Chelsea v Brentford — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 17 January 2026 · ENG-Premier League · 2526
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
6 – 15
On target
2 – 5
Shots in box
4 – 10
xG per shot
0.27 – 0.10
Set-piece xG
0.76 – 0.61
Goals − xG
+0.38 – -1.48
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Chelsea win
46.6%
Draw
27.4%
Brentford win
26.0%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Chelsea are conceding more than the chances against them merit — 2.2 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
LLLLDWLWWL last 10
scored 13
from 14.4 xG
conceded 21
from 18.8 xG
Brentford are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.1 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 6.2 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DDLWLDDWDD last 10
scored 14
from 19.1 xG
conceded 12
from 18.2 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.66–1.20 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.96–1.58 | 1-1 9% | 69% | 68% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Chelsea 1.62 xGBrentford 1.48 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Chelsea attacking right
Brentford attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0' |
 Brentford |
Kevin Schade | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Mikkel Damsgaard |
| 13' |
Brentford |
Kevin Schade | 0.08 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Mathias Jensen |
| 14' |
 Chelsea |
Cole Palmer | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Pedro Neto |
| 25' |
Chelsea |
João Pedro | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Enzo Fernández |
| 28' |
Brentford |
Mikkel Damsgaard | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Vitaly Janelt |
| 33' |
Chelsea |
João Pedro | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Enzo Fernández |
| 35' |
Brentford |
Kevin Schade | 0.08 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Vitaly Janelt |
| 37' |
Brentford |
Mathias Jensen | 0.35 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Shot On Post | Mikkel Damsgaard |
| 39' |
Brentford |
Mathias Jensen | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Michael Kayode |
| 43' |
Chelsea |
Alejandro Garnacho | 0.55 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Pedro Neto |
| 47' |
Brentford |
Yehor Yarmolyuk | 0.14 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Thiago |
| 49' |
Brentford |
Kevin Schade | 0.34 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Mathias Jensen |
| 60' |
Brentford |
Vitaly Janelt | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 72' |
Brentford |
Thiago | 0.08 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Mikkel Damsgaard |
| 75' |
Chelsea |
Cole Palmer | 0.76 | Left Foot | Goal | — | |
| 77' |
Chelsea |
Pedro Neto | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Enzo Fernández |
| 82' |
Brentford |
Thiago | 0.09 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Vitaly Janelt |
| 95' |
Brentford |
Aaron Hickey | 0.03 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Romelle Donovan |
| 95' |
Brentford |
Mathias Jensen | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Vitaly Janelt |
| 96' |
Brentford |
Keane Lewis-Potter | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Michael Kayode |
| 97' |
Brentford |
Romelle Donovan | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Vitaly Janelt |
Players
Brentford
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mathias Jensen AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.44 | 0.42 | 0.70 |
| Thiago FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.16 | 0.14 | 0.31 |
| Yehor Yarmolyuk DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.00 | 0.24 |
| Vitaly Janelt DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0.04 | 0.22 | 0.19 |
| Nathan Collins DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Michael Kayode DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.22 |
| Caoimhin Kelleher GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Kristoffer Ajer DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Kevin Schade AML | 85 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.58 | 0.00 | 0.43 |
| Rico Henry DL | 85 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mikkel Damsgaard AMC | 80 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.02 | 0.51 | 0.24 |
| Dango Ouattara Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Aaron Hickey Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Keane Lewis-Potter Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Romelle Donovan Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.03 |
Chelsea
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cole Palmer AMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.80 | 0.00 | 0.59 |
| Pedro Neto AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.09 | 0.59 | 0.68 |
| Marc Cucurella DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Robert Sánchez GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Trevoh Chalobah DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Moisés Caicedo DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Enzo Fernández DMC | 88 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.27 | 0.86 |
| Reece James DR | 88 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| João Pedro FW | 77 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.18 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Tosin Adarabioyo DC | 61 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Alejandro Garnacho AML | 60 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.55 | 0.00 | 0.67 |
| Andrey Santos Sub | 30 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Wesley Fofana Sub | 29 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Liam Delap Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Josh Acheampong Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jorrel Hato Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |