Chelsea v Leeds United — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Tuesday 10 February 2026 · ENG-Premier League · 2526
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
19 – 4
On target
4 – 2
Shots in box
14 – 2
xG per shot
0.17 – 0.32
Set-piece xG
1.48 – 0.77
Goals − xG
-1.22 – +0.71
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Chelsea win
58.2%
Draw
23.6%
Leeds United win
18.2%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Chelsea are finishing sharply above their chances — 5.6 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off.
WLWWLDLWWL last 10
scored 20
from 14.4 xG
conceded 18
from 18.0 xG
Leeds United are finishing below their chances — 3.4 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 6.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DWLWDDWDLD last 10
scored 11
from 14.4 xG
conceded 10
from 16.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 2.05–1.09 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.05–1.41 | 2-1 9% | 67% | 66% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Chelsea 3.22 xGLeeds United 1.29 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Chelsea attacking right
Leeds United attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11' |
 Leeds United |
James Justin | 0.01 | Set Piece | — | Blocked Shot | Ilia Gruev |
| 18' |
 Chelsea |
Cole Palmer | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Enzo Fernández |
| 18' |
Chelsea |
Enzo Fernández | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Marc Cucurella |
| 20' |
Chelsea |
João Pedro | 0.10 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Enzo Fernández |
| 22' |
Chelsea |
Enzo Fernández | 0.06 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 23' |
Chelsea |
João Pedro | 0.39 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Cole Palmer |
| 26' |
Chelsea |
Cole Palmer | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Enzo Fernández |
| 33' |
Chelsea |
João Pedro | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Enzo Fernández |
| 41' |
Chelsea |
Estêvão | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | João Pedro |
| 50' |
Chelsea |
Estêvão | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Cole Palmer |
| 53' |
Chelsea |
Cole Palmer | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Malo Gusto |
| 57' |
Chelsea |
Cole Palmer | 0.76 | Left Foot | Goal | — | |
| 60' |
Chelsea |
Enzo Fernández | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 60' |
Chelsea |
João Pedro | 0.08 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Estêvão |
| 60' |
Chelsea |
Malo Gusto | 0.06 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 66' |
Leeds United |
Lukas Nmecha | 0.76 | Right Foot | Goal | — | |
| 72' |
Leeds United |
Noah Okafor | 0.50 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Lukas Nmecha |
| 80' |
Chelsea |
Liam Delap | 0.12 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Enzo Fernández |
| 84' |
Leeds United |
Brenden Aaronson | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 87' |
Chelsea |
João Pedro | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Cole Palmer |
| 90' |
Chelsea |
João Pedro | 0.11 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Pedro Neto |
| 91' |
Chelsea |
João Pedro | 0.30 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Jorrel Hato |
| 93' |
Chelsea |
Cole Palmer | 0.67 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Moisés Caicedo |
Players
Chelsea
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cole Palmer AMC | 90 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 1.57 | 0.58 | 1.55 |
| João Pedro FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 1.17 | 0.07 | 0.79 |
| Enzo Fernández AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 0.14 | 0.36 | 0.76 |
| Malo Gusto DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.09 | 0.88 |
| Trevoh Chalobah DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.47 |
| Robert Sánchez GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Moisés Caicedo DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.67 | 1.05 |
| Andrey Santos DMC | 82 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.52 |
| Josh Acheampong DC | 82 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.59 |
| Estêvão AMR | 67 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.16 | 0.08 | 0.27 |
| Marc Cucurella DL | 49 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.11 |
| Jorrel Hato Sub | 41 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.30 | 0.00 |
| Pedro Neto Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Liam Delap Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Wesley Fofana Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Leeds United
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brenden Aaronson ML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| James Justin DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Karl Darlow GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Joe Rodon DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jayden Bogle MR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.50 |
| Jaka Bijol DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ilia Gruev MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| Gabriel Gudmundsson DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ethan Ampadu MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Lukas Nmecha FW | 85 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.76 | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| Sebastiaan Bornauw DC | 58 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Noah Okafor Sub | 32 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.50 | 0.00 | 0.50 |
| Daniel James Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Sean Longstaff Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |