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Central Córdoba (Santiago del Estero) v Lanús — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 8 November 2026 · ARG-Liga Profesional · 2627

ARG-Liga Profesional results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily
Central Córdoba (Santiago del Estero) win
30.6%
model 33.4%
Draw
30.5%
model 30.9%
Lanús win
38.9%
model 35.8%

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (648 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

  1. 1-1 14.1%
  2. 0-0 12.4%
  3. 0-1 12.3%
  4. 1-0 11.7%
  5. 1-2 7.3%

Goals

Over 2.536.0% Under 2.564.0%
BTTS yes43.6% BTTS no56.4%
Central Córdoba (Santiago del Estero) 1+64.8% Central Córdoba (Santiago del Estero) 2+28.0%
Lanús 1+66.4% Lanús 2+29.8%

Expected goals 1.04 – 1.09. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence
23/100
Data quality
65/100
Model agreement
96%
★ Best pick
Lanús (+0.5)
Asian handicap · usually 58%
68.7% fair odds 1.46
moderate signal · 1169 settled matches behind the band
★ Most likely to land
Lanús not to score in both halves
Score both halves
81.8% fair odds 1.22
moderate signal · 1007 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

  • Lanús carry the stronger rating, 1497 Elo against 1430.

Risk factors

  • The model's measured edge in this competition is -0.0026 nats, which is not meaningfully better than the base rates.
Why the model thinks this

The price

Lanús have an estimated 38.9% win probability, against 30.6% for Central Córdoba (Santiago del Estero) and 30.5% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.04 for Central Córdoba (Santiago del Estero) and 1.09 for Lanús.

Why Central Córdoba (Santiago del Estero)

Nothing in the data singles out Central Córdoba (Santiago del Estero).

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 30.5%. A combined 2.13 expected goals is a low-scoring profile, and low totals mean more level finishes. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.04 to 1.09. Draws run at 31% in this competition.

Why Lanús can win

Lanús carry the stronger rating, 1497 Elo against 1430.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Central Córdoba (Santiago del Estero), so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Lanús, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Central Córdoba (Santiago del Estero): 47% possession, 11.8 shots a match, 17.2 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Lanús: 47% possession, 15.6 shots a match, 15.2 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-27 10:01 · team_stats 2026-10-27 06:03 · availability 2026-10-27 14:57 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Lanús are the model's most likely outcome at 38.9%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 14.1%. Confidence 23/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
ai-blend 1.04–1.09 0% 0% 0%
dc-xg 0.86–1.03 0-0 16% 29% 38%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Lanús to win 37.9% 36.4% 27.6% 1.32× 2.75
Draw 33.0% 30.4% 30.7% 0.99× 3.29
Central Córdoba (Santiago del Estero) to win 29.1% 27.9% 41.8% 0.67× 3.58
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Lanús & not both score 26.5% 25.2% 17.1% 1.47× 3.97
Central Córdoba (Santiago del Estero) & not both score 20.1% 21.8% 27.7% 0.79× 4.59
Draw & both teams score 17.3% 18.0% 16.0% 1.13× 5.57
Draw & not both score 15.7% 18.0% 14.8% 1.21× 5.57
Lanús & both teams score 11.4% 13.3% 10.6% 1.25× 7.54
Central Córdoba (Santiago del Estero) & both teams score 9.0% 8.3% 14.3% 0.58× 12.00
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Lanús & under 3.5 32.5% 30.8% 23.5% 1.31× 3.25
Draw & under 2.5 29.7% 26.1% 28.2% 0.93× 3.84
Draw & under 3.5 29.7% 26.1% 28.2% 0.93× 3.84
Central Córdoba (Santiago del Estero) & under 3.5 25.5% 26.1% 34.8% 0.75× 3.84
Lanús & over 1.5 23.0% 21.6% 17.4% 1.24× 4.63
Lanús & under 2.5 22.9% 21.6% 14.6% 1.48× 4.63
Central Córdoba (Santiago del Estero) & under 2.5 18.1% 18.0% 23.6% 0.76× 5.56
Central Córdoba (Santiago del Estero) & over 1.5 16.7% 18.0% 27.8% 0.65× 5.56
Draw & over 1.5 17.3% 18.0% 16.0% 1.13× 5.56
Draw & under 1.5 15.7% 18.0% 14.8% 1.21× 5.56
Lanús & under 1.5 14.9% 12.8% 10.3% 1.25× 7.79
Lanús & over 2.5 15.0% 12.8% 13.1% 0.98× 7.79
Central Córdoba (Santiago del Estero) & under 1.5 12.4% 12.8% 14.1% 0.91× 7.79
Central Córdoba (Santiago del Estero) & over 2.5 11.0% 12.8% 18.4% 0.70× 7.79
Lanús & over 3.5 5.4% 7.9% 4.2% 1.88× 12.63
Central Córdoba (Santiago del Estero) & over 3.5 3.7% 4.8% 7.2% 0.67× 20.82
Draw & over 2.5 3.3% 4.8% 2.6% 1.83× 20.82
Draw & over 3.5 3.3% 4.8% 2.6% 1.83× 20.82
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Lanús (1UP) 50.1% 52.2% — — 1.92
Central Córdoba (Santiago del Estero) (1UP) 42.0% 38.6% — — 2.59
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Lanús (2UP) 37.9% 37.4% — — 2.68
Central Córdoba (Santiago del Estero) (2UP) 29.1% 25.3% — — 3.95
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half drawn 44.3% 42.1% — — 2.38
Lanús to win 2nd half 31.9% 34.0% — — 2.94
Central Córdoba (Santiago del Estero) to win 2nd half 23.8% 24.4% — — 4.10
2nd half away goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Lanús under 1.5 in 2nd half 87.3% 87.1% — — 1.15
Lanús under 0.5 in 2nd half 54.0% 52.5% — — 1.91
Lanús over 0.5 in 2nd half 46.0% 47.5% — — 2.11
Lanús over 1.5 in 2nd half 12.7% 12.9% — — 7.76
2nd half home goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Central Córdoba (Santiago del Estero) under 1.5 in 2nd half 91.2% 93.9% — — 1.07
Central Córdoba (Santiago del Estero) under 0.5 in 2nd half 61.2% 63.1% — — 1.59
Central Córdoba (Santiago del Estero) over 0.5 in 2nd half 38.8% 36.9% — — 2.71
Central Córdoba (Santiago del Estero) over 1.5 in 2nd half 8.8% 6.2% — — 16.26
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Lanús (+2.5) 97.5% 96.3% 95.0% 1.01× 1.04
Lanús (+1.5) 90.0% 92.1% 82.3% 1.12× 1.09
Lanús (+0.5) 70.9% 73.6% 58.2% 1.27× 1.36
Central Córdoba (Santiago del Estero) (+0.5) 62.1% 62.9% 72.4% 0.87× 1.59
Lanús (-0.5) 37.9% 37.1% 27.6% 1.34× 2.70
Central Córdoba (Santiago del Estero) (-0.5) 29.1% 26.4% 41.8% 0.63× 3.80
Central Córdoba (Santiago del Estero) (-1.5) 10.0% 7.9% 17.7% 0.45× 12.67
Central Córdoba (Santiago del Estero) (-2.5) 2.5% 3.7% 5.0% 0.73× 27.18
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Lanús to concede 57.8% 62.4% 68.2% 0.92× 1.60
Lanús clean sheet 42.2% 37.6% 31.8% 1.18× 2.66
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Lanús clean sheet in 1st half 69.0% 71.5% — — 1.40
Lanús to concede in 1st half 31.0% 28.5% — — 3.51
Away clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Lanús clean sheet in 2nd half 61.2% 61.7% — — 1.62
Lanús to concede in 2nd half 38.8% 38.3% — — 2.61
Away corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Lanús under 6.5 corners 84.8% 81.4% — — 1.23
Lanús under 5.5 corners 74.9% 71.6% — — 1.40
Lanús over 2.5 corners 72.9% 71.6% — — 1.40
Lanús under 4.5 corners 61.3% 61.7% — — 1.62
Lanús over 3.5 corners 55.4% 57.2% — — 1.75
Lanús under 3.5 corners 44.6% 42.8% — — 2.34
Lanús over 4.5 corners 38.7% 38.3% — — 2.61
Lanús under 2.5 corners 27.1% 28.4% — — 3.52
Lanús over 5.5 corners 25.1% 28.4% — — 3.53
Lanús over 6.5 corners 15.2% 18.6% — — 5.38
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Lanús under 3.5 goals 97.9% 97.5% 98.9% 0.99× 1.03
Lanús under 2.5 goals 91.5% 92.3% 93.4% 0.99× 1.08
Lanús under 1.5 goals 72.6% 71.8% 78.2% 0.92× 1.39
Lanús over 0.5 goals 64.2% 63.2% 57.6% 1.10× 1.58
Lanús under 0.5 goals 35.8% 36.8% 42.4% 0.87× 2.72
Lanús over 1.5 goals 27.4% 28.2% 21.8% 1.29× 3.55
Lanús over 2.5 goals 8.5% 7.7% 6.6% 1.16× 13.06
Lanús over 3.5 goals 2.1% 2.5% 1.1% 2.20× 39.86
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Lanús under 1.5 in 1st half 93.6% 94.0% — — 1.06
Lanús under 0.5 in 1st half 66.3% 70.2% — — 1.43
Lanús over 0.5 in 1st half 33.7% 29.8% — — 3.36
Lanús over 1.5 in 1st half 6.4% 6.0% — — 16.58
Away highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Lanús scores equally in both 45.5% 48.1% — — 2.08
Lanús scores more in 2nd half 34.1% 33.3% — — 3.00
Lanús scores more in 1st half 20.4% 21.7% — — 4.60
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw (away no bet) 53.1% 51.7% 42.3% 1.22× 1.93
Central Córdoba (Santiago del Estero) (away no bet) 46.9% 48.3% 57.7% 0.84× 2.07
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Lanús even goals 56.4% 56.9% 58.4% 0.97× 1.76
Lanús odd goals 43.6% 43.1% 41.6% 1.04× 2.32
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 94.4% 92.1% — — 1.09
Both halves over 1.5 goals 5.6% 7.9% — — 12.64
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both halves under 1.5 goals 56.5% 60.2% — — 1.66
Not both halves under 1.5 43.5% 39.8% — — 2.51
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 37.5% 36.5% — — 2.74
Lanús to score 2+ in a row 22.8% 19.5% — — 5.12
Central Córdoba (Santiago del Estero) to score 2+ in a row 17.0% 16.1% — — 6.20
Either team to score 3+ in a row 9.7% 5.6% — — 18.00
Lanús to score 3+ in a row 6.0% 5.5% — — 18.29
Central Córdoba (Santiago del Estero) to score 3+ in a row 3.7% 2.6% — — 38.69
Corner handicap 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Central Córdoba (Santiago del Estero) corners (+3.5) 88.8% 84.5% — — 1.18
Central Córdoba (Santiago del Estero) corners (+2.5) 82.3% 79.8% — — 1.25
Lanús corners (+3.5) 79.9% 74.8% — — 1.34
Central Córdoba (Santiago del Estero) corners (+1.5) 73.7% 70.8% — — 1.41
Lanús corners (+2.5) 71.0% 70.8% — — 1.41
Lanús corners (+1.5) 60.3% 61.8% — — 1.62
Central Córdoba (Santiago del Estero) corners (-1.5) 39.7% 38.2% — — 2.62
Central Córdoba (Santiago del Estero) corners (-2.5) 29.0% 29.2% — — 3.42
Lanús corners (-1.5) 26.3% 29.2% — — 3.42
Central Córdoba (Santiago del Estero) corners (-3.5) 20.1% 25.2% — — 3.97
Lanús corners (-2.5) 17.7% 20.2% — — 4.95
Lanús corners (-3.5) 11.2% 15.5% — — 6.45
Corner range 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
0-8 corners 49.2% 41.8% — — 2.40
9-11 corners 29.2% 31.2% — — 3.20
12+ corners 21.6% 25.7% — — 3.90
Corners O/U 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 12.5 corners 85.0% 80.7% — — 1.24
Under 11.5 corners 78.4% 76.6% — — 1.31
Under 10.5 corners 70.2% 72.5% — — 1.38
Over 7.5 corners 62.3% 63.3% — — 1.58
Under 9.5 corners 60.3% 63.2% — — 1.58
Over 8.5 corners 50.8% 53.2% — — 1.88
Under 8.5 corners 49.2% 46.8% — — 2.14
Over 9.5 corners 39.7% 36.8% — — 2.72
Under 7.5 corners 37.7% 36.8% — — 2.72
Over 10.5 corners 29.8% 27.5% — — 3.64
Over 11.5 corners 21.6% 23.4% — — 4.27
Over 12.5 corners 15.0% 19.3% — — 5.18
Corners Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of corners 50.0% 50.2% — — 1.99
Even number of corners 50.0% 49.8% — — 2.01
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
0-0 15.7% 13.8% 14.8% 0.93× 7.24
0-1 14.9% 11.5% 10.3% 1.12× 8.71
1-1 14.0% 11.5% 13.5% 0.85× 8.71
1-0 12.4% 11.5% 14.1% 0.81× 8.71
0-2 8.0% 7.4% 4.4% 1.66× 13.51
1-2 6.9% 7.4% 7.1% 1.05× 13.51
2-0 5.6% 7.4% 9.6% 0.77× 13.51
2-1 5.8% 7.4% 8.7% 0.85× 13.51
0-3 2.7% 1.7% 2.1% 0.84× 58.30
0-4 0.7% 1.7% 0.6% 3.01× 58.32
1-3 2.3% 1.7% 1.9% 0.88× 58.31
1-4 0.6% 1.7% 0.3% 5.01× 58.32
2-2 3.0% 1.7% 2.3% 0.75× 58.30
2-3 1.0% 1.7% 1.5% 1.16× 58.31
2-4 0.3% 1.7% 0.1% 15.04× 58.32
3-0 1.6% 1.7% 2.7% 0.63× 58.31
3-1 1.7% 1.7% 3.1% 0.56× 58.31
3-2 0.9% 1.7% 1.6% 1.07× 58.31
3-3 0.3% 1.7% 0.3% 5.01× 58.32
3-4 0.1% 1.7% 0.1% 15.04× 58.32
4-0 0.3% 1.7% 1.1% 1.50× 58.32
4-1 0.4% 1.7% 0.8% 2.15× 58.32
4-2 0.2% 1.7% 0.3% 5.01× 58.32
4-3 0.1% 1.7% 0.2% 7.52× 58.32
4-4 0.0% 1.7% 0.2% 7.52× 58.32
Any other score 0.6% 1.7% 0.9% 1.88× 58.32
DNB 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Lanús (2nd half DNB) 57.3% 59.5% — — 1.68
Central Córdoba (Santiago del Estero) (2nd half DNB) 42.7% 40.5% — — 2.47
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Lanús leading at HT (DNB) 53.1% 56.2% — — 1.78
Central Córdoba (Santiago del Estero) leading at HT (DNB) 46.9% 43.8% — — 2.28
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Lanús or draw (X2) 70.9% 72.1% 58.2% 1.24× 1.39
Central Córdoba (Santiago del Estero) or Lanús (12) 67.0% 69.6% 69.3% 1.00× 1.44
Central Córdoba (Santiago del Estero) or draw (1X) 62.1% 63.7% 72.4% 0.88× 1.57
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Lanús or draw at HT 78.1% 79.6% — — 1.26
Central Córdoba (Santiago del Estero) or draw at HT 75.2% 79.5% — — 1.26
Central Córdoba (Santiago del Estero) or Lanús at HT 46.8% 51.2% — — 1.95
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Lanús or draw (1UP) 70.9% 79.5% — — 1.26
Central Córdoba (Santiago del Estero) or draw (1UP) 62.1% 71.6% — — 1.40
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Lanús or draw in 2nd half 76.2% 75.6% — — 1.32
Central Córdoba (Santiago del Estero) or draw in 2nd half 68.1% 66.0% — — 1.52
Central Córdoba (Santiago del Estero) or Lanús in 2nd half 55.8% 57.9% — — 1.73
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half drawn 73.3% 71.3% — — 1.40
Neither half drawn 26.7% 28.7% — — 3.48
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Lanús (DNB) 56.6% 58.1% 39.7% 1.46× 1.72
Central Córdoba (Santiago del Estero) (DNB) 43.4% 41.9% 60.3% 0.70× 2.39
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Lanús to score first 45.8% 45.8% — — 2.19
Central Córdoba (Santiago del Estero) to score first 38.5% 32.8% — — 3.05
No goal scored 15.7% 16.8% — — 5.94
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 62.3% 56.6% 59.4% 0.95× 1.77
Both teams to score 37.7% 43.4% 40.6% 1.07× 2.31
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both score & under 2.5 56.7% 47.4% 52.8% 0.90× 2.11
Both score & over 2.5 23.7% 27.9% 27.3% 1.02× 3.59
Both score & under 2.5 14.0% 12.4% 13.5% 0.92× 8.09
Not both score & over 2.5 5.6% 8.3% 6.7% 1.23× 12.08
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 94.2% 89.0% 94.1% 0.95× 1.12
Both teams to score 2+ 5.9% 11.0% 5.9% 1.85× 9.12
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 81.9% 73.2% — — 1.37
Both teams to score in 2nd half 18.1% 26.8% — — 3.73
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 73.3% 68.8% — — 1.45
Both score 2nd half only 16.2% 14.9% — — 6.70
Both score 1st half only 8.7% 6.8% — — 14.67
Both score in both halves 1.9% 4.8% — — 20.80
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 89.5% 85.2% — — 1.17
Both teams to score by HT 10.5% 14.8% — — 6.77
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half without a goal 63.4% 59.4% — — 1.68
A goal in each half 36.6% 40.6% — — 2.47
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-3 goals 44.6% 42.2% 47.3% 0.89× 2.37
0-1 goals 43.1% 42.2% 39.0% 1.08× 2.37
4-6 goals 12.0% 16.9% 13.5% 1.26× 5.91
7+ goals 0.3% 1.8% 0.5% 4.02× 54.53
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Lanús to score exactly 1 36.8% 35.9% 35.9% 1.00× 2.78
Lanús to score exactly 0 35.8% 35.9% 42.4% 0.85× 2.79
Lanús to score exactly 2 18.9% 19.5% 15.3% 1.28× 5.12
Lanús to score 3+ 8.5% 8.6% 6.6% 1.29× 11.69
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Central Córdoba (Santiago del Estero) to score exactly 1 36.4% 35.5% 36.5% 0.97× 2.81
Central Córdoba (Santiago del Estero) to score exactly 0 42.2% 35.1% 31.8% 1.10× 2.85
Central Córdoba (Santiago del Estero) to score exactly 2 15.7% 18.8% 21.8% 0.86× 5.33
Central Córdoba (Santiago del Estero) to score 3+ 5.7% 10.3% 10.1% 1.02× 9.69
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw at HT 53.2% 48.8% — — 2.05
Lanús leading at HT 24.8% 20.5% — — 4.88
Central Córdoba (Santiago del Estero) leading at HT 21.9% 20.4% — — 4.91
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Lanús -1: 1 62.1% 62.5% — — 1.60
Lanús -1: X 22.9% 23.5% — — 4.25
Lanús -1: 2 15.0% 17.5% — — 5.72
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Lanús (0:1) 70.9% 71.0% 58.2% 1.22× 1.41
Draw (0:1) 19.1% 17.8% 24.3% 0.73× 5.61
Central Córdoba (Santiago del Estero) (0:1) 10.0% 9.3% 17.7% 0.53× 10.77
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Lanús (0:2) 90.0% 90.7% 82.3% 1.10× 1.10
Draw (0:2) 7.5% 7.7% 12.8% 0.60× 13.06
Central Córdoba (Santiago del Estero) (0:2) 2.5% 3.7% 5.0% 0.75× 26.76
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Lanús (0:3) 97.5% 96.6% 95.0% 1.02× 1.04
Draw (0:3) 2.0% 2.4% 3.4% 0.70× 42.05
Central Córdoba (Santiago del Estero) (0:3) 0.5% 2.4% 1.7% 1.39× 42.12
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Lanús (0:4) 99.5% 98.1% 98.3% 1.00× 1.02
Draw (0:4) 0.4% 1.2% 1.3% 0.97× 81.92
Central Córdoba (Santiago del Estero) (0:4) 0.1% 1.2% 0.6% 2.14× 81.96
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Central Córdoba (Santiago del Estero) (1:0) 62.1% 65.3% 72.4% 0.90× 1.53
Draw (1:0) 22.9% 21.7% 18.6% 1.17× 4.61
Lanús (1:0) 15.0% 17.1% 9.1% 1.87× 5.85
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Central Córdoba (Santiago del Estero) (2:0) 85.0% 84.6% 90.9% 0.93× 1.18
Draw (2:0) 10.6% 10.3% 6.3% 1.64× 9.73
Lanús (2:0) 4.4% 2.3% 3.0% 0.77× 43.65
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 42.5% 45.2% — — 2.21
Halves equal 32.2% 31.9% — — 3.14
1st half highest scoring 25.2% 26.2% — — 3.82
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Central Córdoba (Santiago del Estero) to concede 64.2% 63.7% 57.6% 1.11× 1.57
Central Córdoba (Santiago del Estero) clean sheet 35.8% 36.3% 42.4% 0.86× 2.75
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Central Córdoba (Santiago del Estero) clean sheet in 1st half 66.3% 70.5% — — 1.42
Central Córdoba (Santiago del Estero) to concede in 1st half 33.7% 29.5% — — 3.39
Home clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Central Córdoba (Santiago del Estero) clean sheet in 2nd half 54.0% 52.6% — — 1.90
Central Córdoba (Santiago del Estero) to concede in 2nd half 46.0% 47.4% — — 2.11
Home corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Central Córdoba (Santiago del Estero) over 2.5 corners 80.3% 81.0% — — 1.24
Central Córdoba (Santiago del Estero) under 6.5 corners 76.9% 76.5% — — 1.31
Central Córdoba (Santiago del Estero) over 3.5 corners 65.2% 66.7% — — 1.50
Central Córdoba (Santiago del Estero) under 5.5 corners 65.2% 66.7% — — 1.50
Central Córdoba (Santiago del Estero) under 4.5 corners 50.7% 52.6% — — 1.90
Central Córdoba (Santiago del Estero) over 4.5 corners 49.3% 47.4% — — 2.11
Central Córdoba (Santiago del Estero) under 3.5 corners 34.8% 33.3% — — 3.00
Central Córdoba (Santiago del Estero) over 5.5 corners 34.8% 33.3% — — 3.00
Central Córdoba (Santiago del Estero) over 6.5 corners 23.1% 23.5% — — 4.26
Central Córdoba (Santiago del Estero) under 2.5 corners 19.7% 19.0% — — 5.26
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Central Córdoba (Santiago del Estero) under 3.5 goals 98.8% 96.4% 97.1% 0.99× 1.04
Central Córdoba (Santiago del Estero) under 2.5 goals 94.3% 92.2% 89.9% 1.03× 1.08
Central Córdoba (Santiago del Estero) under 1.5 goals 78.6% 77.8% 68.2% 1.14× 1.29
Central Córdoba (Santiago del Estero) over 0.5 goals 57.8% 58.7% 68.2% 0.86× 1.71
Central Córdoba (Santiago del Estero) under 0.5 goals 42.2% 41.3% 31.8% 1.30× 2.42
Central Córdoba (Santiago del Estero) over 1.5 goals 21.4% 22.2% 31.8% 0.70× 4.50
Central Córdoba (Santiago del Estero) over 2.5 goals 5.7% 7.8% 10.1% 0.77× 12.85
Central Córdoba (Santiago del Estero) over 3.5 goals 1.2% 3.6% 2.9% 1.27× 27.63
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Central Córdoba (Santiago del Estero) under 1.5 in 1st half 94.6% 94.9% — — 1.05
Central Córdoba (Santiago del Estero) under 0.5 in 1st half 69.0% 69.6% — — 1.44
Central Córdoba (Santiago del Estero) over 0.5 in 1st half 31.0% 30.4% — — 3.29
Central Córdoba (Santiago del Estero) over 1.5 in 1st half 5.4% 5.1% — — 19.69
Home highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Central Córdoba (Santiago del Estero) scores equally in both 50.3% 57.8% — — 1.73
Central Córdoba (Santiago del Estero) scores more in 2nd half 29.1% 27.9% — — 3.59
Central Córdoba (Santiago del Estero) scores more in 1st half 20.6% 20.9% — — 4.78
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Lanús (home no bet) 53.5% 51.5% 47.4% 1.09× 1.94
Draw (home no bet) 46.5% 48.5% 52.6% 0.92× 2.06
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Central Córdoba (Santiago del Estero) even goals 58.9% 55.3% 55.6% 0.99× 1.81
Central Córdoba (Santiago del Estero) odd goals 41.1% 44.7% 44.4% 1.01× 2.24
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 0-0 45.9% 46.3% — — 2.16
HT 0-1 18.7% 18.6% — — 5.38
HT 1-0 16.9% 18.6% — — 5.39
HT 1-1 7.1% 6.9% — — 14.55
HT 0-2 3.9% 2.4% — — 42.17
HT 2-0 3.1% 2.4% — — 42.22
HT 1-2 1.4% 2.4% — — 42.33
Any other HT score 1.5% 2.4% — — 42.32
HT 2-1 1.3% 2.4% — — 42.34
HT 2-2 0.3% 2.4% — — 42.40
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 24.2% 21.7% — — 4.62
Lanús at HT / Lanús at FT 19.6% 16.8% — — 5.95
Draw at HT / Lanús at FT 16.7% 16.8% — — 5.97
Central Córdoba (Santiago del Estero) at HT / Central Córdoba (Santiago del Estero) at FT 15.6% 16.7% — — 5.97
Draw at HT / Central Córdoba (Santiago del Estero) at FT 12.4% 12.7% — — 7.89
Central Córdoba (Santiago del Estero) at HT / Draw at FT 4.7% 3.5% — — 28.86
Lanús at HT / Draw at FT 4.1% 3.5% — — 28.89
Central Córdoba (Santiago del Estero) at HT / Lanús at FT 1.6% 3.5% — — 28.98
Lanús at HT / Central Córdoba (Santiago del Estero) at FT 1.1% 3.4% — — 29.00
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Lanús to score last 45.8% 46.3% — — 2.16
Central Córdoba (Santiago del Estero) to score last 38.4% 38.7% — — 2.58
No goal scored 15.7% 12.9% — — 7.77
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 84.3% 88.0% — — 1.14
Lanús to lead by 1 at any time 50.1% 50.6% — — 1.98
Central Córdoba (Santiago del Estero) to lead by 1 at any time 42.0% 39.2% — — 2.55
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 31.6% 29.7% — — 3.37
Lanús to lead by 2 at any time 18.5% 14.8% — — 6.74
Central Córdoba (Santiago del Estero) to lead by 2 at any time 13.1% 10.6% — — 9.42
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 8.4% 6.7% — — 15.00
Lanús to lead by 3 at any time 5.2% 6.6% — — 15.14
Central Córdoba (Santiago del Estero) to lead by 3 at any time 3.1% 1.6% — — 62.24
Most corners 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Central Córdoba (Santiago del Estero) most corners 51.5% 51.6% — — 1.94
Lanús most corners 36.8% 39.3% — — 2.54
Corners level 11.7% 10.4% — — 9.59
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-5 goals 83.0% 83.4% 84.3% 0.99× 1.20
1-4 goals 79.9% 78.7% 79.9% 0.98× 1.27
1-3 goals 71.9% 72.3% 71.5% 1.01× 1.38
2-6 goals 56.6% 59.1% 60.7% 0.97× 1.69
2-5 goals 55.6% 59.1% 60.1% 0.98× 1.69
1-2 goals 55.0% 53.2% 51.4% 1.03× 1.88
2-4 goals 52.6% 53.2% 55.8% 0.95× 1.88
2-3 goals 44.6% 43.6% 47.3% 0.92× 2.29
3-6 goals 29.0% 30.2% 33.5% 0.90× 3.31
3-5 goals 28.0% 30.2% 33.0% 0.92× 3.31
3-4 goals 25.0% 24.5% 28.6% 0.85× 4.09
4-6 goals 12.0% 14.8% 13.5% 1.10× 6.76
4-5 goals 11.0% 14.8% 12.9% 1.15× 6.76
5-6 goals 4.0% 2.6% 5.0% 0.51× 39.09
7+ goals 0.3% 2.5% 0.5% 5.59× 39.26
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Lanús never behind 42.2% 48.7% — — 2.05
Central Córdoba (Santiago del Estero) never behind 34.2% 36.4% — — 2.75
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of goals 47.6% 50.9% 48.9% 1.04× 1.97
Even number of goals 52.4% 49.1% 51.1% 0.96× 2.04
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 60.7% 58.4% — — 1.71
Odd goals in 1st half 39.3% 41.6% — — 2.40
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 55.9% 59.1% — — 1.69
Odd goals in 2nd half 44.1% 40.9% — — 2.44
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 5.5 goals 98.7% 95.4% 99.0% 0.96× 1.05
Under 4.5 goals 95.7% 95.4% 94.6% 1.01× 1.05
Under 3.5 goals 87.7% 87.6% 86.2% 1.02× 1.14
Over 0.5 goals 84.3% 82.3% 85.2% 0.97× 1.22
Under 2.5 goals 70.7% 72.5% 66.1% 1.10× 1.38
Over 1.5 goals 56.9% 58.6% 61.0% 0.96× 1.71
Under 1.5 goals 43.1% 41.4% 39.0% 1.06× 2.42
Over 2.5 goals 29.3% 27.5% 33.9% 0.81× 3.63
Under 0.5 goals 15.7% 17.7% 14.8% 1.19× 5.65
Over 3.5 goals 12.3% 12.4% 13.8% 0.90× 8.07
Over 4.5 goals 4.3% 4.6% 5.4% 0.86× 21.81
Over 5.5 goals 1.3% 4.6% 1.0% 4.46× 21.86
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 99.7% 97.2% 99.5% 0.98× 1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 98.7% 97.2% 98.9% 0.98× 1.03
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 95.3% 97.2% 94.1% 1.03× 1.03
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 85.2% 86.7% 82.7% 1.05× 1.15
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 59.5% 55.8% 53.5% 1.04× 1.79
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 40.5% 44.2% 46.5% 0.95× 2.26
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 14.8% 13.3% 17.3% 0.77× 7.53
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 4.7% 2.8% 5.9% 0.48× 35.56
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 1.3% 2.8% 1.1% 2.61× 35.66
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 0.3% 2.8% 0.5% 6.11× 35.68
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half 95.5% 96.3% — — 1.04
Under 1.5 in 1st half 81.5% 85.6% — — 1.17
Over 0.5 in 1st half 54.1% 53.4% — — 1.87
Under 0.5 in 1st half 45.9% 46.6% — — 2.15
Over 1.5 in 1st half 18.5% 14.4% — — 6.97
Over 2.5 in 1st half 4.5% 3.7% — — 27.38
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 89.9% 85.5% — — 1.17
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 69.4% 68.6% — — 1.46
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 66.7% 68.4% — — 1.46
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 33.3% 31.6% — — 3.17
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 30.6% 31.4% — — 3.19
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 10.1% 14.5% — — 6.90
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Central Córdoba (Santiago del Estero) not to score in both halves 88.0% 85.6% — — 1.17
Lanús not to score in both halves 84.5% 84.4% — — 1.19
Lanús to score in both halves 15.5% 15.6% — — 6.41
Central Córdoba (Santiago del Estero) to score in both halves 12.0% 14.4% — — 6.97
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams score 37.7% 39.9% 40.6% 0.98× 2.51
Only Lanús scores 26.5% 26.1% 17.1% 1.52× 3.84
Only Central Córdoba (Santiago del Estero) scores 20.1% 22.2% 27.7% 0.80× 4.50
Neither team scores 15.7% 16.0% 14.8% 1.08× 6.24
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 2 goals 27.6% 24.9% 27.3% 0.91× 4.02
Exactly 1 goals 27.4% 24.9% 24.3% 1.02× 4.02
Exactly 3 goals 17.0% 17.5% 20.2% 0.86× 5.73
Exactly 0 goals 15.7% 17.5% 14.8% 1.18× 5.73
Exactly 4 goals 8.0% 7.6% 8.6% 0.89× 13.14
Exactly 5 goals 3.0% 4.5% 4.4% 1.01× 22.35
6 or more goals 1.3% 4.5% 1.0% 4.35× 22.38
Total goals 1st half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
No goals in 1st half 45.9% 46.3% — — 2.16
1 goal in 1st half 35.6% 37.2% — — 2.69
2 goals in 1st half 14.1% 10.9% — — 9.17
3+ goals in 1st half 4.5% 3.7% — — 27.38
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1 goal in 2nd half 36.2% 39.7% — — 2.52
No goals in 2nd half 33.3% 33.9% — — 2.95
2+ goals in 2nd half 30.6% 33.8% — — 2.96
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Central Córdoba (Santiago del Estero) not to win both halves 94.7% 94.2% — — 1.06
Lanús not to win both halves 92.0% 94.1% — — 1.06
Lanús to win both halves 8.0% 5.9% — — 17.08
Central Córdoba (Santiago del Estero) to win both halves 5.3% 5.8% — — 17.28
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Central Córdoba (Santiago del Estero) to win neither half 59.5% 59.1% — — 1.69
Lanús to win neither half 51.3% 54.3% — — 1.84
Lanús to win either half 48.7% 45.7% — — 2.19
Central Córdoba (Santiago del Estero) to win either half 40.5% 40.9% — — 2.45
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Central Córdoba (Santiago del Estero) not to win to nil 79.9% 78.2% 72.3% 1.08× 1.28
Lanús not to win to nil 73.5% 75.3% 82.9% 0.91× 1.33
Lanús to win to nil 26.5% 24.7% 17.1% 1.44× 4.05
Central Córdoba (Santiago del Estero) to win to nil 20.1% 21.8% 27.7% 0.79× 4.58
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw 33.0% 27.7% 30.7% 0.90× 3.61
Lanús by 1 22.9% 24.1% 18.6% 1.30× 4.15
Central Córdoba (Santiago del Estero) by 1 19.1% 17.1% 24.3% 0.70× 5.86
Lanús by 2 10.6% 11.8% 6.3% 1.87× 8.51
Central Córdoba (Santiago del Estero) by 2 7.5% 7.2% 12.8% 0.56× 13.91
Lanús by 3+ 4.4% 2.7% 3.0% 0.92× 36.83
Central Córdoba (Santiago del Estero) by 3+ 2.5% 2.7% 5.0% 0.54× 36.89
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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