Celta Vigo v Leganes — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 8 March 2025 · ESP-La Liga · 2425
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
7 – 12
On target
4 – 6
Shots in box
6 – 8
xG per shot
0.15 – 0.08
Set-piece xG
0.00 – 0.15
Goals − xG
+0.93 – -0.00
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Celta Vigo win
56.2%
Draw
22.8%
Leganes win
20.9%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Celta Vigo are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 7.6 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWLDWDLLDD last 10
scored 10
from 9.5 xG
conceded 10
from 17.6 xG
Leganes are conceding fewer than expected — 2.8 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LDLDDDWLWW last 10
scored 13
from 13.3 xG
conceded 13
from 15.8 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.85–1.04 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Celta Vigo 1.07 xGLeganes 1.00 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Celta Vigo attacking right
Leganes attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7' |
 Celta Vigo |
Alfon | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Borja Iglesias |
| 18' |
 Leganes |
Valentin Rosier | 0.43 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Juan Cruz |
| 25' |
Celta Vigo |
Óscar Mingueza | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Alfon |
| 27' |
Leganes |
Óscar Rodríguez | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Sergio González |
| 30' |
Leganes |
Diego García | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Javi Hernández |
| 31' |
Leganes |
Renato Tapia | 0.07 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Matija Nastasic |
| 35' |
Celta Vigo |
Borja Iglesias | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Iago Aspas |
| 45' |
Celta Vigo |
Alfon | 0.41 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Borja Iglesias |
| 48' |
Leganes |
Diego García | 0.01 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Juan Cruz |
| 48' |
Leganes |
Diego García | 0.08 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Óscar Rodríguez |
| 50' |
Celta Vigo |
Sergio Carreira | 0.31 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Alfon |
| 55' |
Leganes |
Valentin Rosier | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Juan Cruz |
| 57' |
Celta Vigo |
Borja Iglesias | 0.13 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Iago Aspas |
| 71' |
Leganes |
Miguel De la Fuente | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Juan Cruz |
| 72' |
Leganes |
Miguel De la Fuente | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 77' |
Celta Vigo |
Alfon | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Fran Beltrán |
| 90' |
Leganes |
Javi Hernández | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Duk |
| 94' |
Leganes |
Julián Chicco | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Duk |
| 95' |
Leganes |
Raba | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
Players
Celta Vigo
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alfon FWL | 90 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0.51 | 0.37 | 1.02 |
| Sergio Carreira DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.31 | 0.00 | 0.31 |
| Óscar Mingueza DML | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.49 |
| Carl Starfelt DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.98 |
| Vicente Guaita GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.31 |
| Marcos Alonso DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.04 |
| Borja Iglesias FW | 88 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0.19 | 0.48 | 0.98 |
| Hugo Sotelo MC | 80 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| Jaílson DC | 79 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.98 |
| Damián Rodríguez MC | 63 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.61 |
| Iago Aspas FWR | 63 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.19 | 0.60 |
| Iker Losada Sub | 27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Fran Beltrán Sub | 27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| Ilaix Moriba Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Javier Rodríguez Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Pablo Durán Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Leganes
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valentin Rosier DR | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.45 | 0.00 | 0.53 |
| Javi Hernández DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.04 | 0.16 |
| Renato Tapia DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Óscar Rodríguez ML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.08 | 0.06 |
| Juan Cruz MR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0.00 | 0.49 | 0.53 |
| Yvan Neyou MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Marko Dmitrovic GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Sergio González DC | 87 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.12 |
| Seydouba Cissé MC | 72 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Diego García FW | 71 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Matija Nastasic DC | 50 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.04 |
| Jorge Sáenz Sub | 40 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Miguel De la Fuente Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.24 |
| Raba Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Duk Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| Julián Chicco Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.15 |