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Celtic v St Johnstone — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 5 December 2026 · SCO-Premiership · 2627

SCO-Premiership results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily
Celtic win
83.1%
model 83.5%
Draw
10.5%
model 11.4%
St Johnstone win
6.4%
model 5.1%

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (26 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

  1. 2-0 13.6%
  2. 3-0 12.7%
  3. 1-0 9.9%
  4. 4-0 8.8%
  5. 2-1 7.7%

Goals

Over 2.565.0% Under 2.535.0%
BTTS yes40.2% BTTS no59.8%
Celtic 1+93.9% Celtic 2+76.7%
St Johnstone 1+42.9% St Johnstone 2+10.9%

Expected goals 2.79 – 0.56. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence
79/100
Data quality
65/100
Model agreement
98%
★ Best pick
Celtic (-1.5)
Asian handicap · usually 26%
63.8% fair odds 1.57
strong signal · 1134 settled matches behind the band
★ Most likely to land
Under 2.5 in 1st half
Over/Under 1HT
84.0% fair odds 1.19
moderate signal · 385 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

  • Celtic carry the stronger rating, 1772 Elo against 1351.
  • Form is good: 3.00 points a match from the last five.

Risk factors

  • No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.
Why the model thinks this

The price

Celtic have an estimated 83.1% win probability, against 10.5% for the draw and 6.4% for St Johnstone. Expected goals from the ensemble are 2.79 for Celtic and 0.56 for St Johnstone.

Why Celtic

Celtic carry the stronger rating, 1772 Elo against 1351. Form is good: 3.00 points a match from the last five.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 10.5%. Draws run at 23% in this competition.

Why St Johnstone can win

Nothing in the data singles out St Johnstone.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Celtic, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for St Johnstone, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Celtic: 62% possession, 22.4 shots a match, 8.8 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. St Johnstone: 51% possession, 11.4 shots a match, 12.2 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-26 10:06 · team_stats 2026-10-26 06:08 · availability 2026-10-26 14:59 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Celtic are the model's most likely outcome at 83.1%. The likeliest scoreline is 2-0 at 13.6%. Confidence 79/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
ai-blend 2.79–0.56 0% 0% 0%
dc-xg 2.71–0.60 2-0 13% 64% 42%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Celtic to win 81.8% 81.3% 45.9% 1.77× 1.23
Draw 12.3% 13.4% 23.3% 0.58× 7.44
St Johnstone to win 5.9% 8.0% 31.0% 0.26× 12.44
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Celtic & not both score 51.4% 48.1% 27.5% 1.75× 2.08
Celtic & both teams score 30.4% 29.6% 18.6% 1.59× 3.38
Draw & both teams score 8.7% 8.3% 17.8% 0.47× 12.00
Draw & not both score 3.6% 4.9% 5.8% 0.84× 20.51
St Johnstone & not both score 3.1% 4.9% 14.9% 0.33× 20.52
St Johnstone & both teams score 2.8% 4.9% 16.3% 0.30× 20.53
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Celtic & over 1.5 71.8% 67.4% 36.6% 1.84× 1.48
Celtic & over 2.5 58.3% 54.9% 28.1% 1.95× 1.82
Celtic & under 3.5 43.6% 40.3% 30.2% 1.34× 2.48
Celtic & over 3.5 38.2% 34.9% 15.9% 2.19× 2.87
Celtic & under 2.5 23.4% 21.6% 18.0% 1.20× 4.63
Celtic & under 1.5 10.0% 7.9% 9.5% 0.83× 12.62
Draw & over 1.5 8.7% 7.9% 17.8% 0.45× 12.63
Draw & under 2.5 9.4% 7.9% 14.9% 0.53× 12.62
Draw & under 3.5 9.4% 7.9% 14.9% 0.53× 12.62
St Johnstone & under 3.5 4.8% 4.8% 22.5% 0.21× 20.81
Draw & under 1.5 3.6% 4.8% 5.8% 0.83× 20.82
St Johnstone & over 1.5 3.6% 4.8% 24.4% 0.20× 20.82
Draw & over 2.5 2.9% 4.8% 8.7% 0.55× 20.82
Draw & over 3.5 2.9% 4.8% 8.7% 0.55× 20.82
St Johnstone & over 2.5 3.0% 4.8% 20.5% 0.23× 20.82
St Johnstone & under 2.5 2.9% 4.8% 10.7% 0.45× 20.82
St Johnstone & under 1.5 2.3% 4.8% 6.8% 0.70× 20.83
St Johnstone & over 3.5 1.1% 4.8% 8.7% 0.55× 20.83
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Celtic (1UP) 87.7% 90.7% — — 1.10
St Johnstone (1UP) 19.4% 24.1% — — 4.14
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Celtic (2UP) 81.8% 86.1% — — 1.16
St Johnstone (2UP) 5.9% 7.8% — — 12.77
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Celtic to win 2nd half 67.4% 63.8% — — 1.57
2nd half drawn 24.3% 24.4% — — 4.10
St Johnstone to win 2nd half 8.3% 7.1% — — 14.08
2nd half away goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
St Johnstone under 1.5 in 2nd half 94.9% 92.1% — — 1.09
St Johnstone under 0.5 in 2nd half 69.9% 69.8% — — 1.43
St Johnstone over 0.5 in 2nd half 30.1% 30.2% — — 3.32
St Johnstone over 1.5 in 2nd half 5.1% 7.9% — — 12.60
2nd half home goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Celtic over 0.5 in 2nd half 78.7% 75.3% — — 1.33
Celtic under 1.5 in 2nd half 54.3% 55.0% — — 1.82
Celtic over 1.5 in 2nd half 45.7% 45.0% — — 2.22
Celtic under 0.5 in 2nd half 21.3% 24.7% — — 4.04
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Celtic (+0.5) 94.1% 92.1% 69.0% 1.34× 1.09
Celtic (-0.5) 81.8% 82.6% 45.9% 1.80× 1.21
Celtic (-1.5) 61.3% 62.9% 26.4% 2.38× 1.59
St Johnstone (+2.5) 61.1% 62.9% 87.8% 0.72× 1.59
Celtic (-2.5) 38.9% 37.1% 12.2% 3.04× 2.70
St Johnstone (+1.5) 38.7% 37.1% 73.6% 0.50× 2.70
St Johnstone (+0.5) 18.2% 17.4% 54.1% 0.32× 5.74
St Johnstone (-0.5) 5.9% 7.9% 31.0% 0.25× 12.72
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
St Johnstone to concede 93.4% 91.7% 79.5% 1.15× 1.09
St Johnstone clean sheet 6.6% 8.3% 20.5% 0.41× 12.07
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
St Johnstone to concede in 1st half 68.8% 71.5% — — 1.40
St Johnstone clean sheet in 1st half 31.2% 28.5% — — 3.51
Away clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
St Johnstone to concede in 2nd half 78.7% 75.1% — — 1.33
St Johnstone clean sheet in 2nd half 21.3% 24.9% — — 4.02
Away corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
St Johnstone under 6.5 corners 92.8% 89.9% — — 1.11
St Johnstone under 5.5 corners 86.1% 85.2% — — 1.17
St Johnstone under 4.5 corners 74.9% 71.6% — — 1.40
St Johnstone over 2.5 corners 61.1% 61.7% — — 1.62
St Johnstone under 3.5 corners 58.8% 57.2% — — 1.75
St Johnstone over 3.5 corners 41.2% 42.8% — — 2.34
St Johnstone under 2.5 corners 38.9% 38.3% — — 2.61
St Johnstone over 4.5 corners 25.1% 28.4% — — 3.53
St Johnstone over 5.5 corners 13.9% 14.8% — — 6.77
St Johnstone over 6.5 corners 7.2% 10.1% — — 9.90
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
St Johnstone under 3.5 goals 99.7% 97.5% 96.3% 1.01× 1.03
St Johnstone under 2.5 goals 97.7% 97.5% 85.5% 1.14× 1.03
St Johnstone under 1.5 goals 87.9% 87.8% 63.2% 1.39× 1.14
St Johnstone under 0.5 goals 55.0% 53.6% 33.1% 1.62× 1.87
St Johnstone over 0.5 goals 45.0% 46.4% 66.9% 0.69× 2.15
St Johnstone over 1.5 goals 12.1% 12.2% 36.8% 0.33× 8.20
St Johnstone over 2.5 goals 2.3% 2.5% 14.5% 0.17× 39.85
St Johnstone over 3.5 goals 0.3% 2.5% 3.7% 0.67× 39.95
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
St Johnstone under 1.5 in 1st half 97.6% 96.3% — — 1.04
St Johnstone under 0.5 in 1st half 78.7% 75.3% — — 1.33
St Johnstone over 0.5 in 1st half 21.3% 24.7% — — 4.06
St Johnstone over 1.5 in 1st half 2.4% 3.7% — — 26.78
Away highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
St Johnstone scores equally in both 59.8% 54.5% — — 1.84
St Johnstone scores more in 2nd half 24.7% 21.8% — — 4.58
St Johnstone scores more in 1st half 15.5% 17.9% — — 5.60
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Celtic (away no bet) 86.9% 84.5% 66.3% 1.28× 1.18
Draw (away no bet) 13.1% 15.5% 33.7% 0.46× 6.46
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
St Johnstone even goals 65.1% 64.8% 57.6% 1.12× 1.54
St Johnstone odd goals 34.9% 35.2% 42.4% 0.83× 2.84
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 76.8% 80.9% — — 1.24
Both halves over 1.5 goals 23.2% 19.1% — — 5.25
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves under 1.5 74.4% 67.8% — — 1.48
Both halves under 1.5 goals 25.6% 32.2% — — 3.11
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 73.9% 71.9% — — 1.39
Celtic to score 2+ in a row 70.8% 71.5% — — 1.40
Either team to score 3+ in a row 44.0% 38.8% — — 2.58
Celtic to score 3+ in a row 43.3% 38.8% — — 2.58
St Johnstone to score 2+ in a row 6.7% 5.5% — — 18.23
St Johnstone to score 3+ in a row 0.8% 2.5% — — 40.49
Corner handicap 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Celtic corners (+3.5) 98.6% 95.8% — — 1.04
Celtic corners (+2.5) 97.3% 95.7% — — 1.04
Celtic corners (+1.5) 95.1% 95.7% — — 1.05
Celtic corners (-1.5) 79.8% 74.8% — — 1.34
Celtic corners (-2.5) 71.6% 70.7% — — 1.41
Celtic corners (-3.5) 62.3% 61.9% — — 1.62
St Johnstone corners (+3.5) 37.7% 38.2% — — 2.62
St Johnstone corners (+2.5) 28.4% 29.3% — — 3.42
St Johnstone corners (+1.5) 20.2% 25.2% — — 3.97
St Johnstone corners (-1.5) 4.9% 4.3% — — 23.42
St Johnstone corners (-2.5) 2.7% 4.3% — — 23.49
St Johnstone corners (-3.5) 1.4% 4.3% — — 23.53
Corner range 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
12+ corners 47.6% 41.7% — — 2.40
9-11 corners 28.2% 31.2% — — 3.21
0-8 corners 24.2% 25.7% — — 3.90
Corners O/U 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 7.5 corners 83.7% 80.7% — — 1.24
Over 8.5 corners 75.8% 76.6% — — 1.31
Over 9.5 corners 66.9% 67.8% — — 1.48
Under 12.5 corners 61.5% 63.2% — — 1.58
Over 10.5 corners 57.2% 57.9% — — 1.73
Under 11.5 corners 52.4% 53.2% — — 1.88
Over 11.5 corners 47.6% 46.8% — — 2.14
Under 10.5 corners 42.8% 42.1% — — 2.37
Over 12.5 corners 38.5% 36.8% — — 2.72
Under 9.5 corners 33.1% 32.2% — — 3.11
Under 8.5 corners 24.2% 23.4% — — 4.27
Under 7.5 corners 16.3% 19.3% — — 5.17
Corners Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of corners 50.0% 50.2% — — 1.99
Even number of corners 50.0% 49.8% — — 2.01
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Any other score 13.8% 11.5% 4.1% 2.78× 8.71
2-0 13.4% 11.5% 8.7% 1.32× 8.71
3-0 12.2% 11.5% 5.6% 2.06× 8.71
1-0 10.0% 7.4% 9.5% 0.78× 13.51
2-1 8.0% 7.4% 7.0% 1.05× 13.51
3-1 7.3% 7.4% 5.6% 1.33× 13.51
4-0 8.2% 7.4% 3.5% 2.11× 13.51
1-1 5.9% 7.4% 9.3% 0.80× 13.51
4-1 4.9% 1.7% 1.4% 1.19× 58.29
0-0 3.6% 1.7% 5.8% 0.30× 58.30
0-1 2.3% 1.7% 6.8% 0.25× 58.31
0-2 0.7% 1.7% 4.1% 0.42× 58.32
0-3 0.1% 1.7% 3.3% 0.52× 58.32
0-4 0.0% 1.7% 0.4% 4.15× 58.32
1-2 1.8% 1.7% 8.9% 0.19× 58.31
1-3 0.4% 1.7% 3.1% 0.55× 58.32
1-4 0.1% 1.7% 0.8% 2.07× 58.32
2-2 2.4% 1.7% 6.6% 0.26× 58.31
2-3 0.5% 1.7% 2.3% 0.75× 58.32
2-4 0.1% 1.7% 0.8% 2.07× 58.32
3-2 2.2% 1.7% 2.9% 0.59× 58.31
3-3 0.4% 1.7% 2.3% 0.75× 58.32
3-4 0.1% 1.7% 0.4% 4.15× 58.32
4-2 1.5% 1.7% 0.6% 2.77× 58.31
4-3 0.3% 1.7% 0.8% 2.07× 58.32
4-4 0.0% 1.7% 0.2% 8.30× 58.32
DNB 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Celtic (2nd half DNB) 89.0% 87.2% — — 1.15
St Johnstone (2nd half DNB) 11.0% 12.8% — — 7.83
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Celtic leading at HT (DNB) 88.9% 89.3% — — 1.12
St Johnstone leading at HT (DNB) 11.1% 10.7% — — 9.36
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Celtic or draw (1X) 94.1% 92.0% 69.0% 1.33× 1.09
Celtic or St Johnstone (12) 87.7% 86.6% 76.7% 1.13× 1.16
St Johnstone or draw (X2) 18.2% 18.7% 54.1% 0.35× 5.34
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Celtic or draw at HT 92.4% 91.5% — — 1.09
Celtic or St Johnstone at HT 68.2% 67.2% — — 1.49
St Johnstone or draw at HT 39.4% 27.5% — — 3.64
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Celtic or draw (1UP) 94.1% 94.2% — — 1.06
St Johnstone or draw (1UP) 19.4% 24.6% — — 4.07
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Celtic or draw in 2nd half 91.7% 92.9% — — 1.08
Celtic or St Johnstone in 2nd half 75.7% 75.6% — — 1.32
St Johnstone or draw in 2nd half 32.6% 36.2% — — 2.76
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half drawn 48.5% 50.1% — — 2.00
Neither half drawn 51.5% 49.9% — — 2.00
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Celtic (DNB) 93.3% 93.4% 59.7% 1.56× 1.07
St Johnstone (DNB) 6.7% 6.6% 40.3% 0.16× 15.11
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Celtic to score first 79.0% 81.6% — — 1.23
St Johnstone to score first 17.4% 17.7% — — 5.66
No goal scored 3.6% 4.4% — — 22.87
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 58.1% 55.0% 47.7% 1.15× 1.82
Both teams to score 41.9% 45.0% 52.3% 0.86× 2.22
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both score & over 2.5 36.1% 38.4% 43.2% 0.89× 2.60
Not both score & under 2.5 29.9% 33.3% 34.1% 0.98× 3.00
Not both score & over 2.5 28.1% 33.3% 13.8% 2.41× 3.00
Both score & under 2.5 5.9% 8.3% 9.3% 0.89× 12.08
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 90.9% 89.0% 83.9% 1.06× 1.12
Both teams to score 2+ 9.1% 11.0% 16.1% 0.68× 9.09
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 76.3% 75.1% — — 1.33
Both teams to score in 2nd half 23.7% 24.9% — — 4.01
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 65.2% 63.0% — — 1.59
Both score 2nd half only 20.2% 21.2% — — 4.73
Both score 1st half only 11.2% 10.7% — — 9.32
Both score in both halves 3.5% 4.9% — — 20.45
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 85.4% 84.7% — — 1.18
Both teams to score by HT 14.6% 15.3% — — 6.53
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A goal in each half 64.2% 59.5% — — 1.68
A half without a goal 35.8% 40.5% — — 2.47
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-3 goals 42.1% 42.2% 45.7% 0.92× 2.37
4-6 goals 37.1% 35.0% 31.2% 1.12× 2.86
0-1 goals 15.8% 20.2% 21.7% 0.93× 4.95
7+ goals 5.0% 7.6% 1.9% 4.08× 13.18
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
St Johnstone to score exactly 0 55.0% 47.3% 33.1% 1.43× 2.12
St Johnstone to score exactly 1 32.9% 33.8% 30.4% 1.11× 2.96
St Johnstone to score exactly 2 9.8% 8.6% 22.5% 0.38× 11.68
St Johnstone to score 3+ 2.3% 4.6% 14.5% 0.32× 21.92
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Celtic to score 3+ 50.9% 43.0% 23.8% 1.81× 2.33
Celtic to score exactly 2 24.5% 23.3% 25.0% 0.93× 4.29
Celtic to score exactly 1 18.0% 18.8% 31.2% 0.60× 5.32
Celtic to score exactly 0 6.6% 10.3% 20.5% 0.51× 9.68
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Celtic leading at HT 60.6% 72.5% — — 1.38
Draw at HT 31.8% 32.8% — — 3.05
St Johnstone leading at HT 7.6% 8.5% — — 11.74
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Celtic -1: 1 61.3% 62.5% — — 1.60
Celtic -1: X 20.5% 23.5% — — 4.25
Celtic -1: 2 18.2% 17.5% — — 5.71
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Celtic (0:1) 61.3% 61.4% 26.4% 2.32× 1.63
Draw (0:1) 20.5% 24.2% 19.6% 1.23× 4.13
St Johnstone (0:1) 18.2% 17.8% 54.1% 0.33× 5.61
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Celtic (0:2) 38.9% 38.6% 12.2% 3.17× 2.59
St Johnstone (0:2) 38.7% 38.6% 73.6% 0.52× 2.59
Draw (0:2) 22.4% 20.3% 14.5% 1.40× 4.93
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
St Johnstone (0:3) 61.1% 65.6% 87.8% 0.75× 1.53
Celtic (0:3) 20.9% 19.2% 5.6% 3.45× 5.20
Draw (0:3) 18.0% 16.3% 6.8% 2.39× 6.15
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
St Johnstone (0:4) 79.1% 81.3% 94.4% 0.86× 1.23
Draw (0:4) 11.3% 9.9% 4.8% 2.07× 10.15
Celtic (0:4) 9.6% 4.7% 1.0% 4.54× 21.34
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Celtic (1:0) 94.1% 92.8% 69.0% 1.34× 1.08
Draw (1:0) 4.6% 3.3% 17.8% 0.19× 30.42
St Johnstone (1:0) 1.3% 3.2% 13.4% 0.24× 30.92
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Celtic (2:0) 98.7% 96.8% 86.6% 1.12× 1.03
Draw (2:0) 1.1% 2.3% 7.6% 0.30× 43.86
St Johnstone (2:0) 0.2% 2.3% 6.0% 0.38× 43.91
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 49.3% 48.7% — — 2.05
1st half highest scoring 28.5% 26.3% — — 3.81
Halves equal 22.2% 24.5% — — 4.09
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Celtic clean sheet 55.0% 53.2% 33.1% 1.61× 1.88
Celtic to concede 45.0% 46.8% 66.9% 0.70× 2.14
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Celtic clean sheet in 1st half 78.7% 78.5% — — 1.27
Celtic to concede in 1st half 21.3% 21.5% — — 4.65
Home clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Celtic clean sheet in 2nd half 69.9% 67.1% — — 1.49
Celtic to concede in 2nd half 30.1% 32.9% — — 3.04
Home corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Celtic over 2.5 corners 96.7% 94.9% — — 1.05
Celtic over 3.5 corners 92.3% 89.2% — — 1.12
Celtic over 4.5 corners 85.5% 86.2% — — 1.16
Celtic over 5.5 corners 76.4% 76.5% — — 1.31
Celtic over 6.5 corners 65.8% 66.7% — — 1.50
Celtic under 6.5 corners 34.2% 33.3% — — 3.00
Celtic under 5.5 corners 23.6% 23.5% — — 4.26
Celtic under 4.5 corners 14.5% 13.8% — — 7.25
Celtic under 3.5 corners 7.7% 10.8% — — 9.28
Celtic under 2.5 corners 3.3% 5.1% — — 19.56
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Celtic over 0.5 goals 93.4% 92.2% 79.5% 1.16× 1.08
Celtic over 1.5 goals 75.3% 77.7% 48.6% 1.60× 1.29
Celtic under 3.5 goals 71.2% 74.2% 92.1% 0.81× 1.35
Celtic over 2.5 goals 50.9% 53.2% 23.8% 2.24× 1.88
Celtic under 2.5 goals 49.1% 46.8% 76.2% 0.61× 2.14
Celtic over 3.5 goals 28.8% 25.8% 7.9% 3.29× 3.88
Celtic under 1.5 goals 24.7% 22.3% 51.4% 0.43× 4.49
Celtic under 0.5 goals 6.6% 7.8% 20.5% 0.38× 12.84
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Celtic over 0.5 in 1st half 68.8% 69.6% — — 1.44
Celtic under 1.5 in 1st half 67.5% 69.5% — — 1.44
Celtic over 1.5 in 1st half 32.5% 30.5% — — 3.27
Celtic under 0.5 in 1st half 31.2% 30.4% — — 3.29
Home highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Celtic scores more in 2nd half 46.0% 47.1% — — 2.13
Celtic scores more in 1st half 28.7% 27.8% — — 3.59
Celtic scores equally in both 25.3% 27.8% — — 3.60
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw (home no bet) 67.7% 64.2% 43.0% 1.49× 1.56
St Johnstone (home no bet) 32.3% 35.8% 57.0% 0.63× 2.79
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Celtic even goals 50.2% 50.7% 51.7% 0.98× 1.97
Celtic odd goals 49.8% 49.3% 48.3% 1.02× 2.03
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 1-0 28.6% 28.5% — — 3.51
HT 0-0 24.5% 24.4% — — 4.10
HT 2-0 16.7% 18.6% — — 5.39
Any other HT score 11.5% 11.0% — — 9.10
HT 1-1 6.8% 6.9% — — 14.55
HT 0-1 5.9% 6.9% — — 14.57
HT 2-1 4.0% 2.4% — — 42.14
HT 0-2 0.7% 2.4% — — 42.36
HT 1-2 0.8% 2.4% — — 42.35
HT 2-2 0.5% 2.4% — — 42.37
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Celtic at HT / Celtic at FT 57.6% 62.1% — — 1.61
Draw at HT / Celtic at FT 21.5% 21.6% — — 4.64
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 7.7% 6.1% — — 16.47
Draw at HT / St Johnstone at FT 2.7% 3.5% — — 28.92
St Johnstone at HT / St Johnstone at FT 2.8% 3.5% — — 28.92
Celtic at HT / Draw at FT 2.5% 3.5% — — 28.93
St Johnstone at HT / Celtic at FT 2.6% 3.5% — — 28.92
St Johnstone at HT / Draw at FT 2.2% 3.5% — — 28.94
Celtic at HT / St Johnstone at FT 0.5% 3.4% — — 29.00
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Celtic to score last 79.0% 77.4% — — 1.29
St Johnstone to score last 17.5% 13.7% — — 7.28
No goal scored 3.6% 4.4% — — 22.87
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 96.4% 95.6% — — 1.05
Celtic to lead by 1 at any time 87.7% 91.3% — — 1.10
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 68.8% 69.4% — — 1.44
Celtic to lead by 2 at any time 65.8% 69.2% — — 1.44
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 42.2% 39.2% — — 2.55
Celtic to lead by 3 at any time 41.7% 39.2% — — 2.55
St Johnstone to lead by 1 at any time 19.4% 14.9% — — 6.73
St Johnstone to lead by 2 at any time 3.2% 1.6% — — 62.11
St Johnstone to lead by 3 at any time 0.4% 1.5% — — 64.83
Most corners 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Celtic most corners 86.5% 86.2% — — 1.16
St Johnstone most corners 8.4% 8.3% — — 11.98
Corners level 5.0% 8.3% — — 12.01
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-5 goals 84.7% 83.4% 87.0% 0.96× 1.20
2-6 goals 79.1% 78.7% 76.7% 1.03× 1.27
1-4 goals 72.6% 72.3% 79.8% 0.91× 1.38
2-5 goals 72.5% 72.3% 71.1% 1.02× 1.38
2-4 goals 60.3% 63.3% 63.8% 0.99× 1.58
3-6 goals 59.2% 59.1% 55.2% 1.07× 1.69
1-3 goals 54.3% 53.2% 61.6% 0.86× 1.88
3-5 goals 52.5% 53.2% 49.6% 1.07× 1.88
2-3 goals 42.1% 43.6% 45.7% 0.95× 2.29
3-4 goals 40.4% 43.6% 42.4% 1.03× 2.29
4-6 goals 37.1% 39.2% 31.2% 1.26× 2.55
1-2 goals 32.2% 35.2% 37.6% 0.94× 2.84
4-5 goals 30.4% 35.2% 25.6% 1.37× 2.84
5-6 goals 18.8% 18.8% 13.0% 1.45× 5.31
7+ goals 5.0% 8.9% 1.9% 4.77× 11.28
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Celtic never behind 77.0% 77.3% — — 1.29
St Johnstone never behind 8.7% 4.7% — — 21.15
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even number of goals 49.9% 50.9% 51.2% 0.99× 1.97
Odd number of goals 50.1% 49.1% 48.8% 1.01× 2.04
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 53.0% 51.7% — — 1.93
Odd goals in 1st half 47.0% 48.3% — — 2.07
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 51.1% 52.0% — — 1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half 48.9% 48.0% — — 2.08
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 goals 96.4% 95.4% 94.2% 1.01× 1.05
Under 5.5 goals 88.3% 87.6% 92.6% 0.95× 1.14
Over 1.5 goals 84.2% 82.3% 78.3% 1.05× 1.22
Under 4.5 goals 76.2% 77.3% 85.3% 0.91× 1.29
Over 2.5 goals 64.2% 61.7% 56.8% 1.09× 1.62
Under 3.5 goals 57.9% 58.6% 67.1% 0.87× 1.71
Over 3.5 goals 42.1% 41.4% 32.9% 1.26× 2.42
Under 2.5 goals 35.8% 38.3% 43.2% 0.89× 2.61
Over 4.5 goals 23.8% 22.7% 14.7% 1.55× 4.40
Under 1.5 goals 15.8% 17.7% 21.7% 0.82× 5.65
Over 5.5 goals 11.7% 12.4% 7.4% 1.67× 8.07
Under 0.5 goals 3.6% 4.6% 5.8% 0.79× 21.82
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 94.6% 92.4% 98.0% 0.94× 1.08
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 86.7% 86.7% 92.0% 0.94× 1.15
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 80.2% 81.1% 72.4% 1.12× 1.23
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 70.8% 72.3% 82.1% 0.88× 1.38
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 54.1% 51.9% 43.2% 1.20× 1.93
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 45.9% 48.1% 56.8% 0.85× 2.08
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 29.2% 27.7% 17.9% 1.54× 3.62
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 19.8% 18.9% 27.6% 0.69× 5.28
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 13.3% 13.3% 8.0% 1.66× 7.54
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 5.4% 7.6% 2.0% 3.85× 13.20
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half 83.2% 85.7% — — 1.17
Over 0.5 in 1st half 75.5% 78.1% — — 1.28
Under 1.5 in 1st half 59.0% 64.3% — — 1.56
Over 1.5 in 1st half 41.0% 35.7% — — 2.80
Under 0.5 in 1st half 24.5% 21.9% — — 4.57
Over 2.5 in 1st half 16.8% 14.3% — — 7.02
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 85.1% 85.2% — — 1.17
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 70.3% 77.7% — — 1.29
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 56.7% 55.1% — — 1.81
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 43.3% 44.9% — — 2.23
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 29.7% 22.3% — — 4.48
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 14.9% 14.8% — — 6.77
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
St Johnstone not to score in both halves 93.6% 90.8% — — 1.10
Celtic to score in both halves 54.2% 55.9% — — 1.79
Celtic not to score in both halves 45.9% 44.1% — — 2.27
St Johnstone to score in both halves 6.4% 9.2% — — 10.92
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Only Celtic scores 51.4% 53.8% 27.5% 1.96× 1.86
Both teams score 41.9% 46.6% 52.3% 0.89× 2.15
Neither team scores 3.6% 4.6% 5.8% 0.80× 21.57
Only St Johnstone scores 3.1% 4.6% 14.9% 0.31× 21.59
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 3 goals 22.1% 22.6% 24.2% 0.93× 4.43
Exactly 2 goals 20.0% 17.5% 21.7% 0.80× 5.73
Exactly 4 goals 18.3% 17.5% 18.4% 0.95× 5.73
Exactly 1 goals 12.2% 12.1% 16.1% 0.75× 8.26
Exactly 5 goals 12.1% 12.1% 7.4% 1.63× 8.26
6 or more goals 11.7% 12.1% 7.4% 1.63× 8.26
Exactly 0 goals 3.6% 4.5% 5.8% 0.77× 22.35
Total goals 1st half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1 goal in 1st half 34.5% 35.8% — — 2.79
No goals in 1st half 24.5% 21.4% — — 4.67
2 goals in 1st half 24.2% 21.4% — — 4.67
3+ goals in 1st half 16.8% 15.7% — — 6.37
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half 56.7% 54.0% — — 1.85
1 goal in 2nd half 28.4% 29.1% — — 3.43
No goals in 2nd half 14.9% 14.6% — — 6.83
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
St Johnstone not to win both halves 99.4% 97.3% — — 1.03
Celtic not to win both halves 59.2% 56.9% — — 1.76
Celtic to win both halves 40.8% 43.1% — — 2.32
St Johnstone to win both halves 0.6% 2.7% — — 36.97
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Celtic to win either half 87.2% 92.2% — — 1.09
St Johnstone to win neither half 84.8% 84.0% — — 1.19
St Johnstone to win either half 15.2% 16.0% — — 6.24
Celtic to win neither half 12.8% 7.8% — — 12.81
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
St Johnstone not to win to nil 96.9% 96.2% 85.1% 1.13× 1.04
Celtic to win to nil 51.4% 53.7% 27.5% 1.96× 1.86
Celtic not to win to nil 48.6% 46.3% 72.5% 0.64× 2.16
St Johnstone to win to nil 3.1% 3.8% 14.9% 0.26× 26.01
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Celtic by 3+ 38.9% 34.8% 12.2% 2.86× 2.87
Celtic by 2 22.4% 24.1% 14.5% 1.67× 4.15
Celtic by 1 20.5% 24.1% 19.6% 1.23× 4.15
Draw 12.3% 11.8% 23.3% 0.50× 8.51
St Johnstone by 1 4.6% 2.7% 17.8% 0.15× 36.83
St Johnstone by 2 1.1% 2.7% 7.6% 0.35× 36.94
St Johnstone by 3+ 0.2% 2.7% 6.0% 0.45× 36.97
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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