Chelsea v Crystal Palace — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Wednesday 2 December 2026 · ENG-Premier League · 2627

Premier League xG Prediction generated 18 Sep 2026, 10:37 UTC

Chelsea

20:00 UTC

Crystal Palace

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 21 Oct, 11:05 · 1,017h before kick-off

Chelsea win

51.2%

model 53.4%

Draw

22.1%

model 21.4%

Crystal Palace win

26.7%

model 25.2%

512227

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (466 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

2-1 9.5%
1-1 9.3%
2-0 7.0%
1-0 6.9%
3-1 6.4%

Goals

Over 2.5	65.7%	Under 2.5	34.3%
BTTS yes	64.3%	BTTS no	35.7%
Chelsea 1+	86.9%	Chelsea 2+	60.3%
Crystal Palace 1+	74.0%	Crystal Palace 2+	39.0%

Expected goals 2.03 – 1.35. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

93/100

Data quality

90/100

Model agreement

98%

★ Best pick

Chelsea to score 2+ in a row

Consecutive goals · usually 39%

52.7% fair odds 1.90

moderate signal · 783 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Over 0.5 in 1st half

Over/Under 1HT · usually 72%

83.9% fair odds 1.19

moderate signal · 387 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Chelsea carry the stronger rating, 1637 Elo against 1529.
Chelsea have created 1.45 xG a match over their last five while Crystal Palace have allowed 2.35.
At home Chelsea average 1.93 xG a match.
Their last eleven was closer to full strength: Crystal Palace were missing 1.13 expected goal involvements a match against 0.74.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Chelsea have an estimated 51.2% win probability, against 26.7% for Crystal Palace and 22.1% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 2.03 for Chelsea and 1.35 for Crystal Palace.

Why Chelsea

Chelsea carry the stronger rating, 1637 Elo against 1529. Chelsea have created 1.45 xG a match over their last five while Crystal Palace have allowed 2.35. At home Chelsea average 1.93 xG a match. Their last eleven was closer to full strength: Crystal Palace were missing 1.13 expected goal involvements a match against 0.74.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 22.1%. Draws run at 25% in this competition.

Why Crystal Palace can win

Crystal Palace have created 1.37 xG a match over their last five while Chelsea have allowed 1.76. Away from home Crystal Palace average 1.63 xG a match.

Key players

Chelsea's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: João Pedro (0.56), Cole Palmer (0.47), Enzo Fernández (0.43). Crystal Palace's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Jean-Philippe Mateta (0.45), Ismaila Sarr (0.39), Yeremi Pino (0.30).

Availability

1 of Chelsea's top three contributors did not start their last match. 36% of Chelsea's last eleven are new to the club this window. 2 of Crystal Palace's top three contributors did not start their last match. 27% of Crystal Palace's last eleven are new to the club this window.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Chelsea: 55% possession, 13.0 shots a match, 11.4 faced, 0.22 xG a match from set pieces. Crystal Palace: 43% possession, 10.4 shots a match, 18.2 faced, 0.35 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-21 11:56 · team_stats 2026-10-20 06:04 · availability 2026-10-21 15:05 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Chelsea are the model's most likely outcome at 51.2%. The likeliest scoreline is 2-1 at 9.5%. Confidence 93/100, data quality 90/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Chelsea are finishing sharply above their chances — 6.5 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off.

DWLWWLDLWW last 10 scored 21 from 14.5 xG conceded 17 from 17.7 xG

Crystal Palace have scored 12 from 13.7 expected and conceded 24 from 23.5 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.

LDLLLWLDWL last 10 scored 12 from 13.7 xG conceded 24 from 23.5 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	532125	2.03–1.35	0%	0%	0%
dc-goals	592319	2.08–1.10	1-1 10%	62%	59%
dc-xg	562124	2.13–1.33	2-1 9%	67%	65%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chelsea to win	56.3%	54.0%	43.0%	1.26×	1.85
Crystal Palace to win	23.9%	24.4%	32.3%	0.76×	4.09
Draw	19.9%	19.4%	24.8%	0.78×	5.15

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chelsea & both teams score	35.2%	33.3%	22.9%	1.45×	3.01
Chelsea & not both score	21.1%	21.8%	20.1%	1.08×	4.59
Draw & both teams score	17.5%	18.0%	19.9%	0.90×	5.57
Crystal Palace & both teams score	16.0%	18.0%	15.3%	1.17×	5.57
Crystal Palace & not both score	7.8%	8.3%	17.1%	0.49×	12.01
Draw & not both score	2.4%	4.8%	5.0%	0.98×	20.62

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chelsea & over 1.5	50.8%	48.8%	36.6%	1.33×	2.05
Chelsea & over 2.5	44.5%	40.3%	30.3%	1.33×	2.48
Chelsea & over 3.5	30.7%	30.8%	16.5%	1.86×	3.25
Chelsea & under 3.5	25.6%	26.1%	26.6%	0.98×	3.84
Crystal Palace & over 1.5	20.4%	21.6%	25.3%	0.85×	4.63
Draw & over 1.5	17.5%	18.0%	19.9%	0.90×	5.56
Crystal Palace & over 2.5	17.9%	18.0%	19.8%	0.91×	5.56
Crystal Palace & under 3.5	13.0%	12.8%	21.9%	0.59×	7.79
Chelsea & under 2.5	11.7%	12.8%	12.8%	1.00×	7.79
Draw & under 2.5	10.3%	12.8%	16.3%	0.79×	7.79
Draw & under 3.5	10.3%	12.8%	16.3%	0.79×	7.79
Crystal Palace & over 3.5	10.9%	12.8%	10.6%	1.22×	7.79
Draw & over 2.5	9.5%	7.9%	8.6%	0.92×	12.63
Draw & over 3.5	9.5%	7.9%	8.6%	0.92×	12.63
Crystal Palace & under 2.5	6.0%	7.9%	12.6%	0.63×	12.63
Chelsea & under 1.5	5.5%	7.9%	6.4%	1.23×	12.63
Crystal Palace & under 1.5	3.5%	4.8%	7.1%	0.68×	20.82
Draw & under 1.5	2.4%	4.8%	5.0%	0.97×	20.82

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chelsea (1UP)	72.7%	75.5%	62.0%	1.22×	1.32
Crystal Palace (1UP)	46.2%	43.9%	51.5%	0.85×	2.28

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chelsea (2UP)	56.3%	55.0%	44.7%	1.23×	1.82
Crystal Palace (2UP)	23.9%	23.5%	34.5%	0.68×	4.26

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chelsea to win 2nd half	40.4%	41.8%	36.2%	1.15×	2.40
2nd half drawn	31.7%	34.3%	31.1%	1.10×	2.92
Crystal Palace to win 2nd half	27.9%	25.8%	32.8%	0.79×	3.88

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Crystal Palace under 1.5 in 2nd half	79.9%	79.2%	79.9%	0.99×	1.26
Crystal Palace over 0.5 in 2nd half	56.2%	54.5%	57.8%	0.94×	1.84
Crystal Palace under 0.5 in 2nd half	43.8%	45.5%	42.2%	1.08×	2.20
Crystal Palace over 1.5 in 2nd half	20.1%	20.8%	20.1%	1.03×	4.81

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chelsea under 1.5 in 2nd half	71.4%	73.9%	75.2%	0.98×	1.35
Chelsea over 0.5 in 2nd half	65.3%	70.6%	58.3%	1.21×	1.42
Chelsea under 0.5 in 2nd half	34.7%	29.4%	41.7%	0.71×	3.40
Chelsea over 1.5 in 2nd half	28.6%	26.1%	24.8%	1.05×	3.83

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Crystal Palace (+2.5)	81.6%	82.5%	89.1%	0.93×	1.21
Chelsea (+0.5)	76.1%	78.5%	67.7%	1.16×	1.27
Crystal Palace (+1.5)	64.9%	63.0%	76.0%	0.83×	1.59
Chelsea (-0.5)	56.3%	57.0%	43.0%	1.33×	1.75
Crystal Palace (+0.5)	43.7%	43.0%	57.0%	0.75×	2.33
Chelsea (-1.5)	35.1%	37.0%	24.0%	1.54×	2.70
Crystal Palace (-0.5)	23.9%	21.5%	32.3%	0.67×	4.65
Chelsea (-2.5)	18.4%	17.5%	10.9%	1.60×	5.72

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Crystal Palace to concede	89.8%	86.4%	78.1%	1.11×	1.16
Crystal Palace clean sheet	10.2%	13.6%	21.9%	0.62×	7.33

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Crystal Palace to concede in 1st half	70.5%	76.8%	51.2%	1.50×	1.30
Crystal Palace clean sheet in 1st half	29.5%	23.2%	48.8%	0.47×	4.32

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Crystal Palace to concede in 2nd half	65.3%	65.7%	58.3%	1.13×	1.52
Crystal Palace clean sheet in 2nd half	34.7%	34.3%	41.7%	0.82×	2.91

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Crystal Palace under 6.5 corners	92.1%	89.9%	—	—	1.11
Crystal Palace under 5.5 corners	85.3%	85.2%	—	—	1.17
Crystal Palace under 4.5 corners	74.6%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
Crystal Palace over 2.5 corners	60.1%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Crystal Palace under 3.5 corners	59.1%	57.2%	—	—	1.75
Crystal Palace over 3.5 corners	40.9%	42.8%	—	—	2.33
Crystal Palace under 2.5 corners	39.9%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Crystal Palace over 4.5 corners	25.4%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
Crystal Palace over 5.5 corners	14.7%	14.8%	—	—	6.77
Crystal Palace over 6.5 corners	7.9%	10.1%	—	—	9.90

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Crystal Palace under 3.5 goals	94.1%	92.3%	94.6%	0.98×	1.08
Crystal Palace under 2.5 goals	82.2%	81.5%	85.1%	0.96×	1.23
Crystal Palace over 0.5 goals	76.5%	76.3%	75.0%	1.02×	1.31
Crystal Palace under 1.5 goals	57.6%	59.4%	60.6%	0.98×	1.68
Crystal Palace over 1.5 goals	42.4%	40.6%	39.4%	1.03×	2.46
Crystal Palace under 0.5 goals	23.5%	23.8%	25.0%	0.95×	4.21
Crystal Palace over 2.5 goals	17.8%	18.5%	14.9%	1.24×	5.39
Crystal Palace over 3.5 goals	5.9%	7.7%	5.4%	1.43×	13.07

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Crystal Palace under 1.5 in 1st half	87.1%	89.3%	89.3%	1.00×	1.12
Crystal Palace under 0.5 in 1st half	53.8%	55.5%	59.7%	0.93×	1.80
Crystal Palace over 0.5 in 1st half	46.2%	44.5%	40.3%	1.10×	2.25
Crystal Palace over 1.5 in 1st half	12.9%	10.7%	10.7%	1.00×	9.34

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Crystal Palace scores more in 2nd half	37.5%	37.3%	40.8%	0.91×	2.68
Crystal Palace scores equally in both	37.2%	37.3%	37.5%	0.99×	2.68
Crystal Palace scores more in 1st half	25.3%	26.2%	21.7%	1.21×	3.82

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chelsea (away no bet)	73.9%	68.4%	63.5%	1.08×	1.46
Draw (away no bet)	26.1%	31.6%	36.5%	0.86×	3.17

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Crystal Palace even goals	52.8%	52.6%	53.5%	0.98×	1.90
Crystal Palace odd goals	47.2%	47.4%	46.5%	1.02×	2.11

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	69.1%	69.0%	80.0%	0.86×	1.45
Both halves over 1.5 goals	30.9%	31.0%	20.0%	1.55×	3.22

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	80.3%	78.1%	70.1%	1.11×	1.28
Both halves under 1.5 goals	19.7%	21.9%	29.9%	0.73×	4.57

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	72.4%	72.1%	61.6%	1.17×	1.39
Chelsea to score 2+ in a row	55.7%	55.1%	39.2%	1.41×	1.82
Either team to score 3+ in a row	33.6%	29.2%	26.1%	1.12×	3.42
Crystal Palace to score 2+ in a row	29.2%	25.2%	29.7%	0.85×	3.96
Chelsea to score 3+ in a row	26.3%	25.2%	16.4%	1.53×	3.97
Crystal Palace to score 3+ in a row	8.3%	5.6%	10.1%	0.56×	17.89

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chelsea corners (+3.5)	96.7%	95.7%	—	—	1.05
Chelsea corners (+2.5)	94.1%	89.6%	—	—	1.12
Chelsea corners (+1.5)	90.0%	89.6%	—	—	1.12
Chelsea corners (-1.5)	67.0%	65.9%	—	—	1.52
Chelsea corners (-2.5)	56.7%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Crystal Palace corners (+3.5)	53.7%	52.4%	—	—	1.91
Chelsea corners (-3.5)	46.3%	47.6%	—	—	2.10
Crystal Palace corners (+2.5)	43.3%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Crystal Palace corners (+1.5)	33.0%	34.1%	—	—	2.93
Crystal Palace corners (-1.5)	10.0%	10.4%	—	—	9.58
Crystal Palace corners (-2.5)	5.9%	10.4%	—	—	9.59
Crystal Palace corners (-3.5)	3.3%	4.3%	—	—	23.45

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	38.9%	34.0%	—	—	2.94
12+ corners	32.1%	33.2%	—	—	3.01
9-11 corners	29.1%	31.2%	—	—	3.21

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	75.6%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Over 7.5 corners	71.2%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Under 11.5 corners	67.9%	67.8%	—	—	1.48
Over 8.5 corners	61.1%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Under 10.5 corners	59.0%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Over 9.5 corners	50.9%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Under 9.5 corners	49.1%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Over 10.5 corners	41.0%	42.1%	—	—	2.37
Under 8.5 corners	38.9%	36.8%	—	—	2.72
Over 11.5 corners	32.1%	32.2%	—	—	3.11
Under 7.5 corners	28.8%	27.5%	—	—	3.64
Over 12.5 corners	24.4%	23.4%	—	—	4.27

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.1%	—	—	2.00
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.9%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-1	9.1%	7.4%	8.9%	0.83×	13.50
Any other score	9.6%	7.4%	4.4%	1.69×	13.50
1-1	7.9%	7.4%	11.4%	0.65×	13.50
2-2	6.6%	7.4%	7.7%	0.97×	13.51
3-1	6.9%	7.4%	5.4%	1.36×	13.51
1-0	5.5%	7.4%	6.4%	1.15×	13.51
1-2	5.7%	7.4%	6.8%	1.08×	13.51
2-0	6.3%	7.4%	6.4%	1.15×	13.51
3-0	4.8%	1.7%	5.0%	0.34×	58.29
3-2	5.0%	1.7%	3.1%	0.56×	58.29
0-0	2.4%	1.7%	5.0%	0.35×	58.31
0-1	3.5%	1.7%	7.1%	0.24×	58.30
0-2	2.5%	1.7%	5.6%	0.31×	58.30
0-3	1.2%	1.7%	2.6%	0.67×	58.31
0-4	0.4%	1.7%	1.1%	1.60×	58.32
1-3	2.8%	1.7%	3.1%	0.55×	58.30
1-4	1.0%	1.7%	1.4%	1.22×	58.31
2-3	3.2%	1.7%	2.5%	0.69×	58.30
2-4	1.1%	1.7%	0.7%	2.60×	58.31
3-3	2.4%	1.7%	0.7%	2.31×	58.31
3-4	0.9%	1.7%	0.5%	3.46×	58.31
4-0	2.7%	1.7%	1.3%	1.30×	58.30
4-1	3.9%	1.7%	2.3%	0.74×	58.30
4-2	2.8%	1.7%	1.3%	1.30×	58.30
4-3	1.4%	1.7%	0.9%	1.89×	58.31
4-4	0.5%	1.7%	0.3%	5.20×	58.32

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chelsea (2nd half DNB)	59.1%	59.7%	52.5%	1.14×	1.67
Crystal Palace (2nd half DNB)	40.9%	40.3%	47.5%	0.85×	2.48

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chelsea leading at HT (DNB)	72.9%	73.9%	59.8%	1.24×	1.35
Crystal Palace leading at HT (DNB)	27.1%	26.1%	40.2%	0.65×	3.84

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chelsea or Crystal Palace (12)	80.1%	80.6%	75.2%	1.07×	1.24
Chelsea or draw (1X)	76.1%	75.6%	67.7%	1.12×	1.32
Crystal Palace or draw (X2)	43.7%	46.0%	57.0%	0.81×	2.17

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chelsea or draw at HT	81.1%	84.2%	75.7%	1.11×	1.19
Chelsea or Crystal Palace at HT	69.6%	66.7%	60.2%	1.11×	1.50
Crystal Palace or draw at HT	49.2%	53.1%	63.9%	0.83×	1.88

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chelsea or draw (1UP)	76.1%	84.0%	74.3%	1.13×	1.19
Crystal Palace or draw (1UP)	46.2%	53.1%	65.3%	0.81×	1.88

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chelsea or draw in 2nd half	72.1%	74.2%	67.2%	1.10×	1.35
Chelsea or Crystal Palace in 2nd half	68.3%	65.7%	68.9%	0.95×	1.52
Crystal Palace or draw in 2nd half	59.6%	58.2%	63.8%	0.91×	1.72

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half drawn	47.6%	50.0%	42.9%	1.17×	2.00
A half drawn	52.4%	50.0%	57.1%	0.88×	2.00

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chelsea (DNB)	70.2%	71.4%	57.1%	1.25×	1.40
Crystal Palace (DNB)	29.8%	28.6%	42.9%	0.67×	3.50

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chelsea to score first	59.7%	62.3%	51.8%	1.20×	1.61
Crystal Palace to score first	37.9%	32.8%	43.3%	0.76×	3.05
No goal scored	2.4%	4.2%	5.0%	0.86×	23.55

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	68.7%	58.5%	58.0%	1.01×	1.71
Not both teams to score	31.3%	41.5%	42.0%	0.99×	2.41

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	60.7%	50.4%	46.7%	1.08×	1.99
Not both score & under 2.5	20.2%	27.7%	30.2%	0.92×	3.61
Not both score & over 2.5	11.2%	12.4%	11.9%	1.04×	8.10
Both score & under 2.5	7.9%	8.3%	11.4%	0.73×	12.06

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	71.8%	80.5%	82.1%	0.98×	1.24
Both teams to score 2+	28.2%	19.5%	17.9%	1.09×	5.12

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	63.3%	65.7%	68.6%	0.96×	1.52
Both teams to score in 2nd half	36.7%	34.3%	31.4%	1.09×	2.92

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	42.6%	50.4%	55.9%	0.90×	1.98
Both score 2nd half only	24.8%	21.2%	24.7%	0.86×	4.73
Both score 1st half only	20.6%	21.0%	12.8%	1.64×	4.76
Both score in both halves	12.0%	10.7%	6.8%	1.56×	9.37

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	67.4%	70.6%	80.4%	0.88×	1.42
Both teams to score by HT	32.6%	29.4%	19.6%	1.50×	3.40

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	71.4%	74.0%	61.6%	1.20×	1.35
A half without a goal	28.6%	26.0%	38.4%	0.68×	3.85

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
4-6 goals	42.7%	42.1%	32.8%	1.29×	2.37
2-3 goals	37.5%	35.1%	46.3%	0.76×	2.85
0-1 goals	11.4%	16.9%	18.3%	0.92×	5.92
7+ goals	8.4%	7.6%	2.8%	2.72×	13.10

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Crystal Palace to score exactly 1	34.0%	33.8%	35.7%	0.95×	2.96
Crystal Palace to score exactly 2	24.6%	22.3%	24.5%	0.91×	4.48
Crystal Palace to score exactly 0	23.5%	22.3%	25.0%	0.89×	4.48
Crystal Palace to score 3+	17.8%	19.6%	14.9%	1.31×	5.11

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chelsea to score 3+	39.8%	35.6%	22.9%	1.55×	2.81
Chelsea to score exactly 2	26.6%	26.5%	26.1%	1.02×	3.77
Chelsea to score exactly 1	23.3%	23.3%	29.2%	0.80×	4.29
Chelsea to score exactly 0	10.2%	14.3%	21.9%	0.65×	7.00

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chelsea leading at HT	50.8%	46.9%	36.1%	1.30×	2.13
Draw at HT	30.4%	33.3%	39.8%	0.84×	3.01
Crystal Palace leading at HT	18.9%	15.8%	24.3%	0.65×	6.33

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chelsea -1: 2	43.7%	42.8%	—	—	2.34
Chelsea -1: 1	35.1%	37.3%	—	—	2.68
Chelsea -1: X	21.1%	23.5%	—	—	4.26

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Crystal Palace (0:1)	43.7%	42.7%	57.0%	0.75×	2.34
Chelsea (0:1)	35.1%	37.3%	24.0%	1.55×	2.68
Draw (0:1)	21.1%	24.2%	19.1%	1.27×	4.13

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Crystal Palace (0:2)	64.9%	67.2%	76.0%	0.88×	1.49
Chelsea (0:2)	18.4%	15.3%	10.9%	1.40×	6.54
Draw (0:2)	16.7%	15.3%	13.2%	1.16×	6.54

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Crystal Palace (0:3)	81.6%	85.3%	89.1%	0.96×	1.17
Draw (0:3)	10.2%	9.9%	7.6%	1.31×	10.09
Chelsea (0:3)	8.2%	5.8%	3.4%	1.72×	17.20

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Crystal Palace (0:4)	91.8%	94.5%	96.6%	0.98×	1.06
Draw (0:4)	5.1%	4.6%	2.1%	2.22×	21.82
Chelsea (0:4)	3.1%	1.2%	1.4%	0.87×	81.76

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chelsea (1:0)	76.1%	78.6%	67.7%	1.16×	1.27
Draw (1:0)	13.4%	12.7%	16.7%	0.76×	7.87
Crystal Palace (1:0)	10.4%	12.7%	15.7%	0.81×	7.88

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chelsea (2:0)	89.6%	88.5%	84.3%	1.05×	1.13
Draw (2:0)	6.7%	6.4%	9.2%	0.69×	15.69
Crystal Palace (2:0)	3.7%	2.3%	6.5%	0.35×	43.60

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	40.1%	44.3%	49.6%	0.89×	2.26
1st half highest scoring	38.3%	38.3%	25.8%	1.48×	2.61
Halves equal	21.5%	24.3%	24.7%	0.99×	4.11

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chelsea to concede	76.5%	76.1%	75.0%	1.01×	1.32
Chelsea clean sheet	23.5%	23.9%	25.0%	0.96×	4.18

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chelsea clean sheet in 1st half	53.8%	55.5%	59.7%	0.93×	1.80
Chelsea to concede in 1st half	46.2%	44.5%	40.3%	1.10×	2.25

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chelsea to concede in 2nd half	56.2%	54.8%	57.8%	0.95×	1.83
Chelsea clean sheet in 2nd half	43.8%	45.2%	42.2%	1.07×	2.21

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chelsea over 2.5 corners	91.2%	89.2%	—	—	1.12
Chelsea over 3.5 corners	82.5%	81.0%	—	—	1.24
Chelsea over 4.5 corners	71.5%	71.8%	—	—	1.39
Chelsea over 5.5 corners	59.2%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Chelsea under 6.5 corners	53.0%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
Chelsea over 6.5 corners	47.0%	47.4%	—	—	2.11
Chelsea under 5.5 corners	40.8%	42.5%	—	—	2.35
Chelsea under 4.5 corners	28.5%	28.2%	—	—	3.55
Chelsea under 3.5 corners	17.5%	19.0%	—	—	5.25
Chelsea under 2.5 corners	8.8%	10.8%	—	—	9.27

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chelsea over 0.5 goals	89.8%	87.3%	78.1%	1.12×	1.15
Chelsea under 3.5 goals	80.4%	82.2%	91.5%	0.90×	1.22
Chelsea over 1.5 goals	66.4%	68.0%	48.9%	1.39×	1.47
Chelsea under 2.5 goals	60.2%	63.6%	77.1%	0.82×	1.57
Chelsea over 2.5 goals	39.8%	36.4%	22.9%	1.59×	2.74
Chelsea under 1.5 goals	33.6%	32.0%	51.1%	0.63×	3.12
Chelsea over 3.5 goals	19.6%	17.8%	8.5%	2.10×	5.62
Chelsea under 0.5 goals	10.2%	12.7%	21.9%	0.58×	7.86

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chelsea over 0.5 in 1st half	70.5%	78.8%	51.2%	1.54×	1.27
Chelsea under 1.5 in 1st half	65.5%	68.6%	84.4%	0.81×	1.46
Chelsea over 1.5 in 1st half	34.5%	31.4%	15.6%	2.01×	3.19
Chelsea under 0.5 in 1st half	29.5%	21.2%	48.8%	0.43×	4.72

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chelsea scores more in 1st half	39.8%	38.0%	26.3%	1.44×	2.64
Chelsea scores more in 2nd half	31.8%	32.9%	36.1%	0.91×	3.04
Chelsea scores equally in both	28.4%	27.8%	37.7%	0.74×	3.59

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Crystal Palace (home no bet)	54.6%	51.4%	56.6%	0.91×	1.95
Draw (home no bet)	45.4%	48.6%	43.4%	1.12×	2.06

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chelsea even goals	50.5%	50.7%	54.0%	0.94×	1.97
Chelsea odd goals	49.5%	49.3%	46.0%	1.07×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 1-0	19.4%	18.6%	21.5%	0.86×	5.37
HT 0-0	15.9%	18.6%	28.1%	0.66×	5.39
Any other HT score	14.7%	11.0%	5.4%	2.03×	9.05
HT 1-1	12.0%	11.0%	10.8%	1.02×	9.08
HT 2-0	11.8%	11.0%	8.0%	1.38×	9.08
HT 0-1	9.8%	6.9%	14.8%	0.47×	14.45
HT 2-1	7.3%	6.9%	3.7%	1.86×	14.49
HT 1-2	3.7%	2.4%	2.9%	0.82×	42.03
HT 0-2	3.1%	2.4%	4.4%	0.54×	42.08
HT 2-2	2.3%	2.4%	1.0%	2.40×	42.13

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chelsea at HT / Chelsea at FT	41.5%	41.0%	26.4%	1.55×	2.44
Crystal Palace at HT / Crystal Palace at FT	12.5%	12.6%	16.7%	0.75×	7.91
Draw at HT / Chelsea at FT	12.3%	12.6%	13.9%	0.91×	7.91
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	9.6%	6.0%	13.8%	0.44×	16.56
Draw at HT / Crystal Palace at FT	8.5%	6.0%	12.3%	0.49×	16.59
Chelsea at HT / Draw at FT	6.4%	6.0%	6.4%	0.95×	16.65
Crystal Palace at HT / Draw at FT	3.9%	3.5%	4.8%	0.73×	28.62
Chelsea at HT / Crystal Palace at FT	2.9%	3.5%	3.5%	1.01×	28.66
Crystal Palace at HT / Chelsea at FT	2.5%	3.5%	2.9%	1.21×	28.67

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chelsea to score last	59.7%	56.6%	50.1%	1.13×	1.77
Crystal Palace to score last	37.9%	38.7%	45.1%	0.86×	2.59
No goal scored	2.4%	4.2%	5.0%	0.86×	23.55

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	97.6%	95.7%	95.1%	1.01×	1.05
Chelsea to lead by 1 at any time	72.7%	74.2%	62.0%	1.20×	1.35
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	61.5%	61.3%	50.6%	1.21×	1.63
Crystal Palace to lead by 1 at any time	46.2%	44.5%	51.5%	0.86×	2.25
Chelsea to lead by 2 at any time	44.4%	39.2%	29.9%	1.31×	2.55
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	28.5%	25.5%	21.2%	1.20×	3.91
Chelsea to lead by 3 at any time	22.7%	19.7%	13.2%	1.49×	5.09
Crystal Palace to lead by 2 at any time	17.9%	15.0%	21.0%	0.71×	6.69
Crystal Palace to lead by 3 at any time	5.8%	6.7%	8.1%	0.83×	14.98

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chelsea most corners	76.4%	74.3%	—	—	1.35
Crystal Palace most corners	15.9%	19.2%	—	—	5.22
Corners level	7.8%	8.4%	—	—	11.98

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	80.2%	83.4%	88.4%	0.94×	1.20
2-6 goals	80.2%	83.4%	79.0%	1.06×	1.20
2-5 goals	71.3%	72.4%	75.1%	0.96×	1.38
1-4 goals	65.8%	68.8%	77.9%	0.88×	1.45
3-6 goals	63.5%	63.3%	55.8%	1.14×	1.58
2-4 goals	56.8%	59.1%	64.5%	0.92×	1.69
3-5 goals	54.6%	53.2%	51.9%	1.02×	1.88
1-3 goals	46.5%	48.5%	59.7%	0.81×	2.06
4-6 goals	42.7%	43.6%	32.8%	1.33×	2.29
3-4 goals	40.1%	43.6%	41.3%	1.05×	2.30
2-3 goals	37.5%	39.2%	46.3%	0.85×	2.55
4-5 goals	33.8%	35.2%	28.9%	1.22×	2.84
1-2 goals	25.7%	30.2%	36.6%	0.83×	3.31
5-6 goals	23.4%	24.5%	14.5%	1.69×	4.08
7+ goals	8.4%	8.9%	2.8%	3.17×	11.26

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chelsea never behind	51.4%	62.4%	48.5%	1.29×	1.60
Crystal Palace never behind	24.9%	24.8%	38.0%	0.65×	4.03

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	50.0%	50.9%	49.2%	1.04×	1.96
Even number of goals	50.0%	49.1%	50.8%	0.97×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	51.3%	51.6%	53.5%	0.97×	1.94
Odd goals in 1st half	48.7%	48.4%	46.5%	1.04×	2.07

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	51.2%	51.9%	51.9%	1.00×	1.93
Odd goals in 2nd half	48.8%	48.1%	48.1%	1.00×	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	97.6%	95.4%	95.1%	1.00×	1.05
Over 1.5 goals	88.6%	87.6%	81.7%	1.07×	1.14
Under 5.5 goals	82.7%	82.3%	93.3%	0.88×	1.22
Over 2.5 goals	71.9%	72.5%	58.5%	1.24×	1.38
Under 4.5 goals	68.2%	66.3%	82.8%	0.80×	1.51
Over 3.5 goals	51.1%	52.5%	35.5%	1.48×	1.91
Under 3.5 goals	48.9%	47.5%	64.5%	0.74×	2.11
Over 4.5 goals	31.8%	33.7%	17.2%	1.95×	2.97
Under 2.5 goals	28.1%	27.5%	41.5%	0.66×	3.63
Over 5.5 goals	17.3%	17.7%	6.7%	2.65×	5.65
Under 1.5 goals	11.4%	12.4%	18.3%	0.68×	8.07
Under 0.5 goals	2.4%	4.6%	5.0%	0.92×	21.88

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	90.8%	92.4%	97.1%	0.95×	1.08
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	86.3%	86.7%	76.2%	1.14×	1.15
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	79.7%	75.9%	92.5%	0.82×	1.32
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	64.5%	61.9%	46.1%	1.34×	1.62
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	60.6%	61.9%	78.9%	0.78×	1.62
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	39.4%	38.1%	21.1%	1.81×	2.62
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	35.5%	38.1%	53.9%	0.71×	2.63
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	20.3%	24.1%	7.5%	3.22×	4.15
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	13.7%	13.3%	23.8%	0.56×	7.53
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	9.2%	7.6%	2.9%	2.61×	13.14

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 1st half	84.1%	85.9%	71.9%	1.19×	1.17
Under 2.5 in 1st half	72.0%	71.8%	87.2%	0.82×	1.39
Over 1.5 in 1st half	54.9%	55.5%	35.7%	1.55×	1.80
Under 1.5 in 1st half	45.1%	44.5%	64.3%	0.69×	2.25
Over 2.5 in 1st half	28.0%	28.2%	12.8%	2.20×	3.55
Under 0.5 in 1st half	15.9%	14.1%	28.1%	0.50×	7.08

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	84.8%	83.3%	84.7%	0.98×	1.20
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	70.8%	77.3%	75.7%	1.02×	1.29
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	56.2%	54.9%	54.4%	1.01×	1.82
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	43.8%	45.1%	45.6%	0.99×	2.22
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	29.2%	22.7%	24.3%	0.94×	4.41
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	15.2%	16.7%	15.3%	1.10×	5.97

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Crystal Palace not to score in both halves	74.0%	74.0%	76.9%	0.96×	1.35
Chelsea not to score in both halves	53.9%	55.5%	68.6%	0.81×	1.80
Chelsea to score in both halves	46.1%	44.5%	31.4%	1.41×	2.25
Crystal Palace to score in both halves	26.0%	26.0%	23.1%	1.13×	3.84

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	68.7%	60.0%	58.0%	1.03×	1.67
Only Chelsea scores	21.1%	22.2%	20.1%	1.10×	4.50
Only Crystal Palace scores	7.8%	7.1%	17.1%	0.42×	14.04
Neither team scores	2.4%	4.6%	5.0%	0.93×	21.74

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 3 goals	20.8%	22.6%	23.1%	0.98×	4.43
Exactly 4 goals	19.4%	17.5%	18.3%	0.95×	5.73
6 or more goals	17.3%	17.5%	6.7%	2.61×	5.73
Exactly 2 goals	16.7%	17.5%	23.3%	0.75×	5.73
Exactly 5 goals	14.4%	12.1%	10.6%	1.14×	8.24
Exactly 1 goals	9.0%	7.6%	13.4%	0.57×	13.13
Exactly 0 goals	2.4%	4.5%	5.0%	0.90×	22.40

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 1st half	29.2%	28.3%	36.2%	0.78×	3.53
3+ goals in 1st half	28.0%	28.3%	12.8%	2.21×	3.54
2 goals in 1st half	26.9%	28.2%	23.0%	1.23×	3.54
No goals in 1st half	15.9%	15.6%	28.1%	0.55×	6.41

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	56.2%	54.1%	54.4%	0.99×	1.85
1 goal in 2nd half	28.6%	29.3%	30.4%	0.96×	3.41
No goals in 2nd half	15.2%	16.4%	15.3%	1.07×	6.11

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Crystal Palace not to win both halves	94.7%	94.2%	91.3%	1.03×	1.06
Chelsea not to win both halves	79.5%	75.7%	86.4%	0.88×	1.32
Chelsea to win both halves	20.5%	24.3%	13.6%	1.79×	4.11
Crystal Palace to win both halves	5.3%	5.8%	8.7%	0.67×	17.14

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chelsea to win either half	70.7%	72.9%	58.7%	1.24×	1.37
Crystal Palace to win neither half	58.5%	59.1%	51.7%	1.14×	1.69
Crystal Palace to win either half	41.5%	40.9%	48.4%	0.85×	2.45
Chelsea to win neither half	29.3%	27.1%	41.3%	0.66×	3.69

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Crystal Palace not to win to nil	92.2%	92.1%	82.9%	1.11×	1.09
Chelsea not to win to nil	78.9%	78.1%	79.9%	0.98×	1.28
Chelsea to win to nil	21.1%	21.9%	20.1%	1.09×	4.57
Crystal Palace to win to nil	7.8%	7.9%	17.1%	0.46×	12.65

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chelsea by 1	21.1%	24.1%	19.1%	1.26×	4.15
Draw	19.9%	17.1%	24.8%	0.69×	5.86
Chelsea by 3+	18.4%	17.1%	10.9%	1.57×	5.87
Chelsea by 2	16.7%	17.0%	13.2%	1.29×	5.87
Crystal Palace by 1	13.4%	11.8%	16.7%	0.70×	8.51
Crystal Palace by 2	6.7%	7.2%	9.2%	0.78×	13.91
Crystal Palace by 3+	3.7%	2.7%	6.5%	0.42×	36.79