Cerezo Osaka v Machida Zelvia — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 12 December 2026 · JPN-J League · 2627

JPN-J League results-only Prediction generated 18 Sep 2026, 10:37 UTC

Cerezo Osaka

05:00 UTC

Machida Zelvia

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 21 Oct, 11:05 · 1,242h before kick-off

Cerezo Osaka win

30.8%

model 31.3%

Draw

23.8%

model 23.9%

Machida Zelvia win

45.4%

model 44.7%

312445

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (624 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 11.2%
1-2 9.2%
0-1 9.0%
2-1 7.4%
1-0 7.4%

Goals

Over 2.5	55.5%	Under 2.5	44.5%
BTTS yes	57.9%	BTTS no	42.1%
Cerezo Osaka 1+	72.8%	Cerezo Osaka 2+	37.4%
Machida Zelvia 1+	79.9%	Machida Zelvia 2+	47.6%

Expected goals 1.30 – 1.60. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

79/100

Data quality

65/100

Model agreement

98%

★ Best pick

3-6 goals

Multi goal · usually 44%

52.3% fair odds 1.91

strong signal · 1995 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Over 0.5 in 2nd half

Over/Under 2HT

82.0% fair odds 1.22

moderate signal · 1578 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Machida Zelvia carry the stronger rating, 1671 Elo against 1569.
Form is good: 2.20 points a match from the last five.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Machida Zelvia have an estimated 45.4% win probability, against 30.8% for Cerezo Osaka and 23.8% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.30 for Cerezo Osaka and 1.60 for Machida Zelvia.

Why Cerezo Osaka

Nothing in the data singles out Cerezo Osaka.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 23.8%. Draws run at 26% in this competition.

Why Machida Zelvia can win

Machida Zelvia carry the stronger rating, 1671 Elo against 1569. Form is good: 2.20 points a match from the last five.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Cerezo Osaka, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Machida Zelvia, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Cerezo Osaka: 56% possession, 11.0 shots a match, 13.2 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Machida Zelvia: 50% possession, 14.6 shots a match, 13.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-21 11:56 · team_stats 2026-10-20 06:04 · availability 2026-10-21 15:05 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Machida Zelvia are the model's most likely outcome at 45.4%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 11.2%. Confidence 79/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	312445	1.30–1.60	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	302446	1.21–1.56	1-1 12%	52%	55%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Machida Zelvia to win	45.8%	47.3%	31.1%	1.52×	2.11
Cerezo Osaka to win	29.8%	27.9%	43.0%	0.65×	3.58
Draw	24.4%	24.4%	26.1%	0.94×	4.09

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Machida Zelvia & not both score	23.8%	21.8%	17.8%	1.22×	4.58
Machida Zelvia & both teams score	21.9%	21.8%	13.4%	1.62×	4.59
Draw & both teams score	18.5%	18.0%	19.2%	0.94×	5.57
Cerezo Osaka & both teams score	14.8%	13.3%	18.1%	0.73×	7.53
Cerezo Osaka & not both score	15.0%	13.3%	25.0%	0.53×	7.53
Draw & not both score	6.0%	8.3%	7.0%	1.18×	12.02

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Machida Zelvia & over 1.5	35.7%	34.9%	21.3%	1.64×	2.87
Machida Zelvia & under 3.5	30.8%	30.8%	23.4%	1.31×	3.25
Machida Zelvia & over 2.5	28.1%	26.1%	17.8%	1.46×	3.84
Cerezo Osaka & over 1.5	22.0%	21.6%	30.3%	0.71×	4.63
Cerezo Osaka & under 3.5	21.4%	21.6%	33.1%	0.65×	4.63
Draw & over 1.5	18.5%	18.0%	19.2%	0.94×	5.56
Draw & under 2.5	17.5%	18.0%	20.3%	0.89×	5.56
Draw & under 3.5	17.5%	18.0%	20.3%	0.89×	5.56
Machida Zelvia & under 2.5	17.6%	18.0%	13.4%	1.34×	5.56
Cerezo Osaka & over 2.5	17.4%	18.0%	23.1%	0.78×	5.56
Machida Zelvia & over 3.5	14.9%	12.8%	7.8%	1.64×	7.79
Cerezo Osaka & under 2.5	12.4%	12.8%	20.0%	0.64×	7.79
Machida Zelvia & under 1.5	10.0%	12.8%	10.0%	1.28×	7.79
Cerezo Osaka & under 1.5	7.8%	7.9%	12.8%	0.62×	12.63
Cerezo Osaka & over 3.5	8.4%	7.9%	10.0%	0.79×	12.63
Draw & under 1.5	6.0%	7.9%	7.0%	1.13×	12.63
Draw & over 2.5	6.9%	7.9%	5.9%	1.33×	12.63
Draw & over 3.5	6.9%	7.9%	5.9%	1.33×	12.63

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Machida Zelvia (1UP)	61.3%	62.8%	—	—	1.59
Cerezo Osaka (1UP)	47.6%	44.0%	—	—	2.28

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Machida Zelvia (2UP)	45.8%	50.0%	—	—	2.00
Cerezo Osaka (2UP)	29.8%	25.4%	—	—	3.94

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Machida Zelvia to win 2nd half	39.8%	36.2%	—	—	2.76
2nd half drawn	34.4%	34.3%	—	—	2.91
Cerezo Osaka to win 2nd half	25.8%	25.7%	—	—	3.89

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Machida Zelvia under 1.5 in 2nd half	75.9%	78.9%	—	—	1.27
Machida Zelvia over 0.5 in 2nd half	60.8%	60.0%	—	—	1.67
Machida Zelvia under 0.5 in 2nd half	39.2%	40.0%	—	—	2.50
Machida Zelvia over 1.5 in 2nd half	24.1%	21.1%	—	—	4.74

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cerezo Osaka under 1.5 in 2nd half	84.8%	82.6%	—	—	1.21
Cerezo Osaka under 0.5 in 2nd half	50.1%	55.0%	—	—	1.82
Cerezo Osaka over 0.5 in 2nd half	49.9%	45.0%	—	—	2.22
Cerezo Osaka over 1.5 in 2nd half	15.2%	17.4%	—	—	5.76

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Machida Zelvia (+2.5)	96.1%	96.3%	93.8%	1.03×	1.04
Machida Zelvia (+1.5)	87.8%	88.5%	81.9%	1.08×	1.13
Machida Zelvia (+0.5)	70.2%	73.6%	57.0%	1.29×	1.36
Cerezo Osaka (+0.5)	54.2%	52.4%	68.9%	0.76×	1.91
Machida Zelvia (-0.5)	45.8%	47.6%	31.1%	1.53×	2.10
Cerezo Osaka (-0.5)	29.8%	26.4%	43.0%	0.61×	3.79
Cerezo Osaka (-1.5)	12.2%	11.5%	18.1%	0.64×	8.67
Cerezo Osaka (-2.5)	3.9%	3.7%	6.3%	0.59×	27.05

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Machida Zelvia to concede	70.2%	76.7%	75.3%	1.02×	1.30
Machida Zelvia clean sheet	29.8%	23.3%	24.7%	0.95×	4.29

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Machida Zelvia clean sheet in 1st half	59.4%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Machida Zelvia to concede in 1st half	40.6%	42.9%	—	—	2.33

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Machida Zelvia clean sheet in 2nd half	50.1%	54.7%	—	—	1.83
Machida Zelvia to concede in 2nd half	49.9%	45.3%	—	—	2.21

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Machida Zelvia over 2.5 corners	80.0%	81.4%	—	—	1.23
Machida Zelvia under 6.5 corners	78.5%	76.0%	—	—	1.32
Machida Zelvia under 5.5 corners	66.8%	67.6%	—	—	1.48
Machida Zelvia over 3.5 corners	64.5%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Machida Zelvia under 4.5 corners	52.0%	53.1%	—	—	1.89
Machida Zelvia over 4.5 corners	48.0%	47.0%	—	—	2.13
Machida Zelvia under 3.5 corners	35.5%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Machida Zelvia over 5.5 corners	33.2%	32.4%	—	—	3.09
Machida Zelvia over 6.5 corners	21.5%	24.0%	—	—	4.17
Machida Zelvia under 2.5 corners	20.0%	18.6%	—	—	5.38

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Machida Zelvia under 3.5 goals	92.6%	92.3%	95.9%	0.96×	1.08
Machida Zelvia under 2.5 goals	79.3%	76.3%	87.8%	0.87×	1.31
Machida Zelvia over 0.5 goals	79.0%	76.3%	68.1%	1.12×	1.31
Machida Zelvia under 1.5 goals	53.7%	53.6%	68.3%	0.78×	1.87
Machida Zelvia over 1.5 goals	46.3%	46.4%	31.7%	1.46×	2.15
Machida Zelvia under 0.5 goals	21.0%	23.7%	31.9%	0.74×	4.21
Machida Zelvia over 2.5 goals	20.7%	23.7%	12.2%	1.95×	4.22
Machida Zelvia over 3.5 goals	7.4%	7.7%	4.1%	1.89×	13.06

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Machida Zelvia under 1.5 in 1st half	87.0%	89.3%	—	—	1.12
Machida Zelvia under 0.5 in 1st half	53.5%	55.5%	—	—	1.80
Machida Zelvia over 0.5 in 1st half	46.5%	44.5%	—	—	2.25
Machida Zelvia over 1.5 in 1st half	13.0%	10.7%	—	—	9.33

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Machida Zelvia scores more in 2nd half	41.4%	43.4%	—	—	2.31
Machida Zelvia scores equally in both	35.2%	37.3%	—	—	2.68
Machida Zelvia scores more in 1st half	23.4%	22.0%	—	—	4.55

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cerezo Osaka (away no bet)	54.9%	51.8%	62.2%	0.83×	1.93
Draw (away no bet)	45.1%	48.2%	37.8%	1.28×	2.07

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Machida Zelvia even goals	52.2%	52.6%	54.2%	0.97×	1.90
Machida Zelvia odd goals	47.8%	47.4%	45.8%	1.04×	2.11

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	84.6%	82.8%	—	—	1.21
Both halves over 1.5 goals	15.4%	17.2%	—	—	5.82

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	64.7%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Both halves under 1.5 goals	35.3%	42.1%	—	—	2.38

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	56.6%	55.2%	—	—	1.81
Machida Zelvia to score 2+ in a row	37.8%	36.6%	—	—	2.73
Cerezo Osaka to score 2+ in a row	25.4%	25.2%	—	—	3.98
Either team to score 3+ in a row	20.2%	19.6%	—	—	5.11
Machida Zelvia to score 3+ in a row	13.6%	12.1%	—	—	8.28
Cerezo Osaka to score 3+ in a row	6.9%	5.6%	—	—	17.99

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Machida Zelvia corners (+3.5)	86.4%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Cerezo Osaka corners (+3.5)	83.2%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Machida Zelvia corners (+2.5)	79.1%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
Cerezo Osaka corners (+2.5)	75.0%	70.8%	—	—	1.41
Machida Zelvia corners (+1.5)	69.6%	65.9%	—	—	1.52
Cerezo Osaka corners (+1.5)	64.8%	61.9%	—	—	1.62
Machida Zelvia corners (-1.5)	35.2%	38.1%	—	—	2.62
Cerezo Osaka corners (-1.5)	30.4%	34.1%	—	—	2.93
Machida Zelvia corners (-2.5)	25.0%	29.2%	—	—	3.42
Cerezo Osaka corners (-2.5)	20.9%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
Machida Zelvia corners (-3.5)	16.8%	20.2%	—	—	4.94
Cerezo Osaka corners (-3.5)	13.6%	15.5%	—	—	6.45

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	46.4%	41.7%	—	—	2.40
9-11 corners	30.4%	33.2%	—	—	3.01
12+ corners	23.2%	25.7%	—	—	3.90

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	83.8%	80.7%	—	—	1.24
Under 11.5 corners	76.8%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Under 10.5 corners	68.1%	67.8%	—	—	1.48
Over 7.5 corners	65.2%	67.8%	—	—	1.48
Under 9.5 corners	57.7%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Over 8.5 corners	53.6%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Under 8.5 corners	46.4%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Over 9.5 corners	42.3%	42.1%	—	—	2.37
Under 7.5 corners	34.8%	32.2%	—	—	3.11
Over 10.5 corners	32.0%	32.2%	—	—	3.11
Over 11.5 corners	23.2%	23.4%	—	—	4.27
Over 12.5 corners	16.2%	19.3%	—	—	5.18

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.1%	—	—	2.00
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.9%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	11.5%	11.5%	13.4%	0.85×	8.72
0-1	10.0%	11.5%	10.0%	1.15×	8.73
1-2	9.2%	7.4%	7.2%	1.03×	13.50
0-2	7.6%	7.4%	3.6%	2.06×	13.50
1-0	7.8%	7.4%	12.8%	0.58×	13.50
2-1	7.2%	7.4%	9.8%	0.75×	13.51
0-0	6.0%	7.4%	7.0%	1.05×	13.51
2-2	5.6%	7.4%	5.2%	1.44×	13.51
1-3	4.8%	1.7%	2.3%	0.73×	58.29
0-3	4.0%	1.7%	3.1%	0.55×	58.30
0-4	1.6%	1.7%	1.1%	1.57×	58.31
1-4	1.9%	1.7%	0.8%	2.20×	58.31
2-0	4.6%	1.7%	7.3%	0.23×	58.29
2-3	2.9%	1.7%	1.9%	0.91×	58.30
2-4	1.1%	1.7%	0.5%	3.66×	58.31
3-0	1.8%	1.7%	3.6%	0.48×	58.31
3-1	2.9%	1.7%	3.0%	0.58×	58.30
3-2	2.3%	1.7%	2.5%	0.69×	58.31
3-3	1.2%	1.7%	0.8%	2.20×	58.31
3-4	0.5%	1.7%	0.6%	2.74×	58.32
4-0	0.6%	1.7%	1.3%	1.37×	58.32
4-1	0.9%	1.7%	0.5%	3.66×	58.31
4-2	0.7%	1.7%	1.6%	1.10×	58.32
4-3	0.4%	1.7%	0.3%	5.49×	58.32
4-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.3%	5.49×	58.32
Any other score	2.9%	1.7%	3.3%	0.52×	58.30

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Machida Zelvia (2nd half DNB)	60.7%	62.4%	—	—	1.60
Cerezo Osaka (2nd half DNB)	39.3%	37.6%	—	—	2.66

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Machida Zelvia leading at HT (DNB)	55.9%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Cerezo Osaka leading at HT (DNB)	44.1%	42.9%	—	—	2.33

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cerezo Osaka or Machida Zelvia (12)	75.6%	75.6%	73.9%	1.02×	1.32
Machida Zelvia or draw (X2)	70.2%	72.1%	57.0%	1.26×	1.39
Cerezo Osaka or draw (1X)	54.2%	52.7%	68.9%	0.76×	1.90

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Machida Zelvia or draw at HT	74.8%	75.2%	—	—	1.33
Cerezo Osaka or draw at HT	68.1%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
Cerezo Osaka or Machida Zelvia at HT	57.1%	57.1%	—	—	1.75

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Machida Zelvia or draw (1UP)	70.2%	79.5%	—	—	1.26
Cerezo Osaka or draw (1UP)	54.2%	58.8%	—	—	1.70

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Machida Zelvia or draw in 2nd half	74.2%	74.3%	—	—	1.35
Cerezo Osaka or Machida Zelvia in 2nd half	65.6%	65.7%	—	—	1.52
Cerezo Osaka or draw in 2nd half	60.2%	63.8%	—	—	1.57

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	62.8%	61.4%	—	—	1.63
Neither half drawn	37.2%	38.6%	—	—	2.59

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Machida Zelvia (DNB)	60.6%	62.7%	42.0%	1.49×	1.60
Cerezo Osaka (DNB)	39.4%	37.3%	58.0%	0.64×	2.68

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Machida Zelvia to score first	53.0%	53.4%	—	—	1.87
Cerezo Osaka to score first	41.0%	41.6%	—	—	2.40
No goal scored	6.0%	7.4%	—	—	13.50

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	55.2%	55.0%	50.5%	1.09×	1.82
Not both teams to score	44.8%	45.0%	49.5%	0.91×	2.22

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	43.7%	41.6%	37.2%	1.12×	2.40
Not both score & under 2.5	36.0%	38.4%	40.2%	0.96×	2.60
Both score & under 2.5	11.5%	12.4%	13.4%	0.92×	8.10
Not both score & over 2.5	8.7%	8.3%	9.5%	0.87×	12.06

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	84.2%	82.6%	86.3%	0.96×	1.21
Both teams to score 2+	15.8%	17.4%	13.8%	1.26×	5.75

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	69.8%	67.4%	—	—	1.48
Both teams to score in 2nd half	30.2%	32.6%	—	—	3.07

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	56.7%	60.0%	—	—	1.67
Both score 2nd half only	24.5%	21.1%	—	—	4.73
Both score 1st half only	13.1%	10.7%	—	—	9.35
Both score in both halves	5.7%	6.8%	—	—	14.78

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	81.2%	83.2%	—	—	1.20
Both teams to score by HT	18.8%	16.8%	—	—	5.95

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	54.7%	52.8%	—	—	1.89
A half without a goal	45.3%	47.2%	—	—	2.12

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	46.0%	47.2%	47.2%	1.00×	2.12
4-6 goals	27.9%	26.6%	20.9%	1.27×	3.76
0-1 goals	23.8%	22.9%	29.5%	0.78×	4.37
7+ goals	2.3%	1.8%	2.7%	0.69×	54.27

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Machida Zelvia to score exactly 1	32.7%	33.8%	36.6%	0.93×	2.96
Machida Zelvia to score exactly 2	25.6%	27.4%	19.7%	1.39×	3.66
Machida Zelvia to score exactly 0	21.0%	22.3%	31.9%	0.70×	4.49
Machida Zelvia to score 3+	20.7%	22.3%	12.2%	1.83×	4.49

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cerezo Osaka to score exactly 1	36.1%	35.6%	36.3%	0.98×	2.81
Cerezo Osaka to score exactly 0	29.8%	26.6%	24.7%	1.08×	3.77
Cerezo Osaka to score exactly 2	21.8%	23.3%	24.5%	0.95×	4.29
Cerezo Osaka to score 3+	12.3%	14.3%	14.8%	0.96×	6.99

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	42.9%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Machida Zelvia leading at HT	31.9%	33.3%	—	—	3.00
Cerezo Osaka leading at HT	25.2%	24.8%	—	—	4.03

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Machida Zelvia -1: 1	54.2%	52.1%	—	—	1.92
Machida Zelvia -1: 2	23.1%	23.5%	—	—	4.26
Machida Zelvia -1: X	22.7%	23.5%	—	—	4.26

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Machida Zelvia (0:1)	70.2%	71.0%	57.0%	1.24×	1.41
Draw (0:1)	17.6%	17.8%	25.0%	0.71×	5.61
Cerezo Osaka (0:1)	12.2%	13.7%	18.1%	0.76×	7.29

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Machida Zelvia (0:2)	87.8%	87.1%	81.9%	1.06×	1.15
Draw (0:2)	8.2%	7.7%	12.0%	0.64×	13.03
Cerezo Osaka (0:2)	3.9%	3.8%	6.3%	0.60×	26.63

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Machida Zelvia (0:3)	96.1%	96.6%	93.8%	1.03×	1.04
Draw (0:3)	2.9%	2.4%	4.2%	0.56×	42.06
Cerezo Osaka (0:3)	1.0%	2.4%	2.2%	1.08×	42.15

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Machida Zelvia (0:4)	99.0%	98.1%	97.8%	1.00×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	0.8%	1.2%	1.4%	0.87×	82.01
Cerezo Osaka (0:4)	0.2%	1.2%	0.9%	1.30×	82.08

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cerezo Osaka (1:0)	54.2%	54.1%	68.9%	0.78×	1.85
Machida Zelvia (1:0)	23.1%	21.7%	11.9%	1.83×	4.61
Draw (1:0)	22.7%	21.7%	19.4%	1.12×	4.61

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cerezo Osaka (2:0)	76.9%	80.5%	88.1%	0.91×	1.24
Draw (2:0)	13.7%	10.3%	6.1%	1.69×	9.71
Machida Zelvia (2:0)	9.4%	6.4%	5.9%	1.08×	15.66

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	48.8%	48.8%	—	—	2.05
1st half highest scoring	27.0%	26.2%	—	—	3.81
Halves equal	24.2%	24.4%	—	—	4.10

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cerezo Osaka to concede	79.0%	76.1%	68.1%	1.12×	1.31
Cerezo Osaka clean sheet	21.0%	23.9%	31.9%	0.75×	4.19

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cerezo Osaka clean sheet in 1st half	53.5%	55.5%	—	—	1.80
Cerezo Osaka to concede in 1st half	46.5%	44.5%	—	—	2.25

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cerezo Osaka to concede in 2nd half	60.8%	59.7%	—	—	1.68
Cerezo Osaka clean sheet in 2nd half	39.2%	40.3%	—	—	2.48

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cerezo Osaka under 6.5 corners	81.4%	81.0%	—	—	1.24
Cerezo Osaka over 2.5 corners	77.5%	76.5%	—	—	1.31
Cerezo Osaka under 5.5 corners	70.3%	71.8%	—	—	1.39
Cerezo Osaka over 3.5 corners	61.0%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
Cerezo Osaka under 4.5 corners	55.8%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Cerezo Osaka over 4.5 corners	44.2%	42.5%	—	—	2.35
Cerezo Osaka under 3.5 corners	39.0%	37.8%	—	—	2.65
Cerezo Osaka over 5.5 corners	29.7%	28.2%	—	—	3.55
Cerezo Osaka under 2.5 corners	22.5%	23.5%	—	—	4.26
Cerezo Osaka over 6.5 corners	18.6%	19.0%	—	—	5.25

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cerezo Osaka under 3.5 goals	96.5%	96.4%	94.8%	1.02×	1.04
Cerezo Osaka under 2.5 goals	87.7%	87.3%	85.2%	1.02×	1.15
Cerezo Osaka over 0.5 goals	70.2%	74.2%	75.3%	0.99×	1.35
Cerezo Osaka under 1.5 goals	65.9%	67.9%	60.8%	1.12×	1.47
Cerezo Osaka over 1.5 goals	34.1%	32.1%	39.2%	0.82×	3.12
Cerezo Osaka under 0.5 goals	29.8%	25.8%	24.7%	1.04×	3.88
Cerezo Osaka over 2.5 goals	12.3%	12.7%	14.8%	0.86×	7.85
Cerezo Osaka over 3.5 goals	3.5%	3.6%	5.2%	0.71×	27.50

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cerezo Osaka under 1.5 in 1st half	90.3%	94.6%	—	—	1.06
Cerezo Osaka under 0.5 in 1st half	59.4%	56.8%	—	—	1.76
Cerezo Osaka over 0.5 in 1st half	40.6%	43.2%	—	—	2.32
Cerezo Osaka over 1.5 in 1st half	9.7%	5.4%	—	—	18.52

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cerezo Osaka scores equally in both	41.5%	42.0%	—	—	2.38
Cerezo Osaka scores more in 2nd half	34.6%	33.0%	—	—	3.03
Cerezo Osaka scores more in 1st half	23.9%	21.3%	—	—	4.70

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Machida Zelvia (home no bet)	65.2%	64.1%	54.4%	1.18×	1.56
Draw (home no bet)	34.8%	35.9%	45.6%	0.79×	2.79

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cerezo Osaka even goals	54.4%	50.7%	52.7%	0.96×	1.97
Cerezo Osaka odd goals	45.6%	49.3%	47.3%	1.04×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	31.7%	33.3%	—	—	3.00
HT 0-1	19.9%	18.6%	—	—	5.37
HT 1-0	16.6%	18.6%	—	—	5.39
HT 1-1	10.3%	11.0%	—	—	9.09
HT 0-2	6.2%	6.9%	—	—	14.50
HT 2-0	4.3%	2.4%	—	—	42.00
Any other HT score	4.1%	2.4%	—	—	42.01
HT 1-2	3.2%	2.4%	—	—	42.07
HT 2-1	2.7%	2.4%	—	—	42.10
HT 2-2	0.8%	2.4%	—	—	42.22

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Machida Zelvia at HT / Machida Zelvia at FT	25.5%	27.1%	—	—	3.69
Draw at HT / Machida Zelvia at FT	17.3%	16.7%	—	—	5.98
Cerezo Osaka at HT / Cerezo Osaka at FT	16.8%	16.7%	—	—	5.98
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	14.5%	12.7%	—	—	7.90
Draw at HT / Cerezo Osaka at FT	11.2%	12.6%	—	—	7.92
Cerezo Osaka at HT / Draw at FT	5.3%	6.0%	—	—	16.68
Machida Zelvia at HT / Draw at FT	4.7%	3.5%	—	—	28.60
Cerezo Osaka at HT / Machida Zelvia at FT	3.1%	3.5%	—	—	28.65
Machida Zelvia at HT / Cerezo Osaka at FT	1.8%	3.5%	—	—	28.70

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Machida Zelvia to score last	53.0%	52.2%	—	—	1.92
Cerezo Osaka to score last	41.1%	40.0%	—	—	2.50
No goal scored	6.0%	7.4%	—	—	13.50

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	94.0%	92.7%	—	—	1.08
Machida Zelvia to lead by 1 at any time	61.3%	61.3%	—	—	1.63
Cerezo Osaka to lead by 1 at any time	47.6%	44.6%	—	—	2.24
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	47.2%	44.6%	—	—	2.25
Machida Zelvia to lead by 2 at any time	29.6%	25.6%	—	—	3.91
Cerezo Osaka to lead by 2 at any time	17.8%	15.0%	—	—	6.69
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	17.0%	14.9%	—	—	6.69
Machida Zelvia to lead by 3 at any time	11.6%	10.4%	—	—	9.58
Cerezo Osaka to lead by 3 at any time	5.4%	6.7%	—	—	15.00

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Machida Zelvia most corners	46.7%	47.0%	—	—	2.13
Cerezo Osaka most corners	41.4%	43.5%	—	—	2.30
Corners level	11.9%	10.4%	—	—	9.58

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	87.7%	87.4%	87.5%	1.00×	1.14
1-4 goals	79.2%	78.7%	81.7%	0.96×	1.27
2-6 goals	73.8%	72.4%	68.0%	1.06×	1.38
2-5 goals	69.9%	68.8%	65.0%	1.06×	1.45
1-3 goals	63.8%	63.3%	69.7%	0.91×	1.58
2-4 goals	61.4%	63.3%	59.2%	1.07×	1.58
3-6 goals	50.1%	53.2%	44.1%	1.21×	1.88
3-5 goals	46.1%	48.5%	41.1%	1.18×	2.06
2-3 goals	46.0%	48.5%	47.2%	1.03×	2.06
1-2 goals	41.6%	43.6%	46.6%	0.94×	2.30
3-4 goals	37.6%	39.2%	35.3%	1.11×	2.55
4-6 goals	27.9%	30.2%	20.9%	1.44×	3.31
4-5 goals	23.9%	24.5%	18.0%	1.36×	4.08
5-6 goals	12.5%	14.8%	8.9%	1.66×	6.75
7+ goals	2.3%	2.6%	2.7%	0.96×	39.12

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Machida Zelvia never behind	46.5%	56.5%	—	—	1.77
Cerezo Osaka never behind	32.7%	36.2%	—	—	2.76

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even number of goals	49.7%	50.9%	46.7%	1.09×	1.96
Odd number of goals	50.3%	49.1%	53.3%	0.92×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	55.0%	51.7%	—	—	1.94
Odd goals in 1st half	45.0%	48.3%	—	—	2.07

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	51.7%	51.9%	—	—	1.93
Odd goals in 2nd half	48.3%	48.1%	—	—	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	94.0%	92.3%	93.0%	0.99×	1.08
Under 5.5 goals	93.7%	92.3%	94.4%	0.98×	1.08
Under 4.5 goals	85.2%	87.6%	88.6%	0.99×	1.14
Over 1.5 goals	76.2%	77.3%	70.5%	1.10×	1.29
Under 3.5 goals	69.8%	66.3%	76.6%	0.87×	1.51
Over 2.5 goals	52.4%	52.5%	46.6%	1.13×	1.90
Under 2.5 goals	47.6%	47.5%	53.4%	0.89×	2.11
Over 3.5 goals	30.2%	33.7%	23.4%	1.44×	2.97
Under 1.5 goals	23.8%	22.7%	29.5%	0.77×	4.41
Over 4.5 goals	14.8%	12.4%	11.4%	1.09×	8.06
Over 5.5 goals	6.3%	7.7%	5.6%	1.37×	12.94
Under 0.5 goals	6.0%	7.7%	7.0%	1.10×	12.94

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	97.6%	97.2%	97.3%	1.00×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	93.1%	92.4%	94.0%	0.98×	1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	82.5%	81.1%	87.0%	0.93×	1.23
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	68.8%	67.5%	61.2%	1.10×	1.48
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	61.1%	61.9%	69.5%	0.89×	1.62
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	38.9%	38.1%	30.5%	1.25×	2.62
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	31.2%	32.5%	38.8%	0.84×	3.07
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	17.5%	18.9%	13.0%	1.46×	5.29
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	6.9%	7.6%	6.0%	1.27×	13.16
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	2.4%	2.8%	2.7%	1.03×	35.59

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	89.1%	89.2%	—	—	1.12
Under 1.5 in 1st half	68.3%	68.5%	—	—	1.46
Over 0.5 in 1st half	68.3%	68.5%	—	—	1.46
Under 0.5 in 1st half	31.7%	31.5%	—	—	3.17
Over 1.5 in 1st half	31.7%	31.5%	—	—	3.17
Over 2.5 in 1st half	10.9%	10.8%	—	—	9.29

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	80.5%	83.1%	—	—	1.20
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	77.6%	79.4%	—	—	1.26
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	51.7%	53.1%	—	—	1.88
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	48.3%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	22.4%	20.6%	—	—	4.85
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	19.5%	16.9%	—	—	5.93

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cerezo Osaka not to score in both halves	79.8%	78.5%	—	—	1.27
Machida Zelvia not to score in both halves	71.7%	73.9%	—	—	1.35
Machida Zelvia to score in both halves	28.3%	26.1%	—	—	3.83
Cerezo Osaka to score in both halves	20.2%	21.5%	—	—	4.65

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	55.2%	58.6%	50.5%	1.16×	1.71
Only Machida Zelvia scores	23.8%	22.3%	17.8%	1.25×	4.49
Only Cerezo Osaka scores	15.0%	11.1%	25.0%	0.44×	9.05
Neither team scores	6.0%	7.1%	7.0%	1.01×	14.05

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	23.8%	22.6%	24.1%	0.94×	4.43
Exactly 3 goals	22.2%	22.6%	23.3%	0.97×	4.43
Exactly 1 goals	17.8%	17.5%	22.7%	0.77×	5.73
Exactly 4 goals	15.4%	17.5%	12.2%	1.43×	5.73
Exactly 5 goals	8.5%	7.6%	5.9%	1.28×	13.13
Exactly 0 goals	6.0%	7.6%	7.0%	1.08×	13.14
6 or more goals	6.3%	7.6%	5.6%	1.35×	13.14

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 1st half	36.5%	37.4%	—	—	2.67
No goals in 1st half	31.7%	35.8%	—	—	2.79
2 goals in 1st half	20.8%	21.5%	—	—	4.65
3+ goals in 1st half	10.9%	10.7%	—	—	9.37

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	48.3%	45.2%	—	—	2.21
1 goal in 2nd half	32.1%	33.8%	—	—	2.96
No goals in 2nd half	19.5%	16.5%	—	—	6.05

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cerezo Osaka not to win both halves	93.5%	94.1%	—	—	1.06
Machida Zelvia not to win both halves	87.3%	87.9%	—	—	1.14
Machida Zelvia to win both halves	12.7%	12.1%	—	—	8.24
Cerezo Osaka to win both halves	6.5%	5.9%	—	—	17.05

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Machida Zelvia to win either half	59.1%	59.1%	—	—	1.69
Cerezo Osaka to win neither half	55.5%	59.0%	—	—	1.70
Cerezo Osaka to win either half	44.5%	41.0%	—	—	2.44
Machida Zelvia to win neither half	40.9%	40.9%	—	—	2.45

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cerezo Osaka not to win to nil	85.0%	88.1%	75.0%	1.17×	1.14
Machida Zelvia not to win to nil	76.2%	78.1%	82.2%	0.95×	1.28
Machida Zelvia to win to nil	23.8%	21.9%	17.8%	1.23×	4.57
Cerezo Osaka to win to nil	15.0%	11.9%	25.0%	0.48×	8.40

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	24.4%	24.1%	26.1%	0.92×	4.15
Machida Zelvia by 1	22.7%	24.1%	19.4%	1.24×	4.15
Cerezo Osaka by 1	17.6%	17.0%	25.0%	0.68×	5.87
Machida Zelvia by 2	13.7%	11.8%	6.1%	1.93×	8.51
Machida Zelvia by 3+	9.4%	7.2%	5.9%	1.21×	13.90
Cerezo Osaka by 2	8.2%	7.2%	12.0%	0.60×	13.90
Cerezo Osaka by 3+	3.9%	2.7%	6.3%	0.44×	36.78