Celta Vigo v Real Oviedo — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 12 April 2026 · ESP-La Liga · 2526
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
9 – 8
On target
6 – 5
Shots in box
5 – 8
xG per shot
0.14 – 0.28
Set-piece xG
0.00 – 1.23
Goals − xG
-1.27 – +0.77
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Celta Vigo win
59.3%
Draw
24.8%
Real Oviedo win
15.9%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Celta Vigo are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 7.6 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWLDWDLLDD last 10
scored 10
from 9.5 xG
conceded 10
from 17.6 xG
Real Oviedo are finishing below their chances — 3.3 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.6 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LWWDLLDLLL last 10
scored 8
from 11.3 xG
conceded 16
from 18.6 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.76–0.80 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.95–0.86 | 1-0 12% | 53% | 50% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Celta Vigo 1.27 xGReal Oviedo 2.23 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Celta Vigo attacking right
Real Oviedo attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1' |
 Celta Vigo |
Andrés Antañón | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Pablo Durán |
| 2' |
Celta Vigo |
Javier Rueda | 0.02 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Williot Swedberg |
| 3' |
 Real Oviedo |
Alberto Reina | 0.74 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 3' |
Real Oviedo |
Nacho Vidal | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 13' |
Celta Vigo |
Andrés Antañón | 0.28 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Marcos Alonso |
| 14' |
Celta Vigo |
Fernando López | 0.41 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 17' |
Celta Vigo |
Pablo Durán | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Javier Rueda |
| 25' |
Real Oviedo |
Ilyas Chaira | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Alberto Reina |
| 38' |
Real Oviedo |
Ilyas Chaira | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Dani Calvo |
| 44' |
Real Oviedo |
Federico Viñas | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Ilyas Chaira |
| 53' |
Real Oviedo |
Federico Viñas | 0.09 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 53' |
Real Oviedo |
Javier López | 0.53 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Alberto Reina |
| 56' |
Real Oviedo |
Federico Viñas | 0.62 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Goal | Thiago Fernández |
| 64' |
Celta Vigo |
Fernando López | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Iago Aspas |
| 77' |
Celta Vigo |
Iago Aspas | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Óscar Mingueza |
| 79' |
Celta Vigo |
Ferrán Jutglà | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 83' |
Celta Vigo |
Ferrán Jutglà | 0.38 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Óscar Mingueza |
Players
Celta Vigo
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fernando López MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.43 | 0.00 | 0.75 |
| Javier Rueda DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.04 | 0.34 |
| Marcos Alonso DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.28 | 0.79 |
| Joseph Aidoo DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Sergio Carreira DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.36 |
| Ionut Radu GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Pablo Durán FW | 63 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.09 |
| Williot Swedberg FWL | 63 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.37 |
| Álvaro Núñez DC | 63 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.34 |
| Andrés Antañón FWR | 49 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.32 | 0.00 | 0.34 |
| Matías Vecino MC | 49 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.34 |
| Iago Aspas Sub | 41 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.02 | 0.08 |
| Ilaix Moriba Sub | 41 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Ferrán Jutglà Sub | 27 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.41 | 0.00 | 0.41 |
| Borja Iglesias Sub | 27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Óscar Mingueza Sub | 27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.45 | 0.45 |
Real Oviedo
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Javier López DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.53 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Nacho Vidal DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.21 |
| Kwasi Sibo DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Eric Bailly DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Aarón GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Dani Calvo DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| Federico Viñas FW | 86 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.80 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Ilyas Chaira AMR | 86 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.10 | 0.19 |
| Alberto Reina AMC | 77 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.74 | 0.58 | 0.89 |
| Nicolás Fonseca DMC | 77 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Thiago Fernández AML | 69 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.62 | 0.04 |
| Haissem Hassan Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Santiago Colombatto Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| David Costas Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Rahim Alhassane Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Thiago Borbas Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |