Ceuta v Real Sociedad II — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 26 September 2026 · ESP-La Liga 2 · 2627
La Liga
results-only Prediction generated
AI prediction
ai-blend v1.0 dailyCalibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (555 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.
Top 5 scorelines
- 1-1 12.4%
- 1-0 11.1%
- 0-1 9.7%
- 2-1 8.6%
- 0-0 7.7%
Goals
| Over 2.5 | 46.4% | Under 2.5 | 53.6% |
| BTTS yes | 51.0% | BTTS no | 49.0% |
| Ceuta 1+ | 74.1% | Ceuta 2+ | 39.1% |
| Real Sociedad II 1+ | 69.2% | Real Sociedad II 2+ | 32.9% |
Expected goals 1.35 – 1.18. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.
Footing
Positive factors
- Nothing in the data singles out Ceuta.
Risk factors
- No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.
Why the model thinks this
The price
Ceuta have an estimated 43.6% win probability, against 28.9% for Real Sociedad II and 27.5% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.35 for Ceuta and 1.18 for Real Sociedad II.
Why Ceuta
Nothing in the data singles out Ceuta.
Why the draw is live
The draw sits at 27.5%. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.35 to 1.18. Draws run at 27% in this competition.
Why Real Sociedad II can win
Nothing in the data singles out Real Sociedad II.
Key players
No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.
Availability
No lineup on record for Ceuta, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Real Sociedad II, so availability is unknown.
The matchup, as far as the data reaches
Ceuta: 49% possession, 8.0 shots a match, 13.8 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Real Sociedad II: 45% possession, 11.0 shots a match, 14.6 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.
Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-08 10:52 · team_stats 2026-09-08 06:03 · availability 2026-09-08 11:54 · prediction 2026-09-08 11:44 ·
Ceuta are the model's most likely outcome at 43.6%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 12.4%. Confidence 54/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.
Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.
Was this pick made in advance?
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend | 1.35–1.18 | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| dc-xg | 1.40–1.25 | 1-1 12% | 49% | 53% |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Using this section
All markets
Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.
1X2 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ceuta to win | 41.0% | 43.8% | 45.5% | 0.96× | 2.29 |
| Real Sociedad II to win | 32.9% | 29.1% | 28.0% | 1.04× | 3.44 |
| Draw | 26.1% | 27.6% | 26.6% | 1.04× | 3.63 |
1X2 & GG/NG 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ceuta & not both score | 23.1% | 22.6% | 23.6% | 0.96× | 4.42 |
| Draw & both teams score | 18.4% | 17.8% | 17.5% | 1.01× | 5.63 |
| Real Sociedad II & not both score | 18.2% | 17.8% | 13.4% | 1.32× | 5.63 |
| Ceuta & both teams score | 17.9% | 17.8% | 22.0% | 0.81× | 5.63 |
| Real Sociedad II & both teams score | 14.6% | 12.2% | 14.7% | 0.83× | 8.21 |
| Draw & not both score | 7.7% | 7.3% | 9.1% | 0.80× | 13.67 |
1X2 & Over/Under 18
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ceuta & under 3.5 | 30.2% | 33.1% | 32.2% | 1.03× | 3.02 |
| Ceuta & over 1.5 | 30.0% | 25.5% | 32.6% | 0.78× | 3.92 |
| Real Sociedad II & under 3.5 | 24.9% | 21.5% | 19.6% | 1.10× | 4.65 |
| Real Sociedad II & over 1.5 | 23.2% | 21.5% | 19.4% | 1.11× | 4.65 |
| Ceuta & over 2.5 | 22.7% | 21.5% | 26.3% | 0.82× | 4.65 |
| Draw & under 2.5 | 20.1% | 21.5% | 20.3% | 1.06× | 4.65 |
| Draw & under 3.5 | 20.1% | 21.5% | 20.3% | 1.06× | 4.65 |
| Draw & over 1.5 | 18.4% | 17.6% | 17.5% | 1.00× | 5.69 |
| Ceuta & under 2.5 | 18.3% | 17.6% | 19.3% | 0.91× | 5.69 |
| Real Sociedad II & over 2.5 | 17.6% | 17.6% | 16.6% | 1.06× | 5.69 |
| Real Sociedad II & under 2.5 | 15.2% | 17.6% | 11.6% | 1.52× | 5.70 |
| Ceuta & under 1.5 | 11.1% | 12.7% | 13.0% | 0.98× | 7.87 |
| Ceuta & over 3.5 | 10.8% | 12.7% | 13.3% | 0.95× | 7.87 |
| Real Sociedad II & under 1.5 | 9.7% | 7.5% | 8.7% | 0.86× | 13.40 |
| Real Sociedad II & over 3.5 | 8.0% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 0.88× | 13.41 |
| Draw & under 1.5 | 7.7% | 7.5% | 9.1% | 0.82× | 13.41 |
| Draw & over 2.5 | 6.0% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 1.16× | 13.42 |
| Draw & over 3.5 | 6.0% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 1.16× | 13.42 |
1X2 1UP 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ceuta (1UP) | 56.3% | 62.2% | — | — | 1.61 |
| Real Sociedad II (1UP) | 49.1% | 44.7% | — | — | 2.24 |
1X2 2UP 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ceuta (2UP) | 41.0% | 46.5% | — | — | 2.15 |
| Real Sociedad II (2UP) | 32.9% | 30.6% | — | — | 3.27 |
2nd half 1X2 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2nd half drawn | 36.9% | 37.5% | — | — | 2.67 |
| Ceuta to win 2nd half | 33.4% | 33.8% | — | — | 2.96 |
| Real Sociedad II to win 2nd half | 29.7% | 27.6% | — | — | 3.63 |
Asian handicap 8
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad II (+2.5) | 93.2% | 92.3% | 92.3% | 1.00× | 1.08 |
| Real Sociedad II (+1.5) | 81.2% | 82.3% | 80.5% | 1.02× | 1.22 |
| Ceuta (+0.5) | 67.1% | 68.9% | 72.0% | 0.96× | 1.45 |
| Real Sociedad II (+0.5) | 59.0% | 57.2% | 54.5% | 1.05× | 1.75 |
| Ceuta (-0.5) | 41.0% | 42.8% | 45.5% | 0.94× | 2.34 |
| Real Sociedad II (-0.5) | 32.9% | 31.1% | 28.0% | 1.11× | 3.22 |
| Ceuta (-1.5) | 18.8% | 17.7% | 19.5% | 0.91× | 5.63 |
| Ceuta (-2.5) | 6.8% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 1.00× | 13.03 |
Away clean sheet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad II to concede | 74.1% | 77.2% | 77.5% | 1.00× | 1.30 |
| Real Sociedad II clean sheet | 25.9% | 22.8% | 22.5% | 1.02× | 4.38 |
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad II clean sheet in 1st half | 56.0% | 60.2% | — | — | 1.66 |
| Real Sociedad II to concede in 1st half | 44.0% | 39.8% | — | — | 2.51 |
Away corners O/U 10
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad II under 6.5 corners | 89.2% | 85.2% | — | — | 1.17 |
| Real Sociedad II under 5.5 corners | 80.9% | 81.4% | — | — | 1.23 |
| Real Sociedad II under 4.5 corners | 68.4% | 67.6% | — | — | 1.48 |
| Real Sociedad II over 2.5 corners | 67.2% | 67.6% | — | — | 1.48 |
| Real Sociedad II under 3.5 corners | 51.7% | 53.1% | — | — | 1.89 |
| Real Sociedad II over 3.5 corners | 48.3% | 46.9% | — | — | 2.13 |
| Real Sociedad II under 2.5 corners | 32.8% | 32.4% | — | — | 3.08 |
| Real Sociedad II over 4.5 corners | 31.6% | 32.4% | — | — | 3.08 |
| Real Sociedad II over 5.5 corners | 19.1% | 18.6% | — | — | 5.37 |
| Real Sociedad II over 6.5 corners | 10.8% | 14.8% | — | — | 6.76 |
Away goals O/U 8
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad II under 3.5 goals | 96.8% | 97.3% | 97.0% | 1.00× | 1.03 |
| Real Sociedad II under 2.5 goals | 88.4% | 89.0% | 89.2% | 1.00× | 1.12 |
| Real Sociedad II over 0.5 goals | 69.2% | 67.3% | 67.3% | 1.00× | 1.49 |
| Real Sociedad II under 1.5 goals | 67.0% | 67.2% | 69.4% | 0.97× | 1.49 |
| Real Sociedad II over 1.5 goals | 33.0% | 32.8% | 30.6% | 1.07× | 3.05 |
| Real Sociedad II under 0.5 goals | 30.8% | 32.7% | 32.7% | 1.00× | 3.06 |
| Real Sociedad II over 2.5 goals | 11.6% | 11.0% | 10.8% | 1.02× | 9.07 |
| Real Sociedad II over 3.5 goals | 3.2% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 0.88× | 37.29 |
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad II under 1.5 in 1st half | 91.8% | 93.2% | — | — | 1.07 |
| Real Sociedad II under 0.5 in 1st half | 62.4% | 63.6% | — | — | 1.57 |
| Real Sociedad II over 0.5 in 1st half | 37.6% | 36.4% | — | — | 2.75 |
| Real Sociedad II over 1.5 in 1st half | 8.2% | 6.8% | — | — | 14.75 |
Away no bet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ceuta (away no bet) | 61.1% | 58.9% | 63.1% | 0.93× | 1.70 |
| Draw (away no bet) | 38.9% | 41.1% | 36.9% | 1.12× | 2.43 |
Away Odd/Even 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad II even goals | 54.7% | 52.5% | 54.7% | 0.96× | 1.91 |
| Real Sociedad II odd goals | 45.3% | 47.5% | 45.3% | 1.05× | 2.10 |
Both halves O1.5 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both halves over 1.5 | 87.7% | 86.4% | — | — | 1.16 |
| Both halves over 1.5 goals | 12.3% | 13.6% | — | — | 7.37 |
Both halves U1.5 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both halves under 1.5 | 59.3% | 56.0% | — | — | 1.79 |
| Both halves under 1.5 goals | 40.7% | 44.0% | — | — | 2.27 |
Consecutive goals 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Either team to score 2+ in a row | 51.6% | 52.8% | — | — | 1.89 |
| Ceuta to score 2+ in a row | 31.5% | 33.8% | — | — | 2.96 |
| Real Sociedad II to score 2+ in a row | 25.4% | 25.1% | — | — | 3.99 |
| Either team to score 3+ in a row | 16.8% | 17.8% | — | — | 5.62 |
| Ceuta to score 3+ in a row | 10.1% | 12.1% | — | — | 8.24 |
| Real Sociedad II to score 3+ in a row | 7.0% | 7.3% | — | — | 13.65 |
Corner handicap 12
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ceuta corners (+3.5) | 92.7% | 89.5% | — | — | 1.12 |
| Ceuta corners (+2.5) | 87.7% | 84.5% | — | — | 1.18 |
| Ceuta corners (+1.5) | 80.5% | 79.8% | — | — | 1.25 |
| Real Sociedad II corners (+3.5) | 73.6% | 70.8% | — | — | 1.41 |
| Real Sociedad II corners (+2.5) | 63.4% | 61.9% | — | — | 1.62 |
| Real Sociedad II corners (+1.5) | 51.9% | 52.5% | — | — | 1.91 |
| Ceuta corners (-1.5) | 48.1% | 47.5% | — | — | 2.10 |
| Ceuta corners (-2.5) | 36.6% | 38.1% | — | — | 2.62 |
| Ceuta corners (-3.5) | 26.4% | 29.2% | — | — | 3.42 |
| Real Sociedad II corners (-1.5) | 19.5% | 20.2% | — | — | 4.95 |
| Real Sociedad II corners (-2.5) | 12.3% | 15.5% | — | — | 6.45 |
| Real Sociedad II corners (-3.5) | 7.3% | 10.5% | — | — | 9.57 |
Corner range 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-8 corners | 50.1% | 45.3% | — | — | 2.21 |
| 9-11 corners | 29.1% | 31.2% | — | — | 3.20 |
| 12+ corners | 20.9% | 25.6% | — | — | 3.91 |
Corners O/U 12
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 12.5 corners | 85.5% | 83.0% | — | — | 1.21 |
| Under 11.5 corners | 79.1% | 76.5% | — | — | 1.31 |
| Under 10.5 corners | 71.0% | 72.6% | — | — | 1.38 |
| Over 7.5 corners | 61.6% | 63.3% | — | — | 1.58 |
| Under 9.5 corners | 61.2% | 63.3% | — | — | 1.58 |
| Under 8.5 corners | 50.1% | 53.2% | — | — | 1.88 |
| Over 8.5 corners | 49.9% | 46.8% | — | — | 2.14 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 38.8% | 36.7% | — | — | 2.72 |
| Under 7.5 corners | 38.4% | 36.7% | — | — | 2.72 |
| Over 10.5 corners | 29.0% | 27.4% | — | — | 3.64 |
| Over 11.5 corners | 20.9% | 23.5% | — | — | 4.26 |
| Over 12.5 corners | 14.5% | 17.0% | — | — | 5.87 |
Corners Odd/Even 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odd number of corners | 50.0% | 50.2% | — | — | 1.99 |
| Even number of corners | 50.0% | 49.9% | — | — | 2.01 |
Correct score 26
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 12.4% | 11.6% | 11.2% | 1.03× | 8.63 |
| 1-0 | 11.1% | 11.6% | 13.0% | 0.89× | 8.64 |
| 0-1 | 9.7% | 7.3% | 8.7% | 0.84× | 13.74 |
| 2-1 | 8.6% | 7.3% | 10.1% | 0.72× | 13.74 |
| 0-0 | 7.7% | 7.3% | 9.1% | 0.80× | 13.74 |
| 1-2 | 7.5% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 1.03× | 13.75 |
| 2-0 | 7.3% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 1.14× | 13.75 |
| 0-2 | 5.5% | 7.3% | 2.9% | 2.47× | 13.75 |
| 2-2 | 5.0% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 1.28× | 13.76 |
| 3-1 | 3.9% | 1.8% | 4.5% | 0.40× | 55.41 |
| 1-3 | 2.9% | 1.8% | 3.6% | 0.51× | 55.44 |
| 3-0 | 3.3% | 1.8% | 3.0% | 0.59× | 55.43 |
| 0-3 | 2.2% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 1.43× | 55.45 |
| 2-3 | 2.0% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 0.78× | 55.46 |
| 3-2 | 2.3% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 0.64× | 55.45 |
| 4-1 | 1.3% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 0.95× | 55.48 |
| Any other score | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 0.66× | 55.46 |
| 0-4 | 0.6% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 2.45× | 55.49 |
| 1-4 | 0.9% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 2.14× | 55.49 |
| 2-4 | 0.6% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 2.45× | 55.49 |
| 3-3 | 0.9% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 2.45× | 55.49 |
| 3-4 | 0.3% | 1.8% | 0.2% | 8.58× | 55.50 |
| 4-0 | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 1.56× | 55.48 |
| 4-2 | 0.8% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 1.56× | 55.49 |
| 4-3 | 0.3% | 1.8% | 0.3% | 5.72× | 55.50 |
| 4-4 | 0.1% | 1.8% | 0.2% | 8.58× | 55.51 |
DNB half time 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ceuta leading at HT (DNB) | 56.6% | 56.7% | — | — | 1.77 |
| Real Sociedad II leading at HT (DNB) | 43.4% | 43.3% | — | — | 2.31 |
Double chance 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ceuta or Real Sociedad II (12) | 73.9% | 72.4% | 73.4% | 0.99× | 1.38 |
| Ceuta or draw (1X) | 67.1% | 70.9% | 72.0% | 0.99× | 1.41 |
| Real Sociedad II or draw (X2) | 59.0% | 56.2% | 54.5% | 1.03× | 1.78 |
Double chance 1HT 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ceuta or draw at HT | 76.1% | 78.7% | — | — | 1.27 |
| Real Sociedad II or draw at HT | 68.9% | 66.3% | — | — | 1.51 |
| Ceuta or Real Sociedad II at HT | 54.9% | 52.1% | — | — | 1.92 |
Double chance 1UP 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ceuta or draw (1UP) | 67.1% | 75.0% | — | — | 1.33 |
| Real Sociedad II or draw (1UP) | 59.0% | 64.0% | — | — | 1.56 |
Double chance 2HT 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ceuta or draw in 2nd half | 70.3% | 72.4% | — | — | 1.38 |
| Real Sociedad II or draw in 2nd half | 66.6% | 66.2% | — | — | 1.51 |
| Ceuta or Real Sociedad II in 2nd half | 63.1% | 62.5% | — | — | 1.60 |
Draw either half 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A half drawn | 65.6% | 66.0% | — | — | 1.52 |
| Neither half drawn | 34.4% | 34.0% | — | — | 2.94 |
Draw no bet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ceuta (DNB) | 55.5% | 63.0% | 61.9% | 1.02× | 1.59 |
| Real Sociedad II (DNB) | 44.5% | 37.0% | 38.1% | 0.97× | 2.70 |
First goal 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ceuta to score first | 49.3% | 46.3% | — | — | 2.16 |
| Real Sociedad II to score first | 43.0% | 41.4% | — | — | 2.41 |
| No goal scored | 7.7% | 6.3% | — | — | 15.97 |
GG/NG 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 51.0% | 52.8% | 54.0% | 0.98× | 1.89 |
| Not both teams to score | 49.0% | 47.2% | 46.0% | 1.03× | 2.12 |
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both score & under 2.5 | 41.2% | 42.2% | 39.8% | 1.06× | 2.37 |
| Both score & over 2.5 | 38.6% | 37.5% | 42.9% | 0.87× | 2.67 |
| Both score & under 2.5 | 12.4% | 11.7% | 11.2% | 1.04× | 8.53 |
| Not both score & over 2.5 | 7.8% | 8.7% | 6.3% | 1.38× | 11.47 |
GG/NG 2+ 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both teams to score 2+ | 87.1% | 85.5% | 85.6% | 1.00× | 1.17 |
| Both teams to score 2+ | 12.9% | 14.5% | 14.4% | 1.00× | 6.92 |
GG/NG 2nd half 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both to score in 2nd half | 72.9% | 70.4% | — | — | 1.42 |
| Both teams to score in 2nd half | 27.1% | 29.6% | — | — | 3.38 |
GG/NG by half 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neither half both score | 60.9% | 59.4% | — | — | 1.68 |
| Both score 2nd half only | 22.6% | 24.4% | — | — | 4.10 |
| Both score 1st half only | 12.0% | 11.6% | — | — | 8.66 |
| Both score in both halves | 4.5% | 4.8% | — | — | 20.70 |
GG/NG half time 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both to score by HT | 83.5% | 83.2% | — | — | 1.20 |
| Both teams to score by HT | 16.5% | 16.8% | — | — | 5.96 |
Goal in both halves 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A goal in each half | 50.1% | 54.6% | — | — | 1.83 |
| A half without a goal | 49.9% | 45.4% | — | — | 2.20 |
Goal range 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2-3 goals | 46.7% | 45.9% | 41.4% | 1.11× | 2.18 |
| 0-1 goals | 28.4% | 27.7% | 30.7% | 0.90× | 3.61 |
| 4-6 goals | 23.4% | 22.8% | 26.6% | 0.86× | 4.38 |
| 7+ goals | 1.5% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 1.23× | 51.73 |
Goals away 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad II to score exactly 1 | 36.3% | 34.6% | 36.9% | 0.94× | 2.89 |
| Real Sociedad II to score exactly 0 | 30.8% | 33.2% | 32.7% | 1.02× | 3.01 |
| Real Sociedad II to score exactly 2 | 21.4% | 23.9% | 19.9% | 1.21× | 4.18 |
| Real Sociedad II to score 3+ | 11.6% | 13.4% | 10.8% | 1.24× | 7.48 |
Goals home 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ceuta to score exactly 1 | 35.0% | 30.6% | 35.6% | 0.86× | 3.27 |
| Ceuta to score exactly 0 | 25.9% | 27.0% | 22.5% | 1.20× | 3.70 |
| Ceuta to score exactly 2 | 23.6% | 23.0% | 25.0% | 0.92× | 4.35 |
| Ceuta to score 3+ | 15.5% | 18.4% | 17.1% | 1.08× | 5.42 |
Half time 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draw at HT | 45.1% | 47.9% | — | — | 2.09 |
| Ceuta leading at HT | 31.1% | 33.7% | — | — | 2.97 |
| Real Sociedad II leading at HT | 23.9% | 21.3% | — | — | 4.69 |
Handicap 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ceuta -1: 2 | 59.0% | 56.2% | — | — | 1.78 |
| Ceuta -1: X | 22.2% | 23.9% | — | — | 4.18 |
| Ceuta -1: 1 | 18.8% | 19.0% | — | — | 5.27 |
Handicap 0:1 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad II (0:1) | 59.0% | 55.5% | 54.5% | 1.02× | 1.80 |
| Draw (0:1) | 22.2% | 24.4% | 26.1% | 0.94× | 4.10 |
| Ceuta (0:1) | 18.8% | 18.3% | 19.5% | 0.94× | 5.46 |
Handicap 0:2 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad II (0:2) | 81.2% | 83.5% | 80.5% | 1.04× | 1.20 |
| Draw (0:2) | 12.0% | 11.7% | 12.0% | 0.98× | 8.54 |
| Ceuta (0:2) | 6.8% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 0.93× | 13.96 |
Handicap 0:3 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad II (0:3) | 93.2% | 92.6% | 92.3% | 1.00× | 1.08 |
| Draw (0:3) | 4.8% | 2.4% | 5.4% | 0.44× | 42.55 |
| Ceuta (0:3) | 2.0% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 0.96× | 43.16 |
Handicap 0:4 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad II (0:4) | 98.0% | 98.1% | 97.6% | 1.01× | 1.02 |
| Draw (0:4) | 1.5% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 0.59× | 80.57 |
| Ceuta (0:4) | 0.5% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 2.93× | 81.10 |
Handicap 1:0 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ceuta (1:0) | 67.1% | 70.2% | 72.0% | 0.98× | 1.42 |
| Draw (1:0) | 19.4% | 16.4% | 18.0% | 0.91× | 6.09 |
| Real Sociedad II (1:0) | 13.4% | 11.8% | 10.2% | 1.16× | 8.47 |
Handicap 2:0 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ceuta (2:0) | 86.6% | 89.2% | 89.8% | 0.99× | 1.12 |
| Draw (2:0) | 9.1% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 0.94× | 15.05 |
| Real Sociedad II (2:0) | 4.3% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 0.84× | 36.76 |
Highest scoring half 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2nd half highest scoring | 47.2% | 48.7% | — | — | 2.05 |
| 1st half highest scoring | 27.2% | 26.1% | — | — | 3.83 |
| Halves equal | 25.7% | 26.1% | — | — | 3.83 |
Home clean sheet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ceuta to concede | 69.2% | 67.0% | 67.3% | 1.00× | 1.49 |
| Ceuta clean sheet | 30.8% | 33.0% | 32.7% | 1.01× | 3.03 |
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ceuta clean sheet in 1st half | 62.4% | 63.4% | — | — | 1.58 |
| Ceuta to concede in 1st half | 37.6% | 36.6% | — | — | 2.73 |
Home corners O/U 10
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ceuta over 2.5 corners | 83.4% | 81.0% | — | — | 1.24 |
| Ceuta under 6.5 corners | 72.5% | 71.8% | — | — | 1.39 |
| Ceuta over 3.5 corners | 69.7% | 66.7% | — | — | 1.50 |
| Ceuta under 5.5 corners | 60.2% | 62.2% | — | — | 1.61 |
| Ceuta over 4.5 corners | 54.4% | 52.6% | — | — | 1.90 |
| Ceuta under 4.5 corners | 45.6% | 47.4% | — | — | 2.11 |
| Ceuta over 5.5 corners | 39.8% | 37.8% | — | — | 2.65 |
| Ceuta under 3.5 corners | 30.3% | 33.3% | — | — | 3.01 |
| Ceuta over 6.5 corners | 27.5% | 28.2% | — | — | 3.55 |
| Ceuta under 2.5 corners | 16.6% | 19.0% | — | — | 5.26 |
Home goals O/U 8
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ceuta under 3.5 goals | 95.2% | 97.7% | 93.7% | 1.04× | 1.02 |
| Ceuta under 2.5 goals | 84.5% | 82.5% | 82.9% | 1.00× | 1.21 |
| Ceuta over 0.5 goals | 74.1% | 72.8% | 77.5% | 0.94× | 1.37 |
| Ceuta under 1.5 goals | 60.9% | 62.6% | 58.0% | 1.08× | 1.60 |
| Ceuta over 1.5 goals | 39.1% | 37.4% | 42.0% | 0.89× | 2.67 |
| Ceuta under 0.5 goals | 25.9% | 27.2% | 22.5% | 1.21× | 3.68 |
| Ceuta over 2.5 goals | 15.5% | 17.5% | 17.1% | 1.02× | 5.71 |
| Ceuta over 3.5 goals | 4.8% | 2.3% | 6.3% | 0.37× | 43.17 |
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ceuta under 1.5 in 1st half | 88.4% | 87.8% | — | — | 1.14 |
| Ceuta under 0.5 in 1st half | 56.0% | 60.0% | — | — | 1.67 |
| Ceuta over 0.5 in 1st half | 44.0% | 40.0% | — | — | 2.50 |
| Ceuta over 1.5 in 1st half | 11.6% | 12.2% | — | — | 8.23 |
Home no bet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad II (home no bet) | 55.7% | 54.2% | 51.3% | 1.06× | 1.85 |
| Draw (home no bet) | 44.3% | 45.8% | 48.7% | 0.94× | 2.18 |
Home Odd/Even 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ceuta even goals | 53.4% | 50.3% | 51.8% | 0.97× | 1.99 |
| Ceuta odd goals | 46.6% | 49.7% | 48.2% | 1.03× | 2.01 |
HT correct score 10
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HT 0-0 | 34.9% | 30.6% | — | — | 3.27 |
| HT 1-0 | 20.3% | 22.6% | — | — | 4.43 |
| HT 0-1 | 16.5% | 18.9% | — | — | 5.30 |
| HT 1-1 | 9.5% | 7.7% | — | — | 12.97 |
| HT 2-0 | 5.9% | 7.7% | — | — | 13.02 |
| HT 0-2 | 3.9% | 2.5% | — | — | 39.78 |
| Any other HT score | 3.3% | 2.5% | — | — | 39.81 |
| HT 2-1 | 2.8% | 2.5% | — | — | 39.84 |
| HT 1-2 | 2.3% | 2.5% | — | — | 39.87 |
| HT 2-2 | 0.7% | 2.5% | — | — | 39.96 |
HT/FT 9
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ceuta at HT / Ceuta at FT | 23.7% | 21.5% | — | — | 4.66 |
| Real Sociedad II at HT / Real Sociedad II at FT | 17.2% | 16.8% | — | — | 5.96 |
| Draw at HT / Draw at FT | 16.3% | 16.8% | — | — | 5.97 |
| Draw at HT / Ceuta at FT | 15.2% | 16.7% | — | — | 5.97 |
| Draw at HT / Real Sociedad II at FT | 13.5% | 12.0% | — | — | 8.35 |
| Ceuta at HT / Draw at FT | 5.2% | 6.6% | — | — | 15.27 |
| Real Sociedad II at HT / Draw at FT | 4.6% | 3.4% | — | — | 29.32 |
| Ceuta at HT / Real Sociedad II at FT | 2.1% | 3.4% | — | — | 29.42 |
| Real Sociedad II at HT / Ceuta at FT | 2.1% | 3.4% | — | — | 29.42 |
Last goal 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ceuta to score last | 49.3% | 49.2% | — | — | 2.03 |
| Real Sociedad II to score last | 43.0% | 40.4% | — | — | 2.48 |
| No goal scored | 7.7% | 6.3% | — | — | 15.97 |
Lead at any time 9
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Either team to lead by 1 at any time | 92.3% | 93.7% | — | — | 1.07 |
| Ceuta to lead by 1 at any time | 56.3% | 59.6% | — | — | 1.68 |
| Real Sociedad II to lead by 1 at any time | 49.1% | 46.2% | — | — | 2.17 |
| Either team to lead by 2 at any time | 42.9% | 42.1% | — | — | 2.38 |
| Ceuta to lead by 2 at any time | 24.4% | 19.8% | — | — | 5.04 |
| Real Sociedad II to lead by 2 at any time | 18.6% | 17.7% | — | — | 5.66 |
| Either team to lead by 3 at any time | 14.1% | 11.4% | — | — | 8.81 |
| Ceuta to lead by 3 at any time | 8.5% | 7.1% | — | — | 14.15 |
| Real Sociedad II to lead by 3 at any time | 5.6% | 7.0% | — | — | 14.26 |
Most corners 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ceuta most corners | 60.0% | 55.6% | — | — | 1.80 |
| Real Sociedad II most corners | 28.9% | 31.1% | — | — | 3.22 |
| Corners level | 11.1% | 10.4% | — | — | 9.60 |
Multi goal 15
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-5 goals | 87.9% | 87.9% | 85.8% | 1.02× | 1.14 |
| 1-4 goals | 81.0% | 81.5% | 78.0% | 1.04× | 1.23 |
| 2-6 goals | 70.1% | 73.6% | 67.9% | 1.08× | 1.36 |
| 1-3 goals | 67.5% | 68.3% | 62.9% | 1.09× | 1.46 |
| 2-5 goals | 67.2% | 68.3% | 64.3% | 1.06× | 1.46 |
| 2-4 goals | 60.3% | 62.2% | 56.5% | 1.10× | 1.61 |
| 2-3 goals | 46.7% | 48.0% | 41.4% | 1.16× | 2.08 |
| 1-2 goals | 46.0% | 48.0% | 41.9% | 1.15× | 2.08 |
| 3-6 goals | 44.9% | 43.6% | 47.6% | 0.92× | 2.29 |
| 3-5 goals | 42.0% | 43.6% | 44.0% | 0.99× | 2.29 |
| 3-4 goals | 35.1% | 38.8% | 36.2% | 1.07× | 2.58 |
| 4-6 goals | 23.4% | 24.7% | 26.6% | 0.93× | 4.04 |
| 4-5 goals | 20.5% | 24.7% | 23.0% | 1.07× | 4.05 |
| 5-6 goals | 9.8% | 8.9% | 11.5% | 0.78× | 11.26 |
| 7+ goals | 1.5% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 1.28× | 49.71 |
Never down 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ceuta never behind | 43.2% | 50.8% | — | — | 1.97 |
| Real Sociedad II never behind | 36.1% | 45.3% | — | — | 2.21 |
Odd/Even 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Even number of goals | 49.7% | 50.1% | 48.4% | 1.04× | 1.99 |
| Odd number of goals | 50.3% | 49.9% | 51.6% | 0.97× | 2.01 |
Odd/Even 1HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Even goals in 1st half | 56.0% | 55.3% | — | — | 1.81 |
| Odd goals in 1st half | 44.0% | 44.7% | — | — | 2.24 |
Odd/Even 2HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Even goals in 2nd half | 52.4% | 51.7% | — | — | 1.94 |
| Odd goals in 2nd half | 47.6% | 48.3% | — | — | 2.07 |
Over/Under 12
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 5.5 goals | 95.6% | 95.6% | 94.9% | 1.01× | 1.05 |
| Over 0.5 goals | 92.3% | 92.9% | 90.9% | 1.02× | 1.08 |
| Under 4.5 goals | 88.7% | 88.8% | 87.1% | 1.02× | 1.13 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 75.1% | 78.2% | 72.0% | 1.09× | 1.28 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.6% | 72.4% | 69.3% | 1.04× | 1.38 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 53.6% | 53.6% | 50.9% | 1.05× | 1.87 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.4% | 46.4% | 49.1% | 0.95× | 2.15 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 28.4% | 27.6% | 30.7% | 0.90× | 3.62 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24.9% | 21.8% | 28.0% | 0.78× | 4.59 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 11.3% | 11.2% | 12.9% | 0.87× | 8.92 |
| Under 0.5 goals | 7.7% | 7.1% | 9.1% | 0.77× | 14.17 |
| Over 5.5 goals | 4.4% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 0.85× | 22.80 |
Over/Under (whole line) 10
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 6 (void on exactly 6) | 98.5% | 97.2% | 98.4% | 0.99× | 1.03 |
| Under 5 (void on exactly 5) | 95.3% | 97.2% | 94.4% | 1.03× | 1.03 |
| Under 4 (void on exactly 4) | 87.0% | 88.1% | 84.8% | 1.04× | 1.14 |
| Under 3 (void on exactly 3) | 68.3% | 68.1% | 64.5% | 1.06× | 1.47 |
| Over 2 (void on exactly 2) | 62.0% | 62.4% | 61.5% | 1.01× | 1.60 |
| Under 2 (void on exactly 2) | 38.0% | 37.6% | 38.5% | 0.98× | 2.66 |
| Over 3 (void on exactly 3) | 31.7% | 31.9% | 35.5% | 0.90× | 3.13 |
| Over 4 (void on exactly 4) | 13.0% | 11.9% | 15.2% | 0.78× | 8.39 |
| Over 5 (void on exactly 5) | 4.7% | 2.8% | 5.6% | 0.50× | 35.72 |
| Over 6 (void on exactly 6) | 1.5% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 1.69× | 36.22 |
Over/Under 1HT 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 2.5 in 1st half | 91.0% | 92.2% | — | — | 1.09 |
| Under 1.5 in 1st half | 71.7% | 72.4% | — | — | 1.38 |
| Over 0.5 in 1st half | 65.1% | 68.5% | — | — | 1.46 |
| Under 0.5 in 1st half | 34.9% | 31.5% | — | — | 3.18 |
| Over 1.5 in 1st half | 28.3% | 27.6% | — | — | 3.63 |
| Over 2.5 in 1st half | 9.0% | 7.8% | — | — | 12.78 |
Over/Under 2HT 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 2.5 in 2nd half | 81.5% | 82.0% | — | — | 1.22 |
| Over 0.5 in 2nd half | 77.3% | 80.3% | — | — | 1.25 |
| Under 1.5 in 2nd half | 56.7% | 54.2% | — | — | 1.85 |
| Over 1.5 in 2nd half | 43.3% | 45.8% | — | — | 2.18 |
| Under 0.5 in 2nd half | 22.7% | 19.7% | — | — | 5.06 |
| Over 2.5 in 2nd half | 18.5% | 18.0% | — | — | 5.57 |
Score both halves 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad II not to score in both halves | 80.9% | 81.5% | — | — | 1.23 |
| Ceuta not to score in both halves | 76.4% | 78.1% | — | — | 1.28 |
| Ceuta to score in both halves | 23.6% | 22.0% | — | — | 4.56 |
| Real Sociedad II to score in both halves | 19.1% | 18.5% | — | — | 5.39 |
Teams to score 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams score | 51.0% | 54.6% | 54.0% | 1.01× | 1.83 |
| Only Ceuta scores | 23.1% | 22.9% | 23.6% | 0.97× | 4.37 |
| Only Real Sociedad II scores | 18.2% | 16.4% | 13.4% | 1.22× | 6.09 |
| Neither team scores | 7.7% | 6.7% | 9.1% | 0.73× | 15.02 |
Total goals 7
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exactly 2 goals | 25.2% | 24.7% | 20.4% | 1.21× | 4.05 |
| Exactly 3 goals | 21.5% | 21.5% | 21.1% | 1.02× | 4.64 |
| Exactly 1 goals | 20.8% | 21.5% | 21.6% | 1.00× | 4.64 |
| Exactly 4 goals | 13.6% | 12.4% | 15.2% | 0.81× | 8.08 |
| Exactly 0 goals | 7.7% | 7.6% | 9.1% | 0.83× | 13.13 |
| Exactly 5 goals | 6.9% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 0.97× | 13.14 |
| 6 or more goals | 4.4% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 0.85× | 22.85 |
Total goals 2nd half 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2+ goals in 2nd half | 43.3% | 46.4% | — | — | 2.16 |
| 1 goal in 2nd half | 33.9% | 33.2% | — | — | 3.01 |
| No goals in 2nd half | 22.7% | 18.5% | — | — | 5.40 |
Win both halves 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad II not to win both halves | 93.0% | 93.4% | — | — | 1.07 |
| Ceuta not to win both halves | 89.7% | 87.6% | — | — | 1.14 |
| Ceuta to win both halves | 10.3% | 12.4% | — | — | 8.09 |
| Real Sociedad II to win both halves | 7.0% | 6.6% | — | — | 15.11 |
Win either half 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ceuta to win either half | 54.2% | 54.0% | — | — | 1.85 |
| Real Sociedad II to win neither half | 53.5% | 54.0% | — | — | 1.85 |
| Real Sociedad II to win either half | 46.5% | 46.0% | — | — | 2.17 |
| Ceuta to win neither half | 45.8% | 46.0% | — | — | 2.17 |
Win to nil 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad II not to win to nil | 81.8% | 83.2% | 86.6% | 0.96× | 1.20 |
| Ceuta not to win to nil | 76.9% | 77.1% | 76.4% | 1.01× | 1.30 |
| Ceuta to win to nil | 23.1% | 22.9% | 23.6% | 0.97× | 4.37 |
| Real Sociedad II to win to nil | 18.2% | 16.8% | 13.4% | 1.25× | 5.96 |
Winning margin 7
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draw | 26.1% | 28.0% | 26.6% | 1.05× | 3.57 |
| Ceuta by 1 | 22.2% | 23.7% | 26.1% | 0.91× | 4.21 |
| Real Sociedad II by 1 | 19.4% | 17.0% | 18.0% | 0.95× | 5.88 |
| Ceuta by 2 | 12.0% | 11.9% | 12.0% | 0.99× | 8.44 |
| Real Sociedad II by 2 | 9.1% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 1.01× | 14.07 |
| Ceuta by 3+ | 6.8% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 0.92× | 14.12 |
| Real Sociedad II by 3+ | 4.3% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 0.87× | 35.16 |