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Caykur Rizespor v Istanbul Basaksehir — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 13 December 2026 · TUR-Super Lig · 2627

TUR-Super Lig results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily
Caykur Rizespor win
31.1%
model 31.8%
Draw
28.9%
model 28.8%
Istanbul Basaksehir win
39.9%
model 39.4%

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (648 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

  1. 1-1 13.8%
  2. 0-1 8.8%
  3. 1-2 8.7%
  4. 0-0 8.6%
  5. 2-1 7.6%

Goals

Over 2.548.8% Under 2.551.2%
BTTS yes54.5% BTTS no45.5%
Caykur Rizespor 1+70.8% Caykur Rizespor 2+34.8%
Istanbul Basaksehir 1+75.2% Istanbul Basaksehir 2+40.6%

Expected goals 1.23 – 1.39. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence
77/100
Data quality
65/100
Model agreement
96%
★ Best pick
Istanbul Basaksehir (+0.5)
Asian handicap · usually 55%
68.8% fair odds 1.45
strong signal · 1169 settled matches behind the band
★ Most likely to land
Caykur Rizespor not to win to nil
Win to nil · usually 78%
83.2% fair odds 1.20
moderate signal · 1180 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

  • Istanbul Basaksehir carry the stronger rating, 1615 Elo against 1487.

Risk factors

  • No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.
Why the model thinks this

The price

Istanbul Basaksehir have an estimated 39.9% win probability, against 31.1% for Caykur Rizespor and 28.9% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.23 for Caykur Rizespor and 1.39 for Istanbul Basaksehir.

Why Caykur Rizespor

Nothing in the data singles out Caykur Rizespor.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 28.9%. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.23 to 1.39. Draws run at 26% in this competition.

Why Istanbul Basaksehir can win

Istanbul Basaksehir carry the stronger rating, 1615 Elo against 1487.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Caykur Rizespor, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Istanbul Basaksehir, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Caykur Rizespor: 54% possession, 19.0 shots a match, 12.2 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Istanbul Basaksehir: 42% possession, 10.0 shots a match, 10.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-27 10:01 · team_stats 2026-10-27 06:03 · availability 2026-10-27 14:57 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Istanbul Basaksehir are the model's most likely outcome at 39.9%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 13.8%. Confidence 77/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
ai-blend 1.23–1.39 0% 0% 0%
dc-xg 1.23–1.56 1-1 13% 53% 57%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Istanbul Basaksehir to win 43.7% 42.9% 28.9% 1.49× 2.33
Caykur Rizespor to win 28.8% 27.9% 45.4% 0.62× 3.58
Draw 27.5% 27.9% 25.9% 1.08× 3.58
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Istanbul Basaksehir & both teams score 21.8% 21.8% 14.6% 1.49× 4.59
Istanbul Basaksehir & not both score 21.9% 21.8% 14.4% 1.51× 4.59
Draw & both teams score 20.1% 21.8% 18.1% 1.20× 4.59
Caykur Rizespor & both teams score 15.1% 18.0% 23.1% 0.78× 5.57
Caykur Rizespor & not both score 13.6% 13.3% 22.4% 0.59× 7.54
Draw & not both score 7.5% 8.3% 8.0% 1.05× 12.00
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Istanbul Basaksehir & over 1.5 35.3% 34.9% 22.4% 1.56× 2.87
Istanbul Basaksehir & under 3.5 28.9% 26.1% 19.6% 1.33× 3.84
Istanbul Basaksehir & over 2.5 27.8% 26.1% 18.1% 1.44× 3.84
Caykur Rizespor & over 1.5 22.4% 21.6% 36.2% 0.60× 4.63
Draw & over 1.5 20.1% 21.6% 18.1% 1.19× 4.63
Draw & under 2.5 20.5% 21.6% 20.3% 1.06× 4.63
Draw & under 3.5 20.5% 21.6% 20.3% 1.06× 4.63
Caykur Rizespor & under 3.5 20.1% 21.6% 29.5% 0.73× 4.63
Caykur Rizespor & over 2.5 17.8% 18.0% 30.3% 0.59× 5.56
Istanbul Basaksehir & under 2.5 15.9% 18.0% 10.9% 1.65× 5.56
Istanbul Basaksehir & over 3.5 14.8% 12.8% 9.4% 1.36× 7.79
Caykur Rizespor & under 2.5 11.0% 12.8% 15.2% 0.85× 7.79
Caykur Rizespor & over 3.5 8.7% 7.9% 16.1% 0.49× 12.63
Draw & under 1.5 7.5% 7.9% 8.0% 1.00× 12.63
Istanbul Basaksehir & under 1.5 8.4% 7.9% 6.6% 1.19× 12.63
Draw & over 2.5 7.0% 7.9% 5.7% 1.38× 12.63
Draw & over 3.5 7.0% 7.9% 5.7% 1.38× 12.63
Caykur Rizespor & under 1.5 6.3% 7.9% 9.3% 0.85× 12.63
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Istanbul Basaksehir (1UP) 60.2% 62.7% — — 1.59
Caykur Rizespor (1UP) 47.3% 43.8% — — 2.28
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Istanbul Basaksehir (2UP) 43.7% 47.1% — — 2.12
Caykur Rizespor (2UP) 28.8% 25.3% — — 3.95
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Istanbul Basaksehir to win 2nd half 38.9% 36.5% — — 2.74
2nd half drawn 35.4% 36.4% — — 2.75
Caykur Rizespor to win 2nd half 25.7% 26.0% — — 3.84
2nd half away goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Istanbul Basaksehir under 1.5 in 2nd half 76.0% 79.4% — — 1.26
Istanbul Basaksehir over 0.5 in 2nd half 60.7% 60.2% — — 1.66
Istanbul Basaksehir under 0.5 in 2nd half 39.3% 39.8% — — 2.51
Istanbul Basaksehir over 1.5 in 2nd half 24.0% 20.6% — — 4.85
2nd half home goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Caykur Rizespor under 1.5 in 2nd half 84.5% 82.5% — — 1.21
Caykur Rizespor over 0.5 in 2nd half 50.3% 54.8% — — 1.82
Caykur Rizespor under 0.5 in 2nd half 49.7% 45.2% — — 2.22
Caykur Rizespor over 1.5 in 2nd half 15.5% 17.5% — — 5.72
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Istanbul Basaksehir (+2.5) 95.9% 96.3% 90.0% 1.07× 1.04
Istanbul Basaksehir (+1.5) 87.5% 88.5% 78.5% 1.13× 1.13
Istanbul Basaksehir (+0.5) 71.2% 73.6% 54.6% 1.35× 1.36
Caykur Rizespor (+0.5) 56.3% 57.0% 71.1% 0.80× 1.75
Istanbul Basaksehir (-0.5) 43.7% 43.0% 28.9% 1.49× 2.33
Caykur Rizespor (-0.5) 28.8% 26.4% 45.4% 0.58× 3.80
Caykur Rizespor (-1.5) 12.5% 11.5% 21.5% 0.54× 8.67
Caykur Rizespor (-2.5) 4.1% 3.7% 10.0% 0.37× 27.08
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Istanbul Basaksehir to concede 70.7% 76.6% 77.8% 0.99× 1.31
Istanbul Basaksehir clean sheet 29.3% 23.4% 22.2% 1.05× 4.28
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Istanbul Basaksehir clean sheet in 1st half 59.0% 56.6% — — 1.77
Istanbul Basaksehir to concede in 1st half 41.0% 43.4% — — 2.30
Away clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Istanbul Basaksehir to concede in 2nd half 50.3% 54.4% — — 1.84
Istanbul Basaksehir clean sheet in 2nd half 49.7% 45.6% — — 2.19
Away corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Istanbul Basaksehir under 6.5 corners 88.2% 85.2% — — 1.17
Istanbul Basaksehir under 5.5 corners 79.6% 76.1% — — 1.32
Istanbul Basaksehir over 2.5 corners 68.0% 67.6% — — 1.48
Istanbul Basaksehir under 4.5 corners 67.0% 67.6% — — 1.48
Istanbul Basaksehir under 3.5 corners 50.6% 53.1% — — 1.88
Istanbul Basaksehir over 3.5 corners 49.4% 46.9% — — 2.13
Istanbul Basaksehir over 4.5 corners 33.0% 32.4% — — 3.09
Istanbul Basaksehir under 2.5 corners 32.0% 32.4% — — 3.09
Istanbul Basaksehir over 5.5 corners 20.4% 23.9% — — 4.18
Istanbul Basaksehir over 6.5 corners 11.8% 14.8% — — 6.78
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Istanbul Basaksehir under 3.5 goals 92.7% 92.4% 95.3% 0.97× 1.08
Istanbul Basaksehir under 2.5 goals 79.5% 76.3% 86.2% 0.89× 1.31
Istanbul Basaksehir over 0.5 goals 78.9% 76.3% 69.8% 1.09× 1.31
Istanbul Basaksehir under 1.5 goals 53.9% 53.5% 65.2% 0.82× 1.87
Istanbul Basaksehir over 1.5 goals 46.1% 46.5% 34.8% 1.34× 2.15
Istanbul Basaksehir under 0.5 goals 21.1% 23.7% 30.2% 0.79× 4.21
Istanbul Basaksehir over 2.5 goals 20.5% 23.7% 13.8% 1.71× 4.21
Istanbul Basaksehir over 3.5 goals 7.3% 7.7% 4.7% 1.62× 13.07
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Istanbul Basaksehir under 1.5 in 1st half 87.1% 89.2% — — 1.12
Istanbul Basaksehir under 0.5 in 1st half 53.7% 55.9% — — 1.79
Istanbul Basaksehir over 0.5 in 1st half 46.3% 44.1% — — 2.27
Istanbul Basaksehir over 1.5 in 1st half 12.9% 10.8% — — 9.28
Away highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Istanbul Basaksehir scores more in 2nd half 41.3% 43.6% — — 2.29
Istanbul Basaksehir scores equally in both 35.3% 37.3% — — 2.68
Istanbul Basaksehir scores more in 1st half 23.4% 21.8% — — 4.59
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Caykur Rizespor (away no bet) 51.1% 51.7% 63.6% 0.81× 1.94
Draw (away no bet) 48.9% 48.3% 36.4% 1.33× 2.07
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Istanbul Basaksehir even goals 52.2% 52.6% 54.5% 0.97× 1.90
Istanbul Basaksehir odd goals 47.8% 47.4% 45.5% 1.04× 2.11
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 84.5% 83.3% — — 1.20
Both halves over 1.5 goals 15.5% 16.8% — — 5.97
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves under 1.5 65.6% 67.7% — — 1.48
Both halves under 1.5 goals 34.4% 32.3% — — 3.10
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 56.7% 54.9% — — 1.82
Istanbul Basaksehir to score 2+ in a row 37.5% 36.5% — — 2.74
Caykur Rizespor to score 2+ in a row 25.9% 24.9% — — 4.01
Either team to score 3+ in a row 20.2% 19.5% — — 5.14
Istanbul Basaksehir to score 3+ in a row 13.4% 12.2% — — 8.21
Caykur Rizespor to score 3+ in a row 7.1% 5.5% — — 18.21
Corner handicap 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Caykur Rizespor corners (+3.5) 92.1% 89.6% — — 1.12
Caykur Rizespor corners (+2.5) 87.0% 84.5% — — 1.18
Caykur Rizespor corners (+1.5) 79.7% 74.8% — — 1.34
Istanbul Basaksehir corners (+3.5) 73.7% 70.8% — — 1.41
Istanbul Basaksehir corners (+2.5) 63.7% 61.9% — — 1.62
Istanbul Basaksehir corners (+1.5) 52.4% 52.4% — — 1.91
Caykur Rizespor corners (-1.5) 47.6% 47.6% — — 2.10
Caykur Rizespor corners (-2.5) 36.3% 38.1% — — 2.62
Caykur Rizespor corners (-3.5) 26.3% 29.2% — — 3.42
Istanbul Basaksehir corners (-1.5) 20.3% 25.2% — — 3.97
Istanbul Basaksehir corners (-2.5) 13.0% 15.5% — — 6.45
Istanbul Basaksehir corners (-3.5) 7.9% 10.4% — — 9.60
Corner range 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
0-8 corners 49.0% 41.8% — — 2.40
9-11 corners 28.9% 31.2% — — 3.20
12+ corners 22.0% 25.7% — — 3.90
Corners O/U 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 12.5 corners 84.5% 80.7% — — 1.24
Under 11.5 corners 78.0% 76.6% — — 1.31
Under 10.5 corners 69.8% 67.8% — — 1.48
Over 7.5 corners 62.4% 63.3% — — 1.58
Under 9.5 corners 60.0% 57.9% — — 1.73
Over 8.5 corners 51.0% 53.2% — — 1.88
Under 8.5 corners 49.0% 46.8% — — 2.14
Over 9.5 corners 40.0% 42.1% — — 2.37
Under 7.5 corners 37.6% 36.8% — — 2.72
Over 10.5 corners 30.2% 32.2% — — 3.11
Over 11.5 corners 22.0% 23.4% — — 4.27
Over 12.5 corners 15.5% 19.3% — — 5.18
Corners Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of corners 50.0% 50.2% — — 1.99
Even number of corners 50.0% 49.8% — — 2.01
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-1 13.1% 11.5% 12.5% 0.92× 8.71
1-2 9.2% 7.4% 6.6% 1.12× 13.51
0-1 8.4% 7.4% 6.6% 1.12× 13.51
2-1 7.2% 7.4% 9.9% 0.75× 13.51
0-0 7.5% 7.4% 8.0% 0.93× 13.51
0-2 7.5% 7.4% 4.4% 1.68× 13.51
2-2 5.6% 7.4% 4.6% 1.62× 13.51
1-0 6.3% 7.4% 9.3% 0.80× 13.51
1-3 4.8% 1.7% 2.7% 0.65× 58.29
1-4 1.9% 1.7% 1.0% 1.66× 58.31
2-0 4.7% 1.7% 6.0% 0.28× 58.29
2-3 2.9% 1.7% 2.7% 0.65× 58.30
2-4 1.1% 1.7% 0.9% 1.94× 58.31
3-0 1.9% 1.7% 4.7% 0.36× 58.31
3-1 3.0% 1.7% 4.7% 0.36× 58.30
3-2 2.3% 1.7% 4.3% 0.40× 58.31
3-3 1.2% 1.7% 1.3% 1.29× 58.31
3-4 0.5% 1.7% 0.4% 3.88× 58.32
4-0 0.6% 1.7% 1.8% 0.97× 58.32
4-1 0.9% 1.7% 1.5% 1.16× 58.31
4-2 0.7% 1.7% 1.2% 1.46× 58.32
4-3 0.4% 1.7% 0.7% 2.33× 58.32
4-4 0.1% 1.7% 0.1% 11.64× 58.32
Any other score 3.0% 1.7% 4.1% 0.42× 58.30
0-3 3.9% 1.7% 2.4% 0.73× 58.30
0-4 1.5% 1.7% 1.2% 1.46× 58.31
DNB 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Istanbul Basaksehir (2nd half DNB) 60.3% 62.7% — — 1.60
Caykur Rizespor (2nd half DNB) 39.7% 37.3% — — 2.68
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Istanbul Basaksehir leading at HT (DNB) 55.4% 55.3% — — 1.81
Caykur Rizespor leading at HT (DNB) 44.6% 44.7% — — 2.24
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Caykur Rizespor or Istanbul Basaksehir (12) 72.5% 72.1% 74.1% 0.97× 1.39
Istanbul Basaksehir or draw (X2) 71.2% 72.1% 54.6% 1.32× 1.39
Caykur Rizespor or draw (1X) 56.3% 57.1% 71.1% 0.80× 1.75
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Istanbul Basaksehir or draw at HT 74.8% 74.6% — — 1.34
Caykur Rizespor or draw at HT 68.6% 67.2% — — 1.49
Caykur Rizespor or Istanbul Basaksehir at HT 56.6% 57.4% — — 1.74
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Istanbul Basaksehir or draw (1UP) 71.2% 79.5% — — 1.26
Caykur Rizespor or draw (1UP) 56.3% 62.9% — — 1.59
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Istanbul Basaksehir or draw in 2nd half 74.3% 74.0% — — 1.35
Caykur Rizespor or Istanbul Basaksehir in 2nd half 64.6% 63.6% — — 1.57
Caykur Rizespor or draw in 2nd half 61.1% 63.5% — — 1.57
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half drawn 62.0% 61.3% — — 1.63
Neither half drawn 38.0% 38.7% — — 2.59
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Istanbul Basaksehir (DNB) 60.3% 62.6% 38.9% 1.61× 1.60
Caykur Rizespor (DNB) 39.7% 37.4% 61.1% 0.61× 2.68
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Istanbul Basaksehir to score first 51.8% 53.3% — — 1.88
Caykur Rizespor to score first 40.8% 41.6% — — 2.40
No goal scored 7.5% 7.6% — — 13.21
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams to score 57.0% 55.0% 55.5% 0.99× 1.82
Not both teams to score 43.0% 45.0% 44.5% 1.01× 2.22
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both score & over 2.5 43.9% 41.6% 43.2% 0.96× 2.40
Not both score & under 2.5 34.3% 34.6% 33.7% 1.03× 2.89
Both score & under 2.5 13.1% 12.4% 12.5% 0.99× 8.09
Not both score & over 2.5 8.7% 8.3% 10.9% 0.76× 12.06
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 84.0% 82.7% 83.4% 0.99× 1.21
Both teams to score 2+ 16.0% 17.3% 16.6% 1.04× 5.77
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 69.1% 67.3% — — 1.49
Both teams to score in 2nd half 30.9% 32.7% — — 3.06
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 55.6% 60.0% — — 1.67
Both score 2nd half only 25.2% 26.7% — — 3.75
Both score 1st half only 13.4% 10.7% — — 9.30
Both score in both halves 5.8% 6.7% — — 14.82
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 80.8% 83.4% — — 1.20
Both teams to score by HT 19.2% 16.6% — — 6.02
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A goal in each half 55.6% 56.9% — — 1.76
A half without a goal 44.4% 43.1% — — 2.32
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-3 goals 47.4% 47.2% 45.7% 1.03× 2.12
4-6 goals 28.0% 26.6% 28.4% 0.94× 3.76
0-1 goals 22.2% 22.9% 23.6% 0.97× 4.36
7+ goals 2.4% 1.8% 2.7% 0.69× 54.32
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Istanbul Basaksehir to score exactly 1 32.8% 33.8% 35.2% 0.96× 2.96
Istanbul Basaksehir to score exactly 2 25.5% 27.4% 21.1% 1.30× 3.65
Istanbul Basaksehir to score exactly 0 21.1% 22.3% 30.2% 0.74× 4.49
Istanbul Basaksehir to score 3+ 20.5% 22.3% 13.8% 1.61× 4.49
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Caykur Rizespor to score exactly 1 36.0% 35.5% 32.0% 1.11× 2.81
Caykur Rizespor to score exactly 0 29.3% 26.6% 22.2% 1.19× 3.76
Caykur Rizespor to score exactly 2 22.1% 23.3% 23.9% 0.98× 4.29
Caykur Rizespor to score 3+ 12.6% 14.3% 22.2% 0.64× 6.99
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw at HT 43.4% 42.6% — — 2.35
Istanbul Basaksehir leading at HT 31.4% 32.8% — — 3.05
Caykur Rizespor leading at HT 25.2% 25.4% — — 3.93
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Istanbul Basaksehir -1: 1 56.3% 56.7% — — 1.76
Istanbul Basaksehir -1: 2 22.7% 23.5% — — 4.25
Istanbul Basaksehir -1: X 21.0% 23.5% — — 4.26
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Istanbul Basaksehir (0:1) 71.2% 71.0% 54.6% 1.30× 1.41
Draw (0:1) 16.3% 17.8% 24.0% 0.74× 5.62
Caykur Rizespor (0:1) 12.5% 13.7% 21.5% 0.64× 7.30
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Istanbul Basaksehir (0:2) 87.5% 87.1% 78.5% 1.11× 1.15
Draw (0:2) 8.4% 7.7% 11.6% 0.66× 13.05
Caykur Rizespor (0:2) 4.1% 3.8% 10.0% 0.37× 26.66
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Istanbul Basaksehir (0:3) 95.9% 96.6% 90.0% 1.07× 1.04
Draw (0:3) 3.0% 2.4% 6.6% 0.36× 42.01
Caykur Rizespor (0:3) 1.1% 2.4% 3.5% 0.67× 42.09
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Istanbul Basaksehir (0:4) 98.9% 98.1% 96.5% 1.02× 1.02
Draw (0:4) 0.8% 1.2% 2.5% 0.49× 81.88
Caykur Rizespor (0:4) 0.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.04× 81.94
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Caykur Rizespor (1:0) 56.3% 58.3% 71.1% 0.82× 1.72
Istanbul Basaksehir (1:0) 22.7% 21.7% 13.1% 1.65× 4.61
Draw (1:0) 21.0% 21.7% 15.9% 1.36× 4.61
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Caykur Rizespor (2:0) 77.3% 80.4% 86.9% 0.93× 1.24
Draw (2:0) 13.6% 10.3% 7.8% 1.32× 9.71
Istanbul Basaksehir (2:0) 9.2% 6.4% 5.4% 1.17× 15.64
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 47.6% 48.6% — — 2.06
Halves equal 26.4% 26.2% — — 3.81
1st half highest scoring 26.0% 26.2% — — 3.81
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Caykur Rizespor to concede 78.9% 76.1% 69.8% 1.09× 1.31
Caykur Rizespor clean sheet 21.1% 23.9% 30.2% 0.79× 4.18
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Caykur Rizespor clean sheet in 1st half 53.7% 55.9% — — 1.79
Caykur Rizespor to concede in 1st half 46.3% 44.1% — — 2.27
Home clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Caykur Rizespor to concede in 2nd half 60.7% 59.7% — — 1.68
Caykur Rizespor clean sheet in 2nd half 39.3% 40.3% — — 2.48
Home corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Caykur Rizespor over 2.5 corners 83.2% 81.0% — — 1.24
Caykur Rizespor under 6.5 corners 72.0% 71.9% — — 1.39
Caykur Rizespor over 3.5 corners 69.6% 66.7% — — 1.50
Caykur Rizespor under 5.5 corners 59.8% 57.5% — — 1.74
Caykur Rizespor over 4.5 corners 54.6% 52.6% — — 1.90
Caykur Rizespor under 4.5 corners 45.4% 47.4% — — 2.11
Caykur Rizespor over 5.5 corners 40.2% 42.5% — — 2.35
Caykur Rizespor under 3.5 corners 30.4% 33.3% — — 3.01
Caykur Rizespor over 6.5 corners 28.0% 28.1% — — 3.56
Caykur Rizespor under 2.5 corners 16.8% 19.0% — — 5.26
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Caykur Rizespor under 3.5 goals 96.4% 96.4% 92.6% 1.04× 1.04
Caykur Rizespor under 2.5 goals 87.4% 87.3% 77.8% 1.12× 1.15
Caykur Rizespor over 0.5 goals 70.7% 74.2% 77.8% 0.95× 1.35
Caykur Rizespor under 1.5 goals 65.3% 67.9% 54.1% 1.26× 1.47
Caykur Rizespor over 1.5 goals 34.7% 32.1% 46.0% 0.70× 3.12
Caykur Rizespor under 0.5 goals 29.3% 25.8% 22.2% 1.16× 3.88
Caykur Rizespor over 2.5 goals 12.6% 12.7% 22.2% 0.57× 7.85
Caykur Rizespor over 3.5 goals 3.6% 3.6% 7.4% 0.49× 27.53
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Caykur Rizespor under 1.5 in 1st half 90.1% 94.6% — — 1.06
Caykur Rizespor under 0.5 in 1st half 59.0% 56.4% — — 1.77
Caykur Rizespor over 0.5 in 1st half 41.0% 43.6% — — 2.29
Caykur Rizespor over 1.5 in 1st half 9.9% 5.4% — — 18.43
Home highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Caykur Rizespor scores equally in both 41.2% 41.7% — — 2.40
Caykur Rizespor scores more in 2nd half 34.8% 33.3% — — 3.01
Caykur Rizespor scores more in 1st half 24.0% 21.0% — — 4.76
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Istanbul Basaksehir (home no bet) 61.4% 60.0% 52.7% 1.14× 1.67
Draw (home no bet) 38.6% 40.0% 47.3% 0.85× 2.50
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Caykur Rizespor even goals 54.3% 50.8% 51.0% 1.00× 1.97
Caykur Rizespor odd goals 45.7% 49.2% 49.0% 1.00× 2.03
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 0-0 31.9% 33.4% — — 2.99
HT 0-1 19.5% 18.6% — — 5.38
HT 1-0 16.5% 18.5% — — 5.39
HT 1-1 10.6% 11.0% — — 9.12
HT 0-2 6.1% 6.9% — — 14.56
HT 2-0 4.4% 2.4% — — 42.13
Any other HT score 4.1% 2.4% — — 42.15
HT 1-2 3.2% 2.4% — — 42.21
HT 2-1 2.7% 2.4% — — 42.24
HT 2-2 0.9% 2.4% — — 42.36
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Istanbul Basaksehir at HT / Istanbul Basaksehir at FT 24.5% 21.7% — — 4.61
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 16.8% 16.8% — — 5.97
Caykur Rizespor at HT / Caykur Rizespor at FT 16.5% 16.8% — — 5.97
Draw at HT / Istanbul Basaksehir at FT 16.2% 16.8% — — 5.97
Draw at HT / Caykur Rizespor at FT 10.5% 12.7% — — 7.91
Caykur Rizespor at HT / Draw at FT 5.7% 6.1% — — 16.53
Istanbul Basaksehir at HT / Draw at FT 5.0% 6.0% — — 16.55
Caykur Rizespor at HT / Istanbul Basaksehir at FT 3.0% 3.5% — — 28.93
Istanbul Basaksehir at HT / Caykur Rizespor at FT 1.8% 3.5% — — 28.97
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Istanbul Basaksehir to score last 51.8% 52.1% — — 1.92
Caykur Rizespor to score last 40.7% 39.9% — — 2.50
No goal scored 7.5% 7.6% — — 13.21
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 92.5% 92.5% — — 1.08
Istanbul Basaksehir to lead by 1 at any time 60.2% 61.1% — — 1.64
Caykur Rizespor to lead by 1 at any time 47.3% 44.3% — — 2.26
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 47.3% 44.3% — — 2.26
Istanbul Basaksehir to lead by 2 at any time 29.3% 25.3% — — 3.95
Caykur Rizespor to lead by 2 at any time 18.2% 14.8% — — 6.74
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 17.0% 14.8% — — 6.75
Istanbul Basaksehir to lead by 3 at any time 11.4% 10.6% — — 9.45
Caykur Rizespor to lead by 3 at any time 5.6% 6.6% — — 15.13
Most corners 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Caykur Rizespor most corners 59.3% 55.6% — — 1.80
Istanbul Basaksehir most corners 29.7% 31.1% — — 3.21
Corners level 11.0% 10.4% — — 9.59
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-5 goals 86.2% 87.4% 85.4% 1.02× 1.14
1-4 goals 77.6% 78.7% 75.4% 1.04× 1.27
2-6 goals 75.5% 78.7% 73.9% 1.06× 1.27
2-5 goals 71.5% 72.3% 69.8% 1.04× 1.38
2-4 goals 62.9% 63.3% 59.8% 1.06× 1.58
1-3 goals 62.1% 63.3% 61.3% 1.03× 1.58
3-6 goals 50.3% 53.1% 51.4% 1.03× 1.88
2-3 goals 47.4% 48.4% 45.7% 1.06× 2.06
3-5 goals 46.3% 48.4% 47.3% 1.02× 2.06
1-2 goals 39.9% 39.2% 38.3% 1.02× 2.55
3-4 goals 37.7% 39.2% 37.3% 1.05× 2.55
4-6 goals 28.0% 30.2% 28.4% 1.06× 3.31
4-5 goals 24.1% 24.5% 24.3% 1.01× 4.09
5-6 goals 12.6% 14.8% 14.3% 1.04× 6.76
7+ goals 2.4% 2.6% 2.7% 0.96× 39.16
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Istanbul Basaksehir never behind 45.2% 56.6% — — 1.77
Caykur Rizespor never behind 32.3% 36.3% — — 2.76
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of goals 47.3% 50.9% 50.8% 1.00× 1.97
Even number of goals 52.7% 49.1% 49.2% 1.00× 2.04
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 55.5% 57.7% — — 1.73
Odd goals in 1st half 44.5% 42.3% — — 2.37
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 52.8% 52.0% — — 1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half 47.2% 48.0% — — 2.08
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 5.5 goals 93.7% 92.3% 93.2% 0.99× 1.08
Over 0.5 goals 92.5% 92.3% 92.0% 1.00× 1.08
Under 4.5 goals 85.1% 87.6% 83.2% 1.05× 1.14
Over 1.5 goals 77.8% 77.3% 76.4% 1.01× 1.29
Under 3.5 goals 69.6% 66.3% 69.1% 0.96× 1.51
Over 2.5 goals 52.6% 52.5% 53.9% 0.97× 1.90
Under 2.5 goals 47.4% 47.5% 46.1% 1.03× 2.11
Over 3.5 goals 30.4% 33.7% 30.9% 1.09× 2.97
Under 1.5 goals 22.2% 22.7% 23.6% 0.96× 4.40
Over 4.5 goals 14.9% 12.4% 16.8% 0.74× 8.06
Under 0.5 goals 7.5% 7.7% 8.0% 0.97× 12.94
Over 5.5 goals 6.3% 7.7% 6.8% 1.14× 12.94
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 97.5% 97.2% 97.2% 1.00× 1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 93.1% 92.4% 92.5% 1.00× 1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 82.3% 81.1% 80.4% 1.01× 1.23
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 70.4% 72.3% 69.6% 1.04× 1.38
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 60.9% 61.9% 59.8% 1.03× 1.62
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 39.1% 38.1% 40.2% 0.95× 2.62
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 29.6% 27.7% 30.4% 0.91× 3.62
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 17.7% 18.9% 19.6% 0.97× 5.29
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 6.9% 7.6% 7.5% 1.01× 13.19
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 2.5% 2.8% 2.8% 1.02× 35.62
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half 89.0% 89.1% — — 1.12
Over 0.5 in 1st half 68.1% 68.6% — — 1.46
Under 1.5 in 1st half 67.9% 68.6% — — 1.46
Over 1.5 in 1st half 32.1% 31.4% — — 3.19
Under 0.5 in 1st half 31.9% 31.4% — — 3.19
Over 2.5 in 1st half 11.0% 10.9% — — 9.17
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 80.0% 82.9% — — 1.21
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 77.5% 79.6% — — 1.26
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 51.0% 53.1% — — 1.88
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 49.0% 46.9% — — 2.13
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 22.5% 20.4% — — 4.89
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 20.0% 17.1% — — 5.84
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Caykur Rizespor not to score in both halves 79.4% 78.5% — — 1.27
Istanbul Basaksehir not to score in both halves 71.9% 73.8% — — 1.35
Istanbul Basaksehir to score in both halves 28.1% 26.2% — — 3.82
Caykur Rizespor to score in both halves 20.6% 21.5% — — 4.66
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams score 57.0% 58.6% 55.5% 1.05× 1.71
Only Istanbul Basaksehir scores 21.9% 22.2% 14.4% 1.54× 4.50
Only Caykur Rizespor scores 13.6% 11.0% 22.4% 0.49× 9.06
Neither team scores 7.5% 7.1% 8.0% 0.90× 14.00
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 2 goals 25.2% 24.9% 22.7% 1.10× 4.02
Exactly 3 goals 22.2% 22.6% 23.1% 0.98× 4.43
Exactly 4 goals 15.5% 17.5% 14.3% 1.22× 5.73
Exactly 1 goals 14.7% 12.1% 15.8% 0.77× 8.25
Exactly 5 goals 8.6% 7.6% 10.2% 0.75× 13.13
Exactly 0 goals 7.5% 7.6% 8.0% 0.96× 13.14
6 or more goals 6.3% 7.6% 6.8% 1.12× 13.14
Total goals 1st half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1 goal in 1st half 36.0% 37.2% — — 2.69
No goals in 1st half 31.9% 35.7% — — 2.80
2 goals in 1st half 21.1% 21.5% — — 4.66
3+ goals in 1st half 11.0% 10.8% — — 9.25
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half 49.0% 44.8% — — 2.23
1 goal in 2nd half 31.0% 33.8% — — 2.96
No goals in 2nd half 20.0% 16.9% — — 5.93
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Caykur Rizespor not to win both halves 93.4% 94.2% — — 1.06
Istanbul Basaksehir not to win both halves 87.6% 88.0% — — 1.14
Istanbul Basaksehir to win both halves 12.4% 12.0% — — 8.30
Caykur Rizespor to win both halves 6.6% 5.8% — — 17.18
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Istanbul Basaksehir to win either half 57.9% 59.0% — — 1.69
Caykur Rizespor to win neither half 55.7% 59.0% — — 1.70
Caykur Rizespor to win either half 44.3% 41.0% — — 2.44
Istanbul Basaksehir to win neither half 42.1% 41.0% — — 2.44
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Caykur Rizespor not to win to nil 86.4% 88.1% 77.6% 1.14× 1.14
Istanbul Basaksehir not to win to nil 78.1% 78.1% 85.6% 0.91× 1.28
Istanbul Basaksehir to win to nil 21.9% 21.9% 14.4% 1.51× 4.57
Caykur Rizespor to win to nil 13.6% 11.9% 22.4% 0.53× 8.41
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw 27.5% 27.9% 25.9% 1.08× 3.59
Istanbul Basaksehir by 1 21.0% 24.1% 15.9% 1.52× 4.15
Caykur Rizespor by 1 16.3% 17.0% 24.0% 0.71× 5.87
Istanbul Basaksehir by 2 13.6% 11.8% 7.8% 1.51× 8.50
Istanbul Basaksehir by 3+ 9.2% 7.2% 5.4% 1.32× 13.90
Caykur Rizespor by 2 8.4% 7.2% 11.6% 0.62× 13.91
Caykur Rizespor by 3+ 4.1% 2.7% 10.0% 0.27× 36.84
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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