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Charlton Athletic v Sheffield United — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 7 November 2026 · ENG-Championship · 2627

Championship results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily
Charlton Athletic win
38.9%
model 35.7%
Draw
30.5%
model 31.8%
Sheffield United win
30.6%
model 32.5%

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (648 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

  1. 1-1 14.9%
  2. 0-0 12.0%
  3. 1-0 10.5%
  4. 0-1 9.8%
  5. 2-1 7.8%

Goals

Over 2.539.5% Under 2.560.5%
BTTS yes47.6% BTTS no52.4%
Charlton Athletic 1+68.8% Charlton Athletic 2+32.5%
Sheffield United 1+66.8% Sheffield United 2+30.2%

Expected goals 1.17 – 1.10. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence
48/100
Data quality
75/100
Model agreement
98%
★ Best pick
Not both teams to score
GG/NG · usually 46%
53.4% fair odds 1.87
moderate signal · 1528 settled matches behind the band
★ Most likely to land
Sheffield United (0:2)
Handicap 0:2 · usually 81%
83.8% fair odds 1.19
moderate signal · 504 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

  • Form is good: 2.20 points a match from the last five.

Risk factors

  • No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.
Why the model thinks this

The price

Charlton Athletic have an estimated 38.9% win probability, against 30.6% for Sheffield United and 30.5% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.17 for Charlton Athletic and 1.10 for Sheffield United.

Why Charlton Athletic

Form is good: 2.20 points a match from the last five.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 30.5%. A combined 2.27 expected goals is a low-scoring profile, and low totals mean more level finishes. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.17 to 1.10. Draws run at 28% in this competition.

Why Sheffield United can win

Sheffield United carry the stronger rating, 1496 Elo against 1437. Form is good: 1.80 points a match from the last five.

Key players

Sheffield United's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Ben Brereton Díaz (0.39), Oliver McBurnie (0.30), Cameron Archer (0.28).

Availability

No lineup on record for Charlton Athletic, so availability is unknown. 1 of Sheffield United's top three contributors did not start their last match.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Charlton Athletic: 36% possession, 9.6 shots a match, 16.4 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Sheffield United: 40% possession, 8.2 shots a match, 16.8 faced, 0.36 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-25 14:59 · team_stats 2026-10-25 06:07 · availability 2026-10-25 15:02 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Charlton Athletic are the model's most likely outcome at 38.9%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 14.9%. Confidence 48/100, data quality 75/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Sheffield United are finishing below their chances — 2.8 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 9.0 goals above expected, which tends to correct.

DLDLLLLLLL last 10 scored 11 from 13.8 xG conceded 30 from 21.1 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
ai-blend 1.17–1.10 0% 0% 0%
dc-xg 1.06–0.98 1-1 15% 33% 43%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Charlton Athletic to win 35.2% 36.3% 43.4% 0.84× 2.75
Draw 33.7% 30.4% 27.6% 1.10× 3.29
Sheffield United to win 31.1% 30.4% 29.1% 1.05× 3.29
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Charlton Athletic & not both score 22.9% 21.8% 23.3% 0.94× 4.58
Sheffield United & not both score 20.0% 21.8% 15.2% 1.43× 4.59
Draw & both teams score 19.1% 18.0% 20.4% 0.88× 5.56
Draw & not both score 14.6% 13.3% 7.3% 1.82× 7.53
Charlton Athletic & both teams score 12.3% 13.3% 20.2% 0.66× 7.54
Sheffield United & both teams score 11.1% 13.3% 13.9% 0.95× 7.54
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw & under 2.5 29.7% 26.1% 21.8% 1.20× 3.84
Draw & under 3.5 29.7% 26.1% 21.8% 1.20× 3.84
Charlton Athletic & under 3.5 29.2% 26.1% 32.4% 0.81× 3.84
Sheffield United & under 3.5 26.1% 26.1% 22.3% 1.17× 3.84
Charlton Athletic & over 1.5 23.1% 21.6% 32.5% 0.67× 4.63
Sheffield United & over 1.5 20.0% 21.6% 21.4% 1.01× 4.63
Charlton Athletic & under 2.5 19.4% 18.0% 17.1% 1.05× 5.56
Draw & over 1.5 19.1% 18.0% 20.4% 0.88× 5.56
Sheffield United & under 2.5 17.4% 18.0% 12.9% 1.39× 5.56
Charlton Athletic & over 2.5 15.8% 18.0% 26.4% 0.68× 5.56
Draw & under 1.5 14.6% 12.8% 7.3% 1.76× 7.79
Sheffield United & over 2.5 13.8% 12.8% 16.2% 0.79× 7.79
Charlton Athletic & under 1.5 12.1% 12.8% 11.0% 1.16× 7.79
Sheffield United & under 1.5 11.1% 12.8% 7.7% 1.66× 7.79
Charlton Athletic & over 3.5 6.0% 7.9% 11.1% 0.71× 12.63
Sheffield United & over 3.5 5.1% 7.9% 6.8% 1.16× 12.63
Draw & over 2.5 3.9% 4.8% 5.9% 0.81× 20.81
Draw & over 3.5 3.9% 4.8% 5.9% 0.81× 20.81
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Charlton Athletic (1UP) 49.1% 44.0% — — 2.27
Sheffield United (1UP) 45.4% 43.8% — — 2.28
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Charlton Athletic (2UP) 35.2% 37.3% — — 2.68
Sheffield United (2UP) 31.1% 30.3% — — 3.30
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half drawn 43.2% 41.9% — — 2.39
Charlton Athletic to win 2nd half 28.9% 26.1% — — 3.83
Sheffield United to win 2nd half 27.9% 26.1% — — 3.84
2nd half away goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sheffield United under 1.5 in 2nd half 88.2% 86.9% — — 1.15
Sheffield United under 0.5 in 2nd half 55.5% 54.3% — — 1.84
Sheffield United over 0.5 in 2nd half 44.5% 45.7% — — 2.19
Sheffield United over 1.5 in 2nd half 11.8% 13.1% — — 7.61
2nd half home goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Charlton Athletic under 1.5 in 2nd half 87.7% 88.6% — — 1.13
Charlton Athletic under 0.5 in 2nd half 54.7% 55.3% — — 1.81
Charlton Athletic over 0.5 in 2nd half 45.3% 44.7% — — 2.24
Charlton Athletic over 1.5 in 2nd half 12.3% 11.4% — — 8.76
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sheffield United (+2.5) 95.6% 96.3% 91.9% 1.05× 1.04
Sheffield United (+1.5) 85.5% 88.5% 80.7% 1.10× 1.13
Charlton Athletic (+0.5) 68.9% 68.7% 70.9% 0.97× 1.46
Sheffield United (+0.5) 64.8% 63.0% 56.6% 1.11× 1.59
Charlton Athletic (-0.5) 35.2% 37.0% 43.4% 0.85× 2.70
Sheffield United (-0.5) 31.1% 31.3% 29.1% 1.08× 3.19
Charlton Athletic (-1.5) 14.5% 11.5% 19.3% 0.60× 8.66
Charlton Athletic (-2.5) 4.4% 3.7% 8.1% 0.46× 27.04
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sheffield United to concede 65.4% 72.3% 77.6% 0.93× 1.38
Sheffield United clean sheet 34.6% 27.7% 22.4% 1.24× 3.61
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sheffield United clean sheet in 1st half 63.4% 64.4% — — 1.55
Sheffield United to concede in 1st half 36.6% 35.6% — — 2.81
Away clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sheffield United clean sheet in 2nd half 54.7% 54.9% — — 1.82
Sheffield United to concede in 2nd half 45.3% 45.1% — — 2.22
Away corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sheffield United over 2.5 corners 87.4% 85.2% — — 1.17
Sheffield United over 3.5 corners 77.8% 76.1% — — 1.32
Sheffield United over 4.5 corners 66.8% 67.6% — — 1.48
Sheffield United over 5.5 corners 55.5% 57.2% — — 1.75
Sheffield United under 6.5 corners 55.3% 57.2% — — 1.75
Sheffield United under 5.5 corners 44.5% 42.8% — — 2.33
Sheffield United over 6.5 corners 44.7% 42.8% — — 2.33
Sheffield United under 4.5 corners 33.2% 32.4% — — 3.09
Sheffield United under 3.5 corners 22.2% 23.9% — — 4.18
Sheffield United under 2.5 corners 12.6% 14.8% — — 6.78
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sheffield United under 3.5 goals 98.2% 97.5% 97.8% 1.00× 1.03
Sheffield United under 2.5 goals 92.3% 92.3% 90.6% 1.02× 1.08
Sheffield United under 1.5 goals 74.2% 71.9% 70.0% 1.03× 1.39
Sheffield United over 0.5 goals 62.5% 63.2% 69.5% 0.91× 1.58
Sheffield United under 0.5 goals 37.5% 36.8% 30.5% 1.21× 2.72
Sheffield United over 1.5 goals 25.8% 28.1% 30.0% 0.94× 3.55
Sheffield United over 2.5 goals 7.7% 7.7% 9.4% 0.81× 13.06
Sheffield United over 3.5 goals 1.8% 2.5% 2.2% 1.13× 39.97
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sheffield United under 1.5 in 1st half 94.0% 93.9% — — 1.07
Sheffield United under 0.5 in 1st half 67.5% 69.9% — — 1.43
Sheffield United over 0.5 in 1st half 32.5% 30.1% — — 3.33
Sheffield United over 1.5 in 1st half 6.0% 6.1% — — 16.27
Away highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sheffield United scores equally in both 46.6% 48.1% — — 2.08
Sheffield United scores more in 2nd half 33.3% 33.2% — — 3.01
Sheffield United scores more in 1st half 20.0% 21.8% — — 4.60
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Charlton Athletic (away no bet) 51.1% 51.7% 61.1% 0.85× 1.94
Draw (away no bet) 48.9% 48.4% 38.9% 1.24× 2.07
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sheffield United even goals 57.0% 56.9% 52.4% 1.09× 1.76
Sheffield United odd goals 43.0% 43.1% 47.6% 0.91× 2.32
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 93.0% 92.3% — — 1.08
Both halves over 1.5 goals 7.0% 7.7% — — 13.05
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both halves under 1.5 goals 51.8% 50.4% — — 1.98
Not both halves under 1.5 48.2% 49.6% — — 2.02
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 41.0% 38.6% — — 2.59
Charlton Athletic to score 2+ in a row 23.3% 19.6% — — 5.09
Sheffield United to score 2+ in a row 20.5% 19.6% — — 5.11
Either team to score 3+ in a row 11.2% 12.0% — — 8.34
Charlton Athletic to score 3+ in a row 6.2% 5.5% — — 18.17
Sheffield United to score 3+ in a row 5.1% 5.5% — — 18.26
Corner handicap 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sheffield United corners (+3.5) 81.1% 79.8% — — 1.25
Sheffield United corners (+2.5) 75.2% 74.8% — — 1.34
Charlton Athletic corners (+3.5) 71.4% 70.7% — — 1.41
Sheffield United corners (+1.5) 68.2% 65.9% — — 1.52
Charlton Athletic corners (+2.5) 64.2% 61.8% — — 1.62
Charlton Athletic corners (+1.5) 56.3% 57.1% — — 1.75
Sheffield United corners (-1.5) 43.7% 42.9% — — 2.33
Sheffield United corners (-2.5) 35.8% 38.2% — — 2.62
Charlton Athletic corners (-1.5) 31.8% 34.1% — — 2.93
Sheffield United corners (-3.5) 28.6% 29.3% — — 3.42
Charlton Athletic corners (-2.5) 24.8% 25.2% — — 3.97
Charlton Athletic corners (-3.5) 18.9% 20.2% — — 4.94
Corner range 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
12+ corners 52.2% 45.2% — — 2.21
0-8 corners 24.3% 25.7% — — 3.90
9-11 corners 23.6% 25.7% — — 3.90
Corners O/U 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 7.5 corners 82.5% 80.7% — — 1.24
Over 8.5 corners 75.7% 76.6% — — 1.31
Over 9.5 corners 68.2% 67.8% — — 1.47
Over 10.5 corners 60.2% 63.2% — — 1.58
Under 12.5 corners 55.6% 57.9% — — 1.73
Over 11.5 corners 52.2% 53.1% — — 1.88
Under 11.5 corners 47.8% 46.9% — — 2.13
Over 12.5 corners 44.4% 42.1% — — 2.38
Under 10.5 corners 39.8% 36.8% — — 2.72
Under 9.5 corners 31.8% 32.2% — — 3.11
Under 8.5 corners 24.3% 23.4% — — 4.27
Under 7.5 corners 17.5% 19.3% — — 5.17
Corners Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of corners 50.0% 50.1% — — 1.99
Even number of corners 50.0% 49.9% — — 2.01
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-1 15.1% 13.8% 14.5% 0.95× 7.24
0-0 14.6% 11.5% 7.3% 1.57× 8.71
1-0 12.1% 11.5% 11.0% 1.04× 8.72
0-1 11.1% 11.5% 7.7% 1.48× 8.72
1-2 6.6% 7.4% 8.0% 0.93× 13.51
2-0 7.3% 7.4% 6.1% 1.21× 13.51
2-1 7.2% 7.4% 11.5% 0.65× 13.51
0-2 6.3% 7.4% 5.3% 1.41× 13.51
0-3 2.0% 1.7% 1.6% 1.06× 58.31
0-4 0.5% 1.7% 0.4% 4.04× 58.32
1-3 2.2% 1.7% 3.1% 0.56× 58.31
1-4 0.5% 1.7% 0.6% 2.88× 58.32
2-2 3.5% 1.7% 5.2% 0.33× 58.30
2-3 1.2% 1.7% 1.7% 1.01× 58.31
2-4 0.3% 1.7% 0.3% 6.73× 58.32
3-0 2.6% 1.7% 4.0% 0.43× 58.30
3-1 2.5% 1.7% 4.3% 0.40× 58.30
3-2 1.2% 1.7% 1.8% 0.96× 58.31
3-3 0.4% 1.7% 0.9% 2.02× 58.32
3-4 0.1% 1.7% 0.3% 6.73× 58.32
4-0 0.7% 1.7% 1.7% 1.01× 58.32
4-1 0.7% 1.7% 0.9% 2.02× 58.32
4-2 0.3% 1.7% 0.8% 2.24× 58.32
4-3 0.1% 1.7% 0.2% 10.09× 58.32
4-4 0.0% 1.7% 0.1% 20.18× 58.32
Any other score 0.8% 1.7% 3.0% 0.58× 58.31
DNB 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Charlton Athletic (2nd half DNB) 50.8% 53.3% — — 1.88
Sheffield United (2nd half DNB) 49.2% 46.7% — — 2.14
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Charlton Athletic leading at HT (DNB) 54.6% 56.6% — — 1.77
Sheffield United leading at HT (DNB) 45.4% 43.4% — — 2.30
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Charlton Athletic or draw (1X) 68.9% 69.6% 70.9% 0.98× 1.44
Charlton Athletic or Sheffield United (12) 66.3% 69.6% 72.4% 0.96× 1.44
Sheffield United or draw (X2) 64.8% 63.7% 56.6% 1.13× 1.57
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Charlton Athletic or draw at HT 77.9% 79.5% — — 1.26
Sheffield United or draw at HT 73.5% 74.8% — — 1.34
Charlton Athletic or Sheffield United at HT 48.6% 52.7% — — 1.90
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Charlton Athletic or draw (1UP) 68.9% 76.4% — — 1.31
Sheffield United or draw (1UP) 64.8% 71.7% — — 1.40
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Charlton Athletic or draw in 2nd half 72.1% 73.9% — — 1.35
Sheffield United or draw in 2nd half 71.1% 73.9% — — 1.35
Charlton Athletic or Sheffield United in 2nd half 56.8% 58.1% — — 1.72
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half drawn 70.7% 70.7% — — 1.42
Neither half drawn 29.3% 29.3% — — 3.41
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Charlton Athletic (DNB) 53.1% 50.9% 59.9% 0.85× 1.96
Sheffield United (DNB) 46.9% 49.1% 40.1% 1.22× 2.04
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Charlton Athletic to score first 44.3% 41.8% — — 2.40
Sheffield United to score first 41.1% 41.6% — — 2.41
No goal scored 14.6% 10.5% — — 9.53
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 57.5% 55.0% 45.6% 1.21× 1.82
Both teams to score 42.5% 45.0% 54.4% 0.83× 2.22
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both score & under 2.5 51.4% 47.2% 37.1% 1.27× 2.12
Both score & over 2.5 27.4% 33.3% 39.9% 0.83× 3.00
Both score & under 2.5 15.1% 21.5% 14.5% 1.48× 4.65
Not both score & over 2.5 6.1% 8.3% 8.6% 0.96× 12.08
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 92.6% 89.0% 89.0% 1.00× 1.12
Both teams to score 2+ 7.4% 11.0% 11.0% 1.00× 9.10
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 79.3% 75.1% — — 1.33
Both teams to score in 2nd half 20.7% 24.9% — — 4.02
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 69.5% 63.9% — — 1.57
Both score 2nd half only 18.3% 15.1% — — 6.63
Both score 1st half only 9.8% 6.9% — — 14.54
Both score in both halves 2.4% 4.8% — — 20.63
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 87.8% 85.6% — — 1.17
Both teams to score by HT 12.2% 14.4% — — 6.93
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half without a goal 59.4% 57.1% — — 1.75
A goal in each half 40.6% 42.9% — — 2.33
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-3 goals 47.1% 47.2% 50.5% 0.94× 2.12
0-1 goals 37.9% 35.1% 25.9% 1.35× 2.85
4-6 goals 14.5% 17.0% 22.4% 0.76× 5.89
7+ goals 0.5% 1.8% 1.4% 1.35× 54.49
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sheffield United to score exactly 0 37.5% 35.9% 30.5% 1.18× 2.78
Sheffield United to score exactly 1 36.8% 35.9% 39.6% 0.91× 2.78
Sheffield United to score exactly 2 18.1% 19.6% 20.6% 0.95× 5.11
Sheffield United to score 3+ 7.7% 8.6% 9.4% 0.91× 11.70
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Charlton Athletic to score exactly 1 36.7% 35.6% 37.0% 0.96× 2.81
Charlton Athletic to score exactly 0 34.6% 32.6% 22.4% 1.45× 3.07
Charlton Athletic to score exactly 2 19.5% 18.8% 24.6% 0.76× 5.33
Charlton Athletic to score 3+ 9.2% 10.3% 16.1% 0.64× 9.66
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw at HT 51.4% 47.3% — — 2.12
Charlton Athletic leading at HT 26.5% 25.2% — — 3.97
Sheffield United leading at HT 22.1% 20.5% — — 4.87
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Charlton Athletic -1: 2 64.8% 62.6% — — 1.60
Charlton Athletic -1: X 20.6% 23.5% — — 4.26
Charlton Athletic -1: 1 14.5% 14.0% — — 7.14
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sheffield United (0:1) 64.8% 61.4% 56.6% 1.09× 1.63
Draw (0:1) 20.6% 24.2% 24.2% 1.00× 4.13
Charlton Athletic (0:1) 14.5% 13.7% 19.3% 0.71× 7.28
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sheffield United (0:2) 85.5% 87.1% 80.7% 1.08× 1.15
Draw (0:2) 10.2% 11.0% 11.3% 0.97× 9.11
Charlton Athletic (0:2) 4.4% 3.8% 8.1% 0.47× 26.62
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sheffield United (0:3) 95.6% 96.6% 91.9% 1.05× 1.04
Draw (0:3) 3.3% 2.4% 4.8% 0.50× 42.08
Charlton Athletic (0:3) 1.0% 2.4% 3.4% 0.70× 42.18
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sheffield United (0:4) 99.0% 98.1% 96.6% 1.02× 1.02
Draw (0:4) 0.8% 1.2% 2.4% 0.51× 82.08
Charlton Athletic (0:4) 0.2% 1.2% 1.1% 1.10× 82.15
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Charlton Athletic (1:0) 68.9% 70.2% 70.9% 0.99× 1.43
Draw (1:0) 19.0% 17.1% 17.4% 0.98× 5.84
Sheffield United (1:0) 12.1% 12.7% 11.7% 1.08× 7.87
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Charlton Athletic (2:0) 87.9% 88.5% 88.3% 1.00× 1.13
Draw (2:0) 8.7% 6.4% 8.6% 0.74× 15.65
Sheffield United (2:0) 3.4% 2.3% 3.2% 0.71× 43.68
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 42.6% 45.8% — — 2.18
Halves equal 32.3% 28.7% — — 3.49
1st half highest scoring 25.1% 26.2% — — 3.82
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Charlton Athletic to concede 62.5% 63.7% 69.5% 0.92× 1.57
Charlton Athletic clean sheet 37.5% 36.3% 30.5% 1.19× 2.75
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Charlton Athletic clean sheet in 1st half 67.5% 70.3% — — 1.42
Charlton Athletic to concede in 1st half 32.5% 29.7% — — 3.36
Home clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Charlton Athletic clean sheet in 2nd half 55.5% 54.5% — — 1.83
Charlton Athletic to concede in 2nd half 44.5% 45.5% — — 2.20
Home corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Charlton Athletic over 2.5 corners 83.1% 81.0% — — 1.24
Charlton Athletic over 3.5 corners 71.5% 71.9% — — 1.39
Charlton Athletic under 6.5 corners 64.1% 62.3% — — 1.61
Charlton Athletic over 4.5 corners 58.9% 57.5% — — 1.74
Charlton Athletic under 5.5 corners 53.3% 52.6% — — 1.90
Charlton Athletic over 5.5 corners 46.7% 47.4% — — 2.11
Charlton Athletic under 4.5 corners 41.1% 42.5% — — 2.35
Charlton Athletic over 6.5 corners 35.9% 37.7% — — 2.65
Charlton Athletic under 3.5 corners 28.5% 28.1% — — 3.55
Charlton Athletic under 2.5 corners 16.9% 19.0% — — 5.25
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Charlton Athletic under 3.5 goals 97.7% 96.4% 94.8% 1.02× 1.04
Charlton Athletic under 2.5 goals 90.8% 92.2% 83.9% 1.10× 1.08
Charlton Athletic under 1.5 goals 71.4% 74.2% 59.4% 1.25× 1.35
Charlton Athletic over 0.5 goals 65.4% 67.9% 77.6% 0.88× 1.47
Charlton Athletic under 0.5 goals 34.6% 32.1% 22.4% 1.43× 3.12
Charlton Athletic over 1.5 goals 28.6% 25.8% 40.6% 0.63× 3.88
Charlton Athletic over 2.5 goals 9.2% 7.8% 16.1% 0.48× 12.85
Charlton Athletic over 3.5 goals 2.3% 3.6% 5.2% 0.70× 27.57
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Charlton Athletic under 1.5 in 1st half 92.3% 94.8% — — 1.06
Charlton Athletic under 0.5 in 1st half 63.4% 64.0% — — 1.56
Charlton Athletic over 0.5 in 1st half 36.6% 36.0% — — 2.78
Charlton Athletic over 1.5 in 1st half 7.7% 5.2% — — 19.05
Home highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Charlton Athletic scores equally in both 44.9% 42.1% — — 2.37
Charlton Athletic scores more in 2nd half 32.5% 33.2% — — 3.01
Charlton Athletic scores more in 1st half 22.7% 21.1% — — 4.74
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw (home no bet) 52.0% 51.4% 48.7% 1.05× 1.95
Sheffield United (home no bet) 48.0% 48.6% 51.3% 0.95× 2.06
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Charlton Athletic even goals 56.0% 55.3% 50.5% 1.09× 1.81
Charlton Athletic odd goals 44.0% 44.7% 49.5% 0.90× 2.24
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 0-0 43.1% 39.4% — — 2.54
HT 1-0 19.2% 18.5% — — 5.40
HT 0-1 16.5% 18.5% — — 5.41
HT 1-1 7.9% 6.9% — — 14.45
HT 2-0 4.4% 2.4% — — 41.92
HT 0-2 3.3% 2.4% — — 41.99
HT 2-1 1.7% 2.4% — — 42.09
Any other HT score 1.9% 2.4% — — 42.09
HT 1-2 1.5% 2.4% — — 42.11
HT 2-2 0.3% 2.4% — — 42.19
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 23.9% 21.7% — — 4.60
Charlton Athletic at HT / Charlton Athletic at FT 19.7% 16.8% — — 5.95
Sheffield United at HT / Sheffield United at FT 16.0% 16.8% — — 5.96
Draw at HT / Charlton Athletic at FT 14.0% 12.7% — — 7.90
Draw at HT / Sheffield United at FT 13.5% 12.7% — — 7.90
Charlton Athletic at HT / Draw at FT 5.2% 6.1% — — 16.50
Sheffield United at HT / Draw at FT 4.6% 3.5% — — 28.80
Charlton Athletic at HT / Sheffield United at FT 1.6% 3.5% — — 28.91
Sheffield United at HT / Charlton Athletic at FT 1.5% 3.5% — — 28.92
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Charlton Athletic to score last 44.4% 40.2% — — 2.49
Sheffield United to score last 41.0% 40.1% — — 2.50
No goal scored 14.6% 9.9% — — 10.11
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 85.4% 90.9% — — 1.10
Charlton Athletic to lead by 1 at any time 49.1% 44.4% — — 2.25
Sheffield United to lead by 1 at any time 45.4% 44.3% — — 2.26
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 34.3% 29.9% — — 3.35
Charlton Athletic to lead by 2 at any time 18.5% 14.9% — — 6.71
Sheffield United to lead by 2 at any time 15.9% 14.9% — — 6.73
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 9.5% 6.7% — — 14.86
Charlton Athletic to lead by 3 at any time 5.3% 6.6% — — 15.05
Sheffield United to lead by 3 at any time 4.2% 1.6% — — 60.89
Most corners 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sheffield United most corners 52.0% 51.7% — — 1.94
Charlton Athletic most corners 39.7% 39.3% — — 2.54
Corners level 8.3% 8.3% — — 11.99
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-5 goals 83.6% 83.4% 88.8% 0.94× 1.20
1-4 goals 79.7% 78.7% 83.3% 0.94× 1.27
1-3 goals 70.3% 72.3% 69.1% 1.05× 1.38
2-6 goals 61.6% 63.3% 72.8% 0.87× 1.58
2-5 goals 60.3% 63.3% 70.2% 0.90× 1.58
2-4 goals 56.5% 59.1% 64.7% 0.91× 1.69
1-2 goals 51.9% 53.2% 44.4% 1.20× 1.88
2-3 goals 47.1% 48.5% 50.5% 0.96× 2.06
3-6 goals 33.0% 35.2% 47.2% 0.75× 2.84
3-5 goals 31.7% 35.2% 44.5% 0.79× 2.84
3-4 goals 27.8% 30.2% 39.1% 0.77× 3.31
4-6 goals 14.5% 14.8% 22.4% 0.66× 6.75
4-5 goals 13.2% 14.8% 19.8% 0.75× 6.75
5-6 goals 5.1% 8.9% 8.2% 1.09× 11.29
7+ goals 0.5% 2.5% 1.4% 1.88× 39.23
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Charlton Athletic never behind 40.0% 44.2% — — 2.26
Sheffield United never behind 36.3% 44.0% — — 2.27
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of goals 45.9% 50.9% 49.4% 1.03× 1.96
Even number of goals 54.1% 49.1% 50.6% 0.97× 2.04
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 59.7% 57.8% — — 1.73
Odd goals in 1st half 40.3% 42.2% — — 2.37
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 55.7% 58.9% — — 1.70
Odd goals in 2nd half 44.3% 41.1% — — 2.43
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 5.5 goals 98.2% 95.4% 96.0% 0.99× 1.05
Under 4.5 goals 94.3% 92.3% 90.6% 1.02× 1.08
Over 0.5 goals 85.4% 87.6% 92.7% 0.94× 1.14
Under 3.5 goals 84.9% 82.3% 76.3% 1.08× 1.22
Under 2.5 goals 66.5% 66.3% 51.6% 1.29× 1.51
Over 1.5 goals 62.1% 61.7% 74.1% 0.83× 1.62
Under 1.5 goals 37.9% 38.3% 25.9% 1.48× 2.61
Over 2.5 goals 33.5% 33.7% 48.4% 0.70× 2.97
Over 3.5 goals 15.1% 17.7% 23.7% 0.75× 5.66
Under 0.5 goals 14.6% 12.4% 7.3% 1.70× 8.05
Over 4.5 goals 5.7% 7.7% 9.4% 0.82× 12.96
Over 5.5 goals 1.8% 4.6% 4.0% 1.15× 21.87
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 99.5% 97.2% 98.6% 0.99× 1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 98.1% 97.2% 95.8% 1.01× 1.03
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 93.8% 92.4% 89.0% 1.04× 1.08
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 81.5% 81.1% 68.5% 1.18× 1.23
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 53.1% 51.9% 34.9% 1.49× 1.93
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 46.9% 48.1% 65.1% 0.74× 2.08
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 18.5% 18.9% 31.5% 0.60× 5.28
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 6.2% 7.6% 11.0% 0.69× 13.18
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 1.9% 2.8% 4.2% 0.66× 35.61
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 0.5% 2.8% 1.4% 2.01× 35.65
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half 94.5% 92.8% — — 1.08
Under 1.5 in 1st half 78.8% 78.6% — — 1.27
Over 0.5 in 1st half 56.9% 63.8% — — 1.57
Under 0.5 in 1st half 43.1% 36.2% — — 2.76
Over 1.5 in 1st half 21.2% 21.4% — — 4.67
Over 2.5 in 1st half 5.5% 7.2% — — 13.89
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 88.1% 85.5% — — 1.17
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 69.1% 68.8% — — 1.45
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 65.9% 68.6% — — 1.46
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 34.1% 31.4% — — 3.18
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 30.9% 31.2% — — 3.20
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 11.9% 14.5% — — 6.90
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sheffield United not to score in both halves 85.5% 85.4% — — 1.17
Charlton Athletic not to score in both halves 83.4% 84.2% — — 1.19
Charlton Athletic to score in both halves 16.6% 15.8% — — 6.34
Sheffield United to score in both halves 14.5% 14.6% — — 6.85
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams score 42.5% 46.6% 54.4% 0.86× 2.15
Only Charlton Athletic scores 22.9% 22.3% 23.3% 0.96× 4.49
Only Sheffield United scores 20.0% 22.3% 15.2% 1.46× 4.49
Neither team scores 14.6% 11.0% 7.3% 1.51× 9.06
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 2 goals 28.7% 24.9% 25.7% 0.97× 4.02
Exactly 1 goals 23.3% 22.6% 18.7% 1.21× 4.43
Exactly 3 goals 18.4% 17.5% 24.8% 0.70× 5.73
Exactly 0 goals 14.6% 12.1% 7.3% 1.66× 8.25
Exactly 4 goals 9.4% 7.6% 14.4% 0.53× 13.14
Exactly 5 goals 3.8% 4.5% 5.5% 0.81× 22.36
6 or more goals 1.8% 4.5% 4.0% 1.12× 22.39
Total goals 1st half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
No goals in 1st half 43.1% 39.4% — — 2.54
1 goal in 1st half 35.8% 37.3% — — 2.68
2 goals in 1st half 15.7% 15.5% — — 6.43
3+ goals in 1st half 5.5% 7.2% — — 13.89
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1 goal in 2nd half 35.1% 40.0% — — 2.50
2+ goals in 2nd half 34.1% 33.8% — — 2.96
No goals in 2nd half 30.9% 33.7% — — 2.97
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sheffield United not to win both halves 93.6% 94.2% — — 1.06
Charlton Athletic not to win both halves 92.1% 94.1% — — 1.06
Charlton Athletic to win both halves 7.9% 5.9% — — 17.02
Sheffield United to win both halves 6.4% 5.8% — — 17.13
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sheffield United to win neither half 56.4% 59.1% — — 1.69
Charlton Athletic to win neither half 52.5% 54.3% — — 1.84
Charlton Athletic to win either half 47.5% 45.7% — — 2.19
Sheffield United to win either half 43.6% 40.9% — — 2.45
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sheffield United not to win to nil 80.0% 78.1% 84.8% 0.92× 1.28
Charlton Athletic not to win to nil 77.1% 78.1% 76.7% 1.02× 1.28
Charlton Athletic to win to nil 22.9% 21.9% 23.3% 0.94× 4.57
Sheffield United to win to nil 20.0% 21.9% 15.2% 1.44× 4.57
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw 33.7% 27.7% 27.6% 1.00× 3.61
Charlton Athletic by 1 20.6% 24.1% 24.2% 1.00× 4.15
Sheffield United by 1 19.0% 17.1% 17.4% 0.98× 5.87
Charlton Athletic by 2 10.2% 11.7% 11.3% 1.04× 8.51
Sheffield United by 2 8.7% 7.2% 8.6% 0.84× 13.90
Charlton Athletic by 3+ 4.4% 2.7% 8.1% 0.34× 36.79
Sheffield United by 3+ 3.4% 2.7% 3.2% 0.84× 36.83
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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