Celta Vigo v Sevilla — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 10 May 2025 · ESP-La Liga · 2425
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
8 – 19
On target
4 – 10
Shots in box
5 – 13
xG per shot
0.12 – 0.14
Set-piece xG
0.04 – 1.49
Goals − xG
+2.04 – -0.63
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Celta Vigo win
48.8%
Draw
24.2%
Sevilla win
27.0%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Celta Vigo are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 7.6 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWLDWDLLDD last 10
scored 10
from 9.5 xG
conceded 10
from 17.6 xG
Sevilla are finishing above their chances — 3.9 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off.
LWWWLLWWLD last 10
scored 14
from 10.1 xG
conceded 13
from 13.4 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.63–1.14 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.66–0.89 | 1-0 13% | 47% | 48% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Celta Vigo 0.96 xGSevilla 2.63 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Celta Vigo attacking right
Sevilla attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2' |
 Celta Vigo |
Pablo Durán | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Damián Rodríguez |
| 12' |
 Sevilla |
Adrià Pedrosa | 0.23 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Dodi Lukebakio |
| 13' |
Sevilla |
Ramón Martínez | 0.13 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Adrià Pedrosa |
| 17' |
Celta Vigo |
Ilaix Moriba | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Damián Rodríguez |
| 18' |
Celta Vigo |
Ilaix Moriba | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Williot Swedberg |
| 22' |
Sevilla |
Nemanja Gudelj | 0.15 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 22' |
Sevilla |
Saúl Ñíguez | 0.08 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 33' |
Sevilla |
Peque | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 46' |
Celta Vigo |
Williot Swedberg | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Ilaix Moriba |
| 47' |
Celta Vigo |
Iago Aspas | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Williot Swedberg |
| 52' |
Sevilla |
Nemanja Gudelj | 0.74 | Right Foot | Goal | — | |
| 54' |
Sevilla |
Nemanja Gudelj | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Saúl Ñíguez |
| 59' |
Sevilla |
Nemanja Gudelj | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Suso |
| 62' |
Celta Vigo |
Fran Beltrán | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 64' |
Celta Vigo |
Óscar Mingueza | 0.33 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Fran Beltrán |
| 68' |
Sevilla |
Suso | 0.06 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 78' |
Sevilla |
Dodi Lukebakio | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Isaac Romero |
| 85' |
Sevilla |
Isaac Romero | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 89' |
Sevilla |
Kike Salas | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Chidera Ejuke |
| 89' |
Sevilla |
Ramón Martínez | 0.34 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Suso |
| 90' |
Celta Vigo |
Borja Iglesias | 0.32 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 92' |
Sevilla |
García Pascual | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 95' |
Sevilla |
Kike Salas | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Chidera Ejuke |
| 96' |
Sevilla |
Kike Salas | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Lucien Agoume |
| 97' |
Sevilla |
Isaac Romero | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Suso |
| 97' |
Sevilla |
Kike Salas | 0.53 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 98' |
Sevilla |
Kike Salas | 0.01 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Chidera Ejuke |
Players
Celta Vigo
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ilaix Moriba MC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.19 | 0.04 | 0.23 |
| Pablo Durán MR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| Vicente Guaita GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Yoel Lago DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| Hugo Álvarez ML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.47 |
| Carlos Domínguez DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Óscar Mingueza DR | 85 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.33 | 0.00 | 0.52 |
| Williot Swedberg MC | 79 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.04 | 0.12 | 0.16 |
| Iago Aspas FW | 55 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Damián Rodríguez DMC | 55 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.13 | 0.23 |
| Marcos Alonso DL | 50 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| Fran Beltrán Sub | 35 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.33 | 0.37 |
| Javier Rodríguez Sub | 35 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mihailo Ristic Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Franco Cervi Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Borja Iglesias Sub | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.32 | 0.00 | 0.32 |
| Iker Losada Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Sevilla
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nemanja Gudelj DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.92 | 0.00 | 0.24 |
| Kike Salas DL | 90 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0.74 | 0.00 | 0.75 |
| Ramón Martínez DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.47 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Saúl Ñíguez MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.02 | 0.03 |
| Dodi Lukebakio FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.23 | 0.38 |
| Lucien Agoume MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.27 |
| Ørjan Nyland GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Juanlu Sanchez MR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Peque FW | 76 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Adrià Pedrosa ML | 62 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.23 | 0.13 | 0.23 |
| Isaac Romero Sub | 45 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.12 |
| Loic Bade DC | 45 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Suso Sub | 28 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.06 | 0.37 | 0.09 |
| García Pascual Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Chidera Ejuke Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.18 | 0.18 |