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Celta Vigo v Valencia — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Friday 23 August 2024 · ESP-La Liga · 2425

La Liga xG

3–1
1.31 – 1.15 xG
Shots
7 – 13
On target
5 – 4
Shots in box
4 – 10
xG per shot
0.19 – 0.09
Set-piece xG
0.88 – 0.82
Goals − xG
+1.69 – -0.18
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.00.40.71.11.50'15'30'45'60'75'90'Diego López 13' — goalÓscar Mingueza 22' — goalIago Aspas 27' — goalFran Beltrán 59' — goal
Celta Vigo 1.31 xGValencia 1.18 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

André Almeida 7' — Saved Shot (0.01 xG, Set Piece)Diego López 13' — Goal (0.41 xG, From Corner)Hugo Duro 13' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, From Corner)Rafa Mir 13' — Missed Shot (0.06 xG, From Corner)Thierry Correia 18' — Saved Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Óscar Mingueza 22' — Goal (0.22 xG, Open Play)Williot Swedberg 25' — Missed Shot (0.11 xG, Open Play)Iago Aspas 27' — Goal (0.06 xG, Open Play)Jesús Vázquez 41' — Saved Shot (0.09 xG, Open Play)Hugo Duro 42' — Missed Shot (0.01 xG, From Corner)Javier Guerra 43' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Iago Aspas 49' — Saved Shot (0.74 xG, )Javier Rodríguez 49' — Missed Shot (0.11 xG, From Corner)Hugo Duro 49' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Williot Swedberg 54' — Saved Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Fran Beltrán 59' — Goal (0.02 xG, From Corner)Luis Rioja 68' — Missed Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Rafa Mir 81' — Shot On Post (0.06 xG, Open Play)Martín Tejón 83' — Blocked Shot (0.08 xG, Open Play)Yarek Gasiorowski 83' — Missed Shot (0.31 xG, From Corner)
Celta Vigo attacking right Valencia attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
7' Valencia André Almeida 0.01 Set Piece Right Foot Saved Shot
13' Valencia Diego López 0.42 From Corner Goal Rafa Mir
13' Valencia Hugo Duro 0.02 From Corner Blocked Shot Pepelu
13' Valencia Rafa Mir 0.06 From Corner Right Foot Missed Shot Yarek Gasiorowski
18' Valencia Thierry Correia 0.06 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Javier Guerra
22' Celta Vigo Óscar Mingueza 0.22 Open Play Right Foot Goal Iago Aspas
25' Celta Vigo Williot Swedberg 0.11 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Iago Aspas
27' Celta Vigo Iago Aspas 0.06 Open Play Left Foot Goal Óscar Mingueza
41' Valencia Jesús Vázquez 0.09 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Yarek Gasiorowski
42' Valencia Hugo Duro 0.01 From Corner Missed Shot André Almeida
43' Valencia Javier Guerra 0.03 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Pepelu
49' Celta Vigo Iago Aspas 0.74 Left Foot Saved Shot
49' Celta Vigo Javier Rodríguez 0.11 From Corner Missed Shot Damián Rodríguez
49' Valencia Hugo Duro 0.04 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Giorgi Mamardashvili
54' Celta Vigo Williot Swedberg 0.04 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Iago Aspas
59' Celta Vigo Fran Beltrán 0.02 From Corner Right Foot Goal
68' Valencia Luis Rioja 0.01 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot
81' Valencia Rafa Mir 0.06 Open Play Shot On Post Dimitri Foulquier
83' Valencia Martín Tejón 0.08 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot
83' Valencia Yarek Gasiorowski 0.31 From Corner Missed Shot Pepelu

Players

Celta Vigo

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Iago Aspas FWR 90 1 1 2 3 0.80 0.37 0.43
Fran Beltrán MC 90 1 0 1 0 0.02 0.00 0.32
Jaílson DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Iván Villar GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Hugo Álvarez DMR 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.22
Damián Rodríguez MC 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.11 0.33
Carlos Domínguez DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.04
Javier Rodríguez DC 79 0 0 1 0 0.11 0.00 0.22
Tasos Douvikas FW 70 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.22
Williot Swedberg FWL 69 0 0 2 0 0.15 0.00 0.37
Óscar Mingueza DML 50 1 1 1 1 0.22 0.06 0.28
Sergio Carreira Sub 40 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Jonathan Bamba Sub 21 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Borja Iglesias Sub 20 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Carl Starfelt Sub 11 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Pablo Durán Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00

Valencia

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Yarek Gasiorowski DC 90 0 0 1 2 0.31 0.14 0.20
Jesús Vázquez DL 90 0 0 1 0 0.09 0.00 0.20
André Almeida FW 90 0 0 1 1 0.01 0.01 0.09
Cristhian Mosquera DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.09
Giorgi Mamardashvili GK 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.04 0.13
Pepelu MC 90 0 0 0 3 0.00 0.35 0.11
Rafa Mir MR 88 0 1 2 1 0.11 0.42 0.06
Diego López ML 81 1 0 1 0 0.42 0.00 0.06
Hugo Duro FW 81 0 0 3 0 0.07 0.00 0.04
Thierry Correia DR 81 0 0 1 0 0.06 0.00 0.15
Javier Guerra MC 65 0 0 1 1 0.03 0.06 0.17
Luis Rioja Sub 25 0 0 1 0 0.01 0.00 0.01
Martín Tejón Sub 9 0 0 1 0 0.08 0.00 0.08
Dimitri Foulquier Sub 9 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.06 0.06
Dani Gómez Sub 9 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Alberto Mari Sub 2 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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