Castellón v Sporting Gijón — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 25 October 2026 · ESP-La Liga 2 · 2627

La Liga results-only Prediction generated 18 Sep 2026, 10:37 UTC

Castellón

18:00 UTC

Sporting Gijón

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 24 Oct, 10:57 · 31h before kick-off

Castellón win

51.1%

model 51.9%

Draw

22.2%

model 22.7%

Sporting Gijón win

26.7%

model 25.4%

512227

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (466 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 10.6%
2-1 9.7%
1-0 9.4%
2-0 8.2%
1-2 6.4%

Goals

Over 2.5	57.1%	Under 2.5	42.9%
BTTS yes	57.6%	BTTS no	42.4%
Castellón 1+	83.3%	Castellón 2+	53.5%
Sporting Gijón 1+	69.4%	Sporting Gijón 2+	33.2%

Expected goals 1.79 – 1.18. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

56/100

Data quality

75/100

Model agreement

94%

★ Best pick

2-6 goals

Multi goal · usually 68%

78.8% fair odds 1.27

moderate signal · 2624 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Castellón not to win both halves

Win both halves

83.3% fair odds 1.20

moderate signal · 588 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Castellón carry the stronger rating, 1616 Elo against 1543.
Form is good: 2.60 points a match from the last five.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Castellón have an estimated 51.1% win probability, against 26.7% for Sporting Gijón and 22.2% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.79 for Castellón and 1.18 for Sporting Gijón.

Why Castellón

Castellón carry the stronger rating, 1616 Elo against 1543. Form is good: 2.60 points a match from the last five.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 22.2%. Draws run at 26% in this competition.

Why Sporting Gijón can win

Form is good: 2.60 points a match from the last five.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Castellón, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Sporting Gijón, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Castellón: 60% possession, 14.2 shots a match, 9.2 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Sporting Gijón: 45% possession, 8.8 shots a match, 12.6 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-24 13:59 · team_stats 2026-10-24 06:04 · availability 2026-10-24 14:57 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Castellón are the model's most likely outcome at 51.1%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 10.6%. Confidence 56/100, data quality 75/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	522325	1.79–1.18	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	462331	1.75–1.39	1-1 10%	61%	62%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Castellón to win	46.4%	47.4%	45.5%	1.04×	2.11
Sporting Gijón to win	30.8%	30.4%	28.1%	1.08×	3.29
Draw	22.8%	24.4%	26.5%	0.92×	4.09

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Castellón & both teams score	25.5%	25.2%	22.0%	1.14×	3.97
Castellón & not both score	20.9%	21.8%	23.6%	0.92×	4.59
Draw & both teams score	18.7%	18.0%	17.5%	1.03×	5.56
Sporting Gijón & both teams score	17.6%	18.0%	14.8%	1.22×	5.56
Sporting Gijón & not both score	13.3%	13.3%	13.4%	0.99×	7.54
Draw & not both score	4.1%	4.9%	9.1%	0.53×	20.58

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Castellón & over 1.5	38.5%	34.9%	32.6%	1.07×	2.87
Castellón & over 2.5	31.9%	30.8%	26.3%	1.17×	3.25
Castellón & under 3.5	27.6%	26.1%	32.2%	0.81×	3.84
Sporting Gijón & over 1.5	24.6%	21.6%	19.5%	1.11×	4.63
Sporting Gijón & over 2.5	20.4%	21.6%	16.7%	1.30×	4.63
Sporting Gijón & under 3.5	19.7%	18.0%	19.6%	0.92×	5.56
Castellón & over 3.5	18.8%	18.0%	13.4%	1.34×	5.56
Draw & over 1.5	18.7%	18.0%	17.5%	1.03×	5.56
Castellón & under 2.5	14.5%	12.8%	19.3%	0.67×	7.79
Draw & under 2.5	14.4%	12.8%	20.2%	0.63×	7.79
Draw & under 3.5	14.4%	12.8%	20.2%	0.63×	7.79
Sporting Gijón & under 2.5	10.4%	12.8%	11.5%	1.11×	7.79
Sporting Gijón & over 3.5	11.2%	12.8%	8.6%	1.49×	7.79
Draw & over 2.5	8.4%	7.9%	6.4%	1.24×	12.63
Draw & over 3.5	8.4%	7.9%	6.4%	1.24×	12.63
Castellón & under 1.5	7.8%	7.9%	13.0%	0.61×	12.63
Sporting Gijón & under 1.5	6.3%	7.9%	8.7%	0.91×	12.63
Draw & under 1.5	4.1%	4.8%	9.1%	0.53×	20.81

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Castellón (1UP)	63.4%	62.9%	—	—	1.59
Sporting Gijón (1UP)	50.3%	52.5%	—	—	1.91

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Castellón (2UP)	46.4%	50.0%	—	—	2.00
Sporting Gijón (2UP)	30.8%	30.4%	—	—	3.29

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Castellón to win 2nd half	38.3%	36.0%	—	—	2.78
2nd half drawn	32.2%	34.3%	—	—	2.91
Sporting Gijón to win 2nd half	29.4%	25.9%	—	—	3.86

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting Gijón under 1.5 in 2nd half	79.7%	79.1%	—	—	1.26
Sporting Gijón over 0.5 in 2nd half	56.5%	54.5%	—	—	1.84
Sporting Gijón under 0.5 in 2nd half	43.5%	45.5%	—	—	2.20
Sporting Gijón over 1.5 in 2nd half	20.3%	20.9%	—	—	4.79

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Castellón under 1.5 in 2nd half	73.7%	74.1%	—	—	1.35
Castellón over 0.5 in 2nd half	63.1%	63.3%	—	—	1.58
Castellón under 0.5 in 2nd half	36.9%	36.7%	—	—	2.73
Castellón over 1.5 in 2nd half	26.3%	25.9%	—	—	3.86

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting Gijón (+2.5)	89.2%	88.5%	92.3%	0.96×	1.13
Sporting Gijón (+1.5)	75.3%	78.5%	80.4%	0.98×	1.27
Castellón (+0.5)	69.2%	68.7%	71.9%	0.96×	1.46
Sporting Gijón (+0.5)	53.6%	52.4%	54.5%	0.96×	1.91
Castellón (-0.5)	46.4%	47.6%	45.5%	1.05×	2.10
Sporting Gijón (-0.5)	30.8%	31.3%	28.1%	1.11×	3.19
Castellón (-1.5)	24.7%	21.5%	19.6%	1.10×	4.65
Castellón (-2.5)	10.8%	11.5%	7.7%	1.51×	8.68

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting Gijón to concede	82.6%	81.5%	77.6%	1.05×	1.23
Sporting Gijón clean sheet	17.4%	18.5%	22.4%	0.82×	5.41

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting Gijón to concede in 1st half	52.9%	50.7%	—	—	1.97
Sporting Gijón clean sheet in 1st half	47.1%	49.3%	—	—	2.03

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting Gijón to concede in 2nd half	63.1%	61.9%	—	—	1.62
Sporting Gijón clean sheet in 2nd half	36.9%	38.1%	—	—	2.62

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting Gijón under 6.5 corners	92.5%	89.9%	—	—	1.11
Sporting Gijón under 5.5 corners	85.7%	85.2%	—	—	1.17
Sporting Gijón under 4.5 corners	74.7%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
Sporting Gijón over 2.5 corners	61.0%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Sporting Gijón under 3.5 corners	58.7%	57.2%	—	—	1.75
Sporting Gijón over 3.5 corners	41.3%	42.8%	—	—	2.34
Sporting Gijón under 2.5 corners	39.0%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Sporting Gijón over 4.5 corners	25.3%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
Sporting Gijón over 5.5 corners	14.3%	14.8%	—	—	6.77
Sporting Gijón over 6.5 corners	7.5%	10.1%	—	—	9.90

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting Gijón under 3.5 goals	94.8%	92.4%	97.0%	0.95×	1.08
Sporting Gijón under 2.5 goals	83.6%	81.5%	89.1%	0.91×	1.23
Sporting Gijón over 0.5 goals	75.0%	76.2%	67.4%	1.13×	1.31
Sporting Gijón under 1.5 goals	59.6%	59.4%	69.4%	0.86×	1.68
Sporting Gijón over 1.5 goals	40.4%	40.6%	30.6%	1.33×	2.47
Sporting Gijón under 0.5 goals	25.0%	23.8%	32.6%	0.73×	4.21
Sporting Gijón over 2.5 goals	16.4%	18.5%	10.9%	1.70×	5.40
Sporting Gijón over 3.5 goals	5.2%	7.6%	3.0%	2.52×	13.08

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting Gijón under 1.5 in 1st half	89.3%	89.3%	—	—	1.12
Sporting Gijón under 0.5 in 1st half	57.4%	61.9%	—	—	1.61
Sporting Gijón over 0.5 in 1st half	42.6%	38.1%	—	—	2.63
Sporting Gijón over 1.5 in 1st half	10.7%	10.7%	—	—	9.31

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting Gijón scores more in 2nd half	39.4%	37.4%	—	—	2.67
Sporting Gijón scores equally in both	37.9%	37.4%	—	—	2.68
Sporting Gijón scores more in 1st half	22.7%	22.1%	—	—	4.52

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Castellón (away no bet)	67.0%	66.4%	63.2%	1.05×	1.51
Draw (away no bet)	33.0%	33.6%	36.8%	0.91×	2.98

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting Gijón even goals	53.1%	52.6%	54.6%	0.96×	1.90
Sporting Gijón odd goals	46.9%	47.4%	45.4%	1.04×	2.11

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	79.5%	81.3%	—	—	1.23
Both halves over 1.5 goals	20.5%	18.7%	—	—	5.35

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	71.5%	67.4%	—	—	1.49
Both halves under 1.5 goals	28.5%	32.6%	—	—	3.06

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	63.0%	60.1%	—	—	1.67
Castellón to score 2+ in a row	42.2%	38.7%	—	—	2.59
Sporting Gijón to score 2+ in a row	29.8%	25.2%	—	—	3.96
Either team to score 3+ in a row	24.6%	19.7%	—	—	5.09
Castellón to score 3+ in a row	16.2%	16.2%	—	—	6.17
Sporting Gijón to score 3+ in a row	8.9%	5.6%	—	—	17.85

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Castellón corners (+3.5)	97.5%	95.7%	—	—	1.04
Castellón corners (+2.5)	95.4%	95.7%	—	—	1.05
Castellón corners (+1.5)	91.9%	89.6%	—	—	1.12
Castellón corners (-1.5)	70.9%	70.7%	—	—	1.41
Castellón corners (-2.5)	60.9%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Castellón corners (-3.5)	50.4%	52.4%	—	—	1.91
Sporting Gijón corners (+3.5)	49.6%	47.6%	—	—	2.10
Sporting Gijón corners (+2.5)	39.1%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Sporting Gijón corners (+1.5)	29.1%	29.3%	—	—	3.42
Sporting Gijón corners (-1.5)	8.1%	10.4%	—	—	9.59
Sporting Gijón corners (-2.5)	4.6%	4.3%	—	—	23.41
Sporting Gijón corners (-3.5)	2.5%	4.3%	—	—	23.47

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
12+ corners	35.7%	34.0%	—	—	2.94
0-8 corners	34.3%	33.2%	—	—	3.01
9-11 corners	30.0%	31.2%	—	—	3.21

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 7.5 corners	75.4%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Under 12.5 corners	72.6%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Over 8.5 corners	65.7%	67.8%	—	—	1.48
Under 11.5 corners	64.3%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Over 9.5 corners	55.4%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Under 10.5 corners	54.8%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Over 10.5 corners	45.2%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Under 9.5 corners	44.6%	42.1%	—	—	2.37
Over 11.5 corners	35.7%	36.8%	—	—	2.72
Under 8.5 corners	34.3%	32.2%	—	—	3.11
Over 12.5 corners	27.4%	27.5%	—	—	3.64
Under 7.5 corners	24.6%	23.4%	—	—	4.27

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.1%	—	—	2.00
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.9%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	10.3%	11.5%	11.2%	1.02×	8.72
2-1	9.2%	7.4%	10.1%	0.74×	13.50
1-0	7.8%	7.4%	13.0%	0.57×	13.51
1-2	7.3%	7.4%	7.0%	1.05×	13.51
2-0	6.6%	7.4%	6.4%	1.16×	13.51
0-1	6.3%	7.4%	8.7%	0.85×	13.51
2-2	6.4%	7.4%	5.7%	1.31×	13.51
3-1	5.4%	7.4%	4.6%	1.61×	13.51
0-0	4.1%	1.7%	9.1%	0.19×	58.30
0-2	4.2%	1.7%	2.9%	0.58×	58.30
0-3	1.9%	1.7%	1.3%	1.36×	58.31
0-4	0.7%	1.7%	0.7%	2.34×	58.32
1-3	3.4%	1.7%	3.7%	0.47×	58.30
1-4	1.2%	1.7%	0.8%	2.05×	58.31
2-3	3.0%	1.7%	2.3%	0.74×	58.30
2-4	1.0%	1.7%	0.7%	2.34×	58.31
3-0	3.9%	1.7%	3.0%	0.56×	58.30
3-2	3.7%	1.7%	2.8%	0.61×	58.30
3-3	1.7%	1.7%	0.7%	2.34×	58.31
3-4	0.6%	1.7%	0.2%	8.18×	58.32
4-0	1.7%	1.7%	1.2%	1.49×	58.31
4-1	2.4%	1.7%	1.9%	0.91×	58.31
4-2	1.6%	1.7%	1.2%	1.49×	58.31
4-3	0.8%	1.7%	0.3%	5.45×	58.31
4-4	0.3%	1.7%	0.2%	8.18×	58.32
Any other score	4.6%	1.7%	2.7%	0.63×	58.29

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Castellón (2nd half DNB)	56.6%	59.7%	—	—	1.68
Sporting Gijón (2nd half DNB)	43.4%	40.3%	—	—	2.48

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Castellón leading at HT (DNB)	60.0%	65.4%	—	—	1.53
Sporting Gijón leading at HT (DNB)	40.0%	34.6%	—	—	2.89

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Castellón or Sporting Gijón (12)	77.2%	75.6%	73.5%	1.03×	1.32
Castellón or draw (1X)	69.2%	69.6%	71.9%	0.97×	1.44
Sporting Gijón or draw (X2)	53.6%	52.6%	54.5%	0.97×	1.90

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Castellón or draw at HT	75.8%	79.2%	—	—	1.26
Sporting Gijón or draw at HT	63.7%	61.4%	—	—	1.63
Castellón or Sporting Gijón at HT	60.5%	61.3%	—	—	1.63

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Castellón or draw (1UP)	69.2%	76.4%	—	—	1.31
Sporting Gijón or draw (1UP)	53.6%	58.8%	—	—	1.70

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Castellón or draw in 2nd half	70.6%	74.1%	—	—	1.35
Castellón or Sporting Gijón in 2nd half	67.8%	65.7%	—	—	1.52
Sporting Gijón or draw in 2nd half	61.7%	64.0%	—	—	1.56

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	59.3%	58.5%	—	—	1.71
Neither half drawn	40.7%	41.5%	—	—	2.41

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Castellón (DNB)	60.1%	62.7%	61.8%	1.01×	1.60
Sporting Gijón (DNB)	39.9%	37.4%	38.2%	0.98×	2.68

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Castellón to score first	53.5%	53.4%	—	—	1.87
Sporting Gijón to score first	42.4%	41.7%	—	—	2.40
No goal scored	4.1%	4.3%	—	—	23.29

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	61.8%	56.6%	54.1%	1.05×	1.77
Not both teams to score	38.2%	43.4%	45.9%	0.94×	2.31

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	51.5%	47.2%	43.0%	1.10×	2.12
Not both score & under 2.5	29.0%	33.3%	39.7%	0.84×	3.00
Both score & under 2.5	10.3%	12.4%	11.2%	1.10×	8.09
Not both score & over 2.5	9.2%	8.3%	6.3%	1.32×	12.06

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	78.9%	79.7%	85.6%	0.93×	1.26
Both teams to score 2+	21.1%	20.3%	14.4%	1.41×	4.93

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	64.4%	65.7%	—	—	1.52
Both teams to score in 2nd half	35.6%	34.3%	—	—	2.91

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	50.0%	53.1%	—	—	1.88
Both score 2nd half only	27.6%	27.2%	—	—	3.68
Both score 1st half only	14.5%	10.8%	—	—	9.28
Both score in both halves	8.0%	6.8%	—	—	14.66

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	77.5%	81.0%	—	—	1.23
Both teams to score by HT	22.5%	19.0%	—	—	5.27

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	61.1%	59.6%	—	—	1.68
A half without a goal	38.9%	40.4%	—	—	2.48

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	43.5%	42.1%	41.3%	1.02×	2.37
4-6 goals	34.3%	30.7%	26.7%	1.15×	3.25
0-1 goals	18.2%	20.2%	30.6%	0.66×	4.94
7+ goals	4.1%	1.8%	1.6%	1.18×	54.09

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting Gijón to score exactly 1	34.6%	33.8%	36.9%	0.92×	2.95
Sporting Gijón to score exactly 0	25.0%	22.3%	32.6%	0.68×	4.48
Sporting Gijón to score exactly 2	24.0%	22.3%	19.8%	1.13×	4.48
Sporting Gijón to score 3+	16.4%	19.6%	10.9%	1.79×	5.11

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Castellón to score exactly 1	30.4%	32.5%	35.6%	0.91×	3.07
Castellón to score exactly 2	26.6%	26.5%	24.9%	1.06×	3.77
Castellón to score 3+	25.6%	26.5%	17.2%	1.54×	3.77
Castellón to score exactly 0	17.4%	18.8%	22.4%	0.84×	5.33

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	39.5%	38.7%	—	—	2.59
Castellón leading at HT	36.3%	38.6%	—	—	2.59
Sporting Gijón leading at HT	24.2%	20.8%	—	—	4.81

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Castellón -1: 2	53.6%	52.1%	—	—	1.92
Castellón -1: 1	24.7%	23.5%	—	—	4.25
Castellón -1: X	21.6%	23.5%	—	—	4.26

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting Gijón (0:1)	53.6%	51.3%	54.5%	0.94×	1.95
Castellón (0:1)	24.7%	24.2%	19.6%	1.24×	4.13
Draw (0:1)	21.6%	24.2%	26.0%	0.93×	4.13

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting Gijón (0:2)	75.3%	79.3%	80.4%	0.99×	1.26
Draw (0:2)	13.9%	11.0%	12.1%	0.91×	9.09
Castellón (0:2)	10.8%	11.0%	7.7%	1.44×	9.10

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting Gijón (0:3)	89.2%	90.7%	92.3%	0.98×	1.10
Draw (0:3)	6.9%	5.8%	5.3%	1.09×	17.22
Castellón (0:3)	3.9%	2.4%	2.4%	0.99×	42.04

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting Gijón (0:4)	96.1%	98.1%	97.6%	1.01×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	2.7%	1.2%	2.1%	0.58×	81.80
Castellón (0:4)	1.2%	1.2%	0.4%	2.91×	81.97

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Castellón (1:0)	69.2%	70.1%	71.9%	0.98×	1.43
Draw (1:0)	17.2%	17.1%	17.9%	0.95×	5.85
Sporting Gijón (1:0)	13.6%	12.7%	10.3%	1.24×	7.87

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Castellón (2:0)	86.4%	88.5%	89.7%	0.99×	1.13
Draw (2:0)	8.8%	6.4%	7.1%	0.90×	15.67
Sporting Gijón (2:0)	4.9%	2.3%	3.2%	0.71×	43.53

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	49.9%	48.8%	—	—	2.05
1st half highest scoring	27.6%	26.2%	—	—	3.81
Halves equal	22.5%	24.4%	—	—	4.09

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Castellón to concede	75.0%	76.0%	67.4%	1.13×	1.32
Castellón clean sheet	25.0%	24.0%	32.6%	0.74×	4.17

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Castellón clean sheet in 1st half	57.4%	61.9%	—	—	1.61
Castellón to concede in 1st half	42.6%	38.1%	—	—	2.63

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Castellón to concede in 2nd half	56.5%	54.9%	—	—	1.82
Castellón clean sheet in 2nd half	43.5%	45.1%	—	—	2.22

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Castellón over 2.5 corners	93.6%	89.2%	—	—	1.12
Castellón over 3.5 corners	86.3%	86.2%	—	—	1.16
Castellón over 4.5 corners	76.3%	76.5%	—	—	1.31
Castellón over 5.5 corners	64.5%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
Castellón over 6.5 corners	52.2%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
Castellón under 6.5 corners	47.8%	47.4%	—	—	2.11
Castellón under 5.5 corners	35.5%	37.7%	—	—	2.65
Castellón under 4.5 corners	23.7%	23.5%	—	—	4.26
Castellón under 3.5 corners	13.7%	13.8%	—	—	7.26
Castellón under 2.5 corners	6.4%	10.8%	—	—	9.29

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Castellón under 3.5 goals	89.9%	87.3%	93.7%	0.93×	1.15
Castellón over 0.5 goals	82.6%	82.2%	77.6%	1.06×	1.22
Castellón under 2.5 goals	74.4%	74.3%	82.8%	0.90×	1.35
Castellón over 1.5 goals	52.2%	53.2%	42.0%	1.27×	1.88
Castellón under 1.5 goals	47.8%	46.8%	58.0%	0.81×	2.14
Castellón over 2.5 goals	25.6%	25.7%	17.2%	1.50×	3.89
Castellón under 0.5 goals	17.4%	17.8%	22.4%	0.79×	5.62
Castellón over 3.5 goals	10.1%	12.7%	6.3%	2.02×	7.86

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Castellón under 1.5 in 1st half	82.6%	84.0%	—	—	1.19
Castellón over 0.5 in 1st half	52.9%	50.5%	—	—	1.98
Castellón under 0.5 in 1st half	47.1%	49.5%	—	—	2.02
Castellón over 1.5 in 1st half	17.4%	16.0%	—	—	6.23

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Castellón scores more in 2nd half	40.2%	42.2%	—	—	2.37
Castellón scores equally in both	33.1%	33.2%	—	—	3.01
Castellón scores more in 1st half	26.7%	27.7%	—	—	3.61

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting Gijón (home no bet)	57.5%	56.4%	51.4%	1.10×	1.77
Draw (home no bet)	42.5%	43.6%	48.6%	0.90×	2.30

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Castellón even goals	51.5%	50.7%	51.7%	0.98×	1.97
Castellón odd goals	48.5%	49.3%	48.3%	1.02×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	27.0%	28.2%	—	—	3.54
HT 1-0	20.4%	24.3%	—	—	4.11
HT 0-1	15.1%	18.6%	—	—	5.38
HT 1-1	11.3%	11.0%	—	—	9.12
HT 2-0	7.7%	6.9%	—	—	14.47
Any other HT score	5.9%	6.9%	—	—	14.49
HT 0-2	4.2%	2.4%	—	—	42.02
HT 2-1	4.3%	2.4%	—	—	42.02
HT 1-2	3.1%	2.4%	—	—	42.09
HT 2-2	1.2%	2.4%	—	—	42.22

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Castellón at HT / Castellón at FT	28.2%	27.4%	—	—	3.65
Sporting Gijón at HT / Sporting Gijón at FT	16.5%	16.7%	—	—	5.98
Draw at HT / Castellón at FT	15.3%	16.7%	—	—	5.98
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	12.5%	12.7%	—	—	7.90
Draw at HT / Sporting Gijón at FT	11.8%	12.6%	—	—	7.91
Castellón at HT / Draw at FT	5.5%	6.0%	—	—	16.66
Sporting Gijón at HT / Draw at FT	4.8%	3.5%	—	—	28.61
Sporting Gijón at HT / Castellón at FT	2.9%	3.5%	—	—	28.68
Castellón at HT / Sporting Gijón at FT	2.6%	3.5%	—	—	28.69

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Castellón to score last	53.5%	52.2%	—	—	1.92
Sporting Gijón to score last	42.4%	40.0%	—	—	2.50
No goal scored	4.1%	4.3%	—	—	23.29

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	95.9%	95.6%	—	—	1.05
Castellón to lead by 1 at any time	63.4%	61.4%	—	—	1.63
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	52.5%	50.8%	—	—	1.97
Sporting Gijón to lead by 1 at any time	50.3%	50.8%	—	—	1.97
Castellón to lead by 2 at any time	32.4%	29.8%	—	—	3.35
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	20.4%	19.6%	—	—	5.10
Sporting Gijón to lead by 2 at any time	20.4%	19.6%	—	—	5.10
Castellón to lead by 3 at any time	13.6%	10.5%	—	—	9.54
Sporting Gijón to lead by 3 at any time	6.8%	6.7%	—	—	14.94

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Castellón most corners	79.7%	74.4%	—	—	1.34
Sporting Gijón most corners	13.3%	10.4%	—	—	9.58
Corners level	7.0%	8.3%	—	—	11.98

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	86.1%	87.4%	85.8%	1.02×	1.14
2-6 goals	77.7%	78.7%	67.9%	1.16×	1.27
1-4 goals	75.1%	78.7%	78.1%	1.01×	1.27
2-5 goals	72.0%	72.4%	64.4%	1.12×	1.38
2-4 goals	61.0%	63.3%	56.6%	1.12×	1.58
1-3 goals	57.5%	59.1%	62.8%	0.94×	1.69
3-6 goals	56.6%	59.1%	47.7%	1.24×	1.69
3-5 goals	50.9%	53.2%	44.1%	1.20×	1.88
2-3 goals	43.5%	43.6%	41.3%	1.06×	2.29
3-4 goals	39.9%	39.2%	36.4%	1.08×	2.55
1-2 goals	35.2%	39.2%	41.8%	0.94×	2.55
4-6 goals	34.3%	35.2%	26.7%	1.32×	2.84
4-5 goals	28.5%	30.2%	23.2%	1.31×	3.31
5-6 goals	16.8%	18.8%	11.4%	1.65×	5.31
7+ goals	4.1%	2.6%	1.6%	1.63×	39.04

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Castellón never behind	45.6%	56.6%	—	—	1.77
Sporting Gijón never behind	32.5%	36.2%	—	—	2.76

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even number of goals	49.6%	50.9%	48.5%	1.05×	1.96
Odd number of goals	50.4%	49.1%	51.5%	0.95×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	53.6%	51.6%	—	—	1.94
Odd goals in 1st half	46.4%	48.4%	—	—	2.07

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	51.1%	51.9%	—	—	1.93
Odd goals in 2nd half	48.9%	48.1%	—	—	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	95.9%	95.4%	90.9%	1.05×	1.05
Under 5.5 goals	90.2%	92.3%	94.9%	0.97×	1.08
Over 1.5 goals	81.8%	82.3%	69.4%	1.19×	1.22
Under 4.5 goals	79.2%	77.3%	87.1%	0.89×	1.29
Under 3.5 goals	61.6%	61.7%	71.8%	0.86×	1.62
Over 2.5 goals	60.7%	61.7%	49.2%	1.26×	1.62
Under 2.5 goals	39.3%	38.3%	50.8%	0.75×	2.61
Over 3.5 goals	38.4%	38.3%	28.2%	1.36×	2.61
Over 4.5 goals	20.8%	22.7%	12.9%	1.76×	4.41
Under 1.5 goals	18.2%	17.7%	30.6%	0.58×	5.65
Over 5.5 goals	9.8%	7.7%	5.1%	1.51×	12.93
Under 0.5 goals	4.1%	4.6%	9.1%	0.50×	21.86

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	95.7%	97.2%	98.4%	0.99×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	88.9%	86.7%	94.4%	0.92×	1.15
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	76.9%	75.9%	61.6%	1.23×	1.32
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	74.7%	72.4%	84.8%	0.85×	1.38
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	50.6%	51.9%	64.3%	0.81×	1.93
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	49.4%	48.1%	35.7%	1.35×	2.08
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	25.3%	27.6%	15.2%	1.81×	3.63
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	23.1%	24.1%	38.4%	0.63×	4.14
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	11.1%	13.3%	5.6%	2.38×	7.54
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	4.3%	2.8%	1.6%	1.73×	35.53

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	85.5%	89.1%	—	—	1.12
Over 0.5 in 1st half	73.0%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
Under 1.5 in 1st half	62.5%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Over 1.5 in 1st half	37.5%	36.8%	—	—	2.72
Under 0.5 in 1st half	27.0%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
Over 2.5 in 1st half	14.5%	10.9%	—	—	9.18

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	84.0%	83.3%	—	—	1.20
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	72.3%	77.6%	—	—	1.29
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	54.5%	53.1%	—	—	1.88
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	45.5%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	27.7%	22.4%	—	—	4.46
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	16.0%	16.7%	—	—	5.98

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting Gijón not to score in both halves	75.9%	78.4%	—	—	1.28
Castellón not to score in both halves	66.6%	69.9%	—	—	1.43
Castellón to score in both halves	33.4%	30.1%	—	—	3.32
Sporting Gijón to score in both halves	24.1%	21.6%	—	—	4.64

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	61.8%	60.3%	54.1%	1.12×	1.66
Only Castellón scores	20.9%	22.2%	23.6%	0.94×	4.50
Only Sporting Gijón scores	13.3%	11.0%	13.4%	0.82×	9.06
Neither team scores	4.1%	4.6%	9.1%	0.51×	21.68

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 3 goals	22.3%	22.6%	21.1%	1.07×	4.43
Exactly 2 goals	21.1%	22.6%	20.3%	1.11×	4.43
Exactly 4 goals	17.5%	17.5%	15.4%	1.13×	5.73
Exactly 1 goals	14.1%	12.1%	21.6%	0.56×	8.24
Exactly 5 goals	11.0%	12.1%	7.9%	1.54×	8.25
6 or more goals	9.8%	7.6%	5.1%	1.48×	13.13
Exactly 0 goals	4.1%	4.5%	9.1%	0.49×	22.38

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 1st half	35.5%	37.3%	—	—	2.68
No goals in 1st half	27.0%	28.5%	—	—	3.52
2 goals in 1st half	23.1%	21.5%	—	—	4.66
3+ goals in 1st half	14.5%	10.8%	—	—	9.26

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	54.5%	51.3%	—	—	1.95
1 goal in 2nd half	29.5%	29.3%	—	—	3.42
No goals in 2nd half	16.0%	16.4%	—	—	6.10

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting Gijón not to win both halves	92.9%	94.1%	—	—	1.06
Castellón not to win both halves	86.1%	87.9%	—	—	1.14
Castellón to win both halves	13.9%	12.1%	—	—	8.27
Sporting Gijón to win both halves	7.1%	5.9%	—	—	17.01

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Castellón to win either half	60.8%	65.0%	—	—	1.54
Sporting Gijón to win neither half	53.5%	54.3%	—	—	1.84
Sporting Gijón to win either half	46.5%	45.7%	—	—	2.19
Castellón to win neither half	39.2%	35.0%	—	—	2.86

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sporting Gijón not to win to nil	86.7%	88.1%	86.6%	1.02×	1.14
Castellón not to win to nil	79.1%	78.1%	76.4%	1.02×	1.28
Castellón to win to nil	20.9%	21.9%	23.6%	0.93×	4.58
Sporting Gijón to win to nil	13.3%	11.9%	13.4%	0.89×	8.41

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	22.8%	24.1%	26.5%	0.91×	4.15
Castellón by 1	21.6%	24.1%	26.0%	0.93×	4.15
Sporting Gijón by 1	17.2%	17.0%	17.9%	0.95×	5.87
Castellón by 2	13.9%	11.8%	12.1%	0.98×	8.50
Castellón by 3+	10.8%	11.8%	7.7%	1.54×	8.51
Sporting Gijón by 2	8.8%	7.2%	7.1%	1.01×	13.90
Sporting Gijón by 3+	4.9%	2.7%	3.2%	0.84×	36.75