Chelsea v Aston Villa — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 27 December 2025 · ENG-Premier League · 2526
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
14 – 11
On target
3 – 8
Shots in box
8 – 7
xG per shot
0.14 – 0.21
Set-piece xG
0.81 – 0.26
Goals − xG
-0.97 – -0.32
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Chelsea win
54.0%
Draw
24.1%
Aston Villa win
21.9%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Chelsea are conceding more than the chances against them merit — 2.2 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
LLLLDWLWWL last 10
scored 13
from 14.4 xG
conceded 21
from 18.8 xG
Aston Villa have scored 14 from 15.7 expected and conceded 17 from 15.7 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
DWLLDWWLLD last 10
scored 14
from 15.7 xG
conceded 17
from 15.7 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.72–1.00 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.91–1.25 | 1-1 10% | 61% | 61% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Chelsea 1.97 xGAston Villa 2.32 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Chelsea attacking right
Aston Villa attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1' |
 Chelsea |
Cole Palmer | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Moisés Caicedo |
| 17' |
Chelsea |
Enzo Fernández | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Alejandro Garnacho |
| 20' |
Chelsea |
Cole Palmer | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 20' |
Chelsea |
Moisés Caicedo | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 23' |
Chelsea |
João Pedro | 0.54 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Pedro Neto |
| 25' |
Chelsea |
Enzo Fernández | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Alejandro Garnacho |
| 33' |
Chelsea |
Reece James | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Pedro Neto |
| 36' |
Chelsea |
João Pedro | 0.74 | From Corner | Right Foot | Goal | Reece James |
| 39' |
Chelsea |
João Pedro | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Reece James |
| 41' |
Chelsea |
Cole Palmer | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 50' |
 Aston Villa |
Morgan Rogers | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Emiliano Buendía |
| 54' |
Aston Villa |
Emiliano Buendía | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Morgan Rogers |
| 57' |
Chelsea |
Alejandro Garnacho | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Marc Cucurella |
| 60' |
Aston Villa |
Boubacar Kamara | 0.59 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 62' |
Aston Villa |
Ollie Watkins | 0.48 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Morgan Rogers |
| 62' |
Aston Villa |
Ollie Watkins | 0.55 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 65' |
Aston Villa |
Ian Maatsen | 0.27 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Morgan Rogers |
| 69' |
Aston Villa |
Ollie Watkins | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Matthew Cash |
| 72' |
Aston Villa |
Morgan Rogers | 0.04 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 75' |
Chelsea |
Reece James | 0.07 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 80' |
Chelsea |
Jamie Bynoe-Gittens | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Enzo Fernández |
| 83' |
Aston Villa |
Ollie Watkins | 0.10 | From Corner | — | Goal | Youri Tielemans |
| 86' |
Chelsea |
Pedro Neto | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Reece James |
| 87' |
Aston Villa |
Jadon Sancho | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Youri Tielemans |
| 90' |
Aston Villa |
Lucas Digne | 0.12 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
Players
Aston Villa
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morgan Rogers FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.06 | 0.77 | 0.79 |
| Youri Tielemans MC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.17 | 0.35 |
| Matthew Cash DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.34 |
| Ezri Konsa Ngoyo DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.27 |
| Emiliano Martinez GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.27 |
| Victor Lindelöf DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.27 |
| Boubacar Kamara MC | 85 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.59 | 0.00 | 1.35 |
| Ian Maatsen DL | 85 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.27 | 0.00 | 0.28 |
| Emiliano Buendía ML | 61 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.03 |
| Donyell Malen FW | 61 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| John McGinn MR | 61 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Ollie Watkins Sub | 29 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1.20 | 0.00 | 1.10 |
| Jadon Sancho Sub | 29 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.33 |
| Amadou Onana Sub | 29 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.82 |
| Lucas Digne Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Lamare Bogarde Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Chelsea
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Enzo Fernández DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.16 | 0.10 | 0.84 |
| Reece James DR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0.10 | 0.80 | 0.78 |
| Moisés Caicedo DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.06 | 0.91 |
| Pedro Neto AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.02 | 0.56 | 0.78 |
| Robert Sánchez GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.77 |
| Trevoh Chalobah DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.85 |
| Benoit Badiashile Mukinayi DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.70 |
| Cole Palmer AMC | 74 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.20 | 0.00 | 0.29 |
| João Pedro FW | 71 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1.32 | 0.00 | 0.64 |
| Alejandro Garnacho AML | 71 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.04 | 0.16 | 0.77 |
| Marc Cucurella DL | 71 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.61 |
| Jamie Bynoe-Gittens Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Liam Delap Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Malo Gusto Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Estêvão Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |