Chapecoense v Palmeiras — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 28 November 2026 · BRA-Serie A · 2627

Brasileirão results-only Prediction generated 18 Sep 2026, 10:37 UTC

Chapecoense

20:00 UTC

Palmeiras

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 24 Oct, 10:57 · 849h before kick-off

Chapecoense win

11.2%

model 14.2%

Draw

23.3%

model 21.2%

Palmeiras win

65.5%

model 64.6%

112366

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (270 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

0-2 10.7%
1-1 10.0%
1-2 9.9%
0-1 9.1%
0-3 7.7%

Goals

Over 2.5	59.2%	Under 2.5	40.8%
BTTS yes	54.0%	BTTS no	46.0%
Chapecoense 1+	60.2%	Chapecoense 2+	23.5%
Palmeiras 1+	88.3%	Palmeiras 2+	63.3%

Expected goals 0.92 – 2.15. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

78/100

Data quality

65/100

Model agreement

98%

★ Best pick

Palmeiras (-0.5)

Asian handicap · usually 24%

63.8% fair odds 1.57

strong signal · 1134 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Chapecoense not to score in both halves

Score both halves

84.3% fair odds 1.19

moderate signal · 827 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Palmeiras carry the stronger rating, 1732 Elo against 1366.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Palmeiras have an estimated 65.5% win probability, against 23.3% for the draw and 11.2% for Chapecoense. Expected goals from the ensemble are 0.92 for Chapecoense and 2.15 for Palmeiras.

Why Chapecoense

Nothing in the data singles out Chapecoense.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 23.3%. Draws run at 27% in this competition.

Why Palmeiras can win

Palmeiras carry the stronger rating, 1732 Elo against 1366.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Chapecoense, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Palmeiras, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Chapecoense: 41% possession, 14.8 shots a match, 17.8 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Palmeiras: 51% possession, 15.4 shots a match, 11.6 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-24 13:59 · team_stats 2026-10-24 06:04 · availability 2026-10-24 14:57 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Palmeiras are the model's most likely outcome at 65.5%. The likeliest scoreline is 0-2 at 10.7%. Confidence 78/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	142165	0.92–2.15	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	132166	0.89–2.20	0-2 11%	60%	53%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras to win	66.3%	64.7%	24.0%	2.70×	1.55
Draw	20.5%	24.4%	27.3%	0.89×	4.09
Chapecoense to win	13.2%	13.5%	48.9%	0.28×	7.41

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras & not both score	35.6%	33.3%	13.8%	2.41×	3.01
Palmeiras & both teams score	30.7%	29.6%	10.3%	2.87×	3.38
Draw & both teams score	15.2%	18.0%	20.8%	0.86×	5.57
Chapecoense & both teams score	7.4%	8.3%	21.0%	0.40×	12.01
Chapecoense & not both score	5.7%	8.3%	28.1%	0.30×	12.02
Draw & not both score	5.3%	8.3%	6.7%	1.25×	12.02

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras & over 1.5	57.2%	54.9%	17.1%	3.20×	1.82
Palmeiras & over 2.5	46.2%	45.0%	13.2%	3.42×	2.22
Palmeiras & under 3.5	38.0%	34.9%	18.6%	1.88×	2.87
Palmeiras & over 3.5	28.3%	26.1%	5.6%	4.69×	3.84
Palmeiras & under 2.5	20.1%	21.6%	11.0%	1.97×	4.63
Draw & over 1.5	15.2%	18.0%	20.8%	0.87×	5.56
Draw & under 2.5	15.1%	18.0%	20.2%	0.89×	5.56
Draw & under 3.5	15.1%	18.0%	20.2%	0.89×	5.56
Palmeiras & under 1.5	9.2%	7.9%	7.0%	1.13×	12.63
Chapecoense & over 1.5	9.9%	7.9%	36.7%	0.22×	12.63
Chapecoense & under 3.5	9.6%	7.9%	36.8%	0.22×	12.63
Chapecoense & over 2.5	8.1%	7.9%	27.5%	0.29×	12.63
Draw & under 1.5	5.3%	7.9%	6.7%	1.19×	12.63
Draw & over 2.5	5.5%	7.9%	7.3%	1.08×	12.63
Draw & over 3.5	5.5%	7.9%	7.3%	1.08×	12.63
Chapecoense & under 2.5	5.0%	7.9%	21.6%	0.37×	12.63
Chapecoense & under 1.5	3.2%	4.8%	12.4%	0.39×	20.82
Chapecoense & over 3.5	3.6%	4.8%	12.2%	0.39×	20.82

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras (1UP)	77.6%	78.8%	—	—	1.27
Chapecoense (1UP)	31.3%	32.7%	—	—	3.05

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras (2UP)	66.3%	68.0%	—	—	1.47
Chapecoense (2UP)	13.2%	14.1%	—	—	7.07

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras to win 2nd half	56.6%	61.6%	—	—	1.63
2nd half drawn	29.3%	25.9%	—	—	3.86
Chapecoense to win 2nd half	14.0%	11.5%	—	—	8.72

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras over 0.5 in 2nd half	73.3%	75.4%	—	—	1.33
Palmeiras under 1.5 in 2nd half	62.0%	60.2%	—	—	1.66
Palmeiras over 1.5 in 2nd half	38.0%	39.8%	—	—	2.51
Palmeiras under 0.5 in 2nd half	26.7%	24.6%	—	—	4.07

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chapecoense under 1.5 in 2nd half	90.7%	93.6%	—	—	1.07
Chapecoense under 0.5 in 2nd half	60.1%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Chapecoense over 0.5 in 2nd half	39.9%	36.8%	—	—	2.72
Chapecoense over 1.5 in 2nd half	9.3%	6.4%	—	—	15.66

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras (+2.5)	98.9%	96.3%	90.8%	1.06×	1.04
Palmeiras (+1.5)	95.6%	96.3%	76.8%	1.25×	1.04
Palmeiras (+0.5)	86.8%	88.5%	51.1%	1.73×	1.13
Palmeiras (-0.5)	66.3%	68.7%	24.0%	2.86×	1.46
Chapecoense (+0.5)	33.7%	31.3%	76.0%	0.41×	3.19
Chapecoense (-0.5)	13.2%	11.5%	48.9%	0.24×	8.66
Chapecoense (-1.5)	4.4%	3.7%	23.2%	0.16×	27.03
Chapecoense (-2.5)	1.1%	3.7%	9.2%	0.40×	27.24

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras to concede	59.1%	62.5%	79.7%	0.78×	1.60
Palmeiras clean sheet	40.9%	37.5%	20.3%	1.84×	2.67

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras clean sheet in 1st half	68.1%	70.9%	—	—	1.41
Palmeiras to concede in 1st half	31.9%	29.1%	—	—	3.44

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras clean sheet in 2nd half	60.1%	61.6%	—	—	1.62
Palmeiras to concede in 2nd half	39.9%	38.4%	—	—	2.61

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras over 2.5 corners	86.5%	85.2%	—	—	1.17
Palmeiras over 3.5 corners	75.9%	76.0%	—	—	1.32
Palmeiras over 4.5 corners	63.7%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Palmeiras under 6.5 corners	60.1%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Palmeiras over 5.5 corners	51.4%	53.0%	—	—	1.89
Palmeiras under 5.5 corners	48.6%	47.0%	—	—	2.13
Palmeiras over 6.5 corners	40.0%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Palmeiras under 4.5 corners	36.3%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Palmeiras under 3.5 corners	24.1%	24.0%	—	—	4.17
Palmeiras under 2.5 corners	13.5%	14.8%	—	—	6.77

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras over 0.5 goals	88.9%	87.8%	65.4%	1.34×	1.14
Palmeiras under 3.5 goals	81.9%	81.5%	97.9%	0.83×	1.23
Palmeiras over 1.5 goals	64.6%	63.2%	28.1%	2.25×	1.58
Palmeiras under 2.5 goals	62.2%	63.2%	90.8%	0.70×	1.58
Palmeiras over 2.5 goals	37.8%	36.8%	9.2%	4.00×	2.72
Palmeiras under 1.5 goals	35.4%	36.8%	71.9%	0.51×	2.72
Palmeiras over 3.5 goals	18.1%	18.5%	2.1%	8.99×	5.39
Palmeiras under 0.5 goals	11.1%	12.2%	34.6%	0.35×	8.21

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras under 1.5 in 1st half	78.0%	75.3%	—	—	1.33
Palmeiras over 0.5 in 1st half	58.6%	62.0%	—	—	1.61
Palmeiras under 0.5 in 1st half	41.4%	38.0%	—	—	2.63
Palmeiras over 1.5 in 1st half	22.0%	24.7%	—	—	4.05

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras scores more in 2nd half	46.9%	47.8%	—	—	2.09
Palmeiras scores equally in both	28.2%	26.3%	—	—	3.81
Palmeiras scores more in 1st half	24.9%	22.2%	—	—	4.51

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw (away no bet)	60.9%	61.9%	35.8%	1.73×	1.62
Chapecoense (away no bet)	39.1%	38.1%	64.2%	0.59×	2.62

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras even goals	50.6%	52.6%	54.9%	0.96×	1.90
Palmeiras odd goals	49.4%	47.4%	45.1%	1.05×	2.11

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	80.3%	82.8%	—	—	1.21
Both halves over 1.5 goals	19.7%	17.2%	—	—	5.82

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	71.4%	67.3%	—	—	1.49
Both halves under 1.5 goals	28.6%	32.7%	—	—	3.06

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	65.9%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
Palmeiras to score 2+ in a row	57.5%	55.2%	—	—	1.81
Either team to score 3+ in a row	31.2%	29.1%	—	—	3.43
Palmeiras to score 3+ in a row	28.8%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
Chapecoense to score 2+ in a row	14.4%	12.1%	—	—	8.27
Chapecoense to score 3+ in a row	2.7%	2.6%	—	—	39.08

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras corners (+3.5)	85.4%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Palmeiras corners (+2.5)	79.6%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
Palmeiras corners (+1.5)	72.3%	70.7%	—	—	1.41
Chapecoense corners (+3.5)	71.6%	70.7%	—	—	1.41
Chapecoense corners (+2.5)	63.5%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Chapecoense corners (+1.5)	54.6%	52.4%	—	—	1.91
Palmeiras corners (-1.5)	45.4%	47.6%	—	—	2.10
Palmeiras corners (-2.5)	36.5%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Palmeiras corners (-3.5)	28.4%	29.3%	—	—	3.42
Chapecoense corners (-1.5)	27.7%	29.3%	—	—	3.42
Chapecoense corners (-2.5)	20.4%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
Chapecoense corners (-3.5)	14.6%	15.5%	—	—	6.44

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
12+ corners	42.5%	38.4%	—	—	2.61
0-8 corners	30.8%	33.2%	—	—	3.01
9-11 corners	26.7%	31.2%	—	—	3.21

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 7.5 corners	77.5%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Over 8.5 corners	69.2%	67.8%	—	—	1.47
Under 12.5 corners	65.5%	67.8%	—	—	1.48
Over 9.5 corners	60.3%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Under 11.5 corners	57.5%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Over 10.5 corners	51.2%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Under 10.5 corners	48.8%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Over 11.5 corners	42.5%	42.1%	—	—	2.38
Under 9.5 corners	39.7%	36.8%	—	—	2.72
Over 12.5 corners	34.5%	32.2%	—	—	3.11
Under 8.5 corners	30.8%	32.2%	—	—	3.11
Under 7.5 corners	22.5%	23.4%	—	—	4.27

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.1%	—	—	2.00
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.9%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-2	11.0%	11.5%	4.1%	2.78×	8.72
1-2	9.8%	7.4%	6.2%	1.20×	13.50
0-1	9.2%	7.4%	7.0%	1.06×	13.51
1-1	9.7%	7.4%	13.7%	0.54×	13.50
1-3	7.2%	7.4%	2.1%	3.59×	13.51
Any other score	7.4%	7.4%	2.5%	2.92×	13.51
0-3	8.1%	7.4%	1.7%	4.24×	13.51
0-0	5.3%	7.4%	6.7%	1.11×	13.51
1-4	4.0%	1.7%	0.3%	5.40×	58.30
2-0	1.8%	1.7%	9.4%	0.18×	58.31
2-1	4.0%	1.7%	10.8%	0.16×	58.30
2-2	4.4%	1.7%	5.6%	0.31×	58.29
2-3	3.2%	1.7%	1.7%	0.98×	58.30
2-4	1.8%	1.7%	0.3%	5.40×	58.31
3-0	0.5%	1.7%	4.8%	0.36×	58.32
3-1	1.2%	1.7%	4.0%	0.43×	58.31
3-2	1.3%	1.7%	2.9%	0.60×	58.31
3-3	1.0%	1.7%	1.9%	0.90×	58.31
3-4	0.5%	1.7%	0.2%	10.80×	58.32
4-0	0.1%	1.7%	1.1%	1.54×	58.32
4-1	0.3%	1.7%	2.1%	0.83×	58.32
4-2	0.3%	1.7%	1.0%	1.80×	58.32
4-3	0.2%	1.7%	0.3%	5.40×	58.32
4-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.2%	10.80×	58.32
0-4	4.4%	1.7%	1.1%	1.54×	58.29
1-0	3.2%	1.7%	12.4%	0.14×	58.30

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras (2nd half DNB)	80.1%	81.6%	—	—	1.23
Chapecoense (2nd half DNB)	19.9%	18.4%	—	—	5.43

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras leading at HT (DNB)	75.0%	74.2%	—	—	1.35
Chapecoense leading at HT (DNB)	25.0%	25.8%	—	—	3.87

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras or draw (X2)	86.8%	86.5%	51.1%	1.69×	1.16
Chapecoense or Palmeiras (12)	79.5%	75.6%	72.7%	1.04×	1.32
Chapecoense or draw (1X)	33.7%	35.3%	76.0%	0.46×	2.84

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras or draw at HT	84.7%	84.4%	—	—	1.19
Chapecoense or Palmeiras at HT	61.1%	61.4%	—	—	1.63
Chapecoense or draw at HT	54.2%	47.9%	—	—	2.09

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras or draw (1UP)	86.8%	91.9%	—	—	1.09
Chapecoense or draw (1UP)	33.7%	39.2%	—	—	2.55

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras or draw in 2nd half	86.0%	88.5%	—	—	1.13
Chapecoense or Palmeiras in 2nd half	70.7%	74.1%	—	—	1.35
Chapecoense or draw in 2nd half	43.4%	38.4%	—	—	2.60

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	55.9%	58.4%	—	—	1.71
Neither half drawn	44.1%	41.6%	—	—	2.40

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras (DNB)	83.4%	80.3%	32.9%	2.44×	1.25
Chapecoense (DNB)	16.6%	19.7%	67.1%	0.29×	5.08

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras to score first	67.3%	69.4%	—	—	1.44
Chapecoense to score first	27.3%	27.9%	—	—	3.59
No goal scored	5.3%	7.4%	—	—	13.54

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	53.4%	51.3%	51.7%	0.99×	1.95
Not both teams to score	46.6%	48.7%	48.3%	1.01×	2.05

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	43.7%	41.6%	38.3%	1.09×	2.40
Not both score & under 2.5	30.5%	34.5%	38.9%	0.89×	2.90
Not both score & over 2.5	16.1%	21.5%	9.5%	2.26×	4.65
Both score & under 2.5	9.7%	8.3%	13.7%	0.61×	12.06

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	85.5%	85.6%	87.1%	0.98×	1.17
Both teams to score 2+	14.6%	14.4%	12.9%	1.12×	6.94

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	70.5%	73.6%	—	—	1.36
Both teams to score in 2nd half	29.5%	26.4%	—	—	3.78

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	57.1%	59.9%	—	—	1.67
Both score 2nd half only	24.1%	21.4%	—	—	4.68
Both score 1st half only	13.4%	10.8%	—	—	9.30
Both score in both halves	5.5%	6.8%	—	—	14.79

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	81.2%	83.2%	—	—	1.20
Both teams to score by HT	18.8%	16.8%	—	—	5.96

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	60.7%	59.6%	—	—	1.68
A half without a goal	39.3%	40.4%	—	—	2.48

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	44.9%	42.1%	49.7%	0.85×	2.37
4-6 goals	33.6%	30.7%	24.3%	1.27×	3.25
0-1 goals	17.7%	20.2%	25.7%	0.79×	4.94
7+ goals	3.8%	1.8%	0.6%	2.91×	54.12

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras to score 3+	37.8%	35.9%	9.2%	3.90×	2.78
Palmeiras to score exactly 2	26.8%	27.4%	19.0%	1.44×	3.65
Palmeiras to score exactly 1	24.4%	22.3%	37.5%	0.60×	4.48
Palmeiras to score exactly 0	11.1%	12.9%	34.6%	0.37×	7.77

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chapecoense to score exactly 1	36.6%	35.6%	34.3%	1.04×	2.81
Chapecoense to score exactly 0	40.9%	35.2%	20.3%	1.73×	2.84
Chapecoense to score exactly 2	16.3%	18.8%	27.1%	0.69×	5.33
Chapecoense to score 3+	6.2%	10.3%	18.6%	0.55×	9.73

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras leading at HT	45.8%	52.1%	—	—	1.92
Draw at HT	38.9%	38.6%	—	—	2.59
Chapecoense leading at HT	15.3%	15.6%	—	—	6.39

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras -1: 2	43.5%	42.8%	—	—	2.34
Palmeiras -1: 1	33.7%	30.1%	—	—	3.32
Palmeiras -1: X	22.8%	23.5%	—	—	4.26

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras (0:1)	86.8%	89.3%	51.1%	1.75×	1.12
Draw (0:1)	8.8%	9.3%	25.9%	0.36×	10.79
Chapecoense (0:1)	4.4%	5.7%	23.2%	0.25×	17.40

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras (0:2)	95.6%	94.1%	76.8%	1.22×	1.06
Draw (0:2)	3.3%	3.7%	14.1%	0.27×	26.68
Chapecoense (0:2)	1.1%	3.7%	9.2%	0.41×	26.81

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras (0:3)	98.9%	96.6%	90.8%	1.06×	1.04
Draw (0:3)	0.9%	2.4%	6.7%	0.36×	42.17
Chapecoense (0:3)	0.2%	2.4%	2.7%	0.88×	42.20

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras (0:4)	99.8%	98.1%	97.3%	1.01×	1.02
Chapecoense (0:4)	0.0%	1.2%	1.1%	1.10×	82.10
Draw (0:4)	0.2%	1.2%	1.7%	0.70×	82.08

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras (1:0)	43.5%	43.4%	9.5%	4.56×	2.30
Chapecoense (1:0)	33.7%	30.2%	76.0%	0.40×	3.31
Draw (1:0)	22.8%	21.7%	14.6%	1.49×	4.61

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chapecoense (2:0)	56.5%	62.0%	90.5%	0.68×	1.61
Palmeiras (2:0)	23.4%	19.1%	3.5%	5.48×	5.23
Draw (2:0)	20.2%	18.8%	6.2%	3.04×	5.31

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	50.0%	48.8%	—	—	2.05
1st half highest scoring	25.9%	26.2%	—	—	3.82
Halves equal	24.1%	24.5%	—	—	4.09

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chapecoense to concede	88.9%	85.7%	65.4%	1.31×	1.17
Chapecoense clean sheet	11.1%	14.3%	34.6%	0.41×	6.98

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chapecoense to concede in 1st half	58.6%	62.0%	—	—	1.61
Chapecoense clean sheet in 1st half	41.4%	38.0%	—	—	2.63

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chapecoense to concede in 2nd half	73.3%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Chapecoense clean sheet in 2nd half	26.7%	27.5%	—	—	3.63

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chapecoense over 2.5 corners	79.2%	76.5%	—	—	1.31
Chapecoense under 6.5 corners	73.0%	71.9%	—	—	1.39
Chapecoense over 3.5 corners	65.3%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
Chapecoense under 5.5 corners	62.1%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
Chapecoense over 4.5 corners	50.9%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
Chapecoense under 4.5 corners	49.1%	47.4%	—	—	2.11
Chapecoense over 5.5 corners	37.9%	37.7%	—	—	2.65
Chapecoense under 3.5 corners	34.7%	33.3%	—	—	3.01
Chapecoense over 6.5 corners	27.0%	28.1%	—	—	3.55
Chapecoense under 2.5 corners	20.8%	23.5%	—	—	4.26

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chapecoense under 3.5 goals	98.7%	96.4%	94.3%	1.02×	1.04
Chapecoense under 2.5 goals	93.8%	92.2%	81.4%	1.13×	1.08
Chapecoense under 1.5 goals	77.5%	77.7%	54.4%	1.43×	1.29
Chapecoense over 0.5 goals	59.1%	58.6%	79.7%	0.74×	1.71
Chapecoense under 0.5 goals	40.9%	41.4%	20.3%	2.04×	2.42
Chapecoense over 1.5 goals	22.5%	22.3%	45.6%	0.49×	4.49
Chapecoense over 2.5 goals	6.2%	7.8%	18.6%	0.42×	12.90
Chapecoense over 3.5 goals	1.3%	3.6%	5.7%	0.63×	27.61

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chapecoense under 1.5 in 1st half	94.3%	94.9%	—	—	1.05
Chapecoense under 0.5 in 1st half	68.1%	69.2%	—	—	1.45
Chapecoense over 0.5 in 1st half	31.9%	30.8%	—	—	3.24
Chapecoense over 1.5 in 1st half	5.7%	5.1%	—	—	19.47

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chapecoense scores equally in both	49.3%	47.3%	—	—	2.11
Chapecoense scores more in 2nd half	29.7%	27.8%	—	—	3.60
Chapecoense scores more in 1st half	21.0%	21.2%	—	—	4.72

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras (home no bet)	76.4%	77.7%	46.7%	1.66×	1.29
Draw (home no bet)	23.6%	22.3%	53.3%	0.42×	4.48

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chapecoense even goals	58.4%	55.3%	51.6%	1.07×	1.81
Chapecoense odd goals	41.6%	44.7%	48.4%	0.92×	2.24

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	28.4%	28.3%	—	—	3.54
HT 0-1	24.7%	24.4%	—	—	4.10
HT 0-2	10.9%	11.0%	—	—	9.13
HT 1-0	10.7%	11.0%	—	—	9.13
HT 1-1	9.7%	6.9%	—	—	14.44
Any other HT score	6.6%	6.9%	—	—	14.48
HT 1-2	4.2%	2.4%	—	—	42.02
HT 2-0	2.1%	2.4%	—	—	42.16
HT 2-1	1.8%	2.4%	—	—	42.18
HT 2-2	0.8%	2.4%	—	—	42.24

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras at HT / Palmeiras at FT	41.0%	41.0%	—	—	2.44
Draw at HT / Palmeiras at FT	21.5%	21.6%	—	—	4.63
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	12.3%	12.7%	—	—	7.90
Chapecoense at HT / Chapecoense at FT	7.1%	6.0%	—	—	16.62
Draw at HT / Chapecoense at FT	5.1%	6.0%	—	—	16.68
Chapecoense at HT / Draw at FT	4.4%	3.5%	—	—	28.63
Chapecoense at HT / Palmeiras at FT	3.8%	3.5%	—	—	28.65
Palmeiras at HT / Draw at FT	3.8%	3.5%	—	—	28.65
Palmeiras at HT / Chapecoense at FT	1.0%	3.5%	—	—	28.75

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras to score last	67.5%	70.3%	—	—	1.42
Chapecoense to score last	27.2%	27.6%	—	—	3.63
No goal scored	5.3%	7.4%	—	—	13.54

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	94.7%	92.7%	—	—	1.08
Palmeiras to lead by 1 at any time	77.6%	78.4%	—	—	1.28
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	58.0%	54.9%	—	—	1.82
Palmeiras to lead by 2 at any time	50.1%	50.8%	—	—	1.97
Chapecoense to lead by 1 at any time	31.3%	29.8%	—	—	3.36
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	28.3%	25.5%	—	—	3.92
Palmeiras to lead by 3 at any time	26.5%	25.5%	—	—	3.92
Chapecoense to lead by 2 at any time	8.3%	6.7%	—	—	14.88
Chapecoense to lead by 3 at any time	1.8%	1.6%	—	—	62.94

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras most corners	54.8%	51.7%	—	—	1.93
Chapecoense most corners	36.1%	39.3%	—	—	2.55
Corners level	9.2%	8.4%	—	—	11.97

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	85.3%	87.4%	88.7%	0.99×	1.14
2-6 goals	78.5%	78.7%	73.8%	1.07×	1.27
1-4 goals	74.6%	72.4%	81.7%	0.89×	1.38
2-5 goals	72.9%	72.4%	69.7%	1.04×	1.38
2-4 goals	62.2%	63.3%	62.7%	1.01×	1.58
1-3 goals	57.3%	59.1%	68.7%	0.86×	1.69
3-6 goals	56.0%	59.1%	47.1%	1.25×	1.69
3-5 goals	50.4%	53.2%	43.0%	1.24×	1.88
2-3 goals	44.9%	43.6%	49.7%	0.88×	2.29
3-4 goals	39.7%	39.2%	36.0%	1.09×	2.55
1-2 goals	34.9%	35.2%	45.9%	0.77×	2.84
4-6 goals	33.6%	35.2%	24.3%	1.45×	2.84
4-5 goals	28.1%	30.2%	20.2%	1.50×	3.31
5-6 goals	16.3%	18.8%	11.3%	1.67×	5.31
7+ goals	3.8%	2.6%	0.6%	4.03×	39.05

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras never behind	63.4%	68.3%	—	—	1.46
Chapecoense never behind	17.1%	18.3%	—	—	5.46

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	48.3%	50.9%	49.2%	1.03×	1.96
Even number of goals	51.7%	49.1%	50.8%	0.97×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	54.3%	51.6%	—	—	1.94
Odd goals in 1st half	45.7%	48.4%	—	—	2.07

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	51.8%	51.9%	—	—	1.93
Odd goals in 2nd half	48.2%	48.1%	—	—	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	94.7%	92.3%	93.3%	0.99×	1.08
Under 5.5 goals	90.7%	92.3%	95.2%	0.97×	1.08
Over 1.5 goals	82.3%	82.3%	74.3%	1.11×	1.22
Under 4.5 goals	79.9%	77.3%	88.3%	0.88×	1.29
Under 3.5 goals	62.6%	61.7%	75.2%	0.82×	1.62
Over 2.5 goals	59.8%	58.6%	47.6%	1.23×	1.71
Under 2.5 goals	40.2%	41.4%	52.4%	0.79×	2.42
Over 3.5 goals	37.4%	38.3%	24.8%	1.55×	2.61
Over 4.5 goals	20.1%	22.7%	11.7%	1.93×	4.41
Under 1.5 goals	17.7%	17.7%	25.7%	0.69×	5.65
Over 5.5 goals	9.3%	7.7%	4.8%	1.62×	12.93
Under 0.5 goals	5.3%	7.7%	6.7%	1.16×	12.95

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	96.0%	97.2%	99.3%	0.98×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	89.5%	86.7%	94.9%	0.91×	1.15
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	77.1%	75.9%	64.9%	1.17×	1.32
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	75.7%	75.9%	86.5%	0.88×	1.32
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	51.8%	51.9%	67.9%	0.76×	1.93
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	48.2%	48.1%	32.1%	1.50×	2.08
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	24.3%	24.1%	13.5%	1.79×	4.14
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	22.9%	24.1%	35.1%	0.69×	4.15
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	10.5%	13.3%	5.1%	2.59×	7.54
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	4.0%	2.8%	0.7%	4.25×	35.54

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	86.5%	89.1%	—	—	1.12
Over 0.5 in 1st half	71.6%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
Under 1.5 in 1st half	63.8%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Over 1.5 in 1st half	36.2%	36.8%	—	—	2.72
Under 0.5 in 1st half	28.4%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
Over 2.5 in 1st half	13.5%	10.9%	—	—	9.21

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	83.7%	83.3%	—	—	1.20
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	72.3%	77.6%	—	—	1.29
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	54.9%	53.1%	—	—	1.88
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	45.1%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	27.7%	22.4%	—	—	4.46
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	16.3%	16.7%	—	—	5.98

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chapecoense not to score in both halves	87.3%	85.5%	—	—	1.17
Palmeiras not to score in both halves	57.1%	58.0%	—	—	1.72
Palmeiras to score in both halves	42.9%	42.0%	—	—	2.38
Chapecoense to score in both halves	12.7%	14.5%	—	—	6.92

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	53.4%	53.9%	51.7%	1.04×	1.86
Only Palmeiras scores	35.6%	39.9%	13.8%	2.89×	2.51
Only Chapecoense scores	5.7%	7.1%	28.1%	0.25×	14.05
Neither team scores	5.3%	7.1%	6.7%	1.07×	14.06

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	22.5%	22.6%	26.8%	0.84×	4.43
Exactly 3 goals	22.4%	22.6%	23.0%	0.98×	4.43
Exactly 4 goals	17.3%	17.5%	13.2%	1.33×	5.73
Exactly 1 goals	12.4%	12.1%	19.2%	0.63×	8.25
Exactly 5 goals	10.7%	12.1%	7.1%	1.70×	8.25
6 or more goals	9.3%	7.6%	4.8%	1.60×	13.13
Exactly 0 goals	5.3%	7.6%	6.7%	1.14×	13.14

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 1st half	35.4%	37.3%	—	—	2.68
No goals in 1st half	28.4%	28.5%	—	—	3.51
2 goals in 1st half	22.7%	21.5%	—	—	4.66
3+ goals in 1st half	13.5%	10.8%	—	—	9.29

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	54.9%	51.3%	—	—	1.95
1 goal in 2nd half	28.8%	29.2%	—	—	3.42
No goals in 2nd half	16.3%	16.4%	—	—	6.10

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chapecoense not to win both halves	97.8%	97.2%	—	—	1.03
Palmeiras not to win both halves	73.9%	72.9%	—	—	1.37
Palmeiras to win both halves	26.1%	27.1%	—	—	3.69
Chapecoense to win both halves	2.2%	2.8%	—	—	35.89

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras to win either half	76.3%	79.7%	—	—	1.26
Chapecoense to win neither half	72.9%	73.1%	—	—	1.37
Chapecoense to win either half	27.1%	27.0%	—	—	3.71
Palmeiras to win neither half	23.7%	20.3%	—	—	4.93

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chapecoense not to win to nil	94.3%	92.1%	71.9%	1.28×	1.09
Palmeiras not to win to nil	64.4%	66.6%	86.2%	0.77×	1.50
Palmeiras to win to nil	35.6%	33.4%	13.8%	2.42×	3.00
Chapecoense to win to nil	5.7%	7.9%	28.1%	0.28×	12.69

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Palmeiras by 3+	23.4%	24.1%	3.5%	6.90×	4.15
Palmeiras by 1	22.8%	24.1%	14.6%	1.65×	4.15
Draw	20.5%	24.1%	27.3%	0.88×	4.15
Palmeiras by 2	20.2%	24.1%	6.2%	3.89×	4.15
Chapecoense by 1	8.8%	7.2%	25.9%	0.28×	13.90
Chapecoense by 2	3.3%	2.7%	14.1%	0.19×	36.80
Chapecoense by 3+	1.1%	2.7%	9.2%	0.29×	36.87