CD Sabadell v Las Palmas — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 20 December 2026 · ESP-La Liga 2 · 2627
La Liga
results-only Prediction generated
AI prediction
ai-blend v1.0 dailyRaw model output; no calibration record for this fixture's bands yet.
Top 5 scorelines
- 1-0 16.5%
- 0-0 13.8%
- 1-1 12.8%
- 0-1 11.7%
- 2-0 9.3%
Goals
| Over 2.5 | 31.2% | Under 2.5 | 68.8% |
| BTTS yes | 37.6% | BTTS no | 62.4% |
| CD Sabadell 1+ | 68.3% | CD Sabadell 2+ | 31.9% |
| Las Palmas 1+ | 55.4% | Las Palmas 2+ | 19.4% |
Expected goals 1.15 – 0.81. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.
Footing
Positive factors
- Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.
Risk factors
- Data quality is 45/100, so this price rests on less than the model would like.
- CD Sabadell have only 4 matches on record.
Why the model thinks this
The price
CD Sabadell have an estimated 44.0% win probability, against 30.0% for the draw and 26.0% for Las Palmas. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.15 for CD Sabadell and 0.81 for Las Palmas.
Why CD Sabadell
Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.
Why the draw is live
The draw sits at 30.0%. A combined 1.96 expected goals is a low-scoring profile, and low totals mean more level finishes. Draws run at 26% in this competition.
Why Las Palmas can win
Las Palmas carry the stronger rating, 1574 Elo against 1534. Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.
Key players
Las Palmas's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Fabio Silva (0.41), Oliver McBurnie (0.26), Alberto Moleiro (0.21).
Availability
No lineup on record for CD Sabadell, so availability is unknown. 3 of Las Palmas's top three contributors did not start their last match.
The matchup, as far as the data reaches
CD Sabadell: 38% possession, 15.0 shots a match, 10.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Las Palmas: 56% possession, 8.8 shots a match, 12.2 faced, 0.28 xG a match from set pieces.
Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-25 14:59 · team_stats 2026-10-25 06:07 · availability 2026-10-25 15:02 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·
CD Sabadell are the model's most likely outcome at 44.0%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-0 at 16.5%. Confidence 44/100, data quality 45/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.
Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.
Was this pick made in advance?
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Las Palmas have scored 8 from 9.8 expected and conceded 14 from 15.3 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend | 1.15–0.81 | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| dc-xg | 1.02–0.66 | 1-0 19% | 24% | 31% |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.