Ceuta v Real Valladolid — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 20 September 2026 · ESP-La Liga 2 · 2627
La Liga
results-only Prediction generated
AI prediction
ai-blend v1.0 dailyCeuta win
36.4%
model 36.9%
Draw
27.1%
model 26.8%
Real Valladolid win
36.4%
model 36.4%
Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (567 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.
Top 5 scorelines
- 1-1 12.7%
- 1-0 11.0%
- 0-1 10.9%
- 0-0 8.4%
- 2-1 8.0%
Goals
| Over 2.5 | 44.1% | Under 2.5 | 55.9% |
| BTTS yes | 49.4% | BTTS no | 50.6% |
| Ceuta 1+ | 70.7% | Ceuta 2+ | 34.7% |
| Real Valladolid 1+ | 70.4% | Real Valladolid 2+ | 34.3% |
Expected goals 1.23 – 1.22. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.
Footing
AI confidence
56/100
Data quality
75/100
Model agreement
95%
★ Best pick
Real Valladolid (+0.5)
Asian handicap · usually 55%
62.8% fair odds 1.59
moderate signal · 11565 settled matches behind the band
★ Most likely to land
Ceuta (2:0)
Handicap 2:0 · usually 90%
83.6% fair odds 1.20
moderate signal · 4395 settled matches behind the band
Positive factors
- Ceuta carry the stronger rating, 1448 Elo against 1342.
Risk factors
- No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.
Why the model thinks this
The price
Ceuta have an estimated 36.4% win probability, against 36.4% for Real Valladolid and 27.1% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.23 for Ceuta and 1.22 for Real Valladolid.
Why Ceuta
Ceuta carry the stronger rating, 1448 Elo against 1342.
Why the draw is live
The draw sits at 27.1%. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.23 to 1.22. Draws run at 27% in this competition.
Why Real Valladolid can win
Nothing in the data singles out Real Valladolid.
Key players
Real Valladolid's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Marcos de Sousa (0.24), Raul Moro (0.23), Mamadou Sylla (0.22).
Availability
No lineup on record for Ceuta, so availability is unknown. 1 of Real Valladolid's top three contributors did not start their last match.
The matchup, as far as the data reaches
Ceuta: 49% possession, 8.0 shots a match, 13.8 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Real Valladolid: 55% possession, 12.0 shots a match, 12.6 faced, 0.20 xG a match from set pieces.
Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-08 10:52 · team_stats 2026-09-08 06:03 · availability 2026-09-08 11:54 · prediction 2026-09-08 11:44 ·
Ceuta are the model's most likely outcome at 36.4%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 12.7%. Confidence 56/100, data quality 75/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.
Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Real Valladolid are finishing below their chances — 3.5 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 5.7 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
LLLLLLLLLL last 10
scored 8
from 11.5 xG
conceded 27
from 21.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend | 1.23–1.22 | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| dc-xg | 1.16–1.35 | 1-1 12% | 46% | 50% |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it.
Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits
from what that selection normally does in this league.
To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the
Radar.
All markets
Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.
1X2 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ceuta to win | 36.9% | 37.5% | 45.5% | 0.82× | 2.67 |
| Real Valladolid to win | 36.4% | 37.5% | 28.0% | 1.34× | 2.67 |
| Draw | 26.8% | 27.3% | 26.6% | 1.03× | 3.66 |
1X2 & GG/NG 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ceuta & not both score | 21.2% | 21.5% | 23.6% | 0.91× | 4.65 |
| Real Valladolid & not both score | 20.9% | 21.5% | 13.4% | 1.60× | 4.65 |
| Draw & both teams score | 18.4% | 18.2% | 17.5% | 1.04× | 5.49 |
| Real Valladolid & both teams score | 15.4% | 18.2% | 14.7% | 1.24× | 5.49 |
| Ceuta & both teams score | 15.6% | 18.2% | 22.0% | 0.83× | 5.49 |
| Draw & not both score | 8.4% | 7.7% | 9.1% | 0.84× | 13.04 |
1X2 & Over/Under 18
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ceuta & under 3.5 | 28.1% | 26.5% | 32.2% | 0.82× | 3.78 |
| Real Valladolid & under 3.5 | 27.8% | 26.5% | 19.6% | 1.35× | 3.78 |
| Real Valladolid & over 1.5 | 25.5% | 26.5% | 19.4% | 1.36× | 3.78 |
| Ceuta & over 1.5 | 25.9% | 26.5% | 32.6% | 0.81× | 3.78 |
| Draw & under 2.5 | 21.1% | 21.8% | 20.3% | 1.08× | 4.59 |
| Draw & under 3.5 | 21.1% | 21.8% | 20.3% | 1.08× | 4.59 |
| Real Valladolid & over 2.5 | 19.1% | 17.7% | 16.6% | 1.07× | 5.66 |
| Ceuta & over 2.5 | 19.4% | 17.7% | 26.3% | 0.67× | 5.66 |
| Real Valladolid & under 2.5 | 17.3% | 17.7% | 11.6% | 1.53× | 5.66 |
| Ceuta & under 2.5 | 17.5% | 17.7% | 19.3% | 0.91× | 5.66 |
| Draw & over 1.5 | 18.4% | 17.7% | 17.5% | 1.01× | 5.66 |
| Real Valladolid & under 1.5 | 10.9% | 12.5% | 8.7% | 1.43× | 8.03 |
| Ceuta & under 1.5 | 11.0% | 12.5% | 13.0% | 0.96× | 8.03 |
| Real Valladolid & over 3.5 | 8.6% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 0.89× | 13.17 |
| Ceuta & over 3.5 | 8.7% | 7.6% | 13.3% | 0.57× | 13.17 |
| Draw & under 1.5 | 8.4% | 7.6% | 9.1% | 0.83× | 13.17 |
| Draw & over 2.5 | 5.7% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 1.18× | 13.17 |
| Draw & over 3.5 | 5.7% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 1.18× | 13.17 |
1X2 1UP 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ceuta (1UP) | 52.2% | 53.2% | — | — | 1.88 |
| Real Valladolid (1UP) | 51.8% | 53.2% | — | — | 1.88 |
1X2 2UP 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ceuta (2UP) | 36.9% | 37.5% | — | — | 2.66 |
| Real Valladolid (2UP) | 36.4% | 37.5% | — | — | 2.67 |
2nd half 1X2 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2nd half drawn | 37.6% | 36.9% | — | — | 2.71 |
| Real Valladolid to win 2nd half | 32.1% | 32.4% | — | — | 3.09 |
| Ceuta to win 2nd half | 30.3% | 32.4% | — | — | 3.09 |
Asian handicap 8
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Valladolid (+2.5) | 94.8% | 92.3% | 92.3% | 1.00× | 1.08 |
| Real Valladolid (+1.5) | 84.3% | 83.1% | 80.5% | 1.03× | 1.20 |
| Ceuta (+0.5) | 63.6% | 62.8% | 72.0% | 0.87× | 1.59 |
| Real Valladolid (+0.5) | 63.1% | 62.8% | 54.5% | 1.15× | 1.59 |
| Ceuta (-0.5) | 36.9% | 37.2% | 45.5% | 0.82× | 2.69 |
| Real Valladolid (-0.5) | 36.4% | 37.2% | 28.0% | 1.33× | 2.69 |
| Ceuta (-1.5) | 15.7% | 16.9% | 19.5% | 0.86× | 5.92 |
| Ceuta (-2.5) | 5.2% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 1.01× | 12.97 |
Away clean sheet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Valladolid to concede | 70.7% | 75.5% | 77.5% | 0.97× | 1.32 |
| Real Valladolid clean sheet | 29.3% | 24.5% | 22.5% | 1.09× | 4.09 |
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Valladolid clean sheet in 1st half | 59.0% | 58.1% | — | — | 1.72 |
| Real Valladolid to concede in 1st half | 41.0% | 41.9% | — | — | 2.39 |
Away corners O/U 10
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Valladolid under 6.5 corners | 82.9% | 81.4% | — | — | 1.23 |
| Real Valladolid over 2.5 corners | 75.2% | 75.9% | — | — | 1.32 |
| Real Valladolid under 5.5 corners | 72.4% | 71.5% | — | — | 1.40 |
| Real Valladolid under 4.5 corners | 58.4% | 57.1% | — | — | 1.75 |
| Real Valladolid over 3.5 corners | 58.3% | 57.1% | — | — | 1.75 |
| Real Valladolid under 3.5 corners | 41.8% | 42.9% | — | — | 2.33 |
| Real Valladolid over 4.5 corners | 41.6% | 42.9% | — | — | 2.33 |
| Real Valladolid over 5.5 corners | 27.6% | 28.5% | — | — | 3.51 |
| Real Valladolid under 2.5 corners | 24.8% | 24.1% | — | — | 4.15 |
| Real Valladolid over 6.5 corners | 17.1% | 18.6% | — | — | 5.39 |
Away goals O/U 8
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Valladolid under 3.5 goals | 96.5% | 97.3% | 97.0% | 1.00× | 1.03 |
| Real Valladolid under 2.5 goals | 87.6% | 87.2% | 89.2% | 0.98× | 1.15 |
| Real Valladolid over 0.5 goals | 70.4% | 71.3% | 67.3% | 1.06× | 1.40 |
| Real Valladolid under 1.5 goals | 65.7% | 67.7% | 69.4% | 0.97× | 1.48 |
| Real Valladolid over 1.5 goals | 34.3% | 32.3% | 30.6% | 1.06× | 3.09 |
| Real Valladolid under 0.5 goals | 29.6% | 28.7% | 32.7% | 0.88× | 3.48 |
| Real Valladolid over 2.5 goals | 12.4% | 12.8% | 10.8% | 1.18× | 7.81 |
| Real Valladolid over 3.5 goals | 3.5% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 0.88× | 37.45 |
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Valladolid under 1.5 in 1st half | 91.4% | 93.6% | — | — | 1.07 |
| Real Valladolid under 0.5 in 1st half | 61.5% | 62.4% | — | — | 1.60 |
| Real Valladolid over 0.5 in 1st half | 38.5% | 37.6% | — | — | 2.66 |
| Real Valladolid over 1.5 in 1st half | 8.6% | 6.4% | — | — | 15.61 |
Away no bet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ceuta (away no bet) | 57.9% | 58.5% | 63.1% | 0.93× | 1.71 |
| Draw (away no bet) | 42.1% | 41.5% | 36.9% | 1.13× | 2.41 |
Away Odd/Even 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Valladolid even goals | 54.4% | 53.5% | 54.7% | 0.98× | 1.87 |
| Real Valladolid odd goals | 45.6% | 46.5% | 45.3% | 1.03× | 2.15 |
Both halves O1.5 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both halves over 1.5 | 88.7% | 86.9% | — | — | 1.15 |
| Both halves over 1.5 goals | 11.3% | 13.1% | — | — | 7.64 |
Both halves U1.5 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both halves under 1.5 | 57.3% | 60.3% | — | — | 1.66 |
| Both halves under 1.5 goals | 42.7% | 39.7% | — | — | 2.52 |
Consecutive goals 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Either team to score 2+ in a row | 49.7% | 47.7% | — | — | 2.10 |
| Ceuta to score 2+ in a row | 27.5% | 27.1% | — | — | 3.69 |
| Real Valladolid to score 2+ in a row | 27.1% | 27.1% | — | — | 3.69 |
| Either team to score 3+ in a row | 15.7% | 17.3% | — | — | 5.77 |
| Ceuta to score 3+ in a row | 8.0% | 7.8% | — | — | 12.77 |
| Real Valladolid to score 3+ in a row | 7.8% | 7.8% | — | — | 12.78 |
Corner handicap 12
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Valladolid corners (+3.5) | 88.6% | 84.5% | — | — | 1.18 |
| Ceuta corners (+3.5) | 83.3% | 79.7% | — | — | 1.25 |
| Real Valladolid corners (+2.5) | 81.6% | 79.7% | — | — | 1.25 |
| Ceuta corners (+2.5) | 74.7% | 70.7% | — | — | 1.41 |
| Real Valladolid corners (+1.5) | 72.3% | 70.7% | — | — | 1.41 |
| Ceuta corners (+1.5) | 63.9% | 61.9% | — | — | 1.62 |
| Real Valladolid corners (-1.5) | 36.1% | 38.1% | — | — | 2.63 |
| Ceuta corners (-1.5) | 27.7% | 29.3% | — | — | 3.41 |
| Real Valladolid corners (-2.5) | 25.3% | 29.3% | — | — | 3.42 |
| Ceuta corners (-2.5) | 18.4% | 20.3% | — | — | 4.93 |
| Real Valladolid corners (-3.5) | 16.7% | 20.3% | — | — | 4.93 |
| Ceuta corners (-3.5) | 11.4% | 15.5% | — | — | 6.46 |
Corner range 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-8 corners | 57.4% | 46.6% | — | — | 2.15 |
| 9-11 corners | 27.0% | 31.2% | — | — | 3.20 |
| 12+ corners | 15.6% | 22.6% | — | — | 4.42 |
Corners O/U 12
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 12.5 corners | 89.7% | 83.0% | — | — | 1.21 |
| Under 11.5 corners | 84.4% | 80.8% | — | — | 1.24 |
| Under 10.5 corners | 77.3% | 76.5% | — | — | 1.31 |
| Under 9.5 corners | 68.2% | 67.7% | — | — | 1.48 |
| Under 8.5 corners | 57.4% | 57.8% | — | — | 1.73 |
| Over 7.5 corners | 54.6% | 53.3% | — | — | 1.88 |
| Under 7.5 corners | 45.4% | 46.7% | — | — | 2.14 |
| Over 8.5 corners | 42.6% | 42.2% | — | — | 2.37 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 31.8% | 32.3% | — | — | 3.10 |
| Over 10.5 corners | 22.7% | 23.5% | — | — | 4.26 |
| Over 11.5 corners | 15.6% | 19.2% | — | — | 5.20 |
| Over 12.5 corners | 10.3% | 17.0% | — | — | 5.88 |
Corners Odd/Even 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odd number of corners | 50.0% | 50.2% | — | — | 1.99 |
| Even number of corners | 50.0% | 49.8% | — | — | 2.01 |
Correct score 26
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 12.7% | 11.2% | 11.2% | 1.00× | 8.90 |
| 0-1 | 10.9% | 11.2% | 8.7% | 1.29× | 8.90 |
| 1-0 | 11.0% | 11.2% | 13.0% | 0.86× | 8.90 |
| 0-0 | 8.4% | 7.4% | 9.1% | 0.81× | 13.48 |
| 0-2 | 6.4% | 7.4% | 2.9% | 2.52× | 13.49 |
| 1-2 | 7.9% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 1.05× | 13.48 |
| 2-0 | 6.5% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 1.16× | 13.49 |
| 2-1 | 8.0% | 7.4% | 10.1% | 0.74× | 13.48 |
| 0-3 | 2.6% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 1.37× | 58.10 |
| 0-4 | 0.8% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 2.34× | 58.11 |
| 1-3 | 3.2% | 1.7% | 3.6% | 0.48× | 58.10 |
| 1-4 | 1.0% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 2.05× | 58.11 |
| 2-2 | 4.8% | 1.7% | 5.7% | 0.30× | 58.10 |
| 2-3 | 2.0% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 0.74× | 58.11 |
| 2-4 | 0.6% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 2.34× | 58.11 |
| 3-0 | 2.7% | 1.7% | 3.0% | 0.57× | 58.10 |
| 3-1 | 3.3% | 1.7% | 4.5% | 0.38× | 58.10 |
| 3-2 | 2.0% | 1.7% | 2.8% | 0.61× | 58.11 |
| 3-3 | 0.8% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 2.34× | 58.11 |
| 3-4 | 0.2% | 1.7% | 0.2% | 8.19× | 58.11 |
| 4-0 | 0.8% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 1.49× | 58.11 |
| 4-1 | 1.0% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 0.91× | 58.11 |
| 4-2 | 0.6% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 1.49× | 58.11 |
| 4-3 | 0.2% | 1.7% | 0.3% | 5.46× | 58.11 |
| 4-4 | 0.1% | 1.7% | 0.2% | 8.19× | 58.11 |
| Any other score | 1.7% | 1.7% | 2.7% | 0.63× | 58.11 |
DNB half time 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ceuta leading at HT (DNB) | 52.6% | 55.9% | — | — | 1.79 |
| Real Valladolid leading at HT (DNB) | 47.5% | 44.1% | — | — | 2.27 |
Double chance 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ceuta or Real Valladolid (12) | 73.2% | 72.7% | 73.4% | 0.99× | 1.38 |
| Ceuta or draw (1X) | 63.6% | 62.5% | 72.0% | 0.87× | 1.60 |
| Real Valladolid or draw (X2) | 63.1% | 62.5% | 54.5% | 1.15× | 1.60 |
Double chance 1HT 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ceuta or draw at HT | 74.4% | 71.3% | — | — | 1.40 |
| Real Valladolid or draw at HT | 71.7% | 71.2% | — | — | 1.41 |
| Ceuta or Real Valladolid at HT | 53.9% | 54.1% | — | — | 1.85 |
Double chance 1UP 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ceuta or draw (1UP) | 63.6% | 69.8% | — | — | 1.43 |
| Real Valladolid or draw (1UP) | 63.1% | 69.8% | — | — | 1.43 |
Double chance 2HT 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Valladolid or draw in 2nd half | 69.7% | 67.6% | — | — | 1.48 |
| Ceuta or draw in 2nd half | 67.9% | 67.6% | — | — | 1.48 |
| Ceuta or Real Valladolid in 2nd half | 62.4% | 63.1% | — | — | 1.58 |
Draw either half 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A half drawn | 66.7% | 65.4% | — | — | 1.53 |
| Neither half drawn | 33.3% | 34.6% | — | — | 2.89 |
Draw no bet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ceuta (DNB) | 50.3% | 51.5% | 61.9% | 0.83× | 1.94 |
| Real Valladolid (DNB) | 49.7% | 48.5% | 38.1% | 1.27× | 2.06 |
First goal 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ceuta to score first | 46.0% | 46.0% | — | — | 2.17 |
| Real Valladolid to score first | 45.6% | 46.0% | — | — | 2.17 |
| No goal scored | 8.4% | 6.3% | — | — | 15.83 |
GG/NG 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both teams to score | 50.6% | 51.8% | 46.0% | 1.13× | 1.93 |
| Both teams to score | 49.4% | 48.2% | 54.0% | 0.89× | 2.08 |
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both score & under 2.5 | 43.2% | 41.6% | 39.8% | 1.05× | 2.40 |
| Both score & over 2.5 | 36.8% | 38.0% | 42.9% | 0.89× | 2.63 |
| Both score & under 2.5 | 12.7% | 11.9% | 11.2% | 1.06× | 8.41 |
| Not both score & over 2.5 | 7.4% | 8.5% | 6.3% | 1.34× | 11.82 |
GG/NG 2+ 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both teams to score 2+ | 88.1% | 85.9% | 85.6% | 1.00× | 1.16 |
| Both teams to score 2+ | 11.9% | 14.1% | 14.4% | 0.98× | 7.11 |
GG/NG 2nd half 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both to score in 2nd half | 74.0% | 71.5% | — | — | 1.40 |
| Both teams to score in 2nd half | 26.0% | 28.5% | — | — | 3.51 |
GG/NG by half 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neither half both score | 62.4% | 61.3% | — | — | 1.63 |
| Both score 2nd half only | 21.8% | 23.3% | — | — | 4.29 |
| Both score 1st half only | 11.6% | 11.9% | — | — | 8.41 |
| Both score in both halves | 4.1% | 4.6% | — | — | 21.67 |
GG/NG half time 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both to score by HT | 84.3% | 82.7% | — | — | 1.21 |
| Both teams to score by HT | 15.7% | 17.3% | — | — | 5.79 |
Goal in both halves 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A half without a goal | 51.7% | 52.5% | — | — | 1.90 |
| A goal in each half | 48.3% | 47.5% | — | — | 2.11 |
Goal range 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2-3 goals | 46.8% | 46.6% | 41.4% | 1.13× | 2.15 |
| 0-1 goals | 30.2% | 30.8% | 30.7% | 1.01× | 3.24 |
| 4-6 goals | 21.8% | 23.3% | 26.6% | 0.88× | 4.29 |
| 7+ goals | 1.3% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 1.26× | 50.28 |
Goals away 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Valladolid to score exactly 1 | 36.0% | 36.0% | 36.9% | 0.98× | 2.78 |
| Real Valladolid to score exactly 0 | 29.6% | 27.4% | 32.7% | 0.84× | 3.65 |
| Real Valladolid to score exactly 2 | 21.9% | 23.1% | 19.9% | 1.16× | 4.32 |
| Real Valladolid to score 3+ | 12.4% | 12.9% | 10.8% | 1.19× | 7.75 |
Goals home 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ceuta to score exactly 1 | 36.0% | 36.5% | 35.6% | 1.03× | 2.74 |
| Ceuta to score exactly 0 | 29.3% | 26.4% | 22.5% | 1.17× | 3.79 |
| Ceuta to score exactly 2 | 22.1% | 22.9% | 25.0% | 0.92× | 4.37 |
| Ceuta to score 3+ | 12.6% | 13.2% | 17.1% | 0.77× | 7.58 |
Half time 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draw at HT | 46.1% | 45.9% | — | — | 2.18 |
| Ceuta leading at HT | 28.3% | 28.8% | — | — | 3.47 |
| Real Valladolid leading at HT | 25.6% | 28.7% | — | — | 3.48 |
Handicap 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ceuta -1: 2 | 63.1% | 61.9% | — | — | 1.62 |
| Ceuta -1: X | 21.2% | 23.2% | — | — | 4.30 |
| Ceuta -1: 1 | 15.7% | 17.8% | — | — | 5.61 |
Handicap 0:1 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Valladolid (0:1) | 63.1% | 60.3% | 54.5% | 1.11× | 1.66 |
| Draw (0:1) | 21.2% | 23.5% | 26.1% | 0.90× | 4.25 |
| Ceuta (0:1) | 15.7% | 18.2% | 19.5% | 0.93× | 5.51 |
Handicap 0:2 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Valladolid (0:2) | 84.3% | 83.0% | 80.5% | 1.03× | 1.20 |
| Draw (0:2) | 10.5% | 11.4% | 12.0% | 0.95× | 8.79 |
| Ceuta (0:2) | 5.2% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 1.01× | 12.96 |
Handicap 0:3 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Valladolid (0:3) | 94.8% | 92.6% | 92.3% | 1.00× | 1.08 |
| Draw (0:3) | 3.8% | 2.6% | 5.4% | 0.48× | 38.95 |
| Ceuta (0:3) | 1.4% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 1.06× | 38.99 |
Handicap 0:4 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Valladolid (0:4) | 98.6% | 97.7% | 97.6% | 1.00× | 1.02 |
| Draw (0:4) | 1.1% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 0.67× | 70.58 |
| Ceuta (0:4) | 0.3% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 3.37× | 70.61 |
Handicap 1:0 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ceuta (1:0) | 63.6% | 64.5% | 72.0% | 0.90× | 1.55 |
| Draw (1:0) | 21.0% | 21.9% | 18.0% | 1.22× | 4.56 |
| Real Valladolid (1:0) | 15.4% | 17.5% | 10.2% | 1.72× | 5.70 |
Handicap 2:0 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ceuta (2:0) | 84.6% | 83.6% | 89.8% | 0.93× | 1.20 |
| Draw (2:0) | 10.3% | 11.5% | 7.0% | 1.64× | 8.68 |
| Real Valladolid (2:0) | 5.1% | 6.7% | 3.3% | 2.05× | 14.99 |
Highest scoring half 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2nd half highest scoring | 46.8% | 48.6% | — | — | 2.06 |
| 1st half highest scoring | 27.0% | 26.2% | — | — | 3.82 |
| Halves equal | 26.2% | 26.2% | — | — | 3.82 |
Home clean sheet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ceuta to concede | 70.4% | 72.0% | 67.3% | 1.07× | 1.39 |
| Ceuta clean sheet | 29.6% | 28.0% | 32.7% | 0.86× | 3.57 |
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ceuta clean sheet in 1st half | 61.5% | 62.3% | — | — | 1.61 |
| Ceuta to concede in 1st half | 38.5% | 37.7% | — | — | 2.65 |
Home corners O/U 10
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ceuta under 6.5 corners | 87.2% | 86.3% | — | — | 1.16 |
| Ceuta under 5.5 corners | 78.1% | 76.6% | — | — | 1.31 |
| Ceuta over 2.5 corners | 70.1% | 71.9% | — | — | 1.39 |
| Ceuta under 4.5 corners | 65.0% | 62.3% | — | — | 1.61 |
| Ceuta over 3.5 corners | 51.8% | 52.8% | — | — | 1.90 |
| Ceuta under 3.5 corners | 48.2% | 47.2% | — | — | 2.12 |
| Ceuta over 4.5 corners | 35.0% | 37.7% | — | — | 2.65 |
| Ceuta under 2.5 corners | 29.9% | 28.1% | — | — | 3.56 |
| Ceuta over 5.5 corners | 21.9% | 23.4% | — | — | 4.27 |
| Ceuta over 6.5 corners | 12.8% | 13.7% | — | — | 7.29 |
Home goals O/U 8
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ceuta under 3.5 goals | 96.4% | 96.6% | 93.7% | 1.03× | 1.04 |
| Ceuta under 2.5 goals | 87.4% | 87.5% | 82.9% | 1.06× | 1.14 |
| Ceuta over 0.5 goals | 70.7% | 73.2% | 77.5% | 0.94× | 1.37 |
| Ceuta under 1.5 goals | 65.3% | 68.4% | 58.0% | 1.18× | 1.46 |
| Ceuta over 1.5 goals | 34.7% | 31.6% | 42.0% | 0.75× | 3.17 |
| Ceuta under 0.5 goals | 29.3% | 26.8% | 22.5% | 1.19× | 3.73 |
| Ceuta over 2.5 goals | 12.6% | 12.5% | 17.1% | 0.73× | 7.98 |
| Ceuta over 3.5 goals | 3.6% | 3.4% | 6.3% | 0.55× | 29.06 |
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ceuta under 1.5 in 1st half | 90.1% | 93.8% | — | — | 1.07 |
| Ceuta under 0.5 in 1st half | 59.0% | 58.2% | — | — | 1.72 |
| Ceuta over 0.5 in 1st half | 41.0% | 41.8% | — | — | 2.39 |
| Ceuta over 1.5 in 1st half | 9.9% | 6.2% | — | — | 16.01 |
Home no bet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Valladolid (home no bet) | 57.6% | 56.1% | 51.3% | 1.09× | 1.78 |
| Draw (home no bet) | 42.4% | 43.9% | 48.7% | 0.90× | 2.28 |
Home Odd/Even 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ceuta even goals | 54.3% | 50.9% | 51.8% | 0.98× | 1.96 |
| Ceuta odd goals | 45.7% | 49.1% | 48.2% | 1.02× | 2.04 |
HT correct score 10
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HT 0-0 | 36.2% | 35.4% | — | — | 2.83 |
| HT 1-0 | 19.2% | 20.1% | — | — | 4.98 |
| HT 0-1 | 17.7% | 20.0% | — | — | 4.99 |
| HT 1-1 | 9.3% | 8.0% | — | — | 12.44 |
| HT 2-0 | 5.0% | 8.0% | — | — | 12.49 |
| HT 0-2 | 4.3% | 2.5% | — | — | 40.35 |
| Any other HT score | 3.0% | 2.5% | — | — | 40.41 |
| HT 2-1 | 2.5% | 2.5% | — | — | 40.44 |
| HT 1-2 | 2.3% | 2.5% | — | — | 40.45 |
| HT 2-2 | 0.6% | 2.5% | — | — | 40.52 |
HT/FT 9
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ceuta at HT / Ceuta at FT | 20.9% | 20.5% | — | — | 4.88 |
| Real Valladolid at HT / Real Valladolid at FT | 19.2% | 17.2% | — | — | 5.81 |
| Draw at HT / Draw at FT | 17.0% | 17.2% | — | — | 5.82 |
| Draw at HT / Real Valladolid at FT | 15.0% | 12.2% | — | — | 8.19 |
| Draw at HT / Ceuta at FT | 14.1% | 12.2% | — | — | 8.20 |
| Ceuta at HT / Draw at FT | 5.2% | 6.4% | — | — | 15.59 |
| Real Valladolid at HT / Draw at FT | 4.6% | 3.7% | — | — | 27.27 |
| Ceuta at HT / Real Valladolid at FT | 2.2% | 3.7% | — | — | 27.33 |
| Real Valladolid at HT / Ceuta at FT | 1.8% | 3.7% | — | — | 27.34 |
Last goal 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ceuta to score last | 46.0% | 46.2% | — | — | 2.16 |
| Real Valladolid to score last | 45.6% | 46.2% | — | — | 2.16 |
| No goal scored | 8.4% | 6.3% | — | — | 15.83 |
Lead at any time 9
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Either team to lead by 1 at any time | 91.6% | 93.6% | — | — | 1.07 |
| Ceuta to lead by 1 at any time | 52.2% | 50.8% | — | — | 1.97 |
| Real Valladolid to lead by 1 at any time | 51.8% | 50.8% | — | — | 1.97 |
| Either team to lead by 2 at any time | 41.3% | 41.2% | — | — | 2.43 |
| Ceuta to lead by 2 at any time | 20.9% | 21.3% | — | — | 4.69 |
| Real Valladolid to lead by 2 at any time | 20.5% | 21.3% | — | — | 4.70 |
| Either team to lead by 3 at any time | 13.1% | 11.0% | — | — | 9.10 |
| Ceuta to lead by 3 at any time | 6.6% | 7.6% | — | — | 13.19 |
| Real Valladolid to lead by 3 at any time | 6.5% | 7.6% | — | — | 13.20 |
Most corners 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Valladolid most corners | 48.3% | 46.9% | — | — | 2.13 |
| Ceuta most corners | 39.2% | 39.4% | — | — | 2.54 |
| Corners level | 12.5% | 10.4% | — | — | 9.62 |
Multi goal 15
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-5 goals | 87.8% | 87.2% | 85.8% | 1.02× | 1.15 |
| 1-4 goals | 81.5% | 82.0% | 78.0% | 1.05× | 1.22 |
| 1-3 goals | 68.6% | 68.2% | 62.9% | 1.08× | 1.47 |
| 2-6 goals | 68.5% | 68.2% | 67.9% | 1.00× | 1.47 |
| 2-5 goals | 66.0% | 68.2% | 64.3% | 1.06× | 1.47 |
| 2-4 goals | 59.7% | 58.8% | 56.5% | 1.04× | 1.70 |
| 1-2 goals | 47.5% | 47.4% | 41.9% | 1.13× | 2.11 |
| 2-3 goals | 46.8% | 47.4% | 41.4% | 1.14× | 2.11 |
| 3-6 goals | 42.9% | 43.7% | 47.6% | 0.92× | 2.29 |
| 3-5 goals | 40.3% | 43.7% | 44.0% | 0.99× | 2.29 |
| 3-4 goals | 34.0% | 34.6% | 36.2% | 0.95× | 2.89 |
| 4-6 goals | 21.8% | 23.8% | 26.6% | 0.90× | 4.20 |
| 4-5 goals | 19.2% | 18.8% | 23.0% | 0.82× | 5.31 |
| 5-6 goals | 8.9% | 8.9% | 11.5% | 0.78× | 11.18 |
| 7+ goals | 1.3% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 1.42× | 44.61 |
Never down 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ceuta never behind | 39.8% | 47.5% | — | — | 2.11 |
| Real Valladolid never behind | 39.4% | 47.5% | — | — | 2.11 |
Odd/Even 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odd number of goals | 50.2% | 50.0% | 51.6% | 0.97× | 2.00 |
| Even number of goals | 49.8% | 50.0% | 48.4% | 1.03× | 2.00 |
Odd/Even 1HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Even goals in 1st half | 56.5% | 55.1% | — | — | 1.82 |
| Odd goals in 1st half | 43.5% | 44.9% | — | — | 2.23 |
Odd/Even 2HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Even goals in 2nd half | 52.7% | 51.5% | — | — | 1.94 |
| Odd goals in 2nd half | 47.3% | 48.5% | — | — | 2.06 |
Over/Under 12
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 5.5 goals | 96.2% | 96.0% | 94.9% | 1.01× | 1.04 |
| Over 0.5 goals | 91.6% | 92.3% | 90.9% | 1.02× | 1.08 |
| Under 4.5 goals | 89.9% | 87.7% | 87.1% | 1.01× | 1.14 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 77.0% | 77.0% | 72.0% | 1.07× | 1.30 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 69.8% | 67.5% | 69.3% | 0.97× | 1.48 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 55.8% | 57.5% | 50.9% | 1.13× | 1.74 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44.2% | 42.5% | 49.1% | 0.87× | 2.35 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 30.2% | 32.5% | 30.7% | 1.06× | 3.08 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23.0% | 23.0% | 28.0% | 0.82× | 4.35 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 10.1% | 12.3% | 12.9% | 0.95× | 8.14 |
| Under 0.5 goals | 8.4% | 7.7% | 9.1% | 0.85× | 12.95 |
| Over 5.5 goals | 3.8% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 0.77× | 25.25 |
Over/Under (whole line) 10
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 6 (void on exactly 6) | 98.7% | 97.3% | 98.4% | 0.99× | 1.03 |
| Under 5 (void on exactly 5) | 95.9% | 97.3% | 94.4% | 1.03× | 1.03 |
| Under 4 (void on exactly 4) | 88.4% | 86.7% | 84.8% | 1.02× | 1.15 |
| Under 3 (void on exactly 3) | 70.8% | 71.7% | 64.5% | 1.11× | 1.40 |
| Over 2 (void on exactly 2) | 59.4% | 58.0% | 61.5% | 0.94× | 1.73 |
| Under 2 (void on exactly 2) | 40.6% | 42.0% | 38.5% | 1.09× | 2.38 |
| Over 3 (void on exactly 3) | 29.2% | 28.3% | 35.5% | 0.80× | 3.53 |
| Over 4 (void on exactly 4) | 11.6% | 13.3% | 15.2% | 0.88× | 7.49 |
| Over 5 (void on exactly 5) | 4.1% | 2.7% | 5.6% | 0.49× | 36.67 |
| Over 6 (void on exactly 6) | 1.3% | 2.7% | 1.6% | 1.67× | 36.70 |
Over/Under 1HT 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 2.5 in 1st half | 91.7% | 91.6% | — | — | 1.09 |
| Under 1.5 in 1st half | 73.1% | 73.4% | — | — | 1.36 |
| Over 0.5 in 1st half | 63.8% | 64.3% | — | — | 1.56 |
| Under 0.5 in 1st half | 36.2% | 35.7% | — | — | 2.80 |
| Over 1.5 in 1st half | 26.9% | 26.6% | — | — | 3.76 |
| Over 2.5 in 1st half | 8.3% | 8.4% | — | — | 11.97 |
Over/Under 2HT 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 2.5 in 2nd half | 82.6% | 82.6% | — | — | 1.21 |
| Over 0.5 in 2nd half | 76.2% | 79.8% | — | — | 1.25 |
| Under 1.5 in 2nd half | 58.3% | 56.5% | — | — | 1.77 |
| Over 1.5 in 2nd half | 41.7% | 43.5% | — | — | 2.30 |
| Under 0.5 in 2nd half | 23.8% | 20.2% | — | — | 4.95 |
| Over 2.5 in 2nd half | 17.4% | 17.4% | — | — | 5.76 |
Score both halves 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Valladolid not to score in both halves | 80.0% | 81.2% | — | — | 1.23 |
| Ceuta not to score in both halves | 79.4% | 76.4% | — | — | 1.31 |
| Ceuta to score in both halves | 20.6% | 23.6% | — | — | 4.23 |
| Real Valladolid to score in both halves | 20.0% | 18.8% | — | — | 5.32 |
Teams to score 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams score | 49.4% | 50.6% | 54.0% | 0.94× | 1.97 |
| Only Ceuta scores | 21.2% | 21.3% | 23.6% | 0.90× | 4.71 |
| Only Real Valladolid scores | 20.9% | 21.3% | 13.4% | 1.58× | 4.71 |
| Neither team scores | 8.4% | 7.2% | 9.1% | 0.78× | 13.96 |
Total goals 7
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exactly 2 goals | 25.6% | 25.0% | 20.4% | 1.22× | 4.01 |
| Exactly 1 goals | 21.8% | 22.3% | 21.6% | 1.03× | 4.48 |
| Exactly 3 goals | 21.1% | 22.3% | 21.1% | 1.06× | 4.49 |
| Exactly 4 goals | 12.9% | 12.3% | 15.2% | 0.81× | 8.13 |
| Exactly 0 goals | 8.4% | 7.8% | 9.1% | 0.85× | 12.88 |
| Exactly 5 goals | 6.3% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 0.99× | 12.89 |
| 6 or more goals | 3.8% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 0.79× | 24.66 |
Total goals 2nd half 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2+ goals in 2nd half | 41.7% | 43.4% | — | — | 2.30 |
| 1 goal in 2nd half | 34.4% | 34.4% | — | — | 2.91 |
| No goals in 2nd half | 23.8% | 20.2% | — | — | 4.95 |
Win both halves 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Valladolid not to win both halves | 91.8% | 92.2% | — | — | 1.08 |
| Ceuta not to win both halves | 91.5% | 92.2% | — | — | 1.08 |
| Ceuta to win both halves | 8.5% | 7.8% | — | — | 12.87 |
| Real Valladolid to win both halves | 8.2% | 7.8% | — | — | 12.88 |
Win either half 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Valladolid to win neither half | 50.5% | 51.0% | — | — | 1.96 |
| Ceuta to win either half | 50.1% | 51.0% | — | — | 1.96 |
| Ceuta to win neither half | 49.9% | 49.0% | — | — | 2.04 |
| Real Valladolid to win either half | 49.5% | 49.0% | — | — | 2.04 |
Win to nil 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Valladolid not to win to nil | 79.1% | 78.7% | 86.6% | 0.91× | 1.27 |
| Ceuta not to win to nil | 78.8% | 78.7% | 76.4% | 1.03× | 1.27 |
| Ceuta to win to nil | 21.2% | 21.3% | 23.6% | 0.90× | 4.70 |
| Real Valladolid to win to nil | 20.9% | 21.3% | 13.4% | 1.58× | 4.70 |
Winning margin 7
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draw | 26.8% | 27.4% | 26.6% | 1.03× | 3.65 |
| Ceuta by 1 | 21.2% | 23.3% | 26.1% | 0.89× | 4.29 |
| Real Valladolid by 1 | 21.0% | 23.3% | 18.0% | 1.30× | 4.29 |
| Ceuta by 2 | 10.5% | 11.8% | 12.0% | 0.99× | 8.46 |
| Real Valladolid by 2 | 10.3% | 11.8% | 7.0% | 1.68× | 8.46 |
| Ceuta by 3+ | 5.2% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 0.95× | 13.66 |
| Real Valladolid by 3+ | 5.1% | 7.3% | 3.3% | 2.25× | 13.66 |