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Ceuta v Real Sociedad II — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 26 September 2026 · ESP-La Liga 2 · 2627

La Liga results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily
Ceuta win
43.6%
model 41.0%
Draw
27.5%
model 26.1%
Real Sociedad II win
28.9%
model 32.9%

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (555 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

  1. 1-1 12.4%
  2. 1-0 11.1%
  3. 0-1 9.7%
  4. 2-1 8.6%
  5. 0-0 7.7%

Goals

Over 2.546.4% Under 2.553.6%
BTTS yes51.0% BTTS no49.0%
Ceuta 1+74.1% Ceuta 2+39.1%
Real Sociedad II 1+69.2% Real Sociedad II 2+32.9%

Expected goals 1.35 – 1.18. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence
54/100
Data quality
65/100
Model agreement
99%
★ Best pick
1-3 goals
Multi goal · usually 63%
68.3% fair odds 1.46
moderate signal · 2505 settled matches behind the band
★ Most likely to land
Real Sociedad II (0:2)
Handicap 0:2 · usually 81%
83.5% fair odds 1.20
moderate signal · 453 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

  • Nothing in the data singles out Ceuta.

Risk factors

  • No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.
Why the model thinks this

The price

Ceuta have an estimated 43.6% win probability, against 28.9% for Real Sociedad II and 27.5% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.35 for Ceuta and 1.18 for Real Sociedad II.

Why Ceuta

Nothing in the data singles out Ceuta.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 27.5%. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.35 to 1.18. Draws run at 27% in this competition.

Why Real Sociedad II can win

Nothing in the data singles out Real Sociedad II.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Ceuta, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Real Sociedad II, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Ceuta: 49% possession, 8.0 shots a match, 13.8 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Real Sociedad II: 45% possession, 11.0 shots a match, 14.6 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-08 10:52 · team_stats 2026-09-08 06:03 · availability 2026-09-08 11:54 · prediction 2026-09-08 11:44 ·

Ceuta are the model's most likely outcome at 43.6%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 12.4%. Confidence 54/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
ai-blend 1.35–1.18 0% 0% 0%
dc-xg 1.40–1.25 1-1 12% 49% 53%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Ceuta to win 41.0% 43.8% 45.5% 0.96× 2.29
Real Sociedad II to win 32.9% 29.1% 28.0% 1.04× 3.44
Draw 26.1% 27.6% 26.6% 1.04× 3.63
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Ceuta & not both score 23.1% 22.6% 23.6% 0.96× 4.42
Draw & both teams score 18.4% 17.8% 17.5% 1.01× 5.63
Real Sociedad II & not both score 18.2% 17.8% 13.4% 1.32× 5.63
Ceuta & both teams score 17.9% 17.8% 22.0% 0.81× 5.63
Real Sociedad II & both teams score 14.6% 12.2% 14.7% 0.83× 8.21
Draw & not both score 7.7% 7.3% 9.1% 0.80× 13.67
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Ceuta & under 3.5 30.2% 33.1% 32.2% 1.03× 3.02
Ceuta & over 1.5 30.0% 25.5% 32.6% 0.78× 3.92
Real Sociedad II & under 3.5 24.9% 21.5% 19.6% 1.10× 4.65
Real Sociedad II & over 1.5 23.2% 21.5% 19.4% 1.11× 4.65
Ceuta & over 2.5 22.7% 21.5% 26.3% 0.82× 4.65
Draw & under 2.5 20.1% 21.5% 20.3% 1.06× 4.65
Draw & under 3.5 20.1% 21.5% 20.3% 1.06× 4.65
Draw & over 1.5 18.4% 17.6% 17.5% 1.00× 5.69
Ceuta & under 2.5 18.3% 17.6% 19.3% 0.91× 5.69
Real Sociedad II & over 2.5 17.6% 17.6% 16.6% 1.06× 5.69
Real Sociedad II & under 2.5 15.2% 17.6% 11.6% 1.52× 5.70
Ceuta & under 1.5 11.1% 12.7% 13.0% 0.98× 7.87
Ceuta & over 3.5 10.8% 12.7% 13.3% 0.95× 7.87
Real Sociedad II & under 1.5 9.7% 7.5% 8.7% 0.86× 13.40
Real Sociedad II & over 3.5 8.0% 7.5% 8.5% 0.88× 13.41
Draw & under 1.5 7.7% 7.5% 9.1% 0.82× 13.41
Draw & over 2.5 6.0% 7.5% 6.4% 1.16× 13.42
Draw & over 3.5 6.0% 7.5% 6.4% 1.16× 13.42
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Ceuta (1UP) 56.3% 62.2% 1.61
Real Sociedad II (1UP) 49.1% 44.7% 2.24
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Ceuta (2UP) 41.0% 46.5% 2.15
Real Sociedad II (2UP) 32.9% 30.6% 3.27
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half drawn 36.9% 37.5% 2.67
Ceuta to win 2nd half 33.4% 33.8% 2.96
Real Sociedad II to win 2nd half 29.7% 27.6% 3.63
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Real Sociedad II (+2.5) 93.2% 92.3% 92.3% 1.00× 1.08
Real Sociedad II (+1.5) 81.2% 82.3% 80.5% 1.02× 1.22
Ceuta (+0.5) 67.1% 68.9% 72.0% 0.96× 1.45
Real Sociedad II (+0.5) 59.0% 57.2% 54.5% 1.05× 1.75
Ceuta (-0.5) 41.0% 42.8% 45.5% 0.94× 2.34
Real Sociedad II (-0.5) 32.9% 31.1% 28.0% 1.11× 3.22
Ceuta (-1.5) 18.8% 17.7% 19.5% 0.91× 5.63
Ceuta (-2.5) 6.8% 7.7% 7.7% 1.00× 13.03
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Real Sociedad II to concede 74.1% 77.2% 77.5% 1.00× 1.30
Real Sociedad II clean sheet 25.9% 22.8% 22.5% 1.02× 4.38
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Real Sociedad II clean sheet in 1st half 56.0% 60.2% 1.66
Real Sociedad II to concede in 1st half 44.0% 39.8% 2.51
Away corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Real Sociedad II under 6.5 corners 89.2% 85.2% 1.17
Real Sociedad II under 5.5 corners 80.9% 81.4% 1.23
Real Sociedad II under 4.5 corners 68.4% 67.6% 1.48
Real Sociedad II over 2.5 corners 67.2% 67.6% 1.48
Real Sociedad II under 3.5 corners 51.7% 53.1% 1.89
Real Sociedad II over 3.5 corners 48.3% 46.9% 2.13
Real Sociedad II under 2.5 corners 32.8% 32.4% 3.08
Real Sociedad II over 4.5 corners 31.6% 32.4% 3.08
Real Sociedad II over 5.5 corners 19.1% 18.6% 5.37
Real Sociedad II over 6.5 corners 10.8% 14.8% 6.76
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Real Sociedad II under 3.5 goals 96.8% 97.3% 97.0% 1.00× 1.03
Real Sociedad II under 2.5 goals 88.4% 89.0% 89.2% 1.00× 1.12
Real Sociedad II over 0.5 goals 69.2% 67.3% 67.3% 1.00× 1.49
Real Sociedad II under 1.5 goals 67.0% 67.2% 69.4% 0.97× 1.49
Real Sociedad II over 1.5 goals 33.0% 32.8% 30.6% 1.07× 3.05
Real Sociedad II under 0.5 goals 30.8% 32.7% 32.7% 1.00× 3.06
Real Sociedad II over 2.5 goals 11.6% 11.0% 10.8% 1.02× 9.07
Real Sociedad II over 3.5 goals 3.2% 2.7% 3.0% 0.88× 37.29
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Real Sociedad II under 1.5 in 1st half 91.8% 93.2% 1.07
Real Sociedad II under 0.5 in 1st half 62.4% 63.6% 1.57
Real Sociedad II over 0.5 in 1st half 37.6% 36.4% 2.75
Real Sociedad II over 1.5 in 1st half 8.2% 6.8% 14.75
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Ceuta (away no bet) 61.1% 58.9% 63.1% 0.93× 1.70
Draw (away no bet) 38.9% 41.1% 36.9% 1.12× 2.43
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Real Sociedad II even goals 54.7% 52.5% 54.7% 0.96× 1.91
Real Sociedad II odd goals 45.3% 47.5% 45.3% 1.05× 2.10
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 87.7% 86.4% 1.16
Both halves over 1.5 goals 12.3% 13.6% 7.37
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves under 1.5 59.3% 56.0% 1.79
Both halves under 1.5 goals 40.7% 44.0% 2.27
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 51.6% 52.8% 1.89
Ceuta to score 2+ in a row 31.5% 33.8% 2.96
Real Sociedad II to score 2+ in a row 25.4% 25.1% 3.99
Either team to score 3+ in a row 16.8% 17.8% 5.62
Ceuta to score 3+ in a row 10.1% 12.1% 8.24
Real Sociedad II to score 3+ in a row 7.0% 7.3% 13.65
Corner handicap 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Ceuta corners (+3.5) 92.7% 89.5% 1.12
Ceuta corners (+2.5) 87.7% 84.5% 1.18
Ceuta corners (+1.5) 80.5% 79.8% 1.25
Real Sociedad II corners (+3.5) 73.6% 70.8% 1.41
Real Sociedad II corners (+2.5) 63.4% 61.9% 1.62
Real Sociedad II corners (+1.5) 51.9% 52.5% 1.91
Ceuta corners (-1.5) 48.1% 47.5% 2.10
Ceuta corners (-2.5) 36.6% 38.1% 2.62
Ceuta corners (-3.5) 26.4% 29.2% 3.42
Real Sociedad II corners (-1.5) 19.5% 20.2% 4.95
Real Sociedad II corners (-2.5) 12.3% 15.5% 6.45
Real Sociedad II corners (-3.5) 7.3% 10.5% 9.57
Corner range 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
0-8 corners 50.1% 45.3% 2.21
9-11 corners 29.1% 31.2% 3.20
12+ corners 20.9% 25.6% 3.91
Corners O/U 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 12.5 corners 85.5% 83.0% 1.21
Under 11.5 corners 79.1% 76.5% 1.31
Under 10.5 corners 71.0% 72.6% 1.38
Over 7.5 corners 61.6% 63.3% 1.58
Under 9.5 corners 61.2% 63.3% 1.58
Under 8.5 corners 50.1% 53.2% 1.88
Over 8.5 corners 49.9% 46.8% 2.14
Over 9.5 corners 38.8% 36.7% 2.72
Under 7.5 corners 38.4% 36.7% 2.72
Over 10.5 corners 29.0% 27.4% 3.64
Over 11.5 corners 20.9% 23.5% 4.26
Over 12.5 corners 14.5% 17.0% 5.87
Corners Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of corners 50.0% 50.2% 1.99
Even number of corners 50.0% 49.9% 2.01
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-1 12.4% 11.6% 11.2% 1.03× 8.63
1-0 11.1% 11.6% 13.0% 0.89× 8.64
0-1 9.7% 7.3% 8.7% 0.84× 13.74
2-1 8.6% 7.3% 10.1% 0.72× 13.74
0-0 7.7% 7.3% 9.1% 0.80× 13.74
1-2 7.5% 7.3% 7.0% 1.03× 13.75
2-0 7.3% 7.3% 6.4% 1.14× 13.75
0-2 5.5% 7.3% 2.9% 2.47× 13.75
2-2 5.0% 7.3% 5.7% 1.28× 13.76
3-1 3.9% 1.8% 4.5% 0.40× 55.41
1-3 2.9% 1.8% 3.6% 0.51× 55.44
3-0 3.3% 1.8% 3.0% 0.59× 55.43
0-3 2.2% 1.8% 1.3% 1.43× 55.45
2-3 2.0% 1.8% 2.3% 0.78× 55.46
3-2 2.3% 1.8% 2.8% 0.64× 55.45
4-1 1.3% 1.8% 1.9% 0.95× 55.48
Any other score 1.9% 1.8% 2.7% 0.66× 55.46
0-4 0.6% 1.8% 0.7% 2.45× 55.49
1-4 0.9% 1.8% 0.8% 2.14× 55.49
2-4 0.6% 1.8% 0.7% 2.45× 55.49
3-3 0.9% 1.8% 0.7% 2.45× 55.49
3-4 0.3% 1.8% 0.2% 8.58× 55.50
4-0 1.1% 1.8% 1.2% 1.56× 55.48
4-2 0.8% 1.8% 1.2% 1.56× 55.49
4-3 0.3% 1.8% 0.3% 5.72× 55.50
4-4 0.1% 1.8% 0.2% 8.58× 55.51
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Ceuta leading at HT (DNB) 56.6% 56.7% 1.77
Real Sociedad II leading at HT (DNB) 43.4% 43.3% 2.31
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Ceuta or Real Sociedad II (12) 73.9% 72.4% 73.4% 0.99× 1.38
Ceuta or draw (1X) 67.1% 70.9% 72.0% 0.99× 1.41
Real Sociedad II or draw (X2) 59.0% 56.2% 54.5% 1.03× 1.78
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Ceuta or draw at HT 76.1% 78.7% 1.27
Real Sociedad II or draw at HT 68.9% 66.3% 1.51
Ceuta or Real Sociedad II at HT 54.9% 52.1% 1.92
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Ceuta or draw (1UP) 67.1% 75.0% 1.33
Real Sociedad II or draw (1UP) 59.0% 64.0% 1.56
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Ceuta or draw in 2nd half 70.3% 72.4% 1.38
Real Sociedad II or draw in 2nd half 66.6% 66.2% 1.51
Ceuta or Real Sociedad II in 2nd half 63.1% 62.5% 1.60
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half drawn 65.6% 66.0% 1.52
Neither half drawn 34.4% 34.0% 2.94
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Ceuta (DNB) 55.5% 63.0% 61.9% 1.02× 1.59
Real Sociedad II (DNB) 44.5% 37.0% 38.1% 0.97× 2.70
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Ceuta to score first 49.3% 46.3% 2.16
Real Sociedad II to score first 43.0% 41.4% 2.41
No goal scored 7.7% 6.3% 15.97
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams to score 51.0% 52.8% 54.0% 0.98× 1.89
Not both teams to score 49.0% 47.2% 46.0% 1.03× 2.12
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both score & under 2.5 41.2% 42.2% 39.8% 1.06× 2.37
Both score & over 2.5 38.6% 37.5% 42.9% 0.87× 2.67
Both score & under 2.5 12.4% 11.7% 11.2% 1.04× 8.53
Not both score & over 2.5 7.8% 8.7% 6.3% 1.38× 11.47
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 87.1% 85.5% 85.6% 1.00× 1.17
Both teams to score 2+ 12.9% 14.5% 14.4% 1.00× 6.92
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 72.9% 70.4% 1.42
Both teams to score in 2nd half 27.1% 29.6% 3.38
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 60.9% 59.4% 1.68
Both score 2nd half only 22.6% 24.4% 4.10
Both score 1st half only 12.0% 11.6% 8.66
Both score in both halves 4.5% 4.8% 20.70
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 83.5% 83.2% 1.20
Both teams to score by HT 16.5% 16.8% 5.96
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A goal in each half 50.1% 54.6% 1.83
A half without a goal 49.9% 45.4% 2.20
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-3 goals 46.7% 45.9% 41.4% 1.11× 2.18
0-1 goals 28.4% 27.7% 30.7% 0.90× 3.61
4-6 goals 23.4% 22.8% 26.6% 0.86× 4.38
7+ goals 1.5% 1.9% 1.6% 1.23× 51.73
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Real Sociedad II to score exactly 1 36.3% 34.6% 36.9% 0.94× 2.89
Real Sociedad II to score exactly 0 30.8% 33.2% 32.7% 1.02× 3.01
Real Sociedad II to score exactly 2 21.4% 23.9% 19.9% 1.21× 4.18
Real Sociedad II to score 3+ 11.6% 13.4% 10.8% 1.24× 7.48
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Ceuta to score exactly 1 35.0% 30.6% 35.6% 0.86× 3.27
Ceuta to score exactly 0 25.9% 27.0% 22.5% 1.20× 3.70
Ceuta to score exactly 2 23.6% 23.0% 25.0% 0.92× 4.35
Ceuta to score 3+ 15.5% 18.4% 17.1% 1.08× 5.42
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw at HT 45.1% 47.9% 2.09
Ceuta leading at HT 31.1% 33.7% 2.97
Real Sociedad II leading at HT 23.9% 21.3% 4.69
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Ceuta -1: 2 59.0% 56.2% 1.78
Ceuta -1: X 22.2% 23.9% 4.18
Ceuta -1: 1 18.8% 19.0% 5.27
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Real Sociedad II (0:1) 59.0% 55.5% 54.5% 1.02× 1.80
Draw (0:1) 22.2% 24.4% 26.1% 0.94× 4.10
Ceuta (0:1) 18.8% 18.3% 19.5% 0.94× 5.46
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Real Sociedad II (0:2) 81.2% 83.5% 80.5% 1.04× 1.20
Draw (0:2) 12.0% 11.7% 12.0% 0.98× 8.54
Ceuta (0:2) 6.8% 7.2% 7.7% 0.93× 13.96
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Real Sociedad II (0:3) 93.2% 92.6% 92.3% 1.00× 1.08
Draw (0:3) 4.8% 2.4% 5.4% 0.44× 42.55
Ceuta (0:3) 2.0% 2.3% 2.4% 0.96× 43.16
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Real Sociedad II (0:4) 98.0% 98.1% 97.6% 1.01× 1.02
Draw (0:4) 1.5% 1.2% 2.1% 0.59× 80.57
Ceuta (0:4) 0.5% 1.2% 0.4% 2.93× 81.10
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Ceuta (1:0) 67.1% 70.2% 72.0% 0.98× 1.42
Draw (1:0) 19.4% 16.4% 18.0% 0.91× 6.09
Real Sociedad II (1:0) 13.4% 11.8% 10.2% 1.16× 8.47
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Ceuta (2:0) 86.6% 89.2% 89.8% 0.99× 1.12
Draw (2:0) 9.1% 6.6% 7.0% 0.94× 15.05
Real Sociedad II (2:0) 4.3% 2.7% 3.3% 0.84× 36.76
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 47.2% 48.7% 2.05
1st half highest scoring 27.2% 26.1% 3.83
Halves equal 25.7% 26.1% 3.83
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Ceuta to concede 69.2% 67.0% 67.3% 1.00× 1.49
Ceuta clean sheet 30.8% 33.0% 32.7% 1.01× 3.03
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Ceuta clean sheet in 1st half 62.4% 63.4% 1.58
Ceuta to concede in 1st half 37.6% 36.6% 2.73
Home corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Ceuta over 2.5 corners 83.4% 81.0% 1.24
Ceuta under 6.5 corners 72.5% 71.8% 1.39
Ceuta over 3.5 corners 69.7% 66.7% 1.50
Ceuta under 5.5 corners 60.2% 62.2% 1.61
Ceuta over 4.5 corners 54.4% 52.6% 1.90
Ceuta under 4.5 corners 45.6% 47.4% 2.11
Ceuta over 5.5 corners 39.8% 37.8% 2.65
Ceuta under 3.5 corners 30.3% 33.3% 3.01
Ceuta over 6.5 corners 27.5% 28.2% 3.55
Ceuta under 2.5 corners 16.6% 19.0% 5.26
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Ceuta under 3.5 goals 95.2% 97.7% 93.7% 1.04× 1.02
Ceuta under 2.5 goals 84.5% 82.5% 82.9% 1.00× 1.21
Ceuta over 0.5 goals 74.1% 72.8% 77.5% 0.94× 1.37
Ceuta under 1.5 goals 60.9% 62.6% 58.0% 1.08× 1.60
Ceuta over 1.5 goals 39.1% 37.4% 42.0% 0.89× 2.67
Ceuta under 0.5 goals 25.9% 27.2% 22.5% 1.21× 3.68
Ceuta over 2.5 goals 15.5% 17.5% 17.1% 1.02× 5.71
Ceuta over 3.5 goals 4.8% 2.3% 6.3% 0.37× 43.17
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Ceuta under 1.5 in 1st half 88.4% 87.8% 1.14
Ceuta under 0.5 in 1st half 56.0% 60.0% 1.67
Ceuta over 0.5 in 1st half 44.0% 40.0% 2.50
Ceuta over 1.5 in 1st half 11.6% 12.2% 8.23
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Real Sociedad II (home no bet) 55.7% 54.2% 51.3% 1.06× 1.85
Draw (home no bet) 44.3% 45.8% 48.7% 0.94× 2.18
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Ceuta even goals 53.4% 50.3% 51.8% 0.97× 1.99
Ceuta odd goals 46.6% 49.7% 48.2% 1.03× 2.01
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 0-0 34.9% 30.6% 3.27
HT 1-0 20.3% 22.6% 4.43
HT 0-1 16.5% 18.9% 5.30
HT 1-1 9.5% 7.7% 12.97
HT 2-0 5.9% 7.7% 13.02
HT 0-2 3.9% 2.5% 39.78
Any other HT score 3.3% 2.5% 39.81
HT 2-1 2.8% 2.5% 39.84
HT 1-2 2.3% 2.5% 39.87
HT 2-2 0.7% 2.5% 39.96
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Ceuta at HT / Ceuta at FT 23.7% 21.5% 4.66
Real Sociedad II at HT / Real Sociedad II at FT 17.2% 16.8% 5.96
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 16.3% 16.8% 5.97
Draw at HT / Ceuta at FT 15.2% 16.7% 5.97
Draw at HT / Real Sociedad II at FT 13.5% 12.0% 8.35
Ceuta at HT / Draw at FT 5.2% 6.6% 15.27
Real Sociedad II at HT / Draw at FT 4.6% 3.4% 29.32
Ceuta at HT / Real Sociedad II at FT 2.1% 3.4% 29.42
Real Sociedad II at HT / Ceuta at FT 2.1% 3.4% 29.42
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Ceuta to score last 49.3% 49.2% 2.03
Real Sociedad II to score last 43.0% 40.4% 2.48
No goal scored 7.7% 6.3% 15.97
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 92.3% 93.7% 1.07
Ceuta to lead by 1 at any time 56.3% 59.6% 1.68
Real Sociedad II to lead by 1 at any time 49.1% 46.2% 2.17
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 42.9% 42.1% 2.38
Ceuta to lead by 2 at any time 24.4% 19.8% 5.04
Real Sociedad II to lead by 2 at any time 18.6% 17.7% 5.66
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 14.1% 11.4% 8.81
Ceuta to lead by 3 at any time 8.5% 7.1% 14.15
Real Sociedad II to lead by 3 at any time 5.6% 7.0% 14.26
Most corners 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Ceuta most corners 60.0% 55.6% 1.80
Real Sociedad II most corners 28.9% 31.1% 3.22
Corners level 11.1% 10.4% 9.60
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-5 goals 87.9% 87.9% 85.8% 1.02× 1.14
1-4 goals 81.0% 81.5% 78.0% 1.04× 1.23
2-6 goals 70.1% 73.6% 67.9% 1.08× 1.36
1-3 goals 67.5% 68.3% 62.9% 1.09× 1.46
2-5 goals 67.2% 68.3% 64.3% 1.06× 1.46
2-4 goals 60.3% 62.2% 56.5% 1.10× 1.61
2-3 goals 46.7% 48.0% 41.4% 1.16× 2.08
1-2 goals 46.0% 48.0% 41.9% 1.15× 2.08
3-6 goals 44.9% 43.6% 47.6% 0.92× 2.29
3-5 goals 42.0% 43.6% 44.0% 0.99× 2.29
3-4 goals 35.1% 38.8% 36.2% 1.07× 2.58
4-6 goals 23.4% 24.7% 26.6% 0.93× 4.04
4-5 goals 20.5% 24.7% 23.0% 1.07× 4.05
5-6 goals 9.8% 8.9% 11.5% 0.78× 11.26
7+ goals 1.5% 2.0% 1.6% 1.28× 49.71
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Ceuta never behind 43.2% 50.8% 1.97
Real Sociedad II never behind 36.1% 45.3% 2.21
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even number of goals 49.7% 50.1% 48.4% 1.04× 1.99
Odd number of goals 50.3% 49.9% 51.6% 0.97× 2.01
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 56.0% 55.3% 1.81
Odd goals in 1st half 44.0% 44.7% 2.24
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 52.4% 51.7% 1.94
Odd goals in 2nd half 47.6% 48.3% 2.07
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 5.5 goals 95.6% 95.6% 94.9% 1.01× 1.05
Over 0.5 goals 92.3% 92.9% 90.9% 1.02× 1.08
Under 4.5 goals 88.7% 88.8% 87.1% 1.02× 1.13
Under 3.5 goals 75.1% 78.2% 72.0% 1.09× 1.28
Over 1.5 goals 71.6% 72.4% 69.3% 1.04× 1.38
Under 2.5 goals 53.6% 53.6% 50.9% 1.05× 1.87
Over 2.5 goals 46.4% 46.4% 49.1% 0.95× 2.15
Under 1.5 goals 28.4% 27.6% 30.7% 0.90× 3.62
Over 3.5 goals 24.9% 21.8% 28.0% 0.78× 4.59
Over 4.5 goals 11.3% 11.2% 12.9% 0.87× 8.92
Under 0.5 goals 7.7% 7.1% 9.1% 0.77× 14.17
Over 5.5 goals 4.4% 4.4% 5.1% 0.85× 22.80
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 98.5% 97.2% 98.4% 0.99× 1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 95.3% 97.2% 94.4% 1.03× 1.03
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 87.0% 88.1% 84.8% 1.04× 1.14
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 68.3% 68.1% 64.5% 1.06× 1.47
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 62.0% 62.4% 61.5% 1.01× 1.60
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 38.0% 37.6% 38.5% 0.98× 2.66
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 31.7% 31.9% 35.5% 0.90× 3.13
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 13.0% 11.9% 15.2% 0.78× 8.39
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 4.7% 2.8% 5.6% 0.50× 35.72
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 1.5% 2.8% 1.6% 1.69× 36.22
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half 91.0% 92.2% 1.09
Under 1.5 in 1st half 71.7% 72.4% 1.38
Over 0.5 in 1st half 65.1% 68.5% 1.46
Under 0.5 in 1st half 34.9% 31.5% 3.18
Over 1.5 in 1st half 28.3% 27.6% 3.63
Over 2.5 in 1st half 9.0% 7.8% 12.78
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 81.5% 82.0% 1.22
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 77.3% 80.3% 1.25
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 56.7% 54.2% 1.85
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 43.3% 45.8% 2.18
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 22.7% 19.7% 5.06
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 18.5% 18.0% 5.57
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Real Sociedad II not to score in both halves 80.9% 81.5% 1.23
Ceuta not to score in both halves 76.4% 78.1% 1.28
Ceuta to score in both halves 23.6% 22.0% 4.56
Real Sociedad II to score in both halves 19.1% 18.5% 5.39
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams score 51.0% 54.6% 54.0% 1.01× 1.83
Only Ceuta scores 23.1% 22.9% 23.6% 0.97× 4.37
Only Real Sociedad II scores 18.2% 16.4% 13.4% 1.22× 6.09
Neither team scores 7.7% 6.7% 9.1% 0.73× 15.02
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 2 goals 25.2% 24.7% 20.4% 1.21× 4.05
Exactly 3 goals 21.5% 21.5% 21.1% 1.02× 4.64
Exactly 1 goals 20.8% 21.5% 21.6% 1.00× 4.64
Exactly 4 goals 13.6% 12.4% 15.2% 0.81× 8.08
Exactly 0 goals 7.7% 7.6% 9.1% 0.83× 13.13
Exactly 5 goals 6.9% 7.6% 7.9% 0.97× 13.14
6 or more goals 4.4% 4.4% 5.1% 0.85× 22.85
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half 43.3% 46.4% 2.16
1 goal in 2nd half 33.9% 33.2% 3.01
No goals in 2nd half 22.7% 18.5% 5.40
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Real Sociedad II not to win both halves 93.0% 93.4% 1.07
Ceuta not to win both halves 89.7% 87.6% 1.14
Ceuta to win both halves 10.3% 12.4% 8.09
Real Sociedad II to win both halves 7.0% 6.6% 15.11
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Ceuta to win either half 54.2% 54.0% 1.85
Real Sociedad II to win neither half 53.5% 54.0% 1.85
Real Sociedad II to win either half 46.5% 46.0% 2.17
Ceuta to win neither half 45.8% 46.0% 2.17
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Real Sociedad II not to win to nil 81.8% 83.2% 86.6% 0.96× 1.20
Ceuta not to win to nil 76.9% 77.1% 76.4% 1.01× 1.30
Ceuta to win to nil 23.1% 22.9% 23.6% 0.97× 4.37
Real Sociedad II to win to nil 18.2% 16.8% 13.4% 1.25× 5.96
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw 26.1% 28.0% 26.6% 1.05× 3.57
Ceuta by 1 22.2% 23.7% 26.1% 0.91× 4.21
Real Sociedad II by 1 19.4% 17.0% 18.0% 0.95× 5.88
Ceuta by 2 12.0% 11.9% 12.0% 0.99× 8.44
Real Sociedad II by 2 9.1% 7.1% 7.0% 1.01× 14.07
Ceuta by 3+ 6.8% 7.1% 7.7% 0.92× 14.12
Real Sociedad II by 3+ 4.3% 2.8% 3.3% 0.87× 35.16
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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