Charlton Athletic v Bolton Wanderers — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Tuesday 3 November 2026 · ENG-Championship · 2627
Championship
results-only Prediction generated
AI prediction
ai-blend v1.0 dailyRaw model output; no calibration record for this fixture's bands yet.
Top 5 scorelines
- 1-1 14.9%
- 0-0 12.8%
- 1-0 11.9%
- 0-1 9.4%
- 2-0 8.2%
Goals
| Over 2.5 | 37.4% | Under 2.5 | 62.6% |
| BTTS yes | 45.4% | BTTS no | 54.6% |
| Charlton Athletic 1+ | 70.1% | Charlton Athletic 2+ | 34.0% |
| Bolton Wanderers 1+ | 62.5% | Bolton Wanderers 2+ | 25.8% |
Expected goals 1.21 – 0.98. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.
Footing
Positive factors
- Form is good: 2.20 points a match from the last five.
Risk factors
- Data quality is 55/100, so this price rests on less than the model would like.
- Bolton Wanderers have only 6 matches on record.
Why the model thinks this
The price
Charlton Athletic have an estimated 39.6% win probability, against 32.2% for the draw and 28.3% for Bolton Wanderers. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.21 for Charlton Athletic and 0.98 for Bolton Wanderers.
Why Charlton Athletic
Form is good: 2.20 points a match from the last five.
Why the draw is live
The draw sits at 32.2%. A combined 2.19 expected goals is a low-scoring profile, and low totals mean more level finishes. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.21 to 0.98. Draws run at 28% in this competition.
Why Bolton Wanderers can win
Bolton Wanderers carry the stronger rating, 1464 Elo against 1437.
Key players
No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.
Availability
No lineup on record for Charlton Athletic, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Bolton Wanderers, so availability is unknown.
The matchup, as far as the data reaches
Charlton Athletic: 36% possession, 9.6 shots a match, 16.4 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Bolton Wanderers: 51% possession, 12.2 shots a match, 13.2 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.
Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-25 14:59 · team_stats 2026-10-25 06:07 · availability 2026-10-25 15:02 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·
Charlton Athletic are the model's most likely outcome at 39.6%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 14.9%. Confidence 41/100, data quality 55/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.
Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.
Was this pick made in advance?
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend | 1.21–0.98 | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| dc-xg | 1.06–0.83 | 0-0 17% | 30% | 39% |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.