Celta Vigo v Osasuna — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Friday 6 February 2026 · ESP-La Liga · 2526
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
18 – 8
On target
4 – 2
Shots in box
12 – 6
xG per shot
0.11 – 0.13
Set-piece xG
0.97 – 0.82
Goals − xG
-1.04 – +1.00
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Celta Vigo win
51.5%
Draw
26.1%
Osasuna win
22.4%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Celta Vigo are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 7.6 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWLDWDLLDD last 10
scored 10
from 9.5 xG
conceded 10
from 17.6 xG
Osasuna are finishing below their chances — 3.1 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 4.3 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
WLLLLLDWWL last 10
scored 12
from 15.1 xG
conceded 17
from 12.8 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.60–0.97 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.53–1.06 | 1-1 12% | 48% | 51% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Celta Vigo 2.04 xGOsasuna 1.00 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Celta Vigo attacking right
Osasuna attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4' |
 Celta Vigo |
Javier Rodríguez | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Miguel Román |
| 5' |
Celta Vigo |
Javier Rodríguez | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Sergio Carreira |
| 14' |
Celta Vigo |
Hugo Álvarez | 0.35 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Miguel Román |
| 15' |
Celta Vigo |
Ilaix Moriba | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Hugo Álvarez |
| 18' |
Celta Vigo |
Borja Iglesias | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Javier Rueda |
| 34' |
Celta Vigo |
Marcos Alonso | 0.12 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Miguel Román |
| 34' |
 Osasuna |
Ante Budimir | 0.13 | Open Play | — | Goal | Raul Moro |
| 47' |
Celta Vigo |
Borja Iglesias | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Fernando López |
| 52' |
Celta Vigo |
Borja Iglesias | 0.74 | Right Foot | Goal | — | |
| 54' |
Celta Vigo |
Borja Iglesias | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Hugo Álvarez |
| 54' |
Celta Vigo |
Miguel Román | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Javier Rodríguez |
| 55' |
Osasuna |
Raul Moro | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Iker Muñoz |
| 57' |
Osasuna |
Rubén García | 0.06 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 58' |
Osasuna |
Aimar Oroz | 0.04 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Alejandro Catena |
| 61' |
Osasuna |
Ante Budimir | 0.06 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 65' |
Celta Vigo |
Javier Rueda | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Borja Iglesias |
| 67' |
Osasuna |
Raul Moro | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Javi Galán |
| 73' |
Celta Vigo |
Williot Swedberg | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Sergio Carreira |
| 74' |
Celta Vigo |
Ilaix Moriba | 0.01 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 77' |
Osasuna |
Asier Osambela | 0.09 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Raul Moro |
| 78' |
Osasuna |
Raul García | 0.56 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Goal | Alejandro Catena |
| 84' |
Celta Vigo |
Williot Swedberg | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Ilaix Moriba |
| 85' |
Celta Vigo |
Ferrán Jutglà | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Iago Aspas |
| 85' |
Celta Vigo |
Marcos Alonso | 0.04 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Iago Aspas |
| 88' |
Celta Vigo |
Iago Aspas | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Jones El Abdellaoui |
| 97' |
Celta Vigo |
Carl Starfelt | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Ferrán Jutglà |
Players
Celta Vigo
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcos Alonso DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.00 | 0.51 |
| Javier Rodríguez DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.01 | 0.26 |
| Ilaix Moriba MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.06 | 0.62 |
| Carl Starfelt DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.24 |
| Miguel Román MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.01 | 0.53 | 0.77 |
| Ionut Radu GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Fernando López FWR | 85 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.20 |
| Sergio Carreira DML | 85 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.18 |
| Borja Iglesias FW | 77 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.94 | 0.07 | 0.32 |
| Hugo Álvarez FWL | 69 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.35 | 0.16 | 0.63 |
| Javier Rueda DMR | 69 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.10 | 0.17 |
| Williot Swedberg Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Óscar Mingueza Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.23 |
| Ferrán Jutglà Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| Iago Aspas Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.08 | 0.08 | 0.23 |
| Jones El Abdellaoui Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.08 |
Osasuna
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raul Moro AML | 90 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0.06 | 0.22 | 0.18 |
| Aimar Oroz AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Valentin Rosier DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Sergio Herrera GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Javi Galán DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.06 |
| Iker Muñoz DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.06 |
| Víctor Muñoz AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Alejandro Catena DC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.60 | 0.04 |
| Ante Budimir FW | 72 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.19 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Rubén García DMC | 72 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jorge Herrando Sub | 60 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Enzo Boyomo DC | 30 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Raul García Sub | 18 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.56 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Asier Osambela Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Moi Gómez Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Abel Bretones Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |