Celta Vigo v Getafe — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 17 August 2025 · ESP-La Liga · 2526
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
11 – 10
On target
3 – 3
Shots in box
6 – 6
xG per shot
0.07 – 0.15
Set-piece xG
0.11 – 0.06
Goals − xG
-0.74 – +0.50
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Celta Vigo win
54.1%
Draw
20.7%
Getafe win
25.3%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Celta Vigo are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 7.6 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWLDWDLLDD last 10
scored 10
from 9.5 xG
conceded 10
from 17.6 xG
Getafe are finishing below their chances — 3.3 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
LLDWLWLWLD last 10
scored 6
from 9.3 xG
conceded 11
from 12.1 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.72–1.07 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.68–0.92 | 1-0 12% | 48% | 49% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Celta Vigo 0.74 xGGetafe 1.50 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Celta Vigo attacking right
Getafe attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3' |
 Getafe |
Mario Martín | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Luis Milla |
| 12' |
Getafe |
Mauro Arambarri | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Luis Milla |
| 20' |
 Celta Vigo |
Iago Aspas | 0.34 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Óscar Mingueza |
| 29' |
Celta Vigo |
Óscar Mingueza | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Iago Aspas |
| 36' |
Getafe |
Diego Rico | 0.01 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 38' |
Getafe |
Christantus Uche | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Mauro Arambarri |
| 45' |
Getafe |
Davinchi | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 46' |
Getafe |
Adrián Liso | 0.44 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Christantus Uche |
| 52' |
Getafe |
Mario Martín | 0.01 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 60' |
Celta Vigo |
Marcos Alonso | 0.05 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 63' |
Celta Vigo |
Ferrán Jutglà | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Jones El Abdellaoui |
| 68' |
Celta Vigo |
Bryan Zaragoza | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 69' |
Celta Vigo |
Iago Aspas | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Jones El Abdellaoui |
| 70' |
Celta Vigo |
Iago Aspas | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 71' |
Getafe |
Christantus Uche | 0.72 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Ismael Bekhoucha |
| 72' |
Celta Vigo |
Marcos Alonso | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Javier Rodríguez |
| 82' |
Getafe |
Mario Martín | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Christantus Uche |
| 85' |
Celta Vigo |
Pablo Durán | 0.01 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Óscar Mingueza |
| 87' |
Getafe |
Mauro Arambarri | 0.02 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Christantus Uche |
| 94' |
Celta Vigo |
Iago Aspas | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Borja Iglesias |
| 95' |
Celta Vigo |
Bryan Zaragoza | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
Players
Getafe
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christantus Uche FW | 90 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0.79 | 0.56 | 1.37 |
| Mario Martín MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Davinchi DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Mauro Arambarri MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.07 | 0.09 |
| Diego Rico DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| David Soria GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.44 |
| Djené Dakonam DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.44 |
| Ismael Bekhoucha DR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.72 | 1.16 |
| Luis Milla MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.02 |
| Juan Iglesias DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.30 |
| Adrián Liso FW | 80 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.44 | 0.00 | 0.51 |
| Alex Sola Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Celta Vigo
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iago Aspas FWR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.46 | 0.08 | 0.55 |
| Óscar Mingueza DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.08 | 0.35 | 0.44 |
| Marcos Alonso DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.35 |
| Ilaix Moriba MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.44 |
| Javier Rodríguez DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.37 |
| Ionut Radu GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Yoel Lago DC | 84 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.34 |
| Ferrán Jutglà FW | 69 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Williot Swedberg FWL | 59 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.34 |
| Mihailo Ristic DML | 59 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.41 |
| Fran Beltrán MC | 59 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.34 |
| Bryan Zaragoza Sub | 31 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Hugo Sotelo Sub | 31 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Jones El Abdellaoui Sub | 31 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.12 |
| Borja Iglesias Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.12 |
| Pablo Durán Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 |