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Celtic v Dundee United — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Wednesday 28 October 2026 · SCO-Premiership · 2627

SCO-Premiership results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily
Celtic win
82.4%
model 81.0%
Draw
10.7%
model 12.6%
Dundee United win
6.8%
model 6.5%

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (26 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

  1. 2-0 12.6%
  2. 3-0 11.5%
  3. 1-0 9.3%
  4. 2-1 8.3%
  5. 4-0 7.9%

Goals

Over 2.565.8% Under 2.534.2%
BTTS yes44.8% BTTS no55.2%
Celtic 1+93.5% Celtic 2+75.8%
Dundee United 1+48.0% Dundee United 2+14.0%

Expected goals 2.74 – 0.65. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence
84/100
Data quality
75/100
Model agreement
97%
★ Best pick
Celtic (-1.5)
Asian handicap · usually 26%
63.6% fair odds 1.57
strong signal · 1134 settled matches behind the band
★ Most likely to land
Under 2.5 in 1st half
Over/Under 1HT
84.0% fair odds 1.19
moderate signal · 385 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

  • Celtic carry the stronger rating, 1772 Elo against 1439.
  • Form is good: 3.00 points a match from the last five.

Risk factors

  • No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.
Why the model thinks this

The price

Celtic have an estimated 82.4% win probability, against 10.7% for the draw and 6.8% for Dundee United. Expected goals from the ensemble are 2.73 for Celtic and 0.65 for Dundee United.

Why Celtic

Celtic carry the stronger rating, 1772 Elo against 1439. Form is good: 3.00 points a match from the last five.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 10.7%. Draws run at 23% in this competition.

Why Dundee United can win

Nothing in the data singles out Dundee United.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Celtic, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Dundee United, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Celtic: 62% possession, 22.4 shots a match, 8.8 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Dundee United: 51% possession, 13.2 shots a match, 16.8 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Celtic's shot volume meets a defence that concedes shots freely.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-27 10:01 · team_stats 2026-10-27 06:03 · availability 2026-10-27 14:57 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Celtic are the model's most likely outcome at 82.4%. The likeliest scoreline is 2-0 at 12.6%. Confidence 84/100, data quality 75/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
ai-blend 2.74–0.65 0% 0% 0%
dc-xg 2.61–0.70 2-0 12% 64% 47%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Celtic to win 78.4% 78.3% 45.9% 1.71× 1.28
Draw 13.9% 13.5% 23.3% 0.58× 7.42
Dundee United to win 7.7% 8.1% 31.0% 0.26× 12.29
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Celtic & not both score 46.1% 43.0% 27.5% 1.56× 2.33
Celtic & both teams score 32.2% 29.6% 18.6% 1.59× 3.38
Draw & both teams score 10.3% 13.3% 17.8% 0.75× 7.54
Dundee United & both teams score 4.0% 4.9% 16.3% 0.30× 20.50
Dundee United & not both score 3.8% 4.9% 14.9% 0.33× 20.51
Draw & not both score 3.6% 4.9% 5.8% 0.84× 20.51
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Celtic & over 1.5 68.8% 67.9% 36.6% 1.86× 1.47
Celtic & over 2.5 56.3% 54.8% 28.1% 1.95× 1.82
Celtic & under 3.5 41.6% 40.3% 30.2% 1.33× 2.48
Celtic & over 3.5 36.8% 34.9% 15.9% 2.19× 2.87
Celtic & under 2.5 22.1% 21.6% 18.0% 1.20× 4.63
Draw & over 1.5 10.3% 12.8% 17.8% 0.72× 7.79
Draw & under 2.5 10.1% 12.8% 14.9% 0.86× 7.79
Draw & under 3.5 10.1% 12.8% 14.9% 0.86× 7.79
Celtic & under 1.5 9.6% 7.9% 9.5% 0.83× 12.63
Dundee United & under 3.5 6.1% 7.9% 22.5% 0.35× 12.63
Dundee United & over 1.5 5.1% 7.9% 24.4% 0.32× 12.63
Dundee United & over 2.5 4.2% 4.8% 20.5% 0.23× 20.82
Draw & under 1.5 3.6% 4.8% 5.8% 0.83× 20.82
Draw & over 2.5 3.7% 4.8% 8.7% 0.55× 20.82
Draw & over 3.5 3.7% 4.8% 8.7% 0.55× 20.82
Dundee United & under 2.5 3.5% 4.8% 10.7% 0.45× 20.82
Dundee United & under 1.5 2.6% 4.8% 6.8% 0.70× 20.83
Dundee United & over 3.5 1.7% 4.8% 8.7% 0.55× 20.83
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Celtic (1UP) 85.7% 90.0% — — 1.11
Dundee United (1UP) 23.0% 22.3% — — 4.49
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Celtic (2UP) 78.4% 77.7% — — 1.29
Dundee United (2UP) 7.7% 8.3% — — 11.99
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Celtic to win 2nd half 64.2% 59.9% — — 1.67
2nd half drawn 25.6% 26.0% — — 3.84
Dundee United to win 2nd half 10.2% 10.8% — — 9.28
2nd half away goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee United under 1.5 in 2nd half 93.3% 91.9% — — 1.09
Dundee United under 0.5 in 2nd half 65.7% 69.5% — — 1.44
Dundee United over 0.5 in 2nd half 34.3% 30.5% — — 3.28
Dundee United over 1.5 in 2nd half 6.7% 8.1% — — 12.30
2nd half home goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Celtic over 0.5 in 2nd half 77.4% 75.3% — — 1.33
Celtic under 1.5 in 2nd half 56.2% 57.9% — — 1.73
Celtic over 1.5 in 2nd half 43.8% 42.1% — — 2.38
Celtic under 0.5 in 2nd half 22.6% 24.7% — — 4.04
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Celtic (+0.5) 92.3% 92.1% 69.0% 1.34× 1.09
Celtic (-0.5) 78.4% 78.5% 45.9% 1.71× 1.27
Dundee United (+2.5) 65.0% 68.7% 87.8% 0.78× 1.46
Celtic (-1.5) 57.0% 57.0% 26.4% 2.16× 1.75
Dundee United (+1.5) 43.0% 43.0% 73.6% 0.58× 2.33
Celtic (-2.5) 35.0% 31.3% 12.2% 2.57× 3.19
Dundee United (+0.5) 21.6% 21.5% 54.1% 0.40× 4.65
Dundee United (-0.5) 7.7% 7.9% 31.0% 0.25× 12.70
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee United to concede 92.7% 91.7% 79.5% 1.15× 1.09
Dundee United clean sheet 7.3% 8.3% 20.5% 0.41× 12.04
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee United to concede in 1st half 67.5% 71.3% — — 1.40
Dundee United clean sheet in 1st half 32.5% 28.7% — — 3.49
Away clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee United to concede in 2nd half 77.4% 75.0% — — 1.33
Dundee United clean sheet in 2nd half 22.6% 25.0% — — 4.00
Away corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee United under 6.5 corners 91.6% 89.9% — — 1.11
Dundee United under 5.5 corners 84.2% 81.4% — — 1.23
Dundee United under 4.5 corners 72.4% 71.6% — — 1.40
Dundee United over 2.5 corners 63.8% 61.7% — — 1.62
Dundee United under 3.5 corners 55.9% 57.2% — — 1.75
Dundee United over 3.5 corners 44.1% 42.8% — — 2.34
Dundee United under 2.5 corners 36.2% 38.3% — — 2.61
Dundee United over 4.5 corners 27.6% 28.4% — — 3.52
Dundee United over 5.5 corners 15.8% 18.6% — — 5.38
Dundee United over 6.5 corners 8.4% 10.1% — — 9.89
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee United under 3.5 goals 99.4% 97.5% 96.3% 1.01× 1.03
Dundee United under 2.5 goals 96.6% 97.5% 85.5% 1.14× 1.03
Dundee United under 1.5 goals 84.5% 81.5% 63.2% 1.29× 1.23
Dundee United over 0.5 goals 50.3% 53.5% 66.9% 0.80× 1.87
Dundee United under 0.5 goals 49.7% 46.5% 33.1% 1.41× 2.15
Dundee United over 1.5 goals 15.5% 18.5% 36.8% 0.50× 5.41
Dundee United over 2.5 goals 3.4% 2.5% 14.5% 0.17× 39.80
Dundee United over 3.5 goals 0.6% 2.5% 3.7% 0.67× 39.94
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee United under 1.5 in 1st half 96.7% 96.2% — — 1.04
Dundee United under 0.5 in 1st half 75.6% 74.8% — — 1.34
Dundee United over 0.5 in 1st half 24.4% 25.2% — — 3.96
Dundee United over 1.5 in 1st half 3.3% 3.8% — — 26.02
Away highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee United scores equally in both 55.7% 52.6% — — 1.90
Dundee United scores more in 2nd half 27.3% 26.5% — — 3.77
Dundee United scores more in 1st half 17.0% 18.0% — — 5.56
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Celtic (away no bet) 85.0% 82.9% 66.3% 1.25× 1.21
Draw (away no bet) 15.0% 17.1% 33.7% 0.51× 5.85
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee United even goals 62.4% 59.1% 57.6% 1.03× 1.69
Dundee United odd goals 37.6% 40.9% 42.4% 0.97× 2.45
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 76.7% 80.8% — — 1.24
Both halves over 1.5 goals 23.3% 19.2% — — 5.21
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves under 1.5 74.5% 67.8% — — 1.48
Both halves under 1.5 goals 25.5% 32.2% — — 3.11
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 72.5% 71.8% — — 1.39
Celtic to score 2+ in a row 68.1% 62.5% — — 1.60
Either team to score 3+ in a row 41.1% 38.7% — — 2.59
Celtic to score 3+ in a row 40.0% 38.6% — — 2.59
Dundee United to score 2+ in a row 8.9% 5.5% — — 18.06
Dundee United to score 3+ in a row 1.2% 2.5% — — 40.20
Corner handicap 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Celtic corners (+3.5) 98.3% 95.8% — — 1.04
Celtic corners (+2.5) 96.8% 95.7% — — 1.04
Celtic corners (+1.5) 94.3% 89.6% — — 1.12
Celtic corners (-1.5) 78.1% 74.8% — — 1.34
Celtic corners (-2.5) 69.7% 65.9% — — 1.52
Celtic corners (-3.5) 60.2% 61.8% — — 1.62
Dundee United corners (+3.5) 39.8% 38.2% — — 2.62
Dundee United corners (+2.5) 30.3% 34.1% — — 2.93
Dundee United corners (+1.5) 21.9% 25.2% — — 3.97
Dundee United corners (-1.5) 5.7% 10.4% — — 9.60
Dundee United corners (-2.5) 3.2% 4.3% — — 23.48
Dundee United corners (-3.5) 1.7% 4.3% — — 23.53
Corner range 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
12+ corners 48.4% 41.7% — — 2.40
9-11 corners 28.1% 31.2% — — 3.21
0-8 corners 23.5% 25.7% — — 3.90
Corners O/U 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 7.5 corners 84.1% 80.7% — — 1.24
Over 8.5 corners 76.5% 76.6% — — 1.31
Over 9.5 corners 67.6% 67.8% — — 1.48
Under 12.5 corners 60.8% 63.2% — — 1.58
Over 10.5 corners 58.0% 57.9% — — 1.73
Under 11.5 corners 51.6% 53.2% — — 1.88
Over 11.5 corners 48.4% 46.8% — — 2.14
Under 10.5 corners 42.0% 42.1% — — 2.37
Over 12.5 corners 39.2% 36.8% — — 2.72
Under 9.5 corners 32.4% 32.2% — — 3.11
Under 8.5 corners 23.5% 23.4% — — 4.27
Under 7.5 corners 15.9% 19.3% — — 5.18
Corners Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of corners 50.0% 50.2% — — 1.99
Even number of corners 50.0% 49.8% — — 2.01
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-0 12.5% 11.5% 8.7% 1.32× 8.71
Any other score 12.4% 11.5% 4.1% 2.78× 8.71
3-0 10.8% 11.5% 5.6% 2.06× 8.72
1-0 9.6% 7.4% 9.5% 0.78× 13.51
2-1 8.7% 7.4% 7.0% 1.05× 13.51
1-1 6.6% 7.4% 9.3% 0.80× 13.51
3-1 7.6% 7.4% 5.6% 1.33× 13.51
4-0 7.1% 7.4% 3.5% 2.11× 13.51
4-1 5.0% 1.7% 1.4% 1.19× 58.29
0-0 3.6% 1.7% 5.8% 0.30× 58.30
0-1 2.6% 1.7% 6.8% 0.25× 58.30
0-2 0.9% 1.7% 4.1% 0.42× 58.31
0-3 0.2% 1.7% 3.3% 0.52× 58.32
0-4 0.0% 1.7% 0.4% 4.15× 58.32
1-2 2.3% 1.7% 8.9% 0.19× 58.31
1-3 0.5% 1.7% 3.1% 0.55× 58.32
1-4 0.1% 1.7% 0.8% 2.07× 58.32
2-2 3.0% 1.7% 6.6% 0.26× 58.30
2-3 0.7% 1.7% 2.3% 0.75× 58.32
2-4 0.1% 1.7% 0.8% 2.07× 58.32
3-2 2.7% 1.7% 2.9% 0.59× 58.30
3-3 0.6% 1.7% 2.3% 0.75× 58.32
3-4 0.1% 1.7% 0.4% 4.15× 58.32
4-2 1.7% 1.7% 0.6% 2.77× 58.31
4-3 0.4% 1.7% 0.8% 2.07× 58.32
4-4 0.1% 1.7% 0.2% 8.30× 58.32
DNB 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Celtic (2nd half DNB) 86.2% 86.1% — — 1.16
Dundee United (2nd half DNB) 13.8% 13.9% — — 7.18
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Celtic leading at HT (DNB) 86.3% 87.8% — — 1.14
Dundee United leading at HT (DNB) 13.7% 12.2% — — 8.23
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Celtic or draw (1X) 92.3% 91.9% 69.0% 1.33× 1.09
Celtic or Dundee United (12) 86.1% 86.5% 76.7% 1.13× 1.16
Dundee United or draw (X2) 21.6% 21.7% 54.1% 0.40× 4.61
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Celtic or draw at HT 90.8% 91.0% — — 1.10
Celtic or Dundee United at HT 67.1% 67.2% — — 1.49
Dundee United or draw at HT 42.1% 42.8% — — 2.33
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Celtic or draw (1UP) 92.3% 93.7% — — 1.07
Dundee United or draw (1UP) 23.0% 23.9% — — 4.19
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Celtic or draw in 2nd half 89.8% 89.2% — — 1.12
Celtic or Dundee United in 2nd half 74.4% 74.0% — — 1.35
Dundee United or draw in 2nd half 35.8% 40.1% — — 2.49
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half drawn 50.2% 50.0% — — 2.00
Neither half drawn 49.8% 50.0% — — 2.00
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Celtic (DNB) 91.0% 93.1% 59.7% 1.56× 1.07
Dundee United (DNB) 9.0% 6.9% 40.3% 0.17× 14.59
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Celtic to score first 76.1% 80.4% — — 1.24
Dundee United to score first 20.3% 22.2% — — 4.50
No goal scored 3.6% 4.4% — — 22.89
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 53.5% 51.3% 47.7% 1.07× 1.95
Both teams to score 46.5% 48.7% 52.3% 0.93× 2.05
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both score & over 2.5 39.9% 38.5% 43.2% 0.89× 2.60
Not both score & under 2.5 29.1% 33.3% 34.1% 0.98× 3.00
Not both score & over 2.5 24.3% 27.9% 13.8% 2.02× 3.58
Both score & under 2.5 6.6% 8.3% 9.3% 0.89× 12.07
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 88.6% 85.6% 83.9% 1.02× 1.17
Both teams to score 2+ 11.4% 14.4% 16.1% 0.89× 6.96
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 73.5% 73.7% — — 1.36
Both teams to score in 2nd half 26.5% 26.3% — — 3.80
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 61.4% 65.8% — — 1.52
Both score 2nd half only 22.1% 21.2% — — 4.71
Both score 1st half only 12.1% 10.7% — — 9.32
Both score in both halves 4.4% 4.9% — — 20.26
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 83.6% 83.5% — — 1.20
Both teams to score by HT 16.5% 16.5% — — 6.06
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A goal in each half 64.2% 59.5% — — 1.68
A half without a goal 35.8% 40.5% — — 2.47
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-3 goals 42.0% 42.2% 45.7% 0.92× 2.37
4-6 goals 37.1% 35.0% 31.2% 1.12× 2.85
0-1 goals 15.8% 20.2% 21.7% 0.93× 4.95
7+ goals 5.1% 7.6% 1.9% 4.08× 13.18
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee United to score exactly 0 49.7% 43.0% 33.1% 1.30× 2.32
Dundee United to score exactly 1 34.7% 33.8% 30.4% 1.11× 2.96
Dundee United to score exactly 2 12.1% 12.9% 22.5% 0.57× 7.76
Dundee United to score 3+ 3.4% 4.6% 14.5% 0.32× 21.84
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Celtic to score 3+ 48.5% 37.6% 23.8% 1.58× 2.66
Celtic to score exactly 2 25.0% 26.6% 25.0% 1.06× 3.77
Celtic to score exactly 1 19.2% 18.8% 31.2% 0.60× 5.32
Celtic to score exactly 0 7.3% 10.3% 20.5% 0.51× 9.67
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Celtic leading at HT 57.9% 57.2% — — 1.75
Draw at HT 32.9% 32.8% — — 3.05
Dundee United leading at HT 9.2% 9.0% — — 11.16
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Celtic -1: 1 57.0% 56.8% — — 1.76
Celtic -1: X 21.4% 23.5% — — 4.25
Celtic -1: 2 21.6% 23.5% — — 4.25
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Celtic (0:1) 57.0% 55.8% 26.4% 2.11× 1.79
Dundee United (0:1) 21.6% 24.2% 54.1% 0.45× 4.13
Draw (0:1) 21.4% 24.2% 19.6% 1.23× 4.13
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee United (0:2) 43.0% 38.9% 73.6% 0.53× 2.57
Celtic (0:2) 35.0% 29.3% 12.2% 2.40× 3.42
Draw (0:2) 22.0% 20.3% 14.5% 1.40× 4.93
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee United (0:3) 65.0% 71.2% 87.8% 0.81× 1.41
Celtic (0:3) 18.2% 16.3% 5.6% 2.92× 6.14
Draw (0:3) 16.8% 16.2% 6.8% 2.38× 6.17
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee United (0:4) 81.8% 86.9% 94.4% 0.92× 1.15
Draw (0:4) 10.1% 9.7% 4.8% 2.05× 10.26
Celtic (0:4) 8.1% 4.7% 1.0% 4.51× 21.48
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Celtic (1:0) 92.3% 92.7% 69.0% 1.34× 1.08
Draw (1:0) 5.8% 6.9% 17.8% 0.39× 14.52
Dundee United (1:0) 2.0% 3.2% 13.4% 0.24× 30.82
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Celtic (2:0) 98.0% 96.8% 86.6% 1.12× 1.03
Draw (2:0) 1.6% 2.3% 7.6% 0.30× 43.83
Dundee United (2:0) 0.4% 2.3% 6.0% 0.38× 43.90
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 49.4% 48.6% — — 2.06
1st half highest scoring 28.4% 26.2% — — 3.81
Halves equal 22.1% 24.5% — — 4.09
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Celtic to concede 50.3% 53.1% 66.9% 0.79× 1.88
Celtic clean sheet 49.7% 46.9% 33.1% 1.42× 2.13
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Celtic clean sheet in 1st half 75.6% 77.0% — — 1.30
Celtic to concede in 1st half 24.4% 23.0% — — 4.35
Home clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Celtic clean sheet in 2nd half 65.7% 66.5% — — 1.50
Celtic to concede in 2nd half 34.3% 33.5% — — 2.99
Home corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Celtic over 2.5 corners 96.6% 94.9% — — 1.05
Celtic over 3.5 corners 92.1% 89.2% — — 1.12
Celtic over 4.5 corners 85.1% 86.2% — — 1.16
Celtic over 5.5 corners 75.9% 76.5% — — 1.31
Celtic over 6.5 corners 65.1% 66.7% — — 1.50
Celtic under 6.5 corners 34.9% 33.3% — — 3.00
Celtic under 5.5 corners 24.1% 23.5% — — 4.26
Celtic under 4.5 corners 14.9% 13.8% — — 7.25
Celtic under 3.5 corners 7.9% 10.8% — — 9.28
Celtic under 2.5 corners 3.4% 5.1% — — 19.55
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Celtic over 0.5 goals 92.7% 92.2% 79.5% 1.16× 1.08
Celtic over 1.5 goals 73.5% 74.2% 48.6% 1.53× 1.35
Celtic under 3.5 goals 73.4% 74.2% 92.1% 0.81× 1.35
Celtic under 2.5 goals 51.5% 53.2% 76.2% 0.70× 1.88
Celtic over 2.5 goals 48.5% 46.8% 23.8% 1.97× 2.14
Celtic over 3.5 goals 26.6% 25.8% 7.9% 3.28× 3.88
Celtic under 1.5 goals 26.5% 25.8% 51.4% 0.50× 3.88
Celtic under 0.5 goals 7.3% 7.8% 20.5% 0.38× 12.84
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Celtic under 1.5 in 1st half 69.0% 69.6% — — 1.44
Celtic over 0.5 in 1st half 67.5% 69.5% — — 1.44
Celtic under 0.5 in 1st half 32.5% 30.5% — — 3.27
Celtic over 1.5 in 1st half 31.0% 30.4% — — 3.29
Home highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Celtic scores more in 2nd half 45.6% 47.1% — — 2.12
Celtic scores more in 1st half 28.6% 27.9% — — 3.59
Celtic scores equally in both 25.8% 27.8% — — 3.59
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw (home no bet) 64.2% 60.1% 43.0% 1.40× 1.67
Dundee United (home no bet) 35.8% 39.9% 57.0% 0.70× 2.50
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Celtic even goals 50.3% 50.7% 51.7% 0.98× 1.97
Celtic odd goals 49.7% 49.3% 48.3% 1.02× 2.03
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 1-0 27.6% 28.4% — — 3.52
HT 0-0 24.6% 24.4% — — 4.10
HT 2-0 15.5% 18.5% — — 5.40
Any other HT score 10.7% 11.0% — — 9.12
HT 1-1 7.7% 6.9% — — 14.54
HT 0-1 6.9% 6.9% — — 14.55
HT 2-1 4.3% 2.4% — — 42.14
HT 0-2 1.0% 2.4% — — 42.36
HT 1-2 1.1% 2.4% — — 42.35
HT 2-2 0.6% 2.4% — — 42.38
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Celtic at HT / Celtic at FT 54.3% 53.6% — — 1.87
Draw at HT / Celtic at FT 21.2% 21.6% — — 4.64
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 8.3% 6.1% — — 16.46
Dundee United at HT / Dundee United at FT 3.7% 3.5% — — 28.90
Draw at HT / Dundee United at FT 3.4% 3.5% — — 28.91
Celtic at HT / Draw at FT 3.0% 3.5% — — 28.93
Dundee United at HT / Celtic at FT 2.9% 3.5% — — 28.93
Dundee United at HT / Draw at FT 2.6% 3.5% — — 28.94
Celtic at HT / Dundee United at FT 0.6% 3.4% — — 29.01
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Celtic to score last 76.1% 76.2% — — 1.31
Dundee United to score last 20.4% 25.1% — — 3.99
No goal scored 3.6% 4.4% — — 22.89
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 96.4% 95.6% — — 1.05
Celtic to lead by 1 at any time 85.7% 90.9% — — 1.10
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 66.5% 69.3% — — 1.44
Celtic to lead by 2 at any time 62.3% 61.2% — — 1.63
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 38.8% 34.8% — — 2.87
Celtic to lead by 3 at any time 38.1% 34.8% — — 2.87
Dundee United to lead by 1 at any time 23.0% 19.5% — — 5.12
Dundee United to lead by 2 at any time 4.5% 1.6% — — 60.98
Dundee United to lead by 3 at any time 0.7% 1.5% — — 64.58
Most corners 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Celtic most corners 85.1% 86.0% — — 1.16
Dundee United most corners 9.5% 8.3% — — 11.98
Corners level 5.4% 8.3% — — 12.01
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-5 goals 84.7% 83.4% 87.0% 0.96× 1.20
2-6 goals 79.1% 78.7% 76.7% 1.03× 1.27
1-4 goals 72.5% 72.3% 79.8% 0.91× 1.38
2-5 goals 72.4% 72.3% 71.1% 1.02× 1.38
2-4 goals 60.3% 63.3% 63.8% 0.99× 1.58
3-6 goals 59.2% 59.1% 55.2% 1.07× 1.69
1-3 goals 54.2% 53.2% 61.6% 0.86× 1.88
3-5 goals 52.5% 53.2% 49.6% 1.07× 1.88
2-3 goals 42.0% 43.6% 45.7% 0.95× 2.29
3-4 goals 40.4% 43.6% 42.4% 1.03× 2.29
4-6 goals 37.1% 39.2% 31.2% 1.26× 2.55
1-2 goals 32.2% 35.2% 37.6% 0.94× 2.84
4-5 goals 30.4% 35.2% 25.6% 1.37× 2.84
5-6 goals 18.8% 18.8% 13.0% 1.45× 5.31
7+ goals 5.1% 8.9% 1.9% 4.77× 11.28
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Celtic never behind 73.5% 77.9% — — 1.28
Dundee United never behind 10.8% 11.7% — — 8.52
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even number of goals 49.9% 50.9% 51.2% 0.99× 1.97
Odd number of goals 50.1% 49.1% 48.8% 1.01× 2.04
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 53.0% 51.8% — — 1.93
Odd goals in 1st half 47.0% 48.2% — — 2.07
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 51.1% 52.0% — — 1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half 48.9% 48.0% — — 2.08
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 goals 96.4% 95.4% 94.2% 1.01× 1.05
Under 5.5 goals 88.2% 87.6% 92.6% 0.95× 1.14
Over 1.5 goals 84.2% 82.3% 78.3% 1.05× 1.22
Under 4.5 goals 76.1% 77.3% 85.3% 0.91× 1.29
Over 2.5 goals 64.3% 61.7% 56.8% 1.09× 1.62
Under 3.5 goals 57.8% 58.6% 67.1% 0.87× 1.71
Over 3.5 goals 42.2% 41.4% 32.9% 1.26× 2.42
Under 2.5 goals 35.7% 38.3% 43.2% 0.89× 2.61
Over 4.5 goals 23.9% 22.7% 14.7% 1.55× 4.40
Under 1.5 goals 15.8% 17.7% 21.7% 0.82× 5.65
Over 5.5 goals 11.8% 12.4% 7.4% 1.67× 8.07
Under 0.5 goals 3.6% 4.6% 5.8% 0.79× 21.82
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 94.6% 92.4% 98.0% 0.94× 1.08
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 86.6% 86.7% 92.0% 0.94× 1.15
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 80.3% 81.1% 72.4% 1.12× 1.23
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 70.8% 72.3% 82.1% 0.88× 1.38
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 54.2% 51.9% 43.2% 1.20× 1.93
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 45.8% 48.1% 56.8% 0.85× 2.08
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 29.2% 27.7% 17.9% 1.54× 3.62
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 19.7% 18.9% 27.6% 0.69× 5.28
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 13.4% 13.3% 8.0% 1.66× 7.54
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 5.4% 7.6% 2.0% 3.85× 13.20
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half 83.3% 85.7% — — 1.17
Over 0.5 in 1st half 75.4% 78.0% — — 1.28
Under 1.5 in 1st half 59.1% 64.8% — — 1.54
Over 1.5 in 1st half 40.9% 35.2% — — 2.84
Under 0.5 in 1st half 24.6% 22.0% — — 4.54
Over 2.5 in 1st half 16.7% 14.3% — — 7.01
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 85.2% 85.3% — — 1.17
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 70.2% 77.6% — — 1.29
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 56.8% 55.3% — — 1.81
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 43.2% 44.7% — — 2.24
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 29.8% 22.4% — — 4.47
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 14.8% 14.7% — — 6.79
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee United not to score in both halves 91.6% 90.4% — — 1.11
Celtic to score in both halves 52.3% 55.8% — — 1.79
Celtic not to score in both halves 47.7% 44.2% — — 2.26
Dundee United to score in both halves 8.4% 9.6% — — 10.40
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams score 46.5% 50.7% 52.3% 0.97× 1.97
Only Celtic scores 46.1% 50.7% 27.5% 1.84× 1.97
Only Dundee United scores 3.8% 4.6% 14.9% 0.31× 21.57
Neither team scores 3.6% 4.6% 5.8% 0.80× 21.58
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 3 goals 22.1% 22.6% 24.2% 0.93× 4.43
Exactly 2 goals 19.9% 17.5% 21.7% 0.81× 5.73
Exactly 4 goals 18.3% 17.5% 18.4% 0.95× 5.73
Exactly 1 goals 12.2% 12.1% 16.1% 0.75× 8.26
Exactly 5 goals 12.1% 12.1% 7.4% 1.63× 8.26
6 or more goals 11.8% 12.1% 7.4% 1.63× 8.26
Exactly 0 goals 3.6% 4.5% 5.8% 0.77× 22.35
Total goals 1st half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1 goal in 1st half 34.5% 35.7% — — 2.80
No goals in 1st half 24.6% 21.5% — — 4.65
2 goals in 1st half 24.2% 21.5% — — 4.65
3+ goals in 1st half 16.7% 15.6% — — 6.39
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half 56.8% 54.2% — — 1.85
1 goal in 2nd half 28.4% 29.2% — — 3.43
No goals in 2nd half 14.8% 14.6% — — 6.86
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee United not to win both halves 99.1% 97.3% — — 1.03
Celtic not to win both halves 62.9% 69.0% — — 1.45
Celtic to win both halves 37.1% 31.0% — — 3.22
Dundee United to win both halves 0.9% 2.7% — — 36.86
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Celtic to win either half 84.9% 84.0% — — 1.19
Dundee United to win neither half 81.5% 83.4% — — 1.20
Dundee United to win either half 18.5% 16.6% — — 6.04
Celtic to win neither half 15.1% 16.0% — — 6.25
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee United not to win to nil 96.2% 96.1% 85.1% 1.13× 1.04
Celtic not to win to nil 53.9% 53.9% 72.5% 0.74× 1.86
Celtic to win to nil 46.1% 46.1% 27.5% 1.68× 2.17
Dundee United to win to nil 3.8% 3.9% 14.9% 0.26× 25.81
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Celtic by 3+ 35.0% 27.8% 12.2% 2.28× 3.60
Celtic by 2 22.0% 24.1% 14.5% 1.67× 4.15
Celtic by 1 21.4% 24.1% 19.6% 1.23× 4.15
Draw 13.9% 11.8% 23.3% 0.50× 8.50
Dundee United by 1 5.8% 7.2% 17.8% 0.40× 13.92
Dundee United by 2 1.6% 2.7% 7.6% 0.35× 36.92
Dundee United by 3+ 0.4% 2.7% 6.0% 0.45× 36.96
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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