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Chelsea v Arsenal — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 30 November 2025 · ENG-Premier League · 2526

Premier League xG Prediction generated

Chelsea
1–1
0.79 – 1.23 xG
Arsenal
Shots
11 – 8
On target
4 – 4
Shots in box
6 – 6
xG per shot
0.07 – 0.15
Set-piece xG
0.33 – 0.00
Goals − xG
+0.21 – -0.23

AI prediction

ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.
Chelsea win
34.5%
Draw
28.3%
Arsenal win
37.3%

Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.

Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Chelsea are finishing below their chances — 3.3 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 4.6 goals above expected, which tends to correct.

LLLLLDWLWW last 10 scored 12 from 15.3 xG conceded 22 from 17.4 xG

Arsenal are finishing sharply below their chances — 6.0 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.

WLLWWWWWWW last 10 scored 16 from 22.0 xG conceded 5 from 10.1 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTSOutcome
ai-blend-oos 1.15–1.20 0% 0% 0% Away ✗
dc-xg-oos 1.18–1.69 1-1 11% 54% 56% Away ✗

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.00.30.71.01.40'15'30'45'60'75'90'Trevoh Chalobah 47' — goalMikel Merino 58' — goal
Chelsea 0.79 xGArsenal 1.23 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Bukayo Saka 12' — Saved Shot (0.27 xG, Open Play)Pedro Neto 15' — Blocked Shot (0.10 xG, Open Play)Estêvão 17' — Missed Shot (0.09 xG, Open Play)Estêvão 18' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Enzo Fernández 31' — Saved Shot (0.09 xG, Open Play)Gabriel Martinelli 45' — Saved Shot (0.08 xG, Open Play)Reece James 45' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)João Pedro 46' — Saved Shot (0.22 xG, Set Piece)Trevoh Chalobah 47' — Goal (0.03 xG, From Corner)Bukayo Saka 49' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Mikel Merino 58' — Goal (0.54 xG, Open Play)Pedro Neto 70' — Missed Shot (0.08 xG, Open Play)Liam Delap 77' — Saved Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Wesley Fofana 77' — Missed Shot (0.07 xG, Set Piece)Bukayo Saka 78' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Pedro Neto 86' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Mikel Merino 87' — Saved Shot (0.08 xG, Open Play)Jurriën Timber 93' — Missed Shot (0.15 xG, Open Play)Mikel Merino 93' — Missed Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)
Chelsea attacking right Arsenal attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
12' Arsenal Bukayo Saka 0.27 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Eberechi Eze
15' Chelsea Pedro Neto 0.10 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Estêvão
17' Chelsea Estêvão 0.09 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot —
18' Chelsea Estêvão 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Malo Gusto
31' Chelsea Enzo Fernández 0.09 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Estêvão
45' Arsenal Gabriel Martinelli 0.08 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Declan Rice
45' Chelsea Reece James 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Estêvão
46' Chelsea João Pedro 0.22 Set Piece — Saved Shot Reece James
47' Chelsea Trevoh Chalobah 0.03 From Corner — Goal Reece James
49' Arsenal Bukayo Saka 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Martín Zubimendi
58' Arsenal Mikel Merino 0.54 Open Play — Goal Bukayo Saka
70' Chelsea Pedro Neto 0.08 Open Play — Missed Shot Marc Cucurella
77' Chelsea Liam Delap 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Marc Cucurella
77' Chelsea Wesley Fofana 0.07 Set Piece Right Foot Missed Shot Enzo Fernández
78' Arsenal Bukayo Saka 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot —
86' Chelsea Pedro Neto 0.04 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Robert Sánchez
87' Arsenal Mikel Merino 0.08 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Viktor Gyokeres
93' Arsenal Jurriën Timber 0.15 Open Play — Missed Shot Piero Hincapié
93' Arsenal Mikel Merino 0.05 Open Play — Missed Shot Bukayo Saka

Players

Arsenal

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Mikel Merino FW 90 1 0 3 0 0.67 0.00 0.72
Bukayo Saka FWR 90 0 1 3 2 0.32 0.59 0.99
Jurriën Timber DR 90 0 0 1 0 0.15 0.00 0.31
David Raya GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.11
Declan Rice MC 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.08 0.85
Cristhian Mosquera DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.25
Piero Hincapié DC 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.15 0.71
Eberechi Eze MC 77 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.27 0.35
Gabriel Martinelli FWL 62 0 0 1 0 0.08 0.00 0.11
Martín Zubimendi MC 62 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.02 0.02
Riccardo Calafiori DL 51 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Myles Lewis-Skelly Sub 39 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.18
Noni Madueke Sub 28 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.15
Martin Odegaard Sub 28 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.65
Viktor Gyokeres Sub 13 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.08 0.08

Chelsea

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Pedro Neto AML 90 0 0 3 0 0.22 0.00 0.22
Enzo Fernández AMC 90 0 0 1 1 0.09 0.07 0.19
Wesley Fofana DC 90 0 0 1 0 0.07 0.00 0.00
Trevoh Chalobah DC 90 1 0 1 0 0.03 0.00 0.18
Reece James DMC 90 0 1 1 2 0.02 0.25 0.12
Robert Sánchez GK 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.04 0.13
Marc Cucurella DL 90 0 0 0 2 0.00 0.10 0.10
Malo Gusto DR 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.02 0.18
João Pedro FW 60 0 0 1 0 0.22 0.00 0.00
Estêvão AMR 51 0 0 2 3 0.11 0.21 0.33
Alejandro Garnacho Sub 39 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.08
Moisés Caicedo DMC 37 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.02
Liam Delap Sub 30 0 0 1 0 0.03 0.00 0.03
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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