Celta Vigo v Rayo Vallecano — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 18 May 2025 · ESP-La Liga · 2425
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
24 – 7
On target
6 – 2
Shots in box
16 – 3
xG per shot
0.10 – 0.13
Set-piece xG
1.56 – 0.09
Goals − xG
-1.45 – +1.09
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Celta Vigo win
46.5%
Draw
26.0%
Rayo Vallecano win
27.6%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Celta Vigo are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 7.6 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWLDWDLLDD last 10
scored 10
from 9.5 xG
conceded 10
from 17.6 xG
Rayo Vallecano are finishing above their chances — 2.2 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off.
DWDDWWLDLW last 10
scored 18
from 15.8 xG
conceded 16
from 16.0 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.45–1.05 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.85–1.10 | 1-1 11% | 57% | 56% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Celta Vigo 2.45 xGRayo Vallecano 0.91 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Celta Vigo attacking right
Rayo Vallecano attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4' |
 Rayo Vallecano |
Florian Lejeune | 0.07 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 6' |
 Celta Vigo |
Pablo Durán | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 7' |
Celta Vigo |
Williot Swedberg | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Óscar Mingueza |
| 9' |
Celta Vigo |
Marcos Alonso | 0.74 | Left Foot | Goal | — | |
| 11' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Jorge De Frutos | 0.01 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 16' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Isi Palazón | 0.31 | Open Play | — | Goal | Alfonso Espino |
| 21' |
Celta Vigo |
Ilaix Moriba | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Fernando López |
| 21' |
Celta Vigo |
Mihailo Ristic | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Javier Rodríguez |
| 29' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Isi Palazón | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Alfonso Espino |
| 33' |
Celta Vigo |
Fernando López | 0.30 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Óscar Mingueza |
| 46' |
Celta Vigo |
Fernando López | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 46' |
Celta Vigo |
Pablo Durán | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Williot Swedberg |
| 46' |
Celta Vigo |
Pablo Durán | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 46' |
Celta Vigo |
Williot Swedberg | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Pablo Durán |
| 46' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Jorge De Frutos | 0.43 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Florian Lejeune |
| 49' |
Celta Vigo |
Ilaix Moriba | 0.01 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 49' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Adrián Embarba | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Isi Palazón |
| 50' |
Celta Vigo |
Williot Swedberg | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Mihailo Ristic |
| 53' |
Celta Vigo |
Marcos Alonso | 0.05 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 53' |
Celta Vigo |
Williot Swedberg | 0.01 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Mihailo Ristic |
| 56' |
Celta Vigo |
Fran Beltrán | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Pablo Durán |
| 57' |
Celta Vigo |
Fernando López | 0.08 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Marcos Alonso |
| 57' |
Celta Vigo |
Marcos Alonso | 0.07 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 65' |
Celta Vigo |
Marcos Alonso | 0.06 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Óscar Mingueza |
| 65' |
Celta Vigo |
Marcos Alonso | 0.10 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 65' |
Celta Vigo |
Mihailo Ristic | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Marcos Alonso |
| 66' |
Celta Vigo |
Fernando López | 0.06 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Óscar Mingueza |
| 70' |
Celta Vigo |
Óscar Mingueza | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Iago Aspas |
| 75' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Pep Chavarría | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Pedro Díaz |
| 94' |
Celta Vigo |
Fran Beltrán | 0.06 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 94' |
Celta Vigo |
Javier Rodríguez | 0.30 | Set Piece | — | Saved Shot | — |
Players
Celta Vigo
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Javier Rodríguez DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.30 | 0.02 | 0.45 |
| Fran Beltrán MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Óscar Mingueza DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0.04 | 0.49 | 0.43 |
| Ilaix Moriba MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.53 |
| Vicente Guaita GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Yoel Lago DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.21 |
| Marcos Alonso DC | 89 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 1.01 | 0.11 | 0.18 |
| Pablo Durán FW | 89 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.16 | 0.09 | 0.25 |
| Williot Swedberg AMC | 84 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.23 | 0.09 | 0.35 |
| Mihailo Ristic DML | 84 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.04 | 0.09 | 0.25 |
| Fernando López AMC | 74 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.56 | 0.02 | 0.44 |
| Iago Aspas Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| Alfon Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Hugo Álvarez Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Carlos Domínguez Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Borja Iglesias Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Rayo Vallecano
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jorge De Frutos FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.45 | 0.00 | 0.43 |
| Isi Palazón FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.33 | 0.03 | 0.38 |
| Florian Lejeune DC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.43 | 0.43 |
| Andrei Ratiu MR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.31 |
| Pathé Ciss DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.75 |
| Iván Balliu DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.46 |
| Augusto Batalla GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.31 |
| Unai López MC | 74 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.75 |
| Alfonso Espino DL | 66 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| Adrián Embarba ML | 65 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.36 |
| Óscar Valentín MC | 65 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Gerard Gumbau Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Álvaro García Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Pep Chavarría Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Pedro Díaz Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| Óscar Trejo Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |