Chelsea v Brighton and Hove Albion — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 30 August 2026 · ENG-Premier League · 2627
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
18 – 15
On target
5 – 6
Shots in box
15 – 12
xG per shot
0.22 – 0.13
Set-piece xG
0.79 – 0.21
Goals − xG
+0.08 – +1.12
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Chelsea win
43.3%
Draw
27.6%
Brighton and Hove Albion win
29.2%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Chelsea are conceding more than the chances against them merit — 2.2 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
LLLLDWLWWL last 10
scored 13
from 14.4 xG
conceded 21
from 18.8 xG
Brighton and Hove Albion have scored 19 from 19.8 expected and conceded 14 from 15.7 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
WDWLWLLWLD last 10
scored 19
from 19.8 xG
conceded 14
from 15.7 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.55–1.24 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.83–1.38 | 1-1 10% | 62% | 63% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Chelsea 3.92 xGBrighton and Hove Albion 1.88 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Chelsea attacking right
Brighton and Hove Albion attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3' |
 Chelsea |
João Pedro | 0.13 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Pedro Neto |
| 3' |
Chelsea |
Romeo Lavia | 0.64 | From Corner | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 13' |
Chelsea |
Pedro Neto | 0.60 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Morgan Rogers |
| 23' |
 Brighton and Hove Albion |
Maxim De Cuyper | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Charalampos Kostoulas |
| 24' |
Chelsea |
João Pedro | 0.54 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Pedro Neto |
| 28' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Malick Yalcouyé | 0.31 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Diego Gómez |
| 31' |
Chelsea |
João Pedro | 0.50 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Jorrel Hato |
| 33' |
Chelsea |
Cole Palmer | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Morgan Rogers |
| 34' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Charalampos Kostoulas | 0.26 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Malick Yalcouyé |
| 34' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Malick Yalcouyé | 0.34 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 40' |
Chelsea |
João Pedro | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jorrel Hato |
| 40' |
Chelsea |
Morgan Rogers | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 41' |
Chelsea |
Morgan Rogers | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 44' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Diego Gómez | 0.47 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Pascal Groß |
| 46' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Luka Vuskovic | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Ferdi Kadioglu |
| 48' |
Chelsea |
João Pedro | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Emiliano Martinez |
| 53' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Diego Gómez | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 55' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Diego Gómez | 0.17 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Olivier Boscagli |
| 56' |
Chelsea |
Cole Palmer | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Morgan Rogers |
| 57' |
Chelsea |
Cole Palmer | 0.67 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Morgan Rogers |
| 57' |
Chelsea |
Pedro Neto | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Emiliano Martinez |
| 59' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Mats Wieffer | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 61' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Diego Gómez | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Pascal Groß |
| 62' |
Chelsea |
João Pedro | 0.00 | From Corner | Left Foot | Own Goal | — |
| 64' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Diego Gómez | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 68' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Olivier Boscagli | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 70' |
Chelsea |
Maxence Lacroix | 0.01 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Cole Palmer |
| 71' |
Chelsea |
Morgan Rogers | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Cole Palmer |
| 73' |
Chelsea |
Cole Palmer | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | João Pedro |
| 76' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Ferdi Kadioglu | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 85' |
Chelsea |
Valentín Barco | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | João Pedro |
| 93' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Luka Vuskovic | 0.02 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Maxim De Cuyper |
| 95' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Pascal Groß | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Goal | — |
Players
Brighton and Hove Albion
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Diego Gómez AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0.76 | 0.31 | 0.94 |
| Pascal Groß DMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.05 | 0.49 | 0.90 |
| Maxim De Cuyper AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.02 | 0.63 |
| Olivier Boscagli DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.17 | 0.42 |
| Luka Vuskovic DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.37 |
| Ferdi Kadioglu DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.37 |
| Bart Verbruggen GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.31 |
| Lewis Dunk DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.37 |
| Charalampos Kostoulas FW | 82 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.26 | 0.04 | 0.78 |
| Mats Wieffer DR | 82 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.39 |
| Malick Yalcouyé AMC | 76 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.65 | 0.26 | 1.39 |
| Ibrahim Osman Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Costinha Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Promise David Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Chelsea
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| João Pedro FW | 90 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 1.38 | 0.13 | 2.06 |
| Cole Palmer AMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0.91 | 0.11 | 1.62 |
| Morgan Rogers AMC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0.18 | 1.46 | 2.30 |
| Maxence Lacroix DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.62 |
| Malo Gusto MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.59 |
| Jorrel Hato DML | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.59 | 1.72 |
| Emiliano Martinez GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.24 | 0.40 |
| Levi Colwill DC | 74 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.62 |
| Pedro Neto DMR | 70 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.71 | 0.67 | 1.25 |
| Romeo Lavia MC | 70 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.64 | 0.00 | 0.62 |
| Wesley Fofana DC | 70 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.62 |
| Josh Acheampong Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Reece James Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Pep Chavarría Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Moisés Caicedo Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Valentín Barco Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.07 |