Chelsea v Bournemouth — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 10 October 2026 · ENG-Premier League · 2627

Premier League xG Prediction generated 18 Sep 2026, 10:37 UTC

Chelsea

5–1

1.37 – 1.68 xG

Bournemouth

Shots

10 – 9

On target

6 – 4

Shots in box

7 – 6

xG per shot

0.14 – 0.19

Set-piece xG

0.08 – 1.23

Goals − xG

+3.62 – -0.68

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Final pre-match price, taken 10 Oct, 10:59 · 3h before kick-off

Chelsea win

45.3%

model 43.1%

Draw

23.8%

model 23.4%

Bournemouth win

30.9%

model 33.4%

452431

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (624 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 10.5%
2-1 8.9%
1-2 7.7%
1-0 7.2%
2-2 6.5%

Goals

Over 2.5	61.1%	Under 2.5	38.9%
BTTS yes	62.8%	BTTS no	37.2%
Chelsea 1+	81.6%	Chelsea 2+	50.4%
Bournemouth 1+	76.9%	Bournemouth 2+	43.1%

Expected goals 1.69 – 1.47. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

98/100

Data quality

100/100

Model agreement

98%

★ Best pick

Under 2.5 in 2nd half

Over/Under 2HT · usually 76%

82.0% fair odds 1.22

moderate signal · 1571 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Chelsea not to win to nil

Win to nil · usually 80%

83.2% fair odds 1.20

moderate signal · 1180 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Chelsea have created 1.40 xG a match over their last five while Bournemouth have allowed 1.34.
At home Chelsea average 1.92 xG a match.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Chelsea have an estimated 45.3% win probability, against 30.9% for Bournemouth and 23.8% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.69 for Chelsea and 1.47 for Bournemouth.

Why Chelsea

Chelsea have created 1.40 xG a match over their last five while Bournemouth have allowed 1.34. At home Chelsea average 1.92 xG a match.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 23.8%. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.69 to 1.47. Draws run at 25% in this competition.

Why Bournemouth can win

Bournemouth carry the stronger rating, 1652 Elo against 1588. Bournemouth have created 1.64 xG a match over their last five while Chelsea have allowed 2.02. Away from home Bournemouth average 1.61 xG a match. Their last eleven was closer to full strength: Chelsea were missing 1.36 expected goal involvements a match against 0.58.

Key players

Chelsea's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: João Pedro (0.56), Cole Palmer (0.47), Enzo Fernández (0.43). Bournemouth's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Marcus Tavernier (0.46), Evanilson (0.40), Rayan (0.32).

Availability

2 of Chelsea's top three contributors did not start their last match. 64% of Chelsea's last eleven are new to the club this window.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Chelsea: 47% possession, 14.6 shots a match, 14.2 faced, 0.42 xG a match from set pieces. Bournemouth: 48% possession, 13.6 shots a match, 10.8 faced, 0.45 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-10 14:48 · team_stats 2026-10-10 06:03 · availability 2026-10-10 14:59 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Chelsea are the model's most likely outcome at 45.3%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 10.5%. Confidence 98/100, data quality 100/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Chelsea are finishing sharply above their chances — 5.6 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off.

WLWWLDLWWL last 10 scored 20 from 14.4 xG conceded 18 from 18.0 xG

Bournemouth are finishing sharply below their chances — 6.2 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.

WDDLDDDLLW last 10 scored 12 from 18.2 xG conceded 15 from 13.0 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS	Outcome
ai-blend	432333	1.69–1.47	0%	0%	0%	Home ✓
dc-goals	422632	1.69–1.45	1-1 12%	61%	63%	Home ✓
dc-xg	452331	1.77–1.44	1-1 10%	62%	63%	Home ✓
dc-xg-oos	462331	1.80–1.45	1-1 10%	63%	64%	Home ✓

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chelsea to win	51.3%	51.5%	42.9%	1.20×	1.94
Bournemouth to win	27.9%	27.9%	32.4%	0.86×	3.58
Draw	20.7%	24.4%	24.8%	0.98×	4.09

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chelsea & both teams score	32.7%	29.6%	22.7%	1.30×	3.38
Chelsea & not both score	18.6%	18.0%	20.2%	0.89×	5.57
Draw & both teams score	18.3%	18.0%	19.9%	0.90×	5.57
Bournemouth & both teams score	18.7%	18.0%	15.5%	1.16×	5.57
Bournemouth & not both score	9.2%	8.3%	16.9%	0.49×	12.00
Draw & not both score	2.5%	4.9%	5.0%	0.97×	20.49

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chelsea & over 1.5	46.1%	45.0%	36.5%	1.23×	2.22
Chelsea & over 2.5	40.4%	40.2%	30.1%	1.34×	2.49
Chelsea & over 3.5	27.5%	26.1%	16.3%	1.60×	3.84
Chelsea & under 3.5	23.9%	21.6%	26.7%	0.81×	4.63
Bournemouth & over 1.5	24.1%	21.6%	25.4%	0.85×	4.63
Bournemouth & over 2.5	21.1%	21.6%	20.0%	1.08×	4.63
Draw & over 1.5	18.3%	18.0%	19.9%	0.90×	5.56
Bournemouth & under 3.5	14.8%	12.9%	21.7%	0.59×	7.78
Bournemouth & over 3.5	13.2%	12.9%	10.7%	1.20×	7.78
Chelsea & under 2.5	11.0%	12.9%	12.8%	1.00×	7.78
Draw & under 2.5	10.7%	12.9%	16.4%	0.79×	7.78
Draw & under 3.5	10.7%	12.9%	16.4%	0.79×	7.78
Draw & over 2.5	10.0%	12.9%	8.6%	1.50×	7.78
Draw & over 3.5	10.0%	12.9%	8.6%	1.50×	7.78
Bournemouth & under 2.5	6.8%	7.9%	12.5%	0.63×	12.63
Chelsea & under 1.5	5.3%	7.9%	6.5%	1.23×	12.63
Bournemouth & under 1.5	3.8%	4.8%	7.0%	0.68×	20.84
Draw & under 1.5	2.5%	4.8%	5.0%	0.95×	20.84

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chelsea (1UP)	69.2%	70.1%	61.9%	1.13×	1.43
Bournemouth (1UP)	50.1%	52.6%	51.3%	1.02×	1.90

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chelsea (2UP)	51.3%	55.0%	44.6%	1.23×	1.82
Bournemouth (2UP)	27.9%	25.4%	34.6%	0.73×	3.94

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chelsea to win 2nd half	43.2%	41.7%	36.1%	1.16×	2.40
2nd half drawn	30.8%	34.0%	31.1%	1.09×	2.94
Bournemouth to win 2nd half	25.9%	26.5%	32.9%	0.81×	3.77

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bournemouth under 1.5 in 2nd half	80.7%	84.1%	79.9%	1.05×	1.19
Bournemouth over 0.5 in 2nd half	55.3%	55.0%	57.6%	0.95×	1.82
Bournemouth under 0.5 in 2nd half	44.7%	45.0%	42.4%	1.06×	2.22
Bournemouth over 1.5 in 2nd half	19.3%	15.9%	20.1%	0.79×	6.30

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chelsea under 1.5 in 2nd half	68.7%	70.9%	75.4%	0.94×	1.41
Chelsea over 0.5 in 2nd half	67.8%	70.8%	58.2%	1.22×	1.41
Chelsea under 0.5 in 2nd half	32.2%	29.2%	41.8%	0.70×	3.43
Chelsea over 1.5 in 2nd half	31.3%	29.1%	24.6%	1.18×	3.44

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bournemouth (+2.5)	84.7%	82.5%	89.2%	0.93×	1.21
Chelsea (+0.5)	72.1%	73.6%	67.6%	1.09×	1.36
Bournemouth (+1.5)	69.3%	68.7%	76.1%	0.90×	1.46
Chelsea (-0.5)	51.3%	52.5%	42.9%	1.22×	1.91
Bournemouth (+0.5)	48.7%	47.5%	57.1%	0.83×	2.10
Chelsea (-1.5)	30.7%	31.3%	23.9%	1.31×	3.19
Bournemouth (-0.5)	27.9%	26.4%	32.4%	0.81×	3.79
Chelsea (-2.5)	15.3%	17.5%	10.8%	1.62×	5.72

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bournemouth to concede	88.3%	86.3%	78.1%	1.11×	1.16
Bournemouth clean sheet	11.7%	13.7%	21.9%	0.62×	7.32

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bournemouth to concede in 1st half	63.8%	64.8%	51.2%	1.27×	1.54
Bournemouth clean sheet in 1st half	36.2%	35.2%	48.8%	0.72×	2.84

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bournemouth to concede in 2nd half	67.8%	66.1%	58.2%	1.13×	1.51
Bournemouth clean sheet in 2nd half	32.2%	33.9%	41.8%	0.81×	2.95

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bournemouth under 6.5 corners	83.8%	81.4%	—	—	1.23
Bournemouth under 5.5 corners	74.0%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
Bournemouth over 2.5 corners	72.6%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
Bournemouth under 4.5 corners	60.7%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Bournemouth over 3.5 corners	55.5%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Bournemouth under 3.5 corners	44.5%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Bournemouth over 4.5 corners	39.3%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Bournemouth under 2.5 corners	27.4%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
Bournemouth over 5.5 corners	26.0%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
Bournemouth over 6.5 corners	16.2%	18.6%	—	—	5.37

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bournemouth under 3.5 goals	92.7%	92.3%	94.5%	0.98×	1.08
Bournemouth under 2.5 goals	79.5%	76.3%	84.9%	0.90×	1.31
Bournemouth over 0.5 goals	78.9%	76.3%	74.8%	1.02×	1.31
Bournemouth under 1.5 goals	53.9%	53.5%	60.6%	0.88×	1.87
Bournemouth over 1.5 goals	46.1%	46.5%	39.4%	1.18×	2.15
Bournemouth under 0.5 goals	21.1%	23.7%	25.2%	0.94×	4.22
Bournemouth over 2.5 goals	20.5%	23.7%	15.1%	1.57×	4.22
Bournemouth over 3.5 goals	7.3%	7.7%	5.5%	1.41×	13.02

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bournemouth under 1.5 in 1st half	82.6%	83.1%	89.1%	0.93×	1.20
Bournemouth over 0.5 in 1st half	52.8%	55.3%	40.4%	1.37×	1.81
Bournemouth under 0.5 in 1st half	47.2%	44.7%	59.6%	0.75×	2.24
Bournemouth over 1.5 in 1st half	17.4%	16.9%	10.9%	1.55×	5.93

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bournemouth scores equally in both	35.9%	36.9%	37.7%	0.98×	2.71
Bournemouth scores more in 2nd half	33.6%	33.5%	40.6%	0.83×	2.98
Bournemouth scores more in 1st half	30.5%	33.4%	21.8%	1.53×	2.99

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chelsea (away no bet)	71.2%	68.2%	63.3%	1.08×	1.47
Draw (away no bet)	28.8%	31.8%	36.7%	0.87×	3.14

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bournemouth even goals	52.2%	52.6%	53.6%	0.98×	1.90
Bournemouth odd goals	47.8%	47.4%	46.4%	1.02×	2.11

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	69.6%	71.1%	80.1%	0.89×	1.41
Both halves over 1.5 goals	30.4%	28.9%	19.9%	1.45×	3.46

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	80.0%	72.8%	70.1%	1.04×	1.37
Both halves under 1.5 goals	20.0%	27.2%	29.9%	0.91×	3.67

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	71.6%	71.5%	61.3%	1.17×	1.40
Chelsea to score 2+ in a row	51.9%	50.9%	39.0%	1.30×	1.97
Bournemouth to score 2+ in a row	32.8%	29.3%	29.8%	0.98×	3.42
Either team to score 3+ in a row	32.1%	29.2%	26.2%	1.12×	3.42
Chelsea to score 3+ in a row	22.9%	19.6%	16.4%	1.19×	5.11
Bournemouth to score 3+ in a row	10.1%	12.0%	10.2%	1.18×	8.35

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chelsea corners (+3.5)	93.3%	89.6%	—	—	1.12
Chelsea corners (+2.5)	89.4%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Chelsea corners (+1.5)	83.8%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Bournemouth corners (+3.5)	61.4%	61.9%	—	—	1.62
Chelsea corners (-1.5)	58.3%	57.2%	—	—	1.75
Bournemouth corners (+2.5)	51.7%	52.4%	—	—	1.91
Chelsea corners (-2.5)	48.3%	47.6%	—	—	2.10
Bournemouth corners (+1.5)	41.7%	42.8%	—	—	2.34
Chelsea corners (-3.5)	38.6%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Bournemouth corners (-1.5)	16.2%	20.2%	—	—	4.94
Bournemouth corners (-2.5)	10.6%	15.5%	—	—	6.45
Bournemouth corners (-3.5)	6.7%	10.4%	—	—	9.58

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
12+ corners	39.8%	34.0%	—	—	2.94
0-8 corners	31.5%	33.2%	—	—	3.01
9-11 corners	28.7%	31.2%	—	—	3.20

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 7.5 corners	77.5%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Over 8.5 corners	68.5%	67.8%	—	—	1.48
Under 12.5 corners	68.6%	67.8%	—	—	1.48
Under 11.5 corners	60.2%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Over 9.5 corners	58.9%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Under 10.5 corners	50.9%	53.1%	—	—	1.88
Over 10.5 corners	49.1%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Under 9.5 corners	41.1%	42.1%	—	—	2.38
Over 11.5 corners	39.8%	36.8%	—	—	2.72
Under 8.5 corners	31.5%	32.2%	—	—	3.10
Over 12.5 corners	31.4%	32.2%	—	—	3.10
Under 7.5 corners	22.5%	23.4%	—	—	4.27

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.1%	—	—	2.00
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.9%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-1	8.8%	7.4%	8.9%	0.83×	13.50
Any other score	8.7%	7.4%	4.3%	1.73×	13.50
1-1	8.2%	7.4%	11.4%	0.65×	13.50
2-2	6.9%	7.4%	7.6%	0.97×	13.50
1-0	5.3%	7.4%	6.5%	1.15×	13.50
1-2	6.4%	7.4%	6.9%	1.08×	13.50
2-0	5.7%	7.4%	6.5%	1.15×	13.50
3-1	6.3%	7.4%	5.4%	1.38×	13.50
3-2	4.9%	1.7%	3.0%	0.57×	58.33
0-0	2.5%	1.7%	5.0%	0.34×	58.34
0-1	3.8%	1.7%	7.0%	0.24×	58.33
0-2	3.0%	1.7%	5.5%	0.31×	58.34
0-3	1.5%	1.7%	2.5%	0.68×	58.34
0-4	0.6%	1.7%	1.1%	1.57×	58.35
1-3	3.3%	1.7%	3.2%	0.54×	58.33
1-4	1.3%	1.7%	1.4%	1.20×	58.35
2-3	3.6%	1.7%	2.5%	0.68×	58.33
2-4	1.4%	1.7%	0.7%	2.55×	58.35
3-0	4.1%	1.7%	5.1%	0.34×	58.33
3-3	2.6%	1.7%	0.8%	2.27×	58.34
3-4	1.0%	1.7%	0.5%	3.40×	58.35
4-0	2.2%	1.7%	1.3%	1.28×	58.34
4-1	3.4%	1.7%	2.3%	0.76×	58.33
4-2	2.6%	1.7%	1.3%	1.28×	58.34
4-3	1.4%	1.7%	0.9%	1.86×	58.35
4-4	0.5%	1.7%	0.3%	5.11×	58.35

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chelsea (2nd half DNB)	62.5%	61.0%	52.3%	1.17×	1.64
Bournemouth (2nd half DNB)	37.5%	39.0%	47.7%	0.82×	2.57

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chelsea leading at HT (DNB)	60.8%	64.9%	59.6%	1.09×	1.54
Bournemouth leading at HT (DNB)	39.2%	35.1%	40.4%	0.87×	2.85

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chelsea or Bournemouth (12)	79.3%	75.6%	75.2%	1.01×	1.32
Chelsea or draw (1X)	72.1%	72.1%	67.6%	1.07×	1.39
Bournemouth or draw (X2)	48.7%	48.5%	57.1%	0.85×	2.06

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chelsea or draw at HT	73.7%	74.8%	75.6%	0.99×	1.34
Chelsea or Bournemouth at HT	67.2%	66.5%	60.3%	1.10×	1.50
Bournemouth or draw at HT	59.2%	57.0%	64.0%	0.89×	1.76

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chelsea or draw (1UP)	72.1%	79.5%	74.2%	1.07×	1.26
Bournemouth or draw (1UP)	50.1%	59.1%	65.3%	0.91×	1.69

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chelsea or draw in 2nd half	74.1%	73.5%	67.1%	1.09×	1.36
Chelsea or Bournemouth in 2nd half	69.2%	66.0%	68.9%	0.96×	1.52
Bournemouth or draw in 2nd half	56.8%	58.3%	63.9%	0.91×	1.72

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	53.6%	50.3%	57.0%	0.88×	1.99
Neither half drawn	46.4%	49.7%	43.0%	1.16×	2.01

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chelsea (DNB)	64.8%	62.7%	57.0%	1.10×	1.60
Bournemouth (DNB)	35.2%	37.3%	43.0%	0.87×	2.68

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chelsea to score first	56.6%	62.2%	51.8%	1.20×	1.61
Bournemouth to score first	41.0%	42.0%	43.2%	0.97×	2.38
No goal scored	2.5%	4.3%	5.0%	0.86×	23.06

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	69.7%	58.4%	58.0%	1.01×	1.71
Not both teams to score	30.3%	41.6%	42.0%	0.99×	2.41

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	61.5%	50.4%	46.6%	1.08×	1.98
Not both score & under 2.5	20.2%	27.7%	30.2%	0.92×	3.61
Not both score & over 2.5	10.1%	12.4%	11.9%	1.04×	8.10
Both score & under 2.5	8.2%	8.3%	11.4%	0.73×	12.04

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	70.9%	80.5%	82.0%	0.98×	1.24
Both teams to score 2+	29.1%	19.5%	18.0%	1.09×	5.13

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	62.5%	65.3%	68.8%	0.95×	1.53
Both teams to score in 2nd half	37.5%	34.7%	31.2%	1.11×	2.88

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	41.5%	49.6%	56.0%	0.89×	2.02
Both score 2nd half only	24.9%	20.8%	24.5%	0.85×	4.80
Both score 1st half only	21.0%	20.7%	12.9%	1.60×	4.83
Both score in both halves	12.6%	10.7%	6.8%	1.57×	9.37

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	66.3%	71.0%	80.4%	0.88×	1.41
Both teams to score by HT	33.7%	29.0%	19.6%	1.48×	3.45

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	71.0%	73.0%	61.7%	1.18×	1.37
A half without a goal	29.0%	27.0%	38.3%	0.71×	3.70

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
4-6 goals	42.5%	42.1%	32.6%	1.29×	2.38
2-3 goals	37.8%	35.1%	46.3%	0.76×	2.85
0-1 goals	11.6%	16.9%	18.4%	0.92×	5.93
7+ goals	8.2%	7.6%	2.9%	2.68×	13.10

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bournemouth to score exactly 1	32.8%	33.8%	35.5%	0.95×	2.96
Bournemouth to score exactly 2	25.5%	27.4%	24.4%	1.12×	3.65
Bournemouth to score exactly 0	21.1%	22.3%	25.2%	0.89×	4.49
Bournemouth to score 3+	20.5%	22.3%	15.1%	1.48×	4.49

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chelsea to score 3+	36.3%	35.6%	22.8%	1.56×	2.81
Chelsea to score exactly 2	26.9%	26.5%	26.1%	1.02×	3.77
Chelsea to score exactly 1	25.1%	26.5%	29.4%	0.90×	3.77
Chelsea to score exactly 0	11.7%	14.3%	21.9%	0.65×	6.98

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chelsea leading at HT	40.8%	43.0%	36.0%	1.20×	2.32
Draw at HT	32.8%	33.5%	39.7%	0.84×	2.99
Bournemouth leading at HT	26.3%	25.2%	24.4%	1.03×	3.97

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chelsea -1: 2	48.7%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Chelsea -1: 1	30.7%	29.9%	—	—	3.34
Chelsea -1: X	20.7%	23.5%	—	—	4.25

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bournemouth (0:1)	48.7%	46.1%	57.1%	0.81×	2.17
Chelsea (0:1)	30.7%	29.9%	23.9%	1.25×	3.34
Draw (0:1)	20.7%	24.2%	19.0%	1.27×	4.13

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bournemouth (0:2)	69.3%	72.4%	76.1%	0.95×	1.38
Chelsea (0:2)	15.3%	15.2%	10.8%	1.41×	6.56
Draw (0:2)	15.3%	15.2%	13.2%	1.16×	6.56

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bournemouth (0:3)	84.7%	85.4%	89.2%	0.96×	1.17
Draw (0:3)	8.9%	5.8%	7.6%	0.76×	17.24
Chelsea (0:3)	6.5%	5.8%	3.3%	1.77×	17.28

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bournemouth (0:4)	93.5%	94.6%	96.7%	0.98×	1.06
Draw (0:4)	4.1%	1.2%	2.0%	0.60×	82.38
Chelsea (0:4)	2.3%	1.2%	1.3%	0.90×	82.59

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chelsea (1:0)	72.1%	72.4%	67.6%	1.07×	1.38
Draw (1:0)	15.0%	12.8%	16.8%	0.76×	7.83
Bournemouth (1:0)	12.9%	12.8%	15.7%	0.81×	7.84

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chelsea (2:0)	87.1%	88.4%	84.3%	1.05×	1.13
Draw (2:0)	8.0%	6.4%	9.2%	0.69×	15.67
Bournemouth (2:0)	4.9%	2.3%	6.5%	0.35×	43.39

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	42.7%	49.4%	49.6%	1.00×	2.03
1st half highest scoring	35.8%	35.8%	25.9%	1.38×	2.79
Halves equal	21.5%	24.3%	24.6%	0.99×	4.12

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chelsea to concede	78.9%	76.2%	74.8%	1.02×	1.31
Chelsea clean sheet	21.1%	23.8%	25.2%	0.95×	4.20

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chelsea to concede in 1st half	52.8%	55.3%	40.4%	1.37×	1.81
Chelsea clean sheet in 1st half	47.2%	44.7%	59.6%	0.75×	2.24

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chelsea to concede in 2nd half	55.3%	55.2%	57.6%	0.96×	1.81
Chelsea clean sheet in 2nd half	44.7%	44.8%	42.4%	1.06×	2.23

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chelsea over 2.5 corners	91.1%	89.2%	—	—	1.12
Chelsea over 3.5 corners	82.3%	81.0%	—	—	1.24
Chelsea over 4.5 corners	71.2%	71.9%	—	—	1.39
Chelsea over 5.5 corners	58.9%	57.6%	—	—	1.74
Chelsea under 6.5 corners	53.3%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
Chelsea over 6.5 corners	46.8%	47.4%	—	—	2.11
Chelsea under 5.5 corners	41.1%	42.4%	—	—	2.36
Chelsea under 4.5 corners	28.8%	28.1%	—	—	3.56
Chelsea under 3.5 corners	17.7%	19.0%	—	—	5.26
Chelsea under 2.5 corners	8.9%	10.8%	—	—	9.30

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chelsea over 0.5 goals	88.3%	87.3%	78.1%	1.12×	1.15
Chelsea under 3.5 goals	83.0%	82.2%	91.6%	0.90×	1.22
Chelsea under 2.5 goals	63.7%	63.6%	77.2%	0.82×	1.57
Chelsea over 1.5 goals	63.3%	63.6%	48.8%	1.30×	1.57
Chelsea under 1.5 goals	36.7%	36.4%	51.2%	0.71×	2.75
Chelsea over 2.5 goals	36.3%	36.4%	22.8%	1.59×	2.75
Chelsea over 3.5 goals	17.0%	17.8%	8.4%	2.13×	5.61
Chelsea under 0.5 goals	11.7%	12.7%	21.9%	0.58×	7.86

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chelsea under 1.5 in 1st half	73.0%	79.1%	84.4%	0.94×	1.26
Chelsea over 0.5 in 1st half	63.8%	64.5%	51.2%	1.26×	1.55
Chelsea under 0.5 in 1st half	36.2%	35.5%	48.8%	0.73×	2.81
Chelsea over 1.5 in 1st half	27.0%	20.9%	15.6%	1.34×	4.78

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chelsea scores more in 2nd half	38.3%	37.8%	36.0%	1.05×	2.65
Chelsea scores more in 1st half	32.3%	33.0%	26.3%	1.25×	3.03
Chelsea scores equally in both	29.5%	28.0%	37.8%	0.74×	3.57

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bournemouth (home no bet)	57.4%	56.4%	56.6%	1.00×	1.77
Draw (home no bet)	42.6%	43.6%	43.4%	1.00×	2.30

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chelsea even goals	50.7%	50.7%	54.0%	0.94×	1.97
Chelsea odd goals	49.3%	49.3%	46.0%	1.07×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 1-0	17.4%	18.9%	21.5%	0.88×	5.29
HT 0-0	17.1%	18.9%	28.0%	0.67×	5.29
HT 1-1	13.0%	10.9%	10.8%	1.00×	9.22
HT 0-1	12.8%	10.9%	14.8%	0.73×	9.22
Any other HT score	12.0%	10.8%	5.4%	2.02×	9.23
HT 2-0	8.8%	7.0%	8.1%	0.86×	14.33
HT 2-1	6.6%	7.0%	3.7%	1.89×	14.37
HT 1-2	4.9%	2.4%	2.9%	0.81×	42.20
HT 0-2	4.8%	2.4%	4.4%	0.53×	42.21
HT 2-2	2.5%	2.4%	1.0%	2.34×	42.36

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chelsea at HT / Chelsea at FT	33.4%	32.3%	26.3%	1.23×	3.10
Bournemouth at HT / Bournemouth at FT	17.1%	16.8%	16.9%	1.00×	5.96
Draw at HT / Chelsea at FT	14.2%	12.7%	13.8%	0.91×	7.90
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	10.1%	12.6%	13.8%	0.92×	7.93
Draw at HT / Bournemouth at FT	8.5%	6.1%	12.2%	0.50×	16.40
Bournemouth at HT / Draw at FT	5.4%	6.1%	4.8%	1.27×	16.49
Chelsea at HT / Draw at FT	5.2%	6.1%	6.5%	0.94×	16.50
Bournemouth at HT / Chelsea at FT	3.7%	3.5%	2.9%	1.18×	28.86
Chelsea at HT / Bournemouth at FT	2.3%	3.5%	3.4%	1.01×	28.91

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chelsea to score last	56.6%	56.1%	50.0%	1.12×	1.78
Bournemouth to score last	41.0%	40.1%	45.1%	0.89×	2.49
No goal scored	2.5%	4.3%	5.0%	0.86×	23.06

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	97.5%	95.6%	95.0%	1.01×	1.05
Chelsea to lead by 1 at any time	69.2%	69.6%	61.9%	1.12×	1.44
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	60.3%	60.8%	50.6%	1.20×	1.64
Bournemouth to lead by 1 at any time	50.1%	50.9%	51.3%	0.99×	1.97
Chelsea to lead by 2 at any time	40.0%	39.1%	29.8%	1.31×	2.56
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	26.7%	25.3%	21.2%	1.19×	3.95
Bournemouth to lead by 2 at any time	21.0%	19.6%	21.1%	0.93×	5.09
Chelsea to lead by 3 at any time	19.4%	15.1%	13.2%	1.14×	6.64
Bournemouth to lead by 3 at any time	7.4%	6.7%	8.1%	0.82×	14.93

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chelsea most corners	68.0%	64.5%	—	—	1.55
Bournemouth most corners	23.4%	25.9%	—	—	3.86
Corners level	8.7%	8.4%	—	—	11.96

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	80.5%	83.4%	88.3%	0.94×	1.20
2-6 goals	80.2%	83.4%	78.9%	1.06×	1.20
2-5 goals	71.4%	72.4%	75.0%	0.97×	1.38
1-4 goals	66.2%	68.8%	77.9%	0.88×	1.45
3-6 goals	63.3%	63.4%	55.7%	1.14×	1.58
2-4 goals	57.1%	59.1%	64.5%	0.92×	1.69
3-5 goals	54.5%	53.2%	51.8%	1.03×	1.88
1-3 goals	46.9%	48.5%	59.6%	0.81×	2.06
4-6 goals	42.5%	43.6%	32.6%	1.34×	2.29
3-4 goals	40.2%	43.6%	41.4%	1.05×	2.29
2-3 goals	37.8%	39.2%	46.3%	0.85×	2.55
4-5 goals	33.6%	35.2%	28.8%	1.22×	2.84
1-2 goals	26.0%	30.3%	36.6%	0.83×	3.31
5-6 goals	23.2%	24.5%	14.4%	1.70×	4.08
7+ goals	8.2%	8.9%	2.9%	3.12×	11.25

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chelsea never behind	47.4%	56.5%	48.7%	1.16×	1.77
Bournemouth never behind	28.3%	30.2%	38.1%	0.79×	3.31

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	50.0%	50.9%	49.2%	1.04×	1.96
Even number of goals	50.0%	49.1%	50.8%	0.97×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	51.5%	51.6%	53.6%	0.96×	1.94
Odd goals in 1st half	48.5%	48.4%	46.4%	1.04×	2.07

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	51.0%	51.9%	51.8%	1.00×	1.93
Odd goals in 2nd half	49.0%	48.1%	48.2%	1.00×	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	97.5%	95.4%	95.0%	1.00×	1.05
Over 1.5 goals	88.4%	87.6%	81.6%	1.07×	1.14
Under 5.5 goals	83.0%	82.3%	93.3%	0.88×	1.22
Over 2.5 goals	71.5%	72.4%	58.5%	1.24×	1.38
Under 4.5 goals	68.7%	66.3%	82.8%	0.80×	1.51
Over 3.5 goals	50.7%	52.5%	35.4%	1.48×	1.91
Under 3.5 goals	49.3%	47.5%	64.6%	0.74×	2.10
Over 4.5 goals	31.3%	33.7%	17.2%	1.96×	2.97
Under 2.5 goals	28.5%	27.6%	41.5%	0.66×	3.63
Over 5.5 goals	17.0%	17.7%	6.7%	2.63×	5.66
Under 1.5 goals	11.6%	12.4%	18.4%	0.67×	8.07
Under 0.5 goals	2.5%	4.6%	5.0%	0.91×	21.85

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	91.0%	92.4%	97.0%	0.95×	1.08
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	86.1%	86.7%	76.1%	1.14×	1.15
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	80.1%	81.1%	92.5%	0.88×	1.23
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	64.0%	61.9%	46.0%	1.35×	1.62
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	61.1%	61.9%	79.0%	0.78×	1.62
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	38.9%	38.1%	21.0%	1.81×	2.62
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	36.0%	38.1%	54.0%	0.71×	2.63
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	19.9%	18.9%	7.5%	2.53×	5.28
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	13.9%	13.3%	23.9%	0.56×	7.52
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	9.0%	7.6%	3.0%	2.56×	13.17

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 1st half	82.9%	86.0%	72.0%	1.19×	1.16
Under 2.5 in 1st half	74.0%	71.6%	87.2%	0.82×	1.40
Over 1.5 in 1st half	52.7%	54.6%	35.9%	1.52×	1.83
Under 1.5 in 1st half	47.3%	45.4%	64.1%	0.71×	2.20
Over 2.5 in 1st half	26.0%	28.4%	12.8%	2.23×	3.52
Under 0.5 in 1st half	17.1%	14.0%	28.0%	0.50×	7.13

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	85.6%	85.3%	84.6%	1.01×	1.17
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	69.3%	67.8%	75.9%	0.89×	1.48
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	57.7%	55.1%	54.1%	1.02×	1.81
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	42.3%	44.9%	45.9%	0.98×	2.23
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	30.7%	32.2%	24.1%	1.34×	3.10
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	14.4%	14.7%	15.4%	0.96×	6.82

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bournemouth not to score in both halves	70.8%	73.9%	76.8%	0.96×	1.35
Chelsea not to score in both halves	56.8%	57.7%	68.7%	0.84×	1.73
Chelsea to score in both halves	43.2%	42.3%	31.3%	1.35×	2.37
Bournemouth to score in both halves	29.2%	26.1%	23.2%	1.12×	3.83

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	69.7%	59.9%	58.0%	1.03×	1.67
Only Chelsea scores	18.6%	16.0%	20.2%	0.79×	6.23
Only Bournemouth scores	9.2%	7.1%	16.9%	0.42×	14.02
Neither team scores	2.5%	4.6%	5.0%	0.92×	21.58

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 3 goals	20.9%	22.6%	23.2%	0.98×	4.43
Exactly 4 goals	19.3%	17.4%	18.3%	0.95×	5.73
Exactly 2 goals	16.9%	17.4%	23.2%	0.75×	5.74
6 or more goals	17.0%	17.4%	6.7%	2.60×	5.74
Exactly 5 goals	14.3%	12.1%	10.6%	1.15×	8.25
Exactly 1 goals	9.1%	7.6%	13.4%	0.57×	13.13
Exactly 0 goals	2.5%	4.5%	5.0%	0.89×	22.38

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 1st half	30.2%	35.8%	36.2%	0.99×	2.80
2 goals in 1st half	26.7%	28.3%	23.2%	1.22×	3.54
3+ goals in 1st half	26.0%	28.3%	12.8%	2.22×	3.54
No goals in 1st half	17.1%	15.4%	28.0%	0.55×	6.51

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	57.7%	53.6%	54.1%	0.99×	1.87
1 goal in 2nd half	27.9%	29.7%	30.6%	0.97×	3.37
No goals in 2nd half	14.4%	14.6%	15.4%	0.95×	6.87

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bournemouth not to win both halves	93.2%	94.1%	91.3%	1.03×	1.06
Chelsea not to win both halves	82.3%	83.9%	86.6%	0.97×	1.19
Chelsea to win both halves	17.7%	16.1%	13.4%	1.20×	6.23
Bournemouth to win both halves	6.8%	5.9%	8.7%	0.67×	17.01

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chelsea to win either half	66.4%	67.8%	58.6%	1.16×	1.47
Bournemouth to win neither half	54.6%	54.4%	51.4%	1.06×	1.84
Bournemouth to win either half	45.4%	45.6%	48.6%	0.94×	2.19
Chelsea to win neither half	33.6%	32.2%	41.4%	0.78×	3.11

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bournemouth not to win to nil	90.8%	92.1%	83.1%	1.11×	1.09
Chelsea not to win to nil	81.4%	83.1%	79.8%	1.04×	1.20
Chelsea to win to nil	18.6%	16.9%	20.2%	0.84×	5.91
Bournemouth to win to nil	9.2%	7.9%	16.9%	0.47×	12.61

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chelsea by 1	20.7%	24.1%	19.0%	1.27×	4.15
Draw	20.7%	24.1%	24.8%	0.97×	4.15
Chelsea by 2	15.3%	17.0%	13.2%	1.29×	5.87
Chelsea by 3+	15.3%	17.0%	10.8%	1.57×	5.87
Bournemouth by 1	15.0%	11.8%	16.8%	0.70×	8.51
Bournemouth by 2	8.0%	7.2%	9.2%	0.78×	13.89
Bournemouth by 3+	4.9%	2.7%	6.5%	0.42×	36.63

Reading the xG timeline

Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

Chelsea 1.38 xGBournemouth 1.68 xG

Reading the shot map

Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Chelsea attacking right Bournemouth attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

Min	Team	Player	xG	Situation	Body part	Result	Assisted by
1'	Chelsea	Jordan Henderson	0.04	Open Play	Right Foot	Goal	Cole Palmer
2'	Chelsea	Morgan Rogers	0.06	Open Play	Right Foot	Goal	Jordan Henderson
2'	Chelsea	Pedro Neto	0.33	Open Play	Left Foot	Saved Shot	Cole Palmer
5'	Bournemouth	Rayan	0.06	Open Play	Left Foot	Missed Shot	Marcus Tavernier
22'	Chelsea	Jordan Henderson	0.02	Open Play	Right Foot	Missed Shot	—
22'	Chelsea	Pedro Neto	0.12	Open Play	Left Foot	Blocked Shot	—
26'	Chelsea	Morgan Rogers	0.09	Open Play	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	—
35'	Bournemouth	Rayan	0.29	Open Play	Left Foot	Saved Shot	Adrien Truffert
35'	Bournemouth	Ryan Christie	0.01	Open Play	Left Foot	Saved Shot	—
42'	Chelsea	Moisés Caicedo	0.03	Set Piece	—	Missed Shot	Jordan Henderson
45'	Chelsea	João Pedro	0.11	Open Play	Right Foot	Goal	Pedro Neto
46'	Bournemouth	António Silva	0.09	From Corner	—	Saved Shot	Adrien Truffert
50'	Bournemouth	António Silva	0.35	From Corner	—	Blocked Shot	Ryan Christie
50'	Bournemouth	Evanilson	0.79	From Corner	Right Foot	Goal	—
60'	Bournemouth	Evanilson	0.03	Open Play	Left Foot	Missed Shot	Ben Doak
66'	Chelsea	João Pedro	0.53	Open Play	Right Foot	Goal	Pep Chavarría
69'	Chelsea	Jordan Henderson	0.04	Direct Freekick	Right Foot	Goal	—
84'	Bournemouth	Evanilson	0.04	Open Play	—	Missed Shot	Ben Doak
87'	Bournemouth	Alvaro Rodríguez	0.03	Open Play	Left Foot	Blocked Shot	—

Players

Bournemouth

Player	Min	G	Sh	KP	xG	xA	xGChain
Evanilson FW	90	1	3	0	0.85	0.00	0.06
António Silva DC	90	0	2	0	0.44	0.00	0.04
Rayan AMC	90	0	2	0	0.35	0.00	0.35
Tyler Adams DMC	90	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.32
James Hill DC	90	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.04
Djordje Petrovic GK	90	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.29
Adrien Truffert DL	86	0	0	2	0.00	0.38	0.35
Ryan Christie DMC	75	0	1	1	0.01	0.35	0.03
Marcus Tavernier AML	75	0	0	1	0.00	0.06	0.35
Adam Smith DR	74	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
David Brooks AMR	48	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
Ben Doak Sub	42	0	0	2	0.00	0.06	0.06
Juanlu Sanchez Sub	16	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.04
Alvaro Rodríguez Sub	15	0	1	0	0.03	0.00	0.03
Lewis Cook Sub	15	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
Julio Soler Sub	4	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00

Chelsea

Player	Min	G	A	Sh	KP	xG	xA	xGChain
Jordan Henderson MC	90	2	1	3	2	0.10	0.09	0.65
Pep Chavarría DML	90	0	1	0	1	0.00	0.53	0.53
Maxence Lacroix DC	90	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.53
Levi Colwill DC	90	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.53
Josh Acheampong DC	90	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.15
Emiliano Martinez GK	90	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
Cole Palmer AMC	90	0	1	0	2	0.00	0.37	1.01
Morgan Rogers AMC	86	1	0	2	0	0.16	0.00	1.01
Pedro Neto DMR	85	0	1	2	1	0.45	0.11	0.62
João Pedro FW	74	2	0	2	0	0.64	0.00	0.64
Moisés Caicedo MC	74	0	0	1	0	0.03	0.00	0.63
Romeo Lavia Sub	16	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
Marco Palestra Sub	16	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
Danny Welbeck Sub	5	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
Estêvão Sub	4	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
Malo Gusto Sub	1	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00

Chelsea v Bournemouth — Prediction, Odds & Stats

AI prediction

Top 5 scorelines

Goals

Footing

Positive factors

Risk factors

The price

Why Chelsea

Why the draw is live

Why Bournemouth can win

Key players

Availability

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

What the chances say

What the model said

All markets

Expected goals by minute

Shot map

Every shot

Players

Bournemouth

Chelsea

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