Celta Vigo v Racing Santander — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 20 September 2026 · ESP-La Liga · 2627

La Liga xG Prediction generated 8 Sep 2026, 11:44 UTC

Celta Vigo

15:00 UTC

Racing Santander

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 8 Sep, 07:54 · 295h before kick-off

Celta Vigo win

31.0%

model 34.6%

Draw

29.4%

model 27.2%

Racing Santander win

39.5%

model 38.2%

312940

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (567 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 12.9%
0-1 10.8%
1-0 10.2%
0-0 8.5%
1-2 8.2%

Goals

Over 2.5	44.6%	Under 2.5	55.4%
BTTS yes	50.1%	BTTS no	49.9%
Celta Vigo 1+	69.7%	Celta Vigo 2+	33.5%
Racing Santander 1+	71.9%	Racing Santander 2+	36.2%

Expected goals 1.19 – 1.27. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

99/100

Data quality

100/100

Model agreement

99%

★ Best pick

Racing Santander leading at HT (DNB)

DNB half time · usually 38%

70.9% fair odds 1.41

strong signal · 299 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Under 2.5 in 1st half

Over/Under 1HT · usually 90%

84.0% fair odds 1.19

moderate signal · 579 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Racing Santander carry the stronger rating, 1592 Elo against 1507.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Racing Santander have an estimated 39.5% win probability, against 31.0% for Celta Vigo and 29.4% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.19 for Celta Vigo and 1.27 for Racing Santander.

Why Celta Vigo

At home Celta Vigo average 1.26 xG a match.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 29.4%. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.19 to 1.27. Draws run at 25% in this competition.

Why Racing Santander can win

Racing Santander carry the stronger rating, 1592 Elo against 1507.

Key players

Celta Vigo's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Borja Iglesias (0.32), Hugo Gonzalez (0.26), Ferrán Jutglà (0.24). Racing Santander's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Andrés Martín (0.43), Yassir Zabiri (0.26), Iñigo Vicente (0.24).

Availability

2 of Celta Vigo's top three contributors did not start their last match. 1 of Racing Santander's top three contributors did not start their last match.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Celta Vigo: 56% possession, 8.4 shots a match, 12.8 faced, 0.21 xG a match from set pieces. Racing Santander: 48% possession, 13.2 shots a match, 14.0 faced, 0.12 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-08 10:52 · team_stats 2026-09-08 06:03 · availability 2026-09-08 11:54 · prediction 2026-09-08 11:44 ·

Racing Santander are the model's most likely outcome at 39.5%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 12.9%. Confidence 99/100, data quality 100/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Celta Vigo are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 7.6 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.

WWLDWDLLDD last 10 scored 10 from 9.5 xG conceded 10 from 17.6 xG

Racing Santander are conceding more than the chances against them merit — 4.0 goals above expected, which tends to correct.

DLWL last 4 scored 7 from 6.3 xG conceded 8 from 4.0 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	352738	1.19–1.27	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	352737	1.20–1.24	1-1 13%	44%	50%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Racing Santander to win	38.2%	37.5%	28.1%	1.33×	2.67
Celta Vigo to win	34.6%	31.4%	46.8%	0.67×	3.18
Draw	27.2%	27.3%	25.2%	1.09×	3.66

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Racing Santander & not both score	21.8%	21.5%	14.6%	1.48×	4.65
Celta Vigo & not both score	19.6%	18.2%	25.3%	0.72×	5.49
Draw & both teams score	18.7%	18.2%	20.2%	0.90×	5.49
Racing Santander & both teams score	16.4%	18.2%	13.7%	1.33×	5.49
Celta Vigo & both teams score	15.0%	12.6%	21.7%	0.58×	7.91
Draw & not both score	8.5%	7.7%	5.1%	1.50×	13.04

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Racing Santander & under 3.5	28.8%	26.5%	21.7%	1.22×	3.78
Racing Santander & over 1.5	27.4%	26.5%	21.2%	1.25×	3.78
Celta Vigo & under 3.5	26.4%	26.5%	33.0%	0.80×	3.78
Celta Vigo & over 1.5	24.4%	21.8%	34.1%	0.64×	4.59
Draw & under 2.5	21.4%	21.8%	20.1%	1.09×	4.59
Draw & under 3.5	21.4%	21.8%	20.1%	1.09×	4.59
Racing Santander & over 2.5	20.5%	21.8%	16.7%	1.31×	4.59
Celta Vigo & over 2.5	18.3%	17.7%	28.0%	0.63×	5.66
Draw & over 1.5	18.7%	17.7%	20.2%	0.88×	5.66
Racing Santander & under 2.5	17.7%	17.7%	11.6%	1.53×	5.66
Celta Vigo & under 2.5	16.3%	17.7%	18.9%	0.93×	5.66
Celta Vigo & under 1.5	10.2%	12.5%	12.8%	0.97×	8.03
Racing Santander & under 1.5	10.8%	12.5%	7.1%	1.76×	8.03
Racing Santander & over 3.5	9.4%	7.6%	6.6%	1.15×	13.17
Celta Vigo & over 3.5	8.2%	7.6%	13.9%	0.54×	13.17
Draw & under 1.5	8.5%	7.6%	5.1%	1.49×	13.17
Draw & over 2.5	5.8%	7.6%	5.2%	1.45×	13.17
Draw & over 3.5	5.8%	7.6%	5.2%	1.45×	13.17

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Racing Santander (1UP)	53.6%	53.3%	47.1%	1.13×	1.88
Celta Vigo (1UP)	50.4%	53.1%	63.2%	0.84×	1.88

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Racing Santander (2UP)	38.2%	37.6%	29.7%	1.27×	2.66
Celta Vigo (2UP)	34.6%	36.3%	48.7%	0.75×	2.75

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half drawn	43.1%	40.9%	33.0%	1.24×	2.45
Celta Vigo to win 2nd half	38.4%	36.9%	39.5%	0.93×	2.71
Racing Santander to win 2nd half	18.5%	20.8%	27.7%	0.75×	4.81

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Racing Santander (+2.5)	95.3%	96.6%	90.0%	1.07×	1.04
Racing Santander (+1.5)	85.5%	87.4%	79.2%	1.10×	1.14
Racing Santander (+0.5)	65.4%	68.0%	53.2%	1.28×	1.47
Celta Vigo (+0.5)	61.8%	62.8%	71.9%	0.87×	1.59
Racing Santander (-0.5)	38.2%	37.2%	28.1%	1.32×	2.69
Celta Vigo (-0.5)	34.6%	32.0%	46.8%	0.68×	3.13
Celta Vigo (-1.5)	14.5%	12.6%	20.8%	0.61×	7.93
Celta Vigo (-2.5)	4.7%	3.4%	10.0%	0.34×	29.49

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Racing Santander to concede	69.7%	71.6%	80.4%	0.89×	1.40
Racing Santander clean sheet	30.3%	28.4%	19.6%	1.45×	3.52

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Racing Santander clean sheet in 1st half	61.5%	62.0%	51.9%	1.19×	1.61
Racing Santander to concede in 1st half	38.5%	38.0%	48.1%	0.79×	2.63

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Racing Santander under 6.5 corners	80.3%	81.4%	—	—	1.23
Racing Santander over 2.5 corners	76.8%	75.9%	—	—	1.32
Racing Santander under 5.5 corners	69.5%	67.5%	—	—	1.48
Racing Santander over 3.5 corners	60.7%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Racing Santander under 4.5 corners	55.5%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Racing Santander over 4.5 corners	44.5%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Racing Santander under 3.5 corners	39.3%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Racing Santander over 5.5 corners	30.5%	32.5%	—	—	3.08
Racing Santander under 2.5 corners	23.2%	24.1%	—	—	4.16
Racing Santander over 6.5 corners	19.7%	18.6%	—	—	5.39

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Racing Santander under 3.5 goals	96.0%	97.3%	97.3%	1.00×	1.03
Racing Santander under 2.5 goals	86.4%	87.2%	90.0%	0.97×	1.15
Racing Santander over 0.5 goals	71.9%	71.3%	69.7%	1.02×	1.40
Racing Santander under 1.5 goals	63.8%	63.7%	68.1%	0.94×	1.57
Racing Santander over 1.5 goals	36.2%	36.3%	31.9%	1.14×	2.76
Racing Santander under 0.5 goals	28.1%	28.7%	30.3%	0.95×	3.48
Racing Santander over 2.5 goals	13.6%	12.8%	10.0%	1.29×	7.80
Racing Santander over 3.5 goals	4.0%	2.7%	2.7%	0.97×	37.44

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Racing Santander under 1.5 in 1st half	78.4%	73.9%	93.3%	0.79×	1.35
Racing Santander over 0.5 in 1st half	58.1%	57.2%	36.6%	1.56×	1.75
Racing Santander under 0.5 in 1st half	41.9%	42.8%	63.4%	0.67×	2.34
Racing Santander over 1.5 in 1st half	21.6%	26.1%	6.7%	3.87×	3.84

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Celta Vigo (away no bet)	55.9%	58.5%	65.1%	0.90×	1.71
Draw (away no bet)	44.1%	41.5%	34.9%	1.19×	2.41

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Racing Santander even goals	54.0%	53.5%	53.9%	0.99×	1.87
Racing Santander odd goals	46.0%	46.5%	46.1%	1.01×	2.15

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	88.1%	86.9%	86.9%	1.00×	1.15
Both halves over 1.5 goals	11.9%	13.1%	13.1%	1.00×	7.63

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	57.7%	60.3%	62.4%	0.97×	1.66
Both halves under 1.5 goals	42.3%	39.7%	37.6%	1.06×	2.52

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	50.1%	52.1%	52.3%	1.00×	1.92
Racing Santander to score 2+ in a row	28.9%	27.1%	23.6%	1.15×	3.69
Celta Vigo to score 2+ in a row	26.2%	27.1%	34.3%	0.79×	3.69
Either team to score 3+ in a row	15.9%	17.3%	18.9%	0.92×	5.77
Racing Santander to score 3+ in a row	8.7%	7.8%	6.4%	1.23×	12.75
Celta Vigo to score 3+ in a row	7.4%	7.8%	13.0%	0.60×	12.79

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Celta Vigo corners (+3.5)	86.9%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Celta Vigo corners (+2.5)	80.3%	79.7%	—	—	1.25
Racing Santander corners (+3.5)	79.3%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
Celta Vigo corners (+1.5)	71.7%	70.7%	—	—	1.41
Racing Santander corners (+2.5)	70.7%	70.7%	—	—	1.41
Racing Santander corners (+1.5)	60.6%	61.9%	—	—	1.62
Celta Vigo corners (-1.5)	39.4%	38.1%	—	—	2.62
Celta Vigo corners (-2.5)	29.3%	29.3%	—	—	3.41
Racing Santander corners (-1.5)	28.3%	29.3%	—	—	3.41
Celta Vigo corners (-3.5)	20.7%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
Racing Santander corners (-2.5)	19.7%	20.3%	—	—	4.93
Racing Santander corners (-3.5)	13.1%	15.5%	—	—	6.45

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	42.5%	38.6%	—	—	2.59
9-11 corners	29.8%	31.2%	—	—	3.20
12+ corners	27.7%	31.2%	—	—	3.20

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	79.8%	76.5%	—	—	1.31
Under 11.5 corners	72.3%	72.6%	—	—	1.38
Over 7.5 corners	68.3%	67.7%	—	—	1.48
Under 10.5 corners	63.4%	63.4%	—	—	1.58
Over 8.5 corners	57.5%	57.8%	—	—	1.73
Under 9.5 corners	53.3%	53.3%	—	—	1.88
Over 9.5 corners	46.7%	46.7%	—	—	2.14
Under 8.5 corners	42.5%	42.2%	—	—	2.37
Over 10.5 corners	36.6%	36.6%	—	—	2.73
Under 7.5 corners	31.7%	32.3%	—	—	3.10
Over 11.5 corners	27.7%	27.4%	—	—	3.66
Over 12.5 corners	20.2%	23.5%	—	—	4.26

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.8%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	12.9%	11.2%	15.1%	0.75×	8.90
0-1	10.8%	11.2%	7.1%	1.58×	8.90
1-0	10.2%	11.2%	12.8%	0.88×	8.90
0-0	8.5%	7.4%	5.1%	1.45×	13.48
0-2	6.9%	7.4%	4.6%	1.61×	13.49
1-2	8.2%	7.4%	8.3%	0.89×	13.48
2-0	6.1%	7.4%	6.2%	1.19×	13.49
2-1	7.7%	7.4%	9.7%	0.76×	13.48
0-3	2.9%	1.7%	2.0%	0.86×	58.10
0-4	0.9%	1.7%	0.9%	1.97×	58.11
1-3	3.5%	1.7%	1.9%	0.92×	58.10
1-4	1.1%	1.7%	0.5%	3.45×	58.11
2-2	4.9%	1.7%	4.4%	0.39×	58.10
2-3	2.1%	1.7%	2.2%	0.77×	58.11
2-4	0.7%	1.7%	0.5%	3.45×	58.11
3-0	2.4%	1.7%	4.6%	0.37×	58.10
3-1	3.1%	1.7%	3.6%	0.48×	58.10
3-2	1.9%	1.7%	3.2%	0.53×	58.11
3-3	0.8%	1.7%	1.0%	1.73×	58.11
3-4	0.3%	1.7%	0.4%	4.61×	58.11
4-0	0.7%	1.7%	1.6%	1.06×	58.11
4-1	0.9%	1.7%	2.0%	0.86×	58.11
4-2	0.6%	1.7%	1.4%	1.26×	58.11
4-3	0.2%	1.7%	0.7%	2.30×	58.11
4-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.1%	13.82×	58.11
Any other score	1.7%	1.7%	3.0%	0.58×	58.11

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Racing Santander leading at HT (DNB)	68.6%	70.9%	37.7%	1.88×	1.41
Celta Vigo leading at HT (DNB)	31.4%	29.1%	62.3%	0.47×	3.44

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Celta Vigo or Racing Santander (12)	72.8%	72.7%	74.8%	0.97×	1.38
Racing Santander or draw (X2)	65.4%	68.6%	53.2%	1.29×	1.46
Celta Vigo or draw (1X)	61.8%	62.5%	71.9%	0.87×	1.60

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Racing Santander or draw at HT	80.5%	83.4%	64.5%	1.29×	1.20
Celta Vigo or Racing Santander at HT	62.1%	62.7%	56.8%	1.10×	1.60
Celta Vigo or draw at HT	57.4%	57.2%	78.5%	0.73×	1.75

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Racing Santander or draw (1UP)	65.4%	70.7%	60.1%	1.18×	1.42
Celta Vigo or draw (1UP)	61.8%	69.7%	78.2%	0.89×	1.43

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Celta Vigo or draw in 2nd half	81.5%	79.2%	72.3%	1.10×	1.26
Racing Santander or draw in 2nd half	61.6%	63.1%	60.5%	1.04×	1.58
Celta Vigo or Racing Santander in 2nd half	56.9%	59.1%	67.0%	0.88×	1.69

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	64.7%	60.2%	62.2%	0.97×	1.66
Neither half drawn	35.3%	39.8%	37.8%	1.05×	2.51

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Racing Santander (DNB)	52.5%	51.5%	37.5%	1.37×	1.94
Celta Vigo (DNB)	47.5%	48.5%	62.5%	0.78×	2.06

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Racing Santander to score first	47.1%	46.1%	39.6%	1.16×	2.17
Celta Vigo to score first	44.3%	44.3%	55.4%	0.80×	2.26
No goal scored	8.5%	6.3%	5.1%	1.24×	15.82

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	50.1%	51.8%	55.3%	0.94×	1.93
Not both teams to score	49.9%	48.2%	44.7%	1.08×	2.08

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both score & under 2.5	42.5%	41.6%	35.4%	1.18×	2.40
Both score & over 2.5	37.1%	38.0%	40.3%	0.94×	2.63
Both score & under 2.5	12.9%	11.9%	15.1%	0.79×	8.41
Not both score & over 2.5	7.5%	8.5%	9.5%	0.89×	11.82

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	87.9%	85.9%	86.2%	1.00×	1.16
Both teams to score 2+	12.1%	14.1%	13.8%	1.02×	7.11

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	83.4%	73.4%	71.4%	1.03×	1.36
Both teams to score in 2nd half	16.6%	26.6%	28.6%	0.93×	3.76

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	64.7%	61.4%	60.3%	1.02×	1.63
Both score 1st half only	18.7%	18.8%	11.2%	1.67×	5.32
Both score 2nd half only	12.9%	11.9%	23.1%	0.52×	8.39
Both score in both halves	3.7%	4.6%	5.6%	0.82×	21.71

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	77.6%	79.5%	83.3%	0.96×	1.26
Both teams to score by HT	22.4%	20.5%	16.7%	1.22×	4.89

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half without a goal	50.4%	52.5%	45.2%	1.16×	1.91
A goal in each half	49.6%	47.5%	54.8%	0.87×	2.11

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	47.1%	46.6%	49.8%	0.94×	2.15
0-1 goals	29.5%	27.3%	24.8%	1.10×	3.66
4-6 goals	22.1%	23.3%	23.4%	1.00×	4.29
7+ goals	1.3%	2.0%	2.2%	0.89×	50.28

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Racing Santander to score exactly 1	35.7%	36.0%	38.0%	0.95×	2.78
Racing Santander to score exactly 0	28.1%	27.4%	30.3%	0.90×	3.66
Racing Santander to score exactly 2	22.6%	23.1%	22.0%	1.05×	4.32
Racing Santander to score 3+	13.6%	12.9%	10.0%	1.30×	7.74

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Celta Vigo to score exactly 1	36.2%	36.5%	38.4%	0.95×	2.74
Celta Vigo to score exactly 0	30.3%	32.1%	19.6%	1.64×	3.12
Celta Vigo to score exactly 2	21.6%	22.9%	22.7%	1.01×	4.37
Celta Vigo to score 3+	11.9%	13.2%	19.7%	0.67×	7.58

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Racing Santander leading at HT	42.6%	42.8%	21.5%	1.99×	2.34
Draw at HT	37.9%	37.3%	43.2%	0.86×	2.68
Celta Vigo leading at HT	19.5%	16.6%	35.5%	0.47×	6.04

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Racing Santander -1: 1	61.8%	61.9%	—	—	1.62
Racing Santander -1: X	21.4%	23.2%	—	—	4.30
Racing Santander -1: 2	16.8%	17.8%	—	—	5.61

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Racing Santander (0:1)	65.4%	64.7%	53.2%	1.22×	1.55
Draw (0:1)	20.1%	23.5%	26.2%	0.90×	4.25
Celta Vigo (0:1)	14.5%	13.2%	20.8%	0.63×	7.59

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Racing Santander (0:2)	85.5%	86.7%	79.2%	1.09×	1.15
Draw (0:2)	9.8%	7.7%	11.0%	0.71×	12.94
Celta Vigo (0:2)	4.7%	3.5%	10.0%	0.35×	28.76

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Racing Santander (0:3)	95.3%	96.7%	90.0%	1.07×	1.04
Draw (0:3)	3.5%	2.6%	7.1%	0.36×	38.96
Celta Vigo (0:3)	1.2%	2.6%	3.0%	0.86×	38.99

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Racing Santander (0:4)	98.8%	97.7%	97.0%	1.01×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	1.0%	1.4%	2.4%	0.60×	70.59
Celta Vigo (0:4)	0.3%	1.4%	0.7%	1.90×	70.61

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Celta Vigo (1:0)	61.8%	64.5%	71.9%	0.90×	1.55
Draw (1:0)	21.4%	21.9%	17.7%	1.24×	4.56
Racing Santander (1:0)	16.8%	17.5%	10.6%	1.66×	5.70

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Celta Vigo (2:0)	83.2%	83.6%	89.4%	0.93×	1.20
Draw (2:0)	11.1%	11.5%	6.8%	1.68×	8.67
Racing Santander (2:0)	5.8%	6.7%	3.9%	1.73×	14.99

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1st half highest scoring	42.5%	48.3%	26.3%	1.83×	2.07
2nd half highest scoring	30.5%	26.3%	51.3%	0.51×	3.80
Halves equal	27.0%	26.2%	22.5%	1.17×	3.82

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Celta Vigo to concede	71.9%	72.0%	69.7%	1.03×	1.39
Celta Vigo clean sheet	28.1%	28.0%	30.3%	0.93×	3.57

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Celta Vigo to concede in 1st half	58.1%	57.1%	36.6%	1.56×	1.75
Celta Vigo clean sheet in 1st half	41.9%	42.9%	63.4%	0.68×	2.33

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Celta Vigo over 2.5 corners	82.3%	80.9%	—	—	1.24
Celta Vigo under 6.5 corners	73.2%	71.9%	—	—	1.39
Celta Vigo over 3.5 corners	68.3%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
Celta Vigo under 5.5 corners	61.2%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
Celta Vigo over 4.5 corners	53.1%	52.8%	—	—	1.90
Celta Vigo under 4.5 corners	46.9%	47.2%	—	—	2.12
Celta Vigo over 5.5 corners	38.8%	37.7%	—	—	2.65
Celta Vigo under 3.5 corners	31.7%	33.3%	—	—	3.00
Celta Vigo over 6.5 corners	26.8%	28.1%	—	—	3.56
Celta Vigo under 2.5 corners	17.7%	19.1%	—	—	5.25

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Celta Vigo under 3.5 goals	96.7%	96.6%	92.7%	1.04×	1.04
Celta Vigo under 2.5 goals	88.1%	87.5%	80.3%	1.09×	1.14
Celta Vigo over 0.5 goals	69.7%	68.4%	80.4%	0.85×	1.46
Celta Vigo under 1.5 goals	66.5%	68.4%	57.8%	1.18×	1.46
Celta Vigo over 1.5 goals	33.5%	31.6%	42.2%	0.75×	3.17
Celta Vigo under 0.5 goals	30.3%	31.6%	19.6%	1.61×	3.17
Celta Vigo over 2.5 goals	11.9%	12.5%	19.7%	0.64×	7.98
Celta Vigo over 3.5 goals	3.3%	3.4%	7.3%	0.47×	29.06

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Celta Vigo under 1.5 in 1st half	91.4%	93.8%	86.0%	1.09×	1.07
Celta Vigo under 0.5 in 1st half	61.5%	61.8%	51.9%	1.19×	1.62
Celta Vigo over 0.5 in 1st half	38.5%	38.2%	48.1%	0.80×	2.62
Celta Vigo over 1.5 in 1st half	8.6%	6.2%	14.0%	0.44×	16.15

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Racing Santander (home no bet)	58.4%	56.1%	52.8%	1.06×	1.78
Draw (home no bet)	41.6%	43.9%	47.2%	0.93×	2.28

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Celta Vigo even goals	54.6%	50.9%	47.4%	1.07×	1.96
Celta Vigo odd goals	45.4%	49.1%	52.6%	0.93×	2.04

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	25.8%	26.0%	32.1%	0.81×	3.85
HT 0-1	22.4%	22.2%	16.2%	1.37×	4.51
HT 1-0	12.5%	10.9%	22.7%	0.48×	9.14
HT 1-1	10.9%	10.9%	10.1%	1.08×	9.15
HT 0-2	9.7%	8.0%	3.1%	2.58×	12.44
Any other HT score	7.1%	8.0%	4.5%	1.78×	12.47
HT 1-2	4.7%	2.5%	1.5%	1.65×	40.33
HT 2-0	3.1%	2.5%	6.2%	0.40×	40.41
HT 2-1	2.7%	2.5%	3.2%	0.76×	40.43
HT 2-2	1.2%	2.5%	1.2%	1.98×	40.50

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Racing Santander at HT / Racing Santander at FT	30.7%	33.4%	12.9%	2.60×	3.00
Celta Vigo at HT / Celta Vigo at FT	16.6%	17.2%	26.5%	0.65×	5.82
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	16.3%	17.2%	14.0%	1.23×	5.82
Draw at HT / Celta Vigo at FT	14.5%	12.2%	18.0%	0.68×	8.19
Racing Santander at HT / Draw at FT	8.5%	6.4%	6.1%	1.05×	15.53
Draw at HT / Racing Santander at FT	7.0%	6.4%	11.5%	0.56×	15.56
Racing Santander at HT / Celta Vigo at FT	3.5%	3.7%	2.7%	1.33×	27.30
Celta Vigo at HT / Draw at FT	2.4%	3.7%	5.2%	0.70×	27.33
Celta Vigo at HT / Racing Santander at FT	0.5%	3.7%	4.0%	0.91×	27.38

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Racing Santander to score last	47.1%	46.3%	39.3%	1.18×	2.16
Celta Vigo to score last	44.3%	42.7%	55.7%	0.77×	2.34
No goal scored	8.5%	6.3%	5.1%	1.24×	15.82

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	91.5%	93.6%	94.9%	0.99×	1.07
Racing Santander to lead by 1 at any time	53.6%	50.9%	47.1%	1.08×	1.97
Celta Vigo to lead by 1 at any time	50.4%	50.8%	63.2%	0.80×	1.97
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	41.6%	41.3%	41.6%	0.99×	2.42
Racing Santander to lead by 2 at any time	22.2%	21.3%	15.5%	1.38×	4.69
Celta Vigo to lead by 2 at any time	19.6%	17.3%	26.5%	0.65×	5.77
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	13.3%	11.0%	16.7%	0.66×	9.09
Racing Santander to lead by 3 at any time	7.3%	7.6%	4.6%	1.64×	13.18
Celta Vigo to lead by 3 at any time	6.1%	7.6%	12.2%	0.62×	13.21

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Celta Vigo most corners	50.4%	52.0%	—	—	1.92
Racing Santander most corners	38.5%	39.4%	—	—	2.54
Corners level	11.1%	10.4%	—	—	9.63

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	87.5%	87.2%	89.2%	0.98×	1.15
1-4 goals	81.1%	82.0%	81.2%	1.01×	1.22
2-6 goals	69.1%	68.2%	73.1%	0.93×	1.47
1-3 goals	68.1%	68.2%	69.5%	0.98×	1.47
2-5 goals	66.5%	68.2%	69.5%	0.98×	1.47
2-4 goals	60.1%	62.7%	61.5%	1.02×	1.60
1-2 goals	46.9%	47.4%	45.3%	1.04×	2.11
2-3 goals	47.1%	47.4%	49.8%	0.95×	2.11
3-6 goals	43.3%	43.7%	47.6%	0.92×	2.29
3-5 goals	40.7%	43.7%	44.0%	0.99×	2.29
3-4 goals	34.2%	34.6%	36.0%	0.96×	2.89
4-6 goals	22.1%	23.8%	23.4%	1.02×	4.20
4-5 goals	19.5%	18.8%	19.8%	0.95×	5.31
5-6 goals	9.1%	8.9%	11.7%	0.76×	11.18
7+ goals	1.3%	2.2%	2.2%	1.00×	44.61

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Celta Vigo never behind	37.9%	47.4%	52.9%	0.90×	2.11
Racing Santander never behind	41.1%	46.2%	36.8%	1.26×	2.16

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even number of goals	50.4%	50.0%	46.3%	1.08×	2.00
Odd number of goals	49.6%	50.0%	53.7%	0.93×	2.00

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	53.3%	51.5%	53.6%	0.96×	1.94
Odd goals in 1st half	46.7%	48.5%	46.4%	1.04×	2.06

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	55.5%	51.5%	49.7%	1.04×	1.94
Odd goals in 2nd half	44.5%	48.5%	50.3%	0.96×	2.06

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 5.5 goals	96.1%	96.0%	94.1%	1.02×	1.04
Over 0.5 goals	91.5%	92.3%	94.9%	0.97×	1.08
Under 4.5 goals	89.6%	87.7%	86.2%	1.02×	1.14
Under 3.5 goals	76.6%	77.0%	74.5%	1.03×	1.30
Over 1.5 goals	70.5%	72.2%	75.2%	0.96×	1.39
Under 2.5 goals	55.4%	57.5%	50.3%	1.14×	1.74
Over 2.5 goals	44.6%	42.5%	49.7%	0.86×	2.35
Under 1.5 goals	29.5%	27.8%	24.8%	1.12×	3.60
Over 3.5 goals	23.4%	23.0%	25.5%	0.90×	4.35
Over 4.5 goals	10.4%	12.3%	13.8%	0.89×	8.14
Under 0.5 goals	8.5%	7.7%	5.1%	1.51×	12.95
Over 5.5 goals	3.9%	4.0%	5.9%	0.68×	25.25

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	98.7%	97.3%	97.7%	1.00×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	95.8%	97.3%	93.6%	1.04×	1.03
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	88.1%	86.7%	84.3%	1.03×	1.15
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	70.3%	71.7%	66.3%	1.08×	1.40
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	60.2%	62.0%	66.7%	0.93×	1.61
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	39.8%	38.0%	33.3%	1.14×	2.63
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	29.7%	28.3%	33.7%	0.84×	3.53
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	11.9%	13.3%	15.7%	0.85×	7.49
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	4.2%	2.7%	6.4%	0.43×	36.66
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	1.3%	2.7%	2.3%	1.17×	36.70

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	84.4%	84.0%	89.9%	0.93×	1.19
Over 0.5 in 1st half	74.2%	73.4%	67.9%	1.08×	1.36
Under 1.5 in 1st half	60.7%	64.2%	70.8%	0.91×	1.56
Over 1.5 in 1st half	39.3%	35.8%	29.2%	1.23×	2.79
Under 0.5 in 1st half	25.8%	26.6%	32.1%	0.83×	3.77
Over 2.5 in 1st half	15.6%	16.0%	10.1%	1.59×	6.24

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	90.0%	84.8%	79.7%	1.06×	1.18
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	69.8%	68.5%	53.7%	1.28×	1.46
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	66.9%	68.2%	81.8%	0.83×	1.47
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	33.1%	31.8%	18.2%	1.74×	3.15
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	30.3%	31.5%	46.3%	0.68×	3.17
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	10.0%	15.2%	20.4%	0.75×	6.58

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Racing Santander not to score in both halves	80.9%	81.2%	81.4%	1.00×	1.23
Celta Vigo not to score in both halves	80.5%	81.2%	73.7%	1.10×	1.23
Celta Vigo to score in both halves	19.5%	18.8%	26.3%	0.71×	5.32
Racing Santander to score in both halves	19.1%	18.8%	18.6%	1.01×	5.32

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	50.1%	54.4%	55.3%	0.98×	1.84
Only Racing Santander scores	21.8%	21.3%	14.6%	1.46×	4.71
Only Celta Vigo scores	19.6%	17.1%	25.3%	0.68×	5.83
Neither team scores	8.5%	7.2%	5.1%	1.40×	13.96

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	25.8%	25.0%	25.7%	0.97×	4.01
Exactly 1 goals	21.0%	22.3%	19.8%	1.13×	4.49
Exactly 3 goals	21.2%	22.3%	24.3%	0.92×	4.48
Exactly 4 goals	13.0%	12.3%	11.8%	1.04×	8.13
Exactly 0 goals	8.5%	7.8%	5.1%	1.52×	12.88
Exactly 5 goals	6.4%	7.8%	8.1%	0.96×	12.89
6 or more goals	3.9%	4.1%	5.9%	0.69×	24.66

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 2nd half	36.6%	38.4%	35.6%	1.08×	2.60
No goals in 2nd half	33.1%	34.3%	18.2%	1.88×	2.91
2+ goals in 2nd half	30.3%	34.3%	46.3%	0.74×	2.92

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Celta Vigo not to win both halves	92.5%	92.3%	88.1%	1.05×	1.08
Racing Santander not to win both halves	92.1%	92.2%	94.6%	0.97×	1.08
Racing Santander to win both halves	7.9%	7.8%	5.4%	1.44×	12.89
Celta Vigo to win both halves	7.5%	7.7%	11.9%	0.65×	12.91

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Racing Santander to win either half	53.2%	51.1%	43.8%	1.17×	1.96
Celta Vigo to win either half	50.4%	51.0%	63.0%	0.81×	1.96
Celta Vigo to win neither half	49.6%	49.0%	37.0%	1.32×	2.04
Racing Santander to win neither half	46.8%	48.9%	56.2%	0.87×	2.05

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Celta Vigo not to win to nil	80.4%	82.6%	74.7%	1.11×	1.21
Racing Santander not to win to nil	78.2%	78.7%	85.4%	0.92×	1.27
Racing Santander to win to nil	21.8%	21.3%	14.6%	1.46×	4.70
Celta Vigo to win to nil	19.6%	17.4%	25.3%	0.69×	5.76

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	27.2%	27.4%	25.2%	1.09×	3.65
Racing Santander by 1	21.4%	23.3%	17.7%	1.32×	4.29
Celta Vigo by 1	20.1%	23.3%	26.2%	0.89×	4.29
Racing Santander by 2	11.1%	11.8%	6.8%	1.73×	8.46
Celta Vigo by 2	9.8%	7.3%	11.0%	0.67×	13.65
Racing Santander by 3+	5.8%	7.3%	3.9%	1.90×	13.66
Celta Vigo by 3+	4.7%	3.0%	10.0%	0.30×	33.80