Celta Vigo v Alaves — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 22 March 2026 · ESP-La Liga · 2526
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
12 – 14
On target
5 – 6
Shots in box
9 – 10
xG per shot
0.14 – 0.12
Set-piece xG
0.55 – 0.00
Goals − xG
+1.27 – +2.33
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Celta Vigo win
53.3%
Draw
27.6%
Alaves win
19.1%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Celta Vigo are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 7.6 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWLDWDLLDD last 10
scored 10
from 9.5 xG
conceded 10
from 17.6 xG
Alaves are finishing above their chances — 2.5 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off.
WLDWWLWDWW last 10
scored 18
from 15.5 xG
conceded 11
from 9.8 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.53–0.82 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.71–1.04 | 1-1 11% | 52% | 53% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Celta Vigo 1.73 xGAlaves 1.67 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Celta Vigo attacking right
Alaves attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5' |
 Alaves |
Pablo Ibáñez | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Lucas Boyé |
| 6' |
Alaves |
Antonio Martínez | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 6' |
Alaves |
Antonio Martínez | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Ángel Pérez |
| 15' |
 Celta Vigo |
Borja Iglesias | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jones El Abdellaoui |
| 18' |
Celta Vigo |
Ferrán Jutglà | 0.44 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Javier Rodríguez |
| 26' |
Celta Vigo |
Hugo Álvarez | 0.28 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Ferrán Jutglà |
| 31' |
Alaves |
Antonio Martínez | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Carles Aleñá |
| 36' |
Celta Vigo |
Ferrán Jutglà | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Hugo Sotelo |
| 40' |
Celta Vigo |
Álvaro Núñez | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Óscar Mingueza |
| 43' |
Alaves |
Carles Aleñá | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Ángel Pérez |
| 46' |
Alaves |
Ibrahim Diabate | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Antonio Martínez |
| 47' |
Alaves |
Antonio Martínez | 0.35 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Ángel Pérez |
| 48' |
Alaves |
Antonio Martínez | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 49' |
Alaves |
Ángel Pérez | 0.41 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Antonio Martínez |
| 51' |
Alaves |
Jon Guridi | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Denis Suárez |
| 65' |
Celta Vigo |
Fernando López | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Hugo Sotelo |
| 70' |
Alaves |
Ibrahim Diabate | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Ángel Pérez |
| 72' |
Alaves |
Jon Guridi | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 73' |
Alaves |
Antonio Martínez | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Abderrahmane Rebbach |
| 77' |
Alaves |
Abderrahmane Rebbach | 0.41 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Victor Parada |
| 80' |
Celta Vigo |
Fernando López | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 84' |
Celta Vigo |
Fernando López | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Javier Rueda |
| 95' |
Celta Vigo |
Iago Aspas | 0.05 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Javier Rueda |
| 96' |
Celta Vigo |
Carlos Domínguez | 0.45 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Hugo Sotelo |
| 96' |
Celta Vigo |
Pablo Durán | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 98' |
Celta Vigo |
Pablo Durán | 0.08 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Iago Aspas |
Players
Celta Vigo
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ferrán Jutglà FWR | 90 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.56 | 0.28 | 0.99 |
| Carlos Domínguez DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.45 | 0.00 | 0.28 |
| Hugo Álvarez FWL | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.28 | 0.00 | 0.28 |
| Ionut Radu GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.28 |
| Javier Rodríguez DC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.44 | 0.90 |
| Hugo Sotelo MC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.62 | 0.74 |
| Joseph Aidoo DC | 85 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Borja Iglesias FW | 72 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Jones El Abdellaoui DMR | 72 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.18 |
| Álvaro Núñez DML | 57 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Óscar Mingueza MC | 57 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.25 |
| Fernando López Sub | 33 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.00 | 0.22 |
| Sergio Carreira Sub | 33 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Pablo Durán Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Javier Rueda Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.12 |
| Iago Aspas Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.08 | 0.08 |
Alaves
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Martínez FW | 90 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 0.55 | 0.45 | 1.54 |
| Ángel Pérez MR | 90 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0.41 | 0.55 | 1.37 |
| Nahuel Tenaglia DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.78 |
| Antonio Sivera GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.47 |
| Jonny DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.25 |
| Antonio Blanco MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.51 |
| Victor Parada DL | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.41 | 0.46 |
| Carles Aleñá ML | 49 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.05 |
| Pablo Ibáñez MC | 49 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Lucas Boyé FW | 49 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| Jon Pacheco Dozagarat DC | 49 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Abderrahmane Rebbach Sub | 41 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.41 | 0.02 | 0.43 |
| Ibrahim Diabate Sub | 41 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.57 |
| Jon Guridi Sub | 41 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.63 |
| Denis Suárez Sub | 41 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.51 |
| Ville Koski Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |