Caspiy-M Aktau v Astana-M — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Thursday 8 October 2026 · KAZ-First League · 2627
KAZ-First League
results-only Prediction generated
AI prediction
ai-blend v1.0 dailyRaw model output; no calibration record for this fixture's bands yet.
Top 5 scorelines
- 1-1 8.6%
- 2-1 8.4%
- 1-2 8.1%
- 1-0 7.3%
- 0-1 7.1%
Goals
| Over 2.5 | 64.8% | Under 2.5 | 35.2% |
| BTTS yes | 64.6% | BTTS no | 35.4% |
| Caspiy-M Aktau 1+ | 81.8% | Caspiy-M Aktau 2+ | 50.8% |
| Astana-M 1+ | 80.5% | Astana-M 2+ | 48.6% |
Expected goals 1.71 – 1.63. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.
Footing
Positive factors
- Caspiy-M Aktau have created 1.35 xG a match over their last five while Astana-M have allowed 1.35.
- At home Caspiy-M Aktau average 1.35 xG a match.
Risk factors
- Data quality is 20/100, so this price rests on less than the model would like.
- Caspiy-M Aktau have only 0 matches on record.
- Astana-M have only 0 matches on record.
Why the model thinks this
The price
Caspiy-M Aktau have an estimated 41.4% win probability, against 38.4% for Astana-M and 20.3% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.71 for Caspiy-M Aktau and 1.63 for Astana-M.
Why Caspiy-M Aktau
Caspiy-M Aktau have created 1.35 xG a match over their last five while Astana-M have allowed 1.35. At home Caspiy-M Aktau average 1.35 xG a match.
Why the draw is live
The draw sits at 20.3%. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.71 to 1.63.
Why Astana-M can win
Astana-M have created 1.35 xG a match over their last five while Caspiy-M Aktau have allowed 1.35. Away from home Astana-M average 1.35 xG a match.
Key players
No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.
Availability
No lineup on record for Caspiy-M Aktau, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Astana-M, so availability is unknown.
The matchup, as far as the data reaches
Caspiy-M Aktau: 50% possession, 12.0 shots a match, 12.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Astana-M: 50% possession, 12.0 shots a match, 12.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.
Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-10 15:23 · team_stats 2026-09-09 06:03 · availability 2026-09-10 15:32 · prediction 2026-09-09 09:54 ·
Caspiy-M Aktau are the model's most likely outcome at 41.4%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 8.6%. Confidence 22/100, data quality 20/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.
Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.
Was this pick made in advance?
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend | 1.71–1.63 | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| dc-xg | 1.88–1.90 | 1-2 8% | 73% | 71% |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.