64.5% | 0.97× | 1.61 |
| 2-3 goals | 48.4% | 48.0% | 48.8% | 0.99× | 2.08 |
| 3-6 goals | 46.9% | 48.0% | 46.3% | 1.04× | 2.08 |
| 3-5 goals | 43.6% | 43.6% | 43.9% | 0.99× | 2.29 |
| 1-2 goals | 42.5% | 43.6% | 43.5% | 1.00× | 2.29 |
| 3-4 goals | 36.1% | 38.8% | 38.8% | 1.00× | 2.58 |
| 4-6 goals | 25.0% | 30.4% | 23.4% | 1.30× | 3.29 |
| 4-5 goals | 21.8% | 24.7% | 21.0% | 1.18× | 4.05 |
| 5-6 goals | 10.8% | 13.4% | 7.6% | 1.76× | 7.46 |
| 7+ goals | 1.8% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 1.47× | 49.60 |
Never down 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carrarese never behind | 49.9% | 53.8% | — | — | 1.86 |
| Empoli never behind | 28.1% | 31.0% | — | — | 3.22 |
Odd/Even 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odd number of goals | 46.6% | 50.1% | 46.6% | 1.07× | 2.00 |
| Even number of goals | 53.4% | 49.9% | 53.4% | 0.93× | 2.00 |
Odd/Even 1HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Even goals in 1st half | 56.1% | 55.3% | — | — | 1.81 |
| Odd goals in 1st half | 43.9% | 44.7% | — | — | 2.24 |
Odd/Even 2HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Even goals in 2nd half | 53.4% | 51.7% | — | — | 1.93 |
| Odd goals in 2nd half | 46.6% | 48.3% | — | — | 2.07 |
Over/Under 12
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 5.5 goals | 95.0% | 93.0% | 96.3% | 0.97× | 1.08 |
| Over 0.5 goals | 91.2% | 92.9% | 90.9% | 1.02× | 1.08 |
| Under 4.5 goals | 87.5% | 88.8% | 91.1% | 0.97× | 1.13 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.2% | 78.2% | 73.3% | 1.07× | 1.28 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 73.2% | 72.4% | 75.4% | 0.96× | 1.38 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 51.4% | 53.5% | 52.5% | 1.02× | 1.87 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.6% | 46.5% | 47.5% | 0.98× | 2.15 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26.8% | 27.6% | 24.6% | 1.12× | 3.63 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 24.8% | 21.8% | 26.8% | 0.82× | 4.59 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 12.5% | 11.2% | 8.9% | 1.27× | 8.90 |
| Under 0.5 goals | 8.8% | 7.1% | 9.1% | 0.77× | 14.15 |
| Over 5.5 goals | 5.0% | 7.0% | 3.8% | 1.87× | 14.23 |
Over/Under (whole line) 10
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 6 (void on exactly 6) | 98.2% | 97.2% | 98.6% | 0.99× | 1.03 |
| Under 5 (void on exactly 5) | 94.5% | 92.8% | 96.0% | 0.97× | 1.08 |
| Under 4 (void on exactly 4) | 85.4% | 88.0% | 89.5% | 0.98× | 1.14 |
| Over 2 (void on exactly 2) | 66.2% | 68.0% | 64.0% | 1.06× | 1.47 |
| Under 3 (void on exactly 3) | 65.7% | 68.0% | 68.1% | 1.00× | 1.47 |
| Over 3 (void on exactly 3) | 34.3% | 32.0% | 31.9% | 1.00× | 3.12 |
| Under 2 (void on exactly 2) | 33.8% | 32.0% | 36.0% | 0.89× | 3.12 |
| Over 4 (void on exactly 4) | 14.6% | 12.0% | 10.5% | 1.14× | 8.35 |
| Over 5 (void on exactly 5) | 5.5% | 7.2% | 4.0% | 1.83× | 13.83 |
| Over 6 (void on exactly 6) | 1.8% | 2.8% | 1.4% | 1.96× | 36.17 |
Over/Under 1HT 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 2.5 in 1st half | 90.1% | 92.1% | — | — | 1.09 |
| Under 1.5 in 1st half | 69.8% | 68.6% | — | — | 1.46 |
| Over 0.5 in 1st half | 66.3% | 68.5% | — | — | 1.46 |
| Under 0.5 in 1st half | 33.7% | 31.5% | — | — | 3.18 |
| Over 1.5 in 1st half | 30.2% | 31.4% | — | — | 3.19 |
| Over 2.5 in 1st half | 9.9% | 7.9% | — | — | 12.72 |
Over/Under 2HT 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 2.5 in 2nd half | 80.3% | 82.0% | — | — | 1.22 |
| Over 0.5 in 2nd half | 77.7% | 80.3% | — | — | 1.25 |
| Over 1.5 in 2nd half | 45.6% | 51.8% | — | — | 1.93 |
| Under 1.5 in 2nd half | 54.4% | 48.2% | — | — | 2.07 |
| Under 0.5 in 2nd half | 22.3% | 19.7% | — | — | 5.07 |
| Over 2.5 in 2nd half | 19.7% | 18.0% | — | — | 5.56 |
Score both halves 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Empoli not to score in both halves | 84.2% | 81.6% | — | — | 1.23 |
| Carrarese not to score in both halves | 70.7% | 70.3% | — | — | 1.42 |
| Carrarese to score in both halves | 29.3% | 29.7% | — | — | 3.37 |
| Empoli to score in both halves | 15.8% | 18.4% | — | — | 5.43 |
Teams to score 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams score | 52.9% | 54.7% | 53.9% | 1.02× | 1.83 |
| Only Carrarese scores | 26.5% | 25.6% | 24.0% | 1.07× | 3.90 |
| Only Empoli scores | 11.8% | 10.8% | 13.3% | 0.81× | 9.27 |
| Neither team scores | 8.8% | 6.7% | 9.1% | 0.73× | 14.98 |
Total goals 7
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exactly 2 goals | 26.5% | 24.7% | 25.9% | 0.96× | 4.05 |
| Exactly 3 goals | 21.8% | 21.5% | 23.0% | 0.94× | 4.64 |
| Exactly 1 goals | 16.0% | 18.5% | 17.8% | 1.04× | 5.39 |
| Exactly 4 goals | 14.3% | 12.4% | 15.9% | 0.78× | 8.08 |
| Exactly 0 goals | 8.8% | 7.6% | 9.1% | 0.84× | 13.12 |
| Exactly 5 goals | 7.5% | 7.6% | 5.3% | 1.45× | 13.13 |
| 6 or more goals | 5.0% | 7.6% | 3.8% | 2.03× | 13.17 |
Total goals 2nd half 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2+ goals in 2nd half | 45.6% | 50.8% | — | — | 1.97 |
| 1 goal in 2nd half | 32.1% | 33.2% | — | — | 3.02 |
| No goals in 2nd half | 22.3% | 18.5% | — | — | 5.40 |
Win both halves 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Empoli not to win both halves | 95.3% | 96.6% | — | — | 1.04 |
| Carrarese not to win both halves | 85.2% | 87.5% | — | — | 1.14 |
| Carrarese to win both halves | 14.8% | 12.5% | — | — | 7.97 |
| Empoli to win both halves | 4.7% | 3.4% | — | — | 29.66 |
Win either half 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Empoli to win neither half | 61.8% | 63.6% | — | — | 1.57 |
| Carrarese to win either half | 61.4% | 63.6% | — | — | 1.57 |
| Carrarese to win neither half | 38.6% | 36.4% | — | — | 2.75 |
| Empoli to win either half | 38.2% | 36.4% | — | — | 2.75 |
Win to nil 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Empoli not to win to nil | 88.2% | 88.3% | 86.8% | 1.02× | 1.13 |
| Carrarese not to win to nil | 73.5% | 74.4% | 76.0% | 0.98× | 1.35 |
| Carrarese to win to nil | 26.5% | 25.6% | 24.0% | 1.07× | 3.90 |
| Empoli to win to nil | 11.8% | 11.7% | 13.3% | 0.88× | 8.55 |
Winning margin 7
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draw | 28.3% | 28.0% | 32.0% | 0.88× | 3.57 |
| Carrarese by 1 | 22.4% | 23.7% | 23.3% | 1.02× | 4.21 |
| Carrarese by 2 | 15.2% | 17.0% | 13.0% | 1.30× | 5.90 |
| Empoli by 1 | 14.2% | 11.9% | 15.6% | 0.76× | 8.42 |
| Carrarese by 3+ | 10.7% | 11.8% | 6.8% | 1.75× | 8.45 |
| Empoli by 2 | 6.6% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 1.09× | 14.12 |
| Empoli by 3+ | 2.6% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 0.81× | 35.40 |