CF Montréal v Charlotte FC — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Wednesday 9 September 2026 · USA-MLS · 2627

USA-MLS results-only Prediction generated 9 Sep 2026, 09:54 UTC

CF Montréal

1–2

23:30 UTC

Charlotte FC

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Final pre-match price, taken 9 Sep, 11:32 · 12h before kick-off

CF Montréal win

30.4%

model 32.0%

Draw

23.4%

model 24.7%

Charlotte FC win

46.2%

model 43.2%

302346

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (554 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 11.4%
1-2 9.0%
2-1 7.6%
0-1 7.3%
0-2 6.4%

Goals

Over 2.5	59.1%	Under 2.5	40.9%
BTTS yes	61.6%	BTTS no	38.4%
CF Montréal 1+	75.4%	CF Montréal 2+	40.9%
Charlotte FC 1+	81.0%	Charlotte FC 2+	49.5%

Expected goals 1.40 – 1.66. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

58/100

Data quality

75/100

Model agreement

94%

★ Best pick

Charlotte FC (+0.5)

Asian handicap · usually 55%

69.2% fair odds 1.45

moderate signal · 1062 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

CF Montréal to concede

Home clean sheet · usually 73%

84.3% fair odds 1.19

moderate signal · 270 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Charlotte FC carry the stronger rating, 1555 Elo against 1402.
Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Charlotte FC have an estimated 46.2% win probability, against 30.4% for CF Montréal and 23.4% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.40 for CF Montréal and 1.66 for Charlotte FC.

Why CF Montréal

Nothing in the data singles out CF Montréal.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 23.4%. Draws run at 25% in this competition.

Why Charlotte FC can win

Charlotte FC carry the stronger rating, 1555 Elo against 1402. Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for CF Montréal, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Charlotte FC, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

CF Montréal: 50% possession, 14.8 shots a match, 12.8 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Charlotte FC: 48% possession, 12.6 shots a match, 18.2 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. CF Montréal's shot volume meets a defence that concedes shots freely.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-09 15:30 · team_stats 2026-09-09 06:03 · availability 2026-09-09 15:32 · prediction 2026-09-09 09:54 ·

Charlotte FC are the model's most likely outcome at 46.2%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 11.4%. Confidence 58/100, data quality 75/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS	Outcome
ai-blend	322543	1.40–1.66	0%	0%	0%	Away ✓
ai-blend-oos	292448	1.41–1.85	0%	0%	0%	Away ✓
dc-xg	272449	1.30–1.80	1-1 11%	60%	61%	Away ✓
dc-xg-oos	332543	1.38–1.61	1-1 11%	57%	60%	Away ✓
deep	292546	1.34–1.73	1-1 11%	59%	61%	Away ✓

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Charlotte FC to win	46.1%	47.6%	30.0%	1.59×	2.10
CF Montréal to win	29.2%	27.7%	45.3%	0.61×	3.61
Draw	24.7%	24.6%	24.8%	0.99×	4.07

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Charlotte FC & both teams score	25.1%	25.4%	18.0%	1.41×	3.93
Charlotte FC & not both score	21.0%	21.8%	12.1%	1.80×	4.60
Draw & both teams score	19.4%	18.0%	19.2%	0.94×	5.55
CF Montréal & both teams score	16.7%	18.0%	24.4%	0.74×	5.55
CF Montréal & not both score	12.5%	13.3%	21.1%	0.63×	7.55
Draw & not both score	5.2%	8.4%	5.8%	1.45×	11.98

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Charlotte FC & over 1.5	38.7%	34.7%	23.7%	1.46×	2.88
Charlotte FC & over 2.5	31.7%	31.0%	20.5%	1.51×	3.22
Charlotte FC & under 3.5	27.8%	25.9%	18.8%	1.38×	3.85
CF Montréal & over 1.5	23.6%	21.6%	37.2%	0.58×	4.63
CF Montréal & over 2.5	19.4%	18.0%	31.0%	0.58×	5.57
CF Montréal & under 3.5	18.9%	18.0%	28.4%	0.63×	5.57
Draw & over 1.5	19.4%	18.0%	19.2%	0.94×	5.57
Charlotte FC & over 3.5	18.4%	18.0%	11.3%	1.59×	5.57
Draw & under 2.5	16.6%	18.0%	16.0%	1.12×	5.57
Draw & under 3.5	16.6%	18.0%	16.0%	1.12×	5.57
Charlotte FC & under 2.5	14.4%	12.9%	9.6%	1.34×	7.78
CF Montréal & over 3.5	10.3%	12.9%	17.0%	0.75×	7.78
CF Montréal & under 2.5	9.8%	8.0%	14.4%	0.55×	12.57
Draw & over 2.5	8.1%	8.0%	8.9%	0.89×	12.57
Draw & over 3.5	8.1%	8.0%	8.9%	0.89×	12.57
Charlotte FC & under 1.5	7.5%	8.0%	6.4%	1.24×	12.57
CF Montréal & under 1.5	5.7%	8.0%	8.2%	0.97×	12.57
Draw & under 1.5	5.2%	8.0%	5.8%	1.38×	12.57

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Charlotte FC (1UP)	63.2%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
CF Montréal (1UP)	48.8%	43.4%	—	—	2.31

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Charlotte FC (2UP)	46.1%	49.8%	—	—	2.01
CF Montréal (2UP)	29.2%	24.9%	—	—	4.01

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Charlotte FC to win 2nd half	41.1%	41.0%	—	—	2.44
2nd half drawn	32.8%	34.5%	—	—	2.90
CF Montréal to win 2nd half	26.1%	26.4%	—	—	3.79

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Charlotte FC under 1.5 in 2nd half	72.2%	75.2%	—	—	1.33
Charlotte FC over 0.5 in 2nd half	64.6%	59.2%	—	—	1.69
Charlotte FC under 0.5 in 2nd half	35.4%	40.8%	—	—	2.45
Charlotte FC over 1.5 in 2nd half	27.8%	24.8%	—	—	4.02

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
CF Montréal under 1.5 in 2nd half	82.2%	82.5%	—	—	1.21
CF Montréal over 0.5 in 2nd half	53.4%	53.3%	—	—	1.88
CF Montréal under 0.5 in 2nd half	46.6%	46.7%	—	—	2.14
CF Montréal over 1.5 in 2nd half	17.8%	17.5%	—	—	5.70

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Charlotte FC (+2.5)	95.5%	96.3%	89.4%	1.08×	1.04
Charlotte FC (+1.5)	87.0%	88.3%	76.8%	1.15×	1.13
Charlotte FC (+0.5)	70.8%	73.7%	54.7%	1.35×	1.36
CF Montréal (+0.5)	53.9%	52.1%	70.0%	0.74×	1.92
Charlotte FC (-0.5)	46.1%	47.9%	30.0%	1.60×	2.09
CF Montréal (-0.5)	29.2%	26.3%	45.3%	0.58×	3.80
CF Montréal (-1.5)	13.0%	11.7%	23.2%	0.50×	8.58
CF Montréal (-2.5)	4.5%	3.7%	10.6%	0.35×	26.77

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Charlotte FC to concede	73.8%	77.1%	82.3%	0.94×	1.30
Charlotte FC clean sheet	26.2%	22.9%	17.7%	1.29×	4.38

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Charlotte FC clean sheet in 1st half	56.2%	58.4%	—	—	1.71
Charlotte FC to concede in 1st half	43.8%	41.6%	—	—	2.41

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Charlotte FC to concede in 2nd half	53.4%	52.9%	—	—	1.89
Charlotte FC clean sheet in 2nd half	46.6%	47.1%	—	—	2.12

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Charlotte FC under 3.5 goals	90.2%	92.2%	94.0%	0.98×	1.09
Charlotte FC over 0.5 goals	82.3%	81.3%	73.3%	1.11×	1.23
Charlotte FC under 2.5 goals	75.0%	71.9%	83.3%	0.86×	1.39
Charlotte FC over 1.5 goals	51.6%	53.5%	38.8%	1.38×	1.87
Charlotte FC under 1.5 goals	48.4%	46.5%	61.2%	0.76×	2.15
Charlotte FC over 2.5 goals	25.0%	28.1%	16.7%	1.68×	3.56
Charlotte FC under 0.5 goals	17.7%	18.7%	26.7%	0.70×	5.34
Charlotte FC over 3.5 goals	9.8%	7.8%	6.0%	1.31×	12.80

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Charlotte FC under 1.5 in 1st half	84.7%	83.2%	—	—	1.20
Charlotte FC under 0.5 in 1st half	50.1%	55.6%	—	—	1.80
Charlotte FC over 0.5 in 1st half	49.9%	44.4%	—	—	2.25
Charlotte FC over 1.5 in 1st half	15.3%	16.8%	—	—	5.96

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Charlotte FC scores more in 2nd half	43.1%	43.8%	—	—	2.28
Charlotte FC scores equally in both	33.0%	34.1%	—	—	2.93
Charlotte FC scores more in 1st half	24.0%	22.4%	—	—	4.46

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
CF Montréal (away no bet)	54.2%	51.3%	64.6%	0.79×	1.95
Draw (away no bet)	45.8%	48.7%	35.4%	1.38×	2.05

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Charlotte FC even goals	51.6%	52.8%	53.6%	0.99×	1.90
Charlotte FC odd goals	48.4%	47.2%	46.4%	1.02×	2.12

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	80.6%	82.9%	—	—	1.21
Both halves over 1.5 goals	19.4%	17.1%	—	—	5.84

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	70.7%	67.2%	—	—	1.49
Both halves under 1.5 goals	29.3%	32.8%	—	—	3.05

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	61.9%	59.9%	—	—	1.67
Charlotte FC to score 2+ in a row	41.9%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
CF Montréal to score 2+ in a row	28.5%	25.1%	—	—	3.99
Either team to score 3+ in a row	23.8%	19.5%	—	—	5.13
Charlotte FC to score 3+ in a row	16.1%	16.3%	—	—	6.14
CF Montréal to score 3+ in a row	8.2%	5.7%	—	—	17.67

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	11.3%	11.4%	10.4%	1.10×	8.80
1-2	9.3%	7.4%	7.7%	0.96×	13.53
0-1	7.5%	7.4%	6.4%	1.15×	13.53
0-2	7.0%	7.4%	3.3%	2.26×	13.53
2-1	7.2%	7.4%	10.0%	0.74×	13.53
0-0	5.2%	7.4%	5.8%	1.29×	13.53
1-0	5.7%	7.4%	8.2%	0.90×	13.53
1-3	5.4%	7.4%	3.4%	2.19×	13.53
2-2	6.2%	7.4%	6.1%	1.21×	13.53
0-3	4.0%	1.7%	1.8%	0.96×	57.66
0-4	1.7%	1.7%	0.8%	2.20×	57.67
1-4	2.3%	1.7%	1.4%	1.28×	57.67
2-0	4.2%	1.7%	6.3%	0.27×	57.66
2-3	3.6%	1.7%	2.6%	0.67×	57.66
2-4	1.6%	1.7%	1.7%	1.03×	57.67
3-0	1.9%	1.7%	4.2%	0.42×	57.67
3-1	3.2%	1.7%	4.8%	0.36×	57.66
3-2	2.8%	1.7%	3.5%	0.50×	57.67
3-3	1.6%	1.7%	2.6%	0.67×	57.67
3-4	0.7%	1.7%	0.7%	2.56×	57.68
4-0	0.6%	1.7%	1.2%	1.40×	57.68
4-1	1.1%	1.7%	2.4%	0.73×	57.67
4-2	0.9%	1.7%	1.6%	1.10×	57.67
4-3	0.5%	1.7%	0.8%	2.20×	57.68
4-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.5%	3.84×	57.68
Any other score	4.3%	1.7%	4.7%	0.37×	57.66

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Charlotte FC (2nd half DNB)	61.1%	61.1%	—	—	1.64
CF Montréal (2nd half DNB)	38.9%	38.9%	—	—	2.57

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Charlotte FC leading at HT (DNB)	56.1%	58.3%	—	—	1.72
CF Montréal leading at HT (DNB)	43.9%	41.7%	—	—	2.40

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
CF Montréal or Charlotte FC (12)	75.4%	75.4%	75.2%	1.00×	1.33
Charlotte FC or draw (X2)	70.8%	72.3%	54.7%	1.32×	1.38
CF Montréal or draw (1X)	53.9%	52.5%	70.0%	0.75×	1.91

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Charlotte FC or draw at HT	74.0%	74.3%	—	—	1.35
CF Montréal or draw at HT	66.7%	66.3%	—	—	1.51
CF Montréal or Charlotte FC at HT	59.3%	57.0%	—	—	1.75

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Charlotte FC or draw (1UP)	70.8%	80.1%	—	—	1.25
CF Montréal or draw (1UP)	53.9%	59.3%	—	—	1.69

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Charlotte FC or draw in 2nd half	73.9%	73.6%	—	—	1.36
CF Montréal or Charlotte FC in 2nd half	67.2%	65.5%	—	—	1.53
CF Montréal or draw in 2nd half	58.9%	59.0%	—	—	1.70

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	59.5%	58.1%	—	—	1.72
Neither half drawn	40.5%	41.9%	—	—	2.39

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Charlotte FC (DNB)	61.2%	62.9%	39.8%	1.58×	1.59
CF Montréal (DNB)	38.8%	37.1%	60.2%	0.62×	2.70

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Charlotte FC to score first	53.4%	53.9%	—	—	1.86
CF Montréal to score first	41.3%	41.7%	—	—	2.40
No goal scored	5.2%	7.4%	—	—	13.46

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	61.3%	56.5%	61.3%	0.92×	1.77
Not both teams to score	38.7%	43.5%	38.7%	1.12×	2.30

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	49.9%	44.3%	51.1%	0.87×	2.26
Not both score & under 2.5	29.5%	33.4%	29.5%	1.13×	3.00
Both score & under 2.5	11.3%	12.3%	10.4%	1.18×	8.16
Not both score & over 2.5	9.3%	8.4%	9.2%	0.91×	11.93

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	80.1%	82.5%	79.5%	1.04×	1.21
Both teams to score 2+	19.9%	17.5%	20.5%	0.85×	5.71

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	65.3%	67.5%	—	—	1.48
Both teams to score in 2nd half	34.7%	32.5%	—	—	3.08

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	50.9%	55.8%	—	—	1.79
Both score 2nd half only	27.1%	26.6%	—	—	3.76
Both score 1st half only	14.4%	10.8%	—	—	9.29
Both score in both halves	7.5%	6.8%	—	—	14.76

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	78.1%	81.5%	—	—	1.23
Both teams to score by HT	21.9%	18.6%	—	—	5.39

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	60.2%	58.6%	—	—	1.71
A half without a goal	39.8%	41.4%	—	—	2.42

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	44.9%	41.9%	43.0%	0.98×	2.39
4-6 goals	33.1%	30.9%	33.0%	0.94×	3.24
0-1 goals	18.4%	20.2%	20.2%	1.00×	4.95
7+ goals	3.7%	1.9%	4.1%	0.46×	53.85

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Charlotte FC to score exactly 1	30.7%	33.6%	34.6%	0.97×	2.97
Charlotte FC to score exactly 2	26.5%	27.6%	22.2%	1.24×	3.62
Charlotte FC to score 3+	25.0%	27.6%	16.7%	1.65×	3.63
Charlotte FC to score exactly 0	17.7%	19.5%	26.7%	0.73×	5.12

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
CF Montréal to score exactly 1	35.1%	35.5%	31.1%	1.14×	2.82
CF Montréal to score exactly 0	26.2%	26.2%	17.7%	1.48×	3.82
CF Montréal to score exactly 2	23.5%	23.3%	26.4%	0.89×	4.28
CF Montréal to score 3+	15.2%	19.1%	25.0%	0.77×	5.22

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	40.7%	43.0%	—	—	2.33
Charlotte FC leading at HT	33.3%	33.7%	—	—	2.96
CF Montréal leading at HT	26.0%	25.7%	—	—	3.90

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Charlotte FC -1: 1	53.9%	51.9%	—	—	1.93
Charlotte FC -1: 2	25.0%	23.7%	—	—	4.23
Charlotte FC -1: X	21.2%	23.6%	—	—	4.23

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Charlotte FC (0:1)	70.8%	70.9%	54.7%	1.30×	1.41
Draw (0:1)	16.3%	17.7%	22.2%	0.80×	5.64
CF Montréal (0:1)	13.0%	13.9%	23.2%	0.60×	7.18

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Charlotte FC (0:2)	87.0%	86.9%	76.8%	1.13×	1.15
Draw (0:2)	8.5%	7.7%	12.7%	0.60×	13.00
CF Montréal (0:2)	4.5%	3.8%	10.6%	0.36×	26.40

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Charlotte FC (0:3)	95.5%	96.6%	89.4%	1.08×	1.04
Draw (0:3)	3.2%	2.4%	6.7%	0.36×	42.32
CF Montréal (0:3)	1.3%	2.4%	4.1%	0.58×	42.40

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Charlotte FC (0:4)	98.7%	98.1%	95.9%	1.02×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	1.0%	1.2%	2.0%	0.60×	81.73
CF Montréal (0:4)	0.3%	1.2%	2.1%	0.57×	81.79

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
CF Montréal (1:0)	53.9%	53.3%	70.0%	0.76×	1.88
Charlotte FC (1:0)	25.0%	21.8%	13.0%	1.68×	4.60
Draw (1:0)	21.2%	21.7%	17.1%	1.27×	4.60

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
CF Montréal (2:0)	75.0%	79.8%	87.0%	0.92×	1.25
Draw (2:0)	14.1%	10.4%	8.6%	1.22×	9.60
Charlotte FC (2:0)	10.8%	10.4%	4.5%	2.30×	9.63

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	49.5%	48.2%	—	—	2.07
1st half highest scoring	26.6%	26.5%	—	—	3.78
Halves equal	23.9%	24.1%	—	—	4.15

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
CF Montréal to concede	82.3%	80.9%	73.3%	1.10×	1.24
CF Montréal clean sheet	17.7%	19.1%	26.7%	0.72×	5.23

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
CF Montréal clean sheet in 1st half	50.1%	55.6%	—	—	1.80
CF Montréal to concede in 1st half	49.9%	44.4%	—	—	2.25

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
CF Montréal to concede in 2nd half	64.6%	59.0%	—	—	1.70
CF Montréal clean sheet in 2nd half	35.4%	41.0%	—	—	2.44

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
CF Montréal under 3.5 goals	95.3%	96.3%	90.6%	1.06×	1.04
CF Montréal under 2.5 goals	84.8%	82.0%	75.0%	1.09×	1.22
CF Montréal over 0.5 goals	73.8%	74.3%	82.3%	0.90×	1.35
CF Montréal under 1.5 goals	61.3%	63.3%	48.7%	1.30×	1.58
CF Montréal over 1.5 goals	38.7%	36.7%	51.3%	0.72×	2.72
CF Montréal under 0.5 goals	26.2%	25.7%	17.7%	1.45×	3.89
CF Montréal over 2.5 goals	15.2%	18.0%	25.0%	0.72×	5.54
CF Montréal over 3.5 goals	4.7%	3.7%	9.4%	0.40×	26.94

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
CF Montréal under 1.5 in 1st half	88.6%	89.8%	—	—	1.11
CF Montréal under 0.5 in 1st half	56.2%	58.1%	—	—	1.72
CF Montréal over 0.5 in 1st half	43.8%	41.9%	—	—	2.39
CF Montréal over 1.5 in 1st half	11.4%	10.2%	—	—	9.84

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
CF Montréal scores equally in both	39.1%	37.7%	—	—	2.65
CF Montréal scores more in 2nd half	36.2%	37.6%	—	—	2.66
CF Montréal scores more in 1st half	24.7%	21.6%	—	—	4.63

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Charlotte FC (home no bet)	65.2%	63.2%	54.7%	1.15×	1.58
Draw (home no bet)	34.8%	36.8%	45.3%	0.81×	2.72

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
CF Montréal even goals	53.4%	50.4%	51.0%	0.99×	1.98
CF Montréal odd goals	46.6%	49.6%	49.0%	1.01×	2.02

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	28.3%	28.9%	—	—	3.46
HT 0-1	19.4%	18.7%	—	—	5.35
HT 1-0	16.1%	18.6%	—	—	5.37
HT 1-1	11.3%	10.9%	—	—	9.16
HT 0-2	6.7%	7.1%	—	—	14.03
Any other HT score	5.3%	7.1%	—	—	14.05
HT 2-0	4.7%	2.3%	—	—	43.36
HT 1-2	3.9%	2.3%	—	—	43.42
HT 2-1	3.2%	2.3%	—	—	43.47
HT 2-2	1.1%	2.3%	—	—	43.62

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Charlotte FC at HT / Charlotte FC at FT	26.3%	26.9%	—	—	3.72
CF Montréal at HT / CF Montréal at FT	16.8%	16.8%	—	—	5.97
Draw at HT / Charlotte FC at FT	16.4%	16.7%	—	—	5.97
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	14.0%	12.7%	—	—	7.89
Draw at HT / CF Montréal at FT	10.3%	12.6%	—	—	7.91
CF Montréal at HT / Draw at FT	5.7%	6.0%	—	—	16.72
Charlotte FC at HT / Draw at FT	5.0%	3.5%	—	—	28.73
CF Montréal at HT / Charlotte FC at FT	3.5%	3.5%	—	—	28.79
Charlotte FC at HT / CF Montréal at FT	2.0%	3.5%	—	—	28.84

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Charlotte FC to score last	53.5%	52.0%	—	—	1.92
CF Montréal to score last	41.3%	40.0%	—	—	2.50
No goal scored	5.2%	7.4%	—	—	13.46

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	94.8%	92.7%	—	—	1.08
Charlotte FC to lead by 1 at any time	63.2%	61.4%	—	—	1.63
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	51.6%	50.8%	—	—	1.97
CF Montréal to lead by 1 at any time	48.8%	44.0%	—	—	2.27
Charlotte FC to lead by 2 at any time	32.5%	29.3%	—	—	3.41
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	19.9%	14.9%	—	—	6.70
CF Montréal to lead by 2 at any time	19.5%	14.9%	—	—	6.71
Charlotte FC to lead by 3 at any time	13.6%	10.5%	—	—	9.54
CF Montréal to lead by 3 at any time	6.3%	6.6%	—	—	15.16

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	85.7%	87.4%	83.4%	1.05×	1.14
2-6 goals	77.9%	78.5%	75.9%	1.03×	1.27
1-4 goals	75.2%	78.5%	73.2%	1.07×	1.27
2-5 goals	72.6%	72.3%	69.0%	1.05×	1.38
2-4 goals	62.0%	63.2%	58.7%	1.08×	1.58
1-3 goals	58.0%	59.3%	57.4%	1.03×	1.69
3-6 goals	55.5%	59.3%	56.3%	1.05×	1.69
3-5 goals	50.1%	53.4%	49.4%	1.08×	1.87
2-3 goals	44.9%	43.6%	43.0%	1.01×	2.29
3-4 goals	39.6%	39.3%	39.1%	1.00×	2.55
1-2 goals	35.6%	39.3%	34.2%	1.15×	2.55
4-6 goals	33.1%	35.3%	33.0%	1.07×	2.83
4-5 goals	27.7%	30.6%	26.2%	1.17×	3.27
5-6 goals	15.9%	18.8%	17.2%	1.09×	5.31
7+ goals	3.7%	2.6%	4.1%	0.63×	38.91

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Charlotte FC never behind	45.9%	56.5%	—	—	1.77
CF Montréal never behind	31.6%	35.5%	—	—	2.82

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	48.8%	51.0%	50.5%	1.01×	1.96
Even number of goals	51.2%	49.0%	49.5%	0.99×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	54.2%	51.7%	—	—	1.93
Odd goals in 1st half	45.8%	48.3%	—	—	2.07

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	51.8%	52.0%	—	—	1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half	48.2%	48.0%	—	—	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	94.8%	92.2%	94.3%	0.98×	1.08
Under 5.5 goals	90.9%	92.2%	89.1%	1.04×	1.09
Over 1.5 goals	81.6%	82.2%	79.8%	1.03×	1.22
Under 4.5 goals	80.4%	82.2%	78.8%	1.04×	1.22
Under 3.5 goals	63.2%	62.0%	63.0%	0.98×	1.61
Over 2.5 goals	59.2%	58.5%	60.2%	0.97×	1.71
Under 2.5 goals	40.8%	41.5%	39.8%	1.04×	2.41
Over 3.5 goals	36.8%	38.0%	37.0%	1.03×	2.63
Over 4.5 goals	19.6%	17.8%	21.2%	0.84×	5.60
Under 1.5 goals	18.4%	17.8%	20.2%	0.88×	5.61
Over 5.5 goals	9.1%	7.8%	10.9%	0.71×	12.83
Under 0.5 goals	5.2%	7.8%	5.8%	1.35×	12.85

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	96.1%	97.2%	95.6%	1.02×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	89.9%	86.6%	87.8%	0.99×	1.15
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	76.3%	75.9%	74.9%	1.01×	1.32
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	76.3%	75.9%	74.8%	1.01×	1.32
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	52.6%	52.4%	51.8%	1.01×	1.91
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	47.4%	47.6%	48.2%	0.99×	2.10
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	23.7%	24.1%	25.1%	0.96×	4.15
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	23.7%	24.1%	25.2%	0.96×	4.15
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	10.1%	13.4%	12.2%	1.10×	7.48
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	3.9%	2.8%	4.4%	0.65×	35.10

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	86.5%	89.0%	—	—	1.12
Over 0.5 in 1st half	71.7%	71.2%	—	—	1.40
Under 1.5 in 1st half	63.8%	63.6%	—	—	1.57
Over 1.5 in 1st half	36.2%	36.4%	—	—	2.75
Under 0.5 in 1st half	28.3%	28.8%	—	—	3.47
Over 2.5 in 1st half	13.5%	11.0%	—	—	9.06

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	83.3%	82.8%	—	—	1.21
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	73.1%	77.7%	—	—	1.29
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	53.9%	53.4%	—	—	1.87
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	46.1%	46.6%	—	—	2.15
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	26.9%	22.3%	—	—	4.49
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	16.7%	17.2%	—	—	5.81

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
CF Montréal not to score in both halves	76.6%	78.2%	—	—	1.28
Charlotte FC not to score in both halves	67.8%	70.5%	—	—	1.42
Charlotte FC to score in both halves	32.2%	29.5%	—	—	3.39
CF Montréal to score in both halves	23.4%	21.8%	—	—	4.59

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	61.3%	60.3%	61.3%	0.98×	1.66
Only Charlotte FC scores	21.0%	22.0%	12.1%	1.82×	4.55
Only CF Montréal scores	12.5%	11.1%	21.1%	0.53×	9.01
Neither team scores	5.2%	7.1%	5.8%	1.24×	14.07

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	22.5%	22.4%	19.7%	1.14×	4.46
Exactly 3 goals	22.4%	22.4%	23.3%	0.96×	4.46
Exactly 4 goals	17.2%	17.5%	15.9%	1.10×	5.70
Exactly 1 goals	13.1%	12.1%	14.5%	0.83×	8.30
Exactly 5 goals	10.5%	12.0%	10.4%	1.16×	8.30
6 or more goals	9.1%	7.8%	10.9%	0.71×	12.85
Exactly 0 goals	5.2%	7.8%	5.8%	1.35×	12.86

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 1st half	35.5%	37.1%	—	—	2.70
No goals in 1st half	28.3%	28.5%	—	—	3.50
2 goals in 1st half	22.7%	21.7%	—	—	4.61
3+ goals in 1st half	13.5%	10.9%	—	—	9.15

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	53.9%	51.5%	—	—	1.94
1 goal in 2nd half	29.4%	29.8%	—	—	3.35
No goals in 2nd half	16.7%	17.2%	—	—	5.81

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
CF Montréal not to win both halves	93.1%	94.0%	—	—	1.06
Charlotte FC not to win both halves	86.2%	87.9%	—	—	1.14
Charlotte FC to win both halves	13.8%	12.1%	—	—	8.25
CF Montréal to win both halves	6.9%	6.0%	—	—	16.63

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Charlotte FC to win either half	60.6%	65.0%	—	—	1.54
CF Montréal to win neither half	54.7%	54.9%	—	—	1.82
CF Montréal to win either half	45.3%	45.1%	—	—	2.22
Charlotte FC to win neither half	39.4%	35.0%	—	—	2.85

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
CF Montréal not to win to nil	87.5%	87.9%	78.9%	1.11×	1.14
Charlotte FC not to win to nil	79.0%	78.4%	87.9%	0.89×	1.28
Charlotte FC to win to nil	21.0%	21.6%	12.1%	1.79×	4.62
CF Montréal to win to nil	12.5%	12.1%	21.1%	0.57×	8.29

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	24.7%	24.2%	24.8%	0.97×	4.14
Charlotte FC by 1	21.2%	24.2%	17.1%	1.41×	4.14
CF Montréal by 1	16.3%	16.9%	22.2%	0.76×	5.92
Charlotte FC by 2	14.1%	11.7%	8.6%	1.37×	8.53
Charlotte FC by 3+	10.8%	11.7%	4.5%	2.60×	8.53
CF Montréal by 2	8.5%	7.3%	12.7%	0.57×	13.76
CF Montréal by 3+	4.5%	2.8%	10.6%	0.27×	35.55

Shot-level data has not been ingested for this match yet. Run python -m pipeline.ingest_understat to fill it in.