Cesena v Empoli — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Tuesday 27 October 2026 · ITA-Serie B · 2627

ITA-Serie B results-only Prediction generated 18 Sep 2026, 10:37 UTC

Cesena

18:00 UTC

Empoli

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 26 Oct, 10:59 · 31h before kick-off

Cesena win

43.2%

model 41.5%

Draw

29.4%

model 30.4%

Empoli win

27.4%

model 28.1%

432927

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (624 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 14.4%
1-0 10.7%
0-0 10.6%
2-1 8.6%
2-0 8.1%

Goals

Over 2.5	43.0%	Under 2.5	57.0%
BTTS yes	49.7%	BTTS no	50.3%
Cesena 1+	73.8%	Cesena 2+	38.7%
Empoli 1+	65.3%	Empoli 2+	28.6%

Expected goals 1.34 – 1.06. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

51/100

Data quality

75/100

Model agreement

98%

★ Best pick

Not both teams to score

GG/NG · usually 46%

53.3% fair odds 1.88

moderate signal · 1528 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Empoli (0:2)

Handicap 0:2 · usually 80%

83.5% fair odds 1.20

moderate signal · 504 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Nothing in the data singles out Cesena.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Cesena have an estimated 43.2% win probability, against 29.4% for the draw and 27.4% for Empoli. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.34 for Cesena and 1.06 for Empoli.

Why Cesena

Nothing in the data singles out Cesena.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 29.4%. A combined 2.40 expected goals is a low-scoring profile, and low totals mean more level finishes. Draws run at 32% in this competition.

Why Empoli can win

Nothing in the data singles out Empoli.

Key players

Empoli's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Sebastiano Esposito (0.29), Lorenzo Colombo (0.25), Jacopo Fazzini (0.19).

Availability

No lineup on record for Cesena, so availability is unknown. 1 of Empoli's top three contributors did not start their last match.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Cesena: 45% possession, 12.0 shots a match, 17.2 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Empoli: 40% possession, 10.6 shots a match, 14.2 faced, 0.23 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-26 10:06 · team_stats 2026-10-26 06:08 · availability 2026-10-26 14:59 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Cesena are the model's most likely outcome at 43.2%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 14.4%. Confidence 51/100, data quality 75/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Empoli are conceding more than the chances against them merit — 3.5 goals above expected, which tends to correct.

LDDLDLLWWL last 10 scored 10 from 11.3 xG conceded 14 from 10.5 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	423028	1.34–1.06	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	403129	1.29–1.07	1-1 15%	42%	49%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cesena to win	40.0%	42.9%	42.7%	1.00×	2.33
Draw	30.8%	30.4%	31.9%	0.95×	3.29
Empoli to win	29.2%	27.9%	25.5%	1.09×	3.58

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cesena & not both score	23.4%	21.8%	23.9%	0.91×	4.59
Draw & both teams score	19.8%	18.0%	22.9%	0.78×	5.56
Cesena & both teams score	16.7%	18.0%	18.9%	0.95×	5.57
Empoli & not both score	16.5%	18.0%	13.3%	1.35×	5.57
Empoli & both teams score	12.7%	13.3%	12.3%	1.08×	7.54
Draw & not both score	11.0%	13.3%	9.1%	1.46×	7.54

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cesena & under 3.5	30.3%	30.7%	31.9%	0.96×	3.25
Cesena & over 1.5	29.4%	26.1%	31.8%	0.82×	3.84
Draw & under 2.5	25.5%	26.0%	23.7%	1.10×	3.84
Draw & under 3.5	25.5%	26.0%	23.7%	1.10×	3.84
Empoli & under 3.5	22.8%	21.6%	19.9%	1.08×	4.63
Cesena & over 2.5	21.5%	21.6%	24.4%	0.89×	4.63
Empoli & over 1.5	20.6%	21.6%	18.8%	1.15×	4.63
Draw & over 1.5	19.8%	18.0%	22.9%	0.79×	5.55
Cesena & under 2.5	18.5%	18.0%	18.4%	0.98×	5.55
Empoli & over 2.5	15.2%	18.0%	15.1%	1.19×	5.56
Empoli & under 2.5	14.0%	12.8%	10.6%	1.21×	7.79
Cesena & under 1.5	10.7%	12.8%	11.1%	1.16×	7.79
Draw & under 1.5	11.0%	12.8%	9.1%	1.41×	7.79
Cesena & over 3.5	9.7%	7.9%	11.0%	0.72×	12.62
Empoli & under 1.5	8.6%	7.9%	6.8%	1.16×	12.63
Empoli & over 3.5	6.4%	7.9%	5.7%	1.38×	12.63
Draw & over 2.5	5.2%	7.9%	8.3%	0.95×	12.63
Draw & over 3.5	5.2%	7.9%	8.3%	0.95×	12.63

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cesena (1UP)	55.1%	57.8%	—	—	1.73
Empoli (1UP)	45.5%	43.7%	—	—	2.29

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cesena (2UP)	40.0%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Empoli (2UP)	29.2%	25.3%	—	—	3.95

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half drawn	39.7%	36.5%	—	—	2.74
Cesena to win 2nd half	33.0%	34.0%	—	—	2.94
Empoli to win 2nd half	27.3%	26.1%	—	—	3.84

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Empoli under 1.5 in 2nd half	86.4%	87.1%	—	—	1.15
Empoli under 0.5 in 2nd half	52.7%	52.5%	—	—	1.91
Empoli over 0.5 in 2nd half	47.3%	47.5%	—	—	2.11
Empoli over 1.5 in 2nd half	13.6%	12.9%	—	—	7.73

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cesena under 1.5 in 2nd half	83.2%	82.5%	—	—	1.21
Cesena over 0.5 in 2nd half	52.1%	54.9%	—	—	1.82
Cesena under 0.5 in 2nd half	47.9%	45.1%	—	—	2.22
Cesena over 1.5 in 2nd half	16.8%	17.5%	—	—	5.70

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Empoli (+2.5)	93.4%	92.1%	93.3%	0.99×	1.09
Empoli (+1.5)	81.2%	82.6%	80.3%	1.03×	1.21
Cesena (+0.5)	70.8%	73.6%	74.5%	0.99×	1.36
Empoli (+0.5)	60.0%	57.1%	57.3%	1.00×	1.75
Cesena (-0.5)	40.0%	42.9%	42.7%	1.00×	2.33
Empoli (-0.5)	29.2%	26.4%	25.5%	1.03×	3.80
Cesena (-1.5)	18.8%	17.4%	19.7%	0.89×	5.74
Cesena (-2.5)	6.6%	7.9%	6.7%	1.17×	12.71

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Empoli to concede	72.5%	76.7%	77.7%	0.99×	1.30
Empoli clean sheet	27.5%	23.3%	22.3%	1.05×	4.29

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Empoli clean sheet in 1st half	57.4%	56.4%	—	—	1.77
Empoli to concede in 1st half	42.6%	43.6%	—	—	2.30

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Empoli to concede in 2nd half	52.1%	54.4%	—	—	1.84
Empoli clean sheet in 2nd half	47.9%	45.6%	—	—	2.19

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Empoli under 6.5 corners	82.2%	81.4%	—	—	1.23
Empoli over 2.5 corners	74.9%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
Empoli under 5.5 corners	71.8%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
Empoli over 3.5 corners	58.2%	57.2%	—	—	1.75
Empoli under 4.5 corners	58.1%	57.2%	—	—	1.75
Empoli over 4.5 corners	41.9%	42.8%	—	—	2.34
Empoli under 3.5 corners	41.8%	42.8%	—	—	2.34
Empoli over 5.5 corners	28.2%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
Empoli under 2.5 corners	25.1%	28.4%	—	—	3.53
Empoli over 6.5 corners	17.8%	18.6%	—	—	5.38

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Empoli under 3.5 goals	97.6%	97.5%	98.1%	0.99×	1.03
Empoli under 2.5 goals	90.7%	92.3%	90.8%	1.02×	1.08
Empoli under 1.5 goals	71.0%	71.8%	69.4%	1.04×	1.39
Empoli over 0.5 goals	65.7%	68.0%	67.1%	1.01×	1.47
Empoli under 0.5 goals	34.3%	32.0%	32.9%	0.97×	3.12
Empoli over 1.5 goals	29.0%	28.2%	30.6%	0.92×	3.55
Empoli over 2.5 goals	9.3%	7.7%	9.2%	0.83×	13.05
Empoli over 3.5 goals	2.4%	2.5%	1.9%	1.34×	39.85

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Empoli under 1.5 in 1st half	93.1%	93.9%	—	—	1.06
Empoli under 0.5 in 1st half	65.2%	70.1%	—	—	1.43
Empoli over 0.5 in 1st half	34.8%	29.9%	—	—	3.34
Empoli over 1.5 in 1st half	6.9%	6.1%	—	—	16.52

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Empoli scores equally in both	44.4%	43.7%	—	—	2.29
Empoli scores more in 2nd half	34.8%	33.4%	—	—	3.00
Empoli scores more in 1st half	20.8%	21.8%	—	—	4.60

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cesena (away no bet)	56.5%	57.3%	57.3%	1.00×	1.74
Draw (away no bet)	43.5%	42.7%	42.7%	1.00×	2.34

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Empoli even goals	55.9%	56.9%	55.4%	1.03×	1.76
Empoli odd goals	44.1%	43.1%	44.6%	0.97×	2.32

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	89.7%	88.0%	—	—	1.14
Both halves over 1.5 goals	10.3%	12.0%	—	—	8.35

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	56.3%	60.2%	—	—	1.66
Both halves under 1.5 goals	43.7%	39.8%	—	—	2.51

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	48.2%	46.2%	—	—	2.17
Cesena to score 2+ in a row	30.2%	28.8%	—	—	3.47
Empoli to score 2+ in a row	22.3%	19.5%	—	—	5.12
Either team to score 3+ in a row	15.0%	12.2%	—	—	8.18
Cesena to score 3+ in a row	9.5%	5.6%	—	—	18.01
Empoli to score 3+ in a row	5.7%	5.5%	—	—	18.31

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cesena corners (+3.5)	89.4%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Cesena corners (+2.5)	83.6%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Cesena corners (+1.5)	76.0%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
Empoli corners (+3.5)	74.7%	70.8%	—	—	1.41
Empoli corners (+2.5)	65.5%	65.9%	—	—	1.52
Empoli corners (+1.5)	55.1%	57.2%	—	—	1.75
Cesena corners (-1.5)	44.9%	42.8%	—	—	2.33
Cesena corners (-2.5)	34.5%	34.1%	—	—	2.93
Cesena corners (-3.5)	25.3%	29.2%	—	—	3.42
Empoli corners (-1.5)	24.0%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
Empoli corners (-2.5)	16.4%	20.2%	—	—	4.95
Empoli corners (-3.5)	10.6%	15.5%	—	—	6.45

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	40.5%	38.3%	—	—	2.61
9-11 corners	29.9%	31.2%	—	—	3.21
12+ corners	29.6%	31.2%	—	—	3.21

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	78.0%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Under 11.5 corners	70.4%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Over 7.5 corners	70.0%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Under 10.5 corners	61.3%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Over 8.5 corners	59.5%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Under 9.5 corners	51.2%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Over 9.5 corners	48.8%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Under 8.5 corners	40.5%	42.1%	—	—	2.37
Over 10.5 corners	38.7%	36.8%	—	—	2.72
Under 7.5 corners	30.0%	27.5%	—	—	3.64
Over 11.5 corners	29.6%	27.5%	—	—	3.64
Over 12.5 corners	22.0%	23.4%	—	—	4.27

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.8%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	14.6%	11.5%	14.7%	0.78×	8.71
0-0	11.0%	11.5%	9.1%	1.26×	8.72
1-0	10.7%	11.5%	11.1%	1.04×	8.72
0-1	8.6%	7.4%	6.8%	1.08×	13.51
2-1	8.4%	7.4%	9.7%	0.76×	13.51
1-2	7.0%	7.4%	7.3%	1.01×	13.51
2-0	7.9%	7.4%	7.5%	0.99×	13.51
0-2	5.4%	7.4%	3.9%	1.92×	13.51
0-3	1.9%	1.7%	2.2%	0.77×	58.31
0-4	0.5%	1.7%	0.7%	2.30×	58.32
1-3	2.5%	1.7%	2.6%	0.66×	58.31
1-4	0.7%	1.7%	0.4%	4.59×	58.32
2-2	4.5%	1.7%	7.3%	0.23×	58.29
2-3	1.6%	1.7%	1.5%	1.15×	58.31
2-4	0.4%	1.7%	0.1%	13.77×	58.32
3-0	3.4%	1.7%	4.0%	0.43×	58.30
3-1	3.6%	1.7%	4.6%	0.37×	58.30
3-2	1.9%	1.7%	2.5%	0.69×	58.31
3-3	0.7%	1.7%	1.1%	1.53×	58.32
3-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.4%	4.59×	58.32
4-0	1.1%	1.7%	1.1%	1.53×	58.31
4-1	1.2%	1.7%	0.7%	2.30×	58.31
4-2	0.6%	1.7%	1.0%	1.72×	58.32
4-3	0.2%	1.7%	0.2%	6.88×	58.32
4-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.1%	13.77×	58.32
Any other score	1.5%	1.7%	2.1%	0.81×	58.31

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cesena (2nd half DNB)	54.7%	54.9%	—	—	1.82
Empoli (2nd half DNB)	45.3%	45.1%	—	—	2.22

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cesena leading at HT (DNB)	58.2%	55.6%	—	—	1.80
Empoli leading at HT (DNB)	41.8%	44.4%	—	—	2.25

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cesena or draw (1X)	70.8%	72.1%	74.5%	0.97×	1.39
Cesena or Empoli (12)	69.2%	69.6%	68.1%	1.02×	1.44
Empoli or draw (X2)	60.0%	57.1%	57.3%	1.00×	1.75

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cesena or draw at HT	78.0%	79.6%	—	—	1.26
Empoli or draw at HT	69.4%	67.2%	—	—	1.49
Cesena or Empoli at HT	52.6%	48.5%	—	—	2.06

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cesena or draw (1UP)	70.8%	79.5%	—	—	1.26
Empoli or draw (1UP)	60.0%	63.2%	—	—	1.58

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cesena or draw in 2nd half	72.7%	73.9%	—	—	1.35
Empoli or draw in 2nd half	67.0%	66.0%	—	—	1.52
Cesena or Empoli in 2nd half	60.3%	63.5%	—	—	1.58

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	66.6%	68.1%	—	—	1.47
Neither half drawn	33.4%	31.9%	—	—	3.14

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cesena (DNB)	57.8%	58.1%	62.6%	0.93×	1.72
Empoli (DNB)	42.2%	41.9%	37.4%	1.12×	2.39

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cesena to score first	48.7%	45.9%	—	—	2.18
Empoli to score first	40.3%	41.6%	—	—	2.41
No goal scored	11.0%	9.5%	—	—	10.56

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score	50.9%	51.3%	46.1%	1.11×	1.95
Both teams to score	49.1%	48.7%	53.9%	0.90×	2.05

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both score & under 2.5	43.5%	41.6%	37.9%	1.10×	2.41
Both score & over 2.5	34.6%	34.6%	39.4%	0.88×	2.89
Both score & under 2.5	14.6%	12.4%	14.7%	0.84×	8.08
Not both score & over 2.5	7.4%	8.3%	8.3%	0.99×	12.07

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	89.3%	85.6%	86.1%	1.00×	1.17
Both teams to score 2+	10.7%	14.4%	13.9%	1.03×	6.96

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	74.8%	73.8%	—	—	1.36
Both teams to score in 2nd half	25.2%	26.2%	—	—	3.81

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	63.4%	66.0%	—	—	1.52
Both score 2nd half only	21.5%	21.2%	—	—	4.72
Both score 1st half only	11.4%	10.7%	—	—	9.32
Both score in both halves	3.7%	4.9%	—	—	20.41

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	84.9%	83.5%	—	—	1.20
Both teams to score by HT	15.1%	16.5%	—	—	6.06

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half without a goal	52.5%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
A goal in each half	47.5%	47.4%	—	—	2.11

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	48.5%	47.2%	48.6%	0.97×	2.12
0-1 goals	30.2%	30.7%	26.8%	1.15×	3.26
4-6 goals	20.2%	22.9%	23.5%	0.97×	4.37
7+ goals	1.1%	1.8%	1.4%	1.34×	54.46

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Empoli to score exactly 1	36.7%	35.9%	36.6%	0.98×	2.78
Empoli to score exactly 0	34.3%	33.8%	32.9%	1.03×	2.96
Empoli to score exactly 2	19.6%	19.5%	21.5%	0.91×	5.12
Empoli to score 3+	9.3%	8.6%	9.2%	0.93×	11.68

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cesena to score exactly 1	35.5%	35.5%	35.9%	0.99×	2.81
Cesena to score exactly 0	27.5%	26.6%	22.3%	1.19×	3.77
Cesena to score exactly 2	22.9%	23.3%	25.9%	0.90×	4.29
Cesena to score 3+	14.1%	14.3%	16.2%	0.88×	6.99

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	47.4%	51.5%	—	—	1.94
Cesena leading at HT	30.6%	32.8%	—	—	3.05
Empoli leading at HT	22.0%	20.4%	—	—	4.90

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cesena -1: 2	60.0%	56.8%	—	—	1.76
Cesena -1: X	21.2%	23.5%	—	—	4.25
Cesena -1: 1	18.8%	17.5%	—	—	5.71

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Empoli (0:1)	60.0%	55.9%	57.3%	0.98×	1.79
Draw (0:1)	21.2%	24.2%	23.2%	1.05×	4.13
Cesena (0:1)	18.8%	17.8%	19.7%	0.91×	5.61

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Empoli (0:2)	81.2%	82.9%	80.3%	1.03×	1.21
Draw (0:2)	12.2%	11.0%	13.1%	0.84×	9.10
Cesena (0:2)	6.6%	7.7%	6.7%	1.14×	13.06

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Empoli (0:3)	93.4%	92.7%	93.3%	0.99×	1.08
Draw (0:3)	4.7%	2.4%	4.6%	0.52×	41.93
Cesena (0:3)	1.9%	2.4%	2.2%	1.06×	42.06

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Empoli (0:4)	98.1%	98.1%	97.8%	1.00×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	1.4%	1.2%	1.4%	0.89×	81.74
Cesena (0:4)	0.4%	1.2%	1.0%	1.23×	81.85

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cesena (1:0)	70.8%	72.4%	74.5%	0.97×	1.38
Draw (1:0)	17.3%	17.1%	15.7%	1.09×	5.85
Empoli (1:0)	11.9%	12.7%	10.0%	1.28×	7.87

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cesena (2:0)	88.1%	88.5%	90.0%	0.98×	1.13
Draw (2:0)	8.3%	6.4%	6.5%	0.99×	15.65
Empoli (2:0)	3.5%	2.3%	3.6%	0.63×	43.71

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	44.7%	45.7%	—	—	2.19
Halves equal	29.5%	26.3%	—	—	3.81
1st half highest scoring	25.8%	26.2%	—	—	3.81

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cesena to concede	65.7%	66.6%	67.1%	0.99×	1.50
Cesena clean sheet	34.3%	33.4%	32.9%	1.01×	3.00

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cesena clean sheet in 1st half	65.2%	70.4%	—	—	1.42
Cesena to concede in 1st half	34.8%	29.6%	—	—	3.38

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cesena clean sheet in 2nd half	52.7%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
Cesena to concede in 2nd half	47.3%	47.4%	—	—	2.11

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cesena over 2.5 corners	85.0%	86.2%	—	—	1.16
Cesena over 3.5 corners	72.4%	71.9%	—	—	1.39
Cesena under 6.5 corners	68.4%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
Cesena over 4.5 corners	58.1%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Cesena under 5.5 corners	56.0%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Cesena over 5.5 corners	44.0%	42.5%	—	—	2.35
Cesena under 4.5 corners	41.9%	42.5%	—	—	2.35
Cesena over 6.5 corners	31.6%	33.3%	—	—	3.01
Cesena under 3.5 corners	27.6%	28.1%	—	—	3.56
Cesena under 2.5 corners	15.0%	13.8%	—	—	7.25

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cesena under 3.5 goals	95.8%	96.4%	95.9%	1.00×	1.04
Cesena under 2.5 goals	85.9%	87.3%	83.8%	1.04×	1.15
Cesena over 0.5 goals	72.5%	74.2%	77.7%	0.96×	1.35
Cesena under 1.5 goals	63.0%	63.6%	58.0%	1.10×	1.57
Cesena over 1.5 goals	37.0%	36.4%	42.0%	0.87×	2.75
Cesena under 0.5 goals	27.5%	25.8%	22.3%	1.16×	3.88
Cesena over 2.5 goals	14.1%	12.7%	16.2%	0.79×	7.85
Cesena over 3.5 goals	4.2%	3.6%	4.1%	0.88×	27.50

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cesena under 1.5 in 1st half	89.3%	90.3%	—	—	1.11
Cesena under 0.5 in 1st half	57.4%	56.2%	—	—	1.78
Cesena over 0.5 in 1st half	42.6%	43.8%	—	—	2.29
Cesena over 1.5 in 1st half	10.7%	9.7%	—	—	10.27

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cesena scores equally in both	39.9%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Cesena scores more in 2nd half	35.6%	38.1%	—	—	2.63
Cesena scores more in 1st half	24.4%	21.1%	—	—	4.74

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw (home no bet)	51.3%	51.4%	55.5%	0.93×	1.95
Empoli (home no bet)	48.7%	48.6%	44.5%	1.09×	2.06

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cesena even goals	53.8%	50.8%	50.9%	1.00×	1.97
Cesena odd goals	46.2%	49.2%	49.1%	1.00×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	37.7%	38.6%	—	—	2.59
HT 1-0	20.5%	24.3%	—	—	4.12
HT 0-1	15.7%	18.5%	—	—	5.39
HT 1-1	9.1%	6.9%	—	—	14.52
HT 2-0	5.8%	6.9%	—	—	14.57
HT 0-2	3.4%	2.4%	—	—	42.18
Any other HT score	2.8%	2.4%	—	—	42.22
HT 2-1	2.5%	2.4%	—	—	42.24
HT 1-2	1.9%	2.4%	—	—	42.28
HT 2-2	0.5%	2.4%	—	—	42.37

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cesena at HT / Cesena at FT	23.2%	21.6%	—	—	4.63
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	20.4%	21.5%	—	—	4.65
Empoli at HT / Empoli at FT	15.2%	16.7%	—	—	5.97
Draw at HT / Cesena at FT	14.8%	12.7%	—	—	7.88
Draw at HT / Empoli at FT	12.1%	12.7%	—	—	7.90
Cesena at HT / Draw at FT	5.5%	6.0%	—	—	16.53
Empoli at HT / Draw at FT	4.8%	3.5%	—	—	28.84
Cesena at HT / Empoli at FT	1.9%	3.5%	—	—	28.95
Empoli at HT / Cesena at FT	1.9%	3.5%	—	—	28.95

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cesena to score last	48.8%	46.4%	—	—	2.16
Empoli to score last	40.3%	39.9%	—	—	2.51
No goal scored	11.0%	8.9%	—	—	11.28

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	89.0%	91.6%	—	—	1.09
Cesena to lead by 1 at any time	55.1%	54.8%	—	—	1.82
Empoli to lead by 1 at any time	45.5%	44.3%	—	—	2.26
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	40.2%	39.1%	—	—	2.56
Cesena to lead by 2 at any time	23.9%	19.6%	—	—	5.12
Empoli to lead by 2 at any time	16.4%	14.8%	—	—	6.75
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	12.7%	10.6%	—	—	9.43
Cesena to lead by 3 at any time	8.1%	6.7%	—	—	15.01
Empoli to lead by 3 at any time	4.6%	1.6%	—	—	60.83

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cesena most corners	55.9%	55.6%	—	—	1.80
Empoli most corners	33.5%	34.4%	—	—	2.90
Corners level	10.6%	10.4%	—	—	9.59

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	85.7%	87.4%	87.3%	1.00×	1.14
1-4 goals	79.9%	78.7%	82.1%	0.96×	1.27
2-6 goals	68.7%	68.8%	72.0%	0.96×	1.45
1-3 goals	67.7%	68.8%	66.3%	1.04×	1.45
2-5 goals	66.5%	68.8%	69.6%	0.99×	1.45
2-4 goals	60.7%	63.3%	64.4%	0.98×	1.58
2-3 goals	48.5%	48.4%	48.6%	1.00×	2.06
1-2 goals	47.0%	48.4%	43.5%	1.11×	2.06
3-6 goals	40.9%	43.6%	46.3%	0.94×	2.29
3-5 goals	38.7%	39.2%	44.0%	0.89×	2.55
3-4 goals	32.9%	35.2%	38.7%	0.91×	2.84
4-6 goals	20.2%	24.4%	23.5%	1.04×	4.09
4-5 goals	18.0%	18.8%	21.2%	0.89×	5.31
5-6 goals	8.0%	8.9%	7.7%	1.15×	11.26
7+ goals	1.1%	2.6%	1.4%	1.86×	39.22

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cesena never behind	43.5%	48.8%	—	—	2.05
Empoli never behind	33.9%	36.4%	—	—	2.75

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	46.5%	50.9%	46.7%	1.09×	1.97
Even number of goals	53.5%	49.1%	53.3%	0.92×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	57.5%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Odd goals in 1st half	42.5%	42.1%	—	—	2.37

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	54.2%	52.0%	—	—	1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half	45.8%	48.0%	—	—	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 5.5 goals	96.7%	95.4%	96.3%	0.99×	1.05
Under 4.5 goals	90.9%	92.3%	91.0%	1.01×	1.08
Over 0.5 goals	89.0%	87.6%	90.9%	0.96×	1.14
Under 3.5 goals	78.7%	77.3%	75.2%	1.03×	1.29
Over 1.5 goals	69.8%	66.3%	73.2%	0.91×	1.51
Under 2.5 goals	58.0%	58.6%	52.4%	1.12×	1.71
Over 2.5 goals	42.0%	41.4%	47.6%	0.87×	2.42
Under 1.5 goals	30.2%	33.7%	26.8%	1.26×	2.97
Over 3.5 goals	21.3%	22.7%	24.8%	0.92×	4.41
Under 0.5 goals	11.0%	12.4%	9.1%	1.36×	8.07
Over 4.5 goals	9.1%	7.7%	9.0%	0.86×	12.93
Over 5.5 goals	3.3%	4.6%	3.7%	1.23×	21.82

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	98.9%	97.2%	98.6%	0.99×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	96.5%	97.2%	96.1%	1.01×	1.03
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	89.6%	86.8%	89.3%	0.97×	1.15
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	73.2%	72.4%	67.9%	1.07×	1.38
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	58.2%	55.8%	64.0%	0.87×	1.79
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	41.8%	44.2%	36.0%	1.23×	2.26
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	26.8%	27.6%	32.1%	0.86×	3.62
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	10.4%	13.2%	10.7%	1.24×	7.55
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	3.5%	2.8%	3.9%	0.71×	35.58
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	1.1%	2.8%	1.4%	2.00×	35.65

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	92.3%	92.8%	—	—	1.08
Under 1.5 in 1st half	73.9%	71.4%	—	—	1.40
Over 0.5 in 1st half	62.3%	63.4%	—	—	1.58
Under 0.5 in 1st half	37.7%	36.6%	—	—	2.73
Over 1.5 in 1st half	26.1%	28.6%	—	—	3.50
Over 2.5 in 1st half	7.7%	7.2%	—	—	13.87

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	83.9%	83.0%	—	—	1.21
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	74.2%	77.9%	—	—	1.28
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	59.4%	55.2%	—	—	1.81
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	40.6%	44.8%	—	—	2.23
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	25.8%	22.1%	—	—	4.52
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	16.1%	17.0%	—	—	5.88

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Empoli not to score in both halves	83.5%	84.4%	—	—	1.19
Cesena not to score in both halves	77.8%	78.4%	—	—	1.28
Cesena to score in both halves	22.2%	21.6%	—	—	4.63
Empoli to score in both halves	16.5%	15.6%	—	—	6.39

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	49.1%	50.7%	53.9%	0.94×	1.97
Only Cesena scores	23.4%	22.3%	23.9%	0.93×	4.49
Only Empoli scores	16.5%	16.0%	13.3%	1.20×	6.24
Neither team scores	11.0%	11.0%	9.1%	1.21×	9.07

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	27.8%	24.9%	25.8%	0.97×	4.02
Exactly 3 goals	20.7%	22.6%	22.9%	0.99×	4.43
Exactly 1 goals	19.2%	17.5%	17.8%	0.98×	5.73
Exactly 4 goals	12.2%	12.1%	15.9%	0.76×	8.26
Exactly 0 goals	11.0%	12.1%	9.1%	1.33×	8.26
Exactly 5 goals	5.8%	7.6%	5.4%	1.42×	13.14
6 or more goals	3.3%	4.5%	3.7%	1.20×	22.35

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
No goals in 1st half	37.7%	37.3%	—	—	2.69
1 goal in 1st half	36.3%	37.2%	—	—	2.69
2 goals in 1st half	18.3%	15.7%	—	—	6.35
3+ goals in 1st half	7.7%	7.2%	—	—	13.87

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	40.6%	44.4%	—	—	2.25
1 goal in 2nd half	33.7%	34.0%	—	—	2.94
No goals in 2nd half	25.8%	29.0%	—	—	3.45

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Empoli not to win both halves	93.8%	94.2%	—	—	1.06
Cesena not to win both halves	89.6%	88.0%	—	—	1.14
Cesena to win both halves	10.4%	12.0%	—	—	8.36
Empoli to win both halves	6.2%	5.8%	—	—	17.21

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Empoli to win neither half	56.9%	59.0%	—	—	1.69
Cesena to win either half	53.3%	54.4%	—	—	1.84
Cesena to win neither half	46.7%	45.6%	—	—	2.19
Empoli to win either half	43.1%	41.0%	—	—	2.44

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Empoli not to win to nil	83.5%	83.1%	86.7%	0.96×	1.20
Cesena not to win to nil	76.6%	78.1%	76.1%	1.03×	1.28
Cesena to win to nil	23.4%	21.9%	23.9%	0.91×	4.57
Empoli to win to nil	16.5%	16.9%	13.3%	1.27×	5.91

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	30.8%	27.7%	31.9%	0.87×	3.61
Cesena by 1	21.2%	24.1%	23.2%	1.04×	4.15
Empoli by 1	17.3%	17.0%	15.7%	1.09×	5.87
Cesena by 2	12.2%	11.8%	13.1%	0.90×	8.51
Empoli by 2	8.3%	7.2%	6.5%	1.11×	13.91
Cesena by 3+	6.6%	7.2%	6.7%	1.07×	13.91
Empoli by 3+	3.5%	2.7%	3.6%	0.75×	36.86